苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2025-10-29 洛川富士货价混乱，河北红枣特级微降 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9238元/吨，较前一日变动+302元/吨，幅度+3.38%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1738，较前一日变动-302；陕西洛川70# 以 上半商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-938，较前一日变动-302。 近期市场资讯，晚富士产区西部入库行情稳定，地面交易随质量下滑成交价格略走低。山东交易上量，好货价格 维持稳硬，客商收购好货略有难度，小单车收购积极，栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主 流参考价3.0-3.5元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，以质论价。甘肃整体行情稳定，客商入库进入后期；陕西产区好货 订购进入中后期，一般货源价格混乱，入库工作陆续开展。目前交易价格来看，陕西洛川产区晚富士70#以上半商 品3.8-4.5元/斤附近，70#以上统货3.4-3.8元/斤，订园价格3.5-3.8元/斤主流。多以质论价。甘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the粕 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors are "cautiously bearish" [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕 market, the current domestic fundamentals have not changed significantly. The domestic arrival volume is relatively sufficient, and the inventory of soybeans and bean meal remains at a relatively high level, with overall supply being relatively loose. Key factors to watch include the Sino - US negotiation situation, policy changes, and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [2] - For the corn market, on the supply side, due to the previous decline in the corn price at the northern ports, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain was relatively low, but this week, the price in the Northeast region has shown a slightly stronger trend, and farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has slightly recovered. In the North China region, the impact of the weather has subsided, the risk of grain spoilage has significantly decreased, and the pace of selling wet grain has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of channels, ports, deep - processing enterprises, and feed enterprises all remains at a low level, but the willingness to stock up is low [4][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕 Market 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2975 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.47% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2396 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton or 2.61% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the spot price of bean meal was 3000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 + 25, down 33 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 45, down 13 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 25, down 3 from the previous day. In Fujian, the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 204, down 11 from the previous day [1] - **Market News**: As of last Thursday, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season reached 36% of the expected sown area, the same as the same period last year, and up from 24% the previous week. As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1.061 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 1 - 1.5 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.59 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis The current domestic fundamentals have not changed much, with sufficient arrival volume, high inventory of soybeans and bean meal, and relatively loose overall supply. Key factors to watch are the Sino - US negotiation situation, policy changes, and the sowing progress of new - season Brazilian soybeans [2] 3.1.3 Strategy Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn Market 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2123 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.52% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2424 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 17, down 21 from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 126, up 1 from the previous day [3] - **Market News**: As of October 23, the sowing progress of the first - season corn in the central and southern regions of Brazil for the 2025/26 season was 55%, up from 51% the previous week and 53% in the same period last year. As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1.187 million tons, with a previous market forecast of 1.1 - 2.05 million tons, and the revised figure for the previous week was 1.325 million tons [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis On the supply side, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain in the Northeast has slightly recovered, and the pace of selling wet grain in North China has slowed down. On the demand side, the inventory of various sectors is low, but the willingness to stock up is low [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy Cautiously bearish [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of multiple commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, along with important fundamental information including weather, production, inventory, and export data. It also covers macro - economic news from both international and domestic fronts, as well as details on capital flows and futures market arbitrage tracking [1][3][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and price changes of multiple futures contracts are reported, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) was 4290.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.30% and an overnight decline of 0.58% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies are provided, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, Argentine peso, and Singapore dollar [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot**: Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are given. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9070, with a basis of 90 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - **Imported Soybeans**: CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are presented, with Brazilian soybeans having a CNF premium of 250 cents per bushel and a CNF quote of 490 dollars per ton [3]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather**: The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states (November 2 - 6) shows uneven temperature distribution and mostly normal or below - median precipitation. The US Midwest will have sporadic showers and brief cooling this week. Brazilian central regions are expected to see rainfall again, which is beneficial for soybean planting [4][6][7]. - **Production, Inventory, and Export**: GAPKI predicts that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 10% to about 5,600 million tons, and exports will be 3,000 - 3,100 million tons. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 254 million tons. As of Sunday, the estimated completion of US soybean and corn harvests are 84% and 72% respectively. Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October are expected to be 700 million tons and 208 million tons respectively [8][9]. - **Other Information**: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 20 - 24 was 467.42 Brazilian reals per ton. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed from October 2025 - 26 are lower than the same period last year. Nepal's exports to India increased by 137.9% in the first quarter of the 2025 - 26 fiscal year, mainly driven by soybean oil exports. The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline on Tuesday [9][10][11]. - **Trading and Inventory**: On October 28, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 16,900 tons, a 35% increase. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country was 113,400 tons, an increase of 17,200 tons. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 64.01%, a decrease of 1.96%. The national soybean oil port inventory on October 28 was 1234,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons [12]. 3.4 Macro - economic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut in December is 91.6%. The average number of newly added US jobs is estimated to be 14,250. The US October unemployment rate is estimated to be 4.35%. There are also data on US retail sales, manufacturing index, consumer confidence index, housing price index, and API crude oil inventory [14]. - **Domestic News**: On October 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, down 25 points. The People's Bank of China conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan [16]. 3.5 Capital Flows On October 28, 2025, the net capital outflow from the futures market was 17.622 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 11.52 billion yuan from commodity futures (1.152 billion yuan from agricultural product futures, a net outflow of 467 million yuan from chemical futures, a net outflow of 1.183 billion yuan from black - series futures, and a net outflow of 10.546 billion yuan from metal futures), a net outflow of 7.354 billion yuan from stock index futures, and a net inflow of 1.256 billion yuan from treasury bond futures [19]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No detailed information provided other than the section title.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][6][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asset allocation should be balanced. After the Fed's interest rate cut decision in the October meeting, the progress of China - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, it is expected to benefit overseas and domestic equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals. Black commodities may also have a rebound opportunity due to domestic policy improvement, while precious metals may continue to adjust in the short term [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US government shutdown continued this week. China - US tariff expectations eased, and the CPI in September was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing. Reasons include the lower - than - expected September CPI, the 12th rejection of the temporary budget bill by the Senate, the increased economic downward pressure after the government shutdown, and the easing of China - US tariff expectations [6] - **Domestic Macro**: On October 28, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" and its explanatory notes were released, emphasizing the strategic position of science and technology and emerging industries, and also covering areas such as boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and "anti - involution" [6] - **Asset Views**: Short - term balanced allocation is recommended. After the Fed's interest rate cut decision, China - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the plenary session, equity sectors and non - ferrous metals may benefit, black commodities may rebound, and precious metals may continue to adjust [6] 3.2 Market Performance of Various Assets - **Financial Market**: Stock index futures showed a shrinking - volume rebound, with the growth style being active due to technology events. Stock index options had a slightly lower trading volume. Treasury bond futures remained weak [2][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver entered a short - term adjustment phase due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade tensions [7] - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line was under pressure as the peak season in the third quarter ended [7] - **Black Building Materials**: The steel industry faced policy disturbances and inventory pressure. Iron ore was mainly affected by sentiment. Coke's price increase was about to be implemented, and coking coal prices were strong. Other related products also had their own market characteristics [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper prices fell in the short term due to trade frictions. Aluminum prices rose, while zinc prices were weak. Other non - ferrous metals also showed different trends [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical industry still faced a weak supply - demand situation. Most products were expected to fluctuate, with some showing a downward trend [9] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural market showed a mixed trend. Some products were affected by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply - demand [9]

农产品日报 | 2025-10-29 糖价内强外弱，郑棉反弹受阻 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13565元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨，幅度+0.00%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14651元/吨，较前一日变动-39元/吨，现货基差CF01+1086，较前一日变动-39；3128B棉全国均价14830元/吨， 较前一日变动-3元/吨，现货基差CF01+1265，较前一日变动-3。 近期市场资讯，据外媒消息，在进口棉增量冲击之下，印度国内棉花价格承压。为了保障植棉收入，棉农交售给 政府的意愿或持续偏强。基于此，印度棉花公司（CCI）有望在2025/26年度收购238万吨棉花，创下历史新高。从 近期皮棉价格运行来看，印度多地现货价格稳中略跌。27日北部棉区旁遮普邦棉花成交价在5240-5270卢比/莫恩德 （折约50000-50300卢比/坎地），哈里亚纳邦在5030-5080比/莫恩德（折约48000-48500卢比/坎地）；拉贾斯坦邦北部 地区在5190-5240卢比/莫恩德（折约49600-50100卢比/坎地）。中部古吉拉特邦S-6品种（29mm）成交价在525 ...

油料日报 | 2025-10-29 中性 风险 贸易商转向采购东北豆，花生市场避险情绪浓厚 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约4115.00元/吨，较前日变化+38.00元/吨，幅度+0.93%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11-35，较前日变化-38，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：据钢联数据，东北市场新季大豆价格在还粮需求叠加关内产区新季大豆品质下滑的影响下，整体 偏强运行，农户挺价意愿仍强，但受制于销售价格涨幅有限影响，粮贸企业多以销售前期库存为主，收购积极性 有所降温。随着还粮时间将近，后期大豆集中上市价格仍有回调风险。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中 粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.04元/ 斤，较前一日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.02元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙 江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.15元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标 一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.14元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overseas agricultural product prices have surged due to improved demand expectations, with Chicago soybean futures reaching a 15-month high, but analysts believe that the short-term sentiment boost may not counterbalance the pressure from abundant supply fundamentals [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent months have seen continuous pressure on soybean prices due to the harvest season and stagnant Chinese buying, leading to weak demand. The CBOT soybean deliverable inventory has significantly increased, reaching 18.714 million bushels as of October 17, up 13% week-on-week and 41.89% year-on-year [3]. - Brazil's soybean planting is progressing steadily, with expectations of continued high yields. The latest report from CONAB indicates that Brazil's soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season will reach 49.1 million hectares, with an expected production of 178 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.6% and 3.5% respectively [4]. - Brazil's soybean exports remain robust, with October exports projected at 7 million tons, significantly higher than the 4.43 million tons exported in the same month last year [4]. Market Sentiment and Price Movements - The sentiment in the agricultural market has improved following preliminary agreements between China and the U.S. on key trade issues, leading to a significant rise in prices for major agricultural products on October 27, with Chicago corn, wheat, and soybean contracts rising by 1.3%, 2.63%, and 2.33% respectively [3]. - The cost of imported U.S. soybeans in China has also increased, reaching 4,737 yuan per ton, marking a five-and-a-half-month high [3]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, analysts suggest that the overall market remains under pressure due to ample supply. The U.S. soybean harvest is progressing rapidly, with an estimated completion of 84% as of October 26, nearing the fastest pace in 14 years [5]. - The domestic soybean and oilseed inventory levels in China are also high, with crushing volumes exceeding 2.1 million tons for two consecutive weeks, indicating a well-supplied market for the fourth quarter [5]. - Analysts from Guotai Junan Futures express that while there is a short-term sentiment recovery, the fundamental supply-demand dynamics are unlikely to change significantly, predicting that soybean prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural product options market shows diversified trends, with oilseeds and oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains each having their own market characteristics. - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,129, up 37 with a 0.90% increase, and its trading volume is 12.84 million lots, a decrease of 3.11 million lots compared to the previous period [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of various agricultural product options reflect the market sentiment and potential turning points. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.78, a decrease of 0.18, and the open - interest PCR is 1.05, an increase of 0.07 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the maximum open - interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of each agricultural product option are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4200, and the support level is 3900 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each agricultural product option is at different levels and shows different trends. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 13.095%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.55%, an increase of 0.94% [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options**: - **Soybean No.1**: Construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: Build a bearish spread combination strategy of put options and a short bearish call + put option combination strategy, as well as a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil**: Construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Peanut**: Adopt a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Agricultural By - product Options**: - **Pig**: Build a bearish spread combination strategy of put options, a short bearish call + put option combination strategy, and a long covered strategy [10]. - **Egg**: Build a bearish spread combination strategy of put options and a short bearish call + put option combination strategy [11]. - **Apple**: Construct a short bullish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Jujube**: Build a short bullish strangle option combination strategy and a long covered hedging strategy [12]. - **Soft Commodity Options**: - **Sugar**: Construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [12]. - **Cotton**: Build a short bearish call + put option combination strategy and a long covered strategy [13]. - **Grain Options**: - **Corn**: Construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to have no trend - based market, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: Low risk of significant decline, consider taking long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Pricing is relatively full, take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices is hard to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Consider buying during pullbacks [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: May continue to have oversupply in the short term. Consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again after a decline [21][22] - **Crude Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [24][25] - **Fuel Oil**: Look for long - buying opportunities [26][27] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillate [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: Look for long - buying opportunities [30][31] - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [32][35] - **Urea**: Limited downside space [36][37] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider participating at low levels [38][39] - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term. Be cautiously bullish and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May oscillate in the short term. Participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41][42] - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side. Control risks [44][45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46] - **Copper**: Look for long - buying opportunities [47][48] - **Tin**: May oscillate with an upward bias [49] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [51] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Consider long positions for soybean meal after adjustment; temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [54][55] - **Palm Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [56][58] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [59][60] - **Cotton**: Limited upside space for cotton prices [61][62] - **Sugar**: There is support at the bottom [64][67] - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [69][71] - **Pigs**: Take profit on short positions in the short term and then wait and see. Wait for opportunities to sell short on rebounds [72][73] - **Eggs**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to wait and see for corn; corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan. ADP will release weekly US employment data. The current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. The yield is relatively low, and the market risk preference has increased. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased, and the risk of significant decline is low [8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US housing price index increased. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and potential Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the pricing is full [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The real - estate industry's downward trend remains unchanged, and rebar demand is declining year - on - year. Although it is the traditional peak demand season, the inventory pressure is obvious. The basic logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar [13][14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The national hot - metal daily output remains at around 2.4 million tons, supporting prices. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore have increased quarter - on - quarter since the second quarter, the year - on - year decline in the first 9 months remains unchanged. The port inventory is lower than last year [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. Coking coal supply is slightly tight due to safety inspections, and demand is okay. The second - round increase in coke procurement prices is gradually being implemented. Coking profits are stable, and demand remains high [18] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon futures closed down, and silicon - iron futures closed up. The manganese - ore shipment from Gabon decreased, and the Australian ore supply increased. The port manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, but the level is still low. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the supply is in short - term surplus [21] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward but remained above the 5 - day moving average. The US government shutdown suspended the CFTC report. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased for the second consecutive week. India's Reliance Industries will comply with sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude - oil production is difficult, and sanctions on Russia are beneficial to oil prices [23][24] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The sanctions on oil have increased market sentiment. The Asian high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil spreads are strong, and the Singapore fuel - oil supply is tight. Sanctions on Russia are beneficial to fuel - oil prices [26] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The short - and medium - term maintenance is expected to increase, which may drive the market to stop falling and rebound. The raw - material side is bearish, and the private - enterprise supply is expected to increase. The short - term market is weak, and it will oscillate [28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural - rubber futures showed mixed performance. The market should focus on the weather in production areas and demand expectations. The new - rubber production is slow due to weather disturbances, and the raw - material purchase price has increased. The tire - enterprise capacity utilization has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased significantly [30] PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. The PVC production capacity utilization has decreased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. The cost - profit situation is complex [32][33] Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. In the short term, pay attention to export - policy changes and the seasonal recovery of agricultural demand. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand from the agricultural market has increased. The cost is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36] Para - Xylene (PX) - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and the supply has slightly decreased. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, PX may oscillate and adjust, with support at the bottom [38][39] PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has changed, and the demand from the polyester industry is stable. The processing fee has been significantly under pressure, and the inventory is low. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, it may oscillate [40] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The overall operating load has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. The downstream polyester industry's operating rate is stable, but the terminal demand support is limited. In the short term, it may oscillate [41][42] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The device load has decreased, and the demand has improved. The processing fee is around 1,125 yuan/ton. In the short term, it may oscillate following costs [43] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The processing fee has decreased to around 450 yuan/ton. The factory load has increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side [44][45] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose. The production is at a high level, and the supply - side profit is sufficient. The demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing [46] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures fell significantly. The spot market was mediocre, and the downstream consumption sentiment was low. The Indonesian copper mine has not resumed production, which supports copper prices. There are different views on the Sino - US APEC meeting [47] Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is tight, the resumption of production in Wa State is slow, and the domestic processing fee is low. The demand shows certain resilience. The refined - tin inventory is decreasing, and the price may oscillate upward [49] Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures closed down. The change in Indonesia's RKAB approval policy has raised supply concerns. The mining - end price has weakened, and the domestic port inventory is increasing. The high - grade nickel ore is still tight. The stainless - steel consumption is weak, and the refined - nickel market is in surplus [51] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures fell. Sino - US trade frictions may ease. The soybean - crushing volume of oil mills has recovered to a high level. The soybean - meal inventory has decreased, and the soybean - oil inventory pressure is still large. The consumption of soybean oil may be suppressed, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately [53][54] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm - oil futures fell for the third consecutive day. Indonesia's palm - oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025. The domestic palm - oil import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [56] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. In China, the import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in September, while the import of rapeseed oil increased. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels in the past 7 years [59] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market has high expectations for Sino - US negotiations. The export of textile and clothing is relatively stable. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high this year, and the cotton price is under pressure [61][62] Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded significantly, while overseas sugar futures fell to a four - year low. Brazil's sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the southern region will start in December [64][66] Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly due to quality concerns. The opening price this year is higher than last year. The late - maturing apple market is active, but the quality is poor [69][70] Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. At the end of the month, the northern market is strengthening, and the southern market is following. The supply from group farms has decreased slightly, and the retail - farmer reluctance to sell remains. The consumption demand has improved. In the second half of the month, the supply from group farms is expected to increase [72] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The cost per catty has increased slightly, and the farming profit is negative. The number of laying hens in stock is at a high level in the past 9 years. In October, the supply is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected [74] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The new - season corn is accelerating to ports, and the inventory is expected to increase. The demand for corn is growing slightly, but the price is under pressure due to the harvest. Corn starch has weak supply and demand, and the inventory is at a high level [76][77]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global soybean supply is expected to remain loose. Although there are signals of China potentially importing US soybeans, the increase in US soybean prices may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums. The import cost will mainly fluctuate. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the profit margin for oil extraction is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2][4]. - For palm oil, the higher - than - expected production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market. The current high supply may lead to inventory accumulation, but this situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. It is advisable to wait for clearer production signals and currently stay on the sidelines [5][7]. - For sugar, short - term import controls on syrups and pre - mixed powders have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to negative data on sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region since September and expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [9][10]. - For cotton, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. With the expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, the selling - hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the upward space is relatively limited in the short term [12][13]. - For eggs, the spot price still has a rebound expectation, but the space is limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the spot price increase can cover the futures premium. Currently, it is in the traditional stocking season, and the spot price has limited downward space with a small upward expectation. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait [15][17]. - For pigs, in the medium term, due to the high slaughter scale and expected future supply, pig prices are likely to be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, there is a short - term rebound, but the market may fluctuate. It is recommended to gradually establish reverse - spread positions during the rebound and short when approaching the pressure level [19][20]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose as US officials said China would make large - scale purchases of US soybeans. On Monday, the domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly by 20 yuan, with the price in East China at 2,890 yuan/ton. The trading volume of soybean meal was weak, but the pick - up was good. Last week, the inventory days of domestic feed enterprises increased by 0.03 days to 7.95 days. The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased, while the soybean inventory decreased month - on - month. The total inventory was high and showed a slight de - stocking trend. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3392 million tons, compared with 2.3674 million tons last week [2]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing rate of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 36% of the expected level, and the rainfall in the main planting areas was at a medium level. Frequent consultations on trade issues between China and the US are expected to be beneficial to US soybeans in the short term, but the international soybean supply is abundant, and the high premium in Brazil may decline, leading to a weakening import cost. Domestically, high soybean and soybean meal inventories mean that US soybean imports will slow down the de - stocking process and reduce the profit margin for oil extraction [2]. Strategy Views - In terms of import cost, the signal of China potentially importing US soybeans may be offset by the decline in Brazilian premiums, so the import cost will mainly fluctuate. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories, the profit margin for oil extraction is under pressure. Given the loose global soybean supply, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [4]. Oil Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.86% - 19.37% compared to the same period last month, 12.3% - 16.2% in the first 15 days, 3.4% in the first 20 days, and decreased by 0.4% in the first 25 days. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 15 increased by 6.86% month - on - month, 2.71% in the first 20 days, and 1.63% in the first 25 days [5]. - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) said that Brazil's soybean exports in October are expected to reach 7 million tons, down from the previous week's estimate of 7.34 million tons [5]. - Indonesia said that due to good weather, its palm oil production in 2025 may increase by 10%. On Tuesday, domestic oils fell. High palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia recently has suppressed the market. Indonesia's August production data still significantly exceeded previous years, weakening the expectation of tight supply in the first quarter of next year. There are also rumors that Indonesia may suspend the implementation of B50 in 2026. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [5]. Strategy Views - The higher - than - expected production of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the market. The current high - supply and inventory - accumulation situation may reverse in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. Otherwise, palm oil will remain weak. It is recommended to wait for clearer production signals and currently stay on the sidelines [7]. Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups quoted 5,660 - 5,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; Yunnan sugar - making groups quoted 5,600 - 5,640 yuan/ton, down 0 - 10 yuan/ton; processing sugar mills' mainstream quotes were in the range of 5,790 - 5,930 yuan/ton, down 0 - 30 yuan/ton. The basis between Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 177 yuan/ton [9]. - On October 14, the General Administration of Customs announced regulations on the registration management of overseas production enterprises of imported food. The number of enterprises suspended from importing Thai syrups and pre - mixed powders has increased from 35 to 44, with only 16 being effective, and the scope of suspension has expanded from 1,702 items to 2,106 items [9]. Strategy Views - Short - term import controls on syrups and pre - mixed powders have driven up Zhengzhou sugar prices. However, due to negative data on sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region since September and expected increases in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, resulting in a large profit margin for out - of - quota imports. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound weakens [10]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract was 13,565 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1,265 yuan/ton [12]. - On October 27, the purchase index of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.30 yuan/kg, and that of hand - picked cotton was 7.06 yuan/kg, both unchanged from the previous day. As of the week of October 24, the operating rate of spinning mills was 65.6%, unchanged from the previous week, 7.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and 9.6 percentage points lower than the average of the past five years [12]. Strategy Views - Fundamentally, the demand during the peak consumption season this year is weak, and the downstream industrial chain's operating rate has declined significantly compared to the same period in previous years. With the expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, the selling - hedging pressure is high. Although the recent increase in new cotton purchase prices has driven up Zhengzhou cotton prices, the upward space is relatively limited in the short term [13]. Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few areas showing narrow - range adjustments. The average price in the main production areas dropped 0.01 yuan to 2.94 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained at 2.9 yuan/jin, and that in Guantao dropped 0.11 yuan to 2.67 yuan/jin. The supply was relatively stable, and farmers were actively selling. The market sales were average, and industry players generally followed the market. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable today, with a few areas showing weak adjustments [15][16]. Strategy Views - The spot price still has a rebound expectation, but the space is limited due to high supply. The focus of the futures market is whether the spot price increase can cover the futures premium. Currently, it is in the traditional stocking season, and the spot price has limited downward space with a small upward expectation. The futures market has high positions, and it is expected to remain at the bottom, but the upward space is not optimistic, and the trend may be volatile. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [17]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices continued to rise. The average price in Henan increased 0.23 yuan to 12.75 yuan/kg, that in Sichuan increased 0.35 yuan to 12.27 yuan/kg, and that in Guangxi increased 0.43 yuan to 12.18 yuan/kg. Some farmers in low - price areas may still have a tendency to hold back sales. Although pig prices continued to be strong, the downstream purchasing power was limited in some northern regions after the previous price increase. It is expected that prices will be stable today, with possible declines in some areas [19]. Strategy Views - Currently, the slaughter scale and the expected future supply are still high, and the decline in pig weight during the price drop was limited. In the medium term, with high supply pressure, pig prices are likely to be more likely to fall than to rise. In the short term, multiple factors have led to a rebound, and the supporting factors still exist. The futures market with high positions is prone to fluctuations. It is expected that there will be a short - term rebound. In the medium term, it is advisable to gradually establish reverse - spread positions during the rebound and short when approaching the pressure level [20].