Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the textile manufacturing sector, indicating a potential increase in market sentiment due to recent tariff adjustments by the US [1][12][13]. Core Insights - The textile manufacturing sector has seen a significant recovery in market sentiment, with key companies experiencing notable stock price increases from June 20 to July 26, with cumulative gains of 24.84% for Crystal International, 12.93% for Huayi Group, and 11.24% for Shenzhou International [1][9][10]. - Recent adjustments in US tariffs have reduced uncertainty, with the new rates set between 15% to 50%, which is significantly lower than previously proposed rates [12][13]. - The introduction of HiveCOL collagen by Jinbo Biotech represents a breakthrough in the anti-aging market, utilizing 100% humanized technology to address issues related to animal collagen [14][15]. Industry Data Tracking - In June, clothing retail saw a year-on-year growth of 1.9%, but a month-on-month decline due to factors such as the early 618 shopping festival and adverse weather conditions affecting foot traffic [16][29]. - The prices of raw materials remained stable, with fluctuations in cotton prices and a noted decrease in the price difference between domestic and imported cotton [18][21]. - The cosmetics retail sector experienced a decline of 2.3% year-on-year, while gold and jewelry retail grew by 6.1% year-on-year, indicating differing consumer trends [29]. Investment Recommendations - For clothing brands, Hai Lan Home is recommended for its strong profitability and potential for expansion in the outlet market, while Li Ning is seen as having a potential turning point in its operations [37][39]. - In the beauty sector, Jinbo Biotech is highlighted for its strong data resilience and upcoming product launches, while the gold and jewelry sector remains attractive due to rising gold prices, with recommendations for brands like Laopu Gold [39][40]. Market Review and News - The textile manufacturing sector saw a 2.34% increase in the last week, with notable performances from companies like Tianhong International and Langsha [40][44]. - Recent industry news includes the announcement of the "2024 Industry Top 100" by the China National Garment Association, with a slight decline in overall performance compared to 2023 [49][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential growth in the AI education sector, with companies like DouShen Education and ShengTong launching new AI products that are expected to see significant revenue growth [2][21] - The tourism sector is anticipated to benefit from the summer peak season, with a focus on IP integration in tourism experiences, particularly in regions like Changbai Mountain and Emei Mountain [3][47] - The collectible toy market is projected to see revenue increases due to summer exhibitions and favorable consumer policies, with companies like Pop Mart expected to benefit from new product launches [4] - The medical beauty industry is experiencing optimization through refined operations, with new product launches expected to enhance market share for leading institutions [5] - The beauty and personal care sector is witnessing significant growth, with companies like Ruyuchen and Plant Doctor expected to report strong mid-year results [5] Summary by Sections Education - DouShen Education's new AI product "Super Training Ground" aims to address common writing challenges faced by students, utilizing AI to enhance personalized learning [16] - ShengTong Education has launched a new AI education platform that integrates advanced technologies to improve students' tech literacy [17][23] - The report suggests monitoring the revenue growth potential of AI education products from key players like DouShen Education and ShengTong [21] Tourism - The report notes a slight increase in travel despite adverse weather conditions in Q2, with a focus on summer tourism in regions like Western China and Changbai Mountain [3][47] - The integration of IP with scenic spots is highlighted as a new consumer trend, with recommendations to focus on companies like Emei Mountain A and HaiChang Ocean Park [3][47] Collectible Toys - The report emphasizes the rapid revenue growth of LeZiTianCheng, a leading IP toy company, with a significant increase in overseas market revenue [48] - The company is noted for its diverse product offerings and strong IP strategy, which is expected to drive future growth [49] Medical Beauty - The report indicates that leading medical beauty institutions are likely to capture more market share due to refined operational strategies and new product launches [5] - Companies like Jinbo Bio and SiHuan Pharma are recommended for monitoring in the upcoming quarters [5] Beauty and Personal Care - Ruyuchen is projected to report a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with growth rates between 61.81% and 100.33% [5] - The Plant Doctor is noted for its unique product offerings and potential to become a leading single-brand beauty stock in the A-share market [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The return of everyday dining and the rise of home-cooked meals are significant trends, with the market for casual dining exceeding 1.2 trillion RMB, emphasizing high cost-performance [5][58] - The creator economy, particularly in the music streaming sector, is experiencing stable growth, with platforms enhancing their bargaining power through non-music content [22][24] - The casual dining market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.1% from 2023 to 2028, reaching 55.87 billion RMB by 2028 [56][58] Summary by Sections 1. Trend in Casual Dining - The average spending on Chinese dining has decreased from 87.6 RMB in 2023 to 79.2 RMB in 2024, a decline of 9.6% [53][55] - The casual dining market is characterized by a shift towards high cost-performance and practicality, with a significant increase in home cooking frequency [53][56] - The market for affordable casual dining (under 100 RMB per meal) is the largest segment, accounting for 88.7% of the total dining market, with a current size of 36.18 billion RMB [56][58] 2. Creator Economy and Music Streaming - The global music streaming market is projected to reach over 20.4 billion USD in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [27][30] - Subscription users in the music streaming sector are expected to grow to 263 million in 2024, reflecting an increase of 11% year-on-year [30] - Spotify's market penetration in emerging markets is driving user growth, with a CAGR of 35% from 2021 to 2025 [26][30] 3. Trends in Toy and Creator Economy - The online sales of trendy toys in June 2025 reached 1.348 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 16% [12][14] - The sales of blind boxes and plush toys showed strong performance, with blind boxes growing by 109% year-on-year [12][13] - The creator economy is bolstered by the growth of non-music content, enhancing platforms' bargaining power [22][24] 4. Beauty and Personal Care Market - The skincare market on Tmall has seen a concentration increase, with the top 20 brands accounting for 46.2% of the total GMV [66] - Domestic brands have seen a decline in both quantity and market share, while international brands have experienced double-digit growth [66][67]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in domestic theme park bookings for the summer of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 70% in orders, particularly for major global players like Universal Studios Beijing and Shanghai Disneyland [2][3] - The report also notes that local IP parks, such as the Pop Mart City Park, have gained popularity, with a 600% increase in bookings in June, placing it among the top 10 summer theme parks [2][3] - The report discusses the strong performance of the AI creative tool Figma, which is preparing for an IPO with a projected valuation of $20 billion, showcasing a 48% revenue growth in 2024 [4][26] Summary by Sections 1. Travel and Leisure - The summer theme park bookings have surged, with a 70% increase in orders compared to the previous year, and surrounding hotel bookings have also risen by approximately 40% [2][3] - The opening of the Shanghai Lego Park has further boosted regional hotel bookings by 350% [13][14] 2. Trendy Toys - The Sanrio 2025 Character Awards have seen record global voting numbers, indicating sustained popularity and engagement with the brand [17][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of anniversary celebrations for IP operations, with significant events planned for characters like Melody and Kuromi [25][27] 3. AI and Creative Tools - Figma, a leading AI creative tool, is set to go public, with a revenue of $749 million projected for 2024, reflecting a 48% year-on-year increase [4][26] - The company has a strong customer base, serving 95% of the Fortune 500 companies, and has shown a net dollar retention rate of 125% [26][30] 4. Coffee and Tea - Luckin Coffee has expanded into the U.S. market with two new stores in New York, utilizing a digital-first approach to minimize costs [36][41] - The average monthly store efficiency for Luckin Coffee reached 247,000 yuan, marking a 13.4% year-on-year increase [41][44] 5. Instant Retail - The competition between Alibaba and Meituan in the food delivery sector has intensified, with significant subsidies being offered to consumers [45][47] - On July 5, Meituan reported over 120 million orders in a single day, indicating a surge in demand [47][53] 6. Beauty and Personal Care - The report highlights the dominance of the domestic brand Han Shu in the Douyin platform, achieving over 700 million yuan in sales in June [53][54] - The beauty category on Douyin saw a GMV exceeding 20 billion yuan in June, with Han Shu leading the market [53][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry [6][10]. Core Insights - The media industry is expected to benefit from the integration of AI applications, particularly with the launch of GPT-5 and AI glasses, which are anticipated to drive new consumption patterns and enhance content creation across various sectors [5][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leveraging IP (Intellectual Property) to stimulate consumer spending and highlights the potential of AI to improve operational efficiency and create innovative applications [5][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Review - The media sector has shown significant performance, with a 47.3% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices [2][15]. - The gaming index has seen substantial growth, while the animation index has experienced a decline [15][24]. 2. Key Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks within the media sector, including Tianzhou Culture, Wanda Film, and Mango Super Media, highlighting their potential for financial recovery and growth through AI integration [6][10]. 3. AI Glasses and Applications - AI glasses are positioned as a new focus for the summer season, with companies like Xiaomi and Rokid launching new products that enhance user interaction and content consumption [5][16]. - The report discusses the potential market expansion for AI glasses as they reach a technological tipping point, with applications in daily life and creative processes [16]. 4. Upcoming Market Trends - The report anticipates a surge in AI applications across various fields, including digital marketing, education, and entertainment, driven by the release of GPT-5 and advancements in AI technology [17][18]. - The summer box office is projected to benefit from new film releases, with total box office earnings exceeding 2 billion yuan as of early July 2025 [28][31]. 5. Company Performance and Forecasts - The report provides detailed earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the media sector, with expected EPS growth in the coming years [10][18].

Core Insights - The report by QianGua Data focuses on the popular industries on the Xiaohongshu platform for the first half of 2025, covering sectors such as fashion, beauty, food, parenting, home, and outdoor activities [1][6][2] Group 1: Fashion Industry - The fashion industry on Xiaohongshu has an average monthly interaction of over 150 million for "grass-planting" notes, with a commercial note count increasing by over 20% [9][10] - Key categories include clothing (43.50%), jewelry (35.08%), and bags (6.70%), with jewelry notes seeing a growth of over five times [9][10] - The trend emphasizes a "light and flowing" style, with significant engagement on topics like "vacation outfits" and "breathable materials," indicating a shift towards casual elegance [12][13] Group 2: Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty sector shows an average monthly interaction of over 100 million for "grass-planting" notes, with a growth rate of over 45% for popular content [16][17] - Major categories include color cosmetics (47.63%), skincare (28.86%), and personal cleaning products (24.09%), reflecting a competitive landscape [16][17] - Trends highlight a preference for "light makeup" and "convenient products," with new product forms like makeup accessories gaining traction [19][20] Group 3: Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector has an average monthly interaction of 280 million for "grass-planting" notes, with commercial note counts increasing by over 40% [24][25] - Key categories include fresh fruits and vegetables (8.66%), snacks (24.44%), and grains (23.80%), with fresh produce leading in engagement [24][25] - The focus is shifting towards health-conscious choices, with a growing interest in herbal ingredients and clean labels, indicating a transformation in consumer expectations [27][28] Group 4: Parenting and Childcare - The parenting industry has seen a 25% increase in commercial note counts and a 57% rise in average monthly shares compared to the previous year [31][32] - Key categories include children's toys, clothing, and books, with a notable emphasis on quality and essential products [31][32] - The trend is moving towards "simplified parenting," where parents prioritize essential items that provide high value and meet core needs [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the consumer landscape in China, highlighting the shift from traditional brands to domestic brands driven by the new generation of consumers, particularly the Z generation, who prioritize practicality and value over brand prestige [3][4]. Group 1: Key Trends in New Consumption - The new consumption trend is characterized by a collective disillusionment with foreign brands, as consumers increasingly favor domestic products that offer better value for money [6][7]. - The rise of domestic brands is not driven by nationalism but by a rationalist approach to consumption, leading to a K-shaped differentiation among domestic brands, where innovative brands thrive while traditional ones decline [12][13]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a significant shift towards domestic electric vehicles, with domestic brands capturing over 60% of the market share by 2024, driven by advancements in technology and consumer preferences [9][10]. Group 2: Changes in Consumer Behavior - New consumers are increasingly focused on self-satisfaction, leading to a redefinition of social interactions and consumption patterns, where personal happiness takes precedence over societal expectations [28][32]. - The tourism industry is experiencing a boom, with record-high participation rates, reflecting the desire for personal experiences despite economic constraints [30][32]. - The rise of the "single economy" and "宅经济" (home economy) is reshaping consumer demands, with a preference for personalized, convenient products and services [34][35]. Group 3: Channel Dynamics - Traditional retail channels are rapidly declining as new consumption models emerge, exemplified by the success of snack wholesale stores that offer lower prices and a wider variety of products [20][23]. - The shift towards instant retail is gaining momentum, with projections indicating that the market will exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, highlighting a significant change in consumer purchasing behavior [36][37]. - The article emphasizes the need for brands to adapt to the changing landscape, as traditional strategies become less effective in the face of evolving consumer preferences [27].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the outdoor apparel sector, particularly with the anticipated IPO of Berghaus, which is expected to boost market sentiment [10][19]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector showed strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands gaining momentum and top brands maintaining a stable market position [1]. - Berghaus, a leading high-performance outdoor apparel brand, reported a revenue of 1.766 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 94.5% year-on-year increase, with a three-year CAGR of 116% [2][11]. - The report highlights the growth of domestic beauty brands during the 618 festival, with significant sales increases across various platforms [1][2]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, aided by favorable weather and the early 618 promotions [20][23]. - The report tracks various industry segments, indicating a stable upward trend in outdoor sports, beauty, and medical aesthetics sectors, while other segments like textile raw materials are under slight pressure [3]. Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, the report recommends brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and has strong profitability potential [4][31]. - In the beauty sector, it suggests focusing on companies like Juzhi Biotechnology and Jinbo Biotechnology, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [4][31]. Market Review and News - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 5.12% in the recent week, with specific companies like Li Ning and Fengzhu Textile showing positive performance [5][27]. - It also highlights the digital transformation initiatives in the textile industry, aiming for over 70% digitalization in key business processes by 2027 [33].

Group 1 - The new consumption sector has shown remarkable performance this year, with leading stocks like Pop Mart and Laopu Gold experiencing significant price increases, leading to some funds with heavy investments in this sector seeing net value growth exceeding 60% [1][2] - As of June 12, 2023, Laopu Gold's stock price has increased by over 280%, while Pop Mart's stock price has risen by more than 190% [2] - Funds heavily invested in the new consumption sector, such as Shenwan Lingxin LeRong One-Year Holding Mixed Fund, have reported returns of 65.81%, while Hengyue Craftsman Preferred One-Year Holding Mixed Fund achieved returns of 62.56% [2] Group 2 - The rise of the new consumption sector is attributed to its ability to capture alpha opportunities through structural variables, targeting new consumer groups and channels, leading to relatively rapid growth [3] - The underlying logic of high-performing categories, such as pet products and trendy toys, is based on the replacement of existing market segments, driven by changes in population structure [3] - The analysis of new consumption products should focus more on consumer behavior rather than traditional channel research, as different products have core target consumer groups with common factors influencing their preferences [4] Group 3 - The investment landscape for new consumption companies can be divided into two categories: those with limited ability to revise profit forecasts, which may carry bubble risks, and those whose stock price increases are driven by continuous upward revisions of profit forecasts, presenting good investment opportunities [5] - The sectors with promising growth potential include trendy toys, beauty products, and gold jewelry, as well as companies in feed, complete vehicles, and personal care that are gaining market share through competitive advantages [5]

证券研究报告 策略 TMT 和先进制造景气回升 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 12 日│中国内地 策略月报 核心观点 我们的中观景气模型显示，5 月全行业景气指数小幅回落，但下行斜率放缓。 分板块看，大金融、TMT、先进制造景气明显回升，景气改善或有一定持续 性的品种包括：1）TMT：AI 产业趋势方兴未艾，元件-存储链、通信设备、 游戏（新增）景气爬坡，软件景气筑底；2）制造：部分先进制造产能出清 或准出清，且需求有企稳迹象，如通用、自动化景气爬坡，风电、光伏、航 空装备景气回升；3）消费：新消费和大众品率先改善，美护、饰品（新增） 景气爬坡，啤酒（新增）、调味品、乳制品景气回升；4）其它：医药（投融 资周期回暖）、保险（新增）、电力（新增）景气回升，贵金属维持高位。 TMT：元件-存储链、通信设备、游戏景气爬坡，软件景气筑底 AI Agent 渗透率处于"奇点时刻"，海外 AI 资本开支有韧性，大模型迭代等 产业催化密集：1）元件-存储链：上游 PCB 台股 4 月营收同比增速回升； 中游 DXI 指数同比增速连续 3 个月回升，DRAM 价格同比降幅收窄，存储 周期有企稳回升迹象；2）通信设备：4 月 ...