Core Viewpoint - European bond yields have generally declined, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards lower interest rates and possibly reflecting economic concerns [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Changes - The UK 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.2 basis points to 4.746% [1] - The French 10-year government bond yield fell by 4.2 basis points to 3.538% [1] - The German 10-year government bond yield dropped by 4.6 basis points to 2.737% [1] - The Italian 10-year government bond yield declined by 6.2 basis points to 3.611% [1] - The Spanish 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.2 basis points to 3.344% [1]

本报记者 田鹏 近日，山东鲁泰控股集团有限公司顺利完成2025年科技创新公司债券（高成长产业债）发行工作。值得关注的是，本期债 券不仅聚焦科技创新领域，还叠加了"高成长产业"属性，成为济宁市首单同时具备"科技创新+高成长产业"双贴标公司债券。 所谓双贴标公司债券，是指同时符合两种不同类型债券标准和要求的债券产品。其诞生的本质在于破解单一主题债券"聚 焦性强但协同性弱"的痛点，精准匹配国家战略需求与实体企业多元化融资诉求。 正是凭借这种"精准匹配、协同赋能"的核心价值，近年来我国双贴标债券市场逐步进入发展快车道——发行规模持续扩 大，从早期的零星发行逐步走向稳定供给，市场参与度不断提升；品种组合不断丰富，除"科技创新+高成长产业"外，"绿色 +科创""乡村振兴+区域协调"等契合国家多维度战略的组合类型相继涌现，覆盖领域持续拓宽。 在当前国家多项长期战略进入协同推进的关键阶段、实体经济融资需求日益多元化和债券市场向精细化发展的背景下，双 贴标公司债券应运而生。Wind资讯数据显示，今年以来截至9月3日，共有85只双贴标公司债券顺利发行，发行规模合计达 692.76亿元，相较去年同期发行数量及规模分别增长174.1 ...

Group 1 - A global government bond sell-off is occurring, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards the psychological 5% mark [2] - The sell-off has affected bond markets across the Atlantic, with yields rising in the U.S., U.K., Italy, and France, reaching new highs since the financial crisis [2][4] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 5%, marking the first time since July, while the 10-year yield has climbed to 4.291% [2] Group 2 - The U.K. 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.72%, the highest since 1998, while Germany and France's yields have also hit their highest levels since 2011 and 2009, respectively [4] - Japan's 30-year Treasury yield has surged to 3.28%, the highest on record, with the 20-year yield reaching 2.69%, a new high since 1999 [7] Group 3 - The sell-off is attributed to a combination of massive corporate bond supply, concerns over government fiscal conditions, and seasonal liquidity tightening [8] - September is traditionally unfavorable for long bond holders, with significant corporate bond issuance expected, estimated at $150 billion to $180 billion in the U.S. alone this month [10][11] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming U.S. employment report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8][14] Group 4 - The bond market's turmoil reflects deep concerns about the fiscal health of developed economies, exacerbated by pandemic-related spending [12] - Historical trends indicate that September is typically a poor month for long-duration bonds, with a median decline of 2% over the past decade [13] - Technical liquidity factors are also contributing to the market's challenges, with significant cash withdrawals expected in September [13]

Core Viewpoint - A global sell-off of government bonds is occurring, leading to a unique bull market for gold, driven by a collective distrust in sovereign currencies like the US dollar [1][12]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Market - On September 2, spot gold surpassed $3,500 per ounce, reaching a historical high, while silver rose to $40.85 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [1]. - The surge in gold prices is not merely a traditional safe-haven response but reflects a broader skepticism towards government-issued currencies [1][14]. Group 2: Government Bond Market - The global bond market is experiencing a significant downturn, with the UK 30-year bond yield rising to 5.69%, the highest in over 20 years, and the US 30-year bond yield nearing 5%, a level not seen since 2006 [1][2]. - Other countries are also witnessing similar trends, with Japan's 30-year bond yield reaching its highest since 2006, and France's at 4.49%, the highest since 2009 [2][4]. - The rise in bond yields indicates a loss of confidence in government bonds, as investors sell off long-term bonds, reflecting concerns over rising government fiscal deficits [1][4]. Group 3: Fiscal Concerns - Many countries are seeing their fiscal spending as a percentage of GDP increase, with the UK projected to spend 60% of its GDP, while the US is expected to have a fiscal spending ratio of 40.5% in FY 2024 [8][9]. - The debt burden is escalating, with the US government leverage ratio at 114% and Japan exceeding 212%, both significantly above the internationally recognized warning threshold of 60% [9][11]. - Interest payments on government debt are consuming a growing portion of national budgets, with the US spending over $1 trillion annually on interest alone, surpassing defense and Medicare expenditures combined [12]. Group 4: Inflation and Economic Implications - Inflation is re-emerging as a significant concern, with the US core PCE exceeding 3% and the UK CPI rising to 3.8%, expected to breach 4% [12][13]. - The situation presents a dilemma for central banks: either allow inflation to rise, impacting living costs, or increase interest rates, which could stifle fragile economic recovery [12][13]. - The current environment has led to a paradox where central banks are cutting rates while bond yields are rising, indicating a deeper trust crisis in government bonds [13]. Group 5: Shift in Investment Sentiment - The ongoing crisis in government bonds and persistent inflation pressures are driving investors to seek alternative safe-haven assets, with gold and other precious metals experiencing significant price increases [12][14]. - The traditional role of bonds as a safe asset appears to be diminishing, prompting a systemic reassessment of the value of precious metals as a hedge against economic instability [13][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. Core Viewpoint The bond market sentiment remains in a wait - and - see period, and it is still recommended to participate in ultra - long credit bonds cautiously [5][42]. Summary by Directory 1. Super - long Credit Bond Trading Sentiment 1.1 Stock Market Characteristics - Ultra - long credit bond prices continued to decline this week. Although the bond market recovered during the week, the market sentiment towards ultra - long bonds remained cautious, and the yields of ultra - long credit bonds further increased. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with yields of 2.4% - 2.5% increased significantly compared with last week [2][12][13]. 1.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The supply of new ultra - long credit bonds maintained low growth. The total issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds this week was 6.25 billion, remaining at a low level. This might be because the issuance cost of long - term bonds was still relatively high, and bond - issuing entities were waiting for a better opportunity. Although the coupon rate of new ultra - long credit bonds decreased significantly in the latest week, the absolute value was still at a relatively high level within the year. Driven by the recovery sentiment and the reduction of available bond assets, the subscription enthusiasm for new ultra - long credit bonds rebounded this week [3][22]. 1.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - The index price of ultra - long credit bonds did not recover. In the first half of the week, the bond market showed a slight recovery, and the weekly change rate of the over - 10 - year treasury bond index returned to positive, but the index of ultra - long credit bonds continued to fall. The over - 10 - year AA+ credit bond index decreased by 0.43% month - on - month [29]. - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. The liquidity of ultra - long credit bonds further dried up this week. The number of transactions of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds dropped to 160, and the total number of transactions of over - 10 - year credit bonds was less than 30. In terms of transaction yields, the yield of over - 7 - year urban investment bonds recovered by more than 7bp, but the yield of ultra - long industrial bonds showed no obvious downward trend. The spread between 7 - 10 - year varieties and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to 24.6bp [30]. - Corresponding to the rational return of selling sentiment, the amplitude of high - valuation transactions of ultra - long credit bonds began to narrow this week, and urban investment bonds over 20 years old shifted to low - valuation transactions. In terms of buying sentiment, the proportion of TKN transactions of ultra - long credit bonds rebounded, but the reading of over - 10 - year bonds was still at a low point within the year [35]. - In terms of investor structure, the selling behavior of trading desks for ultra - long credit bonds continued. This week, funds still reduced their holdings of over - 7 - year credit bonds by 2 billion. For allocation desks such as insurance companies, although the承接 behavior continued, the intensity weakened. This week, the increase in holdings was concentrated in 7 - 10 - year varieties [40].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a fixed - income research report released on September 3, 2025, written by analysts Liang Weichao and Li Shukai [1][2][6] Group 2: August Credit Bond Market Review - In August, the credit bond market was mainly in adjustment, with overall larger declines than interest rates, showing differentiation in duration and variety liquidity. The market can be divided into two stages: a sharp decline from late July to early August followed by a recovery, but continuous adjustment from the second week of August due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [2][11] - Ultra - long - term credit bonds performed the weakest in August, with most declines exceeding those of the same - term interest - rate bonds. Among them, ultra - long secondary and perpetual bonds with better liquidity had the lowest declines, while ultra - long urban investment bonds with the worst liquidity had larger declines [2][12] - From the perspective of curve shape, the steepness of the 1 - 2 - year and 2 - 3 - year periods for all ratings is high. After the major adjustment in August, the yield curve is steeper, with room to flatten the curve. For example, for AA+ medium - term notes, the slopes of the 1 - 2 - year, 2 - 3 - year, and 3 - 5 - year intervals are 0.1302, 0.099, and 0.0900 respectively; for AA urban investment bonds, they are 0.1497, 0.1313, and 0.1205 respectively [3][15] - The performance of different credit strategies in August varied. Only the short - duration weak - asset sinking strategy was relatively successful, while the ultra - long - term credit strategy performed the worst [14] - The secondary and perpetual bond market also weakened in August, but the decline was not significantly higher than that of general credit bonds, and the characteristic of being a volatility amplifier was not prominent. The 2 - 4 - year part of the curve is steeper, and the yields of 4 - year and above parts have exceeded the previous high in late July [3][20][21] Group 3: Institutional Behavior in August - In August, the overall buying of credit bonds by major buyers was weaker than last year. Bank wealth management and insurance had relatively larger allocation efforts. Bank wealth management and other products had a net secondary purchase of about 180 billion yuan of credit bonds, and insurance had a net purchase of 56.2 billion yuan. Public funds were net sellers [4][23] Group 4: Credit Bond ETF Performance in August - Since August, credit bond ETF products have not performed well, with weak scale growth and net - value performance. The second batch of science and technology innovation ETFs may bring marginal benefits to the market [4][25] Group 5: Outlook for September - In September, credit bonds have certain investment value after continuous market adjustments. The sinking strategy has opened up bond - selection space, with about 43% of public credit bonds having a valuation above 2.0%. Representative issuers include Xi'an High - tech, Tianjin Urban Construction, and Hebei Iron and Steel Group [4][26] - From the riding strategy perspective, 2 - 3 - year general credit bonds and 3 - 4 - year secondary and perpetual bonds have good opportunities. For the ultra - long - term strategy, caution is still recommended as the ultra - long - term bonds have had high declines since August and it is hard to say they have stabilized. Allocation investors with matched liability ends can consider entering the market, while it is not a good time for trading investors due to high liquidity risks [4][26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights significant movements in the commodity and bond markets, particularly the surge in gold and silver prices, driven by factors such as the weakening independence of the Federal Reserve, expectations of interest rate cuts, rising inflation pressures in the U.S., and the diminishing hedging function of long-term government bonds [1][3][5]. - Gold has recently broken the $3,500 mark, reaching a historical high, while silver has surpassed $40, marking a 14-year peak [3]. - The bond market is experiencing a sell-off, with long-term government bond yields in developed markets, including the U.S., U.K., and France, reaching multi-year highs, indicating a loss of investor confidence in the existing financial system [4][5]. Group 2 - The U.S. inflation rate is approaching 3%, and the potential for a significant economic impact from this inflation may not be fully realized until the fourth quarter [3]. - The U.K.'s current deficit as a percentage of GDP is comparable to historical periods of significant upheaval, such as the French Revolution [6]. - The article suggests that as governments accumulate excessive debt and lose the trust of major debt buyers, investors are increasingly turning to gold as a reliable asset that does not depend on government promises [8]. Group 3 - The articles indicate that September is historically a poor month for stock and bond markets, with global government bonds over ten years showing a median decline of 2% in September over the past decade [10]. - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term investment value of European stocks remains strong, supported by sectors such as luxury goods, pharmaceuticals, and green energy, which possess significant pricing power and competitive advantages [19][20]. - The New Zealand Superannuation Fund is strategically reallocating its investments, betting on European stocks outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade based on valuation assessments [21].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off in long-term government bonds in the US and Europe is driven by investor concerns over fiscal sustainability and central bank's ability to control inflation, compounded by seasonal liquidity tightening and term premium effects [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Long-term bond yields in the US, UK, Italy, and France have risen significantly, with the US 30-year bond yield increasing by 5.3 basis points to 4.97%, marking a multi-year high [1]. - The negative sentiment in the bond market has spilled over into the stock market, with major indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq experiencing declines of 0.69%, 0.55%, and 0.82% respectively [1]. - The sell-off in bonds has been linked to a historical context where previous fiscal policies and trade tensions have led to significant fluctuations in bond yields [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - OECD projects that sovereign debt issuance among its 38 member countries will reach a record $17 trillion by 2025, with the debt servicing cost as a percentage of GDP rising to 3.3% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2021 [4]. - The US is particularly affected, with debt interest costs projected to reach 4.7% of GDP, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [4]. - Political instability in countries like France and the UK is causing investor anxiety, with discussions around potential IMF assistance emerging [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Seasonal liquidity tightening is identified as a contributing factor to the recent bond market downturn, as September typically sees increased bond issuance from governments and corporations, leading to supply-demand imbalances [6]. - The expectation of a strong US non-farm payroll report could influence market sentiment, with potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate policies [6]. - Analysts suggest that the current rise in long-term bond yields may not be easily reversed, even with anticipated slight reductions in policy rates [7].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 离岸人民币债，点心债，收益率 在前期的报告《离岸人民币中国主权债券利率影响因素初探》中，我们研究了离岸人民币中国主权债市场。本篇报告聚焦离岸人民币信用债市场，研究离 岸人民币信用债收益率影响因素。 从发行规模来看，离岸人民币信用债券存续总规模1.12万亿元。其中，分涉险国家和地区来看，发行人为中国大陆的离岸人民币信用债规模最大。2022年 起海外发行人发行的离岸人民币债券的规模上升，这主要是由于在上述阶段，一方面，美债利率、中资美元债收益率抬升，美元指数中枢上行，人民币相 对其他货币更为稳定且融资成本较低；另一方面，债券通"南向通"于2021年9月上线，需求端的政策支持也一定程度上吸引海外发行人来离岸人民币市场 发行债券。 从发行主体来看，银行债券一直是离岸人民币信用债的主要部分，2023年至2024年，随着境内城投债融资政策收紧与中国企业产能出海规模快速提升，工 业产业债券发行规模开始放量。其年度发行规模占离岸人民币信用债年度发行总规模的比例上升至20%、29%。 从收益率水平来看，离岸人民币信用债收益率曲线在大方向上与3年离岸国债曲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performance of the stock and bond markets in 2025, highlighting a significant rise in A-shares while the bond market faces challenges due to changing economic fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds reflects a shift in market risk appetite, where funds flow into equities during bullish phases, leading to pressure on bond prices [4][5]. - Economic fundamentals, including macroeconomic conditions, inflation, and monetary policy, are the primary determinants of bond market trends, rather than stock market fluctuations [4][5]. - Recent economic indicators show signs of weakening, such as a decline in new loans and social financing, which typically would support the bond market; however, the bond market continues to decline due to strong stock performance and policy disruptions [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - In a bullish stock market, the bond market may not present high value, but there are opportunities for tactical trading, suggesting a strategy of buying low and selling high [7]. - Monitoring the yields of 10-year and 30-year government bonds is crucial, as bond prices and yields move inversely; rising yields indicate falling bond prices and vice versa [7][8]. - Historical trends show that while bond yields have generally declined over the past decade, the current yields are at historical lows, suggesting potential for further declines in the long term, despite short-term volatility [8][9]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Considerations - For long-term investments, key considerations include duration selection (short-term vs. long-term bonds), risk-return trade-offs (focusing on Sharpe ratios), and alignment with market conditions [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a rational approach to investing, avoiding the temptation to follow stock market trends blindly, and recognizing the unique dynamics of the bond market [10].