Economic Overview - Zhejiang Province's GDP reached 45,004 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% at constant prices [1] - The primary industry added value was 1,131 billion yuan, growing by 3.5%; the secondary industry added value was 16,952 billion yuan, growing by 5.6%; and the tertiary industry added value was 26,921 billion yuan, growing by 6.0% [1] Industrial Performance - Industrial production in Zhejiang showed steady growth, with the added value of above-scale industries increasing by 7.6% year-on-year [1] - Private enterprises contributed significantly, with their added value growing by 8.0%, accounting for 77.9% of the growth in above-scale industrial added value [1] - Key manufacturing sectors such as computer communication electronics, automotive, and chemical raw materials saw added value growth of 18.0%, 17.6%, and 8.7% respectively [1] - High-tech manufacturing, core digital economy industries, and equipment manufacturing also experienced substantial growth, with added values increasing by 12.7%, 12.0%, and 11.1% respectively [1] Innovation and R&D - Zhejiang Province is focusing on cultivating new productive forces, with R&D expenditures for above-scale enterprises in both industrial and service sectors increasing by 7.0% from January to May, outpacing revenue growth by 2.1 percentage points [2] - The output value of new industrial products grew by 7.2% year-on-year, with a new product output rate of 42.0% [2] - Core industries in artificial intelligence showed significant revenue growth, with services such as computing power, data services, algorithm models, and smart terminals maintaining double-digit growth [2] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's added value grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with notable increases in information transmission, software, and IT services (9.3%), transportation and warehousing (7.2%), and financial services (8.4%) [3] - From January to May, the revenue of above-scale service enterprises (excluding retail, accommodation, financial, and real estate sectors) increased by 9.0%, with digital economy core service industries growing by 12.4% [3] Consumer Trends - Social retail sales totaled 18,979 billion yuan in the first half of 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [3] - Online sales showed strong support, with retail through public networks growing by 27.4%, significantly outpacing the overall retail sales growth by 22.1 percentage points [3] - New consumption models are emerging, with quality consumption accelerating; retail sales of sports and entertainment goods increased by 57.6%, and jewelry sales grew by 22.2% [3]

Economic Overview - Zhejiang's GDP for the first half of the year reached 45,004 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, surpassing the national average [1] - The growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 3.5%, 5.6%, and 6.0% respectively [1] - Industrial added value increased by 7.6%, while the service sector grew by 6.0% and agriculture by 3.6% [1] Export Performance - Zhejiang contributed 19.8% to the national export growth, the highest in the country [3] - Total import and export volume reached 2.73 trillion yuan, a 6.6% increase year-on-year, with exports at 2.07 trillion yuan, growing by 9.1% [3] - The export of mechanical and electrical products was 970.54 billion yuan, up 10.7%, accounting for 46.8% of total exports [4] Consumption Trends - Social retail sales in Zhejiang totaled 18,979 billion yuan, with a growth of 5.3%, accelerating by 0.8 percentage points from the first quarter [6] - E-commerce played a significant role, with online retail sales increasing by 27.4%, outpacing overall retail growth by 22.1 percentage points [7] - New retail formats, such as instant retail and flash sales, have emerged as key growth drivers [7] Industrial Development - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 7.6%, with private enterprises contributing 77.9% to this growth [9] - Key manufacturing sectors, including computer communication electronics and automotive, saw growth rates of 18.0% and 17.6% respectively [9] - High-tech manufacturing and digital economy sectors also demonstrated robust growth, with increases of 12.7% and 12.0% respectively [10] Price Trends and Income Distribution - Consumer prices in Zhejiang saw a slight decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [11] - The per capita disposable income for urban residents was 43,293 yuan, growing by 4.7%, while rural residents saw a 5.7% increase to 25,986 yuan [11] - The income gap between urban and rural residents has narrowed, indicating improved income distribution [11]

Core Viewpoint - The June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of -0.1%, while the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of -3.3%. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI remains at -1.38%, consistent with May and at a low since February 2024 [1][5]. Summary by Sections CPI and PPI Analysis - The CPI data met expectations, with high-frequency data estimating a 0.14% year-on-year increase, while the PPI was significantly lower than the expected -3.0% [1][5]. - The PPI showed a base effect advantage with a 0.2% month-on-month recovery, but year-on-year figures continued to decline, indicating potential discrepancies in high-frequency data representation [1][7]. Price Movements in Industries - In June, the PPI for coal processing fell by 5.5% month-on-month, and the prices in coal mining and black metal industries also decreased, reflecting weaker performance compared to high-frequency data [1][7]. - The durable consumer goods segment of PPI fell from 0.1% to -0.1%, with notable declines in the computer and textile sectors, possibly influenced by tariff uncertainties and the "618" e-commerce promotions [2][8]. Positive Trends in PPI - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a month-on-month PPI increase of 0.2%, indicating initial positive effects of the "anti-involution" trend in production [3][9]. - The prices for complete vehicles and new energy vehicles rose by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, suggesting a narrowing of year-on-year declines in these categories [10]. Notable CPI Details - Key details in CPI include a 0.3% month-on-month decrease in alcohol prices, a shift in clothing prices from increase to decrease during the "618" sales, and a 0.4% decline in transportation tools, indicating ongoing price reductions in the automotive retail sector [4][10]. - Medical service prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with a year-to-date increase of 0.7%, while pork prices fell by 1.2% month-on-month, although a rebound was noted post-June 26 [4][10]. Overall Price Stability and Future Outlook - The current task of stabilizing prices remains significant, with no signs of a turning point in the simulated deflation index. Various factors, including supply-demand fundamentals and external demand fluctuations, are influencing prices [4][13]. - Positive signs include a moderate rise in core CPI year-on-year, improvements in coal and meat prices since July, and initial positive signals in automotive manufacturing prices [4][13]. Key future indicators will be the recovery of local project starts and the continued effectiveness of the "anti-involution" trend [4][13].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for June increased slightly by 0.2 points to 49.7, with six sectors in expansion compared to four in May, indicating a modest recovery in the manufacturing sector [1][5][6]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The sectors leading in absolute prosperity include petroleum, chemical fiber, electrical machinery, specialized equipment, and agricultural products, benefiting from commodity price influences and large-scale equipment updates [1][7]. - The automotive sector saw a 7.8-point increase in export orders, with a 13.4% year-on-year growth in retail sales during the "618" promotion, and the launch of the 2025 new energy vehicle initiative [2][10]. - The pharmaceutical sector's PMI rose by 7.2 points, ending a two-month decline, influenced by policies supporting innovative drug development [2][10]. - Specialized equipment and non-metallic minerals also showed improvements, with increases of 3.3 and 3.7 points respectively, correlating with the rise in construction PMI [2][10]. - High-energy industries' PMI rose by 0.8 points, reflecting a divergence from overall manufacturing PMI trends [2][12]. Emerging Industries Summary - New materials and next-generation information technology are the only two sectors in the expansion zone for June, with new materials leading for two consecutive months and next-generation information technology for four months [3][13]. - The automotive manufacturing sector improved, but the new energy vehicle segment saw a significant decline in production by 15.9 percentage points, likely due to production cuts and supply-demand adjustments [3][15]. Construction Industry Summary - The construction PMI increased by 1.8 points in June, with residential and construction activity indices rising by 6.1 and 3.4 points respectively, attributed to improved funding for projects and minimal weather impact on indoor construction [3][15][16]. - However, the real estate sector's activity index and new orders declined by 0.7 and 2.9 points, indicating ongoing challenges in the front-end sales segment [3][19]. Service Industry Summary - The information technology and financial services sectors showed the highest prosperity, while offline travel-related industries experienced significant declines, with transportation and hospitality sectors dropping over 5 points [4][19][20]. - The service sector PMI decreased slightly by 0.1 points to 50.1, with various service sectors showing mixed performance [4][20]. Overall Insights - The overall PMI remains low, highlighting the need to focus on mid-level indicators, such as the benefits seen in emerging sectors, the automotive export order increase, and the recovery in pharmaceutical manufacturing [4][21].

Economic Overview - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces have reported stable economic performance in recent months [1] - Fixed asset investment in Zhejiang increased by 1.9% year-on-year from January to May, with project investment growing by 12.1% [3] - Infrastructure investment in Zhejiang rose by 14.2%, accounting for 26.4% of total investment, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Anhui's fixed asset investment grew by 0.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 12.4% [3] - Jiangsu's fixed asset investment decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but infrastructure investment grew by 8.7% [3] Trade Performance - Zhejiang ranked first in the country for export contributions, with total goods import and export reaching 2.24 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase [4] - Anhui's total import and export value was 374.79 billion yuan, growing by 15.4% [4] - Jiangsu's total goods trade value was 2.33 trillion yuan, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [4] Consumer Spending - All three provinces maintained a retail sales growth rate of over 5% in the first five months [5] - Jiangsu's retail sales totaled 1.98839 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [5] - Zhejiang's retail sales reached 1.55 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [5] - Anhui's retail sales increased by 5.5% [5] Industrial Growth - Jiangsu's industrial added value grew by 7.7% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing accounting for 54.6% of the total [7] - High-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing in Jiangsu saw increases of 9.8% and 9.7%, respectively [7] - Zhejiang's industrial added value grew by 7.6%, with significant contributions from petroleum processing and automotive sectors [8] - Anhui's industrial added value increased by 8.4%, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 29.3% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the inflation trends in May, highlighting a slight decrease in CPI and a more significant drop in PPI, with implications for future economic conditions and policy responses [1][10]. Group 1: CPI Inflation - May CPI inflation was reported at -0.1% year-on-year, matching the previous value and exceeding market expectations of -0.2% [1][2]. - Energy prices have significantly dragged down CPI inflation, while core CPI showed slight upward support [2][6]. - Food prices experienced a mild decline, with a 0.2% drop month-on-month, which is less than the average decline of 1.4% over the past five years [5]. - Core CPI inflation rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6% year-on-year, although month-on-month momentum has weakened [6][7]. - Service prices remained resilient, with travel prices increasing by 0.8% month-on-month, surpassing the five-year average of 0.2% [6]. Group 2: PPI Inflation - May PPI inflation was reported at -3.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and -0.4% month-on-month, which is weaker than the historical average since 2017 [10][12]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to weak oil prices affecting the entire industrial chain and a slowdown in the construction sector due to adverse weather conditions [10][12]. - Despite the overall decline, there are signs of recovery in prices related to exports and new growth sectors, with textile prices narrowing their decline and some electronic prices turning positive [12][15]. Group 3: Forward Outlook - Looking ahead, energy prices are expected to remain weak, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $60 and $70 [9]. - The overall pace of CPI recovery is anticipated to be slow, influenced by policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [16]. - For the second quarter, CPI inflation is expected to stabilize around 0%, while PPI inflation may drop to approximately -3.0% [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak performance of CPI and PPI in May 2025, highlighting a deflationary trend and the factors contributing to this situation, including energy and food prices, as well as the broader economic implications for GDP growth and investment opportunities [1][4][11]. CPI Analysis - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, lower than the previous -2.7% [1][4]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI weights of 60% and 40%, was -1.38%, the lowest in the past 16 months [1][4]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to a 1.7% month-on-month decrease in energy prices, which negatively impacted CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points, primarily due to the transmission of commodity price declines influenced by tariffs [6][7]. - Food prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point drag on CPI, with weak demand in the restaurant sector being a significant factor [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decline was exacerbated by two main factors: a decrease in global pricing raw materials and weak domestic construction product pricing [8][9]. - The oil extraction, processing, and chemical industries experienced expanded declines due to falling oil prices, with year-on-year price drops of -17.3% for oil extraction and -14.7% for oil processing [8][9]. - New industry products made a slight positive contribution to PPI, with some sectors like automotive and electronics showing a slight narrowing in their year-on-year decline [8][9]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, there is a potential for a slight narrowing of PPI declines in June due to recent rebounds in oil and copper prices, indicating a possible improvement in global pricing factors [10]. - However, to significantly alter the low PPI situation, prices in the construction and emerging industries need to exit the negative growth range, which requires effective local government investment strategies [10]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment since the "924" policy has shown signs of stabilization, with actual GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second quarter of 2025, despite pressures from exports to the U.S. [11]. - The current economic challenges are primarily related to low prices and nominal GDP, leading to high real interest rates and a heavier debt burden, which could affect investment and consumption opportunities [11].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector showed mild recovery in May, with the manufacturing PMI rising by 0.5 points to 49.5, slightly above the seasonal average. However, this increase is not strong considering the low base from April due to tariff impacts. The absolute value of 49.5 is only better than May 2019 and May 2023 in the past decade [1][7][8]. Manufacturing Sector Analysis - In May, the manufacturing sectors that improved can be categorized into three types: emerging manufacturing (computer communication electronics, electrical machinery), essential consumer agricultural products, and the petrochemical industry chain (petrochemical refining, chemicals, synthetic fibers, and plastics) [2][9]. - The macroeconomic clues behind these improvements include: the cancellation of high tariffs leading to better export orders, the continued effects of domestic "two new" policies, and demand growth from the AI industry. The sectors experiencing significant downturns are mainly in the construction chain and optional consumer goods [2][9]. - The electrical machinery sector is leading in terms of prosperity, with a PMI above 55, benefiting from rapid growth in new energy and new energy vehicles, as well as policy dividends from "two new" initiatives [3][11]. Emerging Industries - Emerging industries such as new generation information technology, new materials, high-end equipment, and energy-saving and environmental protection sectors showed improved prosperity in May. This is attributed to the rebound in external demand and domestic policy support [3][12]. - The biological industry remains the weakest, with a significant decline in export orders continuing from April [3][12]. Construction Sector Insights - The construction industry in May is characterized by "infrastructure improvement and real estate drag." Civil engineering construction saw a continuous improvement for two months, while the real estate chain showed weakness across all stages [4][15]. - The construction activity index decreased by 0.9 points to 51.0 in May, indicating a slowdown in the real estate sector [14][16]. Service Sector Performance - The service sector saw a slight improvement, with the PMI rising by 0.1 points to 50.2. Key drivers include travel-related sectors benefiting from the May Day holiday and a rebound in the water transport industry [6][17]. - The information technology service sector continues to perform well, driven by trends such as "AI+" and online consumption [6][17]. Summary of Key Insights - The "two new" policies are concentrated in sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as electrical machinery and computer electronics, which currently show high prosperity [5][6]. - The new generation information technology sector leads in emerging industries, while the service sector's IT services maintain a leading position [5][6]. - External uncertainties continue to impact sectors like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology, as indicated by their performance data [5][6]. - The construction sector is experiencing a rise in prosperity due to accelerated issuance of special bonds and project implementations, although upstream material sectors remain under pressure due to real estate slowdowns [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for the upward limit of equity assets to be opened further through three emerging clues: government investment acceleration, supply-demand relationship management, and improvements in US-China trade relations. Group 1: Government Investment - Government investment is expected to accelerate following the issuance of special bonds and project implementation, with significant activity anticipated in May. The issuance of special bonds began on April 24, and the acceleration of project implementation is expected to lead to increased construction activity, particularly in urban renewal projects [2][4]. - The economic data from April indicates that while equipment and appliance sales are strong, the real estate and narrow infrastructure sectors are lagging, with fixed asset investment showing a year-on-year increase of only 3.6% [2]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Relationship - New signals from policies indicate a shift towards managing low prices and addressing "involution" competition. The central bank's report emphasizes a transition from managing high prices to low prices, aiming for high-quality development and preventing disorderly competition [3]. - The past two years have seen nominal growth rates lag behind actual growth, leading to higher real interest rates, which in turn dampen investment and consumption. Improving the supply-demand balance is seen as a pathway to raise the price level and stimulate economic activity [3]. Group 3: US-China Trade Relations - Recent communications between US and Chinese officials following the Geneva talks are viewed as a positive signal for improving macroeconomic uncertainty. Enhanced relations could lead to simultaneous improvements in the economic fundamentals and risk appetite [4]. Group 4: Market Performance - The week of May 22 saw significant upward pressure on risk-free rates in the US, leading to a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow Jones all recorded declines of approximately 2.5% [5]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index outperformed global markets, rising by 1.1%, while A-shares showed mixed performance with a slight decline in technology stocks [5][6]. Group 5: Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market displayed divergence, with gold leading gains amid geopolitical risks and tightening liquidity. Gold prices rose by 5.0% for London gold and 5.6% for COMEX futures, while copper also saw a slight increase [6][7]. - Oil prices adjusted downwards, with Brent crude futures falling by 1.0% during the same period [6]. Group 6: Economic Indicators - Industrial production in May is expected to show resilience, with a year-on-year growth estimate of 5.99%, supported by export demand. The actual and nominal GDP growth rates for May are projected at 5.24% and 4.10%, respectively [14]. - Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) estimates indicate slight declines, with PPI expected to be -2.98% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector [15][16]. Group 7: Policy Developments - The State Council approved the "Manufacturing Green Low-Carbon Development Action Plan (2025-2027)," emphasizing the need for green technology innovation and the transformation of traditional industries [24]. - The government is focusing on addressing "involution" competition to promote healthy industrial development and enhance market competition [25].

Group 1: Trade Relations and Impact - The China-U.S. trade relationship has shown signs of easing, but the future direction remains uncertain[3] - Industries with low revenue profit margins and high export exposure, such as textiles and furniture, will be significantly impacted by a 30% tariff[6] - High-margin industries with low export exposure, like pharmaceuticals and beverages, will experience limited impact from tariffs[6] Group 2: Identifying Strong Alpha Products - Strong alpha products can be identified through three perspectives: import/export dependency, resilience during previous trade tensions, and high re-export rates[3] - Traditional labor-intensive products, such as textiles and toys, maintain a global supply advantage[3] - Mid-range manufacturing products, like home appliances and electrical machinery, can mitigate trade friction effects through re-export strategies[3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Resilience - During the 2018-2019 trade tensions, certain products, including ships and integrated circuits, showed resilience and even market share growth[9] - Re-export trade through countries like Vietnam and Mexico has played a crucial role in buffering the impact of tariffs[10] - Products with high U.S. import dependency and strong global supply advantages are less affected by U.S. tariff policies[8] Group 4: Risk Factors - Historical data extrapolation may lead to inaccuracies in predicting future impacts[11] - Unexpected changes in U.S. tariff policies could significantly alter market dynamics[11] - Increased scrutiny on origin verification may affect China's re-export capabilities[11]