Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Industry Allocation Model Based on Profit Growth Rate **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses profit growth rate as the primary criterion for industry selection, supplemented by valuation and trading crowding metrics as risk indicators[7][27][29] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Profit Growth Metrics**: - Single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate - Marginal change in single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate Formula for marginal change: $ \text{Marginal Change} = \text{2025 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} - \text{2024 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} $[15][29] 2. **Valuation Metric**: - Historical PE_TTM percentile (2020 to present) is used to measure valuation levels across industries[18][21][29] 3. **Trading Crowding Metric**: - Standard deviation of turnover rate over the past three months is calculated to assess trading crowding[6][24][29] 4. **Comprehensive Scoring**: - Each metric is ranked, and weights are assigned: - Profit growth metrics: 0.3 each - Risk metrics (valuation and trading crowding): 0.2 each Formula for comprehensive scoring: $ \text{Comprehensive Score} = 0.3 \times \text{Net Profit YoY Growth} + 0.3 \times \text{Marginal Change} + 0.2 \times \text{Valuation Percentile} + 0.2 \times \text{Turnover Rate Std Dev} $[31][32] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies industries with high profit growth and moderate risk levels, providing actionable allocation recommendations[7][27][32] Model Backtesting Results - **Industry Allocation Model**: - Portfolio return: 2.38% - Benchmark (Wind All A Index) return: 0.63% - Excess return: 1.75%[7][32] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Profit Growth Rate **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures industry profitability through single-quarter net profit growth and marginal changes in growth rates[7][29] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate 2. Marginal change in single-quarter net profit year-on-year growth rate Formula: $ \text{Marginal Change} = \text{2025 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} - \text{2024 Q3 Single-quarter YoY Growth} $[15][29] **Factor Evaluation**: Effectively captures industries with strong profitability and growth momentum[7][29] - **Factor Name**: Valuation Percentile **Factor Construction Idea**: Uses historical PE_TTM percentiles to compare valuation levels across industries[18][21] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PE_TTM for each industry 2. Determine historical percentile (2020 to present) for PE_TTM values[18][21] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a standardized comparison of valuation levels across industries, mitigating biases from absolute PE differences[21][29] - **Factor Name**: Turnover Rate Standard Deviation **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures trading crowding by assessing the volatility of turnover rates over the past three months[6][24] **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate daily turnover rates for each industry over the past three months 2. Compute standard deviation of turnover rates[6][24] **Factor Evaluation**: Identifies industries with extreme trading behaviors, serving as a risk indicator[6][24] Factor Backtesting Results - **Profit Growth Rate Factor**: - Steel: 203.31% YoY growth, 380.75% marginal change[10][15] - Electronics: 57.42% YoY growth, 59.99% marginal change[10][15] - Media: 58.63% YoY growth, 82.75% marginal change[10][15] - Defense: 29.52% YoY growth, 83.60% marginal change[10][15] - Utilities: 17.77% YoY growth, 19.81% marginal change[10][15] - **Valuation Percentile Factor**: - Steel: 99.72%[21][29] - Electronics: 98.94%[21][29] - Media: 90.40%[21][29] - Defense: 97.10%[21][29] - Utilities: 55.31%[21][29] - **Turnover Rate Standard Deviation Factor**: - Steel: 50.48%[6][29] - Electronics: 96.51%[6][29] - Media: 84.50%[6][29] - Defense: 82.79%[6][29] - Utilities: 25.21%[6][29]

Group 1: Commodity and Technology Markets - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of platinum and palladium futures and options at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, ensuring a smooth launch and stable operation [1] - Omdia's research indicates that global tablet shipments are expected to reach 40 million units in Q3 2025, marking a 5% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand in the Middle East and Central Europe [1] - CINNO Research reports a general decline in demand for LCD TV panels in November, with significant price drops expected for large-size panels, particularly a $10 decrease for 98"/100" panels [1] Group 2: Smartphone and Consumer Behavior - IDC's report shows that China's smartphone shipments in Q3 2025 are approximately 68.46 million units, reflecting a 0.5% year-on-year decline, continuing a downward trend [2] - A report on Z generation consumer behavior during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival reveals that about 40% of young people plan to increase their spending budget for 2025 [2] Group 3: Automotive and New Energy - The auction volume of second-hand new energy vehicles in China has increased by 52.6% in the first three quarters of the year, with total transaction value expected to exceed 10 billion yuan [3] - The auction model is facilitating the flow of second-hand vehicles from oversupplied first- and second-tier cities to demand-rich third- and fourth-tier cities [3] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk's 10-year compensation plan has been approved, potentially allowing him to earn nearly $1 trillion in stock if he meets stringent performance targets [4] - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman announced that GPT-6 is expected to achieve a "qualitative leap" compared to previous models [4] Group 5: Market and Regulatory Updates - The China Consumers Association has highlighted quality issues with trendy toy products, leading to increased consumer complaints regarding product defects and poor after-sales service [5] - Several companies, including Shanghai Xiba and Bayi Steel, are facing regulatory scrutiny for suspected violations related to information disclosure and short-term trading [5][5]

【导读】来自瑞银的数据显示，三季度外国投资者进一步增持中国股票 11月7日，港股三大指数集体下跌。其中，恒生指数收跌0.92%，报26241.83点；恒生科技指数下跌 1.80%，报5837.36点；恒生中国企业指数下跌0.94%，报9267.56点。 全日大市成交额为2096.44亿港元，较前一交易日的2346.53亿港元有所萎缩，南向资金净买入75.23亿港 元。 行业方面，传媒、医药生物、半导体、汽车行业等跌幅靠前。 部分黄金股逆市上涨 11月7日，部分黄金股逆市上涨。例如，珠峰黄金大涨5.76%、周六福涨5.44%，万国黄金集团涨 2.86%。不过，也有黄金股下挫。例如，大唐黄金大跌7.02%，周生生跌3.51%，周大福跌2.33%，老铺 黄金跌2.94%。 消息面上，美国就业形势严峻引发降息预期升温。芝商所FedWatch工具显示，美联储12月再度降息的 可能性超过70%。 消息面上，近日，泡泡玛特某平台官方直播间在推广产品时，两名现场工作人员的私下对话被直播间收 录，引发讨论。相关词条登上了热搜第一。网传消息称，涉事的两位工作人员已经被开除，连带相关部 门也被追责。 不过，据智通财经报道，11月7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall revenue of A-shares is expected to improve, with a year-on-year increase of 1.16% in Q3 2025, and net profit growth rebounding to 5.34% compared to Q2 2025, indicating a recovery in performance across the market [1][2]. Group 1: A-share Performance - In Q3 2025, the overall revenue of A-shares increased by 1.16% year-on-year, showing significant improvement compared to Q2 [1]. - The net profit growth rate for the parent company rose to 5.34%, an increase of 2.88 percentage points from Q2 [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) for A-shares in Q3 was 7.95%, up 0.22 percentage points from Q2, driven by improvements in net profit margin and equity multiplier [1]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The performance of 30 first-level industries showed significant structural differentiation, with the highest net profit growth in industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, electronics, and media [2]. - The cyclical sectors displayed a "price drop, stable volume" pattern, with some industries like steel showing significant improvement in profit margins, while others like coal and petrochemicals faced declines [2][3]. - The technology sector remains a key driver of profit growth, with net profit growth rates for electronics, communications, and media at 38.3%, 8.8%, and 37.4% respectively [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The current investment focus may shift towards "anti-involution" strategies in upstream industries and the expansion of technology applications, with short-term attention on consumption-boosting policies leading to structural rebounds [5]. - Key investment themes include strengthening the technology sector, particularly in AI applications and terminal directions, and focusing on high-growth upstream sectors that are currently undervalued [5]. - There is potential for brokerage firms to benefit from market recovery and policy support, presenting a phase-specific investment opportunity [5].

证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 7 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 A 股全天震荡走强，沪指重回 4000 点 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4007.76 | 0.97% | 38.51 | | | 深证成指 | 13452.42 | 1.73% | 228.86 | | | 沪深 300 | 4693.40 | 1.43% | 66.15 | | | 创业板 | 3224.62 | 1.84% | 58.39 | | | 科创 50 | 1436.86 | 3.34% | 46.46 | | | 北证 50 | 1519.81 | -0.38% | -5.75 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 3.05% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Report's Core View - The convertible bond market showed an incremental increase and valuation lift on November 6, 2025. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.53% compared to the previous day, and the trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up. The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - priced bonds rose. The valuation of convertible bonds also increased. In the industry, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices rose, with different performance among various industries [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 488.77, up 0.53% daily, 0.02% weekly, 1.37% monthly, and 17.90% since the beginning of 2025. Other convertible bond - related indices also showed varying degrees of increase. Among the A - share indices, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.84%, etc. In terms of market style, mid - cap value was relatively dominant, with the mid - cap value index rising 2.10% [2][8][9]. 2. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 78.222 billion yuan, a 12.51% increase compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.075904 trillion yuan, a 9.58% increase. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 3.798 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 1.36bp to 1.81% [2]. 3. Convertible Bond Valuation - The 100 - par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 31.46%, up 0.02pct compared to the previous day, at the 99.30% quantile since 2019. The overall weighted average par value was 104.03 yuan, up 0.49%. The price median was 132.88 yuan, up 0.25%, also at the 99.30% quantile since 2019. The conversion premium rates of different types of convertible bonds (such as equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced) all increased [3][18][22]. 4. Industry Rotation - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were non - ferrous metals (+3.05%), electronics (+3.00%), and communication (+2.37%); the top three falling industries were media (-1.35%), social services (-1.10%), and commercial and retail (-1.04%). In the convertible bond market, the top three rising industries were national defense and military industry (+3.36%), steel (+2.34%), and automobile (+2.28%); the top three falling industries were media (-0.33%), textile and apparel (-0.29%), and household appliances (-0.23%) [4][56].

Group 1 - The company announced a cash dividend of 0.02 yuan per share (including tax) for the first half of 2025 [2] - The record date for the dividend is set for November 12, 2025 [2] - The ex-dividend date and the date of cash dividend distribution are both scheduled for November 13, 2025 [2]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is entering a new profit cycle, with the profit structure shifting from upstream resource dominance to a dual drive of technology and overseas expansion, currently with a profit share exceeding 30% [10][12][21] - The technology and overseas expansion sectors are expected to continue rising, potentially reaching a profit share of 60% in the next 5-8 years, marking them as the core fundamental themes of this economic phase [2][3][10] - The report highlights that the rise of technology and overseas expansion will significantly impact the A-share profit cycle, with a breakthrough of 50% in their profit share likely to usher in a new upward cycle for A-shares [3][10][12] Group 2 - The analysis of the Q3 financial reports indicates that the bottom of the A-share profit growth has gradually become clear, with profit growth rates for the entire A-share market and non-financial sectors showing slight increases compared to H1 2025 [7][28] - The report identifies AI industry chains, overseas expansion, and rising resource prices as the core themes driving profitability, with notable growth in sectors such as electronics and communication equipment [8][37] - The report emphasizes that companies with a higher proportion of overseas business revenue have significantly better revenue and profit growth compared to domestic demand-driven companies, with ROE levels also showing continuous improvement [23][25][28]

Company News - BeiGene reported total revenue of approximately $3.845 billion for the first nine months, a year-on-year increase of 43%. Adjusted net profit was approximately $693 million, marking a return to profitability. In Q3, revenue reached $1.412 billion, up 41% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit of approximately $304 million, a 489% increase year-on-year. The growth is primarily attributed to the sales increase of BeiYueZe® in the US and Europe, with the US remaining the largest market for the company. The full-year revenue guidance is set at $5.1 billion to $5.3 billion, reflecting strong growth expectations from BeiYueZe® in the US and continued expansion in Europe and other key global markets [2] - Yidu International Holdings announced an earnings upgrade, expecting a profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 1.2 billion for the first half, representing an increase year-on-year [3] - Hua Hong Semiconductor reported sales revenue of $635 million for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%. However, net profit decreased by 42.6% to $25.725 million [4] - Autohome's net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was approximately RMB 436.6 million, with online marketing and other business revenues increasing by 32.1% year-on-year [5] - Xinyi International reported a cumulative net operating income of approximately HKD 13.981 billion for the first ten months, a year-on-year decrease of about 5.3%, with October revenue at HKD 1.457 billion [6] - Dongfeng Motor Group's cumulative vehicle sales for the first ten months reached 1.501 million units, a year-on-year decline of approximately 1.6%. However, sales of new energy vehicles increased by approximately 37.1% to 421,400 units [7] - China Overseas Land & Investment reported a cumulative contracted property sales amount of approximately RMB 189.165 billion for the first ten months, a year-on-year decrease of 21.3% [8] - Poly Property Group reported a cumulative contracted sales amount of RMB 43.8 billion for the first ten months, a year-on-year decrease of 10.43% [9] - Gemdale reported a cumulative contracted sales amount of approximately RMB 9.125 billion for the first ten months, a year-on-year decrease of 43.93% [10] - Sunac China reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately RMB 32.77 billion for the first ten months, a year-on-year decline of 25.1% [11] - Guoyin Financial Leasing plans to purchase 1,198 units of domestic information technology computing equipment for a total consideration of RMB 1.04 billion [12] - Youjia Innovation recently received project designation notifications from a globally renowned automotive group's joint venture and luxury brand, with a total order amount of approximately RMB 320 million [13] - Swire Properties reported a rental rate of 96% for Taikoo Place in Q3, with a rental reduction of 13%. Other Swire properties had an occupancy rate of 90%, with a rental reduction of 15% [14] - Zhongshen Construction Industry plans to acquire 100% equity of Huajian Development Co., Ltd. for approximately HKD 213.6 million [15] - Hard Egg Innovation signed a memorandum of understanding with Huixin Investment to jointly develop an AIoT innovation enterprise incubation platform [16] - Damai Entertainment expects mid-term net profit to increase to no less than RMB 500 million, compared to RMB 337 million last year [17] - Cafe de Coral Group issued a profit warning, expecting mid-term profit attributable to shareholders to decline by 65% to 70% [18] - Qingci Games signed a game licensing transfer agreement with Disney, obtaining authorization to develop and publish the game "Disney: Book of Legends," expected to launch in 2026 across various regions [19] - Now Medical Technology's subsidiary signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with Medtronic Changzhou to promote clinical applications of real-time navigation tracking endoscopic technology in China [19] - Zhaoke Ophthalmology-B signed a distribution agreement with PT FERRON for the commercialization of BRIMOCHOL PF in Indonesia, receiving an upfront payment and potential milestone payments [19] - Shoujia Technology signed a strategic framework cooperation agreement with Stardust Intelligence, covering the development of humanoid robot tendon and related fields [20] Buyback Dynamics - Helen's decided to exercise its share buyback authorization, planning to repurchase up to 127 million shares [21] - China Feihe repurchased 6.806 million shares for a total of approximately HKD 29.4298 million, with a buyback price of HKD 4.29 to HKD 4.35 [22] - Kintor Pharmaceutical repurchased 1.734 million shares for a total of approximately HKD 26.3078 million, with a buyback price of HKD 14.35 to HKD 15.8 [23] - COSCO Shipping Holdings repurchased 1.53 million shares for a total of approximately HKD 20.9869 million, with a buyback price of HKD 13.57 to HKD 13.84 [24] - Sinopec repurchased 2.398 million H-shares for a total of approximately HKD 10.1066 million, with a buyback price of HKD 4.20 to HKD 4.23 [25]

11月6日，A股市场整体上涨。 3.电子等行业实现净流入 、 | | | 资金净流入居前的行业 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业 | 涨跌幅 | 净流入资金 (亿元) | 资金流入较多个股 | | 电子 | 1.61% | 175. 47 | 寒武纪-U | | 有色金属 | 2. 42% | 76. 47 | 华友钻业 | | 电力设备 | 0. 74% | 67. 82 | 特变电工 | | 通信 | 0. 52% | 36. 40 | 中际旭创 | | 基础化工 | 1.22% | 31. 64 | 川发龙蟒 | | | | 资金净流出居前的行业 | | | 行业 | 涨跌幅 | 净流入资金 (亿元) | 资金流出较多个股 | | 矢药生物 | -0. 38% | -67.51 | 向日葵 | | 传媒 | -1.53% | -56. 23 | 吉视传媒 | | 商贸零售 | -0. 84% | -32. 85 | 中国中免 | | 银行 | -0. 26% | -30. 54 | 招商银行 | | 国防军工 | 0. 68% | -27.47 | 三角防务 | 4. ...