Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [3] Core Views - The macroeconomic data indicates a decline in the PMI to 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The main raw material purchasing price index also decreased by 0.7 percentage points [5][27] - The report highlights the need for the chemical industry to focus on high-end, green, intelligent, and circular development as emphasized in the recent policy recommendations from the Communist Party of China [5][51] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on sectors such as coal chemical, fluorochemical, phosphate and phosphorus chemical, and potassium fertilizer [5][61] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Data - The October PMI is at 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month. The main raw material purchasing price index is at 52.5%, down 0.7 percentage points [27] - The PPI for September shows a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [5][27] - Fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year decline of 5.6% in September, widening from the previous month [27] Downstream Industry Performance - In September, the export value of textile yarns and fabrics increased by 6.4% year-on-year, while the export value of household appliances decreased by 9.6% [42] - The production of new energy vehicles decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while automobile production increased by 3.2% [42] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the SW coal chemical, SW fluorochemical, SW phosphate and phosphorus chemical, and SW potassium fertilizer sectors for potential investment opportunities [61][62] - Recommended ETF: Penghua CSI Sub-Sector Chemical Industry Theme ETF (159870.SZ) [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices continued to oscillate strongly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,644 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.74%. Spot prices were mostly stable. The daily output of the urea industry decreased slightly, and the demand follow - up sentiment improved. Although enterprise inventory increased by 1.53% this week, short - term market logic is shifting to factors such as coal cost support, reduced production of gas - based enterprises, and export rumors. The new export quota news may drive the market up, but caution is advised [1]. - Soda ash futures prices oscillated in a wide range and trended strongly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,207 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.84%. Spot manufacturers' quotes were mostly stable, while traders' quotes continued to strengthen. This week, the industry's start - up rate and production decreased, and enterprise inventory increased slightly. Demand was stable, but the downstream was more cautious after the rebound. The fundamentals still face pressure, and excessive bullishness is not recommended [1]. - Glass futures prices fluctuated widely and trended weakly on Thursday, with the closing price of the main 01 contract at 1,101 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 0.45%. The spot market rebounded slightly. The industry's production capacity decreased, and the demand sentiment was positive, but the sustainability needs verification. After the production line maintenance, the short - term market lacks new drivers and returns to a wide - range oscillation pattern [1]. Summary by Directory Market Information Urea - On November 6, the number of urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 3,900, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 1,192 [4]. - On November 6, the daily output of the urea industry was 19.59 tons, a decrease of 0.08 tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 1.22 tons compared with the same period last year. The start - up rate was 83.73%, 1.35 percentage points higher than 82.38% in the same period last year [4]. - On November 6, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were mostly unchanged. For example, the price in Shandong was 1,580 yuan/ton, in Henan was 1,570 yuan/ton, etc. [4]. - As of November 5, the urea enterprise inventory was 157.81 tons, an increase of 2.38 tons or 1.53% compared with last week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 6, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 9,318, a decrease of 300 from the previous trading day, and the effective forecast was 756. The number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 219, a decrease of 34 from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 6, the spot prices of soda ash in different regions varied. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,200 yuan/ton, and the heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - As of the week of November 6, the soda ash industry's start - up rate was 85.67%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly production was 74.69 tons, a decrease of 1.07 tons or 1.41% [7]. - As of November 6, the soda ash manufacturer inventory was 171.42 tons, an increase of 2.24 tons or 1.32% compared with Monday, and an increase of 1.22 tons or 0.72% compared with last Thursday [7]. - As of November 6, the average price of the float glass market was 1,157 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The industry's daily output was 15.91 tons, a decrease of 0.014 tons from the previous day [7]. - As of November 6, the inventory of domestic float glass sample enterprises was 63.136 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.654 million weight boxes or 4.03% from the previous week, and an increase of 29.05% compared with the same period last year. The inventory days were 27.1 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from last week [8]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing prices of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, their basis, trading volume and open interest, the price difference between different contracts, spot price trends, and the price difference between different futures varieties. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][22][23]. Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the research director of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, focuses on the sugar industry. She has rich experience and many honors in the industry [25]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is responsible for the research of futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has participated in many projects and won multiple awards [25]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst of resource products at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, is mainly engaged in the fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Jinmei Technology's stock has shown a significant increase in price and trading activity, indicating positive market sentiment and potential investment interest [1][2]. - As of November 7, Jinmei Technology's stock price rose by 2.17% to 3.30 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.355 billion CNY [1]. - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 28.91%, with a 5-day increase of 5.77% and a 20-day increase of 10.00%, while it has seen a 2.94% decline over the past 60 days [1]. Group 2 - Jinmei Technology, established on February 17, 1994, and listed on March 11, 1994, is primarily engaged in the production of coal chemical products, with major revenue sources including ethylene glycol (68.83%) and oxalic acid (25.72%) [2]. - As of September 30, the company reported a revenue of 688 million CNY for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.17%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -88.80 million CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 55.28% [2]. - The company has a total of 52,700 shareholders, which is a decrease of 14.94% compared to the previous period [2]. Group 3 - Jinmei Technology has cumulatively distributed 43.87 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the last three years [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Lu Xi Chemical has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in stock price year-to-date but a decline in net profit [1][2]. Group 2 - As of November 7, Lu Xi Chemical's stock price increased by 2.12% to 13.96 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 26.584 billion CNY [1]. - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 23.10%, with a recent 5-day increase of 3.56%, a 20-day decrease of 4.97%, and a 60-day increase of 15.37% [1]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Lu Xi Chemical reported a revenue of 21.918 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 35.03% to 1.023 billion CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 9.885 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.167 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 3 - Lu Xi Chemical's main business segments include chemical new materials (66.07% of revenue), basic chemicals (20.11%), fertilizers (12.06%), and other products (1.76%) [1]. - The company is categorized under the basic chemicals industry, specifically in chemical raw materials and coal chemicals [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical industry will continue to consolidate in a range. Attention should be paid to when the high inventory of liquid chemicals starts to decline. The supply pressure of crude oil persists, and geopolitical risks still exist. The overall chemical industry continues its weak and volatile pattern, with methanol rebounding during the day. The supply of PTA is limited in the short - term, and the processing fee of short - fiber is expected to be compressed. Energy and chemical products generally show a pattern of range - bound movement [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks remain. The EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory increased last week, the refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, and gasoline and diesel continued to destock. The overseas refined oil inventory pressure has eased, and the crack spread is strong, which still provides phased support for the demand side of crude oil. However, the reality of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price may test the 3200 pressure level again. The OPEC + group will continue to increase production in December, and after the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict, the crude oil price has declined. The supply tension problem has been resolved, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt has begun to decline [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region is expected to decline in November due to the decrease in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil and fluctuates weakly. It is affected by the decline in Russian refined oil exports, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to follow the crude oil to fluctuate, and its current valuation is relatively low [4][11]. - **PX**: The market lacks clear news guidance, and the price fluctuates in a range under the game between cost and sentiment. The cost - side guidance is limited, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is acceptable under the support of the downstream polyester load [12]. - **PTA**: New Fengming starts new and stops old, and the short - term new supply is limited. The upstream cost is in a stalemate, and the supply has not significantly decreased. There is a certain expectation of improvement in the short - term supply - demand pattern, and the price is not likely to fall deeply in the short - term [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting their previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The upstream cost fluctuates, and the short - fiber itself has no independent market, with limited supply - demand variables and general driving forces [18][19]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost is in a stalemate, and the supply - demand drive is limited. The upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate within a range, and the polyester bottle chip price follows suit. The medium - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the processing fee is in a stalemate [20]. - **Methanol**: There is slight support at the 2100 integer level, and it fluctuates. The domestic methanol factory operating rate is at a high level, and the supply is abundant. The port inventory is high, but considering the possible disturbances from Iran in winter, it still has low - buying value [23]. - **Urea**: High inventory suppression and cost support coexist, and it is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The supply is at a high level and fluctuates, the demand for winter wheat is coming to an end, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space of the futures price, while the coal cost provides support [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand contradiction has become the focus of the market again, and the pessimistic sentiment is difficult to reverse. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the short - term, and the market is worried about a new round of capacity release. The port inventory is expected to continue to increase [16]. - **Styrene**: There are still concerns about inventory over - filling, and it fluctuates weakly. The cost - side pure benzene supply has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation. The supply - demand difference in November is negative, and the port inventory pressure is still large [14]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and it fluctuates weakly. The macro - level disturbances have subsided in November, and the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The cost is stable, the production will increase after the end of the upstream maintenance, and the export is weak [28]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it fluctuates. The macro - level disturbances have subsided in November, and the fundamentals are improving, but the driving force may be limited. Attention should be paid to the cost support [29]. - **Plastic**: The short - term maintenance has decreased, and it is in a weak pattern. The oil price fluctuates, the plastic's own fundamental support is limited, the upper - and middle - stream still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, and the short - term maintenance has decreased, increasing the production pressure [25]. - **PP**: The fundamental support is limited, and it weakens. The oil price fluctuates, the PP's own fundamental support is limited, the current maintenance has decreased, the production has increased year - on - year, and the middle - stream inventory is at a high level in the same period of the past five years [26]. - **Propylene (PL)**: The downstream transaction improvement is limited, and it fluctuates. The CP prices of propane and butane announced by Saudi Aramco in November have decreased. The downstream demand is differentiated, suppressing the enterprise's shipment rhythm [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. show different changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.4 with a change of 0.03, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 8 with a change of 8 [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are presented. For example, the basis of asphalt is - 26 with a change of - 3, and the warehouse receipt is 7690 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. have different values and changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 68 with a change of - 147 [33].

Core Insights - The research team from the Shanxi Coal Chemistry Research Institute and Peking University has achieved a breakthrough in iron-based Fischer-Tropsch synthesis catalysts, achieving less than 1% carbon dioxide selectivity and over 85% olefin selectivity, providing new approaches for clean utilization of high-carbon resources [1][2]. Group 1: Research Breakthrough - The new catalyst allows for significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions while enhancing olefin production, which is crucial for the chemical industry as olefins are key raw materials for synthetic fibers, rubber, and plastics [1]. - The traditional iron-based catalysts have multiple active sites leading to high carbon dioxide generation, which limits carbon utilization efficiency and olefin selectivity [1]. Group 2: Methodology and Techniques - The research team employed a trace halogenated alkane co-feeding strategy, utilizing advanced characterization techniques such as X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and synchrotron radiation X-ray absorption spectroscopy to effectively regulate the surface oxygen species and catalytic performance at the molecular level [2]. - This "molecular surgery" approach does not require changing the catalyst formulation but simply involves introducing trace halogens into the reaction system, achieving near-zero carbon dioxide emissions and high olefin selectivity [2]. Group 3: Future Directions - The research not only achieved dual breakthroughs in low carbon and high efficiency but also provided important theoretical insights into the activation and regulation mechanisms of halogens in the reaction, which will aid in understanding the microscopic reaction pathways of iron-based Fischer-Tropsch synthesis catalysts [2]. - Future efforts will focus on scaling up the halogen regulation strategy for industrial applications and verifying long-term stability, promoting its use in coal-to-liquid, natural gas conversion, and biomass utilization, thereby supporting the transition of China's coal chemical industry towards a more efficient, low-carbon, and green direction [2].

Core Viewpoint - The evaluation of the "Coal Liquefaction for High-end Carbon Materials" project by experts indicates that the technology is at an internationally leading level and should be promoted for industrialization and application [1][2]. Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The process can convert coal into high-yield, high-quality asphalt, which is then used to produce high-end carbon materials [1]. - Key innovations include effective control of coal conversion, direct refining of asphalt during the process, and the production of advanced three-dimensional graphene and foam carbon from self-made asphalt [1][2]. - The technology can convert 60% of the carbon in coal into carbon materials, reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 2 tons for every ton of coal used, with minimal waste emissions that meet environmental standards [1]. Group 2: Economic Potential - The technology is adaptable to various coal types and can significantly increase the value of coal from thousands to tens of thousands of yuan per ton [2]. - A project processing 100,000 tons of dry coal is estimated to require an investment of about 1.65 billion yuan, with annual revenue reaching 1.88 billion yuan, allowing for investment recovery in approximately 3.1 years [2]. - The process allows for the graded and quality-based utilization of coal, with an asphalt yield of 30%-50% and a low ash content of 0.01%, making it a high-quality raw material for advanced carbon products [2]. Group 3: Market and Applications - The project has applied for 17 national invention patents, with 16 granted, indicating strong intellectual property rights and international competitiveness [2]. - The products can serve various sectors, including new energy vehicle batteries, energy storage devices, aerospace high-temperature components, and military radar-absorbing materials, with a corresponding market scale reaching trillions of yuan [2].

Core Insights - The research team from the Shanxi Coal Chemical Research Institute and Peking University has achieved a breakthrough in iron-based Fischer-Tropsch synthesis catalysts, achieving less than 1% carbon dioxide selectivity and over 85% olefin selectivity, providing new approaches for clean utilization of high-carbon resources [1][2]. Group 1: Research Achievements - The study published in "Science" demonstrates a significant advancement in catalyst performance, crucial for the production of olefins, which are key raw materials for synthetic fibers, rubber, and plastics [1]. - The traditional iron-based catalysts have limitations due to their multiple activities, leading to high carbon dioxide generation, which restricts carbon utilization efficiency and olefin selectivity [1]. Group 2: Innovative Strategies - The research team introduced a trace halogenated alkane co-feeding strategy, which allows for effective regulation of surface oxygen species at the molecular level, enhancing catalytic performance without altering the catalyst formulation [2]. - The strategy enables near-zero carbon dioxide emissions and high olefin selectivity, showcasing a "plug-and-play" advantage for broader applications [2]. Group 3: Future Directions - The team plans to further explore the industrial scaling and long-term stability of the halogen regulation strategy, aiming to promote its application in coal-to-liquid, natural gas conversion, and biomass utilization [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Red stars represent a predicted trending upward, green stars represent a predicted trending downward. One star means a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease but limited trading opportunities on the market. Two stars indicate a clear long/short position with an ongoing market trend. Three stars signify a more distinct long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities at present. White stars suggest a short - term equilibrium in the long/short trend and poor market operability, advising to wait and see [9] - For example, propylene, plastic, PTA, methanol, PVC, and soda ash are rated ★☆☆; polypropylene, benzene - ethylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, urea, and caustic soda are rated ★★★; glass is rated ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation in the chemical industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, cost fluctuations, and changing market expectations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contract declined. Shandong PDH plant shutdowns had limited support for supply. Supply was overall abundant, production enterprises' sales weakened, and downstream demand decreased [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts also declined. For polyethylene, cost support weakened, supply was stable, and downstream demand was average. For polypropylene, production enterprises cut prices, and downstream new orders were limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The intraday price of unified benzene fluctuated around 5400 yuan/ton, with East China spot prices and Sinopec's listed price dropping. Port inventory increased, and the load of pure benzene plants rose slightly. The market was expected to be bearish in the medium - term [3] - Styrene futures' main contract declined. New plants were in normal production, and product inflows increased. The short - term price was expected to remain weak [3] Polyester - PX and PTA prices fluctuated widely. PX and PTA supply increased, and PTA had inventory accumulation pressure. The downstream demand was expected to weaken in the medium - term [4] - Ethylene glycol's weekly output decreased slightly, but supply was expected to increase. It was expected to continue accumulating inventory in the medium - term [4] - Short - fiber had no new investment pressure, and its inventory was expected to increase in mid - to late November. Bottle - chip demand weakened, and the processing margin was under pressure [4] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures declined continuously and stabilized in the afternoon. Port inventory was high and continued to accumulate. Downstream demand was weak, and the market needed supply reduction and demand improvement [5] - Urea futures fluctuated strongly. Spot prices were stable with a slight increase. Production enterprises had slight inventory accumulation. The market was expected to continue range - bound [5] Chlor - Alkali Industry - PVC was at a low level. Enterprises' inventory increased, and social inventory decreased, but the industry's inventory pressure was still high. Supply was expected to increase, and demand was expected to decline [6] - Caustic soda continued to decline. The industry's inventory was high, downstream demand was average, and cost support weakened [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Unified soda ash fluctuated. Supply increased, and inventory was high. The consumption of soda ash decreased due to float glass shutdowns, and the price was under pressure [7] - Float glass futures declined from a high level. Production line shutdowns led to inventory reduction expectations. Cost increased, and the profit margin narrowed. The market was expected to have limited downside [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy, with a target price of 26.85 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - Baofeng Energy's performance exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 35.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.43%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 8.950 billion yuan, up 97.27% year-on-year [2][4]. - The report highlights the cost advantages of the Inner Mongolia base, which are gradually being realized, contributing to the company's strong financial performance [2][8]. - The company is positioned as a leader in coal chemical industry, with significant potential from its Xinjiang project expected to contribute approximately 12 billion yuan in net profit upon completion [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Baofeng Energy achieved a revenue of 35.545 billion yuan, with a net profit of 8.950 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.43% and 97.27% respectively [2][4]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company reported revenue of 12.725 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.49%, and a net profit of 3.232 billion yuan, up 162.34% year-on-year [2][4]. - The projected financial indicators for 2024 to 2027 show a steady growth trajectory, with total revenue expected to reach 44.896 billion yuan in 2025, and net profit projected at 11.746 billion yuan [4][9]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the price differentials for olefins may narrow in the short term due to high coal prices, but the long-term outlook remains positive as energy prices are expected to stabilize [2][8]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing development of its Xinjiang coal chemical projects, which are gaining importance in the context of energy security [2][8].