Group 1 - OPEC+ has increased production, leading to a significant drop in oil prices, suggesting a downward trend in the future [1] - The US dollar has weakened across the board, while Asian currencies have strengthened, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 78% compared to 22% bearish, while the S&P 500 Index has 37% bullish and 63% bearish sentiment [3] - The Nasdaq Index has a strong bullish sentiment at 79%, while the Dow Jones Index shows 64% bullish and 36% bearish [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index is evenly split at 50% bullish and 50% bearish, while the German DAX40 Index has 22% bullish and 78% bearish sentiment [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 60% and bearish of 40%, while the Euro/GBP pair shows 67% bullish and 33% bearish [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a significant bearish sentiment at 85%, while the Euro/AUD pair is more balanced with 54% bullish and 46% bearish [3] - The GBP/USD pair has 24% bullish and 76% bearish sentiment, while the GBP/JPY pair shows 43% bullish and 57% bearish [3] - The USD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 56% and bearish of 44%, while the USD/CAD pair shows 32% bullish and 68% bearish [3] - The USD/CHF pair has a strong bullish sentiment at 96% and only 4% bearish [3] Group 4 - The AUD/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 55% and bearish of 45%, while the AUD/JPY pair shows 42% bullish and 58% bearish [4] - The CAD/JPY pair has a bearish sentiment of 62%, while the NZD/USD pair is evenly split at 50% bullish and 50% bearish [4] - The NZD/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 63% and bearish of 37%, while the USD/offshore RMB pair shows a significant bearish sentiment at 87% [4]

假期期间，离岸人民币兑美元汇率从7.28关口一路升至7.21，创年内最大单日涨幅。市场分析认为，这一波升值受多重因素驱动，中美贸易谈判预期改善。 二、从市场当前的状态来看，大阳线并非遥不可及。 相比之下，创业板想要收复失地就难多了。现在创业板指数是1948点，而大跌前是2065点，差了100多点，得涨6%左右才能完全收复。 要是没有创业板龙头股强势崛起、引领行情，想实现这个目标可太难了。和国外市场相比，A股目前的表现确实有点差，很多个股还处于蛰伏状态，不过这 也意味着有明显的补涨空间。 三、人民币汇率强势反弹，离岸人民币单日暴涨超700点。 一、中美贸易战美国又喊话了！对此，中方正在进行评估是否进行谈判。 关税问题能坐下来谈当然是好事，但特朗普那变幻莫测的态度，一天变三样，谁也搞不清哪句是真哪句是假，真是让人摸不透。这事儿还得靠他来解开。美 国要是想消除所有关税，那还得再观察一整年，等他们拿出诚意了，才能好好谈。美国财长贝森特还威胁要把中国企业从美股强制退市，说什么"所有选项 都已提上日程"。 现在美国用这种歪招逼着中企退市，短期内企业肯定会有损失，但从长远来看，对美国资本市场伤害更大。这不就砸了自己的招牌嘛 ...

图片来源：Francis Chung—Politico/Bloomberg/Getty Images 在特朗普总统态度发生转变，称他无意解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔之后，美元汇率迎来回升。对 于这一全球"储备货币"而言，这是一则难得的利好消息。今年以来，美元指数（DXY，美元相对于 一篮子主要货币）已下跌了9%。 这就引出了一个问题：究竟是谁在抛售美元，抑或是谁在抛售那些致使美元贬值的资产，其背后的动因 又是什么？ 最初，日本和中国被视为可能的"幕后推手"。毕竟，两国出口市场因特朗普挑起的贸易战而受到冲击， 而且它们分别是美国国债的第一和第二大外国持有国。或许，这些国家意在借此向特朗普释放信号：记 住，我们同样具备反制之力。 然而，消息人士告诉《财富》杂志，并无充分证据表明中日两国在蓄意压低美元汇率。 此外，或许令人颇感意外的是，据这些消息人士透露，目前几乎没有证据显示，面临流动性困境的对冲 基金突然被迫平仓美国债券杠杆头寸，进而引发了近期的抛售潮，最终导致美元汇率承压下行。 相反，责任在于他人 特朗普经济政策的摇摆不定给全球带来了极大的不确定性，以至于包括股票、债券和货币在内的各类资 产投资者纷纷选择撤离美 ...

Core Viewpoint - MHmarkets aims to enhance forex trading efficiency through innovative technologies, focusing on smart algorithms, real-time data analysis, and user experience optimization. Group 1: Technology Innovation - Smart algorithms optimize trading strategies, improving market adaptability and data analysis accuracy [4][7] - Automation systems and low-latency technology ensure efficient trade execution [5][10] - Artificial intelligence and blockchain drive technological innovation, enhancing market competitiveness [7][15] Group 2: Data Analysis and Market Prediction - Big data analysis allows for more accurate market trend predictions, reducing uncertainty in decision-making [8][9] - Real-time data analysis improves market transparency and optimizes trading decisions [8][9] Group 3: User Experience Enhancement - User interface improvements and security measures enhance overall user experience [6][12] - Simplified trading processes increase operational efficiency for users [12] Group 4: Security Measures - Advanced data encryption techniques ensure user information security during transactions [13] - Account security management focuses on password complexity and two-factor authentication [13][15] - Continuous updates to security protocols help prevent hacking attempts [15] Group 5: Customer Support and Service - Multi-channel customer communication enhances customer experience and satisfaction [17] - 24/7 technical support ensures timely resolution of customer issues [18] - Personalized customer service strengthens loyalty and satisfaction [18] Group 6: Future Directions - Focus on the potential applications of AI and blockchain in forex trading [19] - Strategies for optimizing user experience and expanding into global markets [19][20]

美联储现在更有可能更快出手降息以支撑疲软的经济，而疲软的数据可能也会促使特朗普放松关税，更 快达成协议。 City Index和Forex.com的Fawad Razaqzada：疲软的（PCE通胀）数据可能会加速美联储降息。 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/04/30 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/29 | 4.174 | 4.479 | 3.217 | 2.496 | 3.606 | 3.162 | 0.355 | 3.321 | -0.036 | -0.029 | -0.019 | -0.023 | -0.021 | -0.018 | -0.033 | - ...

美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克（Howard Lutnick）在29日表示，特朗普政府已经达成首个贸易协议，但 该协议尚未完全就绪。卢特尼克也没有披露该协议涉及的国家名称。 剑桥全球支付公司的首席市场策略师卡尔·沙莫塔（Karl Schamotta）表示，随着特朗普政府在贸易问题 上的调门儿变软，美元在外汇市场上的汇率正在向均值回归。月末大量资金的再平衡流动也推高美元兑 日元汇率。 新华财经纽约4月29日电（记者刘亚南）由于市场对贸易紧张的担忧缓解，29日美元兑一揽子货币全面 走高，美元指数在隔夜市场走强，当日早间明显回落，随后强势盘整，尾盘时美元指数上涨。 荷兰国际集团外汇策略师弗朗切斯科·佩索莱（Francesco Pesole）表示，在上周出现一些头寸再平衡以 后，本周密集发布的数据可能会为投资者重新做空美元提供多个机会。就业市场的疲软可能会触发美联 储更快采取行动。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.23%，在汇市尾市收于99.237。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特（Karoline Leavitt）在29日上午举行的记者招待会上表示，目前进口汽车 25%的进口关税将继续，但特朗普将出台新的措施 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the seasonal strength of the US dollar in December, driven by multiple factors including corporate cash repatriation, institutional portfolio rebalancing, and central bank liquidity management [1][3]. Group 1: Corporate Cash Repatriation - Corporate cash repatriation is identified as a primary driver of dollar strength, exemplified by Apple's repatriation of $240 billion in cash before December 15, which significantly impacted the forex market [3]. - This annual capital flow phenomenon is framed within the context of the US tax code, specifically Section 965, which has created a predictable pattern in currency markets [3]. Group 2: Institutional Portfolio Rebalancing - Institutional investors' portfolio adjustments contribute to market volatility, as seen when Norway's sovereign fund reduced its emerging market equity holdings by 5% in favor of US Treasuries, leading to a 2.3% depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar [3]. - The scale of cross-border capital flows in December is typically 40% higher than the monthly average, indicating a significant seasonal impact on the forex market [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Liquidity Management - Central bank liquidity management plays a crucial role, with the Federal Reserve utilizing reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) to regulate dollar supply, exemplified by a $300 billion liquidity withdrawal in December 2022 [3]. - This strategy has led to a notable increase in overnight interest rates, demonstrating the Fed's influence on market expectations through deliberate liquidity adjustments [3]. Group 4: Seasonal Patterns and Market Volatility - Seasonal patterns are not isolated; research indicates that when the dollar's seasonal strength coincides with Federal Reserve meetings, exchange rate volatility can increase to three times the normal level [5]. - Investors are advised to monitor corporate overseas cash estimates and sovereign fund holdings at the end of November to navigate the capital flow dynamics effectively [5].

在金融市场上，对美国特朗普政府政策操作的过度警惕感逐渐缓解。上周，美国股票、债券和货 币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参与者仍然没有放松紧 张情绪，认为抛售美国可能复燃。本周（4月28日开始的一周）将公布美国就业指标的结果，根 据内容，市场的平静可能会被打破。 上周的外汇市场上，4月以来持续的美元贬值趋势得到了遏制。代表美元对主要货币综合实力 的"美元指数"4月21日从约三年来的底部——97区间，恢复到了99区间。 在交易货币买卖权利的货币期权市场上，应对日元升值和美元贬值的趋势正在缓解。反映各货币 对美元买权需求和卖权需求哪个更大的"风险逆转(Risk Reversal,1个月指标)"在4月25日为-1.5% 以下。自4月3日以来，负值最小。负值越大，表明日元买权需求越大，日元升值警惕感越强。4 月11日，负值一度达到-3.5%以下，这是自2024年8月金融市场混乱以来的最大负值。 金融市场对特朗普的 猜疑没有消失（Reuters） 美国股票、债券和货币齐齐遭到抛售的"三杀"局面告一段落。但观察市场数据可以看到，市场参 与者仍然没有放松紧张情绪。美国经济是导致美国股债汇"三 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 德克萨斯制造业指标大幅下滑，七地锌锭库 存增加 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-29 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 德克萨斯制造业指标大幅下滑 美国德克萨斯制造业指标大幅度下滑，美国经济下行压力延续， 美元指数震荡走弱。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 2790 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 4 月末 5 月中上旬，国债期货表现应强于 4 月中下旬。近期逢回 调买入的策略性价比上升。 综 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 合 上海重大工程建设按下加速键 晨 报 钢价早盘回落，延续震荡格局，市场对于行政性减产的情绪区 域理性和谨慎。虽然控产政策大概率推出，但具体执行细节和 监管才是市场更为关心的内容，预计短期钢价震荡运行。 有色金属（锌） 七地锌锭库存增加 0.01 万吨 中期供需趋松未发生逆转，维持逢高沽空逻辑为主，国内制造 业 PMI 或受关税影响拖累，高波动下注意控制仓位。 能源化工（原油） 印度提高了 4 月 ESPO 采购量 油价震荡下跌，市场等待 OPEC+政策进一步明确。 | 王心彤 | 资深分析师 | （黑色金属） | | --- | --- | --- ...