1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The log futures fluctuated yesterday. The main contract LG2603 closed at 778 yuan per cubic meter, down 1 yuan per cubic meter from the previous day. The spot prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The latest round of FOB quotes was 112 US dollars per JAS cubic meter. The inventory decreased significantly on a weekly basis, and the demand declined slightly. From December 22 - 28, 2025, the number of pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports decreased by 40% week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased by 41% week - on - week. The recent log futures price has recovered to near the warehouse receipt cost. With the approaching New Zealand holidays, the later shipment volume is expected to decrease. The demand remains stable but weak. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On December 22, compared with December 19, the price of log 2601 was 769.5, down 2.5 (- 0.32%); log 2603 was 778.0, down 1.0 (- 0.13%); log 2605 was 783.5, unchanged. The 01 - 03 spread was - 8.5, down 1.5; the 01 - 05 spread was - 14.0, down 2.5. The 03 - contract basis was - 38.0, up 1.0; the 01 - contract basis was - 29.5, up 2.5 [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged from December 19 to 22, with no change in price or percentage change. The FOB prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged from December 19 to 26 [2] - **Import Cost**: On December 22, compared with December 21, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.032, down 0.003 (0%); the import theoretical cost was 775.12, down 0.26 (0%) [2] 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In November, the port shipment volume was 189.2 million cubic meters, down 12.1 million cubic meters (- 6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49.0, down 5.0 (- 9.26%) [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Main Port Inventory (Weekly)**: As of December 19, compared with December 12, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 260 million cubic meters, down 12 million cubic meters (- 4.41%); the inventory in Shandong was 181.3 million cubic meters, down 7.1 million cubic meters (- 3.77%); the inventory in Jiangsu was 61.52 million cubic meters, down 6.7 million cubic meters (- 9.85%) [2][3] 3.4 Demand - **Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly)**: As of December 19, compared with December 12, the daily average outbound volume of logs in China was 6.32 million cubic meters, down 0.14 million cubic meters (- 2%); in Shandong, it was 3.34 million cubic meters, down 0.10 million cubic meters (- 3%); in Jiangsu, it was 2.52 million cubic meters, up 0.02 million cubic meters (1%) [3] 3.5 Forecast of Log Arrival - From December 22 - 28, 2025, there were 9 pre - arrival ships of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports, 6 fewer than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%. The total arrival volume was about 30.9 million cubic meters, 21.5 million cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 41% [3]

Core Viewpoint - India and New Zealand have announced a free trade agreement aimed at deepening bilateral economic ties and promoting economic growth amid increasing global trade uncertainties [1][6]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The free trade agreement, which took 9 months to negotiate, aims to reduce tariff barriers, simplify regulatory processes, and expand cooperation in goods trade, services trade, and investment [1][6]. - Under the agreement, all Indian goods exported to New Zealand will receive zero-tariff access, while New Zealand will gradually enjoy tariff concessions on approximately 70% of India's tariff lines, covering 95% of its exports [1][7]. - New Zealand has committed to investing $20 billion in India over the next 15 years as part of the agreement [7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The bilateral trade volume between India and New Zealand is currently limited, but officials believe the agreement has strong growth potential, with expectations to double the trade volume to $2.4 billion by 2024 [7]. - New Zealand's Prime Minister stated that the agreement is expected to increase New Zealand's annual exports to India by $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion over the next 20 years [7][8]. - Key sectors benefiting from the agreement include India's textiles, apparel, engineering products, leather footwear, and seafood, while New Zealand's horticultural products, timber exports, coal, wool, and lamb will also gain [1][6]. Group 3: Strategic Context - The agreement reflects India's strategy to diversify its export destinations in response to high U.S. import tariffs and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][4]. - India is actively pursuing a broader network of free trade agreements to buffer external shocks and support its export growth targets, with ongoing negotiations with the EU, Chile, and Canada [3][8]. - The agreement with New Zealand is part of India's recent push to finalize multiple trade agreements, including those with the UAE, Australia, and the UK [9][10].

2025年12月18日 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：夜盘黑色推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：夜盘黑色推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 3 | | 硅铁：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 0. 92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 768. 0 | 7.0 | | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓( ...

Core Points - The National Standards Committee approved 60 new and revised standards during its 32nd council meeting, covering key sectors such as construction, chemicals, energy management, electrical and electronic products, automotive systems, cosmetics, wood products, and textiles [1] - The approved standards include 50 new international ISO and IEC standards, 1 revised Cambodian standard, and 9 amendments, all of which underwent rigorous review by relevant technical committees [1] - The adoption of these standards is crucial for Cambodia's industrial transformation, enhancing the country's commitment to innovation, safety, and sustainable development, thereby improving competitiveness in advanced manufacturing and emerging technologies [1] Industry Impact - The new standards align Cambodia with international best practices, supporting the country's goal of developing a safer, greener, and more competitive industrial economy [1] - The Minister of the National Security Council, Hem Vanndy, emphasized the importance of modern standards in driving Cambodia's industrial transformation and urged council members to raise awareness and understanding of the adopted standards within their respective sectors [1]

据交易所数据显示，12月15日，大自然林业(NWGL)开盘上涨6.03%，截至22:30，报1.23美元/股，成交 1013.0美元，总市值2036.04万美元。 财务数据显示，截至2024年12月31日，大自然林业收入总额2153.93万美元，同比减少15.39%；归母净 利润-872.85万美元，同比增长26.86%。 作者：行情君 资料显示，大自然林业集团有限公司是一家在英属维尔京群岛注册成立的境外控股母公司,主要由其境 内实体子公司大自然林业集团有限公司运营。大自然林业集团有限公司有限公司是一家垂直整合的林业 公司,专注于FSC业务运营,位于秘鲁。该公司生产一系列产品,包括原木、地板、锯材、再生木炭、合成 木炭、机制木炭和精油。集团在秘鲁拥有天然森林特许权和采伐权,占地面积约615,333公顷。该公司还 与秘鲁当地的森林所有者合作,并在法国参与木材拍卖,以供应原木。公司致力于森林的可持续经营,资源 的高效利用,新产品的不断开发,始终如一地为客户提供高品质的产品。其目标是成为木材行业的领导者, 并以合理的价格为客户提供可持续和高品质的木材产品。 本文源自：市场资讯 ...

欧盟为何在此时突然收手？四年间喊着"支持立陶宛"的口号，为何最后连体面的告别都不愿给？而立陶宛，这个当初主动挑事的国家，又将为自己的选择付 出怎样的代价？ 2025年12月1日，世界贸易组织官网弹出一则简短的"技术性通知"，欧盟正式终止对中国"对立陶宛实施经济胁迫"的调查。 没有激烈表态，没有后续预案，甚至没提立陶宛半个字，这场持续四年的外交闹剧就这么悄无声息地收尾，可细想之下，疑问却更浓。 欧盟这份终止调查的通知，字里行间都是"体面退场"的算计，官网原文仅用"经评估，现有证据不足以支撑调查继续推进"轻描淡写带过，却对背后的立陶宛 避而不谈。 更值得玩味的是，早在2025年9月，欧盟就已悄悄暂停与立陶宛的"贸易援助磋商"，当时给出的理由是"优先处理美欧关税分歧"，如今看来，这不过是提前 给立陶宛"断供"的信号。 这种"冷处理"背后，是欧盟清晰的利益权衡：对欧盟而言，立陶宛只是27个成员国里的"小角色"，而中国是年贸易额超8000亿欧元的重要伙伴。 当"盟友情面"与自身经济利益冲突时，"弃小保大"成了必然选择，就像一位欧盟内部官员私下透露的："我们不可能为了一个国家，赌上整个欧洲的制造业 供应链和出口市场"，而 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（12 月 4 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.06%，收报 3875.79 点；深 证成指涨 0.40%，收报 13006.72 点；创业板指涨 1.01%，收报 3067.48 点。沪深两市成交额仅有 15490 亿，较昨 日缩量 1210 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 4 日震荡整理。收盘 4546.57，环比上涨 15.52。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 4 日焦炭加权指数强势，收盘价 1704.6，环比上涨 33.6。 12 月 4 日，焦煤加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1143.8 元，环比上涨 21.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭:吨焦平均利润受上下游让利好转，开工略有回升，供给环比增加。上周铁水日均产量 234.68 万吨，环 比-1.6 万吨，铁水季节性下滑的后，刚需走弱，投机性需求随着煤价近期的补跌回落，上游焦化厂累库，港口 去库，下游累库，总库存基本持平。 客服产品系列•日评 焦煤：山西中硫主焦 1378，环比-3，蒙 ...

Group 1 - The US manufacturing index decreased from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months, indicating ongoing challenges for US factories due to import tariffs [1] - Only four industries experienced growth in November, including computers, electronics, and machinery, while several sectors such as wood, transportation, and apparel faced contraction [1] - Transportation equipment manufacturers are implementing structural adjustments in response to the tariff environment, including layoffs and shifting production overseas [1] Group 2 - Chemical product manufacturers report that tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to suppress demand for construction materials like adhesives [1] - Electrical equipment, appliance, and component manufacturers express concerns over a "chaotic trade environment" [1] - Other producers indicate that rising tariffs, government shutdowns, and increasing global uncertainty contribute to a persistently weak business environment [1] Group 3 - The US Supreme Court's recent questioning of the legality of Trump's tariffs has intensified speculation about potential overturning of these tariffs, which could lead to greater chaos [1] - Market expectations suggest that if the Supreme Court issues an unfavorable ruling, Trump may pivot to alternative trade strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. manufacturing sector has contracted for nine consecutive months, with the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 48.7 to 48.2 in November, indicating ongoing economic challenges due to tariff uncertainties and high production costs [1][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing Activity - The U.S. manufacturing PMI has decreased to 48.2, marking the largest contraction in factory activity in four months and the most significant drop in backlog orders in seven months [1][4]. - The manufacturing sector's contribution to the U.S. economy is approximately 10.1%, with only four industries, including computers and electronics, showing growth, while sectors like apparel and textiles are experiencing severe contractions [5]. Group 2: Impact of Tariffs - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to a decline in customer demand, with manufacturers delaying orders until costs are clearer [4][5]. - Since the Trump administration raised tariffs in April, many U.S. manufacturers have faced increased costs for raw materials sourced from abroad, contributing to the overall economic slowdown [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Sentiment - Manufacturers across various sectors, including wood products and chemicals, report low business confidence, with many only accepting short-term orders and lacking plans for inventory expansion [6]. - The electrical equipment and appliance manufacturers have expressed concerns over "trade chaos," while transportation equipment manufacturers are planning long-term changes due to the evolving tariff environment [6].

Core Insights - The US manufacturing sector shows signs of continued weakness in November, with the manufacturing index falling to 48.2, marking the largest contraction in four months and remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months [1][2] Group 1: Manufacturing Index and Economic Conditions - The ISM manufacturing index decreased by 0.5 points to 48.2, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector due to weak demand and cost pressures [1] - The "prices paid index" rose for the first time in five months, indicating a resurgence in raw material cost pressures, up approximately 8 points year-over-year [1] - New orders index experienced its fastest contraction since July, while backlog orders saw the largest decline in seven months [1] Group 2: Employment and Labor Market - About 25% of manufacturing firms reported job reductions in November, the highest proportion since mid-2020 [1] - Although the production index rebounded to its fastest expansion in four months, overall output remains volatile, unable to offset the pressures from declining orders and employment [1] Group 3: Industry Performance - In November, 11 manufacturing industries contracted, including apparel, wood, paper products, and textiles, while only four industries, such as computers and electronics, experienced growth, marking the lowest number in nearly a year [2] - The machinery sector reported extended import transportation times and customer demands for earlier deliveries due to tariff impacts [2] - The transportation equipment sector is undergoing structural adjustments, including layoffs and shifts to overseas production, in response to the tariff environment [2] Group 4: Supply Chain and Inventory - Supplier delivery times accelerated for the first time in four months, indicating some relief in supply chain pressures [2] - Manufacturers and customers continue to reduce inventory levels, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to October [2] - Overall, the US manufacturing sector is facing a "triple pressure" of weak demand, rising costs, and policy uncertainty, making a substantial turnaround unlikely in the short term [2]