Market Overview - On December 12, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for internal strengthening to address external challenges and to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy[1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 446 points (1.8%) to close at 25,976 points, with a peak increase of 475 points during the day[1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 103 points (1.9%) to close at 5,638 points, with total market turnover expanding to HKD 242.7 billion[1] - Southbound capital experienced a net outflow of HKD 5.29 billion[1] Sector Performance - Gold prices increased, with Zijin Mining (2899 HK) rising by 3.6%, Shandong Gold (1787 HK) and Zhaojin Mining (1818 HK) both up by 3.4%[1] - Consumer stocks performed well, with Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) up 2.7%, Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) up 2.2%, and Haidilao (6862 HK) up 2.9%[1] - Technology stocks also saw gains, with Alibaba (9988 HK) and Tencent (700 HK) rising by 2.3% and 2.4%, respectively[1] U.S. Market Dynamics - Despite interest rate cuts, U.S. tech stocks continued to decline, with the Nasdaq Composite falling by 245 points (0.5%) to close at 48,458 points[2] - The S&P 500 index dropped by 73 points, closing at 6,827 points, while long-term bond yields rose to 4.189%[2] Macroeconomic Indicators - As of the end of November, China's broad money supply (M2) stood at CNY 336.99 trillion, growing by 8% year-on-year, slightly below the market expectation of 8.2%[3] - Narrow money supply (M1) reached CNY 112.89 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9%, also below the expected 5.7%[3] - The loan balance grew by 6.4% year-on-year, down from the previous 6.5%[3] Industry Insights - In the automotive sector, stocks related to smart driving performed well, with Xiaoma Zhixing (2026 HK) up 4.9% and Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) up 3.8%[4] - The energy/utilities sector saw traditional power equipment stocks rise, with Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) increasing by 16.8% over the week[4] - The pharmaceutical sector remained stable, with WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) and WuXi Biologics (2269 HK) showing solid performance despite potential regulatory challenges[5]

Group 1 - The core activity focuses on enhancing the service capabilities of futures companies to better support the real economy, particularly in the context of high precious metal prices [1] - The event highlights the shift from traditional hedging to refined management practices among local enterprises, emphasizing the importance of training in hedging business [1][2] - The Hunan Nonferrous Metals Association and the Hunan Futures Association have been promoting hedging training competitions for three consecutive years to improve risk management and practical skills in the industry [1] Group 2 - Hunan Mineral Resources Group, a leading enterprise in the local nonferrous and ferrous metals sector, has a complete production chain from exploration to delivery, with subsidiaries like Hunan Gold and Hunan Silver being publicly listed [2] - The company produces 4 to 5 tons of gold annually from its own mines and purchases an additional 50 to 60 tons, involving multiple companies in the production and delivery process [2] Group 3 - The rising gold prices have concentrated profits at the mining end, while the refining and smelting sectors receive limited benefits, primarily earning processing fees [3] - Hunan Gold Jewelry Company, a subsidiary, focuses on gold refining and processing, with significant revenue coming from the price difference between recovered gold and the Shanghai Gold Exchange benchmark [3] Group 4 - Following the gold tax reform in November, the cost of non-investment gold products has increased, while investment gold bars have seen a sales increase of over 200% month-on-month [4] - The group has been engaged in hedging activities for over a decade, with a focus on gold, silver, lead, and zinc [4] Group 5 - The group employs a segmented hedging management approach, with each segment (mining, smelting, refining) conducting its own hedging activities [5] - The company aims to manage risks while achieving operational goals, adjusting its hedging strategies based on market conditions and price forecasts [5] Group 6 - The use of options in hedging strategies has been explored, allowing the company to lower transaction costs and potentially earn premiums [6] - The event indicates a growing recognition among enterprises of the importance of refined risk management using futures and options, which is becoming essential for maintaining operational safety amid price fluctuations [6]

来源：环球网 【环球网消费报道 记者 刘晓旭】南海之滨，思想的浪潮与金色的光芒交相辉映。2025年12月12日，在 全球黄金行业聚焦的"2025中国（三亚）国际黄金市场年会"上，世界黄金协会美洲CEO兼全球研究负责 人安凯（Juan Carlos Artigas）受邀出席由中国黄金协会和世界黄金协会共同主办的2025中国（三亚）国 际黄金市场年会，并在大会期间发表题为《全球经济形势及黄金市场展望》的主旨演讲，深入剖析了全 球宏观经济环境变化下黄金市场的最新趋势与未来展望。 图片为世界黄金协会美洲CEO兼全球研究负责人 安凯（Juan Carlos Artigas） 2025年黄金市场表现突出，全球资产配置价值凸显 "2025年，是黄金市场载入史册的一年。"安凯以一句掷地有声的判断，开启了他的深度解读。安凯指 出，2025年黄金市场表现尤为突出。全年金价累计涨幅超过60%，年内创下逾50次历史新高，成为全球 主要资产类别中表现最为强劲的资产之一。推动这一轮黄金强势上涨的核心因素包括经济扩张、风险与 不确定性、机会成本以及趋势动能，这四大变量共同作用，塑造了黄金在全球资产配置中的独特地位。 中国作为全球最大的黄金 ...

观点：我们认为随着本周美联储"鹰派"降息落地后，铝价短暂走弱，但从基 本面看，本周全球铝库存总体小幅下行，LME+国内铝库存总计维持 120-125 万吨，安全库存维持低位，同时海外项目因电力问题减产+印尼增量释放缓慢 未来 2-3 年全球供需或维持紧平衡，未来库存或维持低位，对铝价形成支撑。 从金融属性看，本周国内外铜铝比创年内新高，铜铝在电力等需求有替代作用， 历史铜铝比多 3.3-3.7，意味铝仍有补涨空间，考虑美国当前铝升水接近 70%， 如果未来缺电逻辑造成美国地区减产，铝上涨弹性可能会更强。 证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20251208-20251212） 美联储"鹰派"降息落地，短期金属价格或 推荐（维持） 震荡运行 ❑ 一、工业金属 ❑ 1、行业观点 1：美联储"鹰派"降息落地，短期金属价格或震荡运行 事件：根据中新社数据，美国联邦储备委员会 10 日宣布，将联邦基金利率目 标区间下调 25 个基点到 3.5%至 3.75%之间的水平，这是美联储今年以来第三 次降息，决策过程中有三名官员投票反对。降息会议后，市场对美联储未来降 息情况仍有分歧，根据 CME"美联储观察"，截至 1 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天小睿这篇评论，主要来分析俄罗斯2300 吨黄金对内抛售，是筑金融堡垒还是耗老 本？ 手握超过 2300 吨黄金储备，俄罗斯却选择了一条特殊的路：把国库存金卖给自己人，构建不依赖西方 的金融闭环。 12 月 8 日，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克宣布计划限制金条出口，个人出境携带黄金不得超过 100 克。这一政 策背后，是俄罗斯央行已启动的黄金内循环战略，用出售储备黄金的方式填补财政缺口，而这场 "内部 交易"，正引发全球对其经济走向的热议。 内循环核心 俄罗斯的黄金内循环，核心是让黄金在国内体系内流动，不流出境外。俄罗斯央行出售的实物黄金，主 要买家是国内商业银行、国企和投资机构，交易完全在境内完成。 2025 年 10 月，圣彼得堡交易所正式启动实物黄金交易，尽管初期成交量不大，但已成为内循环的重要 交易平台。12 月初，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司通过该交易所，购入了 3 吨央行抛售的黄金，用于补 充企业资产储备。 民间狂热 这种交易模式不会影响国际黄金市场，却能让政府快速回笼卢布资金。俄罗斯财政部数据显示，2025 年 8 月国内金融机构持有的黄金规模已达 57.6 吨，成为承接官方黄金出售的核心力量 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook on industrial and precious metals, particularly gold, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, rare earths, antimony, lithium, cobalt, tantalum, and uranium, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a potential decline in the US dollar index [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have shown significant increases, with COMEX gold and silver closing at $4302.7 and $61.1 per ounce, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.1% and 4.5% respectively. The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and plans for further easing are expected to support a long-term upward trend in gold prices [2][11] - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Hunan Gold due to their potential in the rising gold market [2] Industrial Metals - Copper prices have shown mixed performance, with LME copper closing at $11552.5 per ton, down 1.05% week-on-week, while SHFE copper rose by 2.63% to 94020 yuan per ton. Supply constraints and fluctuating demand are expected to maintain price elasticity [2][3] - The report recommends monitoring companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper for investment opportunities in the copper sector [3] Aluminum - Aluminum prices have been volatile, with LME aluminum closing at $2875.0 per ton, down 0.40%. The report notes a slight increase in domestic production capacity but highlights ongoing demand resilience in sectors like automotive and electricity [3][11] - Suggested companies for investment include Nanshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao due to their positioning in the aluminum market [3] Tin - Tin prices have surged, with SHFE tin contracts reaching 332720 yuan per ton, up 5.09%. Supply disruptions from conflict-affected regions are contributing to tight raw material availability [3][8] - Companies such as Yunnan Tin and Huaxi Holdings are recommended for their potential in the tin market [8] Strategic Metals - Rare earth prices are experiencing short-term fluctuations, with significant regulatory adjustments expected to impact supply. The report anticipates a potential new price increase cycle for rare earths due to supply shortages and policy changes [9] - Companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth are highlighted as key players in this sector [9][10] Cobalt - Cobalt prices are currently around 409,000 yuan per ton, with supply constraints expected to tighten further due to export quota regulations from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The report maintains a positive outlook on cobalt prices [10] - Recommended companies include Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium for their strategic positioning in the cobalt market [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold prices have slightly increased this week, but the intensity of the increase is limited, with a higher probability of range - bound fluctuations. The 10 - year TIPS has risen to 1.93%, and the 10 - year nominal interest rate has fallen to 4.19%. The recent price correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned [4][5]. - Silver prices have fluctuated significantly this week. Although there was a small accumulation of futures inventory, the accumulation was limited, and the TD deferred fee remained in the state of short - paying - long. The overseas Lease rate rebounded moderately. The risk of short - squeeze in silver at home and abroad in December is limited, but there is a greater risk of price increase from January to March 2026. After the price recently reached $65, it may enter a shock adjustment stage [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) - **Price and Spread** - This week, London gold rose 2.45%, and London silver rose 11.02%. The gold - silver ratio fell from 72.2 last week to 66.6. The gold - silver price ranges are 950 - 990 yuan/gram for gold and 13,700 - 15,000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - Overseas, the London spot - COMEX gold主力 spread fell to - 30.515 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX gold continuous - COMEX gold主力 spread was - 27.1 dollars/ounce. The London spot - COMEX silver主力 spread rose to - 0.165 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver continuous - COMEX silver主力 spread was - 1.03 dollars/ounce [11][17]. - Domestically, the gold futures - spot spread was - 5.86 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was 29 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.28 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 7 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [23][26][30][33]. - **Inventory** - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10.66 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.7%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 115.42 tons to 137,581 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 30.3%. Domestic gold futures inventory remained unchanged, and silver futures inventory increased by 132 tons to 802 tons [42][44][48]. - **Positions** - This week, the non - commercial net - long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while the non - commercial net - long position of silver decreased slightly. The gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 2.82 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 0.2 tons. The silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 177 tons [50][53][57]. 3.2 Gold's Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned this week, and the 10YTIPS has continued to decline [66]. - Information on inflation, retail sales, non - farm employment, industrial manufacturing cycle, financial conditions, economic surprise index, and inflation surprise index is presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70][73][78][80].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have shown remarkable performance in the asset class this year, with gold prices rising by 60% and silver prices more than doubling [1]. Group 1: Precious Metal Performance - As of December 12, gold prices approached previous highs, with London gold rising by 0.47% to $4299.29 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 63.83%. In contrast, silver prices fell by 2.5% to $61.92 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 114.35% [3][4]. - The London silver market experienced a significant drop, with intraday declines exceeding 3%, and COMEX silver futures closing down by 3.88% [4]. Group 2: Institutional Outlook on Gold and Silver - Institutions continue to favor gold, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by increased demand for gold as a risk diversification tool amid global economic uncertainties [7][8]. - Carsten Menke from Swiss Bank highlighted two factors that could trigger a renewed surge in silver prices: its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list and rising market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. However, he expressed caution regarding the sustainability of silver's price increase [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The investment demand for gold is expected to remain robust against the backdrop of slowing U.S. economic growth, declining interest rates, and a weakening dollar, although gold's recent performance has lagged behind silver [7]. - The World Gold Council anticipates that ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties will continue to influence the gold market, with potential for gold prices to fluctuate within a range unless significant economic changes occur [8].

摘要随着美联储连续第三次降息25个基点，周五(12月12日)国际黄金大幅上涨，盘中触及4352.99高点， 尾盘最终报收4300美元附近。这一轮黄金行情的爆发，不仅源于美元走软和通胀压力持续，还受到了即 将公布的非农就业报告以及全球地缘政治动荡的推动，多重利好共振下，国际金价突破前期震荡区间， 4300美元整数关口成为短期市场关注的焦点。 随着美联储连续第三次降息25个基点，周五(12月12日)国际黄金大幅上涨，盘中触及4352.99高点，尾盘 最终报收4300美元附近。这一轮黄金行情的爆发，不仅源于美元走软和通胀压力持续，还受到了即将公 布的非农就业报告以及全球地缘政治动荡的推动，多重利好共振下，国际金价突破前期震荡区间，4300 美元整数关口成为短期市场关注的焦点。 【要闻速递】 黄金牛市的持续推进，核心驱动力源于美联储政策走向与市场预期的深度绑定。本周美联储会议结束 后，即便会议基调略超预期偏鹰派，市场对宽松政策的预期仍未消减，这种预期直接转化为金价上行的 推力。而这一趋势的转折点可追溯至过往政策信号的释放：2023年12月美联储首次释放2024年降息预 期，黄金价格成功突破此前三年半压制其上行的200 ...

今年以来，贵金属在大类资产中表现格外抢眼。其中，金价年内大涨60%，银价更是翻倍有余。 在连续多日上涨后，金银走势再次出现分化，银价突发剧烈调整。展望明年，机构显然更加看好黄金，高盛甚至喊出4900美 元/盎司。 相对白银，机构显然更加看好黄金。高盛认为，如果家庭或机构能够切实增加黄金持有量以作为风险分散手段，尤其是在全 球宏观经济形势充满不确定性的情况下，包括对财政前景的担忧时，那么这些资金流入可能会"大幅推高"小规模黄金市场的 价格。该行预测，到2026年底，黄金价格将达到4900美元/盎司，但同时表示，如果私营不满的购买量超出近年来一直主导需 求的央行范围，那么这一预测还将存在"显著的上涨风险"。 世界黄金协会出，2025年黄金表现卓越，全年创下逾50次历史新高，累计涨幅超60%。这一强劲表现得益于多重因素的共同推 动，包括地缘政治与经济不确定性加剧、美元走弱以及持续上涨的金价势能。投资者与各经济体央行纷纷增持黄金，以寻求 资产的多元与稳定。 黄金逼近前高 当地时间12月12日，海外贵金属市场呈现冲高回落，黄金守住涨势、逼近前高，银价收盘大跌。伦敦金当日上涨0.47%报 4299.29美元/盎司，伦敦银 ...