2025年我国可再生能源发电量达到约4.0万亿千瓦时，超过欧盟27国用电量之和。 文丨本报记者 王林 国家能源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾介绍，能源安全保障有力有效。202 5年是"十四五"以来能源保供成效最好的一年。原煤生产保持 稳定，规上工业原煤产量同比增长1.2%。油、气产量双创历史新高，规上工业原油产量同比增长1.5%，规上工业天然气产量同比增长 6.2%。电力供应平稳有序，一批特高压直流输电工程投产送电，电力系统互补互济水平持续提升。 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 责编丨李慧颖 1月3 0日，国家能源局召开新闻发布会，《中国能源报》记者在会上了解到，2025年，我国能源供应保障能力有效提升，供需总体宽 松，多项重要政策举措密集出台，行业健康有序发展，新型能源体系建设基础持续夯实，助力我国经济持续回升向好。 绿色低碳转型步伐加快。 制定出台新能源集成融合发展、促进新能源消纳和调控等一系列政策措施，助力新能源发展提质增效。全年 风电光伏新增装机超过4.3亿千瓦、累计装机规模突破18亿千瓦，可再生能源发电装机占比超过六成。 可再生能源发电量达到约4 .0万 亿千 ...

黑色板块研发报告 双焦：基本面权重降低，资金扰动加大 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1 月双焦盘面宽幅震荡运行，波动较大，但趋势性不明显。在黑色系商 品整体波动下降，市场关注度不高的大背景下，同时焦煤基本面矛盾不明显， 难以走出独立性行情。具体看，焦煤期货 1 月上旬上涨，中旬回落，下旬震 荡。1 月的上涨主要是交易的下游冬储补库预期，到了中旬蒙煤通关重新回 到高位，且国内供应也比较充足，市场对于年后预期不足，盘面率先回落。 焦炭无独立行情，跟随焦煤价格波动。 【市场展望】 【策略推荐】 近期双焦交易主线不明确，基本面乏善可陈，资金不时带来扰动。基本 面上，近期蒙煤通关车次高位震荡，口岸库存依然偏高，下游观望情绪增强； 国内煤矿近期产量较为平稳，焦煤供给并不紧张；下游近期处于冬储补库尾 声，在整体黑色市场预期一般的市场环境下，下游对于原料冬储补库力度并 不大。进入 2 月，煤矿陆续放假，现货成交也逐步冷清，价格趋于稳定。盘 面上，我们认为基本面的权重降低，资金和情绪的扰动较大；从估值的角度 看，焦煤当前估值并不高，前期外围商品价格表现亮眼，需要关注资金的切 换。从风险收益比角度考虑，建议保持逢低做多的思路 ...

Summary of Shanxi Coking Coal Conference Call Industry Overview - The coking coal market in 2025 faces significant challenges, with local prices in Shanxi dropping nearly 60% [2][3] - The decline in coal prices is attributed to increased imports of metallurgical coal from Mongolia and Russia, which have filled domestic supply gaps, leading to an oversupply situation [2][6] - Market sentiment has also contributed to the price drop, as companies are hesitant to purchase amid falling prices [6] Company Performance - Shanxi Coking Coal's pricing mechanism adjustment on July 1, 2025, set the minimum price for primary coking coal at 1,170 CNY/ton, while the market price was around 1,100-1,150 CNY/ton [2][5] - The company reported a coal production of approximately 46 million tons in 2025, slightly below the planned target, with a coking coal output of about 11.62 million tons and a sales volume close to 99% [4][12] - The company’s dividend policy has been influenced by regulatory encouragement for multiple dividends, with a minimum payout ratio of 30% set for the next three years, and a 40% payout ratio for 2025 [4][11] Price Dynamics - In January 2026, primary coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate around 1,500 CNY, but the steel industry perceives this price as potentially high, necessitating further observation of market trends [3][5] - The relationship between steel production costs and coking coal prices is critical, as coking coal accounts for about 30% of steel production costs [10] Market Challenges - The potential for further price declines in 2026 exists, particularly if iron ore prices rise, which could squeeze steel industry profits and subsequently reduce demand for coking coal [7][10] - The influx of Mongolian metallurgical coal continues to exert pressure on domestic prices, with historical data showing a shift from Australian coal to Mongolian and Russian supplies due to geopolitical factors [8][9] Operational Insights - The company has implemented an 80% long-term performance rate strategy to manage inventory, adjusting sales channels in response to market demand fluctuations [16] - The development of new mining blocks is ongoing, with an expected annual output of 8 million tons of raw coal, excluding bauxite mining [17] Financial Outlook - The profitability of Shanxi Coking Coal's electricity business in 2025 remains uncertain, with some plants performing well while others face operational challenges [18] - The expected electricity price for 2026 is projected to remain stable, with a potential price of around 0.31 CNY per kWh [18]

2026年1月30日早盘，截至09:58，中证国有企业红利指数上涨0.09%，成分股菜百股份上涨4.41%，恒源 煤电上涨3.70%，中信特钢上涨3.21%，厦门象屿上涨2.39%，中信银行上涨2.08%。国企红利 ETF(159515)盘中涨超1%，现涨0.34%。（文中所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。 过往持仓情况不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发 生变化，投资需谨慎） 消息方面，近期布伦特原油从60美元附近强势反弹至65美元之上，伴随地缘不确定性加剧，市场持续对 多个前沿的短期供应不确定性进行定价。供给方面，最近的北极寒流导致上周末美国原油日产量减少高 达200万桶，二叠纪盆地受灾最重，油井、集输系统和地面设备冻结或关停。此外，寒潮来临、电厂日 耗水平拉升，电厂库存去化，煤炭现货价格相对平稳，秦皇岛山西产Q5500动力煤价格止跌企稳，近几 日稳定在685元/吨。供给方面，随着春节临近，煤矿将陆续开始放假，短期煤炭供给较难放量。中期维 度，今年产能核增退出与内蒙古灾害治理项目政策有望逐步推出，煤炭供给有减量空间，具体需等待政 策落地情况，如果超出 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that coal stocks in the A-share market experienced a significant increase, with several companies reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong market performance despite broader market trends [1] - Panjiang Coal and Electricity Co. (盘江股份) forecasts a net profit increase of 205.30% to 264.83% by 2025, which is a strong indicator of future growth potential [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances include Panjiang Coal and Electricity Co. rising by 10.06% with a total market capitalization of 11.7 billion, and Yunmei Energy (云煤能源) increasing by 10.05% with a market cap of 5.35 billion [2] - Other companies such as Dayou Energy (大有能源) and Shaanxi Black Cat (陕西黑猫) saw increases of over 6%, with market caps of 17.8 billion and 9.64 billion respectively [2] - The overall trend in the coal sector is positive, as indicated by the MACD golden cross signal formation, suggesting a favorable outlook for these stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market generally holds a pessimistic long-term outlook on traditional fossil energy, but the energy structure transformation is a lengthy and complex systemic project. Coal, as a "strategic ballast" for supply security, cannot be replaced in the short term, and rigid demand will continue to solidify the industry's fundamentals. In this context, the coal sector's "cash cow" attributes are becoming increasingly stable, and the reasonable high-level operation of coal prices is expected to further drive industry profitability and dividend capacity beyond expectations, making long-term investment value worthy of attention [1]. Supply Side - The coal industry supply side is undergoing a profound restructuring. The six national departments issued guidelines in December 2025 to control coal consumption in coal-fired power generation and coal-to-natural gas, alongside stricter ongoing supervision in safety and environmental protection. This will lead to a rational and high-quality transformation of supply order. The release of industry capacity is expected to continue in a stable yet tight manner, with the voice of high-quality compliant capacity continuing to rise. The trend of resource nationalism driven by de-globalization is highlighting coal's core value in ensuring national energy security. Since December 2025, Indonesia has lowered its coal production targets for 2026 and reintroduced a 1%-5% coal export tax while tightening foreign exchange management to consolidate resource control [1]. Demand Side - The rigid growth of electricity demand remains unchanged as of December 2025, with resilience in coal power demand. The coal chemical sector is also experiencing new growth momentum, with projects like coal-to-oil and coal-to-olefins accelerating. In December, chemical coal consumption increased by 7% year-on-year, continuing a high growth trend and becoming the core driving force for demand growth. Overall, coal demand is expected to remain stable and achieve slight growth in 2026 [2]. Investment Analysis - The company is optimistic about the continued rebound in thermal coal prices and suggests focusing on growth-oriented stocks such as Tebian Electric Apparatus, Jinko Coal Industry, Huayang Co., New Hope Energy, Huaihe Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining. It recommends stable operating high-dividend stocks like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while also suggesting attention to Ordos. Additionally, it recommends flexible coking coal stocks such as Shanxi Coking Coal, Huaibei Mining, and Lu'an Environmental Energy [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On January 29, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures rebounded significantly, recovering the losses of the previous three trading days. Considering the news factors leading to the recent rebound in steel prices and the supply-demand balance in the fundamentals, it is expected that the market will likely fluctuate with an upward trend in the future. Investors can wait for dips to arrange medium- and long-term hedging or investment positions [6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On January 29, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 rebounded significantly, recovering the losses of the previous three trading days. The prices of some rebar and hot-rolled coil in the spot market increased [5][6][8]. - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar and hot-rolled coil 2605 contracts both showed golden crosses, and the daily MACD green bars both narrowed [8]. - **News Factors**: The regulatory policy tightening sent a cooling signal to the irrational rise of some metal prices, but failed to stop the continuous increase of some metal prices. The black metal commodity prices generally followed the upward trend of the metal sector. The international energy prices rose due to the tense situation in the Middle East, causing coal and coke prices to stop falling and rebound [9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of the five major steel products has been slightly increasing for five consecutive weeks, while the demand has been declining for two consecutive weeks with a narrowing decline. The total inventory has been accumulating for two consecutive weeks due to the seasonal decline in demand. The spot price of iron ore has rebounded after a significant decline, and the first round of price increase for coke is about to be implemented [10]. - **Raw Materials**: The shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil decreased by 13.3% compared with the previous four weeks, but the arrival volume increased by 3.2%. The port iron ore inventory reached a record high of 1.67 billion tons. The independent coking enterprises slightly reduced production after increasing production following steel enterprises. The supply of imported coal has rebounded again, but the supply and demand are still relatively balanced considering the cold weather in most parts of the north [11]. 3.2 Industry News - **National Policies**: The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen the comprehensive coordination of coal, electricity, oil, and gas during the Spring Festival travel rush. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to promote the photovoltaic industry to return to a healthy and rational development path [12]. - **Enterprise Performance**: Many steel and coal enterprises released performance forecasts. Some enterprises such as Youfa Group, Sansteel Minguang, Fangda Special Steel, and Shandong Iron and Steel achieved profit growth or turnaround, while some enterprises such as Lanhua Kechuang, Hengyuan Coal and Electricity, and Liaoning Energy suffered losses [13][14]. - **Industry Developments**: Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Group's annual coal production capacity exceeded 50 million tons, and its coal industry's per capita production efficiency increased. Yunnan Energy Investment disclosed its new energy power generation data, and India set a coal production target for the 2026 - 2027 fiscal year [14][15]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in major markets, weekly production of the five major steel products, inventory of steel mills and social inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, national daily average pig iron production, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai spot and May contracts for rebar and hot-rolled coil [16][18][26][35][36].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹需求环比略降，产量在利润支撑下回升，库存继续累积。铁水产量变化不大，钢厂 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 利润总体一般，原料价格偏高抑制钢厂补库积极性。钢材供需层面矛盾有限，宏观情绪 阶段性偏强，中期维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量及表需相对平稳，库存略有下降，绝对水平偏高。在产量较低，需求稳健的状 | | ★ | 谨慎看多 | 态下，冬储累库压力或不大。现货相对较弱，基差在平水附近波动。高库存、低基差对 行情形成压制，短期宏观氛围偏暖，中期维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 上周钢厂库存水平明显上升，补库还将持续，铁水环比小幅回落，但后续仍有回升预期。 | | ★ | 多单持有 | 铁矿基本面仍然偏强，价格坚挺。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭首轮提涨落地，市场对第二轮提涨存在分歧。近期焦企亏损程度略有减轻，受生产 | | ★★ | 看多 | 惯性短期焦企生产积极性尚可，供应量环比略降。从需求来看，铁水产量变化不大，下 游维持按需采购。预计短期维持偏强运行。 | | 焦煤 | 看多 | 国内 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed weakness in early trading on January 30, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.35%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.13% [1] - The coal sector performed strongly, with Panjiang Coal Industry hitting the daily limit, while the tourism concept saw active performance with Caesar Travel also hitting the limit [1] - The storage chip concept was notably active, with Hengshuo Co. rising over 10% to set a new historical high [1] - Conversely, the precious metals sector experienced a collective pullback, with multiple stocks including Zhongjin Gold hitting the daily limit down [1][2] Sector Performance Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw a significant decline, with stocks like Zhongjin Gold, Yinhai Nonferrous, and others hitting the daily limit down [2] - On the previous night, spot gold and silver prices initially rose by 3% and 4% respectively, reaching historical highs, but then experienced a sharp drop due to profit-taking, with gold prices falling from approximately $5,530 to $5,105.83, marking a maximum daily drop of 5.7% [3] - By the time of reporting, spot gold and silver had recovered slightly, rising about 1% [3] Coal Sector - The coal sector showed resilience, with Panjiang Coal Industry achieving a daily limit up, and other companies like New Dazhou A, Dayou Energy, and Shanxi Coking Coal also seeing gains [4] - Panjiang Coal Industry projected a net profit increase of 205.30% to 264.83% for 2025 [5] Institutional Insights - Guosen Securities indicated that the market focus will shift towards performance as the annual report performance forecasts enter a dense disclosure period in late January, with a median year-on-year growth rate for the full A-share net profit expected to reach double digits [6] - Zheshang Securities suggested that the market will likely experience short-term fluctuations, driven by seasonal effects and policy expectations, with a focus on performance and elasticity in the upcoming earnings verification window [7] - Dongfang Securities noted that the stock index is expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, with structural market trends driven by industry prosperity, while cautioning against potential wide fluctuations in the precious metals sector [8]

Core Viewpoint - The black commodities sector, particularly coking coal and coke, has experienced a general price increase, with coking coal rising by 3.93% to 1165.0 yuan and coke increasing by 3.20% to 1723.0 yuan as of market close [2][9]. Group 1: Reasons for Price Increase - The macroeconomic environment shows strong bullish sentiment across various sectors, leading to an overflow of optimism towards fundamentally sound, undervalued commodities [3][10]. - For coke, data from Fenwei indicates a further contraction in coking profits this week, with reduced production and inventory at absolute low levels. Pre-holiday replenishment demand from downstream sectors and coal prices providing cost support have contributed to the resilience of coke prices [3][10]. - In terms of coking coal, Fenwei data shows an increase in premium coal production and a decrease in inventory at low levels compared to the same period last year. Despite high levels of imported coal, there are expectations of marginally weaker near-term supply as the Spring Festival approaches, alongside a rebound in thermal coal prices, which supports coking coal prices [3][10]. Group 2: Market Outlook - The Indian government's designation of coking coal as a key strategic mineral, coupled with India's high dependence on imported coking coal, may stimulate speculative demand [3][10]. - Overall, the fundamental contradictions in coking coal and coke markets are limited, with pre-holiday replenishment providing price support. Market sentiment is driving a rapid rebound in both commodities, and short-term fluctuations are expected to continue. Attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment, progress in downstream replenishment, and coal supply conditions [3][10].