Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. reported a 6.39% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 compared to the same period last year, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased significantly due to increased tax expenses from adjustments in overseas subsidiary dividend arrangements [3][5]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 76.08 billion, up from CNY 71.51 billion in the previous year [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.12 billion, a decrease of 35.29% from CNY 1.73 billion in the same period last year [3]. - Basic earnings per share dropped to CNY 0.11 from CNY 0.17, while diluted earnings per share fell to CNY 0.11 from CNY 0.16 [3]. - Total assets increased by 12.22% to CNY 90.84 billion compared to the end of the previous year [3]. Business Overview - The company operates as a large-scale integrated copper production enterprise, engaging in copper mining, smelting, processing, and trading, with key products including cathode copper, sulfuric acid, gold, silver, copper foil, and copper strips [4][5]. - The primary business model includes both self-mined and externally purchased copper raw materials for processing into cathode copper [4]. Industry Conditions - Copper prices fluctuated between CNY 71,320 and CNY 88,320 per ton in the first half of 2025, with an average spot price of CNY 77,520.77, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.98% [5]. - The supply side faced challenges with global mine output falling short of expectations, while demand from the new energy sector and traditional industries supported price increases [5]. - The copper smelting segment experienced pressure on profits due to low processing fees, although rising prices of by-products provided some relief [5]. Competitive Advantages - The company is one of the largest producers of cathode copper in China, with an annual production capacity exceeding 1.7 million tons and a strong position in copper foil production [6]. - Technological advancements and a focus on high-value-added products have strengthened the company's market position [6]. - The company's location in the economically vibrant Yangtze River Delta region provides logistical advantages and access to a significant consumer market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the financial performance of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. for the first half of 2025, indicating a revenue increase but a significant decline in net profit and earnings per share [1][5]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the reporting period reached approximately CNY 76.08 billion, representing a 6.39% increase compared to the same period last year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to CNY 143.15 million, a decline of 35.19% year-on-year [4][5]. - Basic earnings per share fell to CNY 0.11, down 35.29% from CNY 0.17 in the previous year [1][4]. Financial Ratios - The weighted average return on equity decreased to 4.20%, down from 6.68% in the previous year, reflecting a decline of 2.48 percentage points [1]. - The total assets increased by 12.22% to approximately CNY 90.84 billion compared to the end of the previous year [1]. - The asset-liability ratio rose to 54.54%, an increase of 6.74% from 47.80% at the end of the previous year [4]. Shareholder Information - The largest shareholder, Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, holds 47.77% of the shares, with no changes in the controlling shareholder during the reporting period [2][3]. - The top ten shareholders include various institutional investors, with no significant changes in their holdings reported [2][3]. Investment Activities - The company has partnered with several investment institutions to establish a venture capital fund, with a total fund size of CNY 1.004 billion, aimed at optimizing and extending the industrial chain [5]. - As of June 30, 2023, the company has completed its capital contribution to the partnership, amounting to CNY 85 million [5].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Copper Industry has demonstrated resilience and strength in a complex market environment, achieving significant revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2025 [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported operating revenue of 12.811 billion yuan, an increase of 2.81% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 487 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.85% [1]. Product Structure - The main product, cathode copper, generated revenue of 9.439 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.85% due to copper price fluctuations [3]. - Precious metals business revenue surged to 2.529 billion yuan, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 52.04%, accounting for 19.74% of total revenue [3]. - Sulfuric acid business revenue reached 102 million yuan, up 197.33% year-on-year [3]. - Revenue from copper strips and rolled copper foil amounted to 632 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.59% [3]. Resource Advantages - Northern Copper Industry possesses a large underground mine with an annual processing capacity of 9 million tons [4]. - The copper mine has a resource reserve of 218.6092 million tons and a copper metal reserve of 1.330925 million tons, with an average geological grade of 0.608% [4]. - The company can sustain its mining operations for over 20 years at the current extraction scale [4]. - In 2024, gold sales reached 6,319 kilograms, generating revenue of 3.56 billion yuan, which constituted 14.77% of total revenue [4]. - The company plans to produce 6 tons of gold ingots in 2025, with precious metals expected to contribute around 13% to total revenue [4]. Technological Innovation - The company increased R&D investment to 26.463 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 48.60% [5]. - Advanced smelting processes have been implemented to ensure safe and stable production while maximizing the recovery of valuable elements [5]. - The company aims to focus on high-end, high-value-added products and is advancing digital transformation in traditional industries [5]. - The high-performance rolled copper strip and copper-clad laminate project is currently in trial production, expected to positively impact financial metrics as production processes improve [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - environment shows the US dollar oscillating at a low level, which boosts non - ferrous metals. However, the copper market's fundamental demand is weak, failing to support a market rebound. Currently, copper prices remain in a narrow - range fluctuation, awaiting market drivers. The downstream demand is insufficiently supported, with high - temperature and rainy weather affecting downstream terminal demand, and the real - estate sector dragging down the market, while the power grid performs well. Although there is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, overall demand remains tepid [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - **Macro Data**: The US July producer price index (PPI) had a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended to mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is no sign of a decline in copper production, and the smelter's production enthusiasm is fair. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - **Demand**: High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak downstream terminal demand. Rising copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. The power grid performs well, but the real - estate sector is a drag. There is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, which supports domestic copper prices to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the day, and faced pressure. The closing price was 79,060 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 2,322 to 101,223 lots, and the short positions increased by 10 to 100,094 lots [5]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 25 yuan/ton. On August 14, 2025, the LME official price was $9,751/ton, with a spot premium of - $85.5/ton [5]. Supply - side As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.98/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 24,600 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 short tons, an increase of 9 short tons from the previous period [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Production and consumption - side inflation rebounds, reducing the expected number of Fed rate - cuts. However, the decrease in scrap - copper - produced anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may keep the Shanghai copper price oscillating. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 14, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,950 yuan, down 430 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 51,734 lots, a decrease of 315 lots; open interest was 152,341 lots, a decline of 6,536 lots; SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 79,435 yuan, down 40 yuan, and inventory was 24,434 tons, an increase of 1,634 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spread**: The Shanghai copper basis was 485 yuan on August 14, 2025, an increase of 390 yuan from the previous day. There were also changes in spot premiums and discounts in different regions and spreads between different contract months [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on August 14, 2025, was 9,777, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants dropped by 155,850 tons. There were also changes in contract spreads [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on August 14, 2025, was 4.4975, down 0.02 from the previous day, and the total inventory increased by 915 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: Government policy adjustments may cause the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises to continue to decline [2]. - **Supply Disruptions**: There are operational disruptions in copper mines, and the Las Bambas project in Peru may be affected by the presidential election. There are also changes in the supply of electrolytic copper from South America [2]. - **Project Developments**: Multiple copper - related projects are under construction or planned, which may affect the production of electrolytic copper in August, such as the Jiangtong Hongyuan Phase II project, the Baotou Jinshan High - Purity Copper project, etc. Some overseas smelters face issues like equipment failure, supply shortages, and high costs [2]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see. For Shanghai copper, pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the pressure level around 80,000 - 81,000; for London copper, the support level is around 9,300 - 9,500 and the pressure level is around 10,000 - 10,200; for US copper, the support level is around 4.0 - 4.2 and the pressure level is around 4.6 - 5.0 [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78505，基差15，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：8月8日铜库存减150至155850吨，上期所铜库存较上周增9390吨至81933吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 期现价差 数据来源：Wind 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2 ...

沪铜日评20250808: 国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环碱,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少 | 2 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 变量名称 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-06 | 2025-07-30 | 较昨日变动 | 近期定势 | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 78460 | 78280 | 78930 | 180.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 42710 | 26388 | 55888 | -13.679.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 157601 | 158574 | 171689 | -973.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 20145 | 20346 | 19973 | -201.00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 78500 | 78350 | 79285 | 150.00 | | | | 沪铜县差 | 40 | 70 | 355 | -30.00 - | | | (现货与期货) | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -45 ...

供需维持宽松压制上行动力，铜或在区间偏弱震荡 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差： 8月6日SHFE铜主力合约价格小幅回落至78210元/吨，较前一交易日下跌 0.37%，LME铜价同步下探至9634.5美元/吨。基差方面，国内现货升贴水全 线走弱，平水铜升水跌至65元/吨，环比前一日缩窄40.91%，湿法铜甚至转 为平水，反映现货交投趋弱；LME（0-3）贴水扩大至-67.32美元/吨，海外 市场供应压力加剧。 持仓与成交： LME铜持仓量减少1316手至265284手，市场交易情绪偏谨慎；国内SHFE库存 持续积累至156125吨，环比前一周增加1.48%，库存压力上升对价格形成压 制。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端： 短期扰动频发，印尼PTGresik冶炼厂因设备故障检修2-4周，影响约2万吨 产量；国内新增产能逐步释放，如安徽中晟铜业年产4万吨铜带项目、福建 广闽铜业3.5万吨冷轧高精铜板带项目，但产能落地仍需时间。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙皓 ...

"反内卷"主题有望助力铜冶炼资产价值重估 20250806 摘要 预计第四季度至明年第二季度需求恢复，铜价迎来窗口期。美国经济数 据低于预期，降息预期增强，美元走弱，利好铜价。精炼铜关税调整风 险减小，宏观层面利好铜价走势。 COMEX 库存或缓慢下降，LME 库存逐步上升但幅度不大。美国市场库 存压力尚未完全显现，不排除未来部分库存流向海外，COMEX 价格折 算后可能低于 LME 价格。 供给依然紧张，短期需求较弱，呈供需双弱状态。海外铜企产量环比略 增，同比微降，受卡莫阿矿震、泰克和自由港产量下调等因素影响。智 利地震或影响后续产能，科布里矿山复产最快明年年中，短期供应仍紧 张。 国内企业中，五矿资源增量较大，约 10 万吨，洛钼预计超产 5 万吨， 紫金因艾芬豪影响产量下调但仍预计增加 5-6 万吨。国内企业预计贡献 约 20 多万吨增量，全球总增量预计 20 多万吨。 国内线缆企业开工率低于去年同期，家电行业外需大幅下降。汽车行业 保持稳定增长，电子行业小幅增长，地产继续负增长。四季度抢出口因 素消退，国家电网投资增长，铜需求不会大幅下降。 COMEX 库存可能会缓慢下降，而 LME 库存则逐步上升 ...