Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry has shown strong performance recently, with significant price increases across various segments, driven by market dynamics and expectations of monetary policy changes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index rose by 8.59% over the two-week period from August 18 to August 29, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 5th among 31 first-level industries [1][2]. - Among sub-sectors, small metals led the gains with a 23.81% increase, followed by metal new materials (7.69%), precious metals (6.76%), industrial metals (5.71%), and energy metals (4.41%) [1][2]. Group 2: Metal Prices - As of August 29, COMEX gold closed at $3,516 per ounce, up 3.97% over the two weeks; COMEX silver closed at $40.75 per ounce, up 7.18% [3]. - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price increased by 24.62% to 251,000 CNY per ton; LME tin price rose by 3.99% to $34,950 per ton [3]. - The light rare earth price index increased by 6.39%, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising by 10.96% to 597,500 CNY per ton [3]. Group 3: Economic Factors - Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September have strengthened metal prices, with a notable increase in the non-ferrous ETF fund by 4.46% on August 25 [4]. - The weakening dollar has enhanced the financial attributes of metals like copper and gold, contributing to the overall price increase [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on opportunities in precious metals and industrial metals such as copper and aluminum [6].

Report Information - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [1][4][9][12][15][17][22][25][26] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold is expected to break through new highs; silver is expected to reach the previous high [2][4] - Copper prices are rising due to improved market sentiment [2][9] - Zinc is expected to trade in a range [2][12] - Lead prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction [2][15] - Tin is expected to trade in a range [2][17] - Aluminum is expected to be moderately strong with fluctuations; alumina is expected to trade in a range; attention should be paid to the progress of policy implementation for cast aluminum alloy [2][22] - Nickel's fundamentals suggest narrow - range fluctuations, while news may stimulate market sentiment; stainless - steel prices are expected to move in a narrow range [2][26] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 804.32 with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 813.00 with a 1.08% increase [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 114,740 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 2,067 [5] - **ETF and Inventory**: The SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 13 to 990.56, and the Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 447 to 40,191 kilograms [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Silver - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9824 with a 0.52% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 9836.00 with a 0.01% increase [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 336,732 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 12,097 [5] - **ETF and Inventory**: The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) increased by 56 to 15,366.48, and the Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 8001 to 1,215,228 kilograms [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Base Metals Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,660 with a - 0.15% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 80410 with a 0.94% increase [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 16,804 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 579 [9] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 699 to 19,501 tons. Free Port's Indonesian branch will complete the maintenance of the Gresik plant in early September [9][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22325 with a 0.68% daily increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2833 with a 0.68% increase [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 14018, and the LME Zinc trading volume decreased by 5760 [12] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 998 to 38955 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 275 to 55600 tons. Eurozone inflation slightly rebounded in August [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][14] Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16850 with a - 0.03% daily decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2007 with a 0.50% increase [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 2369, and the LME Lead trading volume decreased by 2581 [15] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 373 to 56428 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1525 to 258025 tons [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,980 with a 0.27% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 274,130 with a - 0.08% decrease [18] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 75,860, and the open interest decreased by 1,036 [18] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 48 to 7,263 tons, and the LME Tin inventory increased by 20 to 2,175 tons [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20720, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3022 [22] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55120, and the open interest decreased by 7232 [22] - **Inventory and News**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 61.60 million tons, and the LME Aluminum inventory was 47.96 million tons [22] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0, indicating a neutral view [24] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,530, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,960 [26] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 43,115, and the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 34,264 [26] - **Industry News**: Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production [26][28][29] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral view [31]

格隆汇9月3日丨宝钛股份(600456.SH)公布，公司拟以自有资金参与竞拍位于宝鸡市科技新城片区高新 大道以南、实业路以西的一宗国有土地使用权（宗地总面积126198m2，挂牌起始价5734万元。最终购 买金额和面积以实际出让文件为准）。 ...

人民财讯9月3日电，宝钛股份（600456）9月3日晚间公告，基于公司中长期战略发展规划，公司拟参与 竞拍位于宝鸡市科技新城片区高新大道以南、实业路以西的一宗国有土地使用权，挂牌起始价5734万 元。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report analyzes multiple industries and commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, providing insights into market trends, supply - demand relationships, and investment strategies for each sector [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent 11 contract up 1.34%. In the third quarter, the oil market supply - demand was balanced. Considering OPEC+ output increase in September and post - peak demand decline, there is a risk of inventory build - up. Look for shorting opportunities when SC11 rebounds above 495 yuan/barrel [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Chinese ship - fuel sales declined year - on - year, but domestic refinery production was also low. Due to geopolitical premium and delayed supply pressure, LU rebounded and FU strengthened [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: After the gas off - season, it shows some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and domestic demand, the civil gas price increased. The high - basis difference pattern persists, and the short - term market is strong in the near term and weak in the long term [24] - **Asphalt**: In the traditional peak season, demand increases seasonally, and supply - demand tightens. The 10 - contract is supported at 3500 yuan/ton, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, the US manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut. Maintain a long position and focus on the US non - farm payroll data on Friday [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices broke through integer thresholds. In the short - to - medium term, it is affected by the Fed rate cut, domestic refined copper consumption substitution, and capital resonance. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. Downstream开工率 has increased seasonally for four weeks. It is expected to test the resistance at 21,000 yuan in the short term [5] - **Alumina**: Production capacity is at a historical high, with rising inventory and supply surplus. It is running weakly, and pay attention to the support at 2830 - 3000 yuan [6] - **Zinc**: In September, refinery maintenance may reduce output. In the short term, it rebounds, but in the medium term, maintain a short - allocation strategy [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Due to political unrest in Indonesia, prices rebounded. Short - term short positions are suspended, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, Shanghai tin recovered some losses. There is a shortage of concentrates, and short - term long positions can be held based on 271,000 yuan [11] - **Manganese Silicon**: Production is increasing, and inventory has not accumulated. In the long term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory [19] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is increasing, demand is okay, and inventory is slightly decreasing [20] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Futures prices declined, and the market was quiet. The overall sentiment is low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [12] - **Polysilicon**: It oscillated below 52,000 yuan/ton. Before new policy details are disclosed, the PS2511 price is expected to face pressure at 53,000 yuan/ton [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Futures prices rose slightly. In September, supply surplus will intensify, and there is a risk of a price decline after the current up - trend [14] - **Methanol**: Coastal available supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating. But with the improvement of downstream device economics, the market is expected to strengthen [26] - **Pure Benzene**: Oil prices rebounded, and benzene prices stopped falling. In the third quarter, supply - demand may improve [27] - **Styrene**: Crude oil and pure benzene provide little support. Supply - demand contradiction is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene production enterprises have controllable inventory pressure, but downstream acceptance of price increases is limited. Polyethylene demand is okay, while polypropylene supply pressure is increasing [29] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC supply pressure is high, and it may oscillate weakly. Caustic soda prices are relatively firm but may also oscillate widely [30] - **PX and PTA**: Prices are oscillating at a low level. Demand is improving, but the actual improvement is limited [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices fluctuate around 4350 yuan/ton. Supply - demand is weakening, and there are both long and short factors in the medium term [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: There is uncertainty in Sino - US trade. In the short term, it may oscillate, and in the long term, there is a cautious bullish view on domestic soybean meal [37] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Prices rebounded. In the long term, consider buying at low prices, but pay attention to volatility risks [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn futures were weak at night. After the new - grain purchase enthusiasm fades, it may continue to run weakly at the bottom [40] - **Pigs**: Spot prices are mixed, and futures prices are weak. There is downward pressure on prices under large supply [41] - **Eggs**: Spot prices are stable, and futures prices rebounded. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [42] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate. Consider buying on dips [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are trending down, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [44] - **Apples**: Futures prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, prices may rise, but in the long term, there is limited upside [45] - **Timber**: Futures prices are oscillating. Supply may remain low, and a wait - and - see approach is adopted [46] - **Paper Pulp**: Futures prices rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and a wait - and - see or range - trading approach is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: MSC announced empty - sailing plans for the Golden Week. Spot prices are under pressure, and the market is expected to oscillate [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is adjusting, and there is short - term macro uncertainty. Increase allocation to technology - growth sectors [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices oscillated flat. Pay attention to the opportunity for curve steepening in short - term multi - variety hedging [49]

黄金又开始创新高。截至9月3日，COMEX黄金期货突破3600美元，今年以来涨超30%。 黄金股也很雀跃。身为许多黄金股ETF第一大重仓的紫金矿业，截至9月2日，今年以来涨了61.44%。 在2025年《福布斯》全球上市公司榜单中， 紫金矿业位列 全球黄金企业第1位、全球金属矿业企业第4位。 8月27日，紫金矿业披露了2025年最新中报，报告期内实现营收1677亿元、归母净利润233亿元，分别同比增长11.5%、54.4%。 同时，公司计划实施中期分红，拟向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 2.2元 （ 含税 ） ，总计派发现金红利约 58.47亿元，约占今年上半年归母净利润的 25.10%。 得说，紫金矿业最初的主营业务是铜，但近年来黄金营收持续增长，尤其是在今年金价大涨的环境中，据中报披露按产品划分的销售详情， 矿产金的营收 （ 2,645,475万元）几乎追上矿产铜的营收（2,726,131万元）。 且公司主营矿产品量价齐升，主要业绩指标均创历史新高，整体矿产品毛利率同比增加 3个百分点至60.23%。 细分矿种来看，公司实现矿产铜 57万吨，同比增长超9%，矿产金同比增长16%至41吨；矿产金占公司的 ...

Industry Overview Mid - view Events - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the advancement of artificial intelligence. After the release of the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Action", Shanghai responded promptly by launching the project application for the 2025 Shanghai "Artificial Intelligence +" Action [1] - In the service industry, attention should be given to the new tax policy. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued a notice on the tax policy for the operation and management of state - owned equity and cash income transferred to enrich the social security fund, exempting VAT on certain income from the investment of transferred state - owned equity and cash income, effective from April 1, 2024 [1] Upstream - In the black industry, wire rod prices declined [2] - In the chemical industry, PTA prices continued to fall [2] Midstream - In the chemical industry, the PX operating rate increased [3] - In the infrastructure sector, the asphalt operating rate slightly decreased [3] Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities slightly increased [4] - In the service sector, the number of domestic flights decreased [4] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: On September 2, the spot price of corn was 2301.4 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.19%; the spot price of eggs had a year - on - year decrease of 0.77%; the spot price of palm oil was 9492.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.51%; the spot price of cotton was 15414.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%; the average wholesale price of pork was 19.8 yuan/kg with a year - on - year decrease of 1.05% [38] - Non - ferrous metals: On September 2, the spot price of copper was 80130.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.62%; the spot price of zinc was 22132.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.65%; the spot price of aluminum was 20636.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the spot price of nickel was 124383.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.72% [38] - Ferrous metals: On September 2, the spot price of aluminum was 16800.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.30%; the spot price of rebar was 3186.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%; the spot price of iron ore was 22132.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.65% [38] - Others: On September 2, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 64.6 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 68.1 dollars/barrel with a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3928.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.46%; the coal price was 782.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.13% [38]

消息面上，9月3日，在美联储降息预期升温和全球矿端供应持续紧张的宏观与基本面双重背景下，LME铜价时隔数月重返1万美元/吨的心理关口。 机构指出，此轮突破被视为前期交易预期的兑现，市场正转向下一阶段，即金融属性与商品属性共振下的价格主升浪，并催化资源股迎来盈利与估 值修复的戴维斯双击。此外，国际现货黄金价格2日一度突破每盎司3500美元，创历史新高。 截至2025年9月3日 13:54，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)成分股方面涨跌互现，东阳光(600673)领涨5.82%，江西铜业(600362)上涨1.86%，中金黄金 (600489)上涨1.63%；中国稀土(000831)领跌。有色ETF基金(159880)最新报价1.5元。 从资金净流入方面来看，有色ETF基金近7天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3187.53万元净流入，合计"吸金"1.08亿元，日均净流入达1540.82万 元。 有色ETF基金紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只 证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细 ...

免费声明:宏深规货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的物货经营机构。已具备规律交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开资料。本公 司时这些信息的准确性和差整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、精准和建议 仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行规资投资所造成的一切后果,本公司概不负责。（风险提示；助市有风险 2 市需谨慎） 研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 数据米源:SMM W 银与不锈钢日评20250903:宏观反复,驱动不足 | 期货近月合约 收盘价 122220.00 123220.00 120180.00 -1,000.00 | | --- | | 期货连一合约 收盘价 122530.00 123450.00 120370.00 -920.00 | | 收盘价 122730.00 123580.00 -850.00 期货连二合约 120480.00 | | 期货连三合约 收盘价 122880.00 123730.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of companies listed on the ChiNext board has significantly improved in the first half of 2025, achieving a total revenue exceeding 2 trillion yuan and a net profit exceeding 150 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of over 9% and 11% respectively, leading the A-share market [2][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - ChiNext companies collectively achieved a revenue of 2.05 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with an average revenue of 1.48 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.03% [4]. - The total net profit reached 150.54 billion yuan, with an average net profit of 109 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.18% [4]. - Over 70% of ChiNext companies reported profits, with more than half experiencing a year-on-year increase in net profit, an increase of 4.86 percentage points compared to the previous year [5]. - In Q2 2025, ChiNext companies achieved a revenue of 1.10 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.95%, and a net profit of 78.82 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 9.90% [5]. Group 2: Key Growth Areas - ChiNext companies are actively integrating into the broader economic development landscape, focusing on innovation-driven strategies in advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and green low-carbon sectors, with over 800 listed companies in these areas [6]. - In the first half of 2025, these three key sectors generated a total revenue of 1.34 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.87%, and a net profit of 113.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.90% [7]. - The green low-carbon sector showed strong performance, with over 190 companies achieving a revenue of 507.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.85%, and a net profit of 49.70 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.55% [8]. - The digital economy sector, with over 300 companies, reported a revenue of 370.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.66%, and a net profit of 29.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 40.03% [8]. - The advanced manufacturing sector achieved a revenue of 461.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [8]. Group 3: Notable Highlights - The top 100 companies by market capitalization on the ChiNext board generated a revenue of 937.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.59%, and a net profit of 102.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.56% [11]. - Overseas revenue for ChiNext companies grew significantly by 21.26% in the first half of 2025, with notable increases in the electronics and communication sectors [11]. - The consumer electronics, automotive, and small home appliance sectors saw net profit increases of 16.80%, 9.57%, and 21.94% respectively, driven by policies supporting consumption recovery [12]. - Research and development expenditures for ChiNext companies totaled 94.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, with a significant number of companies investing heavily in R&D [12]. - Long-term asset investments by ChiNext companies reached 182.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.43%, indicating a strong recovery in investment expansion intentions [13].