Report Investment Ratings The provided content does not include industry investment ratings. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture, with different sectors facing various opportunities and challenges. Policy factors, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends are key determinants of price movements in different industries [3][5][23] - In the short - term, the market may experience fluctuations due to factors such as policy expectations, overseas interest rate decisions, and seasonal demand changes. Over the long - term, fundamental factors like supply - demand balance and cost support will play a more significant role [5][25][31] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Shanghai's support for enterprise basic research, progress in AIDS vaccine R & D, and overseas stock trading tax regulations [2] - The central government's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains, but short - term market adjustments occurred due to overseas factors and large short - term A - share gains. The general strategy is to go long on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - Tuesday's market saw some changes in contract prices. Central bank liquidity operations and relevant regulations in Hong Kong were announced [4] - The economy showed resilience in the first half, but July PMI was lower than expected. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term with short - term oscillations [4][5] Precious Metals - Prices of gold and silver rose. The dovish statement of a Fed official increased the probability of a larger - scale interest rate cut, supporting precious metal prices [6] - It is recommended to buy on dips, with specific price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - EU trade measures and weak US non - farm data led to a copper price rebound. LME and domestic inventories showed different trends [9] - Supply is tight, but the upside of copper prices is limited in the off - season. Specific price ranges are given for Shanghai and London copper [9] Aluminum - Domestic inventory accumulation and unclear overseas trade situations caused aluminum price oscillations. LME and domestic inventories changed [10] - Aluminum prices may continue to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with price ranges for domestic and London aluminum provided [10] Zinc - Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore inventory increased, and refined zinc production is expected to rise. Downstream consumption weakened [11] - The risk of zinc price decline is expected to increase [11] Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore inventory decreased, and supply is relatively loose. Domestic inventory increased slightly [12] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly [13] Nickel - Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Nickel ore supply recovery is slow, and downstream demand is weak [14] - It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rallies, with price ranges for Shanghai and London nickel provided [14] Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply recovery is expected in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply is tight. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong [15] - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with price ranges provided [15] Carbonate Lithium - The spot index was flat. Weekend non - mine disturbances had a short - term impact on the contract. The supply - demand relationship may improve, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [16] - Speculative funds are advised to wait and see, and holders can choose appropriate entry points. A price range for the contract is given [16] Alumina - The index rose. Supply contraction policies need further observation, and the over - capacity situation may persist [17][18] - It is recommended to short on rallies, with a price range for the domestic contract provided [18] Stainless Steel - The price rose. Social inventory decreased slightly, and the supply of some products was tight [19] - The short - term market is expected to be optimistic, with prices oscillating strongly [19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - The contract price rose slightly. The market was light, and inventory decreased [20] - The price rebound space is limited due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [20] Black Building Materials Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed different trends. The overall market was weak, and export competitiveness declined [22][23] - The fundamentals are still weak, and the price may return to the real - world trading logic. Attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [23] Iron Ore - The price rose. Overseas shipments decreased, and demand was affected by individual steel mills. Port inventory decreased [24][25] - The price is expected to oscillate following downstream prices, and risk control is necessary [25] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fell, and the market was bearish. Soda ash prices were stable, and inventory increased [26][27] - Glass prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. Long - term opportunities for shorting soda ash are recommended [26][27] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Prices showed different trends. The market was volatile, and the fundamentals of both are expected to weaken [28][29][30] - Investment positions are advised to wait and see, while hedging positions can be considered [28] Industrial Silicon - The price fell. Supply is excessive, and demand is insufficient. The impact of market sentiment has declined [32][33] - The price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to new policy narratives [33] Polysilicon - The price fell. The market was affected by capacity integration expectations and corporate price - holding strategies [34][35] - The price is expected to oscillate widely, and caution is advised [35] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Prices rebounded after a decline. The market has different views on supply and demand. Tire factory开工率 decreased, and inventory increased [37][38] - A neutral strategy is recommended, and a spread trading strategy is suggested [41] Crude Oil - Prices fell. Chinese oil inventory data showed different trends. The market has upward momentum but is limited by the off - season [42] - A short - term long strategy with a target price is recommended, and long positions can be considered for September geopolitical and hurricane factors [42] Methanol - The price fell. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Port inventory is accumulating [43] - The price is under pressure due to high valuation and weakening supply - demand [43] Urea - The price rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price decline space is limited [44] - The price volatility is expected to decline after the market sentiment cools down [44] Styrene - The spot price was stable, and the futures price fell. Cost support exists, and the BZN spread may repair [45] - The price is expected to rise following the cost after port inventory reduction [45] PVC - The price fell. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the valuation is high. Export needs to be observed [47] - The price fell after the "anti - involution" sentiment faded [47] Ethylene Glycol - The price fell. Supply decreased slightly, and demand was weak. Inventory decreased slightly [48] - The fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the valuation may decline [48] PTA - The price fell. Supply may increase, and demand is about to end the off - season. Inventory is expected to accumulate [49] - Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long with PX [49] p - Xylene - The price fell. Supply increased, and demand decreased slightly. Inventory is expected to decrease [50] - The valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long with crude oil [50] Polyethylene - The price fell. Cost support exists, and inventory is high. Supply pressure will increase in August [51] - It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene - The price fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and the price may follow crude oil [52] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Pig prices mostly fell. Policy intervention in capacity reduction affected the market. Attention should be paid to spread trading opportunities [54] Eggs - Egg prices mostly fell. Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. The market is expected to be stable with some weakness [55] - Short - term short positions can be reduced, and medium - term shorting after a rebound is recommended [55] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices oscillated, and domestic soybean meal prices rose slightly. US soybean supply is abundant, while domestic import costs may rise [56] - A strategy of going long on dips and spread trading is recommended [57] Oils - Palm oil export data showed different trends, and production increased. The market is supported by policies and low inventory [58][59][60] - The price is expected to oscillate, with potential for an increase in the fourth quarter [61] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and import supply is increasing [62][63] - The price is likely to continue to fall [63] Cotton - Cotton prices rebounded slightly. Downstream consumption is weak, and inventory reduction has slowed down [64] - The short - term trend is bearish [64]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points, with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% [1][9]. - In terms of production, the industrial production high - frequency index is 126.2, with a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged [1][9]. - In terms of total demand, the real - estate sales high - frequency index shows a year - on - year decline of 6.4 points, with the decline rate remaining unchanged; the infrastructure investment high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 4.5 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the export high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 3.4 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the consumption high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 2.6 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [1][9]. - In terms of prices, the CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.1%, and the PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is 0.2%, both remaining unchanged from the previous values [1][9]. - The inventory high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.3 points, and the year - on - year growth rate narrows; the transportation high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 9.0 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands; the financing high - frequency index has a year - on - year increase of 29.7 points, and the year - on - year growth rate expands [2][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Remains Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 126.9 points (previous value: 126.8 points), with a year - on - year increase of 5.3 points (previous value: 5.3 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The long - short signal of interest - rate bonds remains unchanged, with a signal factor of 4.6% (previous value: 4.6%) [1][9]. 2. Production: Electric Arc Furnace Operating Rate Rebounds - The electric arc furnace operating rate is 62.8%, up from the previous value of 62.2%; the polyester operating rate is 86.8%, down from the previous value of 86.9%; the semi - tire operating rate is 74.5%, down from the previous value of 75.9%; the full - tire operating rate is 61.1%, down from the previous value of 65.0%; the PTA operating rate is 79.7%, down from the previous value of 80.8%; the PX operating rate is 82.4%, the same as the previous value; the coal dispatch at Qinhuangdao Port is 47.5 tons, down from the previous value of 49.4 tons [11][16]. 3. Real - Estate Sales: Property Transactions Continue to Rebound - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities is 24.4 square meters, up from the previous value of 21.0 square meters; the premium rate of land transactions in 100 large and medium - sized cities is 9.0%, up from the previous value of 7.8% [28]. 4. Infrastructure Investment: Asphalt Operating Rate Rebounds - The operating rate of asphalt plants is 33.1%, up from the previous value of 28.8% [38]. 5. Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Decline - The CCFI index is 1232 points, down from the previous value of 1261 points; the RJ/CRB index is 301.9 points, down from the previous value of 303.8 points [45]. 6. Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturers' Retail and Wholesale Sales Continue to Rebound - Passenger car manufacturers' retail sales are 66,611 units, up from the previous value of 58,207 units; wholesale sales are 77,867 units, up from the previous value of 57,826 units; the average daily box office is 23,068 yuan, up from the previous value of 14,066 yuan [59]. 7. CPI: Wholesale Prices of Pork and White - Feathered Chicken Decline Slightly - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.5 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 20.7 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.4 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits is 7.1 yuan/kg, the same as the previous value; the average wholesale price of white - feathered chicken is 17.2 yuan/kg, down from the previous value of 17.4 yuan/kg [65]. 8. PPI: Steam Coal Price Continues to Rise - The closing price of steam coal (produced in Shanxi) at Qinhuangdao Port is 658 yuan/ton, up from the previous value of 649 yuan/ton; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil is 72 US dollars/barrel, up from the previous value of 69 US dollars/barrel; the spot settlement price of LME copper is 9672 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 9821 US dollars/ton; the spot settlement price of LME aluminum is 2596 US dollars/ton, down from the previous value of 2647 US dollars/ton [68]. 9. Transportation: Passenger Volume Rebounds - The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 3902 person - times, up from the previous value of 3900 person - times; the highway logistics freight rate index is 1050 points, the same as the previous value; the number of domestic flights is 14,562, up from the previous value of 14,428 [82]. 10. Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Continues to Decline - The electrolytic aluminum inventory is 18.1 tons, up from the previous value of 15.5 tons; the soda ash inventory is 179.0 tons, down from the previous value of 187.4 tons [90]. 11. Financing: Local Government Bond and Credit Bond Financing Declines - The net financing of local government bonds is 2425 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 2929 billion yuan; the net financing of credit bonds is 134 billion yuan, down from the previous value of 549 billion yuan; the 6M state - owned stock bill transfer discount rate is 0.6%, down from the previous value of 0.74%; the average value of the bill rate - certificate of deposit rate is - 1.1%, down from the previous value of - 0.91% [100].

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) rose by 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, marking three consecutive months of positive growth, indicating optimistic business expectations and overall market expansion [1][5] - The overall stability in the commodity market is supported by the implementation of "anti-involution" policies and increased macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustment measures [5][7] - Despite the positive trends, global commodity price volatility and external uncertainties remain significant challenges for certain industries [1][5] Commodity Price Index Summary - The CBPI for July 2025 is reported at 111.4 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [3][6] - The black metal price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index rose to 130.1 points, up 1.1% month-on-month [3][7] - The energy price index decreased to 96.7 points, down 0.6% month-on-month, and the chemical price index fell to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month [3][8] Sector-Specific Insights - In July, 32 out of 50 monitored commodities saw price increases, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and coking coal rising by 10.2%, 9.8%, and 9.6% respectively [5][6] - The chemical sector experienced a decline, with methanol and cement prices dropping by 5% and 4.8% respectively, attributed to supply-demand imbalances and increased inventories [8][9] - The agricultural price index slightly decreased to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, influenced by high temperatures and lower-than-expected summer consumption [8][9] Market Dynamics - The rebound in black metal prices is driven by improved market confidence and rising prices of raw materials like coking coal and coke [6][7] - The energy sector's decline is linked to seasonal production slowdowns and weaker downstream demand [7][8] - The mineral price index fell to 71.7 points, down 2.7% month-on-month, due to weak downstream demand and increased inventory pressures [9]

Group 1 - The European Union will suspend two countermeasures against U.S. tariffs within six months based on an agreement reached with the U.S. [1] - The U.S. and EU have agreed on a trade deal that includes a 15% tariff on EU goods entering the U.S. [1] - The EU is expected to increase investments in the U.S. by $600 billion and purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products [1] Group 2 - The trade agreement is anticipated to provide stability to the market, according to EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [1] - The agreement will maintain the current tariffs on steel and aluminum, with energy being a key component of the deal [1] - The deal is expected to have significant impacts on the automotive and agricultural sectors [1]

Core Points - The European Commission announced a six-month suspension of proposed counter-tariffs against the U.S., marking a step towards easing trade tensions between the EU and the U.S. [1] - The agreement between EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Trump aims to restore stability and predictability for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic [1] - The EU and the U.S. are finalizing a joint statement and are committed to fully implementing the political consensus reached after internal processes are completed [1] Summary by Sections Trade Agreement Details - The agreement includes a 15% tariff on most European goods entering the U.S., including key products like automobiles, while the U.S. will eliminate all tariffs on EU industrial goods [1] - Trump claimed that the EU has committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products and an additional $600 billion in new investments, although the specifics of these investments remain unclear [2] Legal and Political Context - The EU emphasized that the agreement reached in July is a political agreement and does not have legal binding power [2] - The EU and the U.S. will continue negotiations to ensure the full implementation of the agreement based on their internal procedures [2] Timing and Implications - The announcement comes as the Trump administration's trade agenda enters a critical week, with the implementation of tariffs on over 60 countries being postponed from August 1 to August 7 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreement between the EU and the US, highlighting the suspension of certain tariffs and the implications for various industries, particularly automotive and energy sectors [1]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The EU will suspend two countermeasures against US tariffs within six months as part of the agreement [1]. - The US will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, with the EU expected to increase investments in the US by $600 billion [1]. - The agreement includes significant purchases of US military equipment and energy products valued at $750 billion [1]. Group 2: Industry Implications - The trade agreement is expected to stabilize the market and will have a major impact on the automotive industry [1]. - The energy sector is identified as a key component of the agreement, with a focus on US energy product purchases [1]. - The agreement will also affect the agricultural sector significantly [1]. Group 3: Additional Context - US President Trump criticized India's oil purchasing practices from Russia and indicated plans to raise tariffs on Indian imports [1].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Japan's government bond liquidity has deteriorated beyond the levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, with the Bloomberg Japan government bond liquidity index surpassing the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy levels[2] - The relative performance of U.S. cyclical stocks versus defensive stocks is closely tied to forward swap rates linked to interest rates, indicating market optimism about sustained high rates despite expectations of Fed rate cuts[5] - The relative performance of MSCI Japan bank stocks is highly correlated with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, benefiting from rising inflation expectations in Japan[5] Group 2: Investment Trends - Global fund managers have increased their allocation to technology stocks, reaching the highest level since March 2009, while reducing positions in cash and consumer staples[6] - Emerging market sovereign debt and U.S. Treasury yield spreads have narrowed to a 15-year low, reducing the attractiveness of emerging market debt strategies[6] - The relative performance of European consumer staples has diverged from the gold-to-copper ratio since 2024, indicating a weakening relationship with macroeconomic conditions[7] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The relative P/E ratios of U.S. and European stock indices are closely linked to the uncertainty of economic policies, with European valuations rising as U.S. policy uncertainty increases[9] - China's 5-year and 1-year interest rate swap spread turned positive in July 2025, reflecting increased investor confidence in inflation due to domestic policies and infrastructure projects[8] - The South African stock index has risen approximately 19% since 2025, driven by increasing gold and platinum prices, outperforming other emerging market indices[13] Group 4: Sentiment and Risk - The SPDR U.S. Dollar ETF's call option volume has been declining, suggesting limited upward momentum for the dollar index in the near future[13] - A significant portion of fund managers (38%) view global trade conflicts as the biggest tail risk, with "shorting the U.S. dollar" identified as the most crowded trade[6]

南方财经全媒体记者 林汉垚 北京报道 截至8月4日，保险资金年内在A股及H股市场累计举牌达21次，一举超越去年全年水平。中国人寿、平 安人寿、泰康人寿等十余家机构密集出手，举牌标的涵盖银行、能源、公共事业等领域。 华泰证券分析指出，险资正通过高息股填补现金收益缺口，并借新会计准则下FVOCI（以公允价值计量 且其变动计入其他综合收益的金融资产）计量平滑利润波动。 与此同时，财政部拉长国有险企考核周期、国家金融监管总局上调权益资产配置上限等政策组合拳，推 动"耐心资本"保险资金与实体经济深度协同。 年内举牌量超去年全年 根据原中国保监会于2015年发布的《保险公司资金运用信息披露准则第3号：举牌上市公司股票》，保 险公司举牌上市公司股票，是指保险公司持有或者与其关联方及一致行动人共同持有一家上市公司已发 行股份的5%，以及之后每增持达到5%时，按照相关法律法规规定，在3日内通知该上市公司并予以公 告的行为。 中国保险行业协会网站信息显示，截至8月4日，保险资金年内在A股及H股市场已累计举牌上市公司达 21次，已超过去年全年举牌次数。 据统计，今年以来举牌上市公司的保险机构有中国人寿、平安人寿、新华保险、瑞众人寿 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the service sector is performing strongly, which is expected to drive economic demand expansion both overseas and domestically [1][17][25] - It emphasizes the continuous improvement of the domestic economic fundamentals, indicating a high probability of long-term allocation success for risk assets [1][25][36] - The report notes that improving demand may influence the trading logic of crude oil and gold [1][41][52] Market Review - As of July 30, 2025, global equity assets showed good performance, with MSCI global returning 1.79% and emerging markets at 2.43%, outperforming developed markets [8] - The domestic market performed well, with the CSI All Share Index yielding 5.80% and active equity funds showing exceptional performance, with the China Equity Index rising 8.77% [8][14] - Commodity assets, particularly crude oil and gold, experienced significant price movements influenced by demand and geopolitical factors [8][41] Market Outlook Overseas Market - The service sector's strong performance is expected to positively impact overall economic demand expansion [17][18] - Despite challenges in the manufacturing sector and rising long-term bond yields, the service sector's growth is seen as a stabilizing factor for the global economy [18][20] Domestic Market - The domestic economy has shown resilience, with GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, driven by consumption and exports [25][27] - Industrial value-added increased by 6.8% year-on-year, with notable growth in sectors such as automotive and machinery [25][26] - Consumer spending is improving, with retail sales growing by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by government subsidies and innovative consumption trends [25][27] Asset Allocation Strategy Equity Funds - The report suggests a "core + opportunity" barbell strategy, focusing on stable, high-performance assets while also seeking growth opportunities in sectors like technology and consumer goods [3][36] - Emphasis is placed on long-term allocations in risk assets due to favorable economic conditions [3][36] Fixed Income Funds - The report recommends focusing on medium to short-duration bonds for better risk-reward ratios, as long-duration bonds may present diminishing returns [3][36] - Financial and interest rate bonds are highlighted as preferred choices for conservative investors [3] QDII Funds - The report indicates that new economic drivers, particularly AI, are accelerating economic demand growth, presenting long-term opportunities for QDII funds [3][41] - Attention is drawn to the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions on crude oil prices and the ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [41][47]

Group 1 - The establishment of the Xianning Changzheng High-tech Industry Investment Fund has a total scale of 3 billion yuan, focusing on local advantageous industries such as health, electronic information, green energy, and new materials [1] - The Pudong New Area has launched a 2 billion yuan artificial intelligence seed fund aimed at supporting early-stage innovative talent and technologies [1] - The Fujian provincial government is selecting fund managers for the Sci-tech Relay S Fund, with a target scale of no less than 5 billion yuan [2] Group 2 - Shanghai's three leading industry mother funds are selecting the third batch of sub-funds to support original innovation and results transformation in integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence [2] - The Hubei humanoid robot industry investment fund has a total scale of 10 billion yuan, focusing on humanoid robots and artificial intelligence [2] - The Nanchong City private equity investment fund has completed registration with a total scale of 1 billion yuan, focusing on high-end machinery manufacturing [3] Group 3 - The Shanghai Artificial Intelligence CVC Fund has a first phase total scale of 3 billion yuan, aiming to create a comprehensive financial empowerment system for artificial intelligence [3] - The Net-Load Energy Fund has been established with a total scale of 3 billion yuan, focusing on integrated energy projects [3] - The Sichuan Digital Culture Fund has successfully completed registration with a total scale of 254 million yuan, focusing on digital culture and economy [4] Group 4 - The Kaihui (Dassault) Digital Industrial Fund has been established in Shanghai, focusing on digital and intelligent innovation in the industrial sector [4] - Aojie Technology plans to invest in a private equity fund with a total scale of 2.11 billion yuan, targeting key industries such as integrated circuits and biomedicine [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released draft guidelines for government investment funds, aiming to enhance investment direction and evaluation management [4]