Core Viewpoint - As of January 28, China's wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel show a trend of "gasoline rising and diesel stable," with the average wholesale price of 92 gasoline at 7359 yuan per ton, an increase of 14 yuan per ton from the previous day, while the average wholesale price of diesel remains unchanged at 6091 yuan per ton [1]. Market Overview - On January 27, international crude oil futures prices surged, extending the positive range of the average price change for a basket of crude oils, which is favorable for market development [1]. - The overall market sentiment indicates "stable gasoline and weak diesel" demand, with operators primarily adopting a cautious approach to inventory management, resulting in a less than ideal purchasing atmosphere [1]. Regional Price Changes - Gasoline wholesale prices increased in regions including Gansu, Fujian, Beijing, Chongqing, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Jilin, and Guangdong, while prices decreased in Hainan [1]. - Diesel wholesale prices rose in regions such as Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Anhui, Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, but fell in Gansu, Jiangxi, Hainan, Shanxi, and Guangxi [1]. - In Shandong, both gasoline and diesel prices saw significant increases [1]. Data Source - The wholesale price data for gasoline and diesel is published by the China Economic Information Agency and the China Petroleum Economic and Technical Research Institute's "Energy Big Data Laboratory," in collaboration with the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange Center, reflecting the overall situation of China's gasoline and diesel wholesale market [1].

市场要闻与重要数据 1、 WTI原油涨1.5%，报63.481美元。布伦特原油涨1.38%，报67.58美元。（来源：Bloomberg） 原油日报 | 2026-01-29 美国打击伊朗风险仍在增加 下行风险：俄乌和谈达成协议，宏观黑天鹅事件 上行风险：制裁油（俄罗斯、伊朗、委内瑞拉）供应收紧、中东冲突导致大规模断供 2、 1月28日，美国国务卿鲁比奥称，特朗普政府准备动用武力，确保委内瑞拉代总统德尔西·罗德里格斯在最大程 度上与美国合作。鲁比奥表示，罗德里格斯承诺向美国公司开放委内瑞拉的能源部门，提供生产优惠准入，并将 石油销售所得用于购买美国商品。鲁比奥在参议院外交关系委员会的声明中表示："如果其他方法无效，我们准备 动用武力以确保委内瑞拉最大限度的合作。我们希望这种情况不会发生，但我们绝不会回避我们对美国人民的责 任以及我们在这个半球的使命。"（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 1月28日，非洲今年正吸引大型石油巨头前来投资，各企业计划在该地区钻探的高影响力勘探井数量预计将达 到其他任何地区的两倍以上，以寻求未来储备资源。根据数据，非洲以12口超深水钻井（预计深度达1500米及以 上）位居全球之首，此 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-29 美伊关系⾛向仍有不确定，原油及化⼯ 延续震荡整理 美伊关系可能面临重大变化，原油价格近期将维持较高波动率。彭博 报道，1月28日美国总统特朗普警告伊朗，与美国达成协议的时间已经所 剩不多，并表示一支进入该地区的美国军舰编队已准备好"以速度和迅猛 之势"完成任务；特朗普表示，伊朗回到谈判桌前，就一项"公平公正的 协议——不能有核武器"展开谈判。伊朗日产原油330万桶，所在区域也 是诸多产油国云集，美伊和谈或是决裂将成为原油市场短期走势的关键。 原油短期供给端也受到了一些天气端的扰动，主要在北美区域。投资者以 震荡思路对待油价。（上述信息均来自彭博终端。） 板块逻辑： 化工产业链整体延续震荡格局。当前化工产业链尚不能说空头力量云 集的一个重要原因是，下游也出现了价格的同步抬升，这种涨幅可能不及 盘面的原料，但也能勉强跟随，这表现在聚酯、苯乙烯和聚烯烃的下游。 化工中格局偏弱的是甲醇，当前占据甲醇需求50%的MTO装置开工位于五年 最低，甲醇港口库存位于五年最高，而冬季即将过去，伊朗停车的装置也 将在2-3月间重启 ...

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is expected to set the March price for its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers at a discount for the first time since December 2020 amid ample su... ...

昨日沪指、深成指冲高回落，创业板指高开低走，盘中一度跌超1%。沪深两市成交额2.97万亿，较上 一个交易日放量704亿。盘面上，全市场超3600只个股下跌。从板块来看，资源股全天领涨，贵金属、 油气、电解铝方向轮番爆发，中国黄金4连板，湖南黄金3连板，中曼石油、晓程科技3天2板，四川黄金 10天6板，招金黄金8天5板，石化油服、准油股份涨停，中国铝业涨停创16年新高。分散染料概念集体 走高，浙江龙盛、闰土股份、亚邦股份涨停。存储芯片概念表现活跃，中微半导触及20CM涨停，气派 科技20CM涨停。下跌方面，医药医疗、光伏等板块跌幅居前。其中医药医疗概念走弱，百普赛斯、必 贝特跌超10%。截至收盘，沪指涨0.27%，深成指涨0.09%，创业板指跌0.57%。 历史上春季行情平均持续天数约70天，期间上证指数涨幅中位数约13.7%，本轮春季行情从2025年12月 17日开始，目前仅一个月，考虑到今年春节时间较晚叠加当前慢牛的环境，春季行情有望持续更长时 间。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期阶段和赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关 注：电子(半导体)、传媒(广告营销、游戏、影视)、机械(自动化设备、工程 ...

相关机构表示，北半球虽处传统需求淡季，但中国原油进口量同环比大增，美国炼厂开工率维持高位， 成品油开启补库，全球石油需求预期被上修，显示需求韧性。 需求端呈现出"东方引领，西方稳健"的格局。国际能源署（IEA）基于宏观经济前景改善，上调了 2025/2026年全球石油需求增量预测。需求增长主要由非OECD国家贡献，其中中国的表现尤为关键。 2025年12月，中国原油进口量同比大幅增长17.4%，环比增长10.0%，反映了新一批进口配额下发后补 库需求的释放。国内汽柴油社会库存亦处于补库阶段。 在西方，美国炼厂开工率在集中检修后已提升至近四年高位，成品油库存开始累积，表明下游消费依然 稳健。尽管欧洲需求相对疲软，但全球需求引擎正由新兴市场驱动。同时，美联储步入降息周期，有望 从金融层面提振对原油等大宗商品的需求预期，尤其是对利率敏感的亚非拉地区成品油消费。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要涵盖石油、天然气开采及相关服务 领域，选取相关上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气产业链上下游企业的整体表现。该指数成分股 具有较强的周期性特征，侧重于对能源行业的配置。 风险提示：提 ...

Group 1 - The situation in Venezuela has changed significantly following a large-scale military action by the U.S., which has taken control of President Maduro and his wife, aiming to manage Venezuela and promote investment from U.S. oil companies [1] - Venezuela, a major producer of heavy crude oil, is expected to have its oil production released, which will negatively impact global oil prices amid an oversupply in the market [1][12] - The U.S. has completed its first sale of Venezuelan oil worth $500 million and plans to expand sales, indicating a restructuring of the global heavy crude oil market [1] Group 2 - The U.S. imports heavy crude oil primarily from Canada and Mexico, with projections for 2025 showing imports of 380,000 barrels per day from Mexico, 330,000 barrels per day from Canada, and 140,000 barrels per day from Venezuela [3] - Following the U.S. military action, Venezuela is expected to transfer between 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., which will increase the availability of Venezuelan heavy crude in the U.S. market [3] - The PADD3 region in the U.S. has complex refining capabilities that can process large amounts of Venezuelan heavy crude, leading to a decrease in refining costs [3][5] Group 3 - The situation in Venezuela will have structural impacts on China's heavy crude oil imports, as Venezuela is the second-largest supplier to China [5] - If Venezuelan oil begins to be sold globally, China will face competition for supplies from countries like the U.S. and India, potentially leading to a shift in import sources [5] - The expansion of Canada's TMX pipeline is expected to increase heavy crude oil exports to Asia, providing an alternative supply source for China [7][8] Group 4 - Canada is looking to diversify its crude oil exports, which could reduce geopolitical risks in the global oil supply chain, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Venezuelan oil exports [7] - By increasing imports from Canada, China can reduce its reliance on traditional suppliers in the Middle East, optimizing its energy import structure [7] - In 2025, Canada is projected to export 360,000 barrels per day of crude oil to China, accounting for 60% of its total exports [8] Group 5 - Venezuela's oil production is expected to rise to over 1 million barrels per day by the end of 2026 and nearly 2 million barrels per day by 2028, but significant investment will be required to reach higher production levels [9] - The U.S. government's indefinite control over Venezuelan oil sales could lead to a substantial increase in Venezuela's market share in the global oil supply [12]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical sector is experiencing slight adjustments, with the CSI Petrochemical Industry Index declining approximately 0.65% in early trading on January 29. The sector shows mixed performance among constituent stocks, with notable gains from companies like Sankeshu and Rongsheng Petrochemical, while companies like Hebang Bio and Xingfa Group are underperforming [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The largest petrochemical ETF (159731) has seen continuous net inflows over the past 16 days, totaling 838 million yuan, reaching a new high in size at 1.166 billion yuan with a total of 1.106 billion shares [1]. - The CSI Petrochemical Industry Index is primarily composed of the basic chemical and petroleum sectors, which together account for over 91% of the index's weight [1]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Guolian Minsheng Securities recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable performance and high dividends, specifically China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical [1]. - The oil price is expected to have a bottom, leading to high earnings certainty for oil companies, with a recommendation to pay attention to China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which has low barrel oil costs and continuous production growth [1]. - The domestic encouragement for oil and gas reserve increases suggests monitoring companies in the growth phase of production, such as New Natural Gas and Man Oil [1].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The global metal market is characterized by weak interest rate cuts, weak recovery, and weak recession, leading to prolonged cycle transmission times. Gold and industrial metals are in the early stages of a rebound, with potential for further growth as interest rate cuts lead to industrial recovery [1][3]. - The global manufacturing PMI data shows slight stabilization, with China and the US still at the bottom. Aluminum has become a significant representative of China's manufacturing sector, benefiting from low-cost advantages and a complete industrial chain [1][5]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Aluminum Market Dynamics**: - China consumes approximately 450 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, accounting for 6%-7% of national electricity usage. The country has successfully captured upstream ore profits through capacity constraints and earns profits from aluminum exports [1][6]. - The US may shift focus from copper to aluminum inventory replenishment due to significant demand in manufacturing and AI applications [1][6]. - **Profit Recovery and Dividend Increases**: - Industries such as coal, oil, and aluminum have entered a phase of profit and debt recovery, leading to substantial dividend increases. The average dividend payout ratio in the power sector has risen to 50%, indicating a transition to a dividend era for China's manufacturing sector [1][8]. - **Chemical Industry Transformation**: - The chemical industry is expected to undergo significant changes on the supply side, leading to a revaluation of overall industry valuations. China remains the largest producer and supplier of chemical products globally, with a competitive edge as long as domestic capacity is constrained [1][12][13]. Potential Investment Opportunities - **Aluminum Sector**: - Recommended companies include integrated firms like Tianshan, Hongchuang, Nanshan, and others. Non-integrated companies with higher elasticity such as Shuanghuo, Yun Aluminum, and Huadong are also worth considering [1][11]. - **Chemical Sector**: - The chemical sector currently shows no significant bubbles, with valuations below 10 times earnings, indicating good investment potential. Key companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical, Longbai Group, and others [1][16]. Future Trends and Projections - **Aluminum Price Outlook**: - Future aluminum prices may recover to levels above 30,000 yuan, with historical peaks during energy crises providing a benchmark. Seasonal inventory replenishment may also drive price increases [1][7]. - **Aviation Sector Forecast**: - The aviation sector is expected to experience significant price increases by 2026 due to supply constraints and changing demand structures. The pandemic has altered the supply dynamics, with a projected decline in actual supply from 2026 to 2028 [1][19][21]. - **Demand Shifts in Aviation**: - Post-pandemic, domestic tourism demand is expected to grow at 3%-4% annually, while foreign entry demand is projected to increase significantly. This shift may lead to a sustained price increase cycle in the aviation industry [1][22][23]. Additional Important Insights - The chemical industry is cyclical, with demand linked to GDP growth. However, supply-side changes may lead to significant revaluation opportunities [1][12][15]. - The oil and petrochemical sectors are at the beginning of a global economic cycle, with supply constraints driving up prices for by-products [1][4][17]. - The overall investment landscape is shifting towards resource-based products, with potential for significant returns as manufacturing transitions to resource-oriented models [1][9][10].

对话石化：海外气价暴涨始末及对煤价影响 20260128 摘要 近期美国天然气价格上涨主要受寒潮和空头回补影响，但换月结束后波 动减小，预计寒冷天气持续至 2 月初，价格仍有波动但幅度有限，需关 注寒潮强度和持续时间。 全球天然气市场区域割裂，定价差异大。美国天然气涨价传导至国内需 时，若涨价持续时间不长，则难以传导。寒潮影响短暂，天气转暖后需 求减少，对国内影响有限。 天然气具季节性，一、四季度为旺季，二、三季度回落。除非出现全球 供需失衡，否则海外涨价难迅速传导至国内。2026 年起全球天然气供 给将宽松，压制整体气价。 预计 2026 年全球天然气供需宽松于 2025 年，全年平均价格预计在 10 美元/百万英热单位左右，低于 2025 年的 12 美元。原油中枢维持在 60~65 美元/桶，地缘政治溢价约为 3~5 美元。 当前金、银、铜价上涨驱动因素已从传统基建转向 AI 等新兴生产力，对 石油需求拉动减弱。石油需求增速弹性降低，油价未必如金、铜般大幅 上涨。 Q&A 最近美国天然气价格暴涨的主要原因是什么？后续涨价的高度和持续时间如何 判断？ 美国天然气价格最近暴涨主要是由于两个因素叠加。首先，1 ...