Group 1 - The core view of the report indicates that the index is expected to reach new highs, with limited adjustment space and a short-term nature of the recent market corrections [3][12]. - Market sentiment is improving due to a basic consensus reached between China and the US on addressing mutual concerns, which is likely to reduce short-term uncertainties [3][12]. - The technology sector remains the main focus of the current market trend, with a consensus among investors that technology will continue to lead economic expectations [4][13]. Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of AI as a core theme in the China-US resonance, highlighting sectors such as communications, electronics, computing, media, and major internet companies [4][13]. - The report identifies a new cycle driven by supply-demand balance in the non-ferrous metals sector, suggesting a focus on gold, rare earths, and copper due to the global monetary easing cycle and strategic resource positioning [4][13]. - Future industries are highlighted as key growth points, with a focus on quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion, brain-machine interfaces, embodied intelligence, and sixth-generation mobile communications [5][14].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a rebound, with a significant increase in investor confidence, particularly noted on October 24, indicating a potential end to the recent adjustment phase and the beginning of a new stable upward trend in the market [1][4]. Market Trends - The current market adjustment is nearing its end, with the adjustment magnitude reaching historical lower limits. External disturbances are diminishing, and recent policy signals remain positive, suggesting an improvement in market risk appetite [9]. - The active trend-following funds have largely completed their reduction, and market trading volumes have returned to rational levels, indicating that the previously discussed style switch is likely over [3]. Sector Focus - The technology sector is expected to remain a key focus, with strong performance anticipated in AI computing, robotics, high-end manufacturing, and new materials. Additionally, opportunities in China's advantageous industries going global, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and new energy vehicles, are worth noting [5][12]. - The technology growth style is projected to lead the market in the fourth quarter, supported by ongoing trends in AI capital expenditure and advancements in domestic AI industries [7][16]. Earnings Reports - The third-quarter earnings reports are expected to validate the performance of the technology growth sector, which has maintained high levels of interest. The current earnings disclosure rate for A-shares stands at 20.8% [11][9]. - Key highlights from the third-quarter reports are concentrated in the technology sector and "anti-involution" concepts, with strong performance noted in electronics and media within the technology sector [10]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to actively position themselves for the next phase of opportunities rather than focusing solely on defensive strategies. The technology growth sector is expected to continue leading the upward trend [9][20]. - Emphasis should be placed on sectors with strong fundamental support, particularly in technology and certain cyclical sectors, as these are likely to outperform following the adjustment phase [13][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market's shock digestion may be nearing its end. With the positive factors such as policy support and incremental funds, the mid - term outlook for stock index is bullish. It is recommended to hold existing long positions, set stop - profits, and add positions opportunistically. Also, buy put options to protect long positions [9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental View - **Market Performance**: Last week, the broader market oscillated upwards to a new high, with all four major indices rising. Among the style indices, the growth style index had the largest increase, followed by the cyclical and financial indices. In the Shenwan industries, most sectors rose, with TMT sectors such as communication, electronics, electrical equipment, machinery, and media leading the gains, with the former's increase exceeding 11%. Only agriculture and food and beverage sectors closed down [4][16][19] - **Economic Data**: In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The economy showed a recovery trend but was still in the contraction phase. In terms of sub - items, both supply and demand of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover slightly in September, with production rising by 1.1% and new orders rising by 0.2%. However, raw material and finished product prices fell again after a sharp rise last month, down 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling for 28 consecutive months to 6.30% as of September 2025 [4][28] - **Policy**: The Political Bureau set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and boost the capital market. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, and reduced interest rates on existing mortgages. The CSRC proposed mergers, acquisitions, and market value management to enhance market activity. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [4] - **Performance**: A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter. After the implementation of the reciprocal relationship with the US in April, which increased by 30%, the performance declined in the second quarter. After the rush to export in the second and third quarters, A - share performance is still under test. In the second quarter of 2025, the performance of the IH index slightly rebounded, while the performance of the other three major indices declined [4][58] - **Valuation**: The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 16.9474, with an upper - bound value of 15.58, at the 91.92 percentile since 2010, indicating a relatively high valuation. The ChiNext valuation is relatively low [5][70] 3.2 Capital Flow - **Margin Trading**: In 2024, the net inflow was 274.8 billion yuan. As of October 23, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 634.9 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 6.2 billion yuan in the previous five trading days [6][73] - **Private Funds**: The total scale of private funds increased by 718.2 billion yuan this year, with an increase of 325.4 billion yuan in July and 47 billion yuan in August. The newly registered scale this year was 306.2 billion yuan, with a registration scale of 79.2 billion yuan in July and 42.8 billion yuan in August [6][75] - **Insurance Funds**: In the second quarter of 2025, the market value of A - share stocks and funds held by insurance funds increased by 251.3 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index rose by 1.28%. In the first half of 2025, the market value increased by 641.9 billion yuan, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.03% [6][76] - **ETF**: From April 7 to October 24, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 97.9 billion yuan; last week, the ETF scale decreased by 30.7 billion yuan. As of October 24, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 900 million yuan [6][81] - **Newly Established Funds**: As of September 30, 2025, the share of newly established stock - type funds was 323.3 billion yuan, with 137 billion yuan in the third quarter; the share of newly established hybrid funds was 103.6 billion yuan, with 53 billion yuan in the third quarter [6][84] 3.3 Index and Industry Trends Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, all four major indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased by 2.88%, 2.63%, 3.24%, 3.46%, and 3.25% respectively. Among international indices, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Hang Seng, and Hang Seng Tech increased by 2.20%, 2.31%, 3.61%, 3.62%, and 5.20% respectively [11][15] - **Industry Performance**: Most Shenwan industry sectors rose, with TMT sectors leading the gains, and only agriculture and food and beverage sectors closing down. Among the style indices, the growth style index had the largest increase, followed by the cyclical and financial indices [4][19] 3.4 Main Contract and Basis Trends - **Index and Basis**: The four major indices stabilized and rebounded. The IM basis fluctuated at a high level [22] - **Arbitrage of Main Contracts**: The ratios of IC/IF and IC/IH stopped falling and stabilized, IH/IF oscillated, and the ratios of IM/IF and IM/IH stopped falling [24] 3.5 Policy and Economy - **PMI**: In September 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The economy showed a recovery trend but was still in the contraction phase [28] - **PPI and Inventory Cycle**: Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle. PPI bottomed out and rebounded in June 2023, weakened after two months, and has seen changes in its decline rate since then. In July, industrial enterprise revenue fell for five consecutive months to 2.3%, and inventory fell for five consecutive months to 2.4%, entering the active de - stocking phase [30] - **Social Financing and Credit**: In September 2025, China's social financing scale was 3.7635 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan. Newly added RMB loans were 1.608 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 366.2 billion yuan [33] - **Medium - and Long - Term Credit Growth Rate**: The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling for 28 consecutive months to 6.30% as of September 2025 [36] - **Policy for Medium - and Long - Term Funds**: The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market aims to increase the investment scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds in A - shares, extend the assessment cycle, and form a joint force for policy implementation [38] - **Other Policies**: The central bank created new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, reduced interest rates, and carried out debt - to - equity swaps to support the capital market and the real economy [42][44][46] 3.6 Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - **Revenue Growth**: In the 2025 semi - annual report, the revenue growth rates of the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and CSI 500 rebounded, while the growth rates of other indices declined or turned negative [55] - **Net Profit Growth**: Except for the SSE 50 index, the growth rates of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, ChiNext, and Science and Technology Innovation Board rebounded [55] 3.7 Other Aspects - **Technical Analysis**: Not provided in detail in the given content - **Restricted Stock Unlocking**: The unlocking volume was relatively large in mid - October [103] - **Secondary Market Shareholder Transactions**: Last week, major shareholders in the secondary market significantly net - sold 10.1 billion yuan [102]

- The report constructs a "Hot Money Activity Indicator" based on the data from the Dragon and Tiger List, which shows the participation enthusiasm of hot money traders. The indicator has been marginally rising but the slope of the rise has been slowing down, indicating that the enthusiasm of hot money traders is peaking[12] - The "Retail Investor Activity Indicator" constructed in the report shows that since September 11, the activity of retail investors has been fluctuating and has not significantly increased even when the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year on October 25[12] - The report suggests that the recent marginal cooling of both hot money and retail investor sentiment can be verified by the continuous shrinkage of market turnover[12] - The "Insider Trader Activity Indicator" constructed in the report shows that the activity of insider traders is in sync with the market trend, with the equity market rising and the indicator maintaining a warming trend[15] - The report uses the "Price Segmentation System" to analyze the Shanghai Composite Index, showing that the daily line of the index maintains a marginal upward trend, and the weekly line is basically coincident with the daily line[14] - The "Hot Money Activity Indicator" value as of October 24 is close to leveling off[12] - The "Retail Investor Activity Indicator" has been fluctuating since September 11[12] - The "Insider Trader Activity Indicator" shows a warming trend in sync with the market[15] - The "Price Segmentation System" shows a +2.88% range fluctuation for the Shanghai Composite Index from October 20 to October 24[14]

Market Insights - The report indicates that the U.S. inflation data for September was lower than expected, supporting the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the end of October, which is expected to boost global risk appetite [12][13] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session has set strategic deployments for the next five years, emphasizing the need to achieve annual economic and social development goals, with a GDP growth rate of 4.8% in Q3 aligning with expectations [3][14] Industry Configuration - Strong representative stocks in the growth industry cycle typically lead market trends during healthy adjustment periods, often bottoming out 1 week to 1 month ahead of industry lines and market indices [4][24] - Recent coal price increases are attributed to improved supply-demand dynamics, with stricter production regulations and seasonal demand expected to sustain higher prices through Q4 [5][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of actively positioning for a new round of technology market trends, particularly in AI infrastructure and applications, as well as sectors with robust performance support such as power equipment and non-ferrous metals [32][33]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a strong performance year-to-date, with the ChiNext Index leading at a 48.09% increase, followed by the Sci-Tech 50 at 47.86% [1] - The communication sector index has the highest weekly gain at 11.55%, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index saw the largest decline at 1.36% [2] - Approximately 59% of respondents reported making profits in the A-share market this week, with 50% of them earning within 10% [6] Group 2 - There is a growing optimism among investors regarding the A-share market, with 79% of respondents believing that the Shanghai Composite Index could reach 4000 points next week [6][8] - The technology sector has seen a significant increase in investor interest, with the proportion of respondents favoring it rising from 32% to 64% [9][10] - The overall risk perception of the A-share market has shifted, with only 16% of respondents considering it high risk, a decrease of 7 percentage points [8]

Group 1 - A-shares have shown positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 2.88%, Shenzhen Component Index up 4.73%, and ChiNext Index up 8.05% this week [1] - Huaxi Securities indicates a return to a "slow bull" trend, driven by a global technology AI market rally, with expectations for short-term risk appetite to improve [1] - The focus will be on the earnings reports of A-share companies and US tech giants next week, as the global AI arms race accelerates [1] Group 2 - Everbright Securities highlights that under liquidity-driven market conditions, the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is likely to become a mid-term focus, with catalysts such as the onset of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle and ongoing AI industry trends [2] - In case of market volatility, attention should shift to sectors with stagnant growth, such as high-dividend and consumer sectors [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities maintains that the slow bull trend and technology as the main line remain unchanged, with expectations for risk appetite to rise and liquidity to remain loose [3] - The report suggests that after adjustments, technology and cyclical sectors may outperform, particularly those related to AI and rising commodity prices [3] - Recommendations include low-cost allocations in sectors benefiting from the "14th Five-Year Plan" and improved third-quarter earnings, such as telecommunications, electronics, media, machinery, and new energy [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The thematic indices have shown various patterns, with 25 indices indicating a bottoming pattern, 21 indicating a breakout, and 22 indicating a main rising pattern, primarily in the electronic industry [12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots has risen to 70%, while the leading stock, Changsheng Bearing, is trading 6.9% below its 60-day moving average (MA60) [3][17]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the Deepseek theme has increased to 58%, with the leading stock, Daily Interaction, trading 13.7% below its MA60 [3][17]. - The report outlines two main objectives for the thematic database: to find investment opportunities and to provide warnings for potential peaks in the market [9].

Group 1 - The overall disclosure rate for companies in the A-share market is currently 20.8% [1] - In terms of industry performance, the technology sector, particularly electronics and media, has shown outstanding results [1] - The profitability of sectors such as steel, building materials, non-ferrous metals, and power equipment is continuously recovering [1] Group 2 - Non-bank financials and defense industries have performed exceptionally well [1] - Large-cap companies in the technology sector have benefited from the AI wave, with notable performances from companies like Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Shengyi Electronics [1] - In the anti-involution sector, companies such as CATL, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum have seen a continuous improvement in profitability [1]

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, emphasizing the importance of profitability as the key determinant for market performance after a rapid valuation recovery [1][10][33] - The market structure is characterized by a "dual-driven" approach, prioritizing technology first and PPI trading as a supplementary strategy [1][10][30] - The Fourth Plenary Session has reaffirmed the significance of "industry" and "technology," indicating that the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize these dimensions [2][16][18] Group 2 - The current highlights from the third quarter reports focus on technology and the anti-involution trend, with significant profit growth observed in sectors such as electronics and media [3][21][23] - Among large-cap companies, notable performers in the technology sector include Cambrian, Haiguang Information, and Shengyi Technology, benefiting from the AI wave [3][26][29] - In the anti-involution sector, companies like CATL, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum have shown a continuous recovery in profitability [3][27][28] Group 3 - The report suggests a core investment strategy post-Fourth Plenary Session, recommending a focus on technology, military industry, and sectors benefiting from PPI improvements [4][30] - The "4+1" industry allocation strategy includes technology growth, self-sufficiency, military industry, cyclical sectors, and stable dividend stocks [4][30] - The report highlights structural opportunities in overseas markets due to improved trade relations, particularly in sectors with high export ratios to Europe [4][30]