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2026年可转债年度策略:固收+为势,科技为王
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-12-16 04:33
Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the convertible bond market is expected to perform well in 2026, driven by strong equity market support and a tightening supply-demand structure [1][2][36] - The convertible bond market has shown a cumulative return of 17.35% in 2025, closely following the performance of the equity markets, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 17.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 24.29% [1][9] - The average return on convertible bond funds was 22.63%, which, while slightly lower than equity funds, exhibited lower volatility and better drawdown performance [1][18] Group 2 - The report identifies "pan-technology" as a strategic allocation theme for convertible bonds in the coming year, focusing on sectors such as AI, chips, and cloud security [3][36] - The supply of convertible bonds is expected to tighten further, with the total outstanding amount dropping below 600 billion, and a significant number of bonds set to mature in 2026 [2][39] - The average return on equity (ROE) for A-shares is projected to increase from 20.1% in 2024 to 27.9% in 2025, indicating a strong recovery in corporate profitability [2][36] Group 3 - The report highlights that the performance of the convertible bond market is closely linked to the equity market, with a notable correlation in trends and returns [1][21] - The average price of convertible bonds increased from 120.8 yuan at the beginning of the year to 144.3 yuan by November 21, 2025, reflecting a robust market environment [21][22] - The report suggests that the tightening supply of convertible bonds, combined with improving corporate earnings, will likely maintain high valuations in the convertible bond market [2][39]
国家统计局:1—11月份全国乘用车新能源车市场零售量保持了较快增长
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-15 03:05
人民财讯12月15日电,国家统计局新闻发言人、总经济师、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖在国新办新 闻发布会上表示,新型消费稳步成长,引领作用日益显现。即时零售、直播电商等消费新模式快速成 长,线上消费、新兴消费发展向好。1—11月份,实物商品网上零售额同比增长5.7%,增速快于社会消 费品零售总额1.7个百分点,占社会消费零售总额的比重达到25.9%。数字消费、绿色消费、健康消费日 益成为消费新热点,对消费的引领和支撑作用日益显现。1—11月份,全国乘用车新能源车市场零售量 保持了较快增长。 ...
行业比较周跟踪(20251206-20251212):A股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报-20251214
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-12-14 13:41
Valuation Summary - The overall valuation of A-shares as of December 12, 2025, shows the CSI All Share (excluding ST) with a PE of 21x and a PB of 1.8x, positioned at the 77th and 39th historical percentiles respectively [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE of 11.7x and a PB of 1.3x, at the 62nd and 40th historical percentiles [2] - The CSI 300 Index has a PE of 13.9x and a PB of 1.4x, at the 61st and 31st historical percentiles [2] - The ChiNext Index has a PE of 40.7x and a PB of 5.2x, at the 35th and 59th historical percentiles [2] - The STAR 50 Index has a PE of 152.3x and a PB of 6x, at the 96th and 63rd historical percentiles [2] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the 85th percentile include Real Estate, Retail, and IT Services [2] - Industries with PB valuations above the 85th percentile include Electronics (Semiconductors) and Communications [2] - The Medical Services industry has both PE and PB valuations below the 15th percentile [2] Industry Midstream Economic Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream prices remain stable, with polysilicon futures down 2.9% and spot prices unchanged [2] - Battery materials show mixed trends, with cobalt and nickel prices down 0.8% and 1.4% respectively, while lithium prices have increased significantly over the past quarter [2] - The demand for new energy vehicles has seen a year-on-year retail sales increase of 4.2%, although this is a slowdown compared to previous months [2] Real Estate Chain - The steel market has seen a decline in rebar prices by 1.3% and futures by 3.1%, with iron ore prices also down 0.9% [3] - Cement prices have increased slightly by 0.1%, while glass prices have decreased by 2.5% [3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs has increased by 2.5%, while wholesale pork prices have decreased by 1.0% [3] - The wholesale price index for liquor has shown a slight increase, but specific brands like Moutai have seen price drops [3] Cyclical Industries - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has influenced commodity prices, with gold and silver prices rising [3] - Brent crude oil prices have decreased by 4.1%, attributed to geopolitical developments [3] - Coal prices have also declined due to increased supply and inventory levels [3]
多晶硅收储平台落地,三星SDI签署百亿磷酸铁锂储能电池订单
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-12-14 06:31
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment sector [5] Core Insights - The establishment of a polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform is seen as a key measure to address the "involution" competition in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to enhance market efficiency through a dual-track model of "debt acquisition + flexible capacity utilization" [1][14] - The report highlights three main investment directions: 1) Opportunities for price increases in the supply chain under supply-side reforms, focusing on companies like Tongwei Co., Xiexin Technology, Longi Green Energy, and others; 2) Long-term growth opportunities driven by new technologies, with a focus on Maiwei Co., Aiko Solar, and others; 3) Industrialization opportunities from perovskite GW-level layouts, focusing on companies like Jinjing Technology and others [1][15] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Generation 1.1 Photovoltaics - The polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform has officially launched, aimed at resolving severe competition within the industry [1][14] - Longi Green Energy has announced an employee stock ownership plan, indicating expectations for industry recovery by 2026 [15] 1.2 Wind Power & Grid - The Zhejiang UHV AC ring network project has been approved, with a total investment of 29.3 billion yuan, marking it as the largest UHV AC project in China [2][17] - Goldwind Technology won the "China IDC Industry Green Solution Award," showcasing the integration of green power solutions in data centers [2][16] 1.3 Hydrogen & Energy Storage - A milestone was reached with the delivery of 500 hydrogen fuel trucks, marking significant progress in the hydrogen corridor construction in Northwest China [3][19] - The report suggests focusing on high-growth energy storage companies, with average bidding prices for energy storage systems ranging from 0.5397 to 0.5854 yuan/Wh [3][20][28] 2. New Energy Vehicles - Samsung SDI signed a nearly 10 billion yuan order for lithium iron phosphate energy storage batteries, indicating a shift in production lines to meet local demand in the U.S. [4][29] - The report recommends focusing on leading battery manufacturers such as CATL and others, as well as material and equipment manufacturers [30]
中国盈余破万亿,非洲用人民币买单,美国急了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-13 22:22
——外网炸锅了,新闻像晚风里面飞来的纸片,竟然写着中国盈余破万亿,非洲用人民币买单,美国急 了?这不是冷笑话,也不是炒作,这是数据,是贸易的账,是一个国家在世界分工里占到的份额,但更 重要的,是结算方式在变迁。 数据显示,今年一月至十一月,中国进出口贸易出现约1.08万亿美元的顺差,这个数字并不是抽象的数 学题,而是实打实的货物从中国装上船、装进集装箱、被运到世界各地的过程,换句话说,这是全球供 应链在打钟,说一句直白的——世界离不开中国货。 记住两件事,第一,中国不仅卖廉价的袜子和玩具,机电产品占比近六成,新能源车、光伏、电池在出 口结构里变得不可或缺,第二,结算货币正在分流,人民币不是"摆设",它在非洲、东南亚的贸易账单 里频频出现。 说人话对方缺美元不用慌,他们可以直接拿人民币付账,这事儿的神奇之处在于,它把美元短缺的问题 变成了人民币流通的机遇——货币互换、人民币贷款,这些工具不是魔术,但很管用。 有人会问,这是不是中国在"买"别人市场,是不是"输血"?不,这里关键的不是简单的支出,而是结算 体系的改变,中国通过贸易信贷和本币结算把商品卖出去,也把人民币留在流通中,形成一个闭环—— 进出口、融资、还款 ...
特朗普已盯上了稀土:要拉盟友建新链条,那中国这张牌还硬不硬?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-13 10:42
白宫看似合作,实则是防中国 之所以搞得这么高调,一个关键原因是稀土不是普通矿,它直接连着高端产业的命门。你以为AI是写 代码、跑算法,其实AI落到现实,最吃的是芯片、服务器、电机、散热、供电这些"硬家伙"。 而很多关键部件离不开稀土永磁材料,军工、航空、精密机床、新能源车同样如此。稀土一旦不稳,很 多产业不是"贵一点",而是"停下来"。 [太阳]这一段时间美国在关键矿产这条线上动作很密集,核心套路就一句话:把日本、韩国、澳大利亚 等伙伴拉到一起,先把"稀土到磁材再到高端制造"这条链子握在自己手里,这表面说是"供应链韧 性""去风险",但是说白了就是担心被卡住脖子。 美国这次的做法,也带着很强的政治表演属性:一方面对内要交代,告诉选民"我在做事、我很强硬", 另一方面对盟友要施压,让大家在资源端站队。 类似的"抱团框架"近年越来越多,比如美国牵头的矿产伙伴机制,以及与盟友围绕关键矿产与高科技供 应链安全的宣示和协调,都在把"市场问题"往"阵营问题"上推。 但这里面有个现实矛盾:美国想要的不是"多买几船矿",而是要把从开采到分离、再到磁材和终端制造 的整条链条搬走一大截。 这也解释了为什么他们会把稀土和AI捆在一 ...
美股异动 新能源车股走高 特斯拉(TSLA.US)一度涨超3%
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-12-12 15:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in the stock prices of various electric vehicle companies, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Group 2 - Tesla (TSLA.US) saw its stock rise over 2%, with an intraday increase exceeding 3% [1] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) experienced a stock increase of over 1% [1] - Li Auto (LI.US) reported a stock rise of over 2% [1] - NIO (NIO.US) had a stock increase of over 1.6% [1] - Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) showed a remarkable stock increase of over 16% [1]
新能源车股价走高 特斯拉(TSLA.US)一度涨超3%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-12 15:31
Core Viewpoint - The stock prices of electric vehicle companies have risen significantly, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Tesla (TSLA.US) saw an increase of over 2%, with a peak rise of more than 3% after market opening [1] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) rose by over 1% [1] - Li Auto (LI.US) experienced a gain of over 2% [1] - NIO (NIO.US) increased by over 1.6% [1] - Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) surged by over 16% [1]
美股异动 | 新能源车股走高 特斯拉(TSLA.US)一度涨超3%
智通财经网· 2025-12-12 15:20
Core Viewpoint - The news highlights a significant increase in the stock prices of various electric vehicle companies, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the sector [1] Company Performance - Tesla (TSLA.US) saw its stock rise over 2%, with an intraday increase exceeding 3% [1] - Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) experienced a stock increase of over 1% [1] - Li Auto (LI.US) reported a stock rise of over 2% [1] - NIO (NIO.US) had a stock increase of over 1.6% [1] - Rivian Automotive (RIVN.US) showed a remarkable stock increase of over 16% [1]
新能源车购置税免征政策进入倒计时,埃安联合京东推出兜底方案抢占年末市场
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-11 10:41
新能源汽车购置税免征政策自落地以来,持续发挥着撬动消费、推动新能源汽车产业规模化发展的重要 作用。而随着产业逐步走向成熟,政策退出机制也已明确,自2026年1月1日起,新能源车购置税全免政 策正式终止。与此同时,地方层面为促进汽车消费推出的购车补贴、置换补贴等配套政策,也已进入收 尾阶段。这意味着,今年12月将是享受政策红利最后的窗口期。 值此双12大促,埃安推出"限时免税5重兜底"福利,助力消费者抓住购车末班车。其中与京东、宁德时 代(300750)联合打造的埃安UT super受到市场关注。该车型以4.99万元的租电售价自交付以来,两周 时间交付量突破2000辆。 智能体验方面,埃安UT super作为华为云车机第一车,凭借 "算力、存储、更新全上云端" 的技术优 势,实现无限功能、无限算力、无限存储、无限更新的"四大无限"体验。车机支持2万+应用随心下载, 不仅能流畅运行10G以上的大型3A游戏,还能安装宝宝巴士、洪恩识字等亲子应用,更能智能规划出行 攻略;同级唯一的IBCM智能车控系统,实现"靠近解锁、踩刹即走、离车锁闭"的无感交互,彻底告别 找钥匙的繁琐。 而在出行安全上,埃安UT super以"国 ...