Supply Situation - PVC production companies are currently operating at a high capacity despite being in a loss-making state, with an operating load of 77.61% as of August 22, which is an increase of 0.84 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The average loss for domestic calcium carbide method PVC is 220 yuan/ton, compared to a profit of 200 yuan/ton in the same period last year, while the ethylene method PVC has an average loss of 580 yuan/ton, up from a loss of 190 yuan/ton year-on-year [2] - The domestic PVC weekly production is around 465,000 tons, with a demand of approximately 453,000 tons, resulting in a surplus of about 12,000 tons [2] Inventory Levels - Although PVC inventory is lower than the same period last year, there has been a significant increase in social inventory since July, with a sample data of 852,700 tons, up 5.09% week-on-week and down 6.50% year-on-year [3] - The East China region has a social inventory of 784,100 tons, up 5.33% week-on-week and down 9.91% year-on-year, while South China has 68,700 tons, up 2.46% week-on-week and up 64.69% year-on-year [3] Demand Dynamics - The real estate sector, a major downstream market for PVC, is experiencing a downturn, with a 12% year-on-year decrease in cumulative real estate development investment from January to July, and a 19.4% decline in newly started construction area [4] - The operating load for PVC pipe enterprises is at 33.61% and for profile enterprises at 37.65%, indicating a lack of significant change in downstream enterprise operations [4] Export Trends - From January to July, domestic PVC exports reached 2.6595 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 53.06% [5] - India, a key export destination, has imposed anti-dumping duties on PVC imports from China, which could diminish China's price advantage and affect future export volumes [6] - The anti-dumping tax is expected to be implemented in September, leading to a potential surge in exports in August as companies rush to fulfill orders [6] Market Outlook - The overall PVC market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with the supply side remaining robust despite poor operating conditions for producers [7] - The demand from the real estate market is unlikely to show significant improvement, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties by India may further impact export dynamics [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - V2601 oscillated with a bullish bias, closing at 5047 yuan/ton. This week, the restart of overhauled devices and the annual inspection of a 400,000 - ton device at Formosa Plastics Ningbo are expected to increase production and capacity utilization. There are many PVC production plans in August, increasing medium - to - long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping investigation in India increases export difficulties, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction and putting pressure on prices. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4900 and the pressure around 5100 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5047 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the trading volume was 1,088,126 lots, up 395,393 lots; the open interest was 1,008,160 lots, up 26,929 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 853,070 lots, up 1,523 lots; the short position was 934,697 lots, up 19,110 lots; the net long position was - 81,627 lots, down 17,587 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4762.31 yuan/ton, down 10.77 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4985 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4857.5 yuan/ton, down 5.62 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 725 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 279 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2565 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan; in the Northwest, it was 2337 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.61%, down 2.72 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 76.81%, down 3.15 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.59%, down 1.67 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 508,000 tons, up 15,200 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 450,200 tons, up 15,000 tons; in the South China region, it was 57,800 tons, up 200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 281.0593 billion yuan, up 36.3043 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.7%, down 2.69 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 21.81%, down 0.22 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.22%, up 0.01 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.22%, unchanged [3] Industry News - On August 25, the market price of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou increased by 0 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, ranging from 4750 to 4830 yuan/ton. From August 16 to August 22, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.72%. As of August 21, the social inventory of PVC increased by 5.09% month - on - month to 852,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.50% [3]

Group 1 - The overall PVC market is experiencing a downward trend due to rapid upstream capacity growth and weak downstream demand, with approximately 50% of demand affected by the real estate sector, leading to an overall supply surplus [1][2] - Recent significant price declines in the PVC market are driven by two main factors: the commissioning of new production facilities increasing supply and the final ruling of anti-dumping duties on PVC from India, which negatively impacts China's PVC export demand [1][4] - The PVC market is expected to continue fluctuating downwards unless macroeconomic factors change, with potential strategies for achieving balance including reducing upstream production through price cuts or increasing exports [1][3] Group 2 - Three new PVC production facilities have been commissioned, adding a total of 1.1 million tons per year to the market, exacerbating the supply surplus [3] - From January to July, PVC exports from China increased significantly, totaling 2.29 million tons, a 57% year-on-year increase, which had previously alleviated domestic supply pressures [4] - The increase in anti-dumping duties imposed by India on Chinese PVC will significantly reduce the price competitiveness of Chinese exports to India, further contributing to the ongoing supply surplus [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the import and export volumes of polyolefins in China continued to increase. The fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, with high upstream supply, rising inventories, and significant inventory pressure. Although the commissioning of some planned production capacity was postponed, the long - term pressure of new capacity was large. The cost support was weak, and the downstream demand was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with a narrow recovery in terminal operation rates [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 167元/吨（-80），LL华东基差为 - 47元/吨（-40），PP华东基差为 - 76元/吨（-60） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）；PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利润为178.2元/吨（+6.6） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - The report does not provide detailed analysis and data for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为 - 545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.1%（+0.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report indicates that the inventories in the upstream and mid - stream sectors of polyolefins have been rising continuously, with significant inventory pressure, but no specific inventory data is provided [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The polyolefin market has weak support due to slow demand follow - up. Macro factors offer no positive boost, causing the polyolefin futures to decline slightly. Supply pressure persists as previously shut - down plants restart. Although the postponed commissioning of the 90 - million - ton/year PP plant at Daxie Petrochemical eases short - term supply pressure, long - term new capacity pressure is significant. Cost support is weak as international oil prices are weak and propane prices are stable. The demand side is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, with slow improvement in terminal operations, providing limited market support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton (- 27), and the PP main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton (- 32). LL North China spot was 7220 yuan/ton (- 30), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+ 0), and PP East China spot was 7000 yuan/ton (+ 0). LL North China basis was - 87 yuan/ton (- 3), LL East China basis was - 7 yuan/ton (+ 27), and PP East China basis was - 16 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.2% (+ 0.1%), and PP operating rate was 77.9% (+ 0.6%). PE oil - based production profit was 396.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 143.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), and PDH - based PP production profit was 171.6 yuan/ton (- 18.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 111.4 yuan/ton (+ 3.6), PP import profit was - 497.8 yuan/ton (- 36.4), and PP export profit was 34.6 US dollars/ton (+ 4.5) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.8% (+ 0.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.1% (- 0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.4% (+ 0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.1% (+ 0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data in the given text, but it is mentioned that upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising and inventory pressure is high [2]

Core Points - The fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on plastic pollution (INC-5.2) failed to reach a consensus on a legally binding international treaty after 10 days of negotiations, leading to an early adjournment on August 15 [1][2] - Significant divisions among UN member states were evident, with industry associations like the World Plastics Council (WPC) and Plastics Europe urging continued efforts towards a final agreement [1][2] - UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen highlighted the need for more time to achieve a comprehensive consensus on key issues such as plastic production, product management, funding mechanisms, and voting procedures [1] - The INC chair expressed that the lack of agreement should not be discouraging but rather a motivation to reaffirm commitments and unify visions for future negotiations [1][2] Industry Reactions - The WPC called for "pragmatic collaboration" to facilitate the treaty, expressing regret over the failure to reach an agreement but remaining optimistic about a future accord [2] - WPC emphasized the importance of recognizing the different challenges and perspectives faced by various countries and regions, urging negotiators to focus on waste management capabilities and circular models [2] - The European Plastics Association expressed disappointment over the lack of agreement but appreciated the political will to continue negotiations and build a global consensus [3] - The association supports the inclusion of mechanisms for promoting sustainable production and consumption, effective waste management, and a just transition to a circular economy in the final agreement [3] China's Involvement - China actively participated in discussions on all key issues, proposing bridging solutions and receiving positive evaluations from various parties [3] - China shared its experiences in reducing plastic usage at the source, waste collection and disposal, and cleaning up plastic waste in water bodies, emphasizing the urgent and complex nature of plastic pollution as a global environmental challenge [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese PVC industry is at a critical juncture of "breaking through and upgrading," where futures tools have transformed from mere risk management instruments to foundational infrastructure for enhancing industrial competitiveness, providing new pathways for PVC companies to tackle trade barriers and solidify global advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The future export competitiveness of the Chinese PVC industry will shift from a reliance on low costs to a dual advantage of "low costs + empowerment from futures tools" [1]. - The role of PVC futures and derivative tools has evolved significantly, now supporting long-term competitiveness rather than just hedging price fluctuations [1][2]. - The integration of "coal-electricity-calcium carbide" in China's PVC production provides a cost advantage of 500-800 RMB/ton compared to global ethylene processes, with futures tools adding a layer of certainty to this advantage [1][2]. Group 2: New Trading Models - Innovative models such as basis trading, spot-futures combinations, and rights-inclusive trading are reconstructing the pricing logic in PVC trade [1][2]. - Basis trading allows international clients to choose pricing timing, mitigating price volatility risks, while rights-inclusive trading offers price protection, enhancing cooperation stability [2]. - The transition signifies that PVC companies are evolving from mere product exporters to comprehensive service providers that include risk management solutions, moving from "opportunistic exports" to "strategic market cultivation" [2]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term challenges like export pressures, high domestic inventory, and insufficient demand, industry insiders remain optimistic about the long-term competitiveness of the PVC sector, with the futures market being a crucial support for this confidence [2]. - The manufacturing system's cost advantages, combined with the risk management capabilities provided by futures tools, remain core competitive strengths for Chinese companies [2]. - Companies are encouraged to transform current cyclical pains into upgrading momentum by accelerating product upgrades and diversifying global market layouts while effectively utilizing futures derivatives for risk management [2].

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have declined, with mainstream market prices dropping by 10-40 yuan/ton. The futures market has also seen a downward trend, leading to a slight strengthening of the basis as traders adjust their prices accordingly [1] - Downstream purchasing activity has shown a slight improvement, with localized enhancements in spot transactions. Current prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4770-4880 yuan/ton, South China at 4820-4890 yuan/ton, Hebei at 4650-4780 yuan/ton, and Shandong at 4750-4830 yuan/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 78.84%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points compared to the previous week. The calcium carbide method's operating load rate is 79.21%, up by 1.38 percentage points, while the ethylene method's load rate is 77.92%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points [2] - As of August 14, the inventory of PVC production enterprises has decreased, with the number of days of inventory available for production at 5.4 days, down by 3.57% from the previous period. This reduction is attributed to sustained high pre-sale orders being shipped [2] PVC Market Outlook - The supply side is facing pressure from new capacity being released, with domestic trade remaining weak and spot transactions showing a lack of strength. Inventory pressure is expected to continue to rise, with no significant improvement in demand anticipated [3] - New capacities are expected to be released in August from companies such as Wanhua in Fujian and Tianjin Bohua, with Gansu Yaowang planning to start production in August and Qingdao Bay planning to start in September. This influx of new capacity adds further pressure to the PVC supply side [3] - Downstream production enterprises are operating at low rates, and purchasing enthusiasm remains weak, indicating that the industry is still in a seasonal downturn. Overall, the supply-demand pressure remains significant, suggesting a bearish outlook [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current PVC market is characterized by strong supply, weak demand, and high valuations, resulting in poor fundamentals. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, following the fluctuations of the black market sentiment. In the medium term, if there is no policy for phasing out old production facilities, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry may face pressure to reduce valuations to clear excess capacity. The situation depends on whether exports can exceed expectations to reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide was reported at 2,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide was reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi was 620 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has recovered, while the profit from ethylene - based production has slightly declined, and currently, the valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.3%, a 0.9% increase from the previous week. Among them, the utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production was 80%, a 1.3% increase, and that of ethylene - based production was 81.3%, a 0.2% decrease. The supply load increased slightly last week, mainly due to the increased production of Zhongtai Fukang and Fujian Wanhua. It is expected to decline next week. In August, the maintenance volume decreased, and new facilities are gradually releasing production, increasing supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the weak export pressure in the third quarter, with expectations of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries remained stable last week. The pipe load was 33%, a 0.9% increase; the film load was 72.9%, a 4% decrease; the profile load was 36.9%, unchanged. The overall downstream load was 42.8%, a 0.1% decrease. The overall downstream operating rate remained stable week - on - week but was still weak year - on - year. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 79.1 tons, a decrease of 4.1 tons from the previous week [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 32.7 tons, a decrease of 1 ton; the social inventory was 81.2 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons; the overall inventory was 113.8 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons; the number of warehouse receipts increased. Currently, it has entered the inventory accumulation cycle, with upstream inventory gradually shifting to the mid - stream. In the context of strong supply and weak demand, inventory accumulation will continue if there is no better - than - expected performance in exports [11]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a high level this year, with significant valuation pressure. There is less maintenance, and production is at a historical high. In the short term, multiple facilities are being put into operation. On the downstream side, the domestic operating rate is at a five - year low. In terms of exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended, and there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The cost of calcium carbide has declined, while caustic soda has rebounded, further weakening the overall valuation support. In the medium term, it is continuously suppressed by the significant increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real estate demand, deteriorating the industry pattern. It depends on export growth or the implementation of policies to phase out old facilities to consume the domestic excess capacity [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific text content for analysis, only some charts about PVC term structure, spot price, basis, spreads, trading volume, and open interest are provided [19][24][26]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: The overall inventory is in an accumulation cycle. Last week, the in - factory inventory decreased by 1 ton to 32.7 tons, while the social inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 81.2 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 2.5 tons to 113.8 tons. The number of warehouse receipts also increased [11]. 3.4 Cost Side The cost side shows that calcium carbide prices have declined, and inventory has significantly accumulated. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide decreased by 65 yuan/ton week - on - week, while the price of Shandong calcium carbide remained unchanged, and the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi also remained stable [11][43]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Capacity Expansion**: In 2025, there is a large - scale capacity expansion in the PVC industry, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons/year of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, including projects from companies such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II) [54][59]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The current PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.3%, with the calcium carbide - based production utilization rate at 80% and the ethylene - based production utilization rate at 81.3%. The supply load increased slightly last week but is expected to decline next week [11]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rates of the three major downstream industries remained stable last week, but the overall downstream operating rate was still weak year - on - year. The pipe load increased by 0.9% to 33%, the film load decreased by 4% to 72.9%, and the profile load remained unchanged at 36.9%. The overall downstream load decreased by 0.1% to 42.8% [11]. - **Export Demand**: India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the weak export pressure in the third quarter, with expectations of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 4.1 tons to 79.1 tons [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The Sino - US economic and trade talks declared a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff. Under the macro - positive news, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the futures market has a slight increase. PE's supply is recovering, while PP's future supply pressure is large. The inventory in the upstream and mid - stream of polyolefins has accumulated. The cost - side support is weak, and the downstream agricultural film's operating rate continues to rise [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7329元/吨（+15），PP主力合约收盘价为7091元/吨（-4），LL华北现货为7250元/吨（+30），LL华东现货为7280元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7040元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-79元/吨（+15），LL华东基差为-49元/吨（-15），PP华东基差为-51元/吨（+4） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.1%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.3%（+0.4%）；PE油制生产利润为368.6元/吨（-5.1），PP油制生产利润为-111.4元/吨（-5.1），PDH制PP生产利润为225.1元/吨（+17.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No relevant detailed data provided 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为-74.1元/吨（-2.7），PP进口利润为-508.6元/吨（-2.8），PP出口利润为30.6美元/吨（+0.3） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为13.1%（+0.4%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.3%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.8%（+0.0%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Polyolefin upstream and mid - stream inventories have accumulated, but no specific inventory data provided [2]