Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" research trend is gaining momentum in the A-share market, with expectations that it may become the main theme for the next market phase, benefiting various sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coal, steel, chemicals, energy, and construction materials [2][3][4]. Group 1: Research and Analysis - In the past week, a total of 176 research reports on the "anti-involution" theme were published by institutions, covering multiple industries including strategy, macroeconomics, steel, fossil energy, electrical equipment, building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and aquaculture [2]. - The "anti-involution" theme has become a focal point in analyst roadshows, with 79 related events held in the past week, indicating a strong institutional interest [2]. - Analysts believe that the current round of "anti-involution" has a higher standing, broader coverage, and stronger synergy, with potential implications for the market's next phase [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Implications - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote a unified national market and address issues of low-price competition, which has led to increased attention on "anti-involution" in the capital market [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to unfold in three stages: policy expectations, price increases, and demand expansion, with a focus on sectors that may experience a turnaround [4]. Group 3: Beneficiary Industries - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include: - Midstream and downstream manufacturing such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, passenger vehicles, paper, and medical devices - Service and consumer sectors like food processing, express delivery, and small appliances - Resource materials including steel, cement/glass, consumer building materials, chemical fibers/agricultural chemicals, and energy metals - Real estate-related sectors such as kitchen appliances and home furnishings [5][6]. - The steel industry is highlighted for its potential bottom reversal, with supply-side reforms and improved profitability expected [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with significant stock price increases observed in related sectors [9]. - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic sector's recovery will depend on effective supply-side reforms and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for eliminating outdated capacity [9]. - Recent downgrades in specific photovoltaic stocks indicate a cautious outlook despite the overall positive sentiment in the sector [10].

Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose slightly by 0.01% to 3510.18 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.61% to 10696.1 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.8% to 2207.1 points, with the STAR 50 Index up by 1.48% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 173.69 billion yuan, an increase of over 220 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Key sectors that saw gains included brokerage, non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and steel, while the banking sector experienced a decline in the afternoon [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The new photovoltaic paste industry is accelerating, with a projected market space exceeding 15 billion yuan by 2030, corresponding to a CAGR of approximately 60% from 2025 to 2030 [2] - New types of photovoltaic pastes, such as silver-coated copper and high copper/pure copper pastes, are expected to achieve mass production by Q4 2025 [2] Group 3: Rare Earth Market - MP Materials has established a partnership with the U.S. Department of Defense to enhance the domestic rare earth supply chain, highlighting the strategic value of rare earth resources [3] - Demand for rare earths is expected to grow due to increasing needs in electric vehicles, air conditioning, and industrial robots, with the commercialization of humanoid robots further expanding future demand [3] - The recovery of exports and seasonal supply increases in Southeast Asia are anticipated to stabilize rare earth prices, benefiting the profitability of companies in the industry [3] Group 4: CXO Industry Outlook - The CXO industry is expected to see a recovery in overseas demand as the market gradually warms up in 2024, with good growth trends in new orders for domestic CXO companies [4] - The CRO sector is projected to stabilize in pricing by the second half of 2024, with some segments experiencing increased demand in 2025 [4] Group 5: Policy Developments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange has implemented new rules to deepen the reform of the STAR Market, allowing unprofitable companies to enter the growth tier and introducing a pre-review mechanism for IPOs [5][6] - The Ministry of Finance has issued guidelines to establish long-term assessment mechanisms for state-owned insurance companies, promoting stable and long-term investments [7] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is pushing for state capital to concentrate on strategic emerging industries [8] Group 6: Robotics Sector - Zhiyuan Robotics and Yushu Technology have won a significant contract for humanoid bipedal robot manufacturing services from China Mobile, with a total budget of 124 million yuan, marking it as the largest order in the domestic humanoid robot sector [9]

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.02%. Key sectors such as precious metals, rare earth permanent magnets, and securities showed significant gains [1]. Institutional Insights - According to Caixin Securities, there is an expectation for a "de-involution" market trend, with no significant macro risks anticipated before August. The market is entering a new bullish phase, supported by improved investor sentiment and increased capital inflow. Although there are strong resistance levels, a predominantly strong oscillating market is expected, with an increase in investment tolerance. As long as the broad market indices do not show significant breakdowns, maintaining a high equity market position is advisable. The implementation of "de-involution" policies could alleviate the "increased income without increased profit" dilemma, potentially leading the indices into a new upward phase [2]. - Huazhong Securities remains optimistic about the trend in banking and insurance sectors, noting that while overseas tariff risks may increase, A-shares are gradually becoming desensitized. The upcoming second-quarter economic data is expected to be weaker than the first quarter but may exceed market expectations. The market is likely to experience increased volatility, with a focus on the banking sector's high dividend yield and the potential for significant valuation recovery in the real estate sector. Sectors with strong support include rare earth permanent magnets, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investment suggestions include focusing on sectors related to "de-involution" such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, automobiles, steel, building materials, coal, and pork. Additionally, stablecoin-related sectors like fintech and brokerage, as well as non-ferrous sectors such as rare earths and precious metals (especially silver), are recommended. Companies with mid-year earnings forecasts likely to exceed expectations include those in overseas computing power, wind power, shipping, innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and military industries [2].

从市场运行节奏看，沪指突破去年四季度密集成交区，重心继续上移。沪指突破五、六月份来回震 荡的小箱体后连续上行，已经越过了去年四季度的密集成交区，重心再次上移。目前上方的主要技术压 力位在去年十月初的高点，这个位置也是周线大箱体的顶部位置。 风险提示：国际地缘、贸易冲突超出预期；全球金融市场风险暴露；国内上市公司业绩增速回落超 预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 首先，宏观预期有所改善，A 股市场连续上涨。近期国际局势有所好转，外部环境开始边际改善。 全球贸易摩擦逐步缓和，美国的部分压制手段有所收敛。国内方面，"反内卷"工作持续推进，产能过剩 预期将有所缓解，这对提升盈利预期有正面作用。此外，稳定币的发展对金融板块形成一定利好，推动 相关板块持续活跃，帮助指数冲破重要技术压力。上周，两市连续反弹，日均成交增加。沪指上周延续 了向上反弹的趋势，周三盘中创出去年 11 月以来的高点，周四周五继续向上推进。深圳成指上周同步 反弹，创出阶段高点。量能方面，上周两市日均量能超过 15000 亿，较上周出现回升。上周市场热点主 要集中在钢铁、房地产和券商等行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技风格涨幅更大。 ...

港股部分中资券商股走强，国联民生(01456.HK)盘中一度涨超30%，现涨超20%，兴证国际(06058.HK) 涨超7%。 ...

Group 1: Computer Industry Deep Dive Report - The report emphasizes the evolution of technology paths and the opportunities within the industry chain, focusing on hardware interconnection and scenario adaptation [10][12] - The emergence of supernodes is driven by explosive growth in model parameters, shifting computing demand from single points to system-level integration [12] - Key players like NVIDIA and Huawei have made significant breakthroughs in cabinet-level interconnection and cross-cabinet networking technologies, marking a competitive focus on high-density computing [12] - Domestic solutions, represented by Huawei's CloudMatrix 384, have achieved significant computing scale breakthroughs, surpassing single-card performance bottlenecks [12] - The industrialization of supernodes will reshape the computing industry chain, creating investment opportunities in server integration, optical communication, and liquid cooling [12] Group 2: Insurance Industry Commentary - The report discusses the implementation of long-cycle assessments for insurance companies, which aims to align long-term investments with short-term evaluations [11][13] - The new policy encourages insurance funds to enter the market, addressing previous barriers to investment and enhancing the role of insurance capital in the capital market [13][15] - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a potential reduction in long-term interest rates, which could optimize new liability costs and improve investment returns [15] Group 3: Tencent Holdings Commentary - Tencent is projected to achieve a revenue of 178.3 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth, with net profit expected to reach 60.2 billion yuan, a 5% increase [17][19] - The gaming segment continues to show healthy growth, with anticipated revenue growth of 14% in Q2 2025, driven by new game releases [17] - The advertising revenue is expected to grow by 17%, supported by AI-driven enhancements in advertising capabilities [17] - Tencent's commitment to AI is evident across its business segments, enhancing user engagement and operational efficiency [17] Group 4: Debt Market Analysis - The report describes the current "stair-step" trend in the debt market, characterized by a low interest rate and low spread environment [14][16] - The analysis highlights the importance of identifying small strategies within the debt market, as the overall market remains in a state of fluctuation [14] - Future developments, such as potential interest rate cuts and the resumption of government bond purchases, are seen as necessary to break the current market trend [14]

廖市无双：轻舟已过 3500，后市可为空间几何？ 20250613 摘要 市场短期阻力与长期潜力：上证指数在 3,555 点附近面临技术阻力，但 多头均线排列和强劲的市场情绪预示着未来仍有上行潜力，或在四季度 前挑战 3,674 点。 筹码结构分析：天朗 50 筹码结构显示，筹码密集区位于 3,350 点附近， 当前点位偏离平均成本，短期存在调整压力，但密集筹码支撑市场迅速 反弹。 板块轮动与风格变化：金融与科技板块齐飞，顺周期板块如房地产和基 建开始走强。金融和成长风格表现突出，消费和稳定风格出现触底迹象， 主题投资成为超额收益的关键。 银行板块投资逻辑：银行板块受益于资产荒和稳定资金流入，周期性上 涨仍有空间，建议逢低配置，但需警惕估值过高或快速上涨的情况。 券商板块投资策略：券商板块反弹显著，但部分个股仍有上涨空间。建 议进行高低切换，将涨幅较大的换成前期涨幅较小的券商股票，优化投 资组合。 Q&A 当前市场走势如何，未来可能会出现哪些变化？ 自 6 月 24 日市场选择向上以来，至 7 月 11 日市场表现强劲。我们在 6 月 24 日翻多，并预测市场短期内会上涨。实际情况显示，市场在 7 月 11 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - A-share market in China Core Points and Arguments 1. Recent policy measures have exceeded expectations, boosting market sentiment, with more policies anticipated before the Politburo meeting to support the market [1][3] 2. Concerns over tariffs have eased as the U.S. has not imposed tariffs on key countries, and a short-term agreement in U.S.-China tariff negotiations is likely [1][3] 3. There is a high expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which may lead to increased liquidity in China, positively impacting the market [1][3] 4. Low-valuation financial blue chips (banks, insurance) remain favored by large institutional investors, while non-bank sectors related to digital currency (brokerage firms) benefit from U.S.-China financial competition and support for digital currencies in Shanghai [1][4] 5. Economic data for June indicates weak domestic demand, with a significant drop in PPI by 3.6%, reflecting pressure on the economic fundamentals [1][5] 6. The real estate sector shows a widening year-on-year decline in weekly sales, with both prices and sales decreasing, contributing to downward pressure on the economy [1][5] 7. The upcoming mid-year report period may bring market pressure as companies with declining performance are required to disclose results, likely maintaining a volatile market trend [1][7] 8. Conditions for sustained market growth during the mid-year report period include positive policies, improved fundamentals, and relatively low valuations [1][8] 9. This year, the economic data is weak, and while mid-year profit growth may improve compared to Q1, overall economic and profit recovery is sluggish, making sustained growth unlikely [1][10] 10. Industries likely to perform well during the mid-year report period include those supported by policies and high prosperity, such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and value sectors like steel and building materials [1][11] 11. The TMT sector typically shows weak performance in July but may improve in August; however, this year, the sector may struggle due to poor mid-year results [1][12] 12. In the current macro environment, both growth and value styles are balanced, with low valuations being a key focus; industries like automotive, media communication, and pharmaceuticals are highlighted [1][13] 13. Industries that may benefit from U.S. tariffs on certain countries include electronics, machinery, textiles, chemicals, and agriculture [1][15] 14. Recommended sectors for investors include high valuation and profit growth potential in cyclical and growth industries, such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, and banking [1][16] 15. Specific areas within the technology growth sector to watch include gaming in media, digital currency in computing, consumer electronics in electronics, and computing power in communication [1][17] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The overall market is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upward space due to ongoing fundamental challenges [1][5][7] - Historical data indicates that since 2010, there have been nine years of structural market trends during mid-year reports, with varying outcomes based on external events [1][8][10]

Group 1: Company Performance Highlights - Zijin Mining (SH601899) expects a net profit of approximately 23.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 54% [1] - Zijin Mining's copper and gold production increased by 10% and 17% respectively in the first half of this year [1] - China CNR (SH601766) anticipates a net profit of 6.722 billion to 7.562 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 60% to 80% [2] - Dongpeng Beverage (SH605499) projects a net profit between 2.31 billion and 2.45 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, an increase of approximately 33.48% to 41.57% compared to the previous year [3] - Seres (SH601127) expects a net profit of 2.7 billion to 3.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a rise of 66.20% to 96.98% year-on-year [3] - WuXi AppTec (SH603259) forecasts a net profit of about 8.561 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 101.92% [4] - China Shipbuilding Industry (SH600150) anticipates a net profit between 2.8 billion and 3.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 98.25% to 119.49% [4] - Muyuan Foods (SZ002714) expects a net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan for the first half of this year, a staggering increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% compared to the previous year [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - The mining sector, particularly gold and copper, is experiencing price increases, contributing to the positive performance of companies like Zijin Mining [1] - The beverage industry, represented by Dongpeng, is diversifying product lines to sustain growth [3] - The automotive sector, as seen with Seres, is focusing on software-defined vehicles to enhance profitability and market presence [3] - The pharmaceutical and biotech sectors, exemplified by WuXi AppTec, are leveraging integrated business models to drive growth and efficiency [4]

Investment Focus - The report indicates that the market may enter a critical pullback after reaching new short-term highs, but the rally continued with A-shares rising 1.1% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.9% due to the stablecoin theme boosting brokerages [1][7] - The financial sector's share of A-share turnover increased from 5.5% on July 1 to 12% on July 11, while the share of the CSI 2000 continued to decline [1][7] Market Dynamics - The current rally since the "Liberation Day" was initially led by new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals, with Hong Kong stocks outperforming, followed by a takeover by large financials, resulting in A-shares outperforming Hong Kong [2][8] - The Hang Seng Tech Index and STAR 50 peaked in early May and are currently consolidating, awaiting new catalysts [2][8] Liquidity and Capital Flows - A-shares have shown stronger short-term liquidity compared to tightening liquidity in Hong Kong, with margin financing continuing to grow [2][8] - Southbound net inflows rebounded to HKD 26.4 billion, with significant buying in financials, semiconductors, healthcare, and staples, while trimming positions in communication services [3][10] IPO Activity - Huadian New Energy is expected to list next week, raising RMB 15.8 billion, which is significantly higher than the average weekly IPO issuance expected in 2025 [4][11] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the market remains in a wide consolidation range and may enter a near-term pullback before attempting another breakout [4][12] - If a correction phase occurs, it is recommended to avoid sectors that have rallied sharply, such as banks and innovative pharmaceuticals, while considering opportunities in large-cap blue chips during significant corrections [4][12]