2026年开年以来，期货业监管高压态势丝毫不减。 多家期货公司被监管"点名"，处罚直指居间业务、内部控制、互联网营销等核心违规领域，既有警示函、监管谈话等柔性约束，更有暂停新开户等实质性 业务限制。 据不完全统计，2026年1月，多地证监局已对相关期货公司开出6张罚单，实施多起行政监管措施。金元期货、先锋期货、华金期货、恒泰期货、中辉期 货、国新国证期货等卷入其中。 金元期货被罚 1月30日，海南证监局网站公布有关金元期货及该公司相关人员的监管措施。海南证监局指出，经查，金元期货存在违规与第三方机构开展居间合作的情 形，反映出公司互联网营销业务合规管控缺失，内部控制存在缺陷。根据相关规定，金元期货被采取责令改正的行政监督管理措施。 除了公司被罚，金元期货首席风险官吴育娜，公司分管经纪业务的副总经理聂义锋，均被海南证监局采取出具警示函的行政监督管理措施。 分支机构成违规重灾区 从处罚对象看，分支机构成为违规"重灾区"。先锋期货广州分公司、中辉期货天津营业部、恒泰期货青岛营业部等多家分支机构均因多项违规被罚。处罚 力度的升级尤为明显，与以往不同，暂停期货经纪业务新开户与责令改正并行成为主流处罚方式。其中，恒泰期货 ...

报告日期：2026 年 2 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：贵金属遭受重挫 国家统计局、中国物流与采购联合会 31 日发布 2026 年 1 月份中国采购经理指 数。数据显示，1 月我国制造业市场需求有所收紧，但企业生产保持扩张态势， 产业结构继续优化；服务业运行态势相对稳定，企业预期持续向好。2026 年 1 月 份中国制造业采购经理指数为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点。1 月份装备制 造业采购经理指数为 50.1%，高技术制造业采购经理指数为 52%，装备制造业和 高技术制造业稳中向好发展，制造业产业结构持续优化。受获利回吐和短期期货 交易者多头平仓等因素影响，国际黄金和白银价格 1 月 30 日继续大幅下跌，均 创下数十年来最大单日跌幅。1 月 30 日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金 期货跌 8.35%报 4907.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 25.50%报 85.25 美元/盎 司。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铜 贵金属：周五国际市场贵金属价格暴跌，现货白银一度跌超 30%，现货黄金一度 跌超 10%。此次巨震主要受两方面因素影响：一是因为 1 月 30 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2026年2月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：Green Pool：预计26/27年度全球糖供应量过剩15.6万吨，低于25/26年度的274万吨。 2025年12月底，25/26年度本期制糖全国累计产糖470.18万吨；全国累计销糖157万吨；销糖率 33.39%。2025年12月中国进口食糖58万吨，同比增加19万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计6.97 万吨，同比减少12.08万吨。偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持仓空增，主力趋势不明朗，偏空。 6、预期：郑糖主力05上方60日均线压力较大，短期受压回落。周五夜盘外糖再度走低，进口糖低 价压制，国内白糖冲高动力不足。预计继续在5200上下震荡整理。 白糖： 2、基差：柳州现货5370，基差12 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 2 日 0 / 50 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 金银：沃什被提名为联储新主席 引发金银市场风险释放 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：巨幅回撤后多空争夺剧烈 高波动行情谨慎参与 18 | | 铜：沃什提名美联储主席，铜价快速回撤 19 | | 氧化铝：震荡为主 20 | | 电解铝：警惕资金离场风险 20 | | 铸造铝合金：市场流动性收紧 铝合金随板块回调 21 | | 锌：关注市场情绪变化 22 | | 股指期货：波动不改上行趋势 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：官方 PMI 不及预期 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应总体宽松 | 盘面仍有压力 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价大跌 | 预计国内价格偏弱 6 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽度震荡 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货回落，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力好转 | 现货整体上涨 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 ...

【新闻】 提名沃什，特朗普：他会是最伟大的美联储主席之一，无需白宫施压，沃什自会降息。（华尔街见闻） 特朗普钦点美联储新主席，几位落选热门候选人喊话：利率太高该降了。（华尔街见闻） 铅趋势强度：0 2026 年 02 月 02 日 铅：供需双弱，价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16865 | -1.86% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1995 | -0.77% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 122859 | 34910 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 10642 | -4770 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 56480 | -2608 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 171261 | 3394 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 50 | 5 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资和咖业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026年2月2日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | 4.66 | 92.60% | 77.50% | 上期间处差 | -25.47 | H期现价来 | 7.50 | -11.98 | 94.60% | 90.70% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | IC期现价差 | 90.10% | -8.12 | -7.88 | 71,60% | IM期现价差 | 5.74 | 18.79 | 90.00% | 91,20% | 次月-当月 | -8.40 | 92.6096 | 62.40% | 1.00 | | | 零月-当月 | -10.20 | -7.20 | ...

宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-02 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 弱势 | 弱势运行 | 地缘风险降温，原油弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：弱势 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：弱势运行 核心逻辑：近期美国总统特朗普频繁释放地缘风险信号，格陵兰岛、加拿大或成为美国下一个夺取 和打击的目标。由于美伊释放和谈信号，地缘风险降温，原油溢价回吐并拖累国内能化板块偏多氛 围减弱，上周五夜盘国内外原油期货价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run weakly in the short - term, with a short - term view of oscillation, a medium - term view of oscillation, and an intraday view of weakness [1][5] - Due to the cooling of geopolitical risks, the methanol futures are expected to maintain a weak pattern on Monday, but the recent overseas supply "hard contraction" has provided strong support for the methanol price [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Time - period and Viewpoint Definitions - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month, and intraday represents the current trading day [1] - For intraday views, a decline greater than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered slightly weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered slightly strong, and a rise greater than 1% is considered strong. Short - term and medium - term views do not make such distinctions [3][4] 3.2 Price - driving Logic of Methanol - The key factor supporting the recent upward movement of methanol prices is the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, a major import source, is experiencing serious supply disruptions [5] - The reduction of methanol inventory at domestic ports has led to the recovery of port spot prices and a stronger basis, which has boosted the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5] - Due to the cooling of geopolitical risks and a weaker oil price, the bullish sentiment in the domestic energy and chemical sector has diminished, causing the domestic methanol futures to trade weakly and close slightly lower on the night session of last Friday. It is expected to maintain a weak pattern on Monday [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [3] - In the medium to long term, with the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On January 30th, the four major A - share stock indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% to close at 4117.95 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66% to close at 14205.89 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.27% to close at 3346.36 points; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.12% to close at 1509.4 points. The market turnover was 28,624 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,970 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+3.44%), electronics (+0.68%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.65%) led the gains; non - ferrous metals (-7.8%), steel (-2.83%), and food and beverage (-2.78%) led the losses [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IF>IH>IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2,449/128/2,894 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale and retail investors had net inflows of - 303, - 293, 18, and 578 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 7, +13, - 50, and +44 billion yuan respectively [2] - On January 30th, the Treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0%, TF rose 0.01%, T rose 0.06%, and TL fell 0.23% [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was - 5.74, 8.12, - 4.66, and - 7.5 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were 0.58%, - 0.81%, 0.83%, and 2.04% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 96%, 84%, 70%, and 73% respectively [3] - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various stock index futures contracts such as IC, IF, IH, and IM, including price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250017.IB, with a yield change of - 1bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.05, and an IRR of 1.2%; for the 5 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 2500801.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.018, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the 10 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250018.IB, with a yield change of - 0.65bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.018, and an IRR of 1.45%; for the 30 - year Treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210005.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.053, and an IRR of 1.27% [3] - The report provides detailed data on the performance of various Treasury bond futures contracts such as TS, TF, T, and TL, including price, trading volume, open interest, etc. [8] 3.4 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the import and export sentiment exceeded expectations, the real estate and social activity sentiment was lower than in previous periods, and the manufacturing and infrastructure sentiment was similar to previous periods [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. The fundamentals suggest that the market is currently focused on the expectation of supply improvement, and the influence of macro factors on commodities has increased. The rebound in international crude oil prices also provides cost - side support for chemical products. Overall, the current spot drivers for polyolefins are relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors [2]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Data Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7095, 7014, and 7069 respectively, with price drops of 21, 35, and 35, and declines of - 0.30%, - 0.50%, and - 0.49% respectively. Trading volumes were 133, 784328, and 53479, and open interest was 332, 503743, and 72509, with changes of 31, - 9081, and - 1224 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 81, - 55, and - 26 respectively [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6801, 6824, and 6857 respectively, with price drops of 39, 46, and 45, and declines of - 0.57%, - 0.67%, and - 0.65% respectively. Trading volumes were 1086, 704541, and 73813, and open interest was 2701, 529952, and 111350, with changes of 137, - 26732, and - 4066 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 23, - 33, and 56 respectively [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2321 yuan/ton, 6400 yuan/ton, 627 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6600 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices remaining unchanged from the previous values [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6900 - 7250, 6800 - 7100, and 7050 - 7300 respectively, and for PP were 6650 - 6750, 6600 - 6700, and 6650 - 6850 respectively, with some prices remaining unchanged from the previous values [2]. Market News - On Friday (January 30), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.21 per barrel, down $0.21 or 0.32% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.64 - $66.11. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for March 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.69 per barrel, down $0.02 or 0.03% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.15 - $70.92 [2].