Core View - The report describes the author's experience of participating in a lantern riddle event during the Lantern Festival, highlighting the integration of professional terms in the riddle and the contrast between the market's uncertainty and the stability of life, expressing the author's determination to face the market and the reliance on the warmth of life [2][3][4] Summary by Related Content Lantern Festival Experience - The author, an energy and chemical futures analyst, participates in a lantern riddle event on the Lantern Festival, enjoying the city's fireworks and the fun of riddle - guessing [2] - Riddles at the event contain many "industry jargons", such as the riddle about futures and the "stop - loss line" [2] Market Discussion - While enjoying the Lantern Festival, the author's colleagues still discuss the market, with concerns about the Middle East situation and the potential jump - up of post - holiday crude oil prices [3] Reflection on Life and Market - The author believes that the Lantern Festival for futures people is a reconciliation between "certainty" and "uncertainty", and the warmth of life can be the confidence to face market fluctuations [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of Iron Ore 2605 are all in a state of shock or shock - weakening. It's advisable to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved, and the ore price is oscillating at a low level [2] - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has changed. The demand improvement is limited, while the supply has returned to a high level. The ore fundamentals are relatively weak, and the medium - term oversupply concern remains. The ore price will still be under pressure, and it's expected to continue the low - level oscillation, with attention paid to the resumption of steel mill production [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2605, short - term trend is "shock", medium - term is "shock", and intraday is "shock - weakening". The reference view is to focus on the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved, leading to low - level oscillation of the ore price [2] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is stable with continuous increase in terminal ore consumption, but steel market contradictions are accumulating, limiting demand improvement. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals continue to decline, but miner shipments have increased significantly. According to the shipping schedule, subsequent arrivals will rise, and domestic ore production is also recovering, so the ore supply has returned to a high level. The ore price will be under pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the impact of steel mill resumption of production should be noted [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro Outlook**: China's post - holiday market is active with increased trading volume and risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to see better performance from IC than IH. The bond market has limited short - term odds and should be traded with a band strategy. Global economic factors such as US - China trade talks, exchange rate fluctuations, and geopolitical events impact the market. The smartphone and automotive industries face challenges, while the real estate market shows signs of recovery in some areas [7][14][15]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, steel and iron ore are expected to oscillate, and the future of these markets depends on demand. Some commodities like lithium carbonate are expected to be bullish in the short - term, while others like沪锌 and沪铅 may continue to be under pressure [16][25][29]. 3. Summary by Category **Macro News** - **Trade and Policy**: The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations is upcoming. The central bank supports cross - border RMB inter - bank financing. The RMB has appreciated rapidly against the US dollar [7]. - **Resource and Energy**: Zimbabwe bans the export of raw minerals and lithium concentrates, which impacts the lithium market. The third - round of indirect talks between Iran and the US ends, with significant differences remaining [7][8]. - **Financial and Market**: Compensation for investors affected by the valuation adjustment of Guotou Silver LOF starts. IDC predicts a 12.9% year - on - year decline in global smartphone shipments in 2026. Multiple smartphone brands plan price adjustments. The Chinese brand passenger vehicle sales decline in January 2026. The real estate market in some areas shows signs of recovery [8][9]. **Macro Finance** - **Stock Index Futures**: After the holiday, the A - share market is active. It is expected that IC will perform better than IH due to different sector performances and increased risk appetite [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is weak after the "Shanghai Seven" policy for the property market. Without interest - rate cut expectations, it is difficult for bond yields to decline further. Attention should be paid to the government's monetary and fiscal policies [15]. **Black Metals** - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The current supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is unlikely to be a large price change. The future market depends on the start of steel demand. Iron ore supply is abundant [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of coal mines and downstream demand [19]. - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, it is not recommended to chase long positions after a large increase. Silicon iron long positions are recommended. Attention should be paid to the start - up of semi - coke plants [20]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and demand [21]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices will oscillate due to unstable macro - environment and inventory accumulation. In the long - term, tight raw material supply supports prices [23]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc inventories are increasing, and previous short positions should be held [25]. - **Lead**: Social lead inventories are at a 5 - month high. Previous short positions can be held, but lead consumption may improve in March [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, it is expected to be bullish due to increased demand and supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to buying opportunities on pull - backs [29]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon will have a wide - range oscillation. Caution is advised in operation [31]. **Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: Domestically, it is expected to be bullish, and low - buying and rolling operations are recommended. Attention should be paid to the demand after the holiday and international factors [34]. - **Sugar**: There is a short - term supply surplus, but the domestic sugar price may rebound due to restocking demand. It is in a low - level oscillation [35]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the spot price is weak, and the futures price will oscillate. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and old - hen culling [37]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple prices will remain stable, and the overall price will oscillate in a range [38]. - **Corn**: The futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. After the holiday, corn trading has not fully recovered, and there are supply pressures [39]. - **Jujubes**: Currently, the price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the sales in the sales area and the mentality of buyers [40]. - **Hogs**: After the holiday, the market has a supply - demand imbalance with more supply. It is not recommended to short near - month futures contracts [41]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a game between geopolitical risks and fundamental oversupply. The upside space is limited [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, and the short - term focus is on the impact of oil prices dominated by geopolitics [44]. - **Plastics**: Polyolefins have large supply pressure but are slightly supported by rising raw material prices. An oscillating and weakening trend is expected [45]. - **Rubber**: In March, the downstream export orders are good, and there is support at the cost side. Caution is advised when chasing long positions [46]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: There is still room for decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in butadiene and downstream devices [47]. - **Methanol**: The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but there may be a price correction. Attention should be paid to port inventory and Iranian supply [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand and the impact of warehouse receipts [49]. - **Asphalt**: It follows oil price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to restocking demand after winter storage in March [51]. - **PVC**: In the short - term, it may be bullish, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction remains. Caution is advised [52]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: In the short - term, the supply - demand situation is under pressure, and prices follow oil price fluctuations. Consider long - short spreads for PX and PTA 5 - 9 contracts [53]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: In the absence of further geopolitical escalation, the main contract is expected to be bearish [54]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is at a new high, and the market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and price increases of finished products [56]. - **Logs**: The forward spot price is supported by cost, and attention should be paid to the impact of new delivery rules and market sentiment [57]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate bearishly. Attention should be paid to the difference between agricultural and industrial demand [57].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index)**: The Chicago Fed President suggests that if inflation falls, the Fed may cut interest rates multiple times. The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [1][12][13]. - **Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures)**: A - shares are in a volatile consolidation phase with increasing trading volume. The spring rally is likely not over. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble are deepening, increasing short - term correction pressure on technology stocks, but they are still optimistic in the medium - term [2][16]. - **Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures)**: The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. Before other negative factors emerge, the bond market is unlikely to fall continuously. However, potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March still exist [3][18]. - **Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Brazil imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. The inventory of the five major steel products continued to increase significantly, and the fundamental pressure is prominent. The rebound in steel prices due to short - term real estate policies is expected to be limited [4][23]. - **Agricultural Products (Sugar)**: Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February. India's sugar production estimate for this season was significantly reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons, which will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus [5][33]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe. In the short - term, a bullish view is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [6][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee reiterates that if there is more evidence of inflation moving towards the Fed's 2% target, interest rates could be further cut in 2026. Fed Vice - Chair for Supervision Bowman says regulators will release a revised bank capital reform proposal by the end of March [11]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister claims progress in US - Iran negotiations, causing a decline in market risk appetite and a lower US Dollar Index. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 4146.63 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.29%. The trading volume increased to 2.56 trillion yuan. AI - related stocks were affected by NVIDIA's earnings, and some sectors had significant movements [14]. - The spring rally is likely not over due to increasing trading volume. Concerns about the overseas AI bubble may lead to short - term corrections in technology stocks, but they are still promising in the medium - term. It is recommended to hold stock index long positions evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on February 26, with a net withdrawal of 7.95 billion yuan [17]. - Stabilizing real estate policies are temporary disturbances. The bond market is unlikely to fall continuously in the short - term, but potential risks such as the "Two Sessions" and supply pressure in March exist. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and face adjustment risks in the long - term [18][19]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Brazil imposed a 5 - year anti - dumping duty of 284.98 - 709.63 US dollars per ton on Chinese galvanized and aluminized zinc - coated steel coils. South Korea made a final anti - dumping ruling on hot - rolled coils from China and Japan, with some Chinese enterprises accepting price commitments [20][21]. - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 1.3427 million tons to 18.4611 million tons in the week ending February 26. The inventory of coils exceeded last year's peak. The market is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and short - term steel price rebounds are limited [23][24]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market was weakly stable. After the Spring Festival, coal supply increased as mines resumed production, but demand remained weak. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales net increased by 407,100 tons in the week ending February 19, down 49% from the previous week and 30% from the four - week average, and was at the lower end of the market forecast range [27]. - The US government's biofuel policy may benefit soybean crushing, but actual export data is disappointing. Domestically, the price of imported soybeans has risen, but soybean meal supply is sufficient. It is recommended to maintain the view of price volatility and pay attention to China's soybean procurement, customs policies, and reserve policies [29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil exported 1.3138 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of February, with a daily average export volume 44% higher than that in February last year. The sugar production estimate in India for this season was reduced by 1.65 million tons to 29.3 million tons [30][32]. - The reduction in Indian sugar production will support domestic prices, limit exports, and reduce the global sugar supply surplus. The Brazilian sugar production in the new season will have a greater impact on the international sugar market. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [33][34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From February 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.25% month - on - month [35]. - The oil market showed a differentiated trend. Soybean oil was affected by the US biofuel policy and trended strongly. The market is pessimistic about Malaysia's palm oil exports in February. It is expected that the palm oil price will continue to test the bottom, and attention should be paid to the final US biofuel policy in March [36][37]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of February 26, the average inventory of feed enterprises across the country was 31.29 days, a decrease of 0.96 days from the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 2.98%, and a year - on - year decline of 2.43% [38]. - The corn futures price was volatile. The slowdown in grain sales during the Spring Festival, low port inventory, and downstream replenishment demand support the price. However, the price increase may be limited by downstream acceptance and potential policy grain releases. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly upward, but the 05 contract may face a technical correction [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects to gradually reduce the proportion of外购仔猪 (purchased piglets) in 2026 and strive to reduce the full - cost of fattening pigs to about 12.6 yuan per kilogram. Wens Co., Ltd. plans to repurchase shares worth 800 million - 1.2 billion yuan [39][41]. - The current slaughter volume is low, and the supply pressure remains. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak. The near - month futures contracts face basis - repair pressure, while the far - month contracts may rebound after over - falling. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to go long on the far - month contracts after the negative factors are exhausted [41][42]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Finland launched the first commercial spodumene mine in Europe, with a lithium concentrate production capacity equivalent to about 15,000 tons of lithium hydroxide. Core Lithium reached a fixed - price agreement with Glencore to sell about 5,100 dry tons of spodumene concentrate [43][44]. - In the short - term, a bullish view on lithium carbonate is maintained, but the price may correct when supply increases in the medium - term [45]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 46.37 US dollars per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots in five places increased by 3,100 tons [46]. - The Shanghai lead futures were in a low - level volatile pattern. The lead market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is supported by the cost of recycled smelters. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider long positions in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of 29.64 US dollars per ton. As of February 26, the social inventory of zinc ingots in seven places increased by 10,200 tons [48][49]. - The zinc price was volatile. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased. The downstream start - up was slow. It is recommended to adopt a bullish approach and continue to hold call options, while being vigilant about tariff risks [49]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mexico's mining safety risk has increased significantly, and Japan's copper and copper alloy imports in January increased by 13.51% year - on - year. The core leadership of Congo (Kinshasa)'s state - owned mining company has been replaced [50][51][52]. - The copper price is affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and domestic policies. The domestic and overseas inventories are increasing, which restricts the price increase. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips [52][53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On February 25, the LME 0 - 3 tin was at a premium of 20 US dollars per ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 182 tons on February 26 [54]. - The supply of tin ore may gradually ease in the short - term but is expected to be restricted in the long - term. The price is expected to be in a strong and wide - range volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar and post - holiday consumption [54][55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - As of February 20, the US propane/propylene output was about 2,862 thousand barrels per day, the inventory was 725 million barrels, a decrease of 17 million barrels from the previous week, and the consumption decreased from 1,472 thousand barrels per day to 1,343 thousand barrels per day [56]. - The LPG price is expected to be strong. The domestic spot market is tepid, and the inventory is higher than last year, with a weaker destocking slope [56][57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - On February 26, the closing price of CEA in the national carbon emissions trading market was 81 yuan per ton, the same as the previous day. The trading volume of the listing agreement was 30,000 tons, and the trading volume of the bulk agreement was 400,000 tons [58]. - The carbon market is in a policy window period. The trading price fluctuates greatly, but the price center is stable. The trading activity has cooled down, and it is recommended that enterprises with demand consider buying on dips [58][59]. 3.2.15 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - An accident in the Port of Livorno, Italy, led to a 24 - hour port - wide strike, paralyzing container operations and causing a backlog of goods [60]. - The container freight rate is expected to decline in March. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to short the 04 contract on rallies [61][62].

Group 1 - In February, China's AI model call volume experienced explosive growth, surpassing the US for the first time, with 41.2 trillion tokens compared to the US's 29.4 trillion tokens during the week of February 9-15 [1] - The following week, China's model call volume further increased to 51.6 trillion tokens, marking a 127% increase over three weeks, while the US's call volume dropped to 27 trillion tokens [1] - Four out of the top five global models by call volume are from China, indicating a collective rise of Chinese AI manufacturers rather than reliance on a single blockbuster product [1] Group 2 - The European shipping index (EC) fell by 5.19%, with Maersk's new shipping rates to Rotterdam decreasing to $1,800, a drop of $100, marking the first decline after four weeks of stability [2][30] - The overall shipping volume is expected to remain low in March, traditionally a slow month post-Chinese New Year, leading to a likely downward trend in shipping rates [30] Group 3 - Precious metals continue to show strong performance driven by three main factors: changes in US tariff policies affecting dollar credit, ongoing tensions in Iran boosting gold's safe-haven demand, and inflation risks enhancing gold's anti-inflation properties [3][19] - The recent US Supreme Court ruling against large-scale tariff policies has raised concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policies, impacting dollar credibility [19] - Geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures are expected to support gold's upward trajectory in the medium to long term, while silver is anticipated to maintain a strong performance due to its industrial and financial attributes [19] Group 4 - The domestic market for methanol saw a slight decrease in operating rates, with the overall operating load at 78.24%, down 0.19 percentage points from the previous period, but up 5.13 percentage points year-on-year [14] - Coastal methanol inventories increased to 1.3987 million tons, reflecting a 0.77% rise from February 12, and a 35.14% increase year-on-year, indicating a stable supply situation despite rising imports [14] Group 5 - The copper market is experiencing a short-term adjustment phase, with prices down by 0.12% amid tight supply conditions and fluctuating demand from various sectors [20] - Zinc prices remained stable, with ongoing tightness in concentrate supply and increasing smelting output, while demand from construction and automotive sectors shows mixed signals [21] - Aluminum prices fell by 0.34%, influenced by macroeconomic factors and high inventory levels, with expectations of a gradual recovery in demand as production resumes [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall price of precious metals declined during the day, with silver's decline significantly greater than that of gold. The uncertainty of US tariff policies and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East continued to support precious metals, but the launch of the third round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations and the improvement of the US labor market led to a cautious market risk preference, causing precious metals to weaken during the session. In the short term, after the prices of gold and silver stabilize, they are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner, with slightly weakened short - term momentum and increased volatility. Key factors to watch include the results of the US - Iran Geneva nuclear negotiations, PPI data, next - week's non - farm payroll data, and Sino - US interactions [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. The uncertainty of US tariff policies, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and the US - Iran nuclear negotiations have increased market risk sensitivity. The improvement of the US labor market has suppressed the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The delay of Fed rate - cut expectations and the possibility of a US visit to China have put some pressure on the gold price. In the long - term, the supporting logic for gold's rise remains unchanged [2]. - After the price of silver stabilizes, it is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. The macro - driving factors of silver are consistent with those of gold. In addition to the factors mentioned above, attention should also be paid to the possible fermentation of the silver spot shortage in March. The silver inventory situation shows that there is still a risk of a silver spot shortage in March. In the long - term, the bullish support for silver prices remains strong [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Performance - During the day, the prices of precious metals declined overall, with silver's decline significantly greater than that of gold. The decline of silver at home and abroad exceeded 3%, and the decline of COMEX silver once exceeded 5%, hitting $86 per ounce. The decline of gold at home and abroad was less than 1% [1][2]. Influencing Factors - **Geopolitical and Policy Factors**: The uncertainty of US tariff policies and the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East continued to support precious metals. The launch of the third round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations increased market risk sensitivity [1][2]. - **Labor Market Factors**: The initial and continued jobless claims data showed that the US labor market had improved marginally, which put pressure on the expectation of Fed rate cuts [1][2]. Key Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21 was 212,000 (an increase of 4,000 from the previous value, lower than the expected 215,000). The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending February 14 was 1.833 million (lower than the expected and previous values) [2]. Market Outlook - **Gold**: In the short term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with slightly weakened short - term momentum. It needs more market certainty for guidance. In the long - term, the supporting logic for its rise remains unchanged [2]. - **Silver**: After the price stabilizes, it is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term, with increased short - term volatility risk. In the long - term, the bullish support remains strong [2]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: Not detailed in the given content. - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2434.44, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index was 2790.14, up 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2314.11, down 0.02% [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 26, 2026, the precious metals index was 4498.44, with a daily increase of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 4.70%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.73%, and a year - to - date increase of 17.63% [46].

Group 1: Stock Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down by 0.60 points, a decrease of 0.01%, at 4146.63 points on February 26 [5] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed up by 31.15 points, an increase of 0.22%, at 14507.01 points on February 26 [5] - The CSI 300 Index closed down by 9.01 points, a decrease of 0.19%, at 4726.87 points on February 26 [5] - The ChiNext Index closed down by 8.61 points, a decrease of 0.26%, at 3346.21 points on February 26 [5] - The STAR Market 50 Index closed up by 12.58 points, an increase of 0.85%, at 1485.86 points on February 26 [5][38] Group 2: Commodity Indices - The report includes various commodity indices such as lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, PTA, cotton, sugar, rubber, PVC, coking coal, palm oil, soda ash, live pigs, soybean meal, glass, and red dates, but specific data for these commodities is not provided in the excerpts [34][39][44][49][53][57][60][61][63][64][66]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of selecting a reliable futures trading institution, highlighting Dongwu Futures Co., Ltd. as a key player in the domestic futures industry, offering comprehensive services to facilitate investors' entry into the futures market [1][9]. Group 1: Service Offerings - Dongwu Futures provides a "one-stop" solution covering the entire futures trading chain, including account opening, trading, platform selection, and commission optimization [3]. - The company simplifies the account opening process to three steps, taking an average of only 15 minutes for personal and corporate investors [3]. - It offers low-commission futures trading by partnering with major exchanges, reducing trading costs to 70% of the industry average, allowing clients to save significantly on transaction fees [3][4]. - The firm supports multiple account management, enabling investors to operate both commodity and financial futures accounts simultaneously [3]. - Dongwu Futures has developed a comprehensive training program, serving over 100,000 investors, with 85% reporting improved trading skills within three months [3][4]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The company has provided account opening services to over 500,000 investors, with 60% being active trading clients and an 80% customer retention rate maintained for five consecutive years [4]. - Clients can save over 3,000 yuan annually on commission costs based on an average trading volume of 1,000 transactions [4]. - The trading system has achieved a stability rate of 99.99%, with over 350 days of fault-free operation, and can handle over 5 million orders per day [4]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Dongwu Futures has implemented an "intelligent pre-review" feature that reduces manual review time from 30 minutes to 5 minutes using OCR technology [6]. - The company has developed a "dynamic commission adjustment model" to optimize commission rates based on client trading frequency and position size [6]. - An in-house "smart routing system" minimizes order transmission steps, reducing slippage risk and enhancing trading efficiency [7]. Group 4: Customer Support and Security - The company has established a professional customer service team of over 200 members, providing 7×12 hour online support with an average response time of 30 seconds [6]. - Dongwu Futures adheres to strict regulatory requirements, implementing a three-tier security system that includes fund isolation, data encryption, and risk monitoring [8]. - In 2024, the company reported a 100% client fund safety rate, with no incidents of fund security breaches [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Dongwu Futures aims to continue enhancing technological investments and service innovations to provide a seamless trading experience for investors, focusing on cost-effectiveness and efficiency [9].

Core Viewpoint - The gold price is currently experiencing fluctuations around the $5200 per ounce mark, influenced by mixed market sentiments regarding interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The recent trading days have seen the London gold spot price oscillate near $5200 per ounce, with a peak of $5205.47 per ounce on February 26 [1]. - The market is divided, with expectations of a potential easing of interest rates from the Federal Reserve, while geopolitical tensions continue to support safe-haven demand for gold [1][2]. Short-term Analysis - Analysts suggest that gold prices are unlikely to break through current resistance levels until clearer signals regarding interest rate cuts emerge [3][4]. - The recent hawkish tone from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes indicates that inflation remains a concern, which may limit the need for further monetary easing [3]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, with supply-demand dynamics expected to remain tight [5]. - Global gold demand is projected to exceed 5000 tons for the first time in 2025, driven by strong investment demand and central bank purchases [5][6]. Institutional Perspectives - Major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, have raised their long-term gold price forecasts, predicting a price of $4500 per ounce, with a potential rise to $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [6][7]. - UBS Wealth Management anticipates that a weaker dollar and declining real interest rates will support gold prices, projecting two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year [7].