Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Financial Industry Convention" by WeChat Video Creation Safety Center marks a significant shift from "traffic-driven" to "responsibility-driven" content management in the financial sector on short video platforms, aiming to regulate the creation and dissemination of financial content [4] Group 1: Regulation of Financial Content - The convention will enforce strict requirements on account qualifications, content standards, and operational practices, effective from April 1, 2026 [2] - It aims to address the rise of illegal financial activities, such as unlicensed financial bloggers posing as professionals and engaging in illegal stock recommendations [2][4] - The convention establishes clear boundaries for compliant practitioners, filling a gap in the governance of financial content [4] Group 2: Account Qualification Requirements - The convention mandates that accounts claiming professional qualifications, such as "fund manager" or "insurance consultant," must complete professional or institutional certification [7] - Personal and institutional certifications will require the submission of compliance documents, with specific categories outlined for various financial professionals [7][8] - A "real-name verification" requirement ensures that the main presenter in investment-related content must be the certified individual, preventing the use of impersonation or fraudulent credentials [8] Group 3: Content Compliance and Prohibitions - The convention encourages the dissemination of objective, neutral, and fact-based financial content while prohibiting various forms of illegal stock recommendations and misleading financial practices [12][13] - Specific prohibited actions include making explicit or implicit buy/sell recommendations for individual stocks or funds, promising returns, and promoting high-risk projects like digital currencies [13] - The convention aims to eliminate practices that lead users away from the platform for private transactions, targeting the "public domain to private domain" conversion strategies used by some institutions [13][14] Group 4: Enforcement and Impact - The platform will implement a tiered response system for violations, including video restrictions, content removal, and account bans based on the severity of the infraction [14] - The convention is expected to lead to a significant reshaping of the financial content landscape, driving out unqualified bloggers and those engaging in illegal stock recommendations [14] - The focus will shift towards creators with genuine industry analysis capabilities and risk awareness, who will receive preferential treatment in terms of platform visibility and user engagement [14]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 2.15%, the S&P 500 down 1.67%, and the Dow Jones down 1.72%, marking the fifth consecutive week of declines for all indices [2][4]. - The Nasdaq's closing price was nearly 13% lower than its record high from October 2025, while the Dow fell into a correction zone, down 10% from recent highs [4]. Commodity Market Dynamics - A shift in the commodity market was noted, with both oil and gold prices rising simultaneously, contrasting the previous trend of "oil up, gold down" [5][6]. - Gold futures rose by 2.66% to $4,526 per ounce, silver futures increased by 3% to $69.97 per ounce, and U.S. oil prices surged over 7% to $101.16 per barrel [7][8]. Gold Market Insights - Analysts suggest that gold is regaining its appeal as a value investment, especially after a period of being viewed as a liquid asset amid market volatility [9]. - Deutsche Bank raised its gold price forecast for the end of the year from $4,900 to $5,000 per ounce, indicating that recent price corrections may not last [10]. Technology Sector Performance - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with the "MAG7" index dropping 2.78%. Notable declines included Amazon down nearly 4% and Meta down 3.99%, marking an 11.63% drop over two days [12][14]. - Meta's stock was pressured by legal issues and concerns over future profitability, including a $375 million fine related to child protection and potential liabilities from social media addiction cases [15]. Inflation and Geopolitical Risks - High oil prices are suppressing risk assets through both cost and expectation channels, with international oil prices reaching three-year highs amid geopolitical tensions [16][17]. - The market has abandoned expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a 54% probability of at least one rate hike anticipated [17]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to exacerbate inflation concerns, complicating the outlook for central banks globally [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: 豆一 (★★★), 豆油 (★★★), 标油 (★★★), 薬油 (★★★), 豆粕 (★★★), 菜粕 (★★★), 玉米 (★★★), 生猪 (★★★), 鸡蛋 (★☆☆) [1] Core Views - The prices of domestic soybeans are weak, and the marginal supply will increase due to the continued auction next week. The futures contract is likely undergoing a rollover operation. The price guidance needs to focus on the impact of the Middle - East situation on energy prices, as well as macro - expectations and capital trends [2]. - The international crude oil price fluctuates greatly. The planting area and inventory of US soybeans are expected to increase. The soybean and soybean meal market needs to pay close attention to multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation, energy and fertilizer markets, Trump's visit to China, and climate changes [3]. - The prices of soybean oil and palm oil rise following the increase in crude oil prices. The Middle - East situation affects the biodiesel market, and the supply chain risk of agricultural products is uncertain. The price guidance depends on the Middle - East situation, macro - expectations, and capital trends [4]. - The vegetable oil and meal market shows an oil - strong and meal - weak trend. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to be abundant, and the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - The Dalian corn futures continue to fluctuate weakly. The increase in the auction volume of state - supported wheat may impact corn prices [7]. - The spot price of live pigs continues to decline, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The medium - term reversal of pig prices is difficult to achieve [8]. - The spot price of eggs generally rises. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans decline, and the marginal supply will increase due to the auction. The futures contract may be rolling over. The price is affected by the Middle - East situation and macro - factors [2]. - The international crude oil price fluctuates, and the US soybean planting area and inventory are expected to increase. Multiple factors affect the soybean and soybean meal market [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The prices rise with the increase in crude oil prices. The Middle - East situation affects the biodiesel market, and the supply chain risk of agricultural products is uncertain [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The market shows an oil - strong and meal - weak trend. The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to be abundant, and the oil - meal ratio is expected to fluctuate at a high level [6]. Corn - The Dalian corn futures fluctuate weakly. The increase in wheat auction volume may impact corn prices [7]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs declines, and the industry's over - capacity needs to be reduced. The medium - term reversal of pig prices is difficult [8]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs rises. The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline, and a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended [9].

Group 1: Report Information - The report is about the weekly inventory of manganese ore at Tianjin Port (Tianjin Zhenhong's scope) [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - Total inventory as of March 27, 2026, is 722,160 tons, with last week's inventory at 284,349 tons,出库 at 3,310,149 tons,入库 at 437,810 tons, and a change of 3,594,498 tons [2] - Inventory by origin: Gabon has 171,300 tons, Australia 420,912 tons, South Africa 374,642 tons, Ghana 163,038 tons, and other origins 215,572 tons [2] - Inventory changes by origin: Gabon has a 10.89% change, Australia 10.42%, South Africa -46,270 tons, Ghana 64.88%, and other origins 7.98% [2] Group 3: Graphs - There are graphs showing the inventory,出库, and入库 of Tianjin Zhenhong's manganese ore, including oxidation ore (Gabon + Australian ore), South African semi - carbonate powder lumps, and Ghanaian ore over different years [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the polyethylene futures fluctuated widely with oil prices this week. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the L2605 contract closed at 8,868 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from last week's closing price [6]. - On the supply side, multiple plants such as Zhonghan Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Tarim Petrochemical were shut down for maintenance this week. PE production decreased by 4.78% week-on-week to 632,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.83% week-on-week to 76.24% [6]. - On the demand side, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 2.2% week-on-week. Among them, the operating rate of agricultural film increased by 3.4% week-on-week, and the operating rate of packaging film increased by 1.7% week-on-week [6]. - In terms of inventory, the inventory of production enterprises increased by 3.45% week-on-week to 587,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.98% week-on-week to 607,100 tons [6]. - In terms of cost and profit, the cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 1.94% week-on-week to 10,374 yuan/ton, and the oil-based profit increased by 46 yuan/ton to -1,802 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 1.45% week-on-week to 6,637 yuan/ton, and the coal-based profit increased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton [6]. - Looking ahead, the PE maintenance plan has increased compared with the previous period, and the industry supply pressure is expected to continue to ease. The downstream peak season continues, but product enterprises make rigid purchases at high raw material prices, and the demand side weakens. The domestic supply and demand are in a stalemate. The inventory is neutral. On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East still disturbs oil prices; the supply of raw materials such as ethylene in Asia is difficult to recover in the short term, and the ethylene price is unlikely to fall. Currently, the basis of the 05 contract is neutral. Considering comprehensively, LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the latest developments in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Technically, L2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 8,330 and the previous high pressure around 9,520 [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Price: Affected by the repeated geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the polyethylene futures fluctuated widely with oil prices this week. As of the close on March 27, 2026, the L2605 contract closed at 8,868 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from last week's closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply - Multiple plants were shut down for maintenance, PE production decreased by 4.78% week-on-week to 632,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.83% week-on-week to 76.24%. Demand - The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 2.2% week-on-week, with the agricultural film operating rate up 3.4% and the packaging film operating rate up 1.7%. Inventory - The inventory of production enterprises increased by 3.45% week-on-week to 587,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.98% week-on-week to 607,100 tons. Cost and profit - The cost of oil-based LLDPE increased by 1.94% week-on-week to 10,374 yuan/ton, and the oil-based profit increased by 46 yuan/ton to -1,802 yuan/ton; the cost of coal-based LLDPE increased by 1.45% week-on-week to 6,637 yuan/ton, and the coal-based profit increased by 19 yuan/ton to 1,849 yuan/ton [6]. - Outlook: The PE maintenance plan has increased, supply pressure is expected to ease. The downstream peak season continues, but demand weakens. The inventory is neutral. The Middle East geopolitical situation disturbs oil prices, and ethylene prices are unlikely to fall. The 05 contract basis is neutral. LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the Middle East geopolitical situation. Technically, L2605 should pay attention to the previous low support around 8,330 and the previous high pressure around 9,520 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Futures price and trading volume: The L2605 fluctuated widely this week, and the weekly trading volume increased slightly [7]. - Open interest and warehouse receipts: The open interest of the 05 contract decreased week-on-week, and the number of registered warehouse receipts decreased week-on-week [12]. - Monthly spreads: The 9 - 1 monthly spread increased slightly, the 1 - 5 monthly spread increased slightly, the 5 - 9 monthly spread fluctuated and declined, and the L - PP spread fluctuated and declined [17][24]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Domestic LLDPE prices ranged from 8,630 to 9,310 yuan, and the CFR China quotation was 1,078 US dollars/ton [29]. - The main basis fluctuated widely [34]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Ethylene price: The RMB price of ethylene increased week-on-week [38]. - Ethylene production and imports: In December, ethylene production increased month-on-month and year-on-year. In January, ethylene imports were 292,200 tons, and in February, ethylene imports were 180,200 tons [41]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Supply: In February, polyethylene production was 2.9059 million tons, a month-on-month decrease. This week, the PE capacity utilization rate decreased week-on-week [46][52]. - Cost and profit: This week, the cost of oil-based LLDPE and coal-based LLDPE increased week-on-week, and the profit of oil-based LLDPE and coal-based LLDPE increased week-on-week. The LLDPE US dollar price increased, and the import profit fluctuated widely [58][64][70]. - Inventory: This week, the inventory increased week-on-week, and the total inventory pressure was not large [76]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Situation - Demand - Downstream prices: The prices of PE downstream products remained stable this week [80]. - Downstream operating rate and plastic product production: The average downstream operating rate increased by 2.2% week-on-week. From January to February 2026, the cumulative production of plastic products increased by 5.20% year-on-year. The operating rate of agricultural film and packaging film increased, and the operating rate of pipes increased. From January to February 2026, the export value of plastic products increased by 25.70% year-on-year [83][88][92]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20-day historical volatility of polyethylene was reported at 54.76%. The implied volatility of at-the-money call and put options was around 51.52% [95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US President's attempt to suppress Brent crude oil below $110 through social media is losing effectiveness, and oil prices may get out of control [4]. - The control of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial in the "ultimate battle" in the Middle East. If Iran retains control, the US may be seen as losing; if the US secures passage, it will strengthen its global leadership. Any threat to the strait's passage can impact the global energy supply, financial markets, trade system, and geopolitical landscape [7]. - Middle - East peace talks are likely to fail, and the battle for the Strait of Hormuz is likely to escalate. Short - term market rebounds may occur, and investors can reduce positions during rebounds. The neckline positions of the previous platforms of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices are strong resistance levels [18]. - China has ended deflation and entered an inflationary phase, with increases in core CPI, PPI, and PPIRM [20][22][24]. - US two - year and ten - year Treasury bonds are facing selling pressure, and gold has fallen unexpectedly, indicating a spread of liquidity risk [44][48][50]. - US stocks are the biggest risk source, and the deterioration of the Middle - East situation will accelerate institutional distribution [52]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Geopolitics - The US President's measure to suppress oil prices is losing effect, and the price of crude oil may be out of control [4]. - The control of the Strait of Hormuz is a key factor in the Middle - East situation. Any threat to its passage can have far - reaching impacts [7]. - Iran claims sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, separates its passage rights from cease - fire negotiations, and plans to levy tolls on passing ships [8]. - The conflict between the US and Iran may continue until June with a 40% probability. If so, oil prices may exceed $200, and US gasoline may reach $7 per gallon. The release of strategic oil reserves by the IEA may not be sufficient to fill the supply gap caused by the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz [18]. Stock Market and Index - High inflation expectations are negative for growth - style indices. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices have broken through their platform levels, and the Shanghai Composite Index has 4000 points as a strong resistance area after breaking through it [12][15]. - The two - margin balance remains stable, and the number of new A - share accounts opened in February was 2.52 million [27]. - For stock index trading, investors can open short positions in stock index futures at the neckline positions of the previous platforms of the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices, and buy out - of - the - money put options on the CSI 1000 index at high rebound levels [18][19]. - High inflation is negative for growth - style indices. Investors can conduct long - short arbitrage by buying the CSI 300 index and selling the CSI 1000 or CSI 500 index [58][61]. Macroeconomic Indicators - In February, China's core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year and 0.7% month - on - month, ending deflation and entering inflation [20]. - In February, China's PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the PPIRM increased by 0.7% month - on - month, indicating an upward trend in prices [22][24]. - China's exports in January and February were $356.7 billion and $299.8 billion respectively, with a year - on - year growth rate of 39.6% in February, which is related to seasonal factors and the enhanced competitiveness of Chinese electromechanical products [30]. - From January to February, manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.02 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.1%, and infrastructure investment was 1.85 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.7%. Real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, but the decline has significantly narrowed [33][36][39]. - From January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year - on - year, with a 2.5% increase in commodity sales, indicating a recovery in consumption [42]. Bond and Gold Markets - US two - year Treasury bonds are continuously falling, and the yield has reached 3.96%, higher than the federal funds rate, indicating a serious liquidity shortage. The ten - year Treasury bond yield has reached 4.42%, exceeding the critical point, with heavy selling pressure [44][46][48]. - Gold has fallen unexpectedly, indicating that institutions are selling gold to obtain liquidity, and the liquidity risk is spreading [50].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly inventory report of manganese ore at Tianjin Port (Tianjin Zhenhong's caliber) [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - Total inventory this week is 722,160 tons, last week was 284,349 tons,出库 was 3,310,149 tons,入库 was 437,810 tons, and the change was 0 tons [2] - For Gabon, inventory this week is 171,300 tons, last week was 220,307 tons,出库 was 215,500 tons,入库 was 44,200 tons, and the change rate is 10.89% [2] - For Australia, inventory is 420,912 tons, and the change rate is 10.42% [2] - For South Africa, inventory is 374,642 tons, the change is -46,270 tons [2] - For Ghana, inventory this week is 163,038 tons, last week was 194,088 tons,出库 was 2,331,962 tons,入库 was 2,275,829 tons, the change is 56,133 tons, and the change rate is 64.88% [2] - For others, inventory this week is 215,572 tons, last week was 312,572 tons,出库 was 286,686 tons,入库 was 168,500 tons, the change is 118,186 tons, and the change rate is 7.98% [2] Group 3: Graphical Data - There are graphical data showing the inventory,出库, and入库 of Tianjin Zhenhong's manganese ore, including total, oxidized ore (Gabon + Australian ore), South African semi - carbonated powder lumps, and Ghanaian ore from 2023 - 2026 [3][4][5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, with the T2606 contract rising 0.08% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. Overseas, the yields of US, German, and Japanese 10Y treasury bonds all increased. Looking ahead, there is still room for the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. Financial market volatility has increased, which still provides some support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. However, with the recovery of price data, the sharp rise in commodity prices such as crude oil, and the Fed's hawkish stance, long - term treasury bond futures prices are expected to continue to face pressure [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of TS2606, TS2609, TF2606, TF2609, T2606, T2609, TL2606, and TL2609 all rose, with increases of 0.02%, 0.02%, 0.06%, 0.07%, 0.08%, 0.07%, 0.22%, and 0.25% respectively. The trading volumes were 29546, 249, 54741, 1881, 61096, 2343, 76447, and 5706 respectively, and the changes in positions were - 1818, 26, - 2552, 170, 1106, 287, 1634, and - 169 respectively [2] - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 0.3bp, DR007 interest rate rose 0.71bp, and GC007 interest rate rose 0bp [2] - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 0.84bp to 1.82%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 43.43bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield rose 9bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield rose 5bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1.9bp [2] 3.3 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 26, the central bank carried out 224 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 211 billion yuan [3] - **International Events**: US President Trump will visit China from May 14 to 15; he postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days; Iran rejected the US cease - fire proposal [3] - **Budget Information**: In 2026, the central budget has 49 new specific items, and the proportion of performance target disclosure of each department will not be less than 60% [3] - **Economic Forecast**: The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027. The US economic growth rate will slow from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the eurozone economic growth rate will drop to 0.8% in 2026 and rebound to 1.2% in 2027 [3] - **Korean Treasury Bond Repurchase**: The Korean Ministry of Finance will repurchase 5 trillion won (about $3.3 billion) of treasury bonds in two batches [3] 3.4 Industry Information - **Money Market Interest Rates**: On March 26, most money market interest rates rose. The 1 - day silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted average interest rate was flat at 1.3205%, the 7 - day interest rate dropped 0.09bp to 1.4437%, and the 14 - day interest rate dropped 0.55bp to 1.4952%. The 1 - day silver - deposit inter - bank lending weighted average interest rate rose 0.11bp to 1.3368%, the 7 - day interest rate rose 1.96bp to 1.483%, and the 14 - day interest rate dropped 1.93bp to 1.5379% [3] - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: US Treasury bond yields rose collectively. The 2 - year yield rose 10.67bp to 3.988%, the 3 - year yield rose 10.52bp to 3.987%, the 5 - year yield rose 11.62bp to 4.093%, the 10 - year yield rose 8.34bp to 4.414%, and the 30 - year yield rose 3.68bp to 4.935% [3] 3.5 Comment and Strategy - The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net investment of 211 billion yuan, and the MLF was increased for 13 consecutive months. Shibor showed mixed trends, and the capital market remained relatively stable. The Middle East situation was tense, pushing up inflation expectations and increasing financial market volatility. The main economic indicators showed an obvious recovery, and the national economy had a good start. The central bank will continue to use various monetary policy tools to maintain liquidity. There is still room for the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. Short - term treasury bond futures prices are still supported, while long - term treasury bond futures prices are expected to face pressure [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices declined collectively this week, and the four stock - index futures also weakened. Large - cap blue - chip stocks were weaker than small and medium - cap stocks, with CSI 500 being the most resilient. The market was in a macro - data vacuum period and showed wide - range fluctuations due to the changing overseas geopolitical conflict situation. Market trading activity further declined compared to last week [6][98]. - Overseas, Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days and denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran. Iran has organized over a million people for ground combat, and the Iranian situation remains severe with mixed news [98]. - Domestically, in January - February 2026, China's industrial added value above designated size, fixed - asset investment, social retail sales, imports and exports, and inflation data all significantly rebounded compared to the previous period, and the national economy had a good start. From the disclosed 2025 annual reports of listed companies, among the four broad - based indices, except for the Shanghai 50 where the net - profit growth rate accelerated while the revenue growth rate declined, the revenue and net - profit growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all accelerated [98]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The weekly and Friday price changes, and closing prices of four stock - index futures (IF2606, IH2606, IC2606, IM2606) and four spot indices (CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) are presented. For example, IF2606 had a weekly decline of 1.32% and a Friday increase of 0.72%, with a closing price of 4427.4 [9]. 3.2 News Overview - Trump threatened to attack Iranian power plants, and Iran responded with counter - measures, which would lead to a long - term increase in oil prices and was considered a negative factor for the market. The US proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran, which was seen as a positive factor. Iran stated that there was no negotiation with the US and put forward its own 5 - condition cease - fire requirements, a negative factor. Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days, a positive factor. Iran organized over a million people for ground combat, a negative factor [12]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data 3.3.1 Domestic and Foreign Indices - Domestic major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, etc. showed different degrees of decline this week. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a weekly decline of 1.09% and a Friday increase of 0.63%, with a closing price of 3913.72. Among foreign indices, the S&P 500 had a weekly decline of 0.45% and a Thursday decline of 1.74%, with a closing price of 6477.16 [15][16]. 3.3.2 Industry Sector Performance - Most industry sectors declined. Non - bank finance, computer and other sectors weakened significantly, while non - ferrous metals, public utilities and other sectors led the gains. Industry main - force funds generally had a net outflow, with significant net outflows in the electronics, computer, and power equipment sectors, and only the building materials and non - ferrous metals sectors had a slight net inflow [19][23]. 3.3.3 SHIBOR Short - term Interest Rate - SHIBOR short - term interest rates declined, indicating a relatively loose overall capital situation [27]. 3.3.4 Other Data - This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 2.161 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted - share unlock was 81.626 billion yuan, and the total trading volume of northbound funds was 1.164626 trillion yuan. The basis of the IF and IC main contracts fluctuated and converged, the basis of the IH main contract fluctuated and widened, and the basis of the IM main contract fluctuated [31][39][42][45][48]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Although the domestic economic fundamentals in February were strong and the disclosed 2025 annual reports of listed companies were generally good, the overseas geopolitical situation remained uncertain. The US frequently signaled to end the war but was repeatedly denied by Iran, adding great uncertainty to the market. Therefore, caution is still needed before the war officially ends [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the macro - environment, including China's economic situation, global central bank policies, and the geopolitical situation of the Iran war, and also conducts in - depth research on the precious metals market. It concludes that the US economy may face recession risks due to the Iran war, and the precious metals market will be affected by factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical risks, with gold prices expected to first decline and then rise, and the gold - silver ratio having further upward space [27][40][53]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - **China's economic performance**: In early 2026, China's economy had a good start. In January - February, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, with manufacturing investment up 3.1% and infrastructure investment up 11.4%, while real estate investment shrank by 11.1%. Social消费品 retail sales increased by 2.8% year - on - year. Industrial output increased by 6.3% year - on - year, with mining, manufacturing, and public utilities all showing growth. The real estate market continued to decline, with new construction, completion, sales area, and sales volume all shrinking. International trade improved, with exports increasing by 21.8% year - on - year and the trade surplus increasing by 26.3%. CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI shrank by 0.9% year - on - year [4][5][7][15]. - **Financial and fiscal situation**: In February, M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and social financing stock increased by 8.2% year - on - year. From January - February, the general fiscal revenue shrank by 1.4% year - on - year, and the general fiscal expenditure increased by 6.1% year - on - year, with the general fiscal deficit rate possibly reaching 10.8% [20]. 3.1.2 Policy - From 2024 to 2025, most central banks globally cut interest rates. By the end of 2025, the net interest - rate cut ratio of global central banks weighted by economic scale reached 86.4%. In 2026, the four major central banks of the US, Europe, China, and Japan increased their total assets, and the broad - money supply of the four major economies increased by 19.8% year - on - year. However, since mid - March, due to concerns about the long - term Iran war and rising inflation, global central bank tightening concerns have suddenly increased. The Reserve Bank of Australia, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve have all shown tightening stances [21][22][24]. 3.1.3 Geopolitics - The Iran war has a long - term risk. Since 2018, the US has unilaterally withdrawn from the JCPOA and imposed sanctions on Iran. In early 2026, the US and Israel launched air strikes on Iran, and Iran counterattacked. As of late March, the situation has been tense, with the US considering various military options, and Iran insisting on ending the war on its own terms. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global energy trade, and the international community has taken some measures to relieve the energy crisis, but the effect is limited. The war may lead to a global economic recession [28][30][37]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - US Treasury yields first declined and then rebounded. The 2 - year and 10 - year yields fell to 3.38% and 3.97% on February 27 and then rebounded to 3.96% and 4.42% respectively. The US dollar index first declined and then rose. It is expected that US Treasury yields will first rise and then fall, and the US dollar index will continue to decline after short - term fluctuations [41][42]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be strong but with limited appreciation space, with pressure levels at 6.8 and 6.67 [45]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - In the spot market, gold and silver ETF holdings first increased and then decreased. As of March 26, SPDR gold holdings decreased by 4.4% from the peak at the end of February, and SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 7.2% from the peak at the end of January. In CFTC positions, institutions are more optimistic about gold but cautious about silver [46][47]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, gold is in a bull market due to geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system. In the medium - term, gold is also in a bull market due to global central bank easing. In the short - term, gold has undergone a three - wave adjustment since the end of January 2026 and may face further downward pressure before the risk of "high oil prices - rising inflation - central bank tightening" is fully priced in. However, it is expected to strengthen again after the transition from stagflation trading to recession trading. The gold - silver ratio is expected to rise further, with the upper pressure range at 70 - 80 [50][53]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - related Charts - The gold - silver ratio in London and Shanghai has changed. The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar index has weakened, the negative correlation between gold and US Treasury real yields has strengthened, the positive correlation between gold and crude oil has significantly weakened, and the positive correlation between gold and silver has also weakened [54].