1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may rebound due to interest - rate cut expectations and the CL spread. The shortage trend of electrolytic copper is difficult to reverse before the "232" investigation ends, and there is still support at the bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains slightly oversupplied in the short term, and the future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level in the short term [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. It is expected that the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices may rebound, but the zinc fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy is recommended [8]. Nickel - The nickel market has improved macro - sentiment, but the cost support of refined nickel has loosened. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals remain weak. In the short term, the market is expected to operate weakly [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate still face pressure. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,990 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% month - on - month. In May, the electrolytic copper import volume was 253,100 tons, up 1.23% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was 70 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the alumina output was 7.2721 million tons, up 2.66% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.729 million tons, up 3.41% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot output was 606,000 tons, down 0.66% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot output was 261,000 tons, down 0.38% month - on - month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,490 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 1,306 yuan/ton, up 1.22 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. Fundamental Data - In May, the refined zinc output was 549,400 tons, down 1.08% month - on - month; the refined zinc import volume was 28,200 tons, up 2.40% month - on - month [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,250 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,600 yuan/ton, down 7.14% from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel output in May was 35,350 tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; the refined nickel import volume was 8,832 tons, up 8.18% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 12,650 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day. The futures - spot spread was 210 yuan/ton, down 16.00% from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel output (43 enterprises) in April was 1.7912 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month. The stainless - steel import volume was 125,100 tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 61,300 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 59,700 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous day [15]. Fundamental Data - In May, the lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, up 8.34% month - on - month; the lithium carbonate demand was 93,960 tons, up 4.83% month - on - month [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000, while the number of continued jobless claims rose to 1,974,000, the highest since November 2021 [5]. - The annualized quarterly rate of the real GDP final value in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.5%, higher than the expected decrease of 0.2%, showing the first contraction in three years, and personal consumption final value only increased by 0.5% [5]. - Geopolitical conflicts between Israel and Iran eased, and the impact on copper supply and transportation weakened. Trump planned to arrange a Fed chair before Powell's term ended and promote rapid interest - rate cuts [5]. - The basic copper index decreased compared with last week. The supply - side disturbances of copper smelting continued, and the domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low. The estimated output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The domestic electrolytic copper inventory decreased, and the low inventory continued to support the short - term copper price [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The domestic TC maintained a low - level weak quotation, the spot premium strengthened, the US dollar index weakened significantly, and the geopolitical risk eased [8][9][12]. - **Bearish factors**: The demand performance was weak [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Supply - side data** - China's copper ore and concentrate imports in May were 2.3952 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.55% and a year - on - year increase of 6.61%. The deliveries from Chile and Peru both declined [15]. - As of the week of June 20, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.8 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.64 US dollars per dry ton compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate processing fee remained low [19]. - In May, the actual domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The output in June is expected to remain high [21]. - China's scrap copper imports in May were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The deliveries from Thailand, Japan, and the US all declined [24]. - **Demand - side data** - As of June 26, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 900 yuan per ton, which was beneficial to refined copper consumption [28]. - In May, the domestic copper strip output was 210,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.46% but still higher than the same period last year [32]. - In May, the domestic refined copper rod output was 840,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.78% and a year - on - year increase of 23.43%. The domestic recycled copper rod output was 201,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89% and a year - on - year increase of 7.82% [36]. - In May, China's total automobile exports were 551,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.5%. Among them, new - energy vehicle exports were 212,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [40]. - **Inventory and Premium Data** - The LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1.1% in the week of June 20, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on June 26 decreased by 100 tons compared with June 23 [43]. - On June 26, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 70 yuan per ton, showing a decline, while the LME 0 - 3 spot premium increased significantly [47]. 3.4后市研判 The short - term copper market may continue to fluctuate strongly, and the subsequent performance of downstream consumption still needs to be monitored [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The combination of "strong reality + weak expectation" results in no clear and smooth trend for copper prices. The strong reality of the fundamentals limits the decline of copper prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside potential. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate mainly. The "rush - to - export" demand is an over - draft of future demand, and the actual demand side may face pressure in Q3. The main reference range is 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract reference range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. For electrolytic aluminum, the current low - inventory pattern and the expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum support the aluminum price to run strongly, but the pressure of the consumption off - season limits its upside space. The short - term aluminum price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 19,600 - 20,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for recycled aluminum alloy presents a pattern of weak supply and demand, with more prominent contradictions on the demand side. The price of SMM ADC12 runs weakly in a narrow range. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to restrict the upside space of prices. The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, the center of zinc prices may move down. The medium - to - long - term approach is to short on rallies, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - The supply - side recovery progress is slow. Under the strong reality, short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the pessimistic demand expectation, attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery rhythm. The approach is to short on rallies around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan/ton based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [9]. Nickel - The overseas nickel market has high inventory, and the domestic social inventory shows a slight downward trend. The inventory still exerts pressure on the fundamentals. In the short term, the disk is expected to adjust weakly in a range, with the main reference range of 116,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel continue to be weak, with certain support at the ore end, a downward negotiation range for nickel - iron, high stainless - steel production, and overall weak demand and slow inventory reduction. In the short term, there is still pressure under the supply - demand contradiction. The disk is expected to run weakly, with the main operation range of 12,300 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term disk is expected to run weakly in a range. The approach is still to short on rallies, but attention should be paid to the weakening of the short - selling return ratio and the susceptibility to news interference in the short term. The main reference range is 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 90 yuan/ton to 78,415 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.11%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 40 yuan/ton. Other copper prices and premiums also showed corresponding changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of electrolytic copper was 1.1383 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The import volume increased by 1.23% to 253,100 tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 12.39% week - on - week to 712,100 tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased to 75.82%, while that of recycled copper rod production decreased to 29.03% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 110 yuan/ton to 20,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.53%. The monthly spread of some contracts also decreased [3]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of alumina was 7.2721 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.66%. The production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.41%. The operating rate of some aluminum processing industries decreased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,000 yuan/ton. Some monthly spreads changed [4]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.66% to 606,000 tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.38% to 261,000 tons. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.91%. Some monthly spreads decreased [7]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of refined zinc was 549,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%. The import volume increased by 2.40% to 28,200 tons. The operating rate of some zinc - consuming industries showed different trends [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 1,900 yuan/ton to 263,700 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73%. Some monthly spreads increased [9]. Fundamental Data - In May, the import of tin ore increased by 36.39% to 13,449 tons. The production of SMM refined tin decreased by 2.37% to 14,840 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 500 yuan/ton to 119,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.42%. The cost of some nickel production methods decreased [11]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - The production of refined nickel in China decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons. The LME inventory decreased by 0.11% to 203,928 tons [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,600 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.40%. Some monthly spreads changed [14]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) increased by 0.36% to 1.7912 million tons. The import volume of stainless steel decreased by 12.00% to 125,100 tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 59,900 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. Some monthly spreads decreased [18]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.34%. The demand increased by 4.83% to 93,960 tons. The total inventory increased by 1.49% to 97,637 tons [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc., covering market trends, supply - demand relationships, and trading strategies. It emphasizes the impact of factors such as inventory levels, production capacity changes, and macro - economic indicators on metal prices, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for different metals [7][15][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2507 contract closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.4%, with the Shanghai Copper Index adding 10,391 lots to 535,600 lots. Spot premiums declined due to end - of - quarter inventory clearance and capital needs [2]. - **Important Information**: First Quantum Minerals halted operations at the accident area of the Zambian Trident project. Sentinel Copper's 2025 copper production guidance is 20 - 230,000 tons. Jiangxi Shangxin's 80,000 - ton copper product project is under environmental assessment. A new study shows that Ivanhoe Electric's Santa Cruz copper project could produce 72,000 tons of copper cathode annually in the first 15 years [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: Antofagasta insists on a long - term processing fee of - 15 dollars/ton. LME inventory decreased, and the ratio may decline further. Domestic smelters increased refined copper exports, and the spot premium dropped due to end - of - half - year factors. Copper price upside is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, focus on LME delivery risks. For arbitrage, continue to hold the borrow strategy. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2509 contract fell 4 yuan to 2,903 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions declined [11]. - **Important Information**: India's latest alumina deal was 30,000 tons at 366 dollars/ton. Expected end - of - month production capacity may change due to short - term maintenance. Yunnan Aluminum will strengthen bauxite resource acquisition [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the expected production capacity increase may be affected by short - term maintenance, the short - term surplus of bauxite remains. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate between full cost and cash cost of high - cost production capacity [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [16][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2508 contract fell 105 yuan/ton to 20,315 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [19]. - **Important Information**: Israel and Iran agreed to a cease - fire. US and Eurozone PMI data were released. China's May photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly. The Tongliao green - power aluminum project entered the core equipment installation stage [20][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: High aluminum prices led to inventory increases. Low inventory and Middle - East situation uncertainties will affect aluminum prices. After the seasonal off - season in August, low - inventory - driven price differentials may expand [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate widely. For arbitrage, consider a 9 - 12 positive spread later. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 19,625 yuan/ton. Spot prices remained stable [27]. - **Important Information**: May automobile production and sales increased, and new - energy vehicle production and sales grew significantly. Guizhou Guangyu plans a 200,000 - ton recycled aluminum project [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic recycled casting aluminum alloy production slightly decreased, and the market lacks continuous driving forces. Prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to fluctuate with aluminum prices. For arbitrage, consider trading when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [30][31]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 rose 0.85% to 21,920 yuan/ton. Spot premiums remained stable, but downstream purchasing willingness was low [34]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under macro - influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Domestic zinc consumption is in the off - season, and supply has increased significantly in June. Zinc prices may decline with inventory accumulation [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting in the far - month contracts at high prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2508 rose 0.44% to 16,960 yuan/ton. Spot prices and downstream battery production enterprises' procurement were stable [38]. - **Important Information**: As of June 23, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory decreased [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic primary lead smelter operating rates are high, but lead concentrate imports decreased. Recycled lead smelters are in losses. Supply may tighten, and demand is in the off - season. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider going long in the far - month contracts at low prices. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [43]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 fell 420 to 117,630 yuan/ton. Spot premiums of different nickel types changed [45]. - **Important Information**: The wet - process phase III ONC project's tailings pond in Indonesia was completed. LME revised lending rules. Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire [46][47]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and weakening demand in June led to a supply - demand imbalance. LME inventory increased, and nickel prices are expected to decline and test the bottom again [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, consider selling call options [49][52]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract fell 35 to 12,440 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [54]. - **Important Information**: World stainless steel crude steel production in Q1 2025 increased year - on - year. Qing Shan added a public warehouse in Foshan, and its July high - carbon ferrochrome long - term procurement price was flat [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: US tariffs on steel appliances will affect demand. Supply reduction by Chinese and Indonesian steel mills is insufficient, and inventory is difficult to reduce. Nickel ore prices are firm, but NPI prices are falling [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, prices are expected to continue to decline. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [57][58]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai Tin 2507 contract rose 780 to 263,800 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, but trading was light [60]. - **Important Information**: Global PMI data were released, and Congo - Kinshasa and Rwanda will sign a peace agreement [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shanghai Tin continued to fluctuate within a range. Tin ore supply is currently tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness expectation has eased. Demand is in the off - season [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, pay attention to the tin ore resumption rhythm. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [64][65]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,485 yuan/ton, up 1.08%. Spot prices were stable [66][67]. - **Important Information**: May's social electricity consumption data were released [68]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although demand increased in June, production also increased. The supply - demand surplus situation remains. Futures prices rebounded due to market sentiment and downstream procurement. Prices may decline as production increases [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting later. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, participate in Si2511 and Si2512 reverse spreads [71]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 31,085 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. Spot prices declined [73]. - **Important Information**: China's new photovoltaic and wind power installed capacities from January to May 2025 increased significantly [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: In June, polysilicon production increased, and inventory decreased. Silicon wafer prices fell, and spot prices are under pressure. The futures market logic has changed, and prices are expected to decline [75]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [78]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,800 to 60,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices of different types of lithium carbonate declined [79]. - **Important Information**: IEA predicted global lithium production. Relevant departments promoted new - energy vehicle safety management and consumption. A lithium - boron mining project in Tibet was approved [80][81]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market rumors and warrant cancellations led to a price rebound. New - energy vehicle sales may be stimulated, but the growth rate may slow down. Lithium salt plants may resume production in July, and inventory is expected to increase [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider shorting on rebounds. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach. For options, sell out - of - the - money call options [83].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色及新能源周报】 美联储会议基调偏鹰，有色板块高位震荡 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-6-23 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper spot market remains tight, with low domestic inventories and a rapid decline in LME inventories, indicating support for near - term prices. However, macro - disturbances are intensifying, and the uncertainty of the US tariff policy and the tense situation in the Middle East are affecting market sentiment. [6] - From a fundamental perspective, domestic social inventories are at a low level, and LME copper inventories are continuously decreasing. In June, the off - season characteristics are evident, with a decline in power grid orders and weak performance in new energy, photovoltaics, and home decoration. The demand for copper tubes from the air - conditioning industry has weakened, but lower prices can still attract downstream restocking. The supply of copper concentrates is tightening, the spot processing fee TC is continuously weakening, and the supply of recycled copper is in short supply. The probability of future production cuts or shutdowns of overseas smelters is increasing. [6] - Due to the fluctuations in US tariff policies and the tense situation in the Middle East, investors are becoming more cautious about global trade and economic growth. The macro and micro logics lack resonance, and it is expected that the price will not show a trend. However, the low domestic and overseas inventories indicate that there is still upward elasticity when the copper price is low. [6] - In terms of trading strategies, it is recommended to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage, but the large B - structure of LME will lead to losses for short - position roll - over. At the same time, the low - level depletion of domestic inventories allows the Shanghai copper term positive arbitrage to continue to be held. [6] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: The copper price volatility in the four markets continues to be weak. The COMEX copper price volatility is around 17%, and the LME copper price volatility is around 5%. [10] - **Term Spread**: The term B - structure of Shanghai copper has widened, and the LME copper spot premium has increased. The spread between Shanghai copper 07 - 08 has risen from 210 yuan/ton on June 13th to 240 yuan/ton on June 20th. The LME 0 - 3 spread has expanded from a premium of 73.41 US dollars/ton to 274.99 US dollars/ton. The C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed. [12][14] - **Position**: The positions of Shanghai copper, COMEX, LME copper, and international copper have all decreased. The position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 20,700 lots to 531,200 lots. [15] - **Fund and Industrial Position**: The net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased. The net short position of LME commercial has decreased from 67,300 lots on June 6th to 67,000 lots, and the net long position of non - commercial CFTC has increased from 24,100 lots on June 3rd to 26,300 lots on June 10th. [21] - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium has expanded, rising from a premium of 35 yuan/ton on June 13th to 120 yuan/ton on June 20th. The Yangshan Port copper premium has rebounded to 40 US dollars/ton. The US copper premium remains at a high level, the Rotterdam copper premium has risen to 190 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian copper premium has remained stable at 107.5 US dollars/ton. [25][27] - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has declined from 491,300 tons on June 12th to 487,600 tons on June 19th. The domestic social inventory is at a low level, slightly rising from 144,800 tons on June 12th to 145,900 tons on June 19th. The bonded - area inventory has increased from 59,700 tons on June 12th to 64,300 tons on June 19th. The COMEX inventory has increased, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. [34] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 07 contract is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has rebounded rapidly, indicating relatively tight overseas spot markets. [35] 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: The import of copper concentrates has increased year - on - year, with China importing 2.3952 million tons of copper ore and concentrates in May 2025, a year - on - year increase of 5.81%. The port inventory has decreased from 632,000 tons on June 13th to 514,000 tons on June 20th. The processing fee has continued to be weak, with the spot TC at - 44.78 US dollars/ton in the week of June 20th, and the smelter loss is about 3,712 yuan/ton. [38][41] - **Recycled Copper**: The import of recycled copper has decreased year - on - year. In May, the import of recycled copper was 185,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.63%, and the domestic production of recycled copper was 91,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.23%. The price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed, and the import profit has expanded. [42][48] - **Blister Copper**: The import of blister copper has increased, with 74,000 tons imported in April, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In May, the processing fee was at a historically low level, with the southern processing fee at 800 yuan/ton and the import processing fee at 95 US dollars/ton. [53] - **Refined Copper**: The production of domestic refined copper has increased more than expected. In May, the production was 1.1383 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. The import volume has increased, with 253,100 tons imported in May, a year - on - year increase of 1.23%. Attention should be paid to the profitability of copper exports. [56] 3.3 Demand End - **Operating Rate**: In May, the operating rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The operating rate of copper tubes was at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral level. In the week of June 19th, the operating rate of wire and cable declined. [59] - **Profit**: The copper rod processing fee is at a neutral level in the same period of history, and the copper tube processing fee has remained stable. The processing fees of copper plates, strips, and lithium - ion copper foils have weakened. [62][65] - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has remained at a low level. In May, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level. [66] - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods has rebounded, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has increased. In May, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a relatively low level. [69] 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The domestic actual copper consumption has performed well, with the cumulative consumption from January to May at 6.4853 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.52%, and the apparent consumption at 6.5169 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.70%. Power grid investment, home appliances, and new energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption. The power grid investment has accelerated, with a cumulative investment of 140.8 billion yuan from January to April, a year - on - year increase of 14.60%. [74] - **Air - Conditioning and New Energy Vehicles**: In May, the domestic air - conditioning production was 20.812 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%, and the production of new energy vehicles was 1.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.11%. [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [5] Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic long - term contract price is still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. Downstream refined copper rod enterprises report a continuous decline in orders, and there is significant uncertainty in future demand. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous downward pressure on the Fed's interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Market - On June 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,310 yuan/ton, a 0.70% decrease from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,160 yuan/ton and closed at 78,250 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase from the afternoon close [1] Spot Market - In the morning of the previous day, spot copper holders started to lower the premium. The mainstream flat - copper was quoted at a premium of around 400 yuan/ton, and the prices of some brands in Shanghai and Changzhou markets dropped to around a premium of 350 yuan/ton, then were pressed to a premium of 320 - 340 yuan/ton for transactions. The mainstream flat - copper was still quoted at a premium of 380 - 400 yuan/ton with tight supply. Good - quality copper was quoted at a premium of around 420 yuan/ton. In the second trading session, some sources were at a premium of 300 - 320 yuan/ton. The low price stimulated downstream purchases, and the market's purchase and sales sentiment indices increased. Spot copper merchants were worried about the further decline of the premium and actively sold to lock in profits [2] Important Information - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Bank of England kept the interest rate at 4.25% with increasing internal divergence. Traders expect a 50 - basis - point rate cut this year. Geopolitically, Israel aims to eliminate Khamenei, while the White House says Trump has a "great" chance of negotiating with Iran and will decide on attacking Iran in two weeks. Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell and called for a 250 - basis - point rate cut. Domestically, three departments held a video conference on new - energy vehicle safety management, emphasizing no "involution - style" competition [3] - **Mine End**: Troilus Gold reached an agreement with Germany's Aurubis AG for the concentrate purchase of its Quebec copper - gold project. The final agreement is expected to be signed simultaneously with the $7 - billion overall debt - financing plan announced in March 2025. The project was an old mine that produced nearly 70,000 tons of copper from 1996 - 2010. It is estimated to produce an average of 135.4 million pounds of copper equivalent per year over a 22 - year mine life [3] - **Smelting and Import**: The Kutch copper smelter in Gujarat with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons started processing ore this week after multiple delays due to raw - material shortages. It aims to reach full - capacity production as soon as possible, which may take 18 months, and a full - capacity operation would require about 1.6 million tons of copper concentrate supply per year [4] - **Consumption**: In May 2025, China's copper product output was 2.096 million tons, a slight increase from April and a multi - year high for the same period. From January to May, the output was 9.537 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase. In the off - season, the operating rates of copper tubes and rods declined, but cables performed well [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,025 tons to 103,325 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,198 tons to 44,816 tons. On June 16, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.459 million tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Suspended [5] - Option: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 2: Core View - This week, the domestic long - term contract price is still under negotiation, and the spot TC price remains low. The orders of downstream refined copper rod enterprises continue to decline, and there is great uncertainty in future demand. However, due to complex geopolitical factors and continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, the quasi - precious metal attribute of copper may benefit. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 18, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,600 yuan/ton and closed at 78,860 yuan/ton, up 0.37% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session of the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,640 yuan/ton and closed at 78,610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - In the early morning, holders quoted JCC, Lufang, Xiangguang at a premium of 200 - 230 yuan/ton. After traders bought JCC at a low - premium of 170 yuan/ton, the mainstream transaction price weakened. In Changzhou, iron - peak, Honglu, Yuguang copper were traded at a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton. Russian copper was sold at low prices, with transactions from par to a premium of 40 yuan/ton. Holders rushed to sell due to concerns about subsequent warehouse receipts, and the spot premium is expected to decline further [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. The dot - plot shows two rate cuts this year, but the number of officials who expect no rate cuts this year has risen to 7, and the expected rate cuts next year have been reduced to 1. Powell emphasized uncertainty and said the current economic situation requires waiting. He also expects tariff - driven inflation to rise in the coming months. Trump called for a 200 - BP rate cut and said 250 - BP would be better. In China, the 2025 Lujiazui Forum opened, and the central bank announced eight major financial opening - up measures [3] - **Mine End**: Anglo Asian aims to transform into a medium - sized copper - based producer by 2029. Besides the Gilar mine, it plans to put three other mines (Zafar, Xarxar, and Garadag) into production. In 2024, its operations were restricted by environmental closures but resumed at the end of the year, with a total gold - equivalent output of 16,760 ounces [3] - **Smelting and Import**: In April 2025, China's scrap copper (copper waste and scrap) imports were 204,747.956 tons, up 7.92% month - on - month and down 9.43% year - on - year. Japan was the largest supplier, with imports of 32,677.883 tons, up 20.95% month - on - month and 13.72% year - on - year. Thailand was the second - largest supplier, with imports of 25,049.854 tons, up 27.15% month - on - month and 61.91% year - on - year [4] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly. Due to the end of the month, downstream consumption had limited room for improvement. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, market demand was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases on dips [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 107,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons to 47,014 tons. On June 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,700 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons from the previous week [4] Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 77,000 yuan/ton and 77,500 yuan/ton [5] - **Arbitrage**: Suspended [5] - **Option**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [5] Data Table - Various copper - related data are presented in tables and figures, including TC prices, SMM1 copper premium and discount quotes, inventory, warehouse receipts, and price differences [6][27][28]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamentals remained weak, with supply at a high level and demand recovering slowly. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated, with fundamentals under pressure. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand. An approach of shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points is recommended [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore supply. The demand is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - to - long - term, a shorting - on - rallies strategy is suggested, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to see an increase in supply and potential inventory accumulation. The medium - term price is expected to reach the cash cost of 2,700 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is supported in the short - term but may face pressure in Q3, with the price expected to range around 20,000 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Catalog Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.13%. The futures import loss decreased by 5.75%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% [1]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP and external - purchased raw materials for producing electrowon nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. - **New Energy Materials Price**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.36%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed various changes [1]. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62%, and imports increased by 8.18%. Inventories in various regions decreased to different extents [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The spot prices of 304/2B stainless steel remained stable, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 11.54% [4]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%, and the price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36%, imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85% [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased [6]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. In April, imports increased by 56.33% and exports increased by 233.72% [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.11%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 20.74% [8]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased by 1.10% [8]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed significant changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%, and the premium decreased [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased [10]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%, and in April, imports increased by 2.40% and exports increased by 75.76% [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%, and the premium decreased. The prices of alumina in different regions decreased slightly [13]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [13]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% [13]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap spread increased by 1.08% [14]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%, and in April, imports decreased by 19.06% [14].

【重要资讯】 t.）定观：美国梦说院版共和党税协法案计划将债务上限提高至6万亿美元，将原本在众议院版本申设定于2020年到期的三项企业税收减复永久化，但未就"州知地方税扣除"（SMLT） 达成最终协议。美国后肖费瑞通胀5PI 年卒为2.4%低于预期但高于前值，特朗普政府关税政策仍示引动消费试通胀反弹，使美联储9/12月降息预期敬率升高 0617: 国内铜冶炼厂6月检修产能或环减, 国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少+E4:K28F28E4:K29E4:K30E4:K32E4:K30E4:K29E4:K30 | | 变量名称 | 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-13 | 2025-06-06 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78550 | 78010 | 78930 | 540. 00 | 3 | | | 成交量(手) | 76515 | 98873 | 128281 | -22, 358. 00 | Vin | | | 持仓量(手) | 192243 | 193847 | 204 ...