Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the bond market in China operated smoothly in 2022, with mixed fluctuations in government bond yields and a stable, orderly high level of openness to foreign investment [1] Group 1: Bond Market Overview - In 2022, the total issuance of various bonds in China reached 61.9 trillion yuan, remaining stable year-on-year [1] - The interbank bond market accounted for 56.0 trillion yuan of the total issuance, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, while the exchange market issued 5.8 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Specific Bond Issuances - Government bonds issued totaled 9.6 trillion yuan, while local government bonds amounted to 7.4 trillion yuan [1] - Financial bonds issued reached 9.8 trillion yuan, and corporate credit bonds issued were 13.8 trillion yuan [1] - Asset-backed securities for credit issuance totaled 334.5 billion yuan, and interbank certificates of deposit issued were 20.5 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Market Custody and Growth - As of the end of December 2022, the custody balance of the bond market was 144.8 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.3 trillion yuan [1] - The custody balance in the interbank bond market was 125.3 trillion yuan, while the exchange market's custody balance was 19.5 trillion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government bond market experienced a notable decline, with the 30-year government bond futures dropping by 0.38%, and the yield rising to 1.9680%, the highest since April, indicating ongoing upward pressure on interest rates and reduced demand for long-term bonds [1] Market Analysis - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时, 511130) opened lower and fell by 38 basis points during the day, with a trading volume exceeding 2 billion yuan and a turnover rate over 13%, reflecting active trading [1] - Recent policies in the real estate sector, such as the cancellation of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring in Beijing, are expected to be followed by Shanghai and Shenzhen, which may open up market expectations despite limited real impact [2][3] - The ongoing internal demand policies may indicate increasing external pressures, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations, with potential tariff increases looming [2][3] Investment Strategy - The current market environment shows a divergence in opinions among institutions, with some suggesting that the 30-year government bonds above 1.95% present trading value, and recommending gradual accumulation [1][3] - The liquidity remains loose, with the central bank maintaining a supportive stance, although there may be expectations of increased pressure in September [3] - The equity market is showing signs of bubble formation, with high margin trading levels, while the bond market is perceived as relatively safe during this divergence phase [3] ETF Information - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时, 511130) was established in March 2024 and is one of only two on-market ultra-long-term bond ETFs, tracking the "Shanghai 30-Year Government Bond Index" [4]

Group 1: Domestic Market Developments - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Education issued a revised "Management Measures for Supporting the Development of Preschool Education Funds," emphasizing budgetary supervision and prohibiting the use of funds for non-educational expenditures [4] - The Central Clearing Company announced the simplification of investment processes for foreign central bank institutions in the interbank bond market, removing the requirement for a compliance commitment letter [3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 112 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 432.8 billion yuan due to the maturity of 544.8 billion yuan in reverse repos [7][9] Group 2: International Market Insights - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that most trade negotiations with countries lacking agreements are expected to be completed by the end of October, following the implementation of new tariffs [5] - The international crude oil futures prices continued to rise, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $63.96 and $66.63 per barrel, respectively [6] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market experienced a significant decline as market risk appetite increased, with the yield on the 10-year government bond rising by 2.65 basis points to 1.7175% [10] - The secondary market saw notable price deviations, with the "H0 Zhongnan 02" industrial bond increasing by over 60% and the "19 Yushan Holdings Bond 02" decreasing by over 49% [12][13] - The convertible bond market followed the equity market's upward trend, with major indices rising and a total trading volume of 841.24 billion yuan [17]

依据《上海证券交易所非公开发行公司债券挂牌规则》等规定，上交所同意苏州国有资本投资集团有限 公司2025年面向专业投资者非公开发行科技创新公司债券（第三期）于2025年8月13日起在上交所挂 牌，并采取点击成交、询价成交、竞买成交、协商成交交易方式。该债券证券简称为"25苏国K3"，证 券代码为"259261"。 来源：金融界 8月12日，上交所发布关于苏州国有资本投资集团有限公司2025年面向专业投资者非公开发行科技创新 公司债券（第三期）挂牌的公告。 ...

Group 1 - The report maintains an optimistic view on liquidity for August and September, expecting funding rates to remain low, which will support the bond market [4][7][14] - Seasonal factors indicate that August typically sees continued liquidity, and September's pressure is manageable compared to the previous quarter-end [4][9] - Government bond issuance pressure may increase but is likely to be below expectations due to faster issuance earlier in the year and a lower-than-average pace anticipated for August and September [9][12] Group 2 - The bond market is currently constrained by inflation expectations and low profitability, which may prevent liquidity optimism from driving interest rates down [14][39] - Recent bond market performance shows a recovery trend, with yields on various government bonds declining, indicating a mixed response to market conditions [39][40] - The report suggests focusing on coupon value in bond investments, with caution advised for low liquidity trading products [16][39] Group 3 - High-frequency data indicates a negative year-on-year growth in housing transaction areas, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [45][61] - Production data shows mixed trends, with some sectors experiencing increased operational rates while others face declines, highlighting a diverse economic landscape [45][46] - Commodity prices are fluctuating, with oil prices declining and metals like copper and aluminum seeing price increases, indicating varied market dynamics [46][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The short - term fluctuations caused by current policies are constrained within the interest rate central framework, and the bond market will return to the fundamentals in the medium term after short - term negative shocks [2][19] - In the context of continued loose funding, the bond market is expected to maintain an oscillation range of 1.65% - 1.75%. A decline below 1.65% or a new low requires a substantial domestic interest rate cut, so whether the Fed cuts interest rates in September is an important variable [2][19] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week's Data Review - **Funding Rates**: DR001 remained at around 1.31% with a 1BP weekly fluctuation; R001 was around 1.35% and closed at 1.34% on August 8th with a 1BP weekly fluctuation. DR007 fell 2BP from 1.45% on August 4th to 1.43% on August 8th; FR007 dropped from 1.48% to 1.46% with a 2BP weekly decline [7] - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase injection volume shrank to 1126.7 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 1660 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of - 536.5 billion yuan [7] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rates**: The inversion of the 10 - year bond yield spread between China and the US slightly increased. The 6 - month SOFR rate in the US dropped from 4.10% on August 4th to 4.06% on August 8th, while the 6 - month SHIBOR rate in China remained stable at 1.61%. As of August 8th, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 245BP with a slightly reduced inversion. The 2 - year and 10 - year bond yield spreads were - 236BP and - 258BP respectively, with a slightly increased inversion in the short - and long - term spreads [13] - **Term Spreads**: The term spreads of Chinese bonds and US bonds both slightly expanded. The 10 - 2 year spread of Chinese bonds increased from 28BP to 29BP; the 10 - 2 year spread of US bonds expanded by 1BP to 51BP [15] - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The yield curve of Chinese bonds shifted downward by about 2BP - 3BP; the yield curve of US bonds flattened, with most maturities rising except for the 3 - month maturity, and the mid - term callback was relatively large [15] 2. Narrowing of CPI and PPI Month - on - Month Declines - **CPI**: In July, the year - on - year CPI was flat, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The food item of CPI was - 1.6% year - on - year, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, while the non - food item was 0.3% year - on - year, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. The month - on - month CPI rose from - 0.1% to 0.4%, the highest since February this year. Service consumption, driven by the summer tourism season, had a significant month - on - month increase [20][21] - **PPI**: In July, the year - on - year decline of PPI remained at 3.6%, and the month - on - month decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to - 0.2%, the first narrowing since March this year. The narrowing of PPI month - on - month mainly relied on the recovery of producer goods ex - factory prices. The month - on - month decline in prices of multiple industries narrowed, which was consistent with the increase in commodity prices [28] 3. Key Bond Market Events Last Week - **US Employment Data and Fed Rate - Cut Probability**: The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, lower than the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. The poor employment data increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in September [30] - **Bond Market Underwriting Regulations**: On August 7th, a notice on strengthening self - discipline management of bond underwriting quotes in the inter - bank bond market was issued, stating that lead underwriters should not bid for bond projects with underwriting fees below cost [32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the ordinary credit bonds have declined, with spreads continuing to compress, and AAA bonds with a maturity of 3 years or less are within the 3% percentile range, suggesting a focus on short to medium-term arbitrage [1] - Ordinary commercial paper bonds have seen a general decline in yields, with spreads compressing again, currently showing AAA 3-year spreads within the 10% percentile range, indicating limited cost-effectiveness [1] - The spreads for secondary bonds have also narrowed, remaining relatively tight but offering slightly better cost-effectiveness compared to ordinary commercial paper bonds [1] Group 2 - Data as of August 8, 2025, shows the yield rates for various credit bonds, with AAA bonds yielding 1.83% for 3-year maturities, and the historical percentile for this yield is at 0.3% [2] - The credit spreads for AAA bonds are reported at 0.20% for 3-year maturities, with a historical percentile of 2.6% [2] - The yield spread for AAA bonds over 1-year to 0.5-year is 0.05%, with a historical percentile of 24.2% [2]

8月12日，上交所发布关于长江产业投资集团有限公司2025年面向专业投资者公开发行科技创新公司债 券（第二期）（长江战略支点）上市的公告。 依据《上海证券交易所公司债券上市规则》等规定，上交所同意长江产业投资集团有限公司2025年面向 专业投资者公开发行科技创新公司债券（第二期）（长江战略支点）于2025年8月13日起在上交所上 市，并采取匹配成交、点击成交、询价成交、竞买成交、协商成交交易方式。该债券证券简称为"25长 产K3"，证券代码为"243430"。根据中国结算规则，可参与质押式回购。 来源：金融界 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Global Asset Market Performance Report 1. Global Bond Market 1.1 10-year Treasury Yields - On August 11, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yields in the US, UK, and France were 4.287%, 4.564%, and 3.355% respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the US, UK, and France were 0.003, -0.036, and 0.007 respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the US, UK, and France were 0.310, 0.683, and 0.363 respectively [3]. 1.2 2-year Treasury Yields - On August 11, 2025, the 2-year Treasury yields in the US, UK, and Germany were 3.720%, 3.859%, and 1.961% respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the US, UK, and Germany were 0.030, -0.037, and 0.009 respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the US, UK, and Germany were -0.630, 0.156, and -0.486 respectively [3]. 1.3 Credit Bond Indexes - The latest changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, Eurozone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were 0.09%, -0.00%, etc. respectively [3][4]. - The one - year changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, Eurozone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were 4.87%, 4.56%, etc. respectively [4]. 2. Global Stock Market 2.1 Major Economy Stock Indexes - On August 11, 2025, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 6373.450, 43975.090, and 21385.400 respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were -0.25%, -0.45%, and -0.30% respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and NASDAQ were 17.02%, 8.99%, and 24.38% respectively [3]. 2.2 Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 3647.55, 4122.51, and 2789.90 respectively [5]. - The price - to - earnings ratios (PE(TTM)) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.30, 11.43, and 30.82 respectively [5]. - The latest values of capital flows in A - shares, the main board, and the small and medium - sized enterprise board were 524.49, 191.94, etc. respectively [5]. 3. Foreign Exchange Market 3.1 USD against Major Emerging Economy Currencies - On August 11, 2025, the exchange rates of USD against the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and South Korean Won were 5.443, 17.757, and 1390.850 respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the exchange rates of USD against the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and South Korean Won were 0.15%, 0.06%, and 0.21% respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the exchange rates of USD against the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, and South Korean Won were -5.28%, -2.83%, and 1.55% respectively [3]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rates - On August 11, 2025, the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and RMB central parity rate were 7.189, 7.197, and 7.141 respectively [3]. - The latest changes in the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and RMB central parity rate were 0.12%, 0.10%, and 0.03% respectively [3]. - The one - year changes in the on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, and RMB central parity rate were -0.78%, -0.76%, and 0.11% respectively [3]. 4. Futures Market 4.1 Stock Index Futures - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 3647.55, 4122.51, and 2789.90 respectively [5]. - The price - to - earnings ratios (PE(TTM)) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.30, 11.43, and 30.82 respectively [5]. - The latest values of capital flows in A - shares, the main board, and the small and medium - sized enterprise board were 524.49, 191.94, etc. respectively [5]. 4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.495, 105.735, 108.390, and 105.780 respectively [6]. - The price changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [6].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Fiscal Measures - The central government is implementing a more proactive fiscal policy to enhance investment in people's livelihoods, promote consumption, and strengthen economic resilience [1][5] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts and timely adjustments to ensure effective policy implementation [1][9] Group 2: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first half of the year, the national general public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, while expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.4% [2][4] - Local general public budget revenue reached 669.77 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, with 27 out of 31 provinces reporting revenue growth [2][3] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Initiatives - The government is accelerating the issuance of special bonds to support consumption, with 690 billion yuan allocated for the third batch of consumer goods replacement subsidies [5][6] - The total sales of consumer goods under the replacement program reached 1.6 trillion yuan, contributing to a 5% year-on-year increase in total retail sales of consumer goods [6][7] Group 4: Social Welfare and Support - New policies for free preschool education and childcare subsidies are expected to benefit approximately 12 million children, with an additional 20 billion yuan in fiscal spending [8][9] - The central government has increased transfer payments to local governments by 8.4%, amounting to 1.03415 trillion yuan, to enhance local financial capacity and support basic livelihood guarantees [9][10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The implementation of more proactive fiscal policies is expected to continue into the second half of the year, with a focus on maintaining spending intensity to support consumption and investment [10][11] - The introduction of long-term special bonds and local special bonds is anticipated to further solidify the positive trend in high-quality economic development [10]