摩根士丹利发布研报称，由于中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森表示，政府指示限制过剩产能，并关 闭非法建设的铜冶炼产能，该行相信一旦落实措施，将会利好铜价及主要铜企。因此，该行相信紫金矿 业（601899）(02899)股价有七成至八成机会，在未来15天内上升。 ...

摩根士丹利发布研报称，中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森表示，由于政府指示限制过剩产能，约有 200万吨铜冶炼产能已被停产，所有违反规定的在建冶炼产能也已暂停运营。若该政策落实执行，将利 好铜价及主要铜生产商。该行预期江西铜业股份(00358)及洛阳钼业(03993)股价将于未来15日内上升， 机会率约70%至80%，目标价分别为37.3港元及18.6港元，均予"增持"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that the stock price of China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (01208) is likely to rise in the next 15 days, with a probability of approximately 70% to 80% [1] Industry Summary - The Vice President of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Chen Xuesen, indicated that due to government directives to limit excess capacity, approximately 2 million tons of copper smelting capacity has been shut down [1] - All non-compliant smelting capacities under construction have also been suspended [1] - The implementation of these measures is expected to benefit copper prices and major copper companies [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley has given China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 8.4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has expressed strong opposition to the phenomenon of zero or negative processing fees in the copper smelting industry, calling it an "unsustainable structural contradiction" that harms the interests of the global copper smelting sector, including China [1][2]. Industry Response - The association's vice president, Chen Xuesen, emphasized the dangers of negative processing fees, urging the global copper industry to confront this issue and promote cooperation among relevant countries and stakeholders [2]. Capacity Management - China is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity by halting approximately 2 million tons of illegal capacity to curb excessive expansion, with these capacities either under construction or in planning stages [3]. Future Development - In the coming years, China will prioritize the development of new smelting capacity that utilizes scrap materials instead of importing copper concentrate, aiming to reduce reliance on imports and alleviate overcapacity pressures [4]. Market Dynamics - The decline in processing fees to historical lows is attributed to a structural imbalance between raw material shortages and excess smelting capacity, with spot processing fees dropping to extreme levels, raising concerns about industry sustainability [4]. - Global copper smelting companies are facing the impact of low processing fees, with companies like Japan's JX Advanced Metals announcing production cuts and Glencore's Mount Isa smelter receiving government support to maintain operations [4]. Long-term Negotiations - Analysts believe that the current pressure on processing fees is unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, as the market awaits the upcoming 2026 long-term contract negotiations to establish a more sustainable pricing mechanism [7]. - The core issue of the negotiations will be whether the long-standing benchmark system can continue to be applicable, with expectations of further adjustments to the annual benchmark system and a shift towards more diverse and complex negotiation formats [7].

格隆汇11月26日｜中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森表示，"坚决反对"铜行业实行零甚至负加工精炼 费(TC/RC)政策，这种做法严重损害包括中国在内的全球铜冶炼行业的利益。 ...

11月24日（周一），印度大亨Gautam Adani在古吉拉特邦投资12亿美元的铜冶炼厂，在全球供应吃紧的 情况下，只收到了年产量50万吨工厂满负荷运转所需要的矿石的一小部分。 经过多次延期后，Kutch Copper公司于今年6月开始加工金属。海关数据显示，目前购买的原材料还不 到其所需的十分之一。在截至10月的10个月内，该公司进口约14.7万吨铜精矿。竞争对手Hindalco Industries公司同期内购买的数量略高于100万吨。 "Adani的冶炼厂是新的，应该比很多竞争对手更有效率，因此短期内该冶炼厂可能会亏本增产，"分析 师Grant Sporre说道。他并称，印度也可能会提高关税，以保护本国产业。他称，这将意味着接受"短期 痛苦来换取长期收益"。 （文华综合） 海关数据显示，必和必拓集团（BHP Group）向该冶炼厂供应铜精矿4,700吨，其他供应来自嘉能可和 Hudbay。 该冶炼厂需要约160万吨铜精矿才能满负荷运转。 Kutch Copper公司起步缓慢，提醒人们印度在提升金属产量自给自足方面面临障碍。基础设施、电力和 建筑行业需求猛增远远超过了其有限的加工能力，并限制国内矿石储备 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is optimistic [1]. Core Insights - The industry is entering a "low TC" era, with copper smelting enterprises facing significant challenges and the need for transformation [2]. - The report highlights that TC/RC has dropped to negative levels, indicating a tightening supply of copper concentrate [8][12]. - The report discusses the impact of recent production cuts from major copper mines, which have led to a significant reduction in supply [12][18]. - The profitability of smelting enterprises is under pressure, with many operating at a loss, relying on by-product revenues for survival [15][18]. - Future policies are expected to focus on controlling copper smelting capacity to prevent excessive competition and promote industry consolidation [22][23]. Summary by Sections Section 1: TC at a Decade Low - TC/RC has reached negative values, with imported copper concentrate TC around -42 USD/dry ton as of November 2025 [8]. - Major copper mines have experienced production cuts, leading to a total reduction of 570,000 tons in supply [12]. - Smelting enterprises are currently facing losses, with by-products like sulfuric acid becoming crucial for profitability [15][18]. Section 2: Future Outlook on TC - The report anticipates that TC will remain low over the next two years, with a projected supply gap of around 500,000 tons in 2026 [29]. - Policies are being developed to set a "capacity ceiling" for copper smelting to enhance industry structure and efficiency [22][23]. - The pricing model for copper smelting may shift, with companies like Freeport considering individual contract pricing to maintain profitability [25]. Section 3: Strategies for Smelting Enterprises - Smelting enterprises are encouraged to extend their supply chains and reduce costs through technological advancements and operational efficiencies [36][41]. - The report emphasizes the importance of increasing the recycling of copper and optimizing the use of by-products to enhance profitability [41][42].

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Summary of the Conference Call for Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. Industry Overview - The copper industry is experiencing significant changes due to resource acquisition and market dynamics. The global average copper ore grade has declined from 0.86% in 2000 to 0.6% in 2023, with projections to drop to 0.56% by 2030. This trend is coupled with a decrease in major new discoveries and limited new projects, leading to a potential stagnation in global copper production in 2025 compared to 2024 [7][8]. Company Developments - Tongling Nonferrous has enhanced its resource reserves significantly by acquiring a 70% stake in China Railway Construction's Tongguan, injecting the Mirador copper mine's high-quality resources. This acquisition is expected to improve the company's copper concentrate self-sufficiency and reduce production costs [2][4]. - The first phase of the Mirador copper mine has been operational since 2019, producing approximately 90,000 tons of copper metal annually. The second phase is expected to commence in 2025, with an annual processing capacity of 46.2 million tons of ore and an anticipated output of 200,000 tons of copper metal by 2027 [2][4]. Financial Performance - Despite a decline in net profit in the first half of 2025 due to increased tax expenses from overseas subsidiaries, the overall profit margin remains stable when excluding tax impacts. The company's revenue and net profit have shown an upward trend from 2020 to 2024, with a projected increase in cathode copper production to 1.896 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year growth of over 7% [5][6][10]. Market Demand - The demand for copper is expected to rise significantly in emerging sectors such as renewable energy, electric vehicles, and AI data centers. For instance, electric vehicle sales alone are projected to contribute an additional 224,000 tons of copper demand by 2025, while renewable energy generation will require at least 17.4 million tons in the long term [8][9]. Competitive Advantages - Tongling Nonferrous is positioned as one of the most comprehensive enterprises in the domestic copper industry, with over 1.65 million tons of combined resources and stable production capabilities. The company is actively expanding its upstream and downstream operations, including investments in a green intelligent copper-based new materials industrial park to enhance product value and mitigate industry volatility [9][10]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in profits, with projected net profits of 3.64 billion yuan, 5.07 billion yuan, and 5.74 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for these years are 0.27 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.43 yuan. Based on a comparable company PE ratio of 26, a target price of 6.08 yuan is set for the company [14]. Additional Insights - The company is also expanding its operations in the electronic information industry and precious metals sector. The production capacity for high-precision electronic copper foil has reached 80,000 tons, with a revenue growth of 44.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025. The precious metals segment is expected to see a significant increase in gold production, with the second phase of Mirador adding nearly 2.65 tons of gold annually, marking an over 50% increase compared to 1.7 tons in 2024 [3][13].

【冠通期货研究报告】 美国就业数据影响市场 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜平开高走，日内下跌。 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日铜平开高走，日内下跌。美国 9 月季调后非农就业人口新增 11.9 万人，预期 5.0 万人，前值由 2.2 万人下修至-0.4 万人。9 月失业率从前值 4.3%上升至 4.4%，预期 4.3%。11 月预计 5 家冶炼厂检修，涉及粗炼产能 150 万吨，预计检修影响量为 4.80 万 吨，但 10 月检修企业逐渐有复产，且铜价上移后，生产端积极性增加，产量有望上移。 据 SMM 调研了解，再生铜杆企业反映有个别地区或将恢复政府扶持工作，具体如何执行 仍需等待下周缴税后。铜价上移后，废铜供应增多，弥补铜矿端资源不足的缺口。需求 方面，铜价重心上移，下游消费受限，传统行业受前期关税及国补政策影响出现需求前 置，近期成交氛围偏弱，除电力及动力电池新能源外，下游需求表现均不佳。2025 年 10 月中国未锻轧铜及铜材出口量为 134304 吨，同比增长 67.8%；进口量为 44 万吨，同比 下降 13.5%。上期所铜库存连续累库目前同比偏高 98.63% ...