Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on key sectors such as **real estate**, **consumption**, and **foreign trade**. Key Points and Arguments Economic Performance - The overall economic fundamentals in China have not significantly changed compared to last year, with manufacturing PMI showing a recovery trend since Q4 of the previous year, but not exceeding last year's levels [1][2] - Real estate performance has shown resilience, particularly in the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities, with transaction growth noted in 15 cities [1][2] - The number of listings in the real estate market has rebounded significantly, although second to fifth-tier cities have shown a temporary rebound followed by a decline [2] Consumption Trends - Consumption during the Spring Festival has highlighted structural strengths, particularly in tourism and entertainment, with notable increases in travel revenue and box office sales [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy has been a significant driver of consumption since its implementation in September last year, leading to a notable increase in sales for related products [4][5] - The overall consumption growth is expected to contribute positively to the economy, with projections indicating a potential increase in retail sales growth by 1.3% to 2.7% this year [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales area since June last year, and a corresponding reduction in price declines observed since November [7][8] - The performance of second-hand homes is outpacing new homes, indicating a shift in market dynamics [8] - The financial health of real estate companies remains a concern, with many showing a contraction in cash flow and overall financial stability [9][10] Foreign Trade and External Factors - The impact of foreign trade has been more optimistic than previously anticipated, with expectations of extended "export rush" effects due to tariff policies [11][12] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on GDP is relatively minor, with estimates suggesting only a 0.16% impact from the latest tariff increases [12][14] - The depreciation of the RMB may serve as a buffer against tariff impacts, with a controlled depreciation expected to mitigate some of the adverse effects [14][15] Price Trends and Inflation - Price levels are expected to remain low, with potential for recovery in service prices, particularly in tourism and household services [17][19] - The current capacity utilization rates are low, which historically correlates with negative PPI growth, indicating a need for policy intervention to stimulate production [18][19] Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policy framework is characterized by a clear focus on high-quality development, with proactive measures anticipated to support consumption and address capacity issues [20][21] - Fiscal policy is expected to see an increase in deficit rates and spending, with projections indicating a rise in the deficit to between 5.6 trillion to 6.4 trillion yuan [23][24] - The government is likely to enhance transfer payments to local governments to alleviate fiscal pressures and support basic public services [27] Conclusion - The overall outlook for the Chinese economy remains cautious but with some optimistic indicators, particularly in consumption and real estate stabilization. The effectiveness of policy measures in addressing structural issues will be critical for sustained economic growth [20][21][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The A - share market withstood the downward pressure from reciprocal tariffs, and the implied volatility significantly declined. After the multi - department "stabilizing the market" combination punches since April 7, market confidence was greatly boosted. It is recommended to cautiously go long, focusing on China's policies to boost the domestic economy [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Series**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3712.20, 3699.80, 3673.00, and 3624.00 respectively, with increases of 53.80, 54.80, 52.80, and 56.20. The trading volumes were 51403.00, 6892.00, 83748.00, and 15704.00, and the positions were 72066.00, 13205.00, 141689.00, and 54672.00, with position changes of - 7839.00, - 46.00, - 8901.00, and - 2634.00 [1] - **IH Series**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2598.40, 2596.00, 2582.20, and 2553.00, with increases of 22.40, 22.00, 19.00, and 19.20. The trading volumes were 23535.00, 3041.00, 43873.00, and 8311.00, and the positions were 27480.00, 5453.00, 48237.00, and 19584.00, with position changes of - 5513.00, - 153.00, - 10558.00, and - 750.00 [1] - **IC Series**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 5509.00, 5452.20, 5381.20, and 5259.60, with increases of 100.60, 102.00, 104.00, and 103.00. The trading volumes were 60899.00, 7746.00, 53950.00, and 12652.00, and the positions were 65270.00, 15766.00, 97111.00, and 45043.00, with position changes of - 12254.00, 578.00, - 7542.00, and - 1801.00 [1] - **IM Series**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 5744.80, 5666.20, 5578.20, and 5419.00, with increases of 134.80, 130.60, 127.20, and 125.20. The trading volumes were 96804.00, 14381.00, 222566.00, and 35576.00, and the positions were 92361.00, 20103.00, 174420.00, and 72984.00, with position changes of - 14457.00, 452.00, - 10128.00, and - 4151.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 12.40, - 2.40, - 56.80, and - 78.60 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 14.80, 0.60, - 55.20, and - 80.20 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 3686.79, 2612.62, 5439.77, and 5784.59, with increases of 0.99%, 0.60%, 2.12%, and 2.34% respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 had different performance. For example, the raw materials industry increased by 2.79%, the optional consumption industry increased by 2.23%, while the energy industry decreased by 0.33% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The current basis values of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts against their corresponding spot indexes changed compared with the previous two - day values, showing different convergence or divergence trends [1] 3.4 Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3186.81, 9539.89, 5937.04, and 1858.36, with increases of 1.31%, 1.22%, 0.90%, and 0.98% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 20264.49, 31714.03, 5456.90, and 19670.88, with increases of 0.68%, - 3.93%, 9.52%, and - 3.00% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's March CPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing; PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. The core CPI increased by 0.5% year - on - year [2] - The US March CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, significantly lower than the previous month's 2.8%, and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than market expectations [2] - More than 450 listed companies have obtained bank stock repurchase and increase loans, with a total loan limit of over 90 billion yuan [2] - China will improve the modern national export control system, and the stance on the US tariff war is that China is not afraid to fight back [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The new mechanism for toll roads encourages private enterprises to participate, and prohibits using BT models to变相 raise debts [2] - China's new energy storage industry is developing rapidly, with a new energy storage installed capacity of over 75 million kilowatts by the end of February [2] - China will moderately reduce the import of US films due to the US tariff policy [2] - Beijing plans to achieve large - scale 5G applications by the end of 2027 [2]