证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2026年01月19日-01月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周05合约为上涨态势，周一开盘价为147600元/吨，周五收盘价为181520元/吨，周涨幅为22.98%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为22217吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13914吨，环比减少 1.48%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2882吨，环比减少1.83%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产3115吨， 环比减少0.95%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产2306吨，环比减少3.91%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年12月碳酸锂需求量为130118实物吨，环比减少2.49%,预测下月需求量为11716 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月30日15时49分 报告导读： 今日贵金属大幅回撤，沪金主力收跌4.71%，沪银主力收跌6.03%，铂金主力收跌11.79%，钯金主力收涨跌11.87%。①核心逻 辑，短期避险方面，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和，中长期仍存；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期存在支撑。②避险属性方 面，前期围绕格陵兰岛资源争端及北美贸易关税摩擦的地缘紧张局势在近日出现缓和迹象。最新特朗普称俄对乌部分地区停火一 周，贸易战与地缘异动风险短期缓和。③货币属性方面，沃什再度成为美联储主席热门人选。由于沃什长期以偏鹰派立场著称。美 联储1月维持利率不变，鲍威尔称通胀和就业风险均有所缓解。美国消费者信心跌至逾11年半最低，就业疲软与高物价加剧忧虑。 美国11月核心资本财订单连续第五个月增长，提振经济前景。美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房租支出增加。目前市场 预期美联储下次降息或到6月。美元指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑；铂金氢能产业铂基催 化剂需求预期强劲；钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoints - The report provides an analysis of dividend progress and index futures basis for major indices in January 2026, highlighting the current status and historical trends in dividends and basis rates [2][6][21]. Group 1: Dividend Statistics of Major Indices - In the year 2026, the dividend progress for major indices is as follows: - For the CSI 300, one company has passed the board proposal stage - For the SSE 50, one company has passed the board proposal stage - For the CSI 500, one company is in the implementation stage - For the CSI 1000, one company is in the proposal stage [11][13]. - The cumulative dividends for the CSI 500 index is 1.30 billion, while the other indices have not reported any cumulative dividends yet [13][15]. Group 2: Industry Dividend Statistics - The dividend progress for various industry indices in 2026 includes: - In the pharmaceutical and biological sector, one company is in the implementation stage and one has passed the board proposal stage - In the public utilities sector, one company has passed the board proposal stage - In the machinery equipment sector, one company is in the proposal stage and one is in the board proposal stage - In the coal sector, one company is in the implementation stage - In the oil and petrochemical sector, one company is in the implementation stage [12][15]. - The cumulative dividends reported for the pharmaceutical sector is 0.66 billion and for the coal sector is 1.30 billion [15]. Group 3: Index Futures Basis - The annualized basis rates considering dividends for various contracts are as follows: - For the CSI 300: near-month -0.25%, far-month 0.04%, near-quarter 0.44%, far-quarter 0.55% - For the SSE 50: near-month -0.89%, far-month -1.30%, near-quarter -1.67%, far-quarter -1.57% - For the CSI 500: near-month -4.14%, far-month -2.29%, near-quarter -0.53%, far-quarter 1.11% - For the CSI 1000: near-month -1.56%, far-month 1.25%, near-quarter 4.20%, far-quarter 5.11% [6][25]. - The report includes a detailed table of basis data for each contract, showing the latest closing prices, basis, dividend impact, and annualized basis rates [25][27].

摘要：本周，南华综合指数上涨72.31点，涨幅为2.6%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和白银，原油品种指数涨跌 幅为6.62%，贡献度为1.09%；白银品种指数涨跌幅为11.92%，贡献度为0.72%。南华工业品指数上涨49.5点，涨 幅为1.35%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和铜，原油品种指数贡献度为1.16%；铜品种指数贡献度为0.19%。南华 金属指数上涨59.45点，涨幅为-0.81%；其中影响力最大的品种为碳酸锂，碳酸锂贡献度为-0.64%。南华能化指数 上涨36.54点，涨幅为2.32%；其中影响力最大的品种 南华商品指数周报 2026年1月30日 指数发展部 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏 (F03103098) 王怡琳 (F03118352) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 摘要 本周,南华综合指数上涨72.31点，涨幅为2.6%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和白银，原油品种指数涨跌幅为 6.62%，贡献度为1.09%；白银品种指数涨跌幅为11.92%，贡献度为0.72%。南华工业品指数上涨49.5点，涨幅为 1.35%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和铜，原油品种指数贡献度为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend. Next week, demand may remain weak, and with a projected decrease in maintenance and a slight increase in scheduled production, the market may experience narrow - range adjustments [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - This week, the 05 contract opened at 4,806 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 4,921 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.39% [5]. - In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 344,650 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 137,430 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.86%. Supply pressure decreased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and scheduled production is expected to increase slightly [5]. - The overall downstream operating rate was 44.86%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and paste resin were also higher than the historical average, while the operating rate of downstream films decreased by 0.36 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain weak [5]. - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 799.55 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 20.60%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 49.44 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 64.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1,908.23 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 3.80%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6]. - Factory inventory was 308,109 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 223,969 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.78%, and ethylene factory inventory was 84,140 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.69%. Social inventory was 576,486 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.65%. The inventory days of production enterprises was 5.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92%. Overall inventory is at a neutral level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and trading volume trends of the main contract, and the spread analysis of the main contract through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][13][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, etc. of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit and consumption of chlor - alkali in Shandong [19][22][25][27][30]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and weekly maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods through charts [32][34]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate of PVC, and the cost, profit, production, and consumption of paste resin. It also presents real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data [37][39][41][45][47]. - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [49]. - **Ethylene Method**: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and the price difference of ethylene FOB and vinyl chloride import through charts [51]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025 [54]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to experience narrow - range adjustments next week [58].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（1.19~1.23） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周高位震荡，上周主力合约上涨1.53%，周五收盘报24290元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，消费有所影响，但注意铝代 铜机会。国内基本面上，需求处于淡季，关注后期消费变化。上周LME库存507275吨，较前周出现小幅 增加，SHFE周库存增11174吨至197053吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger, with overall trading volume being average. Jinchuan's ex - factory price remained firm, and the arrival of imported goods alleviated the shortage to some extent. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose, with mines continuously raising their quotes. The situation in Indonesia was relatively stable but also showed a slight increase, and the bullish sentiment was strong. Ferronickel prices continued to rise, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and the de - stocking process was going well. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will experience wide - range fluctuations at a high level, and intraday trading is recommended. The main contract of stainless steel will trend stronger, and short - sellers should wait and see [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices fluctuated and trended stronger this week, with average trading volume. Jinchuan's ex - factory price was firm, and the shortage was alleviated by imported goods. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose, ferronickel prices increased, stainless steel inventories decreased, refined nickel inventories were high, and new energy vehicle data had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will have wide - range fluctuations at a high level, and intraday trading is the main approach. The main contract of stainless steel will trend stronger, and short - sellers should wait and see [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes**: Red soil nickel ore prices increased (NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% up 5.56% to $57; NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% up 8.33% to $52). Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 4.35% to 33,000 yuan/ton, while the electroplating - grade remained unchanged. Low - nickel ferronickel in Shandong rose 4.55% to 3450 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel rose 1.46% to 1040 yuan/nickel point. Shanghai electrolytic nickel rose 0.93% to 153,530 yuan/ton, Shanghai Russian nickel rose 0.32% to 145,930 yuan/ton, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased 1.04% to 152,700 yuan/ton. 304 stainless steel rose 1.26% to 15,062.5 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: Nickel ore prices rose by $3 - 4 per wet ton this week, and shipping costs remained stable. As of January 22, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 12.2862 million wet tons, a decrease of 3.52%. In December 2025, nickel ore imports were 1.9928 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.33% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13%. Philippine mines' quotes jumped continuously this week, while the situation in Indonesia was relatively stable with a slight increase [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated higher with average trading volume. Jinchuan's ex - factory price provided strong support, and the arrival of imported goods relieved the shortage pressure. Globally, the nickel market is expected to remain in an oversupply pattern, with traditional demand growth being weak, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In December 2025, China's refined nickel production was 29,058 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.39%. In December 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 23,394.299 tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.64% and a year - on - year increase of 27.88%. Battery - grade nickel sulfate price decreased by 1500 yuan/ton to 33,000 yuan/ton, while the electroplating - grade remained unchanged. LME inventory decreased by 2004 tons to 283,728 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 2614 tons to 50,794 tons [22][25][26]. - **Ferronickel Market**: Ferronickel prices rose. Low - nickel ferronickel in Shandong rose to 3450 yuan/ton, and high - nickel ferronickel rose to 1040 yuan/nickel point. In December 2025, China's ferronickel production was 21,400 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.14%. In December 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The inventory of ferronickel in December was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 tons of nickel [43][45][48]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The price of 304 stainless steel rose by 1.26% to 15,062.5 yuan/ton. In December, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2605 million tons, with 300 - series production decreasing by 0.82% month - on - month. Stainless steel imports were 145,000 tons, and exports were 485,000 tons. As of January 23, the national stainless steel inventory was 921,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5600 tons [57][62][65]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In December, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and 7.2%. From January to December, production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2%. In December, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. The domestic power battery installation volume was 98.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.9% and a year - on - year increase of 35.1% [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, nickel prices continued to fluctuate at a high level. The positions did not increase or decrease significantly, and both long and short positions were doing high - selling and low - buying. The MACD had alternating dead and golden crosses, indicating the possibility of further upward movement. As the 20 - day moving average rose, the lower support line gradually moved up. The high - level fluctuation pattern is expected to continue [79]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Summary - **Impact on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore is neutral - bullish as mines' quotes rise and Indonesia is stable with a slight increase. Ferronickel is neutral - bullish as prices rise and the cost line moves up. Refined nickel is neutral with short - term support from Jinchuan's ex - factory price and long - term oversupply and high inventory. Stainless steel is neutral - bullish with inventory decline and cost increase. New energy is neutral with good production data but the continued substitution of ternary batteries [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will have wide - range fluctuations at a high level, and intraday trading is recommended. The main contract of stainless steel will trend stronger, and short - sellers should wait and see [84][85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price of rebar oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.48%, accompanied by increased trading volume and decreased open interest. Currently, rebar supply is stable while demand is weak, and the fundamentals remain weak. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, but the cost support is a relative positive factor. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.30%, also with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand. Attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price of iron ore rose first and then fell, with a daily increase of 0.06%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded. However, with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, and the demand for iron ore is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **National general public budget revenue**: In 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 21.6 trillion yuan, a 1.7% decrease compared to 2024. Tax revenue increased by 0.8%, showing a steady recovery trend throughout the year, reflecting the stable and progressive development of the Chinese economy. Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.3%, mainly because the one - time arrangement of special income remittance by central units in 2024 raised the base [7]. - **Transportation fixed - asset investment**: In 2025, China's transportation fixed - asset investment continued to operate at a high level, with an expected investment of over 3.6 trillion yuan. Specifically, railway investment was 901.5 billion yuan, highway and waterway investment exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, and civil aviation investment was 120 billion yuan [8]. - **Vietnamese anti - dumping measures on Chinese H - beams**: Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that the anti - dumping duties on H - beams originating from China will expire on September 6, 2027. Interested parties should submit an application for anti - dumping sunset review investigation before February 27, 2026 [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin, as well as the national average prices, are provided. For example, the rebar price in Shanghai (HRB400E, 20mm) was 3,220 yuan, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,317 yuan, unchanged. The hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai (4.75mm) was 3,270 yuan, down 20 yuan, and the national average price was 3,300 yuan, down 1 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The prices of PB powder (at Shandong ports), Tangshan iron concentrate, and relevant indicators such as freight rates, SGX swaps, and iron ore price indices are presented. For instance, the price of PB powder was 789 yuan, down 9 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active rebar contract was 3,128 yuan, with a decline of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, an increase of 191,871 lots, and the open interest was 1,734,110 lots, a decrease of 51,270 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active hot - rolled coil contract was 3,288 yuan, with a decline of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, an increase of 89,353 lots, and the open interest was 1,529,652 lots, a decrease of 17,466 lots [14]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active iron ore contract was 791.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.06%. The trading volume was 278,296 lots, a decrease of 29,418 lots, and the open interest was 541,228 lots, a decrease of 14,164 lots [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory (steel mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coil from 2022 to 2026 [16][17][19]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts display the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, including their seasonal changes and环比 changes [24][25][28]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts present the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit situation of 94 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills from 2022 to 2026 [32][34][36]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, and the inventory increase has expanded. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar increased slightly by 0.28 tons. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the shutdown of short - process steel mills, the supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues to weaken, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions have decreased. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, which drags down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but the positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the steel price oscillates and stabilizes under the dominant optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: There are changes in both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil, and the inventory reduction has narrowed. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased by 3.80 tons, reaching a relatively high level again, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil shows certain resilience, with a slight increase in weekly apparent demand, mainly due to the high output of downstream cold - rolled products. However, attention should be paid to the potential contradiction accumulation, and the external demand for exports is average. The demand resilience needs to be tracked. Currently, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil remain at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakly stable. It is expected that the price will continue to oscillate, but there are concerns about demand, and attention should be paid to the demand performance to prevent the intensification of industrial contradictions [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore runs smoothly. The daily average pig iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly this week. The contradictions in the steel market in the off - season are accumulating, and steel mills mainly conduct normal restocking before the festival, with limited positive effects. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will continue to be weak. At the same time, the arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have stabilized. According to the shipping schedule, the reduction in port arrivals is limited, and the domestic ore supply is stable, coupled with high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. Thanks to the warming of commodity sentiment, the iron ore price has oscillated and rebounded, but the supply pressure remains high, and the demand is weak. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and the ore price is still prone to pressure. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to the restocking situation of steel mills [41].

证券日报网讯1月30日，国投资本（600061）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2025年子公司国投证 券营业收入同比下降，主要由于旗下国投期货根据财政部有关标准仓单的会计政策要求，对相关收入确 认口径进行了规范调整，导致"其他业务收入"科目同比有所减少。该调整属于会计处理层面的统一规 范，不影响公司实际经营现金流与业务实质，亦不会对国投证券的持续经营能力与长期发展战略构成影 响。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, geopolitical events supported the fuel oil price to fluctuate upwards. The high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,737 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8.52%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,187 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.59% [5] - The spot price spread of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has risen to the highest premium level in more than four months. Demand warmed up slightly after the year - end holidays, and bunkering activities are expected to be stronger before the Lunar New Year in February. However, sufficient arbitrage cargoes from the West will pressure the market fundamentals. The volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes arriving in Singapore in January is expected to rebound, and the inflow of cargoes will increase the regional inventory in January and February [5] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market fluctuates within a range under stable bunker demand and sufficient immediate supply. Seasonal demand shortage in the power generation industry may suppress the Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market [5] - International crude oil prices will mainly fluctuate slightly upwards. Geopolitical events may continue to support the fuel oil price to fluctuate upwards. Operation suggestions: trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,650 - 2,850 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,100 - 3,300 range in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - ly Views - Geopolitical events supported fuel oil prices to rise. High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil prices increased by 8.52% and 4.59% respectively. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil spot spread reached a four - month high. Downstream demand warmed up, but Western arbitrage cargoes will pressure the market. The high - sulfur fuel oil market fluctuates within a range, and the power generation demand shortage suppresses the market. International crude oil prices may rise slightly, and operation suggestions are given [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract price rose from 2,463 to 2,523, an increase of 2.44%, and the LU main contract price rose from 2,931 to 3,066, an increase of 4.61% [6] - **Spot prices**: Among various spot products, the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 0.43%, while the prices of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel decreased by - 0.26%, - 1.34%, - 0.36%, and - 0.85% respectively. The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The report presents charts of Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross margin, but lacks specific data descriptions in the text [8][9][10] 3.4 Inventory Data - In Singapore, from November 12, 2025, to January 21, 2026, the fuel oil inventory showed fluctuations. For example, on November 19, 2025, the inventory increased by 2570,000 barrels, and on November 26, 2025, it decreased by 2850,000 barrels [11] - The report also includes a Singapore fuel oil inventory season chart and a Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trend chart, but lacks specific data descriptions in the text [12][13] 3.5 Spread Data - The report shows a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but lacks specific data descriptions in the text [15]