你没听错，美国政府的信用评级被穆迪降级了，从最顶级的Aaa降到了Aa1。这就好比是你一直以为自己是 全班学习委员，结果突然被老师通知：对不起，你现在只是普通班干部。 而且穆迪还特意强调一句："放心，我们现在对你的评级是稳定的，意思是你虽然已经掉下去了，但短期 内还不会再掉。"听起来就像医生跟你说："你虽然胖了20斤，但短期内不会再胖了。"这能叫安慰吗？ 一听这消息，美股立马开始抖了，纳指和标普500 ETF盘后跌了0.4%。债券市场也开始跟着神经质，美国 10年期国债收益率飙到4.48%，两年期也跟着兴奋了一把——这要是债券也会说话，它肯定在喊："终于轮 到我上热搜了！" 更热闹的是，这已经不是第一次美国被降级了。前有惠誉（Fitch），再有标普（S&P），现在连**穆迪 （Moody's）**也下手了——这仨评级机构就像是三位前女友，轮番在社交平台上发文："我早就说过他不 靠谱！"结果现在，美国三大信用评分全军覆没，正式退出"三A俱乐部"。 你问为啥降级？原因其实也不复杂——**美国政府太会花钱，不会存钱。**穆迪直说了：你这十多年来债 务和利息狂飙，已经甩同龄人几条街了！就像一个朋友每年都说"我要存钱买房 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to rising government debt and interest payments, marking the first time all three major rating agencies have downgraded the U.S. from its highest rating since 1994 [1][5][9] Group 1: Rating Downgrade Details - The U.S. federal government debt has reached $36.2 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with projections indicating it could rise to 134% by 2035 [4][5] - The fiscal deficit for FY2024 is projected to be $2.1 trillion, exceeding 6.4% of GDP, and is expected to rise to 9% by 2035 under high-interest conditions [5][10] - Moody's cited the inability of current fiscal plans to significantly reduce mandatory spending and deficits as a reason for the downgrade [4][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade announcement, U.S. stock futures, Treasury futures, and the dollar index all weakened, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.023%, the highest since November 2023 [2][15] - Historical context shows that previous downgrades have led to significant market volatility, with the Dow Jones experiencing a maximum single-day drop of 5.55% in 2011 [16][17] Group 3: Expert Opinions - Analysts express concerns that the downgrade reflects a long-standing issue of unsustainable debt levels and political dysfunction, which could lead to increased borrowing costs and reduced demand for U.S. debt [7][18] - Richard Francis from Fitch highlighted the uncertainty surrounding large-scale spending cuts and the persistent high deficit, which is projected to remain around 120% of GDP [7][14] - Experts warn that the downgrade could undermine the perception of U.S. Treasuries as a risk-free asset, potentially leading to a shift in investment strategies [17][18]

央视网消息：国际评级机构穆迪近日下调美国主权信用评级、美国政府设置的关税壁垒仍高于预期，消费者信心持续低迷，经 济负面效应持续显现，来看国际媒体的分析评论。 西班牙《20分钟报》：充满变数 风险犹存 美国有线电视新闻网：消费者信心持续低迷 文章说，由于关税政策带来诸多不确定性以及政府债务上升，穆迪近日将美国的主权信用评级下调，至此美国失去主要评级机 构对它的最后一个3A最高评级。这体现美关税政策未来走向不明，令国内经济形势复杂化，贸易前景充满变数。分析指出，美国通 胀预期没有改观，当前整体经济形势依旧是暗流涌动、风险犹存。 5月美国消费者信心指数为50.8，比上个月下降了2.7%。特朗普政府此前设置关税壁垒，加剧了民众对经济衰退的担忧，导致消 费者信心指数逐月下降。尽管中美经贸高层会谈达成共识的消息在一定程度上提振了市场情绪，但专家认为这一反弹幅度较小，目 前看仍不足以改变整体形势，阶段性进展没能扭转市场的悲观预期。 日经亚洲评论：现有关税水平依旧是沉重的负担 中美经贸高层会谈达成共识后，经营玩具、服装等消费品的美国零售商迅速要求中国供应商发货并启动新订单。但对于众多美 国企业和机构而言，下调后的关税水平依旧 ...

截至发稿，标普500指数期货跌近1%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌1.2%。 智通财经APP获悉，由于穆迪下调美国主权信用加剧了对美国债务的担忧，长期美国国债收益率一度上 升至5%的心理水平，美国股指期货跟随美元下跌。 穆迪上周五宣布取消美国政府的最高信用评级，将其从Aaa下调至Aa1。该公司将不断膨胀的美国预算 赤字归咎于历届总统和国会议员，并称预算赤字几乎没有收窄的迹象。 此次评级下调可能会加剧华尔街对美国主权债券市场的担忧。目前美国国会正在讨论更多无资金支持的 减税措施，而随着美国总统唐纳德·特朗普颠覆长期建立的商业伙伴关系并重新谈判贸易协议，美国经 济似乎将放缓。 周一，10年期美国国债收益率上升3个基点至4.50%，30年期美国国债收益率短暂上涨约6个基点至 5.00%，随后涨幅收窄。长期基准利率若突破5%，将触及2023年的水平——当年的峰值达到5.18%，为 2007年以来的最高水平。 富兰克林邓普顿投资解决方案公司副首席投资官Max Gokhman表示："在没有资金支持的财政慷慨措施 不断加速的情况下，美国国债评级被下调并不令人意外。随着大型投资者开始逐步将美国国债换成其他 避险资产，偿债成本将继 ...

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose in the week of May 16, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.7, up 0.17% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 102.36, up 0.2%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 91.42, up 0.31% [1][2] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2103, appreciating by 358 points or 0.49% for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.2098, appreciating by 304 points or 0.42% [5] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD was reported at 7.1938, with a cumulative increase of 157 points or 0.22% for the week [5] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the recent US-China trade talks led to significant consensus, providing support for the RMB exchange rate, while the middle rate remained relatively stable [5] - The RMB's depreciation pressure has significantly eased, and further appreciation will depend on future policy guidance [6] - Changes in exporters' foreign exchange settlement behavior will be crucial for the RMB exchange rate, as companies have retained substantial high-interest USD deposits [6] International Credit Ratings - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a loss of the highest rating across all three major international credit rating agencies [7] Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index for May was reported at 50.8, below expectations of 53.4 [7] - The US April PPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% [7] Financial Policies - The Chinese government has introduced new policies to accelerate the construction of a technology finance system, focusing on venture capital, monetary credit, capital markets, and technology insurance [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the major asset restructuring management measures for listed companies, introducing several new regulatory frameworks [10]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has recently reversed its trend, with spot gold rising over 1% on May 19, reaching $3,240.68 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 1.93% to $3,248.6 per ounce [1][5]. Price Movements - As of May 19, spot gold was reported at $3,240.68 per ounce, showing a daily increase of $38.9 or 1.21% [3]. - COMEX gold futures closed at $3,248.6 per ounce, up $61.4 or 1.93% from the previous close of $3,187.2 [2]. Recent Trends - The gold price had previously peaked at approximately $3,430 per ounce on May 7, followed by a significant decline, including a drop of about $72 per ounce on May 14, marking a daily decrease of 2.23% [5]. - Factors contributing to the recent decline included improved market risk appetite following U.S.-China trade talks and a noticeable outflow from global gold ETFs due to profit-taking [5]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices reflects a short-term bearish sentiment influenced by trade easing, a rebound in the U.S. dollar, and technical overbought conditions [6]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing concerns about U.S. dollar credit risk and expectations of continued central bank gold purchases [6].

穆迪认为，美国政府当前财政支出计划无法让强制性支出和赤字在未来出现实质性减少。该机构预计，如果不调整税收和支出，美国预算灵活性仍将有 限，包括利息在内的强制性支出占总支出的比例将从2024年的73%左右升至2035年的78%左右。如果美国国会2017年通过的《减税与就业法案》得以延 长，未来10年内，扣除利息支出后的美国联邦财政赤字将增加约4万亿美元，美国联邦政府债务占国内生产总值（GDP）比重到2035年将升至134%。 摩根大通策略师Jay Barry在一份报告中表示，长期来看，穆迪下调美国评级可能会导致利息支出增加，此举将使美债相对于匹配期限的隔夜指数掉期 （OIS）价格走低。 该策略师表示，鉴于需求格局发生结构性转变，贸易和货币政策存在不确定性，短期内风险倾向于熊陡。这一事件导致的波动程度应该会比4月初关税公 告后出现的波动更小，因为投资者的仓位现在更加中性，而且不太可能像上个月那样出现夸大基本面的市场波动。 报告还称，在其他条件相同的情况下，穆迪此次下调评级，会使30年期掉期利差缩小约5个基点。然而，美债似乎已经显示出比其他类似评级的发达市场 主权债券更高的风险溢价，这表明价格降低的幅度可能比这些系 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 穆迪下调美国信用评级，5 月美通胀预期继续 回升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-19 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 穆迪下调后 美国失去最后一个最高信用评级 穆迪下调了美国评级，这意味着美国失去了最高信用评级，对 于美国财政赤字的担忧上升，美元短期走弱。 宏观策略（黄金） 5 月美国通胀预期继续回升 综 周五金价震荡收涨，在 3200 美金附近运行，俄乌谈判扰动市场， 穆迪下调美国主权评级，对金价构成提振，但黄金尚未摆脱回 调趋势。美国政府债务问题市场多黄金核心逻辑。 合 农产品（豆粕） 晨 阿根廷大豆收获完成 66% 报 上周国内进口大豆成本变动不大。全国油厂共压榨大豆 190.55 万吨，钢联预估本周压榨升至 220 万吨以上，豆粕将进入季节性 累库周期，现货及基差压力不减。 有色金属（锌） 近期俄罗斯龙兴矿锌矿招标下半年 2-3 万吨锌矿 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03107631 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0021468 | | Tel： | 862 ...

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from AAA to AA1 due to the increasing scale of government debt and interest payments, while adjusting the outlook from "negative" to "stable" [1] Group 1: Credit Rating Changes - Moody's is the latest credit rating agency to downgrade the U.S. credit rating, following Fitch's downgrade to AA+ in August 2023 and S&P's downgrade to AA+ in August 2011 [1] - The downgrades are closely associated with the U.S. debt ceiling approaching the "X date," raising concerns about fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - Moody's expressed concerns about the current fiscal situation and future budget plans, predicting that by 2035, U.S. federal debt will reach 134% of GDP and the federal deficit could rise to 9% of GDP [1][2] - The agency noted that mandatory spending, including interest payments, will increase from 73% of total government spending in 2024 to 78% by 2035, limiting budget flexibility for other public investments [2] Group 3: Current Debt Situation - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in bonds maturing by June 2025 [2] - The fiscal deficit for the first half of FY2025 has already exceeded $1.3 trillion, marking the second-highest level for that period in history [2] Group 4: Political Context - The current fiscal challenges are described as long-term issues rather than short-term problems created by the current administration, with efforts underway to reduce federal spending and promote economic growth [3] - There are concerns regarding the objectivity of credit rating analysts, with political affiliations being questioned, although such claims may serve to divert attention from underlying fiscal issues [3]

韩国财政部：预计穆迪下调美国评级带来的市场冲击有限；将密切注意金融市场及汇市。 ...