"提振、细化、聚焦"——从中央经济工作会议及 11 月经 济指标明确消费主线 20251216 摘要 内需已成共识，各级政府通过细化政策提升获得感，财政与货币协同、 地方政府内卷及新增供给刺激是主要驱动力。关注政策对情绪和估值的 抬升，而非过度解读短期社零数据波动。 预计 2026、2027 年服务消费政策将迎来密集落地期，关注长假、春/ 秋假推广、带薪休假落实等细节性政策，为旅游等服务消费提供时间保 障，利好 OTA 公司及景区类公司。 看好职业教育机构受益于服务型消费政策，纺织服装行业冬装去库存预 期较好，关注家纺龙头企业及具有国际化多品牌发展的运动品牌，黄金 珠宝行业关注品牌差异化公司及困境反转潜力股。 零售业受益于内需主导政策和超长春节假期，CPI 向好将拉动超市板块 收益，关注重点区域零售公司。美护领域亦是促进内需的重要抓手，关 注已递交招股书的美妆企业。 家电行业经历补贴退坡后的脉冲式下滑后有望回稳，产品结构升级趋势 延续，长期进入后补贴时代，线下消费及服务消费补贴力度或加强，关 注白电龙头及新兴智能硬件领域。 Q&A 如何解读近期中央经济工作会议的精神及其对未来经济的影响？ 本次中央经济工作会议 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the AI wave will benefit from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026, leading to a differentiation and value transformation in the AI sector [1][3] - The report suggests that the Hong Kong stock market will continue its bull run, driven by earnings and liquidity, with significant potential for both earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in large-cap growth and dividend assets [1][11] - Investment strategies focus on generating excess returns from "growth momentum + value reconstruction dividends," with optimism for AI investments, military technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][15] Group 2 - In 2026, the U.S. is expected to experience liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar improving global liquidity [2][3] - The AI technology wave is viewed as a "rigid bubble" in the context of great power competition, with concerns about bubbles potentially leading to differentiation and value transformation in the AI market [2][3] - The report draws parallels between the current AI wave and the internet boom of the late 1990s, suggesting that macroeconomic conditions and Federal Reserve policies will differ significantly from those in the early 2000s [3] Group 3 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted as a policy driver for China's economic structure in 2026, emphasizing high-quality development and structural opportunities in the stock market [4][6] - Key areas of focus include high-level technological self-reliance, stimulating domestic demand, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [5][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 indicates a weak recovery with improving inflation, which may enhance investment opportunities [6] Group 4 - The expectation of a stronger renminbi in 2026 is supported by multiple favorable factors, including the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar and the recovery of nominal economic indicators in China [7][8] - There is an anticipated trend of foreign capital returning to the Chinese stock market, driven by the renminbi appreciation and improved asset attractiveness [8][9] - The report notes that the significant wealth in Chinese households presents further potential for equity market allocation [8][10] Group 5 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to maintain its bull market in 2026, benefiting from expectations of recovery in mainland China and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [11][12] - The report indicates that the market structure in 2025 suggests significant potential for earnings and valuation improvements, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and healthcare [11][12] - The investment strategy emphasizes patience and caution, with a focus on sectors that can attract both domestic and foreign capital [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][29]. Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference prioritized domestic demand, emphasizing the need to build a strong domestic market and implement measures to boost consumption [3][23]. - In November 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, with the core CPI rising by 1.2% [3][23]. - The report highlights significant investments in the beauty care sector, including Proya's acquisition of a stake in Beijing Huaguan Biotechnology and L'Oréal increasing its stake in Galderma to 20% [3][23][29]. Market Performance - During the week of December 8-12, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced declines of 0.21%, 0.76%, and 1.64% respectively [14][15]. - Notably, the education and general retail sub-sectors saw increases of 1.58% and 1.37% [15][18]. Key Industry Events and News - The National Retail Innovation Development Conference emphasized a shift towards quality-driven and service-driven retail, aiming for high-quality development [4][27]. - The report notes a significant increase in card trading on platforms like Xianyu, with a 21% year-on-year growth in trading volume for the first three quarters of 2025 [4][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies for investment, including Proya, Giant Bio, Marubi, Runben, Chaohongji, and Furuida, focusing on sectors with growth potential [5][29].

国金证券发布研报称，上美股份(02145)为我国美护行业领先企业，旗下拥有在护肤、婴童护理、洗护 等赛道的多品牌矩阵。公司以线上渠道为主，考虑到多品牌增长势能强劲，无论是韩束未来的发展以及 新品牌培育都具备较强的确定性，给予公司2025年PE30倍估值，目标价109.78港元，首次覆盖，给 予"买入"评级。 国金证券主要观点如下： 洗护业务：有望诞生大品牌。1)垂类赛道较多，定位清晰且善于建设消费者心智的品牌能够脱颖而出， 公司极方、2032等洗护品牌有望复刻韩束、一页等品牌的方法论。2)公司切入功效防脱等增速更快的赛 道，且行业集中度较高，有助于孵化大品牌。 盈利预测估值 复盘公司发展的历程，该行认为公司多品牌拓展方法论与运动龙头安踏体育有几个主要相似之处 1)市场化主导。公司旗下品牌定位精准，可以快速发掘消费者痛点，推出针对性产品的同时进行魄力营 销，绑定顶流IP，助力品牌快速破圈。主品牌韩束成功后将这一方法论推广到其他品牌。 2)渠道精细化运营趋势。随着内容电商成为化妆品消费的核心场景，公司以抖音为核心重构渠道战略， 通过创新营销玩法与提升自播比例等精细化运营，实现收入与利润的双高增长。 3)人才内部输 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the growth in tourism between China and Cambodia, driven by the new visa-free policy, which is expected to boost tourist flows [5][15] - The breakfast market in China is identified as a significant opportunity, with major brands like Mixue and Guoming entering the segment [6][33] - The education sector is experiencing a shift towards vocational training due to declining numbers in traditional higher education applications, emphasizing employment-oriented education [39][44] - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, is showing strong growth in both online and offline sales, with a notable increase in revenue and profit margins [45][50] Summary by Sections 1. Travel and Tourism - Cambodia has implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese citizens, expected to increase tourist numbers significantly, with a 45% year-on-year increase in Chinese tourists from January to October 2025 [5][15] - In November 2025, Hainan's duty-free shopping reached 2.38 billion yuan, a 27.1% increase year-on-year, despite a slight decrease in shopping visitors [23][24] 2. Breakfast Market - The breakfast market in China is valued at approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, with the external breakfast market estimated between 700 to 800 billion yuan [6][33] - Mixue has launched breakfast offerings in several cities, targeting consumers with affordable pricing [37][38] 3. Education Sector - The number of students taking the national college entrance examination has decreased for the first time in eight years, with a significant drop in graduate school applications [39][40] - Vocational education is gaining traction as students seek better employment outcomes, with a reported 95%+ employment rate in vocational programs [44] 4. Skincare Industry - Lin Qingxuan reported a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 98.3% year-on-year increase, with online sales growing significantly [45][47] - The brand's product mix includes a high proportion of premium skincare items, contributing to improved profit margins [50][55] 5. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw the consumer services and media sectors underperforming, while the retail sector outperformed the market [59][65] - Notable stock performances included significant gains in retail and education sectors, with specific companies like Liufu Group and Gaoxin Retail leading the gains [65][66]

Group 1: Industry Changes - Aoki Technology Holdings is acquiring 65.83% of Norway's Vitalis for approximately 212 million RMB (30 million NOK), with the deal expected to close in 2026. Post-acquisition, Aoki will gain exclusive distribution rights for Vitalis's high-end dietary supplement brand Noromega in China, which has been a top seller on Tmall International for five consecutive years. Vitalis has committed to a net profit of no less than 22 million RMB in 2025, with a target of at least 35% year-on-year growth in 2027 and 2028 [1] - Jinbo Bio has received a registration certificate for its recombinant collagen injection in the Philippines, marking another international expansion after obtaining a similar certificate in Vietnam. The product is aimed at facial dermal filling for dynamic wrinkles and is classified as a high-risk D class medical device. This expansion aligns with the company's growth strategy and its aim to enter the "collagen+" era [2] - Longfeng Group has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially becoming the first "Hong Kong stock cosmetics store." The group operates 29 stores in Hong Kong and has over 600 suppliers, with revenue projected to grow from 1.094 billion HKD to 2.461 billion HKD from FY2023 to FY2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 50% [3] Group 2: Market Insights - The overall consumer sector is currently in a valuation trough, with opportunities for recovery as the market adjusts. Key areas of focus include personal care and health sectors, particularly in health supplements and women's care, with companies like Aoki Technology and Weiyu Chen being highlighted [4] - The Double 11 shopping festival is expected to see intensified competition, with a focus on strong alpha beauty brands such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Shares [4] - There is a potential turning point for upstream performance, with some upstream companies showing signs of recovery due to improved downstream demand and capacity adjustments. Companies like Qingsong Shares and Jiega Shares are under observation [4] - The AI+ operational model is gaining traction, with Alibaba's launch of the Qianwen AI application expected to deepen its integration into e-commerce, presenting investment opportunities in companies like Yiwang Yichuang and Aoki Technology [4] - The medical aesthetics sector is being closely monitored for new product commercialization, with companies like Ruiri Medical Technology and Jinbo Bio being of particular interest [4] Group 3: Retail Sector Updates - Chow Tai Fook reported a revenue of 38.99 billion HKD for FY26H1, a decrease of 1.1%, while operating profit increased by 0.7% to 6.82 billion HKD [5] - Luk Fook Holdings saw a revenue increase of 25.6% to 6.84 billion HKD for FY26H1, with operating profit rising by 45.4% to 780 million HKD [5] - Alibaba's FY26Q2 revenue reached 247.8 billion HKD, up 4.8%, but net profit dropped by 52.1% to 20.99 billion HKD. The strong performance of Alibaba Cloud and the launch of the C-end AI application are noteworthy [6] - Baozun E-commerce reported a revenue growth of 4.8% to 2.16 billion HKD, but its net loss expanded to 107 million HKD [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, released a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, aiming for significant improvements by 2027 [8]

Group 1: Energy Sector - Jerry Holdings announced a new gas turbine generator sales contract exceeding $100 million with a significant North American client, following a previous $100 million order for data center generators [3] - Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries forecast that global gas turbine demand will exceed 70 GW by 2025, with growth primarily in the U.S. due to its natural gas advantages [3] - The report anticipates an increase in the prosperity of the gas turbine and its upstream industries, including high-temperature alloys and blades, as they address electricity supply issues driven by AI-induced demand [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) has raised its estimate for the global semiconductor market size in 2025 by approximately $45 billion to $772 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] - WSTS further predicts that the semiconductor market will reach $975 billion in 2026, achieving over 25% year-on-year growth, approaching the $1 trillion mark [3] - The report expresses optimism regarding the sustained high prosperity of the global semiconductor industry chain, including upstream equipment and materials [3] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - Star Materials has increased the price of wet-process separators by 30%, with leading companies like Enjie, Xingyuan, and Jinli operating at full capacity [6] - The average price increase for downstream customers is between 0.1 to 0.2 yuan per square meter, with the industry’s profit in Q3 2025 being below 0.05 yuan per square meter [6] - The report suggests that the recent surge in energy storage demand has positively impacted the separator industry, indicating a potential rise in its prosperity [6] Group 4: Energy Storage - Fluence, a U.S. energy storage company, reported $1.4 billion in new orders for Q4, bringing its total backlog to $5.3 billion, with delivery timelines extending to two years [7] - The CEO highlighted that data center projects are a significant growth area, with demand driven by flexible grid connections, backup power, and power quality [7] - The report notes that the Australian market is a major contributor to Fluence's orders, accounting for nearly half of Q4's new contracts, indicating a strong demand for energy storage solutions [7] Group 5: Consumer Sector - In the beauty sector, Juzhi Biotechnology's core brand, Kefu Mei, underperformed during the Double Eleven shopping festival [9] - The company received approval for a new medical device and plans to launch at least six new products under its core brands in 2026, suggesting potential future growth [9] - In the gaming sector, client games saw a 20% year-on-year increase in Q3, driven by popular titles and a rich product pool for the upcoming year, indicating a positive outlook for cultural output and cross-platform gaming products [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [6][30]. Core Insights - The beauty care sector is seeing significant developments, including L'Oréal's minority stake investment in the Chinese skincare brand LAN and Proya's entry into the PDRN market with a new trademark [3][23]. - E-commerce company Yatsen reported a Q3 revenue of RMB 998 million, a 47.5% year-on-year increase, indicating strong growth in the beauty sector [3][23]. - The report highlights the strategic upgrades of Meili Tianyuan, focusing on brand enhancement, chain expansion, and digital transformation [3][23]. Market Performance - For the week of November 17-21, 2025, the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors experienced declines of 7.24%, 4.86%, and 4.53% respectively, ranking 28th, 15th, and 12th among 31 primary industries [15][16]. - The report notes a general downturn in consumer-focused sub-sectors, with trade, general retail, and tourism experiencing the largest declines of 9.12%, 7.49%, and 5.75% respectively [15][16]. Key Industry Events and News - L'Oréal announced a minority investment in LAN, marking its first investment in a local skincare brand in China [3][23]. - Proya launched a new product line under the "PROYA MED" brand, focusing on scientific and medical attributes [3][23]. - The report mentions significant revenue growth for companies like Yatsen and Meili Tianyuan, with Yatsen's Q3 revenue up 47.5% and Meili Tianyuan announcing strategic upgrades [3][23][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Proya, Giant Bio, Marubi, Runben, and others within the beauty care and new consumption sectors [6][30].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in the tourism sector, with Ctrip achieving a revenue of 18.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5% [17] - The report indicates a structural shift in the toy industry, with a net closure of 9 stores in October 2025, leading to a total of 3,967 stores [29] - The restaurant industry is experiencing a contraction in tea supply while coffee continues to grow, with Haidilao focusing on increasing its takeout sales [36] Summary by Sections Ctrip Performance - Ctrip's Q3 2025 revenue reached 18.37 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.5% [17] - The adjusted EBITDA for Ctrip was 6.35 billion yuan, up 11.7% year-on-year [22] - The revenue breakdown shows ticketing, accommodation, vacation, and business travel management growing by 11.6%, 18.3%, 3.1%, and 15.2% respectively [21] Toy Industry - As of October 2025, the number of offline toy stores in China was 3,967, with a net decrease of 9 stores [29] - The average store efficiency for toy brands increased by 10% year-on-year, with top brands like Pop Mart showing significant growth [31] Restaurant Industry - The tea beverage sector is entering a contraction phase, while the coffee sector is accelerating [36] - As of October 2025, the average monthly store efficiency for the tea industry was 212,400 yuan, a 5.8% increase year-on-year [39] - The coffee industry saw a net increase of 5,600 stores, with an average monthly store efficiency of 289,000 yuan, up 1.2% year-on-year [39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights the launch of the MAISEAT platform by Damai International, which connects domestic and international performance services, enhancing the ticketing experience for global users [13][15] - The camping economy in China is projected to reach a core market size of CNY 213.97 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 60.4%, indicating significant potential for outdoor activities [18][22] - The advertising industry is undergoing a transformation towards AI-driven personalized marketing, with major companies like Google and Meta adopting advanced AI advertising engines [30][32] Summary by Sections 1. Offline Entertainment - Damai International has launched a global performance service platform, MAISEAT, which offers ticketing services for various events in multiple languages and payment options [13][15] - The Asian market for online ticketing is expected to grow rapidly, benefiting from increased middle-class consumption and government support for music and sports tourism [15][17] 2. Camping and Barbecue - The camping economy is expected to grow significantly, with the core market projected to reach CNY 213.97 billion by 2024, driven by a growing interest in outdoor lifestyles [18][22] - The barbecue market is also expanding, with an expected size of CNY 316.2 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2029 [25][20] 3. AI and Advertising - The advertising industry is shifting towards AI-driven models, enhancing targeting and efficiency, with Google and Meta leading the way in adopting AI technologies [30][32] - The adoption rates for AI advertising products have surged, with Google's AI engine seeing a rise from 2% in Q4 2021 to 59% in Q4 2024 [30][32] 4. E-commerce and Beauty Care - The Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025 saw a robust performance across e-commerce platforms, with total sales reaching CNY 16,191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [39][43] - Beauty care categories performed steadily, with Tmall maintaining a strong market position, particularly in high-end brands [49][51]