Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Oils and Fats - For palm oil, there is potential for the crude palm oil futures to break through previous highs, but beware of the risk of price pull - back around the MPOB report. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures may continue to rise in the short - term. For soybean oil, the US Senate's fiscal expenditure bill may boost consumption and support prices in the long - term, while the domestic soybean oil basis decline is limited due to import cost support [1]. Sugar - The increase in the ethanol blending ratio in Brazilian gasoline supports a small rebound in raw sugar prices, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound height. The domestic market may maintain a bullish sentiment in the short - term, but a bearish view is held after the rebound considering future imports [3]. Eggs - The national egg supply is sufficient, demand is general, and downstream procurement is cautious. Egg prices are expected to be stable first, then decline slightly in the short - term, and remain stable later [7]. Cotton - The short - term supply shortage of old - crop cotton is difficult to resolve, but the long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. The downstream industry is weakening, so cotton prices are likely to fluctuate within a range [10]. Meal - US soybeans are rebounding, and Brazilian soybean prices are rising. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are increasing, and the basis is stable. The soybean meal market is currently bottom - grinding, and attention should be paid to the 2950 support level [12]. Corn - The spot price of corn is firm, but the futures price has declined due to import auctions. In the medium - term, the supply shortage and increasing consumption may support price increases. Short - term operations are recommended [14]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly. The market sentiment may be bullish in the short - term, but there is pressure on the 09 contract above 14,500 [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, soybean oil spot price was 8260, futures price (Y2509) was 8018; palm oil spot price (Guangdong 24 - degree) was 8460, futures price (P2509) was 8440; rapeseed oil spot price (Jiangsu fourth - grade) was 9730, futures price (OI509) was 9618 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of soybean oil (Y2509) was 242, down 26; the basis of palm oil (P2509) was 20, down 74; the basis of rapeseed oil (OI509) was 111, down 42. The soybean oil 09 - 01 spread was 44, up 2; the palm oil 09 - 01 spread was - 10, up 14; the rapeseed oil 09 - 01 spread was 32.65% [1]. Sugar - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of sugar 2601 was 5580, down 16; the price of sugar 2509 was 5766, down 9. The spot price in Nanning was 6070, down 20 [3]. - **Industry Data**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales were 811.38 million tons, up 152.10 million tons [3]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the egg 09 contract was 3678, down 6; the price of the egg 08 contract was 3544, down 24. The egg产区 price was 2.60, unchanged [7]. - **Industry Data**: The price of day - old chicks was 4.00, unchanged; the price of culled hens was 4.62, up 0.18; the egg - feed ratio was 2.24, down 0.09; the breeding profit was - 33.26, down 5.38 [7]. Cotton - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of cotton 2509 was 13805, up 60; the price of cotton 2601 was 13820, up 65. The ICE US cotton主力 price was 67.96, down 0.08 [10]. - **Industry Data**: The commercial inventory was 312.69 million tons, down 33.18 million tons; the industrial inventory was 93.01 million tons, down 1.10 million tons [10]. Meal - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of soybean meal (Jiangsu) was 2840, unchanged; the price of soybean meal futures (M2509) was 2944, down 17. The price of rapeseed meal (Jiangsu) was 2470, down 20; the price of rapeseed meal futures (RM2509) was 2578, down 8 [12]. - **Industry Data**: The Brazilian 8 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was - 16, down 14.4%; the Canadian 11 - month shipping schedule's import crushing profit was 107, unchanged [12]. Corn - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of corn 2509 was 2363, down 20; the price of corn starch 2509 was 2731, down 12 [14]. - **Industry Data**: The import profit of corn was 579, down 1; the import profit of corn starch was - 100, down 5 [14]. Pigs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 2, the price of the pig 2511 contract was 13550, up 160; the price of the pig 2509 contract was 14340, up 475. The spot price in Henan was 15100, up 50 [18]. - **Industry Data**: The daily sample slaughter volume was 136895, down 1775; the weekly white - strip price was 20.43, up 0.1 [18].

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 7 月 3 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | | 合約 | 前结算价 : | 开盘价 : | 成高价 : | 或低价 : | | 收盘价 涨跌:涨跌幅 | | 成交量 : | 特企业 | 特色重变化: | | ...

油脂日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 油脂日报 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/7/2 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8018 | 46 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8238 | | | | 8248 | 8178 | | 230 | 0 | 220 | -10 | 160 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 8440 | 104 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8520 | | | | 8670 ...

油脂：美生柴政策利好 油脂震荡收涨 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、6 月 30 日美国农业部发布的播种意向数据显示，2025 年美国农户计划播种 8338 万 英亩大豆，低于 3 月份预测的 8349.5 万英亩，同比降低 4.2%，也低于市场平均预估的 8365.5 万英亩（范围 8250-8530 万英亩）。 2、美国农业部作物进展周报显示，截至周日(6 月 29 日），大豆出苗率为 94%，高于前 一周的 90%，历史均值 95%。大豆优良率为 66%，和上周持平，而分析师预期优良率提高到 67%。 3、美国参议院最新税收法案提出，将禁止使用北美以外原料（如中国废弃食用油）生 产的生物燃料申请 45Z 税收抵免。该措施较此前版本更为严格。原提案允许使用进口原料的 燃料生产商申请 80%的税收抵免。 4、南马来西亚棕榈油公会（SPPOMMA）的数据显示，2025 年 6 月 1-30 日，南马来西亚 棕榈油产量环比减少 0.65%，其中鲜果串单产环比减少 0.23%，出油率（OER）减少 0.08%。 1 / 3 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号： ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend with different performances across various sectors. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures show certain resilience, while treasury bond futures are affected by the money - market conditions. Precious metals continue to rebound due to international trade and economic data. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have their own supply - demand and price trends, and the investment strategies vary accordingly [2][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed a sector rotation. The red - chip sector rebounded, while the TMT sector pulled back. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spread widened. The macro situation is improving, but investors should be cautious about chasing high prices. They can lightly sell MO options with an execution price of 5900 in August - September to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: After the cross - month period, the money - market rate dropped significantly, and treasury bond futures generally rebounded. However, they lack the momentum to break through the previous high. The focus is on whether the money - market rate can further decline, the subsequent fundamental situation, and the central bank's bond trading announcements. Short - term unilateral strategies suggest appropriate allocation of long positions on dips and taking profits near the previous high [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold continues its upward trend due to the US tariff threat and the decline of the US dollar index. The US economic data shows the impact of tariffs on the manufacturing industry, and the labor supply is tightening. The euro - zone inflation rate is stable. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but there are short - term uncertainties. Silver is affected by gold and has a short - term range - bound trend [8][9][12]. Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows different trends in the European and US routes. The futures market rose yesterday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1800 - 2000 points. The actual price in August is not likely to drop significantly, and the subsequent price center will move up [13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices have suppressed downstream purchases. The supply of copper concentrate is limited, and the demand has some resilience, but there are also potential pressures. The copper price is expected to be supported in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 79000 - 81000 [15][17][19]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in a state of slight surplus, and the price is expected to be weak in the medium term. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 2750 - 3100, and investors can consider short - selling on rallies [19][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. The macro environment and low inventory support the price, but the consumption off - season restricts its upward space. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 20000 - 20800 [22][23][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market of aluminum alloy shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 19200 - 20000 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rebounds due to the weakening of the US dollar, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low. The supply of zinc ore is loose, the demand is weakening, and the inventory provides some support. The long - term strategy is to short on rallies, and the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21500 - 22500 [27][28][30]. - **Tin**: The tin price is in a high - level range - bound state. The supply is still tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. The short - term strategy is to be bullish on dips and short on rallies based on inventory and import data [30][31][33]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price is in a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is stable but with limited growth. The inventory still exerts pressure on the price. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 116000 - 124000 [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12300 - 13000 [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures show a wide - range oscillation. The supply is sufficient, the demand is stable but with limited growth, and the inventory is at a high level. The main contract is expected to trade in the range of 58000 - 64000 [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel is slightly stable due to the rumor of production restrictions in Tangshan. The supply is at a high level but shows a slight decline, and the demand is in the off - season with a downward trend. The price of steel is affected by cost and demand expectations. Short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [42][43][44]. - **Iron Ore**: The 09 contract of iron ore may turn weak. The global shipment volume has decreased, the demand is affected by the off - season and the production - restriction policy in Tangshan. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, with the range of 690 - 720 [45][46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the futures price is oscillating. The supply is expected to increase, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coking coal [48][50][51]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is close to the bottom. The fourth - round price cut has been implemented, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand will slightly decline. The inventory is at a medium level. Unilateral short - selling of the 2601 contract of coke for hedging is recommended, and waiting for a stable trend to go long on the 2509 contract of coke [52][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean market is in a bottom - grinding state, and the support at the bottom is strengthening. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the market is waiting for the determination of the demand trend. Short - term bottom - grinding and long - position opportunities on dips can be focused on [56][57][59]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs is oscillating strongly, but the futures price is under pressure due to profit - taking. The secondary fattening inventory is increasing, and the market sentiment is expected to be strong in the short term, but the 09 contract is under pressure [60][61][62]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn is stable, and the import auction has a premium, which supports the futures price. The supply is tight in the long term, and the demand is gradually increasing. The overall trend is upward, but the pace is slow [63][64].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 2025/7/1 | | --- | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7972 | (12) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8202 | | | | 8202 | 8132 | 230 | 0 | 230 | -10 | 160 | -10 | | 棕榈油 | 8336 | 6 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8436 | | | | 8566 | 8596 | 100 | -50 | 230 | -10 | 260 | -40 | ...

Report Information - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic three major oils are dragged down by international oil prices due to the mitigation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August. The decline in the month-on-month growth of Malaysia's export data from June 1 - 30 is negative for palm oil prices. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable. With the increase in soybean crushing volume and palm oil arrivals, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, oil inventories continue to rise, and the basis is under pressure. The oil price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, with reverse spreads being the main trend. Attention should be paid to the upcoming quarterly grain inventory report and crop planting area report [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Price Quotes**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 50 (June), first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240 (June). East China market soybean oil basis price: first - grade soybean oil, spot basis 09 + 150, July - September Y2509+220, October - January Y2601 + 280. South China spot 24 - degree palm oil P09 + 240 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7] - **Market Analysis**: The market lacks clear drivers. Domestic oils are affected by international oil prices. The mitigation of Middle East geopolitical risks and a possible OPEC+ production increase in August lead to a decline. Malaysia's export data decline in month - on - month growth is negative for palm oil. China's domestic oil supply and demand are stable, with increasing inventories and pressured basis during the consumption off - season. The price spread shows near - term weakness and long - term strength, and reverse spreads are the main trend. Attention should be paid to relevant reports [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil Policy**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in July, reducing the export tax to 8.5% at 3,730.48 Malaysian ringgit per ton. The reference price in June was 3,926.59 Malaysian ringgit per ton, with a 9.5% tariff [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4.55% month - on - month. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.25% month - on - month, while the production in Sabah decreased by 13.27% month - on - month, and the production in Sarawak decreased by 4.56% month - on - month. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.06% month - on - month [8] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase from May. According to AmSpec, the exports in June were 1,286,461 tons, a 4.5% increase from May [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar - Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][19][20][25][26]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Palm oil: Bullish, Soybean oil: Bullish [5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the vegetable oil market will start a new chapter under the influence of the US biofuel new policy. The price center of palm oil and soybean oil will move up. [2] - The report recommends paying attention to the long - position opportunities of palm oil and soybean oil 01 contracts from the second half of the third quarter to the fourth quarter. [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 2025H1 Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the soybean oil market was relatively calm, with the maximum fluctuation range of the main contract less than 1000 points. It oscillated in the first quarter, rose due to supply shortages in the second quarter, and then rose again in early June under the influence of the Israel - Iran conflict and the US biofuel policy. [15] - The palm oil market fluctuated more. It was weak in January, rose rapidly in February due to bad weather, then fell back due to production recovery and order cancellations, and rose again in early June under the resonance of the Israel - Iran conflict and the sharp rise of US soybean oil. [16] 2025H2 Outlook International Market - The US biofuel policy has reshaped the vegetable oil market pattern. The increase in US domestic demand for soybean oil has tightened the global soybean oil balance sheet, which will raise the price center of global vegetable oils. Palm oil will also benefit from this, with obvious bottom support. [18][19] - **Malaysia**: The palm oil production has basically achieved the expected increase and is expected to maintain a normal seasonal rhythm in the second half of the year. The export is expected to be ideal, and the inventory accumulation process may slow down. The year - end inventory is expected to reach 1.54 million tons. [20][31] - **Indonesia**: The B40 implementation progress is slow, and there are still problems with the fund balance. However, considering the fund situation and the government's attitude, it is more likely to complete the B40 distribution plan, which will keep the annual balance sheet in a tight balance and support the price. [43][65] - **US**: The RVO obligation has been significantly increased, and the soybean oil balance sheet has been significantly tightened. The US may increase imports or soybean crushing to meet the demand, which will have a greater impact on the global soybean oil balance sheet. [66][76] - **South America**: The soybean production in Brazil and Argentina is expected to be good. The export of Brazilian soybeans will decline in the third quarter, while Argentina's soybean oil still has export demand. After the end of the soybean oil export tax reduction on June 30, the South American soybean oil quotation is expected to be firm. Brazil's increase in the biodiesel blending ratio will reduce the global soybean oil supply. [77][85] - **India**: The inventory of edible oils is tight, and the procurement may increase significantly. It is expected to have two replenishment peaks in June and August - September. The replenishment demand will limit the speed of origin inventory accumulation and support the price. [90][106] Domestic Market - The inventory inflection point of palm oil and soybean oil in China has arrived, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to reach parity. The procurement of palm oil depends on the origin's selling intention and India's replenishment rhythm, and the import is expected to be between 300,000 and 400,000 tons. The domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient in the third quarter, and the basis is expected to be weak. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to reach parity from late July to mid - August and may return to an inverted state in the fourth quarter. [115][123] Market Judgment and Suggestions - The vegetable oil market is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year, with the main upward wave expected to appear from the second half of the third quarter to the fourth quarter. It is recommended to focus on the long - position opportunities of palm oil and soybean oil 01 contracts. In the first half of the third quarter, it is recommended to operate within the range. [3][126]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A KH | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 王滚框 | Z0019938 | 2025年6月30日 | | | | | | | | | | 票阳 | 6月27日 | 6月26日 | 涨跌幅 | 张跃 | | | | | | | | | 江苏一级 | 8290 | 8240 | 50 | 0.61% | 现价 | 8002 | Y2509 | 8000 | 2 | 0.03% | 期价 | | 基差 | Y2509 | 288 | 240 | 48 | 20.00% | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 | 09 +250 | 09+250 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 18882 | 18882 | 0.00% | 0 | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 6月27日 | 6月26日 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 8 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the potential resurgence of inflation in the U.S. due to trade policies and economic uncertainties, urging central banks to focus on their core missions to maintain market trust and enhance policy effectiveness [1] - The A-share market has shown a positive trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index increasing by 3.73% and 5.69% respectively [1] - Analysts suggest that upcoming mid-year reports from listed companies will create structural investment opportunities, with a focus on sectors with strong performance and high safety margins, such as consumer goods and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - The shipping index for the European route has shown fluctuations, with the SCFI European line increasing by $195/TEU to $2030/TEU, reflecting the pricing situation for July [2] - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with significant trading volume, indicating a potential upward breakout in the A-share market, particularly for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices supported by technology policies [3][9] - The glass and soda ash markets are currently in a phase of inventory digestion, with soda ash production inventory decreasing by 152,000 tons, while glass production inventory increased by 70,000 boxes [4][15] Group 3 - International news includes President Trump's comments on not needing to extend the deadline for countries to reach agreements to avoid higher tariffs, criticizing the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [5] - Domestic news reports that China has conditionally resumed imports of seafood from certain regions in Japan following monitoring of the Fukushima nuclear wastewater situation [6] - Industry news from the 2025 Listed Companies Forum indicates ongoing reforms in major exchanges, with a notable trend of A+H listings expected to increase [7][8]