Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform the Market" rating for both Blue Moon Group and CATL, indicating expected performance above the market average [6][27][31]. Core Insights - The jewelry sector is transitioning from channel-driven to brand-driven, with a focus on product structure upgrades leading to improved gross margins [8][9]. - The pet consumption market is expanding, driven by an increase in pet ownership and a demand for higher quality products [21]. - CATL is expected to maintain strong performance with a projected net profit growth from 645 billion to 932 billion CNY over the next three years [31]. Summary by Sections Jewelry Sector - The jewelry industry is seeing a shift towards brand-driven strategies, enhancing product offerings and improving profitability [8][9]. - The report highlights that the retail sales of gold and silver jewelry have shown a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in early 2025, indicating a recovery in demand [10]. - Companies like Chow Tai Fook and Zhou Dasheng are focusing on high-quality expansion and product structure improvements to capture market share [11][12]. Pet Consumption - The pet food sector is recommended due to the growing consumer interest and spending on pet-related products, with leading companies expected to outperform the market [21]. - The report notes a significant increase in online sales and engagement in the pet product category, with a 71% year-on-year growth in pet-related live commerce [21]. Blue Moon Group - The company is projected to recover from losses in 2024, with expected net profits turning positive by 2025, supported by a strong brand presence in the cleaning products market [27]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth of 16% in 2024, driven by increased sales across all product categories [25]. CATL - CATL is projected to maintain its leadership in the global battery market, with a significant increase in production capacity and a strong pipeline of new products [31]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 645 billion CNY in 2025, with a favorable valuation range of 337.12 to 366.43 CNY per share [31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a significant rebound in the agricultural sector, with the agricultural index rising by 2.84%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industries [4][12] - The report highlights a stalemate in the supply-demand dynamics of live pigs, while the price of white chickens is rebounding [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index stands at 2556.61, with a 52-week high of 2927.53 and a low of 2110.64 [2] - The relative performance of the agricultural index shows a decline of 19% [2] Livestock Industry Tracking Live Pigs - The average price of live pigs is 14.52 yuan/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week [5][18] - The report notes that the supply of pigs is ample, with producers actively selling due to low price expectations [5][21] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages, recommending leading firms such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as smaller firms like Juxing Agriculture and Huatong Foods [21] White Chickens - The price of white feather chicken chicks has increased to 3.0 yuan/chick, with an average profit of 0.2 yuan per chick [6][28] - The price of meat chickens has risen to 3.62 yuan/kg, reflecting an increase of 8.7% [6][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic breeding and notes that the supply chain remains robust despite some fluctuations [29] Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have surged to 6130 yuan/ton, increasing by 90 yuan/ton [32] - The price of soybeans has slightly decreased to 3624 yuan/ton, down by 1.8% [34] - Cotton prices have shown minor fluctuations, currently at 14924 yuan/ton, up by 0.31% [34] - Corn prices have increased slightly to 2198 yuan/ton, up by 32 yuan/ton [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the market in the next 3 to 6 months, indicating an early stage of asset revaluation and gradual stabilization of fundamentals [3][8]. Core Insights - Economic data for January-February 2025 shows a stable start, with a year-on-year growth of 4% in retail sales, driven by online channels [3][4]. - The report highlights a recovery in the home furnishing sector starting from early March, with key recommended companies including Gujia, Xilinmen, and Sophia [3][15]. - The technology growth sectors, particularly in computing power, cloud computing, and AI applications, are identified as key investment themes [3][8]. - The bond market is expected to present trading opportunities due to anticipated monetary policy easing after the second quarter [3][10]. - The commodity market is experiencing a mild recovery, with a strong outlook for non-ferrous metals and a bearish view on black metals [3][11]. Economic Performance - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year in January-February, with infrastructure investment up by 10% and manufacturing investment up by 9% [5]. - The real estate market shows a decline in investment, with a 9.8% year-on-year drop, but new housing prices are stabilizing [5][26]. - The retail sector shows a mixed performance, with essential goods maintaining growth while discretionary items like sports and office supplies perform well [3][12]. Sector-Specific Insights - The beauty sector shows significant recovery, with online sales growth of 18% in January-February, highlighting strong performance from domestic brands [3][16][17]. - The dining and hotel industry is experiencing growth, with a 4.3% year-on-year increase in restaurant sales, although some brands face challenges [3][22][23]. - The agricultural sector, particularly in pork and poultry, is expected to benefit from policy-driven consumption recovery, with leading companies like Muyuan and Wens Foodstuffs showing improved market share [3][24][25]. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend state-owned banks and companies with stable regional economic prospects for investment [3][21]. - In the construction materials sector, companies like China National Building Material and Anhui Conch Cement are recommended due to potential price increases [3][27][28]. - For the home improvement sector, companies such as Three Trees and North New Materials are highlighted for their expected demand recovery [3][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-driven data center services industry, highlighting significant growth potential due to increased demand for AI computing power and infrastructure [14][18]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the AI revolution is driving new infrastructure investments, with major internet cloud companies and operators actively increasing their capital expenditures [18]. - It notes that the demand for Artificial Intelligence Data Centers (AIDC) is expected to rise sharply, with a projected increase in global data center IT load from approximately 49GW in 2023 to 96GW by 2026, primarily driven by AI computing needs [14][16]. - The report identifies key players in the data center services sector, including major telecom operators and third-party service providers, as well as their strategic investments in new technologies and infrastructure [17][18]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The macroeconomic report indicates a recovery in domestic demand, with industrial output increasing by 5.9% year-on-year in January-February 2025, and fixed asset investment growing by 4.1% [8][9]. - The report suggests that the Chinese economy is likely to break the negative cycle of industrial deflation and service sector contraction through fiscal expansion and structural optimization [10]. Industry and Company Analysis - The telecommunications industry is highlighted for its rapid transformation towards AI-driven data center services, with significant investments from leading companies [14][16]. - The agricultural sector shows a recovery in poultry prices, with a notable increase in white chicken prices by 9.88% week-on-week [19]. - The electronics industry is recommended for investment, particularly in the Apple supply chain and IC design sectors, as they are expected to benefit from ongoing innovation and market demand [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major telecom operators such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as leading third-party data center service providers like Runze Technology and Guanghua Data [18]. - In the agricultural sector, companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group are suggested for their potential in the recovering pork market [21]. - The electronics sector suggests investing in companies involved in AI applications and semiconductor technologies, such as MediaTek and NVIDIA, as they are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI solutions [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in the pig farming sector, specifically suggesting companies such as Wen's Foodstuffs, Tangrenshen, Juxing Agriculture, and Huatong Food, while also advising to pay attention to Xinwufeng. In the broiler farming sector, it recommends Shennong Development and suggests关注 Yisheng股份 and Hefeng股份. For the seed industry, it recommends Longping High-Tech and suggests关注 Dabeinong and Denghai Seeds. In the feed sector, it advises关注 Haida Group [3][4][39]. Core Insights - The pig farming sector has seen a recovery in prices, with the average price of live pigs as of March 14 being 14.57 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.83% and a year-on-year increase of 0.55%. The number of pigs slaughtered from March 8 to March 14 was 1.0167 million, up 3.26% week-on-week and 9.96% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1][10][25]. - In the broiler farming sector, the average price of white feather broilers reached 7.11 yuan/kg, up 7.89% week-on-week. The price of broiler chicks also increased by 9.84% to 2.79 yuan/chick. The demand for white feather chickens is primarily driven by group meals and canteens, suggesting potential price increases if demand recovers [2][11][27]. - The USDA's March report indicates an increase in global production estimates for corn and wheat, with global corn production at 1.214 billion tons and wheat production at 797 million tons. This could impact the agricultural commodity market positively [3][13][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 14.57 yuan/kg as of March 14, with a week-on-week increase of 0.83% and a year-on-year increase of 0.55%. The number of pigs slaughtered increased to 1.0167 million, reflecting a 3.26% increase week-on-week and a 9.96% increase year-on-year [1][10][25]. - The total number of pigs marketed by listed companies in February was 8.2862 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.85%, while the total for January and February was 28.9474 million, up 12.46% year-on-year [1][10]. 2. Broiler Farming - The average price of white feather broilers is 7.11 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 7.89%. The price of broiler chicks is 2.79 yuan/chick, up 9.84% [2][11][27]. - The profit for white feather broiler farming is currently negative at -0.51 yuan/chick, while parent stock profitability is slightly positive at 0.04 yuan/chick [2][11]. 3. Planting Chain - The USDA report indicates global corn production at 1.214 billion tons, with a consumption of 1.239 billion tons. For wheat, production is estimated at 797 million tons, with consumption at 807 million tons [3][13][30]. - The report also notes a decrease in China's corn import estimates by 2 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 65.83% [3][13]. 4. Feed Sector - The average price of pig feed is 2.76 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.66% [15][35]. - The total industrial feed production in 2024 was 315 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1% [16][35].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to shift from "cyclical thinking" to focusing on financial performance, highlighting the significant differences in operational efficiency among companies in the industry [5][22] - The report suggests that the current low market attention on the pig farming sector and its relatively low valuation present investment opportunities, particularly in leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [5][22] - The report indicates that the overall supply of pigs is expected to be high in the long term, leading to a weak price outlook for pigs [4][21] Summary by Sections 1.1. Swine - In February, the sample of breeding sows decreased by 0.05% month-on-month, primarily due to increased culling by leading enterprises [4][21] - The latest pig price reached 14.62 CNY/kg, with an average slaughter weight of 127.92 kg [4][21] - The report anticipates downward pressure on pig prices in the short term due to rising feed costs and increased willingness to sell among farmers [4][21] 1.2. Poultry - The price of broilers has rebounded, with chick prices increasing by 7.41% month-on-month [6][23] - The report highlights the concentration of industry profits towards upstream breeding sources, indicating a new normal in the industry [6][23] - Key investment targets include leading companies in imported breeding sources and full-chain leaders like Yisheng and Shengnong Development [6][23] 1.3. Feed - The report recommends Haida Group due to its cash flow turning point and overseas growth potential [7][26] - Fish prices have shown positive trends, with various species experiencing significant year-on-year price increases [7][24] - The report notes that the capital expansion phase has ended, and leading companies are now focusing on improving market share and cash flow [9][24] 1.4. Pets - The pet industry is expected to see significant growth driven by the post-2000 generation, with a projected doubling of market space [11][27] - The report suggests focusing on high-performing brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are entering a growth phase [11][28] 1.5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's March report indicates a continued upward trend in agricultural prices, with significant reductions in corn imports expected [13][29] - The report highlights that corn and soybean prices are at historical lows, with a marginal improvement in supply-demand balance expected [13][29] Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.59% last week, while the Agricultural Index increased by 2.84% [30][30] - The animal health sector performed the best with a 4.20% increase [30][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the pig farming sector shows value for low-positioning, with a recovery in profitability expected alongside consumer demand recovery. The current valuation of the pig farming sector is at a relatively low level, indicating potential for investment [6][25] - The report emphasizes the ongoing support for pig prices from the entry of supplementary breeding in Northeast China, which is expected to stabilize prices in the short term [4][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - Recent supplementary breeding has entered Northeast China, which may support pig prices. As of March 14, the national average price for live pigs was 14.57 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.83% [4][11] - The average daily slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 142,500 pigs, down 90 pigs from the previous week, indicating weak demand [4][11] Weekly Perspective - The pig farming sector's low-positioning value is becoming apparent, with a recovery in profitability expected as consumer demand rebounds. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [6][25] - The pet food market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 9.64% from 2025 to 2028, driven by rising consumer spending and domestic brands gaining market share [6][25] Market Performance (March 10-14) - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 1.45 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.39% and the agriculture index rising by 2.84% [31][33] - Key stocks that led the gains included Xue Rong Biological, Western Animal Husbandry, and Zhong Ji Health, with increases of 43.95%, 18.29%, and 13.13% respectively [31][35] Price Tracking (March 10-14) - The average price of live pigs was 14.65 yuan/kg, up 1.03% from the previous week. The average price of piglets was 33.87 yuan/kg, up 3.39% from the previous week [41][43] - The average price of white feather chickens was 7.11 yuan/kg, up 7.89% from the previous week, while the average price of yellow feather chickens was 10.45 yuan/kg, reflecting a price increase [40][46][47] Key News (March 10-14) - The USDA's March report adjusted global corn and wheat production upwards while lowering rice production forecasts. Corn production was increased by 1.7 million tons to 1.214 billion tons, and wheat production was increased by 3.44 million tons to 797 million tons [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [5]. Core Insights - In February 2025, the average price of live pigs decreased due to oversupply, while the price of piglets remained strong. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 36.21 CNY/kg, 16.00 CNY/kg, and 27.46 CNY/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of 6.59%, -3.68%, and -1.57% [11][16]. - The supply side is seeing a gradual recovery in post-holiday pig sales, leading to an overall sufficient market supply. However, demand has been slow to recover, with a slaughtering rate of 20.24% in February [13][19]. - The report anticipates that the pig prices in the coming months will rely on the entry of secondary fattening [13][21]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Performance - February saw a slight price adjustment in live pigs and pork due to a post-holiday consumption decline, while piglet prices showed resilience [11][16]. - The supply of pigs is expected to increase in March, putting pressure on the supply side [13][19]. Cost and Price Trends - The report highlights that the imposition of tariffs on certain imported agricultural products may lead to increased breeding costs, with expectations of a rise in costs for 2025 [16][19]. - The average sales prices for major pig farming companies in February showed a decline, with specific figures for companies like Muyuan, Wens, and New Hope [24][25]. Future Market Outlook - The report predicts that high-quality production capacity will maintain profitability in 2025, with leading companies expected to benefit from valuation recovery as consumption policies are implemented [21][33]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with cost advantages and high performance, such as Muyuan, Wens, and Tian Kang Biological [21][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [39]. Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 1.72% from February 28, 2025, to March 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 3.15 percentage points [7][8]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with animal health, feed, aquaculture, and fishery sectors increasing by 4.45%, 3.22%, 2.45%, and 0.99% respectively, while agricultural product processing and planting sectors saw declines of 0.5% and 2.11% [8][9]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is approximately 2.47 times, indicating a recent recovery and positioning at about 54.6% of the historical valuation center since 2006, which is considered historically low [12]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs fluctuated from 14.57 CNY/kg to 14.67 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2263.04 CNY/ton, showing an upward trend, while soybean meal was priced at 3470 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for self-bred pigs was 35.15 CNY/head, showing a slight increase, while the profit for purchased piglets was -34.44 CNY/head, indicating a decrease [15][16][19]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks rose by 21.4% to 2.79 CNY/chick, while the average price of layer chicks fell by 0.6% to 4.3 CNY/chick. The average price of white feather broilers increased by 14.5% to 7.11 CNY/kg, with a profit of -0.51 CNY/chick, which is an improvement compared to the previous period [21][25]. - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp remained stable at 19.66 CNY/kg and 14.21 CNY/kg respectively as of March 13, 2025 [27]. Company Insights - **Muyuan Foods (牧原股份)**: The company is recognized as a leading domestic pig farming enterprise with cost advantages and substantial cash reserves, expected to maintain its leading position [40]. - **Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份)**: The company is expanding its pig production capacity steadily and has strong cost control capabilities, maintaining its leading position in the yellow feather chicken business [40]. - **Haid Group (海大集团)**: The company is a leading player in the feed industry, with market share expected to continue to grow [40]. - **Yisheng (益生股份)**: The company is a leading enterprise in the white feather chicken breeding sector [40].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5] Core Viewpoints - In February, the average price of live pigs decreased due to oversupply, while the price of piglets remained strong. The average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork were 36.21 CNY/kg, 16.00 CNY/kg, and 27.46 CNY/kg respectively, with month-on-month changes of 6.59%, -3.68%, and -1.57% [11][16] - The supply side is seeing a gradual recovery in post-holiday slaughtering, leading to an overall sufficient market supply. The demand side is experiencing a post-holiday decline, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations [13][19] - The report anticipates that the pig price recovery in the coming months will rely on the entry of secondary fattening [13][21] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The market supply is generally sufficient, with a gradual return to normal slaughtering rates post-holiday. The average slaughtering rate in February was 20.24% [13][19] - Demand: Post-holiday demand is declining, with a slow recovery in terminal demand and slaughtering operations. The price difference between live pigs and pork is 4.53 CNY/kg, indicating weak consumer performance [13][19] Cost and Pricing Trends - The report highlights that the imposition of tariffs on certain imported agricultural products from the U.S. is expected to raise breeding costs. Tariffs include a 15% increase on wheat and corn, and a 10% increase on sorghum and soybeans [16][19] - The breeding cost for leading companies is crucial for maintaining profitability during periods of declining pig prices. Companies like Shennong Group and Wens Foodstuffs have managed to keep their breeding costs below 13 CNY/kg [33][34] Market Performance of Listed Companies - In February, the sales prices of major listed companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope were 14.76 CNY/kg, 14.96 CNY/kg, 14.35 CNY/kg, and 14.64 CNY/kg respectively, showing a month-on-month decline of 5.53%, 5.27%, 6.67%, and 5.07% [24][25] - The total slaughter volume in February showed a significant decline, with companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhengbang Technology experiencing decreases of 10.39% and 21.12% respectively [25][30] Future Outlook - The report predicts that high-quality production capacity is likely to remain profitable in 2025. The industry index PB has slightly increased but remains at a low level. The report suggests that as consumption-boosting policies are implemented in 2025, leading breeding companies are expected to see valuation recovery [21][34]