Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the full island closure operation of Hainan Free Trade Port by the State Council signifies a major step towards high-level trade liberalization and facilitation, aiming to establish Hainan as a special customs supervision area by the end of this year [1][3][5]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The full island closure will implement a management model of "one line open, one line controlled, and free within the island," allowing zero-tariff goods to move freely between Hainan and other countries while maintaining strict controls with the mainland [3][5]. - The policy aims to balance the release of openness and the maintenance of security, marking a critical advancement in China's high-level opening-up process [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Hainan, as China's largest economic special zone, is positioned to serve as a testing ground for national reform and opening-up, with the full island closure expected to significantly enhance its high-quality development [5][7]. - Over 200 supporting policy documents have been issued since the initiation of the Hainan Free Trade Port, promoting rapid development in tourism, modern services, high-tech industries, and tropical agriculture [7][9]. Group 3: Trade Facilitation - The introduction of a "prohibited and restricted import/export goods list" will clarify which goods can enter the Hainan Free Trade Port, streamlining customs processes and enhancing trade efficiency [7][11]. - The number of goods eligible for zero-tariff policies is set to increase from approximately 1,900 to about 6,600, significantly expanding the scope of zero-tariff benefits [11][13]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Logistics - The establishment of new "second line" ports, such as Haikou New Port and South Port, will facilitate efficient passage of goods and personnel between Hainan and the mainland [13][14]. - Advanced data analytics and smart regulatory systems will be employed to ensure efficient customs operations while maintaining security [13][16]. Group 5: Industry Development - Policies encouraging processing and value-added production within Hainan will allow companies to benefit from tax exemptions when exporting processed goods to the mainland [14][16]. - The collaboration between local enterprises in the chemical and industrial sectors exemplifies the potential for enhanced value creation through policy incentives [16][18]. Group 6: Societal Benefits - New tax policies for residents and adjustments to duty-free shopping are being planned to ensure that the benefits of the new policies reach the general public [18]. - The full island closure is viewed as a systemic transformation that integrates regulation, industry, and public welfare, enhancing Hainan's role in the global supply chain [18].

美国总统特朗普：日本有史以来第一次向美国开放了它的市场，甚至是汽车、SUV、卡车，以及其他一 切，甚至是农业和大米，这一直是一个完全不可能的事情。 ...

Group 1 - The trade agreement between the US and Japan was reached after eight rounds of negotiations, with significant implications for both economies [1][2] - The agreement includes a reduction of tariffs on Japanese products exported to the US from 25% to 15%, and Japan will invest $550 billion in the US, with the US retaining 90% of the profits [2][4] - Japan will open its market to US products, including automobiles, rice, and other agricultural goods, which indicates a major concession from Japan [2][4] Group 2 - In the short term, the agreement is seen as a relief for Japan, particularly for its automotive industry, which exports 1.37 million vehicles to the US, accounting for 34% of Japan's total exports to the US [4] - Following the announcement, the Nikkei 225 index surged by over 800 points, closing up 1,396.40 points or 3.51%, indicating increased market confidence [4] - However, the long-term implications suggest that Japan's concessions may lead to significant fiscal pressure and potential hollowing out of domestic industries as companies shift operations to the US [4][5] Group 3 - The trade agreement may alter the competitive landscape for China, as Japan's increased imports of US agricultural products could reduce its imports from other countries, including China [7] - Japanese companies may invest more in the US to avoid tariffs, potentially decreasing their investments in China, which could impact China's related industries [7] - The strengthened supply chain cooperation between Japan and the US in sectors like semiconductors and steel may marginalize Chinese industries, leading to challenges in stability and upgrading of China's industrial chain [7][8]

特朗普宣布协议后不久，日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽良生发文，对"所有相关人员表示由衷感谢"，并附 上"任务完成"的标签。日本首席贸易谈判代表赤泽亮正表示，"我们保护了需要保护的东西，我们能够 达成对两国都有利的协议。" 日本首相石破茂称，与美国就向美方日本征收15%的关税达成一致。日美双方就通过日本企业在半导 体、钢铁、造船、能源、汽车等领域的投资，加强与美方供应链合作、保障经济安全，达成一致。石破 茂表示，在日本现行的大米"最低准入制度"下，增加从美国进口大米的比例。此举不会牺牲日本农业。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周三（7月23日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3421.86美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报 3423.40美元/盎司，跌幅0.23%，最高上探3438.54美元/盎司，最低触及3421.39美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向看跌走势。 今日周三（7月23日)亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3421.86美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金暂报3423.40美 元/盎司，跌幅0.23%，最高上探3438.54美元/盎司，最低触及3421.39美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向看跌走势。 【要闻速递】 上午 ...

近期，全国多地发生持续强降雨，一些地方还出现了洪涝灾害，在给广大人民群众带来重大生命财产损 失的同时，也给生态环境带来了影响。目前正值汛期，各地应高度重视防范极端天气条件下的环境污染 风险。 一方面，要从面上认真查找，做好防范和加固工作。比如，针对河流沿岸、山体周边、道路两侧、化工 园区等区域，要准确识别潜在的环境风险并及时整改。另一方面，要从点上精准查找，扎实开展防治工 作，并完善应急预案，做好应急准备。比如，聚焦重点化工企业、尾矿库、危险废物集中场所、煤矸石 与粉煤灰堆场、污水处理厂、规模化畜禽养殖场，以及集中式饮用水水源地等，要邀请有经验的专家集 中诊断生态环境风险，开出治理药方，压实各方责任，督促整改到位。 防范极端天气条件下的环境污染风险是件大事情，容不得有半点松懈，必须抓紧抓实抓好。陕西每年在 汛期来临之前和主汛期间，都要开展上下贯通、覆盖全面的生态环境风险隐患大排查行动。在此基础 上，省内各市还会根据本地区极端天气致害类型与自身环境风险特征，组织开展针对性更强的专项排查 整治。 例如，陕北地区针对油气生产、煤炭开采、大型化工企业，开展暴雨、强风状态下的环境风险排查。而 陕南地区则重点围绕暴雨和持 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan and the United States have reached an agreement on tariffs, with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on Japanese goods and increasing rice imports from the U.S. [1] Group 1: Tariff Agreement - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, which includes a 12.5% tariff on automobiles, combining with a previous 2.5% tariff for a total of 15% [1] - The steel and aluminum tariffs will remain at the current rate of 50% [1] Group 2: Economic Cooperation - Japan and the U.S. have agreed to enhance supply chain cooperation and economic security through investments by Japanese companies in sectors such as semiconductors, steel, shipbuilding, energy, and automobiles [1] - Japan will increase the proportion of U.S. rice imports under its current minimum access system, ensuring that this will not harm Japanese agriculture [1] Group 3: Trade Relations Context - Japan is a major trading partner of the U.S., and previous trade tensions have arisen over trade deficits, exchange rates, and automobile market access [1] - The recent agreement follows a letter from former President Trump announcing a significant increase in tariffs on nearly all Japanese goods starting August 1 [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable in the short term, with an expected operating range of 7.15 - 7.20 this week [1]. - The stock index is expected to continue to strengthen as various sentiment indicators are positive [2]. - Treasury bond trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy to be fully implemented after important meetings. There may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market after the policy is implemented and emotions are released [2][3][4]. - The shipping index (European line) futures prices may continue to oscillate and decline slightly. Attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. - Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term but may face risks in the medium term. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. Zinc is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and decline in the long term. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by macro - emotions, and the trend needs to pay attention to the fermentation of macro - emotions. Tin prices are expected to follow the overall trend of the non - ferrous sector in the short term, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time. Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, and there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads. Lead is expected to oscillate [6][7][8][9][10][11][13][14][15][16][17][19][21][22]. - The steel and hot - rolled coil market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant. Iron ore is driven by expectations, and its price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting. Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of 9 - 1 reverse spreads. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. - Crude oil is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline. PX - PTA and MEG - bottle chips are driven by the "anti - involution" policy and are expected to run strongly in the short term. Methanol is recommended to be observed. PP and PE are affected by the cost side and macro - policies, with resistance to price increases and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern respectively. PVC is affected by the "anti - involution" emotion and is recommended to avoid risks. Fuel oil is in a weak adjustment, low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure and should be observed, asphalt is adjusted weakly following the cost side, and urea is expected to oscillate strongly [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53]. - Soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and glass is expected to remain strong. Logs have a relatively independent market, and pulp may break through and can be cautiously chased long if it breaks through effectively. Caustic soda is at a high level, and attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [54][55][57][59][60]. - For agricultural products, live pigs are recommended to be shorted at high prices and appropriate reverse spreads can be arranged. Oilseeds are recommended to be long - allocated in the far - month contracts. Corn and starch are expected to oscillate narrowly. Cotton is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. Sugar is under short - term pressure. Apples are expected to oscillate in the short term [62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - Yesterday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1756 at 16:30, up 12 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1695 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1460, up 62 basis points [1]. - The current market has no obvious expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and the foreign exchange market transactions are rational and orderly. The external environment shows that the rapid depreciation stage of the US dollar index is likely to have ended, but the overall weak trend is expected to continue. Domestically, the central bank is likely to continue to adhere to the regulatory philosophy of "bottom - line thinking + discretionary decision - making" [1]. Stock Index - Yesterday, the stock index continued to strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1930.58 billion yuan. The futures index increased in volume. Affected by the anti - involution policy and the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, the water conservancy, steel, and building materials sectors led the rise [2]. - With positive sentiment indicators and relatively calm news, the stock index is expected to continue to strengthen [2]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures opened strongly, oscillated narrowly, then dived and closed down. The short - end was relatively strong, and the liquidity improved, with the capital interest rate returning to the key level of 1.3% [2]. - With the strong performance of risk assets and the decline of treasury bond futures prices, trading desks are advised to temporarily stop losses and wait for the details of the anti - involution policy. After the policy is implemented and emotions are released, there may be a configuration opportunity for the bond market [2][3][4]. Container Shipping - Yesterday, the prices of container shipping index (European line) futures contracts oscillated downward. Affected by commodity emotions, they rebounded slightly and then continued to decline [4]. - On July 31, the total quote of Maersk's 20GP from Shanghai to Rotterdam increased by $10 compared with the previous value, and the 40GP increased by $20. On August 7, the opening quotes of 20GP and 40GP decreased compared with the previous week [4]. - The futures price is expected to continue to oscillate and decline slightly, and attention should be paid to the actions of other shipping companies and the changes in the spot quotes of European lines [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Shanghai Copper Index maintained a high - level oscillation on Tuesday. The anti - involution policy has an impact on the non - ferrous metal sector. Copper may be slightly stronger in the short term, but there are hidden risks in the medium term [6][7]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The price of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.75% on the previous trading day, and the price of alumina increased by 6.07%. The price of casting aluminum alloy increased by 0.90%. Aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level, alumina to run strongly, and casting aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level [8][9][10][11]. - **Zinc**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc increased by 0.01% on the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to change from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices in the short term and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [11][13]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel increased by 1.52% during the day, and the main contract of stainless steel increased by 0.47%. The current market is mainly affected by macro - emotions, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly [15]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai Tin Index showed a V - shaped trend on Tuesday. Tin prices are affected by the anti - involution policy, but the fundamentals remain stable. It is recommended to hedge inventory at an appropriate time [16][17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain strengthened, and the cost support was enhanced. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17][18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose by the daily limit. Affected by coal price disturbances and macro - emotions, there are opportunities for long positions and positive spreads [19][20]. - **Lead**: The main contract of Shanghai Lead decreased by 0.02% on the previous trading day. The supply of lead is in a tight - balance state, and it is difficult to synchronize with the anti - involution policy. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The coking coal market led to a rise in the steel market. The market is expected to remain strong before the Politburo meeting in July, but the risk of a pullback due to the weakening of emotions should be vigilant [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by news and expectations, the price of iron ore followed the rise of coking coal. The fundamentals have not changed much, and the price is expected to fluctuate more strongly near the meeting [26][27]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke markets rose by the daily limit. The production of domestic coking coal mines is gradually recovering, and the import is expected to increase. The coking industry is under cost pressure, and the demand for coke is supported in the short term. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [28][29][30]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The profits of silicon iron and silicon manganese have improved, and the production enterprises have a certain driving force to resume production. However, the growth space is limited due to weak downstream demand. The market is expected to be optimistic in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The prices of New York and London crude oil futures decreased, and the SC crude oil main contract also closed down at night. The market is in an oscillating and weakening pattern, and attention should be paid to the risk of a price decline [33][34]. - **PX - PTA**: The PX - PTA industry chain has limited fundamental driving forces. The macro "anti - involution" policy has an uncertain impact, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [35][36][37]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The supply of ethylene glycol has frequent accidents, and the demand is weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" emotion, the overall trend is strong. The bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39][40]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 09 contract closed at 2450 on Tuesday. The port inventory continued to accumulate. It is recommended to observe due to strong macro - emotions [41][42]. - **PP**: The PP 2509 contract increased. The supply is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. Although the trading volume has increased, the price increase faces resistance [43][44]. - **PE**: The PE 2509 contract increased. The supply has a high level of maintenance, and the demand is gradually recovering. It is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [45][46]. - **PVC**: The PVC price increased sharply, driven by the "anti - involution" emotion and the expectation of eliminating outdated chemical devices. Although the fundamentals are poor, the anti - involution value is high. It is recommended to avoid risks [47][48][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is in a weak adjustment. The supply is still tight, and the demand has increased in some areas. The Singapore and Malaysian floating - storage inventories are at a high level [50]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The supply has decreased overseas, and the demand has slightly improved. It is recommended to observe in the short term [51]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market is adjusted weakly following the cost side. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory structure is being adjusted, and the market is expected to improve in the peak season [51][52]. - **Urea**: The urea 09 contract closed at 1810 on Tuesday. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. However, the agricultural demand is gradually weakening, and the fundamentals will be under pressure in the second half of the year [53]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply is strong and demand is weak, and the glass market is expected to remain strong. The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the policy [54][55]. Others - **Logs**: The main contract of logs closed at 838, with a decrease of 4 and a reduction of 2264 lots. The market is relatively independent, and the spot price is stable. The current price is slightly overvalued [57][58]. - **Pulp**: The main contract of pulp closed at 5368, with an increase of 40. Affected by the macro - atmosphere, the price has risen. If it can break through effectively, it can be cautiously chased long [59]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda 2509 contract closed at 2658, with an increase of 3.46%. The inventory has increased slightly, and the market is at a high level. Attention should be paid to the change in downstream demand [60]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The LH2509 contract closed at 14380, with a daily increase of 0.1%. The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. The supply is still high, and it is recommended to short at high prices and arrange appropriate reverse spreads [62][63]. Oilseeds - The external market of US soybeans oscillated after a rebound, and the domestic near - month contracts were strong, and the far - month contracts also followed the rise. The supply of imported soybeans is relatively abundant, and the demand for domestic soybean meal has neutral support. The supply of rapeseed meal has a short - term rhythm problem, and attention should be paid to the supply recovery of the rapeseed sector [64]. - It is recommended to long - allocate far - month contracts [65][66]. Corn and Starch - The CBOT corn futures closed down, and the Dalian corn starch oscillated. The prices of corn and starch in different regions were stable. The market is expected to oscillate narrowly, and attention should be paid to the auction成交 rate [66]. Cotton - The ICE cotton futures rose slightly, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures rose nearly 0.5% overnight. The new cotton in Xinjiang is growing well, and the domestic cotton inventory is low, which supports the cotton price. However, the terminal demand is weak in the off - season [67]. - The cotton market is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the import quota policy and inventory changes [67][68]. Sugar - The ICE raw sugar futures closed down, and the Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and the short - term sugar price is under pressure [69][70]. Apples - The apple futures price increased slightly. The spot price of apples in different regions is stable. Affected by seasonal fruits, the sales volume is limited. The inventory is at a low level in the past five years. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [71].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is positive, influenced by policies such as "anti - involution" and the expected release of key industry stability and growth plans. However, different sectors have different outlooks based on their specific fundamentals [6][11]. - In the short term, the market style may shift from small - and medium - cap stocks to large - and medium - cap stocks. For the bond market, although the long - term trend of interest rates is downward, the recent strong performance of commodities and the stock market has suppressed the bond market [3][6]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - Macro news includes the release of the "Rural Highway Regulations", the establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd., coal stock surges due to production checks, and net foreign capital inflows into domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [2]. - The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided. The trading logic suggests that the market style may shift, and it is recommended to go long on IF index futures at low prices [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. Foreign capital has been increasing its allocation of RMB assets, and the scale of foreign investment in RMB bonds is at a historically high level. The human resources department will promote pension - related reforms [4]. - The central bank conducted 2148 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2477 billion yuan. The economic data in the second quarter was resilient, and the central bank is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy. The bond market may be affected by the stock - bond seesaw [5][6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold and silver prices rose, while COMEX gold fell slightly and COMEX silver rose. The statements of Fed officials have affected the precious metals market. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals, with reference price ranges provided for Shanghai gold and silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US dollar index is weak, and the commodity sentiment is positive, driving up copper prices. However, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the downstream is in a relatively off - season. The implementation of US copper tariffs may pose a downward risk to copper prices. Reference price ranges are provided for Shanghai copper and LME copper [10][11]. Aluminum - The rise of black - series commodities has led to an increase in aluminum prices. Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, it is expected to accumulate due to the off - season and weak export demand. Reference price ranges are provided for domestic and LME aluminum [12]. Zinc - In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, the dovish Fed atmosphere and the strong commodity sentiment may lead to a short - term upward trend in zinc prices [13]. Lead - The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the demand is affected by anti - dumping tariffs. It is expected that the domestic lead price will be weak [15][16]. Nickel - The short - term macro - environment is positive, but the stainless - steel inventory is high, and the demand for nickel is weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [17]. Tin - The supply of tin is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the short - term supply of raw materials is still tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges provided [18]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium has increased. The "anti - involution" policy has affected the market sentiment, but the fundamental improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [19][20]. Alumina - The price of alumina has increased. The policy of "eliminating backward production capacity" has boosted the market sentiment, but the over - capacity situation may still exist. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [21]. Stainless Steel - The price of stainless steel has increased slightly, but the supply exceeds demand, and the market sentiment has cooled. The anti - involution policy has boosted the industry's willingness to support prices, but the fundamental situation has not improved significantly [22]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy has increased slightly. The downstream is in an off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The cost support has strengthened, but the price may face difficulties in continuous increase [23]. Black Building Materials Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have increased. The start of the Motuo Hydropower Station project has increased the demand expectation for building materials. The supply - side reform and low inventory levels may support the price increase. Attention should be paid to policy signals and terminal demand [25][26]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore has increased. The high demand for iron water and low overseas ore arrivals have supported the price. The "anti - involution" policy has also boosted the market sentiment. The ore price may remain strong in the short - term [27][28]. Glass and Soda Ash - The price of glass has increased due to policy support and inventory reduction. The price of soda ash has also increased in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction still exists. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities later [29][30]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have increased due to the coal market rally. The fundamental situation of the alloy market is still bearish, but the short - term market sentiment is strong. It is recommended to wait and see [31][32]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon has increased. The supply of industrial silicon is still excessive, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to rationally treat the current market and consider hedging for the industrial side [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The prices of NR and RU have risen. The rubber market has different views from bulls and bears. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises have changed, and the inventory situation is complex. It is recommended to maintain a long - term bullish view on rubber prices in the medium - term and be cautious in the short - term [38][39][41]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil have declined. The fundamental market is healthy, but the seasonal demand in August may limit the upward space. A target price for WTI in September is provided, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [42][44]. Methanol - The price of methanol has increased. The market is driven by news, and the volatility has increased. The supply and demand are expected to be weak in the future. It is recommended to wait and see after the sharp increase [45]. Urea - The price of urea has increased. The domestic urea supply and demand are acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom but limited upside. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [46]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene has increased, and the futures price has decreased, with a strengthening basis. The cost - side support is strong, and the BZN spread may be repaired. It is expected that the styrene price will follow the cost - side fluctuations [47]. PVC - The price of PVC has increased. The fundamental situation has improved slightly, but the supply and demand and valuation still face pressure. The short - term trend is strong due to anti - dumping extension and market sentiment [49]. Ethylene Glycol - The price of ethylene glycol has increased. The supply and demand situation is changing, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term valuation has upward support, but the fundamental situation may turn weak in the future [50]. PTA - The price of PTA has increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX at low prices [51]. Para - Xylene - The price of para - xylene has increased. The short - term negative feedback from the downstream is small, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil at low prices [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - The futures price of PE has increased. The cost - side support has returned, but the demand is in an off - season. The price may maintain a downward trend in a volatile manner [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The futures price of PP has increased. The supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and it is expected that the price will be bearish in July. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price has generally declined. The short - term supply is limited, and the price may rise again in August. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may increase. It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 09 contract and consider hedging or short - selling for the 11 contract [56]. Eggs - The egg price has mostly stabilized, with some increases and decreases. The supply pressure has eased, but the high - premium situation makes the market lack a clear trend. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds for the 09 and later contracts [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of US soybeans is expected to fluctuate within a range. The domestic soybean import cost is affected by trade relations. The domestic soybean meal market has both long and short factors. It is recommended to go long at the low end of the cost range and wait for new drivers [58][59]. Oils and Fats - The price of palm oil has continued to rise. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the high - yield expectation and other factors limit the upward space. It is recommended to view the market as volatile [60][62]. Sugar - The price of sugar has declined slightly. The import of syrup and pre - mixed powder has decreased, but the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year. It is expected that the price of Zhengzhou sugar will continue to decline [63]. Cotton - The price of cotton has increased slightly. The US cotton growth situation is good, and the downstream consumption is average. The potential issuance of import quotas may be a negative factor. The price has reflected some positive expectations [64][65].

Group 1 - The dollar index has fallen below 100, while the 30-year Treasury yield has surged past 5%, leading to an additional $50 billion in annual interest payments [2] - The U.S. is experiencing a wave of de-dollarization, primarily driven by actions from the Trump administration, including a recent executive order imposing 100% tariffs on key exports from 23 countries [2][4] - Countries like Russia, Brazil, and Iran are increasingly using alternative currencies for trade, with 92.3% of Russia's trade with BRICS partners now settled in currencies other than the dollar [4] Group 2 - The U.S. sanctions have prompted a significant shift away from the dollar, with China selling $74 billion in U.S. Treasuries, marking a 16-year low in holdings [4] - The SPFS system in Russia, which bypasses SWIFT, is now connected to 159 countries, indicating a growing trend towards alternative payment systems [5] - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped below 55%, the lowest level since 1995, signaling a decline in dollar dominance [7]

Group 1 - Canada has imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese steel, which has led to a loss of market share, while Australia is set to secure a new canola trade agreement with China, marking the end of years of trade freeze [1][11][15] - China's canola seed inventory has reached a low point, and Australia's nearshore supply capability allows for quick delivery to China, filling the gap left by Canada [3][23] - Canada's agricultural sector is facing severe drought, and the loss of canola exports to China exacerbates its economic challenges [11][29] Group 2 - Canada's actions appear to be a strategic move to appease the U.S., but this has resulted in economic isolation and a loss of significant agricultural contracts with China [7][15] - In contrast, Australia has shifted its approach under the Albanese government, focusing on national interests and re-establishing trade relations with China, leading to the removal of over 20 billion AUD in trade barriers [19][21] - The geographical advantage of Australia allows for faster shipping times to China compared to Canada, making Australian canola more competitive [23][31] Group 3 - China's market power and diversified supply sources, including increased imports from Russia and Kazakhstan, provide it with strong bargaining leverage in international trade [27][29] - China's domestic agricultural production is improving, ensuring stability in its supply chain despite external pressures [29][32] - The evolving agricultural trade landscape indicates a shift towards greater autonomy and diversification for China, allowing it to maintain control over its economic strategies [32]