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广发早知道:汇总版-20250814
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 01:52
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities. It assesses market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on macroeconomic data, industry news, and inventory changes in each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: On Wednesday, A - shares rose strongly. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.76%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. The semiconductor产业链 was hot, while high - dividend sectors such as banks and coal had a slight correction. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and their basis further repaired [2][3]. - News: China counter - sanctioned two EU banks. The US July CPI was in line with expectations, and the market expected a Fed rate cut in September [3][4]. - Capital: A - share trading volume increased significantly, with a turnover of over 2.15 trillion. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Operation suggestion: The basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are - 0.14%, 0.21%, - 0.87%, and - 0.89% respectively. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price near 6400 on rallies, with a moderately bullish outlook [4]. Treasury Futures - Market performance: Treasury futures closed up across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.02%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined [5]. - Capital: The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan. The inter - bank market funds were in a comfortable state, and the liquidity might converge slightly in the short term [5][6]. - Fundamentals: China's M2, M1, and M0 balances increased year - on - year in July. The increase in social financing scale was 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, but entity credit decreased [6]. - Operation suggestion: The credit in July was weaker year - on - year, and the bond market sentiment stabilized. The 10 - year Treasury bond may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, focusing on the tax - period funds and new bond issuance pricing [6]. Precious Metals - News: The US Treasury Secretary said that the US might increase sanctions on Russia. Some Fed officials had different views on interest rate cuts, and the market continued to digest the expectation of a September rate cut [7]. - Market: International gold prices rose slightly, closing at $3355.88 per ounce, up 0.23%. International silver prices rose 1.57% to $38.502 per ounce, hitting a three - week high [8]. - Outlook: The market sentiment was affected by trade agreements, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation increased. Technically, gold faced resistance at $3450. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options on price pullbacks. Silver may fluctuate in a range, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed with put options [8][10]. Shipping - Container Shipping Futures - Spot price: As of August 14, the spot prices of major shipping companies were provided [11]. - Index: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index declined. The SCFI composite index also fell [11]. - Fundamentals: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone and US manufacturing PMIs were provided [11]. - Logic: The futures price declined, and the main contract broke through the 1400 - point support. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, the price of the October contract may be lower than last year [12]. - Operation suggestion: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and short positions in the 10 - contract can be held [12]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased. The willingness of holders to sell at low prices was low [13]. - Macro: Trump signed the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days. The US July CPI data increased the probability of a September rate cut [13][14]. - Supply: The copper concentrate TC increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [14][15]. - Demand: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rods decreased, while that of recycled copper rods increased. The domestic demand was resilient, and the power and new - energy sectors supported the demand [15]. - Inventory: COMEX and LME copper inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [16]. - Logic: The market expected a Fed rate cut in September, and the short - term tariff risk was released. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, and the price was expected to fluctuate in a range [17]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [17]. Alumina - Spot: On August 13, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [17]. - Supply: The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [18]. - Inventory: The alumina port inventory and warehouse receipts increased [18]. - Logic: The supply - side concerns had limited impact, and the market was slightly oversupplied. The price may fluctuate between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [19]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract may run between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term [19]. Aluminum - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased [19]. - Supply: The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio decreased [20][21]. - Demand: The downstream was in the off - season, and the operating rates of aluminum profiles, aluminum foil, etc. were generally low [21]. - Inventory: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories increased [21]. - Logic: The market increased the bet on a Fed rate cut in September, and the aluminum price rose slightly. The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price may be under pressure in the short term, running between 20000 - 21000 [22]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 20000 - 21000, paying attention to the resistance at 21000 [22]. Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased [22]. - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in June increased, but it is expected to decline in July due to the off - season and cost factors [23]. - Demand: The demand in July was under pressure, and the trading activity decreased. The inventory increased [23]. - Logic: The price followed the aluminum price and fluctuated strongly. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 19200 - 20200 [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 19400 - 20400 [24]. Zinc - Spot: On August 13, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots increased, and the downstream was reluctant to buy at high prices [24]. - Supply: The zinc ore TC remained stable. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - Demand: The spot premium of zinc decreased. The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement was weak [27]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased [28]. - Logic: The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The zinc price may fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [28]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - Spot: On August 13, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream was reluctant to replenish inventory [29]. - Supply: The domestic tin ore imports in June were at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be postponed to the fourth quarter [31]. - Demand: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry declined, and the demand was expected to be weak [30][31]. - Inventory: The LME inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased slightly [30]. - Logic: The rate - cut expectation drove the tin price up. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the Myanmar tin ore imports [31][32]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see [32]. Nickel - Spot: As of August 13, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased [32]. - Supply: The refined nickel production in July was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly [32]. - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and high - priced nickel sulfate was weak [32]. - Inventory: The overseas inventory remained high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [33]. - Logic: The market sentiment was stable, and the price may fluctuate between 120000 - 126000. The medium - term supply was loose, restricting the upside [34]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 120000 - 126000 [34][35]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged [35]. - Raw materials: The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel - iron price was strong, and the chrome - iron price was weak [35][37]. - Supply: The estimated stainless - steel production in August increased month - on - month [36]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased slightly [36]. - Logic: The price decreased slightly, the cost was supportive, but the demand was weak. The price may fluctuate between 13000 - 13500 [37]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to run between 13000 - 13500 [37]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide increased. The upstream was bullish [37]. - Supply: The lithium carbonate production in July increased, and the production in August is expected to increase [38]. - Demand: The demand was optimistic, and the cell orders were okay [38]. - Inventory: The overall inventory increased, the upstream inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory increased [39]. - Logic: The futures price fluctuated widely. The fundamentals were in a tight balance, and the price may fluctuate around 85,000. It is recommended to wait and see and go long on dips [40]. - Operation suggestion: Wait and see cautiously and go long lightly on dips [41]. Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The steel futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreased [42]. - Cost and profit: The cost increased, but the steel price also rose, and the steel mill profit increased. The profit order was billet > hot - rolled coil > rebar > cold - rolled coil [42]. - Supply: The iron - element production from January to July increased year - on - year. The current iron - water production was stable, and the scrap - steel consumption increased. The rebar production increased, while the hot - rolled coil production decreased [42]. - Demand: The apparent demand for the five major steel products from January to July was basically flat year - on - year. The current apparent demand decreased [43]. - Inventory: The inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, mainly due to the increase in trader inventory [43]. - Viewpoint: The steel price was supported by the small increase in steel mill inventory. The 10 - contract price may fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, paying attention to the support levels of 3400 for hot - rolled coil and 3200 for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - Spot: As of August 13, the prices of mainstream iron - ore powders decreased slightly [45]. - Futures: The near - month 2509 contract increased, and the main 2601 contract remained unchanged [45]. - Basis: The basis of different iron - ore varieties was provided [45]. - Demand: The daily average iron - water production decreased slightly, the blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased [45]. - Supply: The global iron - ore shipment and port arrival decreased this week [46]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average port clearance increased, and the steel mill inventory increased [46]. - Viewpoint: The 09 contract fluctuated. The iron - ore price may follow the steel price. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [46]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The coking - coal futures price decreased, and the spot price of some coal varieties was loose, while the Mongolian coal price was stable [47][49]. - Supply: The coal - mine operating rate decreased, and the production and inventory decreased [47][48]. - Demand: The coking and blast - furnace operating rates were stable, and the iron - water production decreased slightly [48]. - Inventory: The overall coking - coal inventory was at a medium level, with the coal - mine inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [48]. - Viewpoint: The coking - coal market was stable. There was an expectation of coal - mine production restriction in August. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [49][50]. Coke - Futures and spot: The coke futures price decreased, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented. The port price followed the increase [51][52]. - Supply: The coke production was stable, and the coal - mine复产 was less than expected [51][52]. - Demand: The iron - water production decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was supportive [52]. - Inventory: The coking - plant inventory decreased, the port inventory increased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory decreased [52]. - Viewpoint: The coke market was in short supply, but the previous bullish expectations were over - exhausted. It is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait and see [52]. Agricultural Products Meal - Spot: On August 13, the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices increased. The soybean meal trading volume decreased, and the rapeseed meal trading volume was zero [53][54]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's August supply - demand report showed a decrease in US soybean planting area and ending stocks. The Brazilian soybean and soybean meal exports in August were expected to increase, while the EU soybean imports from July to August 10 decreased [54][55]. - Outlook: The Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% margin on Canadian rapeseed imports. The US soybean price rose, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased. It is recommended to hold the previous 01 long positions [55]. Live Pigs - Spot: The live - pig spot price was stable, and the downstream procurement was smooth. The breeding end was reluctant to sell at low prices [56]. - Data: The profit of self - breeding and self - raising sows decreased, and the inventory of breeding sows increased slightly [56]. - Outlook: The current supply and demand were weak. The long - term 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly, but also pay attention to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - Spot: On August 13, the corn prices in Northeast China decreased slightly, and the prices in North China were stable. The port prices were stable or increased slightly [58]. - Fundamentals: The corn inventory in the four northern ports decreased, and the inventory in the Guangdong port also decreased [59]. - Outlook: The corn futures price rebounded due to market sentiment, but the overall sentiment was weak. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. In the long term, pay attention to the new - season corn growth [59].
毕马威中国经济研究院院长蔡伟:消费市场的积极变化将利好消费板块的估值修复
Zheng Quan Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-13 11:05
Group 1 - The positive changes in the consumption market will benefit the valuation recovery of the consumption sector, enhancing performance growth expectations for companies supported by policy and market demand [1] - The investment attractiveness of the consumption sector is expected to increase further, boosting investor confidence and attracting more capital inflow [1] Group 2 - In July, the PPI decline in industries such as coal, steel, cement, photovoltaic, and lithium batteries has narrowed, while CPI for fuel and new energy vehicles has stabilized after several months of decline [2] - To consolidate the foundation for moderate price recovery, it is necessary to strengthen policy coordination on both supply and demand sides, promoting industrial upgrades and demand creation [2] - On the supply side, improving standards for technology, energy consumption, and emissions is essential to phase out outdated capacity and replace it with high-quality capacity [2] Group 3 - The new consumption sector is expected to further contribute to domestic demand, particularly through the acceleration of service consumption potential, innovation in consumption scenarios and channels, and the emergence of the emotional economy [3] - The "self-care economy" trend is driving growth in new sectors such as light luxury, trendy toys, pet care, and fitness, becoming new engines for industrial upgrades and economic growth [3] Group 4 - The implementation of policies like "old for new" has led to positive changes in the consumption market, with suggestions to expand subsidy coverage to essential goods and services [4] - The focus should also be on balancing the pace of subsidy distribution to ensure policy continuity and optimize financial support and tax incentives [4] - The emotional economy-related sectors in the A-share market have shown active performance, indicating high market recognition of their growth potential [4] Group 5 - The younger consumer group increasingly values "emotional value" and "cultural identity," making "emotional price ratio" a significant factor in their purchasing decisions [5] - The rise of national brands and cultural exports is driving high growth in sectors like trendy toys and IP derivatives, with companies that possess brand advantages and innovation capabilities standing out [5]
周度经济观察:名义增速筑底,股债切换启动-20250812
Guotou Securities· 2025-08-12 09:37
Export and Trade Data - July exports in USD increased by 7.2% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from June, alleviating concerns about a significant decline in exports for the second half of the year[4] - Imports rose by 4.1% year-on-year in July, a substantial increase of 3 percentage points from the previous month, with imports from the US dropping to -18.9%, the lowest level this year[6] PPI and CPI Trends - July PPI month-on-month was -0.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, while year-on-year PPI remained stable at -3.6%[8] - July CPI year-on-year was 0%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with core CPI at 0.8%, up 0.1 percentage points[11] Market Dynamics - Recent shifts indicate a transition from safe assets to risk assets among residents and financial institutions, driven by low bond yields and a rising equity market since the beginning of the year[16] - The current equity market is experiencing a bullish atmosphere, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, reflecting an increase in market risk appetite[16] Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is changing, suggesting that the most significant downward pressure on the economy may be behind, which is a fundamental driver for the stock-bond switch[18] - The expectation of a stable economic recovery, supported by proactive credit expansion, is likely to push the equity market to higher levels[18] US Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for US interest rate cuts have risen, with projections indicating approximately three rate cuts in 2025, totaling around 57 basis points[26]
东海期货研究所晨会观点精萃-20250811
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 03:32
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Precious Metals**: The US economic data continues to be weak, and precious metals are oscillating upward. The current focus has shifted from tariffs to economic data, and precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, with the medium - to long - term allocation logic remaining unchanged [2][3]. - **Black Metals**: The inventory increase of steel has expanded, and the futures and spot prices of steel and iron ore have continued to be weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [4][5][6]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Glass production is expected to decrease, with short - term price expected to oscillate within a range [9]. - **Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The prices of copper, aluminum, and other metals are affected by various factors such as macro policies, inventory, and demand, with expected short - term oscillations [10]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The spot market is weak, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil, asphalt, PX, PTA, and other products is complex, with most products expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [14]. - **Agricultural Products**: Attention should be paid to the guidance of the August USDA and MPOB supply - demand reports. The prices of various agricultural products such as soybeans, oils, and grains are affected by factors like weather, supply - demand, and policies [18]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Last week, precious metals oscillated upward. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 786.90 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 7279 yuan/kilogram [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: The news of the US imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss gold triggered a sharp rise in the COMEX premium. The US economic data continued to weaken, with the July ISM non - manufacturing index at 50.1. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September with a probability of nearly 90% [3]. - **Outlook**: Precious metals are supported by easing expectations in the short - term, and the medium - to long - term allocation logic remains unchanged. Next week, focus on the July US CPI data [3]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Situation**: The futures and spot markets of domestic steel continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volumes. The inflation data in July improved, and market sentiment recovered to some extent [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Real demand continued to weaken, with the inventory of five major steel products increasing by 230,000 tons week - on - week, and the apparent consumption continuing to decline. Steel supply was at a high level, with the output of five major steel products increasing by 17,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of rebar increasing by 100,000 tons [5]. - **Cost and Outlook**: The price of coking coal strengthened, and the cost support for steel remained strong. Steel prices are recommended to be treated with an interval oscillation mindset in the short - term [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore continued to be weak last Friday. The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and real demand was weak, with the hot metal output expected to further decrease [6]. - **Influencing Factors**: There were increasing rumors of production restrictions in the northern region [6]. Glass - **Supply**: The daily melting volume of glass remained stable week - on - week. There are expectations of production cuts due to macro anti - involution policies [9]. - **Demand**: The terminal real estate industry remained weak, but demand improved slightly, with the downstream deep - processing orders at 9.55 days at the end of July, increasing month - on - month [9]. - **Profit**: The profits of float glass using natural gas, coal, and petroleum coke as fuels decreased week - on - week. The glass price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous and New Energy Metals Copper - **Macro Factors**: Tariffs have basically been implemented, and the US - China 90 - day tariff truce agreement may be extended. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have increased significantly. The Comex copper inventory is at a multi - year high, and the terminal demand may weaken marginally [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of aluminum fell last Friday, affected by the decline in alumina. Alumina production remained high, with increased in - plant inventory and a large accumulation of warehouse receipts [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals of aluminum have weakened recently, with domestic social inventory increasing by 100,000 tons and LME inventory increasing by 130,000 tons compared to the low in late June [10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and Cost**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants has increased, leading to losses and production cuts [10]. - **Demand**: It is in the off - season, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [10][11]. Tin - **Supply**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 0.41% to 59.64%. The mining end is expected to be more relaxed [11]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is weak, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new photovoltaic installations in June. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with limited upside [11]. Carbonate Lithium - **Supply**: The Fengxiawo Mine has stopped production, which is a short - term positive for supply. The production and inventory pressure are accumulating [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the hedging pressure [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: The production in the north and south regions has increased, with a weekly output of 79,478 tons, an 8.1% week - on - week increase. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [12]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: It is a key anti - involution industry, with expectations remaining. The spot price provides support, and the short - term is expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - **Market Trends**: The US - Russia peace talks are ongoing, and the market expects the Russia - Ukraine conflict to ease. The spot market is weak, and the demand for crude oil is expected to decrease while supply increases [14]. - **Outlook**: There is long - term pressure on crude oil prices [14]. Asphalt - **Cost and Market**: The cost support of asphalt is weak due to the falling crude oil prices. The spot market is average, with low - to - medium trading volumes and limited inventory reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Asphalt will continue to maintain a weak oscillating pattern [14]. PX - **Market Situation**: Short - term PTA device production has been cut, and PX devices are also operating at a limited capacity. The PXN spread is around 260 US dollars, and the PX outer market is at 831 US dollars. It will oscillate in the short - term [14]. PTA - **Market Indicators**: The PTA basis has continued to decline slightly, and downstream operating rates have increased slightly. The processing fee is low, and some major devices have cut production [15][16]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are expected to balance in August, and PTA will maintain an interval oscillation [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Inventory and Supply**: Port inventory has decreased slightly to 516,000 tons, but the expected import volume will increase, and domestic device operating rates will recover [16]. - **Outlook**: It may show a situation of slightly increased supply and demand in the short - term and maintain an oscillation [16]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of short - fiber has decreased due to the weakening of the sector. Terminal orders are average, and inventory has accumulated slightly [16]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term [16]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There are concentrated maintenance in the supply of methanol, and the demand in the inland region is boosted by the restart of olefin plants, while the port is weak due to olefin maintenance and increased imports [16]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, with obvious regional differentiation, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. PP - **Supply - Demand**: The cost - profit of PP has improved, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in mid - to late August. Demand is in the off - season, and industrial inventory has increased [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract price fluctuation may be limited, and the 01 contract is still considered weak [17]. LLDPE - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure remains, and the demand shows signs of improvement. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is short - term weak [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - **Market Indicators**: The net short position of soybean funds in the CBOT market has increased significantly. The US weather is favorable for crop growth, and new soybean sales are cold [18]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the August USDA supply - demand report. Soybean exports may be adjusted downward, and the price is expected to be under pressure [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories have continued to increase, and the spot market is weak. Soybean meal is traded around the cost logic, and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate in the short - term [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - **Soybean Oil**: The spot trading of soybean oil has improved, and there is a supply - tightening expectation in the fourth quarter. The soybean - palm oil spread is inverted, and there are opportunities for long - soybean - oil and short - palm - oil arbitrage [19]. - **Palm Oil**: The production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil have increased in July, and exports are weak. The domestic import profit is inverted, and the price is expected to be under pressure at a high level in the short - term [19]. Corn - **Supply**: Corn will be listed in Anhui and Xinjiang in late August, with sufficient supply expected. The spot price is stable in August [19]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: Pig prices rebounded over the weekend. There is reluctance to sell at low prices, and the supply pressure may ease after the Beginning of Autumn [20].
工业品波动有所下降:申万期货早间评论-20250811
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].
七月份CPI环比上涨百分之零点四——物价数据透露哪些积极信号
Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year change remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [2][4] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices, which rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall CPI increase [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in certain industries [3][4] - The year-on-year PPI decline was 3.6%, consistent with the previous month, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [4][5] - Improvements in supply-demand relationships in some industries were noted, with price declines narrowing in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [3][4] Group 3 - Economic stability and demand expansion are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices in the second half of the year [5][6] - Policies aimed at boosting domestic demand are anticipated to positively influence consumer prices [5][6] - The impact of international commodity price fluctuations on the domestic market is expected to diminish, contributing to a more stable price environment [6]
物价数据透露哪些积极信号(锐财经)
Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the year-on-year CPI remained flat [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024, with a continuous expansion in growth for three consecutive months [2][6] - The increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices in services and industrial consumer goods, with service prices up 0.6% and industrial consumer goods prices up 0.5% month-on-month [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but the decline was less than the previous month, indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries [3][5] - The domestic market's competitive order is improving, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, cement, and lithium batteries [5][6] - The overall judgment for the second half of the year suggests a mild recovery in prices, supported by stable economic conditions and effective demand expansion policies [6][10]
7月份居民消费价格指数环比上涨0.4% 同比持平
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-08-09 22:21
Group 1 - The core CPI in July 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, marking the third consecutive month of growth [3] - The overall CPI in July shifted from a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% to an increase of 0.4%, while the year-on-year figure remained stable [3] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month in July, contributing over 60% to the total CPI increase, driven by high demand during the summer travel season [3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first month of reduced decline since March [3] - The domestic market's competitive order has improved, leading to a reduction in price declines for industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaic, and lithium batteries [3]
7月份居民消费价格指数环比上涨0.4%
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-08-09 12:57
Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% in June, while year-on-year it remained flat [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking an expansion in growth for three consecutive months [1] - Service prices saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, contributing over 60% to the total CPI increase, driven by high demand during the summer travel season, particularly in airfares, tourism, and hotel accommodations [1] Group 2 - The domestic market's competitive order continues to improve, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as coal, steel, photovoltaics, and lithium batteries [2] - In July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but this decline was 0.2 percentage points smaller than the previous month, marking the first month-on-month decline reduction since March [2]
7月份CPI环比上涨0.4% “政策+消费”激发市场活力涌动
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-08-09 08:04
Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing the previous month's decline and exceeding seasonal levels by 0.1 percentage points, indicating positive changes in consumer prices [3] - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing over 60% to the total CPI increase, driven by the peak travel season with significant price hikes in airfare (17.9%), tourism (9.1%), and hotel accommodation (6.9%) [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March 2024, reflecting a stable demand environment [9] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Developments - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, marking the first narrowing of the decline since March [10][11] - The improvement in PPI was attributed to enhanced market competition and supply-demand relationships in various industries, particularly in coal, steel, and photovoltaic sectors, which saw reduced price declines [13] - Positive price changes in industrial products were noted, driven by macroeconomic policies and increased demand for upgraded consumer goods, with notable price recoveries in aircraft manufacturing and wearable technology [15]