1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - Valuation shows marginal profit gradually recovering, with synchronized contraction in PP and PE supply - demand, inventory accumulation, and a weak demand trend. PP maintenance has peaked, while PE maintenance first rises then falls. There are few import offers, and some Middle - East devices are shut down due to power issues. There will be a seasonal recovery in demand at the end of July. There is a risk of capacity withdrawal for devices over 20 years old. Strategy: unilateral short - term opportunity for PP with a bearish bias, and range - bound buying for PE [2] Methanol Industry - Inland prices fluctuate slightly. Supply has high maintenance losses in July but with expected复产. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season of downstream industries, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens. Overseas Iranian device production is back, with expected imports of 125 million tons in July and a slight decline in August. After MTO profit repair, maintenance is uncertain. There will be inventory accumulation from July to August, and prices are weak [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improves in July. Although there are production news releases, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene. With high import expectations and high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. However, it may be boosted in the short - term, but the rebound space is limited. For styrene, the industry profit is maintained, and the operating rate is high. The supply - demand margin is repaired, but the supply - demand outlook is weak, and port inventory increases. It is boosted in the short - term but has limited upside [7] Polyester Industry Chain - In July, the PX supply - demand is good overall. Although some factory loads fluctuate, the overall supply impact is limited. Downstream PTA has increased maintenance expectations after significant processing fee compression, and terminal demand feedback is negative. PX demand support is weak. Considering new PTA capacity, the PX supply - demand outlook is tight, and PXN has some support. It may be boosted in the short - term but is restricted by demand and oil price expectations. For PTA, the load is around 80%, and with new device expectations and weak terminal demand, the supply - demand outlook is weak. It may be supported in the short - term by market sentiment. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand and price trends are analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The upper pressure comes from US tariff threats and EU sanctions on Russia, while the lower support is from the diesel fundamentals. Diesel cracking profit in Europe reaches a high level since 2024, indicating a tight medium - heavy crude oil structure. Refinery high - operating rates lead to counter - seasonal diesel inventory drawdown. Oil prices show a wide - range oscillation pattern, and the short - term direction depends on sanctions' impact on Russian supply and tariff risks [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - For caustic soda, the futures price is boosted by policies, and there is an expectation of industry capacity reduction. The spot trading is average, and the price in Guangdong drops. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and there is an upward price expectation in the peak season. For PVC, the futures price is also boosted by policies, but the spot market has little change. The supply - demand is in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory slightly accumulates. Short - term trading is mainly driven by macro - sentiment [36][37] Urea Industry - The core driver of the urea futures is macro - policy. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies are interpreted as beneficial for the urea industry, which may reduce large - particle supply. Although export data shows weakness, policy news boosts market sentiment. The futures price rise stimulates spot trading, and the basis has a repair expectation. In the short - term, the capacity reduction probability is low, but in the long - term, there may be a transformation in urea production capacity structure. The market should focus on export quota execution and trading expectations [41][42] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of L and PP increased on July 21 compared to July 18, with varying increase rates. The basis and price differences between different contracts also changed [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PE and PP device operating rates decreased slightly, and downstream operating rates also showed a downward trend. Inventories of PE and PP increased [2] Methanol Industry - **Prices**: Futures and spot prices of methanol changed slightly. The basis strengthened at the port, and regional price differences also had some changes [5] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply in July had high maintenance losses but with expected复产. Demand was restricted by the off - season. At the port, imports were expected to increase in July and decrease slightly in August, and there would be inventory accumulation from July to August [5] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices**: Prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased on July 21 compared to July 18, and the cash - flow and price differences also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene improved in July, but downstream price transmission was poor. For styrene, the industry profit was maintained, and the operating rate was high, but the supply - demand outlook was weak [7] Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: Prices of upstream raw materials such as oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. Processing fees and price differences also had corresponding changes [11] - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply - demand was good overall, but downstream PTA had increased maintenance expectations. For other products like MEG, short - fiber, and bottle - chip, their supply - demand situations were analyzed respectively [11] Crude Oil Industry - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC oil prices decreased slightly on July 22 compared to July 21. Price differences between different contracts and between different oil types also changed [32] - **Supply and Demand**: The upper pressure on oil prices came from macro - factors, while the lower support was from diesel fundamentals. Diesel inventory showed counter - seasonal drawdown [32] Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC futures and spot products changed on July 21 compared to July 18, and the basis and price differences also had corresponding changes [36] - **Supply and Demand**: For caustic soda, the supply - demand contradiction was limited, and for PVC, it was in an off - season with increasing supply and decreasing demand [36][37] Urea Industry - **Prices**: Spot prices of urea in different regions increased slightly on July 21 compared to July 18. The basis and price differences also changed [40] - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and the plant - level inventory decreased, while the port inventory increased [41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the product varieties in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated and declined. Iran will hold nuclear negotiations with the UK, France, and Germany on Friday. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil. In July, the operating rates of domestic refineries increased, but the overall demand for oil prices has limited driving force, and it is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contracts rose. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continued to be under pressure. The expected arrival volume from the European market in July will increase by 30 - 400,000 tons. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market faces supply pressure from stable Middle - Eastern shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to continue holding the spread short position [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract rose. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans, and some refineries in Shandong have maintenance plans. The short - term unilateral driving force of the asphalt market is not obvious, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - **Polyester**: On Monday, the main polyester contracts rose. The sales of polyester yarn in the Yangtze River Delta were average. Some synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plants restarted. The inventory in the main ports in East China decreased. The macro - environment has strengthened the expectation of industry structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity. The EG device overseas has poor recovery, and the inventory accumulation expectation is weakened. The TA supply has little change, and it follows the cost to oscillate strongly in the short term [3][4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main rubber contracts rose. The inventory in Qingdao decreased. The continuous rainfall in the main rubber - producing areas has disrupted tapping operations. The downstream tire inventory is high and stable, and the demand has improved slightly. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the changes in the external macro - environment and extreme weather such as typhoons [4]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the methanol price showed a certain pattern. The load of Iranian devices has recovered to a high point, and the arrival volume has also increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The 9 - 1 spread and basis have returned to the normal range, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [7]. - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the polyolefin price was in a certain state. Polyolefin will gradually transition to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is not prominent. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space of polyolefin is also limited [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the PVC market price increased. The enterprise start - up has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened again, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to excessive market news [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed down $0.14 to $67.20 per barrel, a decline of 0.21%. Brent September contract closed down $0.07 to $69.21 per barrel, a decline of 0.10%. SC2509 closed at 509.1 yuan per barrel, down 6.2 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.20% [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main fuel oil contract FU2509 rose 1.53% to 2924 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 rose 0.19% to 3602 yuan per ton [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract BU2509 rose 0.27% to 3657 yuan per ton [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4780 yuan per ton, up 0.76%. EG2509 closed at 4410 yuan per ton, up 0.78%. The basis increased by 14 yuan per ton to 65 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4469 yuan per ton [3][4]. - **Rubber**: The main rubber contract RU2509 rose 85 yuan per ton to 14895 yuan per ton, and the NR main contract rose 75 yuan per ton to 12750 yuan per ton [4]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang spot price was 2398 yuan per ton, the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 268 - 272 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 328 - 333 US dollars per ton [7]. - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China drawstring was 7050 - 7150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The price of the East China PVC market increased. The price of calcium carbide - based type 5 material was 5000 - 5080 yuan per ton, and the mainstream reference price of ethylene - based material was 4950 - 53000 yuan per ton [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy - chemical varieties on July 21 and July 18, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc [9]. 3.3 Market News - The lack of progress in US trade negotiations and the EU's latest sanctions have not weakened Russia's energy exports, leading to lingering concerns about crude oil demand in the market. The EU approved the 18th round of sanctions against Russia, including including the Indian Nayara Energy Company, which processes Russian crude oil, in the sanctions scope and further lowering the price cap on Russian crude oil [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Price**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [13][15][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [26][28][32]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: It provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc [39][41][44]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: It shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc [56][59]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: It presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc [62][63][65]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [68][69][70] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [73]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of WTI $70.4/barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, after the emotional boost fades, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short - position allocation within the sector [2]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom but is also restricted by high supply at the top. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [4]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term, while a neutral and quick - in - quick - out strategy is suggested for the short - term [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is mainly focused on the transition from de - stocking to re - stocking. The price will be under pressure in the future [13]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the price is likely to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand [19]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the third quarter, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has upward momentum, but the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: On July 22, 2025, WTI主力原油期货 fell $0.23, or 0.34%, to $67.07; Brent主力原油期货 fell $0.14, or 0.20%, to $69.09; INE主力原油期货 rose 6.10 yuan, or 1.15%, to 538.1 yuan. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.14 million barrels to 90.97 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.81 million barrels to 101.77 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 192.74 million barrels [1]. Chemicals Methanol - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 13 yuan/ton with a basis of - 13. The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and overseas device operating rates returned to medium - high levels. The overall demand performance was weak, and the spot valuation was still high [2]. Urea - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 67 yuan/ton to 1812 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton with a basis of + 8. The domestic operating rate declined slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizers and exports provided support [4]. Rubber - On July 22, NR and RU continued to rise strongly. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was bullish. The bullish view for natural rubber RU was based on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The bearish view was due to uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and potential under - expected production cuts [8][15]. PVC - On July 22, the PVC09 contract rose 181 yuan to 5118 yuan. The overall operating rate rose, but the downstream operating rate declined. The factory inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak, and the price would face pressure [13]. Benzene Styrene - The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The cost - end pure benzene operating rate increased, and the supply was abundant. The port inventory increased significantly, and the demand - end three - S overall operating rate rose. The price was expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. Polyolefins - **Polyethylene**: The futures price rose. The EU's sanctions on Russia affected the market. The trade - merchant inventory was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price rose. The Shandong refinery profit rebounded, and the supply was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [19]. Polyester - **PX**: On July 22, the PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6862 yuan. The Chinese and Asian operating rates were 81.1% and 73.6% respectively. The inventory was low, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It was recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [21][23]. - **PTA**: On July 22, the PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4780 yuan. The operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream operating rate declined. The supply was expected to accumulate inventory, and it was recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On July 22, the EG09 contract rose 34 yuan to 4410 yuan. The supply - end operating rate declined, and the downstream operating rate also declined. The port inventory decreased. The short - term valuation had upward momentum, but the fundamentals would turn weak [25].

| 甲醇日评20250721:短期政策预期大于基本面 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 変化值 | 2025/7/17 | 2025/7/18 | 指标 | 单位 | (绝对值) | (相对目) | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2434.00 | 2438.00 | -4.00 | -0.16% | | | | | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2364.00 | -0.04% | 2365.00 | -1.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2365.00 | 2373.00 | -0.34% | -8.00 | | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2385.00 | 2387.50 | -0.10% | -2.50 | | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2265.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | | | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2400.00 | 2385.00 | 15.00 | 0.63% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the off - season in mid - August will limit its upside potential. A short - term target price of WTI at $70.4 per barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, the upstream start - up continues to decline, and the overseas supply - side interference is gradually digested. The demand is weak overall. After the price decline, the downstream profit has slightly recovered, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short position within the sector [4]. - Regarding urea, domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers and exports is expected to increase, so the price has support at the bottom, but the upside is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [6]. - Rubber (NR and RU) has been rising strongly, and the overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. - For PVC, the supply is strong and the demand is weak. The main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has followed the rebound in the black building materials sector in the short term, it will still face pressure in the future [13]. - In the case of benzene ethylene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side. In the short term, the geopolitical impact has subsided, and the BZN spread may be repaired [16]. - For polyethylene, the EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. - For ethylene glycol, the overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: As of Friday, WTI main crude oil futures closed down $0.32, a 0.47% decline, at $67.3; Brent main crude oil futures closed down $0.42, a 0.60% decline, at $69.23; INE main crude oil futures closed up 15.20 yuan, a 2.94% increase, at 532 yuan [1]. - **Data**: European ARA weekly data shows that gasoline inventories increased by 0.53 million barrels to 10.05 million barrels, a 5.52% increase; diesel inventories decreased by 0.64 million barrels to 13.13 million barrels, a 4.66% decrease; fuel oil inventories increased by 0.03 million barrels to 6.50 million barrels, a 0.49% increase; naphtha inventories decreased by 0.52 million barrels to 5.42 million barrels, an 8.79% decrease; aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.43 million barrels to 6.36 million barrels, a 7.31% increase; total refined oil inventories decreased by 0.17 million barrels to 41.46 million barrels, a 0.41% decrease [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract fell 8 yuan/ton to 2365 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 5 yuan/ton, with a basis of +20 [4]. - **Analysis**: The upstream start - up continues to decline, and the profit slightly drops. The overseas device start - up returns to a medium - high level. The demand is weak overall, and the downstream profit has slightly recovered after the price decline, but the spot valuation is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is limited [4]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 18, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1745 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +55 [6]. - **Analysis**: Domestic start - up slightly declines, and the enterprise profit is at a medium - low level. The demand from compound fertilizers starts to pick up as they enter the autumn fertilizer production stage, and exports are still ongoing. The price has support at the bottom, but the upside is restricted by high supply [6]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have been rising continuously and strongly [8]. - **Analysis**: The overall commodity bullish sentiment is strong. The price is expected to be more likely to rise than fall in the second half of the year. The long - term bullish view is recommended for the medium - term, and for the short - term, a neutral view with quick entry and exit is suggested. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 18 yuan to 4937 yuan, the Changzhou SG - 5 spot price was 4840 yuan/ton (unchanged), the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (+18), and the 9 - 1 spread was - 119 yuan/ton (-1) [13]. - **Analysis**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall start - up rate of PVC has increased. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate has decreased. The factory inventory has decreased, while the social inventory has increased. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the market is expected to face pressure [13]. Benzene Ethylene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price and futures price of benzene ethylene have both increased, and the basis has weakened [16]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, and the supply of benzene ethylene has also increased. The port inventory has significantly increased, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side [16]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has increased [18]. - **Analysis**: The EU's sanctions on Russia may affect the price. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to fluctuate downward in July [18]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has decreased [19]. - **Analysis**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the supply of propylene is expected to increase. The demand is seasonally weak. The price is expected to be bearish in July, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Polyester PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 68 yuan to 6810 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 6 dollars to 839 dollars. The basis was 104 yuan (-15), and the 9 - 1 spread was 140 yuan (+6) [21]. - **Analysis**: The maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. The downstream PTA load is also high, and the inventory is low. It is expected to continue to de - stock in the third quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [21][22]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 30 yuan to 4744 yuan, the East China spot price rose 50 yuan to 4780 yuan, the basis was 29 yuan (+5), and the 9 - 1 spread was 52 yuan (-14) [23]. - **Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase in July with new installations and few maintenance plans, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. The demand is in the off - season and under pressure. It is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract rose 4 yuan to 4376 yuan, the East China spot price fell 4 yuan to 4433 yuan, the basis was 59 yuan (-3), and the 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan (-1) [24]. - **Analysis**: The overseas and domestic maintenance devices are gradually starting, and the downstream start - up is declining. The inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. Although the short - term valuation has upward support, the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [24].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年07月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：短期震荡偏强 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：短期震荡偏强 | | • | 本周(20250711-0717)中国甲醇产量为1869725吨，较上周减少30003吨，装置产能利用率为82.69%，环比跌1.58%。本周国内甲醇检修、减产涉及产能损失 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 量多于恢复涉及产能产出量，导致本周产能利用率下降。 | | 供应 | • | 下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量193.49万吨左右，产能利用率85.57%左右，较本期上涨。下周计划恢复涉及产能多于计划检修及减 | | | | 产涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 烯烃方面，前期检修装置维持状态，青海盐湖烯烃 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views Methanol - The inland market's maintenance has reached its peak, and there is an expectation of increased production in late July. The port market faces dual pressures: an expected arrival of 1.25 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which will weaken demand. The port will continue to accumulate inventory from July to August, but the current absolute inventory is relatively low year - on - year, with limited upside and downside space, suggesting range - bound operations [4]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly. The main logic is the weakening downstream market and the approaching end of the consumption peak season, with a possible supply surplus in the second half of the year. The EIA weekly report shows that Cushing inventory reached its highest level since June, and US distillate demand slightly declined, although crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels. In the short term, after the oil price decline, there is a high probability of a stalemate between bulls and bears. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band strategy [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Short - term downward pressure exists due to factors such as the postponement of some domestic device maintenance plans and the recovery of overseas supply. However, considering the expected commissioning of new PTA devices, the supply - demand situation is expected to remain tight, and there is support at low levels [31]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with a weakening basis. The absolute price is under pressure. Strategies include range - bound operations, short - selling above 4800, and other operations [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the EGO9 contract and pay attention to the pressure around 4400 [31]. - **Short Fiber**: The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, with limited driving forces. The absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [31]. - **Bottle Chips**: There is an expectation of improved supply - demand, but the absolute price still follows the cost side. Attention should be paid to further production cuts and downstream follow - up [31]. Polyolefins - From a supply - demand perspective, PP maintenance is gradually peaking, and PE maintenance in the second half of the month is still relatively high. It is the seasonal off - season for demand, with static supply and demand both declining, inventory accumulating, and apparent demand weakening. Dynamically, PE import offers are still scarce, and demand is expected to improve seasonally in late July. For unilateral strategies, both PP and PE lack strong driving forces, and range - bound operations are recommended. For arbitrage, take profit when LP is around 250 [35]. Urea - The futures price has recently declined. The short - term driving forces for the futures price mainly come from the seasonal weakening of demand and the increasing supply pressure, with export expectations providing partial support for large - granular urea. Agricultural demand has ended, leading to a decline in the spot trading atmosphere, which in turn drags down the futures sentiment. The supply side has a high daily output, and although maintenance has increased, the total supply is abundant, and the weak new order transactions amplify the pessimistic atmosphere. Exports only support large - granular urea locally and have limited impact on small - granular urea. It is expected that the futures price may still face pressure in the short term [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July, but due to high import expectations and relatively high port inventory, its own driving force is limited. Affected by weak oil prices and the styrene price, it may fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the main contract BZ2603 and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread [46]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak, with increasing port inventory and short - term pressure on the basis. It is under short - term pressure. Strategies include short - selling the EB08 contract, selling call options with an exercise price above 7500, and narrowing the EB - BZ spread [46]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, MA2601 closed at 2434, MA2509 at 2367, with a MA91 spread of - 67 and a Taicang basis of 11. Compared with July 15, most prices and spreads showed certain changes [2]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory was 35.234% (a decrease of 1.28% from the previous value), port inventory was 790,000 tons (an increase of 9.92%), and social inventory was 114.3% (an increase of 6.20%) [3]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: As of Thursday, the domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 72.5% (a decrease of 4.11% from the previous value), the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate was 71.1% (an increase of 11.12%), and the operating rates of various downstream devices also showed different changes [4]. Crude Oil - **EIA Weekly Data (as of July 11, 2025)**: US crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, refinery operating rate was 93.9%, crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels, and other data also showed corresponding changes [7]. - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 17, Brent was at $68.77 per barrel, WTI at $66.68 per barrel, and various price spreads also changed compared with July 16 [27]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: Various product prices in the polyester industry chain, such as PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different changes on July 16 compared with July 15, and price spreads also changed accordingly [31]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various devices in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, and MEG, showed different degrees of change on a weekly basis [31]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the closing prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509, as well as various price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [35]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PE and PP inventories showed different trends, and the operating rates of their devices and downstream industries also changed [35]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of various urea products and related price spreads and basis values showed certain changes compared with July 15 [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order days of urea showed different trends, with the factory - level inventory decreasing by 7.46% on a weekly basis [42]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, the prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products, as well as price spreads and basis values, showed certain changes compared with July 15 [46]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in the East China port showed different trends, and the operating rates of related industries also changed [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for methanol is "Bullish" [7] Core Viewpoint - The report believes that methanol will likely be in a relatively strong position in the second half of 2025. Supply - side production is less likely to exceed expectations, and there are still factors disturbing the supply such as environmental protection restrictions and geopolitical issues. On the demand side, although the prices and profits of downstream products are expected to face pressure, the high - operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Potential geopolitical disturbances and concerns about Iranian natural gas supply may affect imports and port inventories, leading to a bullish outlook [5]. Summary by Directory 1. First - half Review - In the first half of 2025 (before the Israel - Iran conflict), methanol futures prices showed an overall downward trend, mainly due to upstream cost collapse and demand - side concerns. The domestic coal price dropped from 760 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to around 620 yuan/ton at the end of June, compared with around 850 yuan/ton in the same period last year. Methanol downstream demand was weak, with the traditional demand sectors like dimethyl ether, MTBE, and BDO having a downward - trending operation rate. MTO, although with a high operation rate, was in a loss state [16]. 2. Supply - In the second half of the year, the cost side will have limited incremental impact on the overall fundamentals. Coal prices are expected to remain low, so the profit of coal - to - methanol is likely to stay high, and the operation rate will probably remain strong. The market capacity growth rate in the second half of the year is expected to be limited (about 3 - 5%). Although the probability of maintenance increases, the operation rate will still be at a high level. It is expected that the production growth rate of methanol in the second half of the year will be 4% [21][24][25]. 3. Demand - The profit of MTO is likely to face long - term pressure and fall into a difficult situation. However, MTO may continue to maintain a high operation rate in the second half of the year due to the synergistic effect of integrated plants. Traditional downstream industries have their profits compressed, which may cause a certain decline in the operation load. For example, dimethyl ether is in the stage of capacity replacement and clearance, formaldehyde is in a situation of oversupply, and MTBE has a high inventory pressure. In emerging demand, DMC's demand support may strengthen in the third quarter, and the demand for methanol as fuel is expected to expand [32][43][51]. 4. Imports - In the second half of the year, many factors may limit the overall increase in imports. Considering the uncertainty of the regional situation, seasonal gas restrictions, and plant load - reduction expectations at the end of the year, the import volume may remain at a historical low. Under the neutral assumption of geopolitical conflict alleviation, the import volume in the second half of the year is expected to reach about 6.5 million tons; under the extreme assumption of Iran completely restricting supply, the import volume may be about 3 million tons [70]. 5. Inventory - The inland inventory is expected to remain at a historical low in the second half of the year due to the increased probability of centralized maintenance and limited new capacity release. The port inventory may decline under the pressure of the import side, and the overall inventory accumulation expectation is limited. It is predicted that the year - end social inventory will be at a historical low of 2.16 million tons [74][78]. 6. Investment Advice - Methanol prices are expected to show a relatively strong and volatile performance. On the supply side, the high operation rate of coal - to - methanol is expected to continue, but the maintenance expectation may affect futures prices. On the demand side, although the profit of MTO and traditional downstream industries is under pressure, the high operation rate of MTO and the synergistic effect of integrated plants will support the overall operation rate. Considering potential geopolitical disturbances and seasonal factors, imports are likely to remain low, and port inventory accumulation is limited. The price is expected to be supported during the third - quarter maintenance period, with the lower support around 2300 yuan and the upper limit around 2600 yuan [81].