证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 星期三 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘震荡分化，创业板指收涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3909.52 | -0.37% | -14.56 | | | 深证成指 | 13277.36 | -0.39% | -52.63 | | | 沪深 300 | 4598.22 | -0.51% | -23.53 | | | 创业板 | 3209.60 | 0.61% | 19.33 | | | 科创 50 | 1347.11 | -0.27% | -3.69 | | | 北证 50 | 1401.73 | -1.72% | -24.51 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万行业表现前五 | | | 申万行业表现后五 | 概 | 念板块表现前五 | 概念板块表现后五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合 | 3.45% | ...

Group 1 - The government is placing significant emphasis on resolving existing real estate issues, particularly focusing on the clearance of unsold properties, which raises concerns about market stability in a weak market environment [1] - In recent years, the government has invested substantial resources to mitigate risks associated with unfinished real estate projects, with expectations of market stabilization by early 2025 [3] - Banks are increasingly selling properties directly, with institutions like Sichuan Rural Credit offering 24,000 properties for sale, indicating a shift in strategy to recover cash flow [3] Group 2 - The properties being sold by banks differ from those auctioned through courts, as the banks are the legal owners, allowing for direct transfer of ownership upon payment [7] - The starting prices for bank-owned properties are significantly lower than market value, with examples showing properties listed at around 70% of their market price [7] - To enhance property sales, banks are hiring professionals for real estate operations, indicating a strategic shift towards converting real estate assets into cash flow [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the case of Guo, a former director of a supply and marketing cooperative, who is implicated in serious violations of party regulations, including excessive hospitality and corruption, leading to his expulsion from the party and criminal prosecution for bribery and embezzlement [1][5]. Summary by Sections Basic Case Facts - Guo joined the Communist Party in April 2003 and held various positions, including director of the supply and marketing cooperative in B Town, A County. In 2022, during the liquidation of the cooperative, it was found that Guo had not performed his duties adequately, leading to his dismissal [2][3]. Violations of Regulations - From October 2020 to July 2021, the cooperative, under Guo's direction, violated regulations by providing cigarettes and high-end alcohol during business receptions, totaling 18,800 yuan. Guo is directly responsible for these actions [3][11][14]. Criminal Charges - Guo is charged with bribery for accepting 1,142,000 yuan from a real estate company between 2005 and 2009, and embezzlement for misappropriating 627,000 yuan of public funds from 2015 to 2017, which he later returned [3][5][17]. Investigation and Disciplinary Actions - The A County Discipline Inspection Commission initiated an investigation on July 19, 2024, leading to Guo's expulsion from the party on September 27, 2024, and subsequent criminal prosecution for bribery and embezzlement [4][5]. Court Proceedings - On June 6, 2025, the A County People's Court sentenced Guo to five years in prison and imposed fines totaling 200,000 yuan for his crimes, with the judgment already in effect [6]. Definition of State Staff - The article discusses whether Guo qualifies as a state worker, concluding that he is considered a public servant due to his appointed role in the cooperative, which was managed under state guidelines [7][10]. Misconduct in Hospitality - The cooperative's management established strict rules against excessive hospitality, which Guo violated by approving inappropriate expenses during receptions, reflecting a broader issue of misconduct in public service [11][12][13]. Calculation of Bribery Amounts - Guo's acceptance of bribes was calculated at 1,142,000 yuan, with the article explaining that returning funds after being investigated does not negate the crime of bribery [15][18].

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged to a historic high of $60, significantly outperforming gold, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to 69, the lowest since July 2021 [2][41] - Standard Chartered's Suki Cooper noted that while silver's price momentum is supported by strong fundamentals, normalization of market dynamics may lead to short-term volatility [2][41] - The recent increase in silver prices is expected to face a correction before reaching new highs, influenced by reduced demand in India and replenished London inventories [2][41] Group 2 - The major asset restructuring between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang has been terminated due to unfavorable market conditions and the complexity of the transaction [3][42] - Both companies stated that the termination of the transaction will not adversely affect their production, operations, or financial status [3][42] Group 3 - The AI sector is experiencing a global investment shift, with international funds increasingly targeting China's technology sector due to its valuation advantages and complete industrial ecosystem [5][44] - Despite concerns over potential AI bubbles, major asset management firms continue to view artificial intelligence as a core investment theme for 2026 [5][44] - The Chinese technology sector is becoming a new battleground for global capital, driven by its manufacturing capabilities and market potential [5][44] Group 4 - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1,520 yuan per bottle, a 43% decrease over two years, nearing the official price of 1,499 yuan [6][45] - There are speculations regarding whether the manufacturer has stopped supplying distributors to control prices amid this decline [6][45] Group 5 - A new platform for the consolidation of polysilicon production capacity has been established, named Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [7][46] - This platform aims to explore strategic cooperation opportunities within the industry, including technology upgrades and market expansion [7][46] Group 6 - The second-hand housing market in four first-tier cities has seen a significant recovery, with cumulative transactions reaching 519,000 units by November, surpassing the previous year's figures [8][47] - Analysts predict that this trend may continue into 2026, supported by expected monetary policy easing [8][47]

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 有色金属转债能否再起趋势性行情？ ——可转债周报 20251206 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 有色金属板块在 2020 年 10 月至 2021 年 11 月期间呈现持续超额收益，行情以 2021 年 6 月 为界分两阶段，后期转债与权益同步走强。当周权益端有色金属板块整体表现较好，而转债平 均剩余期限偏短，促转股意愿或较强，规模较 2021 年收缩，或可关注有色金属转债的后续行 情。当周 A 股整体偏强，创业板指相对突出，周期制造类行业表现较好，板块拥挤度变化有所 分化。可转债市场整体走强，中小盘表现较稳健，估值整体有所拉伸，成交集中在电力设备、 电子等板块。一级市场平稳推进，条款博弈有所延续，对估值结构或有扰动。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120004 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BWI629 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 有 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China MCC) announced a significant transaction involving the sale of various assets to China Minmetals, aimed at optimizing resource allocation and focusing on core business areas [2][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - China MCC plans to sell 100% equity of MCC Real Estate and related debts to Minmetals Real Estate, along with 100% equity of several subsidiaries to China Minmetals [1][2]. - The total transaction price is approximately 60.676 billion yuan, constituting an associated transaction rather than a major asset restructuring [2]. - The sale of MCC Real Estate accounts for over half of the total transaction value, approximately 31.24 billion yuan, despite a significant discount from its assessed value of 46.17 billion yuan due to market value decline [5][6]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - This transaction is part of a broader strategy to respond to the central government's call for state-owned enterprises to focus on their main responsibilities and optimize resource allocation [2][3]. - Post-transaction, China MCC will concentrate on metallurgical engineering, non-ferrous and mining engineering, high-end infrastructure, industrial construction, and emerging industries, enhancing its core competitiveness and sustainable profitability [2][3]. - The transaction is expected to lead to a new round of personnel and structural adjustments, helping both companies focus on their strengths and reduce competition [4]. Group 3: Industry Context - The merger between China MCC and China Minmetals marks another significant consolidation in the state-owned enterprise sector, following previous mergers like CSR and CNR [3]. - China Minmetals, established in 1950, has a total asset value exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan and is ranked 86th in the Fortune Global 500 [3]. - Both companies have faced challenges in recent years, with declining revenues and profits attributed to the deep adjustment in the real estate sector [7].

近期，破产重整共益债融资事件频频出现。 38家苏宁系公司获中信金融与东方资产联合体80亿元共益债驰援，定向用于4个项目的盘活及复工续 建；哪吒汽车母公司合众新能源启动1亿元共益债融资，用于维持核心生产线运营及车主售后服务等。 上述案例跨越商业地产与新能源造车赛道，共同指向一个核心命题——共益债如何成为困境企业"续 命"与"重生"的关键工具。 共益债融资频现 近日，哪吒汽车母公司合众新能源汽车股份有限公司发布共益债投资人招募公告，面向社会公开招募共 益债投资人，计划融资总额不超过1亿元。本次融资为共益债务融资，所借款项及产生的利息等费用依 法认定为债务人的共益债务。所筹资金将专项用于支付维持债务人核心业务继续运营的必要开支(如水 电费、基础运维人员工资等)，支付对债务人核心生产线设备等的维护、修缮及保值增值费用，以及为 储存机器设备、生产、售后物资所需的仓库租金、物业费等。 同时，38家苏宁系公司的共益债融资也有了新进展。中信金融资产管理股份有限公司江苏省分公司与中 国东方资产管理股份有限公司江苏省分公司拟组成联合体，提供最高80亿元共益债借款，专项用于苏宁 4个在建地产项目的盘活续建。 记者梳理发现，今年以来 ...

【深圳商报讯】（记者 钟国斌）12月8日晚，中国中冶公告称，公司拟以606.76亿元的价格，出售资产 给中国五矿集团有限公司（下称"中国五矿"），以及中国五矿的全资子公司五矿地产控股有限公司（下 称"五矿地产控股"）。 12月9日，中国中冶股价大幅下跌。截至收盘，中国中冶A股跌停，中国中冶H股下跌21.01%。 根据公告，中国中冶拟将所持有的中冶置业100%股权及对中冶置业的标的债权一并出售给五矿地产控 股；将所持有的有色院、中冶铜锌、瑞木镍钴100%的股权以及中冶金吉67.02%的股权出售给中国五 矿，公司控股子公司中国华冶拟将其持有的华冶杜达100%的股权出售给中国五矿或其指定主体。 中国中冶通过本次交易获得的资金，将主要用于强化核心主业冶金建设，夯实新型工业化和新型城镇化 等两大主体业务，培育工程服务、新型材料、高端装备、能源环保、数智应用等五大特色业务。 2025年前三季度，中国中冶实现营业收入3350.94亿元，同比下降18.79%；归母净利润为39.70亿元，同 比下降41.88%；扣非后净利润为30.51亿元，同比下降45.74%。 公开信息显示，中国五矿为中国中冶的控股股东，也是由中央直接管理 ...

4、今天的市场焦点无疑是CPO概念。直接催化因素是有关英伟达被允许向中国出售H200 AI芯片的消息。虽然附加了条件，但强化了全球AI算力投资高景 气的预期，为国产算力产业链带来了明确的订单预期。相关龙头股大幅上涨，对创业板指数贡献显著。 来源：股市你金哥 1、最核心的压力来自外部环境。美联储最新会议纪要流露出"鹰派"姿态，暗示明年降息步伐可能慢于预期。且，临近公布基准利率的时间，市场给出的概 率一直没有超过90%，引发市场担忧。同时，日本央行加息在即，这可能引发全球套息交易平仓，导致资金从新兴市场回流。给以A股方面风险资产带来压 力。 2、以有色金属、房地产、煤炭、券商为代表的传统周期板块和金融板块今日表现不佳。这主要受全球大宗商品价格波动、美元走强以及结构调整的影响， 直接导致A股相关板块全线回调。 3、临近年底，A股市场本身也面临一些压力。近期出现了密集的减持潮，且整体成交额较前一日有所萎缩，反映出资金观望情绪较浓。部分权重板块如券 商股表现疲软，也对大盘指数形成了拖累。 一、今日A股复盘： 今天A股分化涨跌十分严重，个股普跌，超4000只个股下跌。我认为有以下原因： 书写不易，劳心劳力！ 5、CPO龙 ...

（来源：燕财局） 咱们国家一年当中有4次重要经济研判会议和1次核心年度经济会议，而五次之中2次通常集中在12月。 前者的4次都由政治局主持召开，时间通常在每年的4月、7月、10月和12月，对当前经济形势进行分析和研判，尤其是12月那场通常专门研究下一年经济 工作，并为接下来（也在12月）的中央经济工作会议做准备。 后者的1次核心年度经济会议，也就是中央经济工作会议，主要任务是总结当年经济工作，分析研判经济形势，并部署下一年的经济发展规划。 换言之，今年12月有两场会议，第一场是政治局会议，这场会议会专门分析研判2026年该怎么走，给2026年经济工作定调；第二场则是之后的中央经济会 议，这场会议会完善更多的执行细则。 明眼人都能看出来，显然12月的这场政治局经济会议尤为重要，因为它将直接关系到房贷利息会不会降、收入会不会涨、养老金和育儿补贴会不会增加， 国家政策将重点向哪些产业行业板块倾斜，等等。 相当于是对2026年经济宏观政策的抢先预告，分量可以说几乎是全年之最。 上到企商界佬、投资精英，下到炒股的牛散，甚至都要逐字研究每句话背后的含义。 作者 | 燕大 12月重磅会议，给2026年经济划下大方向！ 而昨 ...