持仓与成交： SHFE铜库存环比减少650吨至90625吨，连续两周去库。LME铜库存继续增加 505吨至25851吨。持仓方面，LME0-3铜合约持仓量环比增4590手至292214 手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 铜价高位震荡延续，供给需求角力未明 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 6月30日，沪铜主力合约收于79800元/吨，较前一日小幅下跌0.08%。LME铜 价则从9896美元/吨小幅下探至9879美元/吨，维持高位震荡格局。现货升 贴水方面，升水铜升水从135元/吨升至150元/吨，平水铜升水由85元/吨涨 至115元/吨，湿法铜升水攀升至55元/吨，现货市场流通货源紧俏，基差整 体走强。 海外矿山扰动缓和，国内冶炼端出现分化，江苏地区因出口计划导致现货 供应偏紧，而上海、广东仓单增加，冶炼厂开工率维持高位。 需求端： 精铜杆企业开工率持续下滑，6月20日-26日当周环比下降1.81个百分点至 74.01%，且7月初部分企业计划进一步减产降库。下游畏高情绪明显，华北 地区现货成交均价跌至79710元/吨，升水走高但成交清淡，终端采购意愿 受抑，仅贸易商活跃。 库 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" with expectations for overall sector returns to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [5]. Core Viewpoints - The easing of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to improved market sentiment, coupled with increasing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has positively impacted the non-ferrous metals sector [10][11]. - The anticipated reduction in overseas smelting capacity is gradually materializing, while there are still expectations for reductions in Chinese smelting capacity [3][10]. - Despite uncertainties in the macroeconomic environment and demand side, a turning point is awaited [4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Following the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market focus has shifted to liquidity and the potential impact of U.S. copper tariffs [2][10]. - The market is currently pricing in an implied tariff of approximately 13% on U.S. copper, with potential for further widening of price differentials if tariffs are implemented [10][11]. Supply and Demand - Overseas smelting reductions are expected to lead the way, with notable reductions already seen in facilities such as Glencore's PASAR smelter in the Philippines [10]. - In China, the current TC spot price is at -44.8 USD/dry ton, indicating a tight copper supply situation, further exacerbated by a reduction in guidance from the Kamoa copper mine [10][11]. Price Outlook - Copper prices are expected to rise in the lead-up to the implementation of U.S. tariffs, with the market currently reflecting a 13% tariff expectation [10]. - If monetary and fiscal policies support economic stability, a turning point for copper prices may be on the horizon, despite current uncertainties in the U.S. economy [10][11]. - Demand in China is expected to weaken marginally in the second half of the year, but this is not anticipated to significantly impact copper prices due to low inventory levels [10].

我国是电解铜冶炼大国，占全球产能的50%以上，但铜矿产出不足，需大量进口铜精矿。2025年1-4月 中国进口铜精矿累计1003.2万吨，同比增长7.4%，当前铜精矿对外依存度高达90%。因此海外矿山的扰 动对于未来供应减少的影响边际增强。 2025年上半年铜价走势一波三折，在供应减产预期持续升温的背景下，铜价重心整体偏强。后市来看， 市场料将交易减产的预期和需求韧性支撑，宏观边际修复背景下，铜价走势或延续偏强运行。 2025年上半年国内电解铜现货价格振幅较宽，整体呈现"N"字型走势，截至2025年6月23日，国内1#电 解铜现货均价为78345元／吨，较去年年末上涨4575元／吨，涨幅为6.20%。上半年均价78647.55元／ 吨，同比上涨3.43%。 分析上半年铜价波动的主要影响因素，供应扰动边际增强的影响不容忽视。铜矿是不可再生资源，随着 矿山老龄化，全球铜矿增量逐年下降，铜精矿产量增幅远不能满足增长需求。 往后看，后期铜精矿紧张趋势或有所加剧，叠加冶炼厂可能陆续进入年内计划检修环节，故下半年产量 水平可能略低于上半年。预计2025年下半年国内电解铜产量为703万吨，较上半年减少26万吨，环比降 幅3. ...

2025年06月30日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：短期高位，关注量价 | 5 | | 铅：存旺季预期，支撑价格 | 6 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 7 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 7 | | 碳酸锂：基本面承压叠加仓单矛盾，高波动或延续 | 9 | | 工业硅：减产消息扰动，关注上方空间 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 11 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 13 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 14 | | 硅铁：现货情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 锰硅：港口报价提振，宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 焦炭：震荡偏强 | 18 | | 焦煤：检查扰动持续发酵，震荡偏强 | 18 | | 动力煤：日耗修复，震荡企稳 | 20 | | 原木：主力切换，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 对二甲苯：供应收缩，月差偏强 | 23 | | PTA：月差反套 | 23 | | MEG：单边偏弱 | 23 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant amount of copper is being transported to the United States, driven by expectations of potential tariffs on copper imports, with estimates of around 500,000 tons currently en route, compared to the usual monthly import volume of 70,000 tons [3] - The price disparity between copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the London Metal Exchange (LME) has widened, with COMEX prices exceeding LME prices by over $1,400 per ton, creating lucrative arbitrage opportunities for traders [4] - The U.S. domestic copper production accounts for only 5% of global supply, while demand is increasing at a rate of 6.2%, significantly higher than the global average of 3.8%, necessitating increased imports to meet domestic needs [6] Group 2: Geopolitical and Strategic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are influencing U.S. strategies to reduce reliance on Asian countries for copper supply, aiming to integrate suppliers from the Americas into its supply chain [7] - The U.S. is attempting to secure its resource supply and reshape the global copper market by building inventory through increased imports [7] Group 3: Impact on Futures Market - The influx of copper into the U.S. has led to significant fluctuations in copper prices, with COMEX prices rising sharply while LME prices also show an upward trend, increasing market volatility [9] - The previously stable price difference between COMEX and LME has become highly variable, raising the risks associated with arbitrage trading [10] Group 4: Inventory Changes - COMEX copper inventory surged to 176,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a 120% increase from the beginning of the year, while LME inventory decreased to 114,000 tons, impacting price dynamics in the futures market [12] Group 5: Effects on Traders and Companies - Traders who anticipated tariff expectations and successfully redirected copper shipments to the U.S. stand to gain substantial profits, while those who failed to act in time may face significant risks and potential losses [13] - Copper smelting companies may experience instability in raw material supply due to the altered supply landscape, affecting production schedules and cost management [14] - Downstream processing companies, particularly in sectors like electrical wiring, are facing increased procurement costs due to rising copper prices, which they struggle to pass on to customers, leading to compressed profit margins [16]

Group 1: Investment in Nickel and Copper Industry - Indonesia has attracted over $80 billion in investments for nickel smelting plants over the past decade, and is rapidly becoming a significant player in the copper smelting industry as global demand for copper rises [1] - In the past year, Indonesia has attracted over $9 billion in investments in the copper sector, including a large copper refining facility by Freeport Indonesia in East Java and a new smelting plant by Amman Mineral in West Nusa Tenggara [1][2] - The Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry anticipates more copper smelting plants will emerge, contingent on sufficient financing and long-term investments [2] Group 2: Demand for Copper in Electric Vehicles - Analysts indicate that interest in copper processing plants is increasing, driven by the significant rise in electric vehicle production, with each battery pack for medium-sized electric vehicles containing approximately 10% copper, or about 80 kilograms [2] - By 2030, Indonesia's annual sales of four-wheeled electric vehicles are expected to reach 195,000 units, and two-wheeled electric vehicles are projected to reach 5 million units, with each four-wheeled vehicle requiring 83 kilograms of copper [3] Group 3: Current and Future Copper Production - Freeport Indonesia's copper refining facility in East Java is expected to produce at least 1.1 million tons of cathode copper annually, moving the country from sixth to fifth in global rankings for this category [4] - The new copper refining facility in East Java resumed operations in late May after a temporary closure due to a fire, with a processing capacity of 1.7 million tons of copper concentrate, yielding 650,000 tons of cathode copper [4][5] - Amman Mineral began producing cathode copper in March and is currently fine-tuning new equipment to achieve full and continuous capacity, with a processing capacity of 900,000 tons of copper concentrate [5] Group 4: Investment Potential and Industry Gaps - Indonesia has 220.3 million tons of copper reserves, ranking 10th globally, but its refined copper output ranks 16th, indicating a significant investment potential in the copper refining sector [3] - The current copper processing facilities primarily produce anode copper for decorative coatings and cathode copper for electric vehicle batteries, but there is a lack of facilities for producing sintered copper products for automotive electrical systems [3][4]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) 78,640.00 | +350.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,708.50 | +41.00↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) 140.00 | -30.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 149,902.00 | -7527.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) 3,115.00 | +4480.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 95,875.00 | -3325.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) 100,814.00 | -1129.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 41,450.00 | -3350.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) 22,425.00 -2856.00↓ | | | | | | SMM1#铜现货(日,元/吨) 78,415.00 | +90.00↑ 长江有色市场1#铜现货(日,元/吨) | ...

【6月美联储按兵不动，铜市多因素交织有调整压力但下跌空间或有限】6月，美联储按兵不动，连续四 次会议暂停降息，预计今年降息两次，暗示滞胀风险增加。地缘风险、关税政策不确定及降息延后，压 制了市场风险偏好。 供应方面，上周国内TC报价为 -43.80美元/吨，仍处历史低位，显示矿石供应紧 张。预测2025年全球铜冶炼产能利用率或跌破80%，中国炼厂面临减产压力。虽冶炼亏损，但国内减产 意愿有限，间接支撑铜精矿报价。预计6月国内电解铜产量环比降0.72万吨，降幅0.63%，同比增12.61 万吨，升幅12.55%；1 - 6月累计产量预计同比增67.09万吨，升幅11.34%。 需求端，因铜价处于阶段高 位，下游采购意愿不足，开工率放缓，拿货积极性低。终端电线电缆有韧性，但家电排产缩水，高温阶 段房地产形成拖累。近期基本面变化不大，总体供应偏紧，淡季需求有边际走弱预期。 库存上，上周 LME库存持续下降，纽约期货库存升至20万吨以上，再创近年新高，机构赌美国对铜产品进口加征关 税预期未减。国内社会库存小幅反弹，期货库存回落。 市场观点认为，6月美联储按兵不动等因素压制 市场风险偏好。铜矿TC维持深度负值，虽精铜矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Jinchuan Copper Co., Ltd. marks a new era of market-oriented, professional, and international high-quality development for the company in the non-ferrous metal sector [2][7]. Group 1: Company Development - On June 19, 2023, Jinchuan Copper Co., Ltd. was officially unveiled, transitioning into a joint-stock company after completing a share reform within a year [3][7]. - The company has integrated 13 subsidiaries, including Guangxi Jinchuan Company and Yongchang Copper Industry Company, under the restructuring plan to enhance regional resource collaboration [2][5]. Group 2: Industry Position and Strategy - Jinchuan Copper has established a complete circular industrial chain covering copper smelting and precious metal recycling, leading in platinum group metal production in Asia and ranking third in cathode copper production in China [5]. - The company is actively expanding its product applications in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy, electronic information, and aerospace, forming deep partnerships with industry leaders to drive technological upgrades [5][7]. - Jinchuan Copper aims to promote high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in the industry, positioning itself as a benchmark for high-quality development and contributing to industry innovation [7].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铜产业日报 2025/6/19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 78,310.00 | -550.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,591.00 | -64.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 200.00 | +60.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 175,704.00 | -8662.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -1,564.00 | ...