Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant drop in the stock price of Da Cheng Biochemical Technology, which fell by 10.0% to 0.099 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 3.9634 million yuan as of 15:30 on August 4 [1] - Da Cheng Biochemical Technology Group Limited is identified as a leading manufacturer of corn biochemical products in China, focusing on the production and sale of corn refining products [1] - The company is headquartered in Hong Kong, with its main production base located in the corn golden belt of Jilin Province [1] Group 2 - As of the 2024 annual report, Da Cheng Biochemical Technology reported total operating revenue of 1.853 billion yuan and a net profit of 713 million yuan [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【粕类周报】 中美现行政策下，关注远月低多机会 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-08-04 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：中美现行政策下，关注远月低多机会 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏空， | （1）本周美豆优良率升至70%，未来两周产区降雨偏少，但气温偏低，预期影响有限。（2）巴西大豆集中到港压力下，8月国内大豆压榨预期在千万吨以 上，豆粕预期继续乐酷；10-1月国内买船进度偏慢，中美现行贸易政策下，远月存去库预期。（3）中加贸易政策下，国内进口菜粕和菜籽供应预期缩量， | | | 中期偏多 | 国内菜粕在9月前存在去库预期，9月后供应存在一定的不确定性。 | | 需求 | 豆粕偏多， 菜粕偏空 | （1）生猪和禽类养殖短期预期维持高存栏，支撑饲用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重，预期影响远月生猪供应；（2）豆粕性价比较高，提货 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction this week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the extension of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs before August 12 [1] - Precious metals are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [2] - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and policy, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [1][2][3] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose first and then fell. The Brent 10 contract rose 2.84%, and the SC09 contract rose 2.92%. OPEC +'s production increase in September can only partially hedge risks and demand. The oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly after a correction [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: FU and LU cracks continued to decline. The fundamentals of the high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are weak, and the crack spreads are also weak [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, the domestic production volume decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and inventory destocking was weak. The price follows the crude oil direction with limited fluctuation [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The Middle East CP was significantly reduced, and the domestic market was under pressure. The price was running at a low level [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: After the US non - farm payrolls data was far below expectations, the dollar fell, and precious metals rebounded. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended in the fluctuating trend [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper fluctuated and closed down. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions [3] - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly at night. The macro - sentiment was repeated, and the inventory increased. It may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate [4] - **Zinc**: The 08 contract entered the delivery month. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was recommended to be shorted on rebounds [7] - **Lead**: The price continued to decline. There was support at the bottom. It is recommended to hold long positions [8] - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The upstream price support weakened, and the inventory was at a high level. Look for opportunities to short [9] - **Tin**: LME tin rose. Pay attention to the domestic supply - demand game. Hold high - level short positions [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply - demand was relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to the support at 5800 [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated narrowly. The supply increased slightly, and it followed the trend of manganese silicon [19] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It opened lower and fluctuated. The futures price was at a reasonable level. Try to go long with a light position in the short - term [11] - **Polysilicon**: The price fluctuated sharply and corrected. The PS2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 46000 - 47000 yuan/ton [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated downward. The supply pressure remained, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13] - **Urea**: The agricultural demand entered the off - season. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate weakly [24] - **Methanol**: The port inventory increased seasonally, and the domestic supply was sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of macro - policies [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price weakened. There was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the third quarter, and monthly spread band - trading is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: The supply pressure was relatively large, and the price continued to run weakly [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene was expected to be relatively abundant, and the price was easy to fall but hard to rise. Polyolefin futures continued to consolidate [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC continued to weaken, and the short - term price was expected to fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda ran weakly [29] - **PX & PTA**: The PX and PTA prices fell. PTA continued to accumulate inventory, and there was a driving force for processing margin repair in the medium - term [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to decline, and the supply was expected to increase [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: The prices followed the raw materials down. There was an expectation of improved demand for short - fiber in the peak season [32] Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel price fell. The demand was weak, and the "anti - involution" cooled down. The short - term price was under pressure [14] - **Iron Ore**: The price fell last week. The supply and demand changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices declined. The supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the prices were affected by policy expectations [16][17] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The "anti - involution" commodities continued to correct. The US soybean was under pressure, and the market was expected to fluctuate [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: There was a risk of increased adjustment in the short - term. A long - on - dips strategy is recommended in the medium - term [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed futures price is expected to consolidate. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short - term [38] - **Soybean No.1**: The price fluctuated and corrected. Pay attention to the weather in the US and Northeast China [39] - **Corn**: The corn futures price continued to fluctuate weakly. The US corn was under pressure, and the domestic market focused on the supply in the circulation link [40] - **Live Pig**: The futures price continued to correct. It is recommended for the industry to hedge at high prices [41] - **Egg**: The spot price fell. The 26 - year - later futures contracts are expected to be stronger than those in the second half of 25 [42] - **Cotton**: Both US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton fell. The downstream demand was weak, and a wait - and - see or intraday trading strategy is recommended [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar fluctuated. The domestic sugar production had uncertainties. The price was expected to fluctuate, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [44] - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. Pay attention to the price of early - maturing apples and the new - season output estimate [45] - **Timber**: The futures price fluctuated. The supply - demand situation improved, and a long - biased strategy is recommended [46] - **Paper Pulp**: The futures price fell. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand was weak. The price may return to low - level fluctuations, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFI European route index is expected to decline significantly this week. It is recommended to hold short positions [20] - **Stock Index**: A - shares fluctuated lower. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to low - level consumption sectors [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures fluctuated. The yield curve is expected to steepen in the short - term [49]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The fraud incident of US non - farm payroll data from May to June in 2025 has multi - dimensional and differentiated impacts on the global commodity market, reshaping the pricing logic of new energy metals, iron ore, and oilseed agricultural products through the transmission chain of "economic expectation revision - monetary policy shift - industrial policy game." Different varieties show differentiation due to policy sensitivity differences. Investors need to pay close attention to the September Fed interest - rate meeting and China's "dual - carbon" policy details, which may be the key nodes for secondary pricing of the market [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Futures: The Tug - of - War between Demand Expectation Collapse and Geopolitical Conflicts - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June exposed the real weakness of the US job market, causing the market's expectation of crude oil demand to cool rapidly. The revised non - farm data showed that the new employment in May and June was only 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, far lower than the previously announced 144,000 and 147,000. Brent crude oil futures price once fell below $70/barrel after the incident was exposed, a decline of about 15% from the May high. The long - term demand - side impact depends on the pace of the US economic soft landing and the actual demand recovery in China. If the Fed cuts interest rates as expected in the fourth quarter, it may help improve the macro - expectation and support the oil price center [6]. - Geopolitical factors partially offset the demand concerns. OPEC + members have agreed in principle to significantly increase crude oil production again in September, planning to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day. Coupled with the rising expectation of the US imposing a 10% tariff on imported crude oil, international oil prices rebounded to around $75 in July. The crude oil market is in a volatile pattern of "weak reality" and "strong expectation" [6]. - In August, the supply side may increase to a certain extent, but the increase may be limited. The demand side is supported by the traditional peak season in the US, and the inventory - reduction trend is expected to continue, providing bottom support for oil prices. However, the pressure of OPEC + production increase still exists, and long - term crude oil prices face upward pressure. Domestic chemical futures are expected to be differentiated due to raw material costs and supply - demand factors [7][8]. 2. Gold Futures Regain Momentum: Driven by Both Safe - Haven Premium and Monetary Policy Shift - The market trust crisis triggered by the fraud of US non - farm data from May to June and the expectation of Fed policy shift jointly pushed the gold price to break through the historical high. After the release of weak non - farm data, the dollar index tumbled, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September soared from 46% to 73% [10]. - Spot gold soared after the non - farm data was announced, rising more than $70 and closing up 2.21% at $3362.88/ounce. COMEX gold futures broke through $2600/ounce. Central bank gold - buying behavior further strengthened the safe - haven attribute of gold. Goldman Sachs predicted that if the concerns about US fiscal sustainability intensify, the gold price may break through $3150/ounce by the end of 2025 [10][11]. 3. Copper Futures: The Intensified Game between Industrial Attributes and Policy Disturbances - The Trump administration's decision to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper pushed up the LME copper price, while the fraud of US non - farm data weakened the global industrial demand logic for copper. In June 2025, the global refined copper inventory increased by 12% compared with May, but the copper price premium in the US Midwest remained at a high level of $450/ton. The COMEX copper price closed at $9200/ton in July, down 7% from the May high but still higher than the beginning - of - year level [13]. 4. Aluminum Futures: The Balance between Cost Support and Demand Contraction - The fraud of US non - farm data from May to June led to concerns about global and US economic recession, causing the LME aluminum price to fall by 4% in June. However, the 30% increase in European natural gas prices pushed up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, supporting the price to stabilize above $2000/ton. The adjustment of China's export structure was a key variable. The 22% increase in aluminum product exports to ASEAN in the first half of the year partially offset the impact of US tariffs. The supply - demand re - balance reduced the aluminum price volatility from 18% in May to 12% in June [14]. 5. New Energy Metal Futures: The Game between Cost Support and Capacity Clearance 5.1 Lithium Carbonate: Bottom - Range Fluctuation and Policy - Driven Expectations - The fraud of US non - farm data increased the market's concern about the global economic slowdown, and the expected demand for new energy vehicles decreased. The lithium carbonate price fell to the industry's cash - cost line of 60,000 yuan/ton from May to June. However, China's "dual - carbon" policy and the resilient demand in the energy - storage field partially offset the downward pressure. The volatility of lithium carbonate futures reached a new high since October 2024. After the price decline, the downstream rigid - demand procurement increased, and the price was expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan/ton in the short term [19]. 5.2 Polysilicon: The Tug - of - War between Inventory Reduction and Technological Iteration - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a downward adjustment of the expected photovoltaic installation, causing the polysilicon price to fall below 35,000 yuan/ton in June, a decline of 18% from the May high. The technological iteration of the increasing penetration rate of N - type silicon wafers supported the premium of high - purity polysilicon. The global polysilicon inventory decreased from 398,000 tons at the end of 2024 to 367,000 tons in June 2025, but the inventory - reduction speed was lower than expected. The expectation of China imposing a 15% tariff on polysilicon exports further suppressed market sentiment [20]. 6. Iron Ore: The Tug - of - War between Supply Expectations and Demand Resilience 6.1 Contradiction between Short - Term Demand Support and Long - Term Capacity Impact - After the fraud of US non - farm data, the market's concern about China's crude - steel production control increased. From May to July, the blast - furnace operating rate remained at a high level, and the daily average hot - metal output in July was above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore market demand. The price of iron ore fluctuated between $100 - 105/ton. The expected production of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea at the end of 2025 will have a significant impact on the global iron ore supply pattern, forming a long - term supply suppression. The term structure of the iron ore futures market has changed from the Contango structure to the Back structure [23][24]. 6.2 Superimposed Impact of Policy Game and Green Transformation - The increasing expectation of China imposing a 5% tariff on imported iron ore has raised the spot premium of iron ore. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has changed the iron ore market structure, increasing the demand for high - grade ore. The "near - strong, far - weak" pattern of the iron ore market has become more prominent [25]. 7. Agricultural Product Futures: Indirect Transmission through the Dollar Cycle and Trade Policy 7.1 Soybeans: Double Suppression of South American Bumper Harvest and Tariff Game - The fraud of US non - farm data and the expected South American soybean bumper harvest (expected output of 165 million tons) led to a 4.2% decline in the US soybean futures price in June. China's 10% tariff on US soybeans increased the import cost and reduced the non - commercial net long positions. The sharp decrease in soybean arrivals in China from October will lead to a decline in the operating rate and processing volume of domestic soybean oil mills. The basis of domestic soybean meal and soybean oil futures is at a five - year low, and the prices of soybean oil and soybean meal are likely to rise [29][31]. 7.2 Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal: The Tug - of - War between Trade Barriers and Inventory Cycle - China's 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal in May led to a sharp increase in the coastal rapeseed meal price. The policy of allowing the "domestic sales" of bonded - area rapeseed meal in June forced traders to accelerate exports, reducing domestic inventory. Uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade negotiations may lead to a shortage of rapeseed arrivals in China after October, which will boost the prices of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [32]. 7.3 Biodiesel Policy: Linkage between Energy Attributes and Agricultural Products - The fraud of US non - farm data led to a decrease in the US biodiesel blending ratio of soybean oil, causing the US soybean oil futures price to fall. The EU's revised Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) supported the rebound of rapeseed oil futures. In the long term, palm oil may be a new buying opportunity after a sharp decline [33][34]. 7.4 Sugar: The Expectation of a Medium - to - Long - Term Weak Trend Remains - The impact of non - farm data fraud on sugar prices is limited. The ICE raw - sugar futures price is mainly affected by fundamental factors. The global sugar supply mainly depends on the Brazilian sugar - producing area. The long - term trend of raw - sugar prices may be weak [35][36]. 7.5 Cotton: Double Suppression of Cotton Demand - The fraud of US non - farm data and the political turmoil led to a decline in the cotton futures price. The economic slowdown and the decline in crude oil prices dragging down the price of polyester (a cotton substitute) have double - suppressed cotton demand [37]. 8. The Global Market Will Face Structural Changes such as Policy Reconstruction 8.1 Reconstruction of Global and US - European Monetary Policy Expectations - After the significant downward revision of US non - farm data from May to June, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in 2025 has increased from 75 basis points to 100 basis points. The downward revision of non - farm data is to create momentum for the Fed to restart the interest - rate cut process in September [38]. 8.2 The US May Enter a Cliff - like Interest - Rate Cut in 2026 - After the Fed starts to cut interest rates in September, the US will enter a period of loose monetary policy. In the second quarter of 2026, the Fed may lose its monetary - policy independence and start a cliff - like interest - rate cut [39]. 8.3 Global Financial Asset Reallocation Benefits Chinese Assets - With the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, international financial assets in the US will flow out, and global financial assets will be reallocated, benefiting Chinese assets [40].

Group 1 - The company TianKang Biological (SZ 002100) announced that its 26th temporary board meeting of the 8th session was held on August 1, 2025, via communication voting [1] - The meeting reviewed documents including the proposal for the estimated financing guarantee amount for the year 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, the company's revenue composition is as follows: pig farming accounts for 35.84%, feed accounts for 31.12%, corn storage industry accounts for 12.48%, agricultural product processing accounts for 9.73%, and veterinary drugs account for 5.81% [1]

2025 年 8 月 4 日 美豆出口需求疲软 连粕或震荡运行 豆粕周报 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约跌33.75收于988美分/蒲式耳，跌 幅3.30%；豆粕09合约跌11收于3010元/吨，跌幅0.36%；华 南豆粕现货跌10收于2870元/吨，跌幅0.35%；菜粕09合约 收于2675元/吨，持平于上一周；广西菜粕现货跌30收于 2530元/吨，跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as policies, economic data, and international events. In the short - term, market sentiment may fluctuate, but in the long - run, different sectors will be affected by their own fundamentals. For instance, the capital market is supported by policies, but the real economy's recovery pace and demand are key factors affecting the prices of different commodities [3][5]. - The policy's attitude towards the capital market is positive, but the market may still face adjustments due to external factors and short - term over - valuation. For the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term under the background of weak domestic demand and loose funds, but may be in a short - term shock pattern [3][5]. - Different commodity sectors have different supply - demand situations. Some sectors are facing supply - side challenges, while others are affected by demand - side weakness. For example, the copper and aluminum markets are affected by supply and demand, and the price trends are expected to be weak in the short - term [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Index Futures - **News**: The restoration of VAT on bond interest income, media comments on NVIDIA, stock market supervision, and weak US non - farm employment data [2]. - **Base Ratio**: The base ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts show different trends. The trading logic is to buy on dips based on the policy's support for the capital market [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts showed declines on Friday. There were changes in bond tax policies, and the central bank had a large - scale net withdrawal of funds [4]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in the first half of the year was resilient, but the PMI in July was lower than expected. The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be in a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Both domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The weak non - farm data in the US reversed the market's expectation of the US economy, increasing the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy [6]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market**: The copper price oscillated weakly last week. The inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the import of spot copper was in a loss. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: The aluminum price oscillated weakly. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and the downstream demand was in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term [10]. Zinc - **Market**: The zinc price declined slightly. The zinc ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the downstream consumption weakened. The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: The lead price rose slightly. The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [13]. Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price oscillated weakly. The stainless steel and nickel - iron market was in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [14]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price oscillated and declined. The supply was low, and the demand was weak. The supply is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [15]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The carbonate lithium price declined. The supply reduction is expected to support the price, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [17]. Alumina - **Market**: The alumina price declined. The supply - side contraction policy needs to be observed, and it is recommended to short on rallies [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: The stainless steel price oscillated. The social inventory was still at a high level, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The cast aluminum alloy price oscillated and declined. The downstream was in the off - season, and the price rebound space is expected to be limited [21]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a weak oscillating trend. The export competitiveness decreased, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils was at a low level in the past five years. The price is expected to return to the real - trading logic [23]. Iron Ore - **Market**: The iron ore price rose slightly. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was supported. The price is expected to oscillate following the downstream prices [24][25]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass price declined. The inventory decreased, but the downstream demand did not improve significantly. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [26]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash price was stable. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon showed wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended that investment positions wait and see, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically [28][29]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The industrial silicon price oscillated and declined. The supply was excessive, and the demand was insufficient. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [32]. Polysilicon - **Market**: The polysilicon price showed a high - level oscillation. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [33][34]. Energy - Chemical Category Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU declined significantly. The tire factory's operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct band - trading operations [36][37][39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures declined. The gasoline, diesel, and fuel oil inventories decreased, while the naphtha and aviation kerosene inventories increased. It is recommended to take profits and wait and see [40]. Methanol - **Market**: The methanol price declined. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure [41]. Urea - **Market**: The urea price declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The price decline space is limited [42]. Styrene - **Market**: The styrene spot price was stable, and the futures price declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price is expected to oscillate upward following the cost side [43]. PVC - **Market**: The PVC price declined. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the valuation was high. The price is expected to decline in the short - term [45]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The EG price declined. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The inventory decreased. The price is under downward pressure [46]. PTA - **Market**: The PTA price declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The inventory increased. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to buy on dips following PX [47]. Paraxylene - **Market**: The PX price declined. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to buy on dips following crude oil [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The PE price declined. The cost support existed, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply sides in the short - term [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The PP price declined. The supply and demand were weak, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly following crude oil [51]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market**: The pig price declined over the weekend. The supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The market is paying attention to the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and it is recommended to focus on the spread opportunities [53]. Eggs - **Market**: The egg price declined over the weekend. The supply was large, and the demand was weak. The price is expected to be stable first and then rise, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The US soybean price oscillated weakly, and the domestic soybean meal price was supported. The supply and demand of soybean meal were in a complex situation, and it is recommended to buy on dips at low - cost intervals and expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [55][56]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: The domestic palm oil price declined slightly. The export and production data of Southeast Asian palm oil showed different trends. The price is expected to oscillate [57][58][59]. Sugar - **Market**: The sugar price declined. The sugar production in Brazil and India increased, and the import supply increased. The price is expected to continue to decline [60][61]. Cotton - **Market**: The cotton price declined. The downstream consumption was weak, and the de - stocking speed slowed down. The price is expected to be short - term bearish [62].

Core Viewpoint - The monitoring of market prices for 50 important production materials across nine categories indicates a general upward trend, with 36 products experiencing price increases, while 8 saw declines, and 6 remained stable in late July 2025 compared to mid-July 2025 [1]. Price Changes Summary 1. Black Metals - Rebar (Φ20mm, HRB400E) increased by 143.5 CNY to 3304.1 CNY, a rise of 4.5% - Wire rod (Φ8-10mm, HPB300) rose by 141.5 CNY to 3469.0 CNY, an increase of 4.3% - Ordinary medium plate (20mm, Q235) increased by 123.6 CNY to 3526.3 CNY, a rise of 3.6% - Hot-rolled ordinary plate (4.75-11.5mm, Q235) increased by 175.2 CNY to 3474.3 CNY, a rise of 5.3% [3]. 2. Non-ferrous Metals - Electrolytic copper (1) rose by 1161.1 CNY to 79474.4 CNY, an increase of 1.5% - Aluminum ingot (A00) increased by 175.8 CNY to 20767.5 CNY, a rise of 0.9% - Lead ingot (1) decreased by 53.1 CNY to 16734.4 CNY, a decline of 0.3% - Zinc ingot (0) increased by 528.0 CNY to 22746.3 CNY, a rise of 2.4% [3]. 3. Chemical Products - Sulfuric acid (98%) increased by 10.2 CNY to 704.3 CNY, a rise of 1.5% - Caustic soda (liquid, 32%) decreased by 0.8 CNY to 871.7 CNY, a decline of 0.1% - Methanol (first grade) increased by 34.1 CNY to 2255.5 CNY, a rise of 1.5% - Polyvinyl chloride (SG5) increased by 197.7 CNY to 5056.7 CNY, a rise of 4.1% [3]. 4. Oil and Natural Gas - Liquefied natural gas (LNG) decreased by 1.8 CNY to 4323.7 CNY, remaining stable - Gasoline (95 National VI) increased by 20.7 CNY to 8590.4 CNY, a rise of 0.2% - Diesel (0 National VI) decreased by 2.1 CNY to 7182.9 CNY, remaining stable [3]. 5. Coal - Anthracite (washed lump) decreased by 29.6 CNY to 835.8 CNY, a decline of 3.4% - Ordinary mixed coal (4500 kcal) increased by 16.7 CNY to 518.1 CNY, a rise of 3.3% - Coking coal (main coking coal) increased by 225.0 CNY to 1375.0 CNY, a rise of 19.6% [3]. 6. Non-metallic Building Materials - Ordinary Portland cement (P.O 42.5 bagged) decreased by 6.7 CNY to 355.7 CNY, a decline of 1.8% - Float glass (4.8/5mm) increased by 56.5 CNY to 1268.9 CNY, a rise of 4.7% [3]. 7. Agricultural Products - Rice (glutinous rice) decreased by 1.7 CNY to 4042.3 CNY, remaining stable - Wheat (national standard grade three) remained stable at 2422.9 CNY [4]. 8. Agricultural Production Materials - Urea (medium and small particles) decreased by 10.6 CNY to 1811.8 CNY, a decline of 0.6% - Compound fertilizer (sulfur potassium compound fertilizer) increased by 28.5 CNY to 3177.9 CNY, a rise of 0.9% [4]. 9. Forest Products - Natural rubber (standard rubber SCRWF) increased by 548.0 CNY to 14906.3 CNY, a rise of 3.8% - Pulp (imported needle pulp) increased by 32.4 CNY to 5869.0 CNY, a rise of 0.6% [4].

Core Points - The focus of the Zhengzhou Municipal Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision is on supervising and ensuring the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas, particularly in the areas of industrial development and policy implementation [2][3][4] - The integration of digital tools for supervision has enhanced the transparency and efficiency of monitoring rural collective assets, allowing for real-time feedback and issue reporting by the community [5][6] - The establishment of a joint supervision mechanism involving various departments aims to strengthen the oversight of rural revitalization funds and projects, addressing issues of mismanagement and corruption [10][12] Group 1: Supervision and Governance - The Zhengzhou Municipal Commission has prioritized the supervision of rural revitalization, focusing on key areas such as project management and fund allocation [3][4] - A digital platform has been implemented to enhance the transparency of rural financial management, allowing residents to access information and report issues easily [5][6] - The commission has adopted a collaborative approach, integrating supervision with party-led governance to address bureaucratic inefficiencies and improve service delivery [6][10] Group 2: Financial Oversight and Accountability - The commission has established a "discipline-inspection, audit, and inspection" linkage mechanism to oversee the allocation and use of rural revitalization funds, ensuring accountability [6][10] - In 2024, the commission reported handling 911 cases related to rural revitalization, resulting in 467 disciplinary actions and the exposure of 54 typical cases of misconduct [10][12] - The commission has identified and rectified issues related to the management of collective assets, recovering significant amounts of misallocated funds [10][12] Group 3: Industrial Development and Community Engagement - The commission emphasizes the importance of industrial revitalization as a key component of rural development, focusing on creating sustainable economic opportunities for local communities [12][14] - Initiatives have been launched to enhance agricultural productivity and support local enterprises, leading to increased income for farmers and community members [12][14] - The integration of technology and community involvement in agricultural practices has resulted in improved efficiency and profitability for local agricultural projects [12][14]

Core Insights - Pierre Andurand, a renowned oil trader, has faced significant losses in the cocoa market, with his flagship fund down 57% year-to-date as of June 30 [2][3][4] - Cocoa futures prices have dropped over 29% this year, with a notable decline of more than 3% on August 1, reaching $8,227 per ton [5][13] - Weak global demand, particularly in Europe where cocoa bean processing fell 7.2% year-on-year in Q2, is a primary factor for the price drop [4][13] Fund Performance - Andurand's fund, "Andurand Commodity Enhanced Fund," experienced a stark contrast in performance compared to 2024, when it achieved a 50% annual return due to successful cocoa price bets [4][5] - The fund suffered substantial losses in early 2025, with a drop of approximately 17% in January and nearly 25% in February [8] - Despite acknowledging the disappointing performance, Andurand remains optimistic about future cocoa prices, maintaining a bullish stance on the market [11] Market Dynamics - The decline in cocoa prices is attributed to concerns over demand, with significant reductions in processing volumes reported in both Europe and Asia [13][14] - The high cocoa prices from the previous year have started to suppress consumer demand, particularly in the chocolate market, amid ongoing global inflation pressures [13][14] - The global chocolate market is experiencing its most severe decline in a decade, with forecasts indicating a cocoa surplus in the upcoming years [14]