农产品早报 2025-04-15 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 MYSTEEL 报告显示上周国内豆油、豆粕大幅去库，同比库存偏低，不过大豆到港回升到 180 万吨/周， 港口大豆累库 100 万吨，本周开机恢复后豆粕、豆油将进入累库，周末豆粕现货提价 200 元/吨今日盘面 反应一般，主要是后续有累库预期。今日豆粕成交较好，开机率 31.76%，提货较弱。 杨泽元 由于对美大豆的高额关税导致我国大豆进口仅依赖巴西，巴西大豆升贴水后期有走强动力，近期下跌空 间也不会太大，而美豆目前低于其种植成本较多，适逢其种植季节种植面积及天气都有交易空间，在宏 观环境没有明显走弱的前提下，我国大豆到港成本具有稳中偏涨的趋势。但若贸易战引发宏观进一步走 弱，美豆种植成本、巴 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the粕类 and corn sectors is neutral [1][3] 2) Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the USDA's April supply - demand report didn't significantly adjust South American data. Brazil's soybean harvest is bountiful, and the large quantity of arrivals starting from April will bring supply pressure to China. However, the report raised the US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US domestic soybean oil consumption, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean prices. The impact of tariff policies on prices is significant, and future impacts need continuous attention to macro - policies. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian soybean premium remains firm, the overall arrival volume in the next few months is large, and short - term downstream supply isn't tight. Policy changes and domestic soybean arrivals should be closely watched [2] - For the corn market, in China, farmers have mostly sold their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, the inventories at North and South ports are high, the procurement of feed enterprises in the sales areas is average, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. The impact of international trade policy changes should be closely monitored, and corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations [5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类 - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3104 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract was 2721 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton or 1.15% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3660 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3310 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3210 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazilian farmers have sold over half of the 2024/25 soybean output, at least 86 million tons. The premium of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly last weekend. On April 14, the CNF premium for imported Brazilian soybeans from May - July was 158 - 182 cents/bu, with a fluctuation of - 5 - 6 cents/bu from the previous day [1] - **Market Analysis** - The USDA report didn't adjust South American data much. Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and the large - scale arrival will bring supply pressure. The report raised US domestic soybean crushing demand, which is positive for US soybean oil consumption, and CBOT soybean prices rebounded. Tariff policies change rapidly and have a great impact on prices. In China, it's the arrival window for Brazilian soybeans. Although the premium is firm, the future arrival volume is large, and short - term supply isn't tight [2] Corn - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2267 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.13%; the corn starch 2505 contract was 2661 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.08% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: The corn harvest in Argentina accelerated slightly last week, advancing 2.8%. As of April 8, the harvest progress was 23.1%, and the harvested output was 13.6 million tons. The USDA predicted Argentina's 2024/25 corn output to be 50 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and last year. Ukraine raised the minimum export prices of wheat and corn in April [3][4] - **Market Analysis** - In China, farmers have sold most of their remaining grain, and the supply subject has shifted to traders. The sales rhythm of traders is stable. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining, port inventories are high, and port de - stocking is slow. The upcoming wheat harvest in North China will limit the upward space of corn prices. Corn prices are expected to be stable with range - bound fluctuations, and international trade policy changes should be closely monitored [5]

2025年04月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观减弱，震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：关税情绪反复，现实驱动偏少 | 2 | | 豆粕：美元走弱、美豆偏强，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：关税事件，盘面偏强、收复前期跌幅 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡下行 | 7 | | 棉花：需求或继续限制棉价反弹动能 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：逐步回归产业逻辑 | 11 | | 花生：关注反套机会 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 4 月 14 日 棕榈油：宏观减弱，震荡反弹 豆油：关税情绪反复，现实驱动偏少 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu028807@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,748 | 涨跌幅 -0.07% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,760 | 涨跌幅 0.14% | | -- ...

市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：到港大豆逐渐丰裕，市场预期 5-7 月大豆到港超千万吨。终端养殖 需求一般，叠加下游饲料企业高库存高头寸，主要以滚动补库为主。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。 参考观点：多重因素共振，豆粕短线或区间震荡。 1、现货市场：张家港东海粮油一级豆油 8290 元/吨，较上一交易日涨 60 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3120 元/吨（-20）、天津 3330 元/吨（-10）、 日照 3280 元/吨（-20）、东莞 298 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Oils: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [1] - Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including price trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It suggests that the prices of most agricultural products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and seasonal patterns, and provides corresponding investment outlooks and strategies [1][2]. Summary by Related Sections Research Views - **Corn**: This week, the May contract of corn reduced its positions and adjusted. Affected by the spot market, the May and July contracts declined in tandem, and the basis returned. The long and short main forces of the May contract continued to shift to the July contract, which became the main contract. The spot market saw an increase in the import cost of corn due to tariff hikes. Although the futures market did not continue to rise recently, the prices in the production areas were relatively firm, and some deep - processing enterprises raised the purchase price of corn. The price of corn in North China remained generally stable, with slight adjustments in individual areas. The arrival volume of corn in Shandong's deep - processing enterprises increased, and the price remained stable. The prices of some deep - processing enterprises in Hebei and Henan increased slightly by 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The price of corn in the sales areas was generally stable, with a 20 - yuan/ton decrease in Qinzhou Port. Technically, the 2300 - yuan/ton integer mark of the July contract was a recent intensive trading area. It is expected that the tariff increase, the strengthening of the agricultural product sentiment, and the firm spot price will provide phased support for the futures price, and the July contract will maintain an oscillating performance in the short term [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans closed higher due to the bullish USDA monthly report. The April supply - demand report showed that the US soybean production and exports in the 24/25 season remained unchanged, but the ending inventory was estimated to be 375 million bushels, lower than the March estimate of 380 million bushels. Globally, the soybean production in Brazil and Argentina remained unchanged, and the global soybean production was adjusted down by 1.8 million tons to 420.58 million tons, while the ending inventory was adjusted up by 60,000 tons to 122.47 million tons. The net weekly export sales of US soybeans increased by 172,300 tons, lower than expected. In the domestic market, the protein meal declined, and most commodities rose. As the impact of tariffs on the market decreased, the increase in the price of US soybeans and the higher import cost supported the market. The trading strategy is to think of the soybean meal as oscillating with a bullish bias [1]. - **Oils**: On Thursday, BMD palm oil rose, following the upward trend of the surrounding markets. The MPOB monthly report was bearish, showing that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in March increased to 1.56 million tons due to the increase in production and a significant increase in imports, offsetting the impact of increased demand. In the USDA monthly report, due to the decline in production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, the palm oil production was expected to decrease by 1.3 million tons to 78.2 million tons. Canadian canola closed slightly higher due to the optimistic demand outlook. Tight inventory and continuous demand encouraged farmers' sales levels. The price of about 650 Canadian dollars per ton also encouraged farmers to continue planting rapeseed crops. The April supply - demand report predicted that the global rapeseed production in the 24/25 season would be 85.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.616 million tons, and the ending inventory would be 9.018 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.433 million tons. In the domestic market, the futures price of oils rose, and the market's reaction to the tariff impact was dull. With the overnight reports being mixed and the macro - economic outlook improving, the oils are expected to stop falling. The operation strategy is to participate in short - term long positions [1]. - **Eggs**: On Thursday, the egg futures adjusted under the influence of surrounding commodities. The 2025 contract weakened after opening and rebounded at a low level in the afternoon, finally closing down 0.42% at 3117 yuan/500 kg; the 2509 contract closed down 0.46%. According to the Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.24 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin increase from the previous day. In the production areas, the price of pink - shell eggs in Tianjin remained flat at 3.15 yuan/jin, and the price of brown - shell eggs in Heishan market increased by 0.1 yuan/jin to 3 yuan/jin. In the sales areas, the price of brown - shell eggs in Puxi and Guangzhou remained flat at 3.45 yuan/jin and 3.48 yuan/jin respectively. The arrival volume in the sales areas increased compared with the previous day, the terminal consumption was normal, and traders purchased according to demand. The egg prices in the sales areas were stable with some increases and individual decreases. Based on the current situation of the egg - laying chicken breeding market, it is relatively certain that the egg supply will increase in the future. On the other hand, seasonal demand is beneficial to egg prices. In the medium and long term, there is a high probability of a weak rebound in egg prices. In the short term, the futures price is greatly affected by the feed end. It is advisable to wait and see for now and look for future operation opportunities after the surrounding commodities stabilize [1][2]. - **Pigs**: This week, the futures price of pigs closed with a small positive line, and the price range steadily increased. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the United States had a positive impact on the agricultural product sector. The prices of feed raw materials such as corn increased, providing support for pig prices. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the national pig price increased slightly and steadily. In the Henan pig market, the average slaughter price was 14.67 yuan/kg. The mainstream slaughter prices of large - scale farms' 115 - 130 - kg improved pigs were 14.70 - 14.90 yuan/kg; the mainstream slaughter prices of medium - and small - scale farms' 115 - 130 - kg improved pigs were about 14.40 yuan/kg, with a high price of 14.60 yuan/kg; the slaughter price of 150 - 155 - kg large pigs was 14.60 yuan/kg. In the downstream slaughter market, the mainstream purchase price of medium - and small - scale farms' improved standard pigs by slaughter enterprises was about 14.40 yuan/kg, with an average weight of 115 - 125 kg. In the futures market, the short - term pig price is boosted by the increase in raw material prices, while the medium - term supply pressure continues to influence the market. In April, the game between the macro - economic situation and the fundamentals continues, and it is recommended to participate in short - term trading [2]. Market Information - It is expected that the global vegetable oil production in the 2024/25 season will be reduced by 900,000 tons to 228.1 million tons, as the increase in soybean oil production is offset by the decline in palm oil production. The palm oil production is expected to decrease by 1.3 million tons to 78.2 million tons due to the decline in production in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand [3]. - The USDA maintained the expected corn production in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season at 50 million tons, and the market expected 49.3 million tons; it maintained the expected corn production in Brazil at 126 million tons, and the market expected 125.91 million tons. It also maintained the expected soybean production in Argentina at 49 million tons, and the market expected 48.79 million tons; it maintained the expected soybean production in Brazil at 169 million tons, and the market expected 169.11 million tons [3]. - The USDA April supply - demand report on US soybeans showed that the expected planting area, harvested area, yield per acre, production, and export volume in the 2024/2025 season remained unchanged compared with March. The total supply increased by 5 million bushels to 4734 million bushels, the crushing volume increased by 10 million bushels to 2420 million bushels, the total consumption increased by 10 million bushels to 4359 million bushels, and the ending inventory decreased by 5 million bushels to 375 million bushels [3]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][7][8][11]. - **Contract Basis**: The report provides charts of the basis of various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][17][18][22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term peanut price is relatively weak due to slightly higher production in 2024 than in 2023, weak downstream demand, and ample supply. The 05 peanut has limited upside potential, and the 10 peanut has more uncertainties as it trades on new crops. Currently, the peanut price is around 4.05 yuan per catty, and the peanut oil spot price is stable while peanut meal has been strong recently, with oil mills having theoretical profit in pressing [10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Data - **Futures Disk**: PK504 closed at 8200, up 10 (0.12%), with a trading volume of 63 (-70.28%) and an open interest of 573 (-16.35%); PK510 closed at 8170, up 78 (0.95%), with a trading volume of 14,147 (10.85%) and an open interest of 32,940 (1.49%); PK601 closed at 8162, up 76 (0.93%), with a trading volume of 279 (-43.18%) and an open interest of 1,611 (8.34%) [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 8300, 8200, and 8200 respectively, unchanged. The basis for Henan Nanyang was 100, and 0 for Shandong Jining and Linyi. Import prices for Sudanese peanuts were 7800 and Senegalese peanuts were 7500, both unchanged. The price of Rizhao peanut meal was 3200, and Rizhao soybean meal was 3300. The price of peanut oil was 14500, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil was 7940, up 100 [3]. - **Spreads**: PK01 - PK04 spread was - 38, up 66; PK04 - PK10 spread was 30, down 68; PK10 - PK01 spread was 8, up 2 [3]. Second Part: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. In Northeast China, Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts were 4.1 yuan per catty, and Liaoning Changtu was 4.1 yuan per catty. In Henan, Baisha common peanuts were 4.05 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and Shandong Junan was 3.95 yuan per catty. Imported Sudanese refined peanuts were 8000 yuan per ton. Peanut oil mill purchase prices were stable, with mainstream transaction prices at 7400 - 7700 yuan per ton and the theoretical break - even price at 7850 yuan per ton. Peanut oil prices were stable, with domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan per ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan per ton. Rizhao soybean meal spot price dropped to 3280 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan per ton, and 48 - protein peanut meal was quoted at 3200 yuan per ton [5][8]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Single - sided**: The upside potential of the 05 peanut is limited [11]. - **Calendar Spread**: Short the 5 - 10 peanut spread on rallies for band trading [12]. - **Options**: Sell the pk510 - p - 7800 option [13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Illustrations - The content provides multiple charts including Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill pressing profits, peanut oil prices, peanut spot - futures basis, and various peanut contract spreads, with data from 2021 - 2025 [17][19][23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - The continuous escalation of the Sino-US trade war and the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy have led to increased market volatility, affecting the prices of cotton, sugar, and pulp [2][8] - The global cotton market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with the expected reduction in US cotton planting area in the new season and high domestic industrial and commercial inventories. The downstream demand has improved in March but is expected to weaken after April [2] - The 24/25 sugar production season in the Northern Hemisphere is basically over. The market focus is on the progress of the 25/26 sugar cane crushing season in Brazil and the weather in the producing areas. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term and follow the trend of raw sugar in the medium term [6][7] - The pulp price has been under pressure due to the impact of the tariff policy on the global trade environment, high global shipments, high domestic port inventories, and weak downstream demand [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2505 contract yesterday was 12,585 yuan/ton, a change of -250 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.95%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,283 yuan/ton, a change of -42 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was CF05 + 1698, a change of +208 from the previous day. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 14,464 yuan/ton, a change of -130 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was CF05 + 1879, a change of +120 from the previous day [1] - In March, Brazil's cotton export volume was 239,000 tons, a decrease of 13.0% from the previous month (275,000 tons) and a decrease of 5.4% from the same period last year (253,000 tons). Turkey and Vietnam were the main export destinations, each accounting for 21% of the total export volume. Pakistan ranked third with a share of 20%, and there were also exports to Bangladesh (15%) [1] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and declined. The continuous escalation of the trade war and the high tariffs will have an obvious impact on China's textile and clothing exports, and the cotton price has hit new lows after the festival. Globally, the 24/25 cotton market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the expectation of reduced planting in the new season of US cotton has increased. Domestically, the current industrial and commercial inventories of cotton are still at a high level, and the expected planting area in the new season is expected to increase steadily. The downstream performance in March improved compared with the previous month but was still weak compared with the peak season. After April, the demand is expected to weaken [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The Sino-US trade war continues to escalate, and the macro risks caused by tariffs have not ended. The cotton price volatility has increased, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2505 contract yesterday was 6,006 yuan/ton, a change of -42 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.69%. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,130 yuan/ton, a change of -20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SR05 + 124, a change of +22 from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,930 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SR05 - 76, a change of -8 from the previous day [4] - As of April 7, 197 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, had completed the sugar cane crushing process in the 2024/25 season, an increase of 10 compared with the same period last season. A total of 85.13 million tons of sugar cane were crushed, a decrease of 21.831 million tons or 20.41% compared with the same period last year. The sugar production was 8.064 million tons, a decrease of 2.894 million tons or 26.4% compared with the same period last year, and the sugar production rate was 9.47%, a decrease of 0.77% compared with the same period last year [5] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price weakened and consolidated. In the raw sugar market, the production in the Northern Hemisphere in the 24/25 season is basically over, and the news of the sugar production reduction in India has been basically reflected in the futures price. The market focus is on the progress of the 25/26 sugar cane crushing season in Brazil and the weather in the producing areas. In the short term, the raw sugar inventory is at a low level, and the support below the raw sugar 05 contract is strong. In the medium term, the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil still exists, and the sugar price may still be under pressure. Domestically, the sugar production in this season continues to increase, but the short-term import of sugar is very limited. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the import of sugar is supplemented, and the medium-term trend is expected to follow the raw sugar [6][7] Strategy - Neutral. The general direction of the Zhengzhou sugar futures price follows the raw sugar, and attention should be paid to the weather and policy changes in Brazil [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2505 contract yesterday was 5,202 yuan/ton, a change of -240 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 4.41%. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,420 yuan/ton, a change of -30 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SP05 + 978, a change of -112 from the previous day. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was SP05 + 108, a change of -132 from the previous day [7] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp continued to decline. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the paper mills' enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials was not high. The spot prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hebei, Henan, and Northeast China decreased by 10 - 100 yuan/ton, and some wood pulp traders in local areas suspended trading and waited and watched. The trading atmosphere in the imported hardwood pulp spot market was dull, and the spot prices of some grades in Northeast China, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang decreased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of the imported chemimechanical pulp spot market changed little, and the spot price remained stable. The demand for the imported natural color pulp spot market was poor, and the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8] Market Analysis - Yesterday, the pulp futures price dropped sharply and hit a new low. The "reciprocal tariff" policy has a negative impact on the global trade environment and the economic recovery and commodity prices. The short-term demand recovery in the European and American markets still faces pressure, which is negative for the pulp price. On the supply side, the US dollar quotation in the international market continues to rise, and the cost support is still strong. However, the global shipments are still at a high level, and the domestic pulp import volume increased significantly from January to February, and the arrival volume in March is also expected to be high. The domestic port inventory has remained at a relatively high level after the Spring Festival, which has continuously suppressed the market price. On the demand side, the demand in Europe has not improved significantly, and the wood pulp port inventory in Europe is still at a historical high. The peak season in the domestic downstream is not strong, and the paper mills' procurement is still mainly based on rigid demand. With the continuous decline of the pulp price, the paper mills' profits have improved slightly, but the terminal demand expectation is not optimistic, and the downstream's willingness to accept goods has not improved. After May, the industry will enter the traditional off-season, and the demand may continue to weaken [8] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, the trade war continues to intensify, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the industrial chain lacks positive drivers. It is expected to fluctuate under pressure in the short term [8]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 农产品日报（2025 年 4 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周三，玉米 | 玉米 | 5 月合约减仓调整，受现货拖累 5 月和 7 月合约联动下行，基差回归。 | 震荡偏强 | | 玉米 | | 5 月合约多空主力继续向 7 月合约移仓，7 月成为主力合约。现货市场方面， | | | 关税上调玉米进口成本提升。虽然近期期货市场未继续上涨，但从产区报价来看 | | | | | 相对坚挺，部分深加工也开始上调玉米收购价。继续关注关税消息对盘面的影响， | | | | | 虽然加征关税的实质性影响可控，但或支撑市场心态。华北地区玉米价格整体维 | | | | | 持稳定，个别地区价格窄幅调整，部分企业补涨，但变化幅度有限。山东深加工 | | | | | 玉米到货量增加，基本满足生产需求，价格维持稳定。河北、河南部分深加工价 | | | | | 格窄幅上调 | | 10-30 元/吨。销区市场玉米价格整体稳定为主，钦州港下调 20 元/ | | | ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term outlook for the soybean oil 2509 contract is likely to be in consolidation [1]. - The short - term outlook for the soybean meal is likely to be in a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to large emotional fluctuations [2]. - The short - term corn futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3][4]. - After a sharp decline, copper prices need a rest, and tactical defense should be considered [5]. - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may be in a weak and volatile trend, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [6][7]. - The steel market is pessimistic, and steel prices are likely to oscillate at a low level [8]. - The coking coal and coke are likely to have a weak and volatile rebound at a low level, with limited upside space [9]. - The iron ore 2505 contract is likely to be in a short - term oscillation, and traders are advised to be cautious [10]. - For the WTI crude oil, attention should be paid to the support level of the INE crude oil main contract around 430 - 450 yuan/barrel after the sharp decline [11]. - The rubber market is likely to be in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating conditions of Shanghai rubber [13]. - The PVC futures price is likely to oscillate at a low level due to weak macro - sentiment [14][15]. - The soda ash futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the short term [16]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy impacts the futures market. Currently, it is the U.S. soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and export season. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil are expected to be neutral, and the inventory is likely to be in consolidation [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,100 yuan/ton (- 30), Tianjin 3,270 yuan/ton (- 20), Rizhao 3,200 yuan/ton (- 20), and Dongguan 3,010 yuan/ton (- 10) [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Sino - U.S. tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly complete. U.S. soybean exports are pessimistically expected. Domestic soybean meal supply may be tight in the short - term but will turn loose later. Terminal demand is average, and oil - mill inventories are neutral. Short - term sentiment is strong due to tariff events [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,088 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, 2,293 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai, and 2,140 - 2,160 yuan/ton in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The U.S. corn planting area in 2025 is expected to reach a 12 - year high. The domestic supply pressure is reduced, and the demand from the pig - breeding industry is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors, and the price is mainly determined by domestic supply and demand [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 73,820 - 75,400 yuan, down 4,540 yuan, with a premium of 100 - 200 yuan. The imported copper ore index is - 26.4, down 2.26 [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Global "irrational" tariffs cause overseas capital market fluctuations. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. The copper market is in a state of stage resonance, with intensified games between reality and expectations [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 71,900 yuan/ton (- 1,500), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 70,500 yuan/ton (- 1,200) [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is increasing, the demand improvement is insufficient, and the inventory is accumulating. The price has fallen, and attention should be paid to the 70,000 - yuan integer support [6]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel - mill inventory is 2.0712 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, the cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and the market presents a pattern of strong supply and demand. The short - term price is affected by macro - policy expectations [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton. The port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 3.4756 million tons and 2.1713 million tons respectively [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, the inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 98.85, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 770 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 769 yuan [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and there are concerns about the contraction of long - process steelmaking demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar index provides some support [10]. Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: After the US announced "reciprocal tariffs", the global capital market tumbled, and OPEC+ decided to increase production in May. The US PMI data contracted, and the demand is worried. The crude oil has entered a technical bear market [11]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of rubber, such as domestic whole - latex, Thai smoked sheets, and Vietnamese 3L standard rubber, are provided [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The US "reciprocal tariffs" impact China's tire and automobile exports. The global rubber supply and demand are both loose, and the demand may be severely suppressed [13]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,800 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The production enterprise operating rate is increasing, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is decreasing. The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to macro - tariff factors [14]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,464.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The production is increasing, the inventory is accumulating at the factory and decreasing in the society, the demand is average, and the market is affected by macro - events and related varieties [16].

美豆价格从低点反弹，玉米、小麦逼近两周高点，天气炒作会否接棒引爆农产品行情？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...