Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is in a complex situation. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle provides an upward - driving logic for copper prices. With mining - end disturbances and the expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, although the market is currently in a state of shock, the copper price is expected to mainly fluctuate upwards as it has previously broken through the shock range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. The US September CPI report is expected to be postponed from the original October 15 release but may still be released before the Fed's FOMC policy meeting on October 28 - 29. Mining - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the hopeless resumption of production in Panama have intensified market concerns about supply. As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.30 dollars/ton and RC was - 4.03 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. In September, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month (a 4.31% decline) and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. Future production is expected to continue to decline. The direction of Document No. 770 of 2025 by the National Development and Reform Commission is unclear, which may affect the scrap - copper operating rate. On the demand side, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, along with new technologies such as new energy vehicles and AI, strengthens downstream expectations. Although the real - estate sector has a negative impact, there is overall rigid support [1]. Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China was 30 yuan/ton. On October 9, 2025, the LME official price was 10875 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 8.5 dollars/ton [3]. Supply Side - As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.3 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.03 cents/pound [6]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous period. As of October 9, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 88,200 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, an increase of 275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 338,200 short tons, an increase of 2,638 short tons from the previous period [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data showed an unexpected decline, far lower than market expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to implement further monetary easing policies [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points, non - manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion [5]. - The US government "shutdown" increased overseas macro - uncertainty, and the release of economic data was delayed, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make accurate monetary policies [5]. - Due to the mud accident at the Indonesian mine, copper supply was disrupted. Domestic smelters were in a high - maintenance period, and refined copper production was expected to decline, but inventory would increase [5]. - High copper prices may suppress consumption in the short - term, but in the medium - term, copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Refined copper production is expected to decline, and the copper concentrate processing fee remains low, indicating tight supply at the mine end [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: Social inventory is accumulating, high copper prices may suppress consumption, and overseas macro - uncertainty has increased [8]. - Overseas political fluctuations have increased, further strengthening the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper Ore Imports**: In August, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.759 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [20]. - **Copper Concentrate TC**: As of the week of September 26, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.66 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The mud accident at the Indonesian mine increased market concerns about copper supply [24]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In August, China's refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In October, domestic smelters will conduct large - scale maintenance, which may lead to a phased tightening of refined copper supply [28]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In August, China's scrap copper imports were 179,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The decline was due to factors such as import losses, extreme weather, and reduced overseas exports [32]. - **Copper Products Output**: In August, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, reaching a high level in the same period over the years [36]. - **Copper Consumption**: The price of refined copper spot has risen significantly, which is not conducive to refined copper consumption. As of October 9, the refined - scrap spread was around 390 yuan per ton [40]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3.79% in the week of September 30. Domestic social inventory increased, with the electrolytic copper spot inventory reaching 167,900 tons on October 9, an increase of 11,200 tons compared with September 29 [55]. - **Spot Premium**: On October 9, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper changed from discount to premium, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [59]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Home Appliance Industry**: In August, the output of household refrigerators increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output of household air conditioners increased by 9.4% year - on - year. However, in the fourth quarter, the home appliance industry is expected to face pressure of slowing growth [44]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In August, real estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion all declined year - on - year. Although some first - tier cities have introduced policies to support the market, the real estate market is still under pressure, and copper demand in the real estate sector remains weak [48]. - **Automobile Industry**: In August, traditional automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also showed strong growth, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively, and the market demand is strong [52]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that copper prices are influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with expectations of increased financial attributes for copper prices, but macroeconomic conditions may not provide substantial support [1][2] - Since September, copper prices have shown a strong performance, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, and disruptions in overseas copper mining operations contributing to price support [1][2] - The recent announcement of a significant mining disruption at Freeport's Grasberg mine and rising strike risks at Antofagasta's Los Pelambres mine have impacted market sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - Domestic smelting plants are expected to undergo large-scale maintenance in October, affecting refined copper output by over 130,000 tons, with supply tightening anticipated in the short term [3] - The cable industry has experienced a slowdown, with an overall operating rate around 70% and high inventory levels, but investment in power distribution networks is expected to accelerate production and sales in the fourth quarter [4] - The air conditioning industry is expected to gradually ramp up production, leading to improved demand for copper pipes, while the automotive sector, particularly driven by new energy vehicles, is projected to continue its upward trend in production and sales [4] Group 3 - Overall, the interplay of various factors suggests that copper prices may have limited room for short-term increases and are likely to enter a phase of high-level consolidation [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, driven by a weak US dollar and supply shortages. Macroscopically, the US government's shutdown and weak employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. Fundamentally, supply shortages in copper mines, such as the ongoing shutdown of the Grasberg mine and disruptions in other mines, have strengthened the support for copper prices. The主力 is advised to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely, with the main contract closing down 0.28%. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the supply was abundant. The supply pressure persisted, with high domestic operating capacity and increasing overseas production. The demand was weak, with electrolytic aluminum plants having high raw material inventories and low procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the short - term spot price of alumina will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the main contract moving up to around 21,000 yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro factors such as the US government shutdown and expectations of Fed rate cuts. In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum production declined slightly in September, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. The demand showed structural characteristics, with some sectors improving but high aluminum prices suppressing downstream orders. After the holiday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the spot premium was under pressure. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices strengthened with the rise of aluminum prices, and the SMM spot ADC12 price also increased. The cost was supported by the rise of LME aluminum during the holiday and the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, and the demand showed a mild recovery but with limited volume. The domestic social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the import loss expanded. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract operating between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices maintained a strong operation, supported by low inventory and a weak US dollar. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the US government shutdown led to a weak US dollar index. Domestically, the supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The "strong outside, weak inside" pattern of zinc prices has been obvious since the second half of 2025. The short - term price of Shanghai zinc may rise due to macro - driving factors, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. It may maintain an oscillation pattern, with the main contract between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - Tin prices strengthened. The supply of tin ore remained tight, with low processing fees for smelters. Domestic tin ore imports in August were at a low level, and the crackdown on illegal tin mines in Indonesia before the holiday increased supply concerns. The demand was weak, with insufficient orders in the solder industry due to the sluggish consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. The follow - up depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar. If the supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [9]. Nickel - After the holiday, the nickel market showed a strong trend, driven by macro - sentiment and the overall boost of the non - ferrous sector. The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of the Fed's rate - cut path affected the market. In the industry, the policy expectations for the Indonesian nickel ore end have increased. The nickel ore price remained firm, but the nickel - iron market was sluggish, and the demand for stainless steel was weak. The demand for nickel sulfate was good in the peak season, but there were concerns about new production capacity and sustainable demand in the medium term. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, the stainless steel market rose slightly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the chromium - iron market was driven by demand and cost. The supply pressure was increasing, with an expected increase in steel production in September. The demand improvement was not obvious, and the social inventory decline was slow. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - On the first trading day after the holiday, the lithium carbonate market oscillated. The main contract LC2511 rose 0.27%. The supply - side news included the approval of mining reports by Guoxuan High - tech and the acquisition of a mining license by Zangge Mining. The fundamentals were in a tight balance during the peak season. The production increased last week, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. The demand was optimistic, with expected increases in iron - lithium and ternary orders. The whole - chain inventory continued to decline last week, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream seasonal restocking. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 85,740 yuan/ton, up 3.00% from the previous day. The premium/discount of SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained unchanged at 15 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed varying degrees of increase, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. In August, electrolytic copper imports were 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased, and the operating rates of copper rod production decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The premium/discount decreased. Alumina prices in various regions declined. The import loss of aluminum increased, and the monthly spread showed different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of some aluminum processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions increased by about 0.95 - 0.96%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions also increased. The monthly spread showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased. The operating rates of some enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The import loss decreased slightly, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. In August, refined zinc imports increased by 43.30%. The operating rates of zinc - related industries decreased slightly, and the inventory of zinc showed different changes [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose to 284,200 yuan/ton, up 2.53%. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased significantly [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased slightly. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of tin decreased in different markets [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread changed [11]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased slightly, while imports decreased. The inventory in different markets showed different trends, with an increase in LME inventory [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the monthly spread changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while imports increased and exports increased slightly. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, and the price of lithium - spodumene concentrate decreased. The monthly spread changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased, and the demand also increased. The inventory decreased in different links, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [14].

10月9日，A股市场放量走强，三大指数全线上涨。黄金、稀土、核聚变、铜产业、存储芯片等板块表 现亮眼，整个市场超3100只股票上涨。机构认为，在多种因素综合影响下，A股有望延续震荡上行态 势。 "国家支持和鼓励正常的市场竞争，对价格无序竞争的经营者，公告提出三方面监管措施。"上述负责人 表示，一是提醒告诫。对涉嫌价格无序竞争的经营者进行提醒告诫，要求其自觉规范价格行为，严守价 格竞争底线。二是监管执法。（下转A02版） （上接A01版）对提醒告诫后仍未规范价格行为的经营者予以重点关注，必要时开展成本调查、价格监 督检查，发现价格违法违规问题的，依法予以查处。三是失信惩戒。充分发挥信用监管作用，依法依规 实施失信惩戒。 依法依规治理企业无序竞争 在规范招标投标行为方面，公告明确，经营者应当严格遵守《中华人民共和国招标投标法》《中华人民 共和国招标投标法实施条例》规定，自觉规范招标投标行为，不得以低于成本的报价竞标，保障产品和 服务质量。 ● 本报记者 欧阳剑环 国家发展改革委10月9日消息，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局近日印发《关于治理价格无序竞争 维护 良好市场价格秩序的公告》。公告根据现行法律法规，按照事前 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increased positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, copper mine supply is tightened due to mine shutdowns, and domestic smelting capacity may converge. On the demand side, supported by the traditional peak season and policies, the industry's overall outlook is positive. In terms of inventory, with positive consumption expectations and the development of power and new energy industries, refined copper demand may increase significantly, and the previously accumulated social inventory may gradually decline. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows double - lines above the 0 - axis with expanding red bars. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position trading with a bullish bias and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,750 yuan/ton, up 3,640 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,864 dollars/ton, up 195 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 221,715 lots, up 7,856 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 6,648 lots, up 1,387 lots. LME copper inventory is 139,200 tons, down 225 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 95,034 tons, down 3,745 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 8,125 tons, down 175 tons; the warrants of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 29,703 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 85,740 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 85,915 yuan/ton, up 2,815 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 54 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,010 yuan/ton, down 1,140 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 29.52 dollars/ton, up 7.21 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 275.93 million tons, up 19.92 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 40.36 dollars/kiloton, up 0.44 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,200 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 76,900 yuan/metal ton, up 2,860 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.10 million tons, up 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 57,040 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 70,550 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.19 million tons, up 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 3,795.76 billion yuan, up 480.79 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 60,309.19 billion yuan, up 6,729.42 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,250,287.10 thousand pieces, down 438,933.60 thousand pieces [2] Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 20.52%, up 5.97 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 15.36%, up 3.95 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 24.79%, up 0.0346 percentage points. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.48, up 0.1057 [2] Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that officials are willing to cut interest rates further this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy easing may be appropriate this year, and inflation is expected to remain high in the short term and then gradually fall to 2%. Fed's Logan expects a slight rise in unemployment and advocates caution in interest - rate cuts; Goolsbee warns against premature rate cuts. S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook and may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points per week. It is expected that there will be two 25 - basis - point rate cuts by the end of this year and another 50 - basis - point easing in 2026. China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce will carry out pilot projects on new consumption models and improve the international consumption environment, with central financial subsidies for pilot cities for two years. Many new - energy vehicle companies released September delivery data, with some achieving high - growth or record - high results. The International Copper Study Group predicts a 178,000 - ton surplus in global refined copper in 2025 and a 150,000 - ton shortage in 2026. It expects global copper mine output to grow by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, and global refined copper output to grow by about 3.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. Goldman Sachs raises its 2026 copper price forecast from $10,000/ton to $10,500/ton, maintains the 2027 forecast at $10,750/ton, and expects copper prices to stay at $10,000/ton for the rest of 2025 [2]

Market Overview - On October 9, the A-share market opened strongly after the holiday, with all three major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.32% to close at 3933.97 points, marking the highest level since August 2015 [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.47% to 13725.56 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.73% to 3261.82 points, both reaching new highs since February 2022 [2] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has been the standout performer in the A-share market, with a year-to-date increase of 77.56%, outperforming hardware equipment (59.07%) and semiconductors (58.74%) [2] - On October 9, the non-ferrous metals, hardware equipment, and semiconductor stocks saw significant gains, with the non-ferrous metals sector rising by 6.67% [6] Notable Stocks - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, such as Western Superconducting (688122.SH), Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH), and Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), hit the daily limit up [6] - Gold stocks also performed well, with companies like Shandong Gold (600547.SH) and Zhongjin Gold (600589.SH) reaching historical highs [6] Global Influences - International gold prices surged past $4000 per ounce, contributing to the rise in domestic gold prices, which reached 1160 yuan per gram [6] - The recent increase in prices for various non-ferrous metals, including copper, tin, cobalt, zinc, and aluminum, was noted during the holiday period [7] Future Outlook - Analysts predict a "shaking upward" trend for the market in October, with expectations of continued inflow of capital and a stable upward trajectory for indices [8] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session is anticipated to influence market sentiment positively, while the third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show a rebound in profitability across most sectors [8][9]

Report Title - "Industrial Macroeconomics Favors Copper Prices, Focus on Domestic Policies - October Copper Monthly Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In September, copper prices showed a strong trend with a monthly increase of 4.96%. As of September 30, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 83,350 yuan/ton. With potential domestic policies in October and current mine - end disturbances and macro - level positives, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly [5]. - Technically, the operating center of Shanghai copper has been continuously rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough trend [83]. - Considering macro and fundamental factors, copper prices are expected to remain high in October, and it is recommended to hold long positions on dips [89][90]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, Shanghai copper prices were strong. At the beginning of the month, the domestic macro - environment was warm, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut due to the cooling of the US employment market and in - line CPI boosted copper prices. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, copper prices slightly corrected. Supply disruptions from the Freeport Indonesia mining area and shortages in copper concentrates, along with reduced refined copper production in September and low inventories, supported copper prices [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomics - In the US, the August CPI showed a slight increase, and inflation pressure remained. The slowdown in employment led the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The September non - farm data has not been released, and the ADP employment data declined, indicating a weak employment market [9][12]. - The US manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service industry was stagnant. The US dollar index weakened due to the interest rate cut, and Treasury yields rose significantly [14]. Domestic Macroeconomics - In China, the CPI turned negative in August, and the PPI showed improvement. The social financing scale increased year - on - year, and local government special bond issuance was front - loaded in 2025 [16]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI improved, and the overall economy maintained an expansion trend. Fixed - asset investment and industrial added - value showed certain growth [18]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine - end Supply - From January to July, the global copper concentrate production was stable, but the Freeport Indonesia mining area's accident disrupted supply, and the fourth - quarter production and sales of the Grasberg mine are expected to decline significantly. Domestic copper concentrate port inventories are at a low level [28]. Smelting End - The copper concentrate spot smelting fee (TC) remained at a historical low, and the processing fees for domestic and imported copper also decreased, indicating a tight supply of copper mines [30]. Refined Copper - In September, the production of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month due to smelter maintenance and supply shortages of anode plates. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product, remained strong, offsetting some losses at the smelting end [32]. Import and Export - In August, China's imports of refined copper, unforged copper and copper products, and copper ore all increased year - on - year. The import profit of copper was negative, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly [35]. Scrap Copper - In August, scrap copper imports increased steadily. The spread between refined and scrap copper widened in September, leading to stockpiling by some holders [39]. Processing Links - In August, the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods showed slight changes. The overall downstream operating rate was weak, but the copper foil operating rate increased due to strong downstream demand [41][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to August, investment in power projects was stable, and the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power increased significantly [49]. - The real estate market was still at the bottoming stage in August, with a decline in completion and new construction areas. Attention should be paid to potential real - estate policies after the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [52][55]. - In August, the production of new - energy vehicles increased significantly, and policies continued to support high - level production and sales [56]. - In August, the production of household appliances showed resilience, and it is expected to maintain this trend under the influence of policies [58]. Inventory - As of October 3, SHFE copper inventories increased but remained at a low level. As of September 29, domestic social copper inventories increased month - on - month but were still near the annual low [62]. - As of September 30, COMEX copper inventories increased, LME copper inventories decreased slightly, and global visible copper inventories increased [67]. Premiums and Discounts - In September, the domestic spot premium of copper weakened, and the LME 0 - 3 discount narrowed [73]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of September 30, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly, and the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased [75]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the center of gravity of Shanghai copper has been rising, with a short - term operating range of 81,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton and a potential upward breakthrough [83]. 5. Outlook - Macroeconomic factors: The Fed's interest rate cut in September boosted copper prices. The US employment situation is not optimistic, and there may be more interest rate cuts. China's economic data has slowed down, and counter - cyclical policies are expected to be strengthened [89]. - Fundamental factors: The supply of copper mines has been disrupted, and although the supply pressure is not obvious due to imports, terminal consumption is weak. Inventories are at a low level, which supports copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain high in October [90].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly ahead of the National Day holiday, with expectations for continued volatility post-holiday due to supply constraints and macroeconomic factors [1][2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper supply is tight, primarily due to disruptions at major mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has declared force majeure, exacerbating supply issues [1][3][4]. - In September, the average price of 1 copper in China was 80,775 yuan/ton, reflecting a 2.11% increase from August and a 7.99% year-on-year rise [2]. - The production of refined copper in China is expected to decline further due to ongoing maintenance at smelters and tight supply of anode plates [4]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The Shanghai copper futures market saw a significant increase, with the main contract reaching a high of 83,820 yuan/ton, marking a 3.4% rise since September 25 [2][4]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price also hit a 16-month high, reaching $10,800/ton, with a cumulative increase of over 3% during the National Day holiday [2][3]. Investment Implications - Companies with their own mining resources and strong cost control are expected to benefit the most from rising copper prices, while those reliant on purchased raw materials may face margin pressures [7][9]. - The financial attributes of copper are becoming more pronounced, with increased speculative buying following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, reminiscent of inflationary periods in the 1970s [5][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to exhibit a strong oscillating pattern in the fourth quarter, with the main contract expected to trade between 79,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are likely to support copper demand, particularly in sectors like electric grids and new energy vehicles [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly before the National Day holiday, with expectations for continued volatility post-holiday due to supply constraints and macroeconomic factors [1][2][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - On September 30, copper futures reached a new high of 83,820 yuan/ton, marking the highest level since May 31 of the previous year [1]. - The average price of 1 copper in September was 80,775 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.11% and a year-on-year increase of 7.99% [2]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price hit a 16-month high of $10,800/ton on October 6, with a cumulative increase of over 3% during the National Day holiday [2]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - Global copper supply is under pressure, particularly due to disruptions at major mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which has declared force majeure [1][3]. - The processing fees for copper concentrate have dropped significantly, indicating that smelters are facing financial strain, which may lead to reduced refined copper output [3][4]. - China's electrolytic copper production in September was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month-on-month, with further declines expected in October [4]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The demand for copper remains resilient, supported by traditional consumption peaks in the "golden September and silver October" period, alongside government policies promoting investment in infrastructure and renewable energy [4][10]. - The financial attributes of copper have become more pronounced, with speculative buying increasing following the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [5][6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to exhibit a strong oscillating pattern in the fourth quarter, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 79,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton [10]. - There is a potential for a price correction if downstream demand does not keep pace with high prices, which could create buying opportunities [8][10]. Group 5: Impact on Industry Players - Companies with their own mining resources and strong cost control are likely to benefit the most from rising copper prices, while those reliant on purchased raw materials may face margin pressures [7][10]. - Downstream industries, such as home appliances and automotive, are advised to use copper futures and options to hedge against rising costs [10][11].