Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated July 3, 2025, covering gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, nickel, and stainless steel [1][2] 1. Investment Ratings - No overall industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold: With rising expectations of interest rate cuts [2] - Silver: Continuing to surge [2] - Copper: The price remains firm as the US dollar is under pressure [2] - Zinc: Trading within a range [2] - Lead: Bullish in the medium term [2] - Tin: Driven upward by the macro - environment [2] - Nickel: Support from the ore end is weakening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing, and the steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity [2] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamentals** - Gold: The closing prices of Comex gold 2508 and London gold spot increased by 0.56% and 0.79% respectively; the trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish view [5][8] - Silver: The closing prices of Comex silver 2508 increased by 1.50%; the trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish view [5][8] - **Macro and Industry News** - Trump's "Great Beauty" bill is blocked in the House of Representatives, and the infighting within the Republican Party intensifies - The "small non - farm" data is disappointing: the US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000 [5][9] 3.2 Copper - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.67%, and the inventory decreased by 625 tons; the trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish view [10][12] - **Macro and Industry News** - The "small non - farm" data is disappointing, and employment market cooling may accelerate interest rate cuts - Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project is approved, and the production scale will increase to 30 million tons per year [10][12] 3.3 Zinc - **Fundamentals** - The closing prices of the Shanghai zinc main contract and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.11% and 1.00% respectively; the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][14] - **Macro and Industry News** - The "small non - farm" data is disappointing, and the June non - farm report may also be weak [14] 3.4 Lead - **Fundamentals** - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.44%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.12%; the trend strength is 1, indicating a bullish view [16][17] - **Macro and Industry News** - The "small non - farm" data is disappointing, and the June non - farm report may be weak [17] 3.5 Tin - **Fundamentals** - The closing prices of the Shanghai tin main contract and the LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.49% and 0.12% respectively; the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [20][22] - **Macro and Industry News** - Trump's "Great Beauty" bill is blocked, and the "small non - farm" data is disappointing, among other events [20][21] 3.6 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,220, and the trend strength is 0; for stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract is 12,670, and the trend strength is 0 [23][28] - **Macro and Industry News** - Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US - Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron project enters the trial production stage [23][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Continuing to surge [2]. - Copper: Strong spot prices support the price [2]. - Zinc: The fundamentals are under pressure [2]. - Lead: Seasonal peak expectations support the price [2]. - Tin: The macro - environment drives the price up [2]. - Nickel: The support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upside potential [2]. - Stainless steel: Inventory has slightly decreased marginally, and the steel price has recovered but with limited elasticity [2]. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 773.90 with a daily increase of 1.10%, and the night - session closing price was 776.10 with a night - session increase of 1.47%. Comex Gold 2508 closed at 3315.00 with a 0.88% increase. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - **ETF and Inventory**: SPDR Gold ETF's holdings decreased by 2 to 952.53. Shanghai Gold's inventory increased by 216 to 18,453 kg, while Comex Gold's inventory (in ounces) decreased by 135 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak bearish trend [8]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8810 with a 0.55% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8810.00 with a 1.11% increase. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - **ETF and Inventory**: SLV Silver ETF's holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 42 to 14,869.01. Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 39088 to 1,338,844 kg, and Comex Silver's inventory (in ounces) increased by 604,393 [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a weak bullish trend [8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 80,640 with a 0.96% increase, and the night - session closing price was 80390 with a - 0.31% change. Trading volumes of some contracts increased compared to the previous day [10]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai Copper's inventory decreased by 1,078 to 24,773 tons, and LME Copper's inventory increased by 625 to 91,250 tons. Some spreads changed compared to the previous day [10]. - **News**: The US 6 - month ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract. China's May copper ore imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. Some mining and smelting projects have new developments [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a weak bullish trend [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22255 with a - 1.07% change. Trading volumes of some contracts changed compared to the previous day [13]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai Zinc's inventory decreased by 253 to 6824 tons, and LME Zinc's inventory decreased by 2575 to 114900 tons. Some spreads and premiums changed [13]. - **News**: The 6000t/d lead - zinc mine expansion project in Guangxi started [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a weak bearish trend [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 17100 with a - 0.58% change. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [16]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai Lead's inventory increased by 101 to 46389 tons, and LME Lead's inventory decreased by 1850 to 270075 tons. Some spreads and import profits changed [16]. - **News**: The 6000t/d lead - zinc mine expansion project in Guangxi started [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1, indicating a weak bullish trend [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 269,840 with a 0.65% increase, and the night - session closing price was 269840 with a 0.63% increase. Trading volumes of some contracts decreased compared to the previous day [20]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai Tin's inventory increased by 16 to 6,766 tons, and LME Tin's inventory increased by 45 to 2,220 tons. Some spot prices and spreads changed [20]. - **News**: Multiple macro - level news events, such as EU - US tariff negotiations and China's PMI data [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,720, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 12,560. Trading volumes of both decreased compared to the previous day [23]. - **Industry Chain Data**: Various prices in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chain, such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate, and stainless - steel products, changed compared to different time points [23]. - **News**: There were developments in nickel - related projects in Canada, Indonesia, including production start - ups, resumptions, and potential export restrictions [23][24][25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire; trend strength is - 1 [2][8] - Silver: Continuing to surge; trend strength is 1 [2][8] - Copper: Favorable sentiment, firm price; trend strength is 0 [2][12] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations; trend strength is 0 [13][15] - Nickel: Support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity; trend strength is 0 [17][20] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity; trend strength is 0 [17][20] 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 765.46 with a daily decline of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 768.98 with a night - session increase of 0.54%. The closing price of Comex Gold 2508 was 3315.00 with a daily increase of 0.88% [5] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 147,042, a decrease of 22,175 from the previous day, and the position was 119,087, a decrease of 10,735 [5] - **ETF and inventory**: The position of SPDR Gold ETF was 952.53, a decrease of 2 from the previous day. The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 18,237 kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Silver - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8762 with a daily decline of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 8722.00 with a night - session increase of 0.10%. The closing price of Comex Silver 2508 was 36.330 with a daily increase of 0.46% [5] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 504,424, an increase of 34,875 from the previous day, and the position was 277,702, a decrease of 37,746 [5] - **ETF and inventory**: The position of SLV Silver ETF (the day before yesterday) was 14,826.61, a decrease of 40. The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 1,299,756 kg, an increase of 4093 from the previous day [5] Copper - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,870 with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 79780 with a night - session decline of 0.11%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,878 with a daily decline of 0.01% [10] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,945, a decrease of 30,811 from the previous day, and the position was 212,911, a decrease of 2,794 [10] - **Inventory and spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 25,851, an increase of 505 from the previous day. The LME Copper cash premium was 181.69, a decrease of 58.98 from the previous day [10] - **Macro and industry news**: China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, and the new order index returned to the expansion range. Chile's Antofagast hopes to extend the mining of Los Pelambres mine through expansion and upgrading [10][12] Tin - **Price data**: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,110 with a daily decline of 0.28%, and the night - session closing price was 267,010 with a night - session decline of 0.42%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750 with a daily increase of 0.55% [14] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 85,038, a decrease of 23,766 from the previous day, and the position was 31,484, a decrease of 1,518 [14] - **Inventory and spread**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,750, an increase of 199 from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 263,300, a decrease of 1,100 from the previous day [14] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,610 [17] - **Trading volume and position**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 86,158, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 146,051 [17] - **Industry news**: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF phase - I project entered the trial - production stage [17][18]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the basic metals industry, particularly copper and aluminum, influenced by macroeconomic factors in the U.S. and liquidity expectations for the second half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S. Economic Events**: July 2025 is critical with key events such as the vote on the "Great America Act" on July 4, the expiration of EU tariff exemptions on July 9, and a potential Fed interest rate cut decision around July 30. These events will significantly impact commodity markets and liquidity expectations for the latter half of the year [2][4]. - **Fed's Rate Cut Signals**: Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, have indicated that positive changes in tariffs could trigger conditions for a rate cut, which is expected to support demand for basic metals and enhance anti-inflation capabilities [1][4]. - **Copper Market Dynamics**: The price difference between COMEX and LME copper has widened to $1,400/ton with a premium rate of 14.2%. This is driven by expectations of a potential copper tariff investigation and LME's restrictions on long positions, leading to a more optimistic COMEX market [5][6]. - **Domestic Copper Market**: The domestic copper market is experiencing weak forward prices, shifting from a Contango to a Backwardation structure, which may lead to cautious investor sentiment towards equity investments [6]. - **Aluminum Market Conditions**: The aluminum market is characterized by low inventory levels across social, exchange, and bonded zone stocks. Despite a slight accumulation during the off-season, demand remains strong, supporting stable aluminum prices [3][8]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Suggested investments include companies with relatively cheap valuations and good mid-term growth potential, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Jincheng Mining, as well as Chinese non-ferrous mining companies listed in Hong Kong [3][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Support for Metal Prices**: An increase in macroeconomic expectations, low spot inventories, and the upcoming earnings season are expected to support rising prices for basic metals [7]. - **Aluminum Industry Performance**: The aluminum sector in both Hong Kong and A-share markets has shown strong performance, with expectations for annual earnings to exceed 20 billion, driven by a combination of beta, alpha, and dividend investment trends [10]. - **Valuation of Aluminum Companies**: Current valuations for aluminum companies are around 7 times earnings, indicating reasonable valuation levels with high safety margins. Companies like Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Zhongfu International are highlighted as having positive allocation value [11]. - **Trading Strategies for Basic Metals**: Short-term trading may focus on liquidity easing expectations, while fundamental trading should consider early positioning before the peak season to validate liquidity expectations and assess demand performance post-peak [12].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Non-Ferrous Metals Core Insights and Arguments - **Copper Price Expectations**: The anticipated copper price for 2025 is around $10,000 per ton, aligning with current fundamentals. The decline in the spot-futures price spread indicates a rationalization of speculative sentiment, with large enterprises slowing down purchases [1][4]. - **Weakening Fundamentals**: The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a marginal weakening over the past three to four weeks, with inventory levels for copper and aluminum halting their decline and slightly increasing. Downstream operating rates, processing fees, and profitability for copper and aluminum are all on a downward trend [1][6]. - **Seasonal Weakness**: The non-ferrous metals market is expected to enter a traditional off-season from July to early August 2025, with high temperatures and holidays negatively impacting consumption. Previous tariff policies have preemptively exhausted some demand, posing short-term risks of returning to fundamental market conditions [1][7]. - **Valuation and Price Caution**: The current valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector is neutral, with commodity prices and sector valuations reflecting caution [1][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Aluminum Industry Conditions**: The aluminum sector is experiencing weak conditions, with aluminum rod margins at their lowest in nearly a year. While aluminum rod factory inventories have decreased by approximately 16,000 to 17,000 tons, social inventories have increased by over 10,000 tons, indicating weak demand [1][9]. - **Copper Demand and Inventory**: Copper demand is relatively weak, with electrolytic copper production declining for four consecutive weeks while factory inventories are rising, indicating insufficient demand. Downstream copper rod production has also decreased for three weeks, further confirming the downward trend in demand [1][10]. - **Future Price Adjustments**: It is expected that commodity prices may undergo two adjustments in the coming year, influenced by short-term factors such as tariff-related behaviors and seasonal effects, as well as the long-term negative impacts of U.S. tariff policies [1][11]. Industry Overview: Gold Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Stability**: Short-term inflation expectations support gold prices, with significant adjustments unlikely. Long-term support for gold prices is provided by central bank purchases in emerging markets, with expectations for gold prices to fluctuate between $3,100 and $3,400 [2][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: The current investment climate suggests that as other sectors present more opportunities, the opportunity cost of holding gold is high. However, as gold prices adjust to reasonable levels, capital may flow back into gold [2][13]. Industry Overview: Steel Core Insights and Arguments - **Steel Industry Performance**: The steel industry performed well in Q1, with Q2 profitability levels expected to remain similar. Investment opportunities may arise if "anti-involution" policies are extended to the steel sector, potentially improving profit margins [14]. Industry Overview: Minor Metals Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities in Tungsten and Cobalt**: There are notable investment opportunities in tungsten and cobalt, with tungsten prices currently stabilizing at high levels. The demand for tungsten is supported by growth in electronics and new energy vehicles, while cobalt may see significant changes in July and August due to inventory dynamics [15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The macroeconomic sentiment and supply shortages have driven copper prices to their highest levels since March [6][17] - Precious metals have seen fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions easing and the signing of agreements between China and the US, leading to a correction in gold prices [1][40] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals sector is positive, with prices generally increasing across various metals [6][11] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices decreased by 2.90% to $3,286.10 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 0.60% to $36.17 per ounce [1][25] - The gold-silver ratio fell by 3.48% to 90.86, indicating a shift in market dynamics [26] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 147,420.08 troy ounces, while SLV Silver ETF holdings rose by 3,726,451.20 ounces [26] Basic Metals - Copper prices rose by 2.26% to $9,879.00 per ton on the LME and by 2.47% to ¥79,920.00 per ton on the SHFE [6][48] - Aluminum prices increased by 1.31% to $2,595.00 per ton on the LME and by 0.56% to ¥20,580.00 per ton on the SHFE [6][48] - Zinc prices saw a significant rise of 4.89% to $2,778.50 per ton on the LME [6] - The overall sentiment in the basic metals market is buoyed by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [6][11] Copper - The market is currently focused on copper inventory shortages, with LME copper stocks decreasing and COMEX stocks reaching historical highs [7][72] - Supply-side challenges include high costs and shortages of copper concentrate, with potential production disruptions from mining operations [7][72] - Demand expectations are improving, although domestic copper rod production rates have slightly declined [7][72] Aluminum - The aluminum industry is experiencing supply-demand imbalances, with production capacity remaining stable despite some regional maintenance [10][75] - Demand from downstream sectors is weakening, particularly in traditional off-peak seasons, affecting purchasing behavior [10][75] - Future aluminum prices are expected to be supported by ongoing demand in sectors like new energy and power [10][75] Zinc - Zinc prices are being supported by expectations of supply disruptions due to labor strikes at key production facilities [11] - The overall demand for zinc is facing pressure from declining activity in downstream sectors [11] Lead - Lead prices are experiencing upward pressure due to tightening supply from primary smelters and recovering production from recycled lead facilities [12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices have increased due to low inventory levels, while demand remains cautious [13][14] - Molybdenum and vanadium prices are under pressure from downstream demand weakness, leading to price declines [15]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the simultaneous decline of gold and the US dollar due to a decrease in safe-haven demand, influenced by geopolitical events and market reactions to statements from President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell [1][5][12] - On Tuesday, the international spot gold price opened at $3368.34, reaching a high of $3370.56 and a low of $3295.29, closing at $3323.74, down $44.45 or 1.32% [1] - The US dollar index opened at 98.38 points, with a high of 98.40 and a low of 97.69, closing at 97.96, down 420 points or 0.43% [3] Group 2 - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6747.72 points, with a high of 6776.92 and a low of 6604.47, closing at 6703.65, down 46.85 points or 0.69% [4] - The article notes that the market's reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict and subsequent ceasefire has led to a significant drop in gold prices, suggesting an overreaction in market sentiment [5][12] - Trump's comments on oil prices and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy have had a notable impact on market dynamics, with Powell's statements influencing expectations around interest rate changes [12][19] Group 3 - The article discusses the unusual market behavior where both the dollar and commodity prices, including oil, are declining simultaneously, which is typically rare and indicates a potential economic downturn [5][17] - The relationship between the dollar and commodity markets is analyzed, suggesting that if the dollar enters a macro depreciation trend, commodity prices may not follow the same downward trajectory [16][19] - The article concludes that the current economic environment does not show clear signs of a financial crisis, and the macro bullish structure of commodity markets remains intact despite recent fluctuations [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced [2]. - Silver: Prices have fallen from high levels [2]. - Copper: Lacks a clear driving force, with prices oscillating [2]. - Aluminum: The current situation remains strong [2]. - Alumina: The price center has slightly shifted downwards [2]. - Zinc: Under pressure [2]. - Lead: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but it can be bullish in the medium term [2]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak future expectations [2]. - Nickel: Concerns at the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply has full elasticity [2]. - Stainless steel: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, with weak supply and demand and low - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of various gold and silver contracts showed different changes, with daily increases in gold prices and a decline in the price of Shanghai silver 2508. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, ETF holdings, and inventories [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel intensified [5][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both gold and silver have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [8]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.76%, and the London copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.44%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and there were geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel. China's May copper ore imports increased year - on - year, while un - wrought copper and copper product imports decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [12]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai aluminum main contract and the Shanghai alumina main contract showed different trends. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads in the aluminum and alumina markets [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both aluminum and alumina have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [15]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 1.22%, and the London zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.66%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early June 2025, compared with late May, 11 types of products' prices rose, 35 declined, and 4 remained flat [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish stance [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 0.33%, and the London lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In early June 2025, compared with late May, 11 types of products' prices rose, 35 declined, and 4 remained flat [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [19]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 0.55%, and the London tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.24%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and various price spreads [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's May social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, and there were geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless - steel main contract decreased. There were changes in trading volume, positions, and various price spreads in the nickel and stainless - steel industries [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were issues such as potential nickel export restrictions from Canada and production resumptions and suspensions in the Indonesian nickel industry [25][26][27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral stance [28].

2025年06月16日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：上周五贵金属市场因伊以冲突再次冲高；基本面：美国宣布 23 日起对钢制家电加征关税，洗衣机 冰箱在列；美国 5 月 PPI 同比 2.6%，预期 2.6%，前值 2.4%，5 月份美国 PPI 整体涨幅依然温和，核心 PPI 创下 2024 年 8 月以来的最低水平；美国 6 月 7 日当周首次申请失业救济人数 24.8 万人，高于预期的 24.2 万 人，也高于前值 24.7 万人，为 2024 年 10 月以来的最高水平。国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日重新流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1175 吨，减少 4 吨；上期所黄金库存 18 吨，继续微增，伦敦 5 月黄金库存 8598 吨；上期所白银 库存 1210 吨，比前一交易日减少 16 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存减少 28 吨至 1319 吨，COMEX 白银库存 15495 吨，比前一交易日增加 8 吨；伦敦 5 月库存增加 500 多吨至 23367 吨；印度 3 月白银进口减至 120 吨左右。全球最大白银 etf--iShares 持有量为 14729 ...

2025年06月13日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元回落，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 6 | | 锌：短期回落 | 8 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 9 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 10 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 12 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 13 日 黄金：非农小幅超预期 白银：高位回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | ...