Group 1: Market Overview - The equity market continues to rise, with equity funds showing a net value increase of 3.06%, particularly in the healthcare theme funds which have demonstrated significant performance advantages [2] - Passive funds are seeing a shift, with inflows into financial real estate and dividend-themed ETFs, while large-cap broad-based ETFs are experiencing outflows [2] Group 2: Industry Research - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan and an installed capacity of 60-81 million kilowatts, benefiting the "duopoly" in hydropower equipment [4] - The project is expected to generate substantial construction and material orders, significantly boosting infrastructure investment growth in China [5] Group 3: Real Estate Market - As of July 20, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 441,000 units, a decrease of 3.5%, while second-hand home transactions increased by 12.8% [6] Group 4: Steel Industry - The expectation for the exit of outdated production capacity has risen, with rebar prices reaching a new high since April 2025, indicating potential recovery in steel sector profitability [8] Group 5: Pharmaceutical Industry - The recent updates on the 2024 medical insurance fund and centralized procurement policies indicate a strong growth momentum for the innovative drug sector, with several companies successfully launching innovative drugs internationally [9] Group 6: Chemical Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a stable growth plan for the petrochemical industry, which is expected to optimize the industry structure by phasing out outdated production capacity [10] Group 7: Machinery Industry - The engineering machinery sector is anticipated to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung hydropower project, with domestic sales recovering and export volumes maintaining growth [10] Group 8: Company Research - The report on Mai Fushi indicates a strong market position due to its comprehensive product matrix and high customer retention, with projected revenues of 2.36 billion, 3.17 billion, and 4.13 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden surge in the stock price of Dongfang Electric, which rose over 700% due to a possible erroneous trade, reflects strong market sentiment and investor confidence in the stock despite the initial spike being attributed to a "fat finger" error [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Movement and Market Reaction - Dongfang Electric's stock price reached a peak of 119.9 HKD per share, a 520% increase from the previous transaction price of 19.32 HKD, and over 700% from the last closing price [2]. - Following the initial spike, the stock price quickly corrected, stabilizing with a current increase of around 60% [2]. - The surge was linked to the announcement of the Yajiang Hydropower Project, which significantly impacted the market, leading to a broad rally in related sectors such as water conservancy and infrastructure [2][3]. Group 2: Hydropower Project Significance - The Yarlung Tsangpo River, the largest river in Tibet, has significant hydropower potential, with an estimated 70 million kilowatts of technically exploitable resources, three times that of the Three Gorges Dam [4]. - Several hydropower stations are planned along the river, with a total installed capacity of approximately 4 GW, and an average investment of about 25 billion CNY per GW [4]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Impact - The total investment for the Yajiang Hydropower Project is projected to be 1.2 trillion CNY, with at least 15% allocated for construction equipment, translating to a demand of over 180 billion CNY for engineering machinery [5]. - The project is expected to accelerate construction within the year, significantly impacting national security, western development, and renewable energy sectors [5]. - The anticipated demand for large-tonnage equipment is expected to yield substantial profit margins, with a potential profit space exceeding 18 billion CNY based on a 10% net profit margin [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The overall economic strategy anticipates a collaborative effort between supply and demand sides, with new policies aimed at stabilizing key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials [6]. - The commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Project is expected to stimulate economic growth in the southwest region and drive demand across related industries [6].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Dongfang Electric (HK01072) experienced a significant and unusual spike, rising over 700% due to a suspected erroneous trade, which was later corrected, but the stock still closed with a substantial gain of 65.21% [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - At 9:30:22 AM, a trade occurred at 119.90 HKD per share for 400 shares, amounting to approximately 47,960 HKD, which was a drastic increase from the previous price of 19.32 HKD per share [1][2]. - Following the erroneous trade, the stock price quickly corrected to around 20.85 HKD per share [1]. - Despite the correction, Dongfang Electric closed at 24.65 HKD per share, reflecting a 65.21% increase [3]. Group 2: Market Context - The erroneous trade was speculated to be a result of a trader mistakenly entering 119.90 HKD instead of 19.90 HKD [2]. - The A-share of Dongfang Electric also hit the daily limit up, closing at 19.62 CNY [3]. - The opening of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project in Tibet contributed to a broader market rally in related sectors such as infrastructure and cement [3].

| 代码 | 名称 | | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 800000 | 恒生指数 | (0) | 24994.14 | +168.48 | 0.68% | | 800100 | 国企指数 | | 9040.20 | +53.73 | 0.60% | | 800700 | 恒生科技指数 | | 5585.50 | +46.67 | 0.84% | 盘面上，大型科技股普遍飘红，美团涨近3%，京东涨超2%，阿里巴巴、小米涨超1%。 雅鲁藏布江水电工程开工，涉1.2万亿投资，建材水泥股、钢铁股、风电股、大基建股等相关板块全天表现强势，其中，尤其是东方电气盘中一 度飙升超700%最终收涨65.2%，华新水泥飙涨85.6%，重庆钢铁大涨25.5%，山水水泥涨超23%，中铝国际、中国中铁、中国建筑国际等皆走强。 中资券商股、石油股、黄金股、煤炭股、内房股、海运股、家电股、军工股纷纷上涨。 今日，港股三大指数呈现V型走势，国企指数、恒生科技指数午后一度转跌，最终分别收涨0.6%及0.84%，恒生指数涨0.68%盘中一度站上25000 点 ...

2. 汇丰：日本央行干预美元/日元的"底线"可能在155—160之间 汇丰银行的多元宇宙模型认为，美元/日元的合理估值将在146—152区间内，但同时警告称，一系列政 治、宏观经济和政策变化可能引发日元反弹。其中最关键的因素包括美日贸易协议、美联储重启宽松政 策或日本直接干预外汇市场。美日贸易协议若达成且关税低于预期，或将缓解财政担忧，并重燃日本央 行加息预期，给日元带来上行潜力。美联储预计在9月降息，也给日元带来上行风险。另外，若美元/日 元汇率在155-160之间，可能触发日本财政部的外汇干预。由于美国对货币操纵的审查，这一干预门槛 可能已经降低 。 国外 1. 美银：贸易战冲击"美国例外论"，美股全球资金占比骤降 美国银行的策略师表示，随着贸易战引发了对所谓"美国例外论"的质疑，流向美国的全球股市资金占比 在2025年大幅下降。美国银行团队在一份报告中援引EPFR Global的数据称，今年迄今为止，美国股票 基金仅吸引了不到一半的全球资金流入，而2024年这一比例为72%。过去三个月，外国资金流入放缓至 不足20亿美元，而今年1月则为340亿美元。特朗普不稳定的贸易政策、不断膨胀的财政赤字和不断贬值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly enhance electricity supply and contribute to carbon neutrality goals. The project will utilize abundant hydropower resources and promote the development of solar and wind energy in the surrounding areas [3]. - The project has an installed capacity of nearly 70 million kilowatts and an annual power generation capacity of 300 billion kilowatt-hours, which can meet the annual electricity needs of 300 million people and replace 90 million tons of standard coal, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 300 million tons [3]. - The project is anticipated to strengthen the synergy between computing and electricity, benefiting the AIDC computing power industry chain [3]. Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project involves the construction of five cascade power stations and is expected to take about 10 years to complete, with production anticipated to start after 2035 [3]. - The project will enhance the utilization of "West-to-East Power Transmission" and support the national strategy of "East Data West Calculation" [3]. Investment Insights - The total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan may be adjusted upwards, with the investment in power transmission and transformation estimated to reach between 189 billion to 315 billion yuan [3]. - The report suggests that the actual investment may exceed initial estimates due to construction difficulties and uncertainties related to interest rates [3]. Beneficiaries in the Industry - The hydropower equipment supply chain is expected to benefit, with key players including Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and Harbin Electric, among others [3]. - The report highlights the stable demand for high-voltage transmission equipment and identifies major suppliers such as State Grid NARI, China XD Electric, and others as potential beneficiaries [3]. - The GIL (Gas Insulated Transmission Line) segment is entering a long-term growth cycle, with companies like China XD Electric and Pinggao Electric expected to benefit from the Yarlung Zangbo project [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the hydropower equipment and high-voltage equipment supply chains, specifically mentioning companies like Dongfang Electric, Shanghai Electric, and State Grid NARI [3]. - It also suggests monitoring the AIDC industry chain, including companies like Megmeet and Jinpan Technology [3].

Group 1 - Meituan-W (03690) rose nearly 4% as regulatory discussions with food delivery platforms suggest a slowdown in subsidy wars, which may benefit Meituan's user experience rebound [1] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project commenced with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, equivalent to the construction of three Three Gorges projects [1] - Cement stocks surged in the Hong Kong market, with Huaxin Cement (06655) increasing over 29% following the hydropower project announcement [1] - Stablecoin concept stocks strengthened after Trump signed a stablecoin bill, with Huajian Medical (01931) rising over 23% [1] - UBTECH (09880) saw a nearly 10% increase after winning a major procurement order for humanoid robots worth nearly 100 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Nongfu Spring (09633) increased over 3% as analysts believe the company will benefit from competitive public sentiment, indicating a strong business recovery [2] - Xintong Medical-B (02160) rose over 5% as MicroPort plans to inject its CRM business into Xintong Medical, aiding in the establishment of a heart disease product platform [2] - Oil stocks generally rose, with Sinopec (00386) increasing nearly 4% after Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of the year [2] - Chinese brokerage stocks remained active, with major brokerages reporting a year-on-year net profit growth of 50%-80% for the first half of the year [2] Group 3 - Netflix (NFLX.US) fell over 5% as investors had overly high expectations for Q2 performance, despite revenue growth of 15.9% year-on-year to $11.08 billion [3] - Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US) rose 7.77% as Q2 profits and revenues increased [4] - Blaize Holdings (BZAI.US) surged 58.75% after securing a $120 million AI infrastructure contract [4] - OpenDoor Technologies (OPEN.US) jumped 36.36% as interest in the platform surged significantly on social media [4] - Talen Energy (TLN.US) rose 24.48% to a record high after announcing a $3.5 billion acquisition of two gas power plants, expected to boost free cash flow per share by over 40% [4] - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) increased 7% as Barclays highlighted its potential for accelerated growth as a leading online brokerage in Asia [4]

Macro Insights - The recent increase in port activity suggests a high export sentiment ahead of tariff exemptions, with June exports supporting industrial production recovery [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce growth stabilization measures for ten key industries, indicating a rise in "anti-involution" policies and price increases in the black and photovoltaic supply chains [2] Market Strategy - A-share market shows signs of strength, with a shift towards large-cap growth stocks. The "anti-involution" sectors are expected to see valuation recovery, supporting market momentum [3] - Mid-year financial data indicates a strong performance, improving mid-term profit expectations across the A-share market. Focus on sectors like aviation equipment, wind power, and storage for potential growth [3] Fixed Income Insights - Investors exhibit a preference for equities over bonds, with expectations of stable economic production but weak demand. The bond market remains in a volatile state, with a focus on long-term and ultra-long-term bonds [7] - The recent survey indicates a strong interest in macro topics such as consumption policies and tariff negotiations, with a stable funding environment supporting bond market demand [7] Power Equipment and Renewable Energy - The commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to generate significant investment opportunities, with estimated project values between 53.5 billion and 95.4 billion [9] - Leading companies in the sector, such as Dongfang Electric and Harbin Electric, are anticipated to benefit from sustained order growth, potentially alleviating market concerns regarding order sustainability [9] Transportation and Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing growth driven by strong online consumption, with courier volumes showing significant year-on-year increases. The "anti-involution" initiative is expected to stabilize end-user pricing, benefiting major logistics companies [10] Semiconductor Industry - TSMC reported a strong Q2 performance with revenues of USD 30.07 billion, exceeding guidance due to robust demand for advanced nodes. The company raised its 2025 revenue growth forecast to approximately 30% [16] - The anticipated growth in AI demand is expected to drive revenue increases in advanced process technologies, with a positive outlook for TSMC's operational performance [16] Consumer Goods - The dairy industry is undergoing a restructuring phase, with expectations of a return to supply-demand balance by 2026. The recovery in raw milk prices is projected to positively impact upstream dairy farming profits [12] - Major players like Yili and Mengniu are expected to benefit from improved profit margins as the industry stabilizes and demand recovers [12]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report indicates a seasonal rebound in high-frequency indicators, with consumer performance remaining strong. The domestic economic growth momentum is improving, as evidenced by the positive shift in the macro diffusion index [8][9] - The report predicts an upward trend in the ten-year government bond yield and a downward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index for the week of July 25, 2025 [8] Industry and Company - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is expected to see increased demand for distribution equipment due to the approval of China's first cross-regional green electricity direct connection project [24] - The securities industry is experiencing a revival in equity refinancing, with several firms announcing plans to raise capital to support business expansion and innovation [26][27] - In the telecommunications sector, companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinye Sheng are forecasting significant profit growth for the first half of 2025, driven by demand for high-speed optical modules [28] - Dongfang Electric is poised to benefit from the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with expected profit growth in the coming years [32] - Teruid's performance is projected to grow rapidly, with a forecasted net profit increase of 50%-80% for the first half of 2025, supported by strong overseas expansion [34][35] Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is seeing strong demand for allocation, with a notable increase in the average price of convertible bonds and a decrease in the average conversion premium [13][14] - The report highlights the performance of various sectors, with semiconductor products and equipment, automotive, and software sectors receiving significant capital inflows [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project on July 19 is expected to boost the hydropower equipment sector, with a conservative estimate of the total value of turbine and generator business ranging from 53.5 billion to 95.4 billion yuan, potentially becoming a new growth point for hydropower equipment after 2030 [1] Industry Summary - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is projected to significantly enhance the capacity utilization rate of the hydropower equipment industry [1] - Industry leaders' valuations currently reflect market concerns regarding the sustainability of orders, but there is potential for gradual recovery as orders exceed expectations in the future [1]