I. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. II. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the market analysis of industrial silicon and polysilicon, covering aspects such as fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend strength. For industrial silicon, it shows characteristics of warehouse receipt de - stocking and a resilient performance in the futures market. For polysilicon, there is increasing policy interference, and the upside potential should be noted [2]. III. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Market**: The Si2509 closing price is 9,690 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,172,879 lots and a position of 336,274 lots. The PS2509 closing price is 53,765 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,123,795 lots and a position of 172,564 lots. There are also data on spreads and cross - period costs for both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums and discounts against different benchmarks (e.g., +470 yuan/ton against East China Si5530), and polysilicon has a spot premium and discount of - 7740 yuan/ton against N - type re - investment [2]. - **Price**: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 is 10,100 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 10,300 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 46,000 yuan/ton. There are also price data for related products in the polysilicon (photovoltaic) and other industries [2]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profits in Xinjiang and Yunnan are - 1,511 yuan/ton and - 3,384 yuan/ton respectively for the new standard 553. Polysilicon enterprise profit is - 18.1 yuan/kg, and there are profit data for DMC and ADC12 enterprises [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 53.5 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.8 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.3 million tons. Polysilicon's factory inventory is 24.3 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. are provided, with price changes over different time periods [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - The 21.6MW centralized photovoltaic power generation project of Dongfang Hope Zhundong Industrial Park's thermal power plant has been officially connected to the grid. It can generate over 31 million kWh of electricity annually, replace about 9,400 tons of standard coal, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by over 25,000 tons, contributing to the regional green power supply and the "dual - carbon" goal [3][4]. 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1, indicating different market outlooks for the two [4].

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - After the 232 investigation is finalized, the non-US region's electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. The next stage may return to macro trading, and the negotiation of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US will also disrupt copper prices. The main focus is on the support level of 78,000 [1]. Aluminum - The price of alumina is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2,950 - 3,250 this week. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of a squeeze caused by policy changes in Guinea and the reduction of warehouse receipts. The aluminum price is currently at a high level but is expected to face short - term pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro disturbances. The reference price range for the main contract this week is 19,950 - 20,750 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy market is expected to be weak and fluctuate mainly, with the main reference range of 19,400 - 20,200. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with more prominent demand - side contradictions [5]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long term, zinc is still in a cycle of loose supply. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may maintain a high - level shock pattern; otherwise, the zinc price center may move down. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,000 [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. The cost support for refined nickel has weakened, and the medium - term supply is expected to remain loose [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. It is recommended to continue holding short positions established at previous high levels [12]. Stainless Steel - The short - term stainless steel market will mainly fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,500 - 13,000. The overall supply may decrease, but the demand is weak and the inventory reduction is slow [15]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to remain strong in a certain range, with the main reference range of 63,000 - 70,000. However, there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The focus is on the upstream operation actions [19]. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,020 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 is - 64.49 dollars/ton, down 16.22 dollars/ton from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.72 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a decrease of 0.30% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 253,100 tons, an increase of 1.23% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,570 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 1,286 yuan/ton, an increase of 120.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous month. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a decrease of 3.22% from the previous month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price is 20,100 yuan/ton, up 0.50% from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 monthly spread is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 615,000 tons, an increase of 1.49% from the previous month. The primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 255,000 tons, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,110 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The 2508 - 2509 monthly spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, an increase of 6.50% from the previous month. In May, the import volume was 26,700 tons, a decrease of 5.36% from the previous month [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 1.35% from the previous day. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price (ex - factory price) is 900 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, a decrease of 10.04% from the previous month. The import volume is 19,157 tons, an increase of 116.90% from the previous month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 261,900 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread is - 108 dollars/ton, an increase of 7 dollars/ton from the previous day [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the tin ore import volume was 13,449 tons, an increase of 36.39% from the previous month. The SMM refined tin production was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37% from the previous month [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot - futures spread is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) in the current period is 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83% from the previous month. The import volume is 125,100 tons, a decrease of 12.00% from the previous month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 64,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis (based on SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate) is - 3,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 88.48% from the previous day [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, an increase of 8.34% from the previous month. The demand was 83,815 tons, a decrease of 0.15% from the previous month [19].

Group 1 - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a weak performance with prices showing a downward trend, currently fluctuating around 8740.0 CNY/ton, with a maximum of 8770.0 CNY and a minimum of 8585.0 CNY, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.08% [1] - New Lake Futures indicates that the industry fundamentals remain loose with both supply and demand increasing, but inventory absorption is still weak, leading to limited price upside and continued pressure on prices [1] - Hualian Futures notes an increase in the number of industrial silicon furnaces last week, while downstream demand for aluminum alloys is weakening, resulting in a standoff between supply and demand, with high prices not being accepted by the market [1] Group 2 - Jianxin Futures reports that industrial silicon production continues to exceed 70,000 tons, with monthly output expected to remain above 310,000 tons, driven by recovery in the Southwest production area [2] - Demand for polysilicon is projected to increase to 100,000-110,000 tons in July, but overall monthly demand growth is insufficient, with an increase of less than 20,000 tons [2] - The futures warehouse receipts are beginning to increase, and there is a positive expectation from industrial policies, leading to a short-term strong oscillation in the market [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, and the fundamentals are expected to remain weak in the second half. The supply may increase during the wet season, while the demand is overall weak, with the export market expected to decline year-on-year. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is relatively weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] - The cost of industrial silicon may further decrease, but it is necessary to focus on policy impacts. The supply capacity has increased, but the output has decreased. The demand shows a pattern of significant recovery in exports and suppressed demand due to polysilicon production cuts [10][11][12] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. In the second half, the supply is affected by policy disturbances and cost pressures, with certain uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry is facing a situation of large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand, and the price will face greater pressure without policy intervention. The price is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] - The cost of polysilicon has significantly decreased, mainly driven by the decline in raw material prices and energy cost optimization. The supply has decreased, and the pressure of overcapacity remains large. The demand is driven by the short - term increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, but the growth rate is expected to decline [19][20][23] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 First - Half Price Review Industrial Silicon - From January to February 2025, the industrial silicon price was relatively firm due to production cuts in the southwest and northwest regions. In March, the price declined due to increased supply pressure and weak demand. From April to May, the price accelerated its decline under the influence of the US trade war and falling raw material costs. In June, the price rebounded after hitting the bottom [6][33] Polysilicon - In the first half of 2025, the price of polysilicon first stabilized and then declined. It was stable around the Spring Festival and declined in April due to reduced downstream orders and falling raw material prices [18][34] 2025 Second - Half Price Outlook Industrial Silicon - The supply is expected to increase during the wet season, and the demand is overall weak. The inventory pressure is large, and the cost support is weak. Without policy intervention, the price is expected to range from 6,000 to 9,000 yuan/ton [7][35][36] Polysilicon - The supply is affected by policy and cost, with uncertainties, but the overall operation may remain at a low level. The industry has large capacity, high inventory, and weak demand. Without policy intervention, the price will face pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate between 31,000 and 40,000 yuan/ton [18][25][37] Supply - Side Situation Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the overall furnace - opening rate was 27.62%. In 2024, about 650,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there were about 700,000 tons of built - but - unoperated capacity and nearly 1 million tons of planned capacity. The output from January to June 2024 decreased by 15% year - on - year, mainly due to price drops and production cuts in most regions. The northwest has become the main production area [45][46] Polysilicon - In 2024, 850,000 tons of new capacity were added, and there are still about 470,000 tons of capacity under construction or built but unoperated. The production in the first half of 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year, and the average operating rate of enterprises dropped to a historical low. The annual output is expected to decrease to about 1.2 million tons [20][102][109] Cost and Profit Industrial Silicon - In the first half of 2025, the raw material cost of industrial silicon decreased, and the full cost and cash cost also decreased. The electricity price in some areas decreased, and the prices of silicon coal, charcoal, electrodes, and silica also declined. Without policy intervention, the cost may further decrease, but the decline space is limited [55][56] Polysilicon - In 2025, the production cost of polysilicon decreased significantly, mainly due to falling raw material prices and optimized energy costs. The current tax - free cash cost of granular silicon can be controlled at 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of rod - shaped silicon is between 30,000 and 45,000 yuan/ton [19] Export - End - From January to May 2025, China's metal silicon exports totaled 272,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%. The annual export volume is expected to decrease by 5 - 10% year - on - year compared to 2024, mainly affected by the global economic outlook and overseas tariff policies [69] Consumption - End - In the first half of 2025, the production of polysilicon decreased significantly year - on - year, organic silicon increased slightly, and the demand for aluminum alloy increased steadily. The export volume is expected to decline due to the slowdown of overseas economies [72] Organic Silicon - As of June, the total production capacity of Chinese organic silicon monomers reached 6.88 million tons/year. The production from January to June increased by about 1% year - on - year. The consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of the traditional construction industry decreasing and that of new energy, electronics, and other fields increasing. The overall consumption growth may slow down in the second half of the year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be about 5%. The price decreased after a slight rebound in the first quarter, and the industry operating rate was between 60% and 70% [72][73] Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the overall operation of the aluminum alloy industry remained stable, and the consumption of industrial silicon increased. From January to June, the production of primary aluminum alloy increased by 12.4% year - on - year, and that of recycled aluminum alloy increased by 1% year - on - year. The downstream consumption of aluminum alloy increased, and the primary industrial silicon consumption in 2025 is expected to be 650,000 tons [92][95] Polysilicon (Continued) Supply - Side - In early 2025, the domestic polysilicon capacity remained high, but the production decreased significantly in the first quarter due to low prices and industry self - discipline agreements. The production increased slightly in the second quarter, but the overall operating rate remained low [102] Consumption - Side - In the first half of 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation rush significantly drove the demand for polysilicon, but the demand entered a vacuum period after June. The overseas market demand was weak. The growth rate of new installations in 2025 is expected to decline, with domestic new installations expected to be 310GW and global new installations about 610GW [112][114] Import and Export - From January to April, the export of photovoltaic modules decreased by 6% year - on - year. Only the African market showed significant growth, while the European, American, and Middle - Eastern markets declined [115] Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - As of the end of June, the inventory of the metal silicon industry was 970,000 tons. The inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, is expected to increase slightly in the wet season of the second half, and may decrease slightly in the fourth quarter. The annual inventory is expected to increase slightly, and the industry inventory pressure remains high [171] Polysilicon - The upstream inventory of polysilicon is large, and the total industry inventory is expected to be higher than 400,000 tons. The total inventory decreased slightly in the first half of the year, and if the industry self - discipline production cuts are effective, a slight reduction in inventory is expected throughout the year [171]

Report Overview - Report Title: Cast Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: July 6, 2025 - Report Author: Mo Xiaoxiong, Wang Zongyuan - Industry Investment Rating: Neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - Cast aluminum alloy prices are supported by cost, but the upside is limited due to weak demand, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6] - The micro - fundamentals show that inventory remains high in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in scrap aluminum circulation [6] - The automotive market had a significant sales push at the end of the quarter in June, and consumer enthusiasm remains high [6] Supply - Side Analysis Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining [14] - The scrap - to - refined price difference shows a trend of narrow - range fluctuations and a gradual upward trend [6] Recycled Aluminum - Cast aluminum alloy prices have declined slightly in the short term, and the spread between ADC12 and A00 continues to weaken [27] - The regional spread of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [32] - The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has been slightly reduced, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [37] - ADC12 production is currently in a state of average loss [42] - The obvious and hidden inventories of cast alloys have decreased slightly [47] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [49] - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods show certain regional characteristics [52][54] Demand - Side Analysis - In the terminal consumption, the production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption [59]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

Group 1 - The carbon market is experiencing a short-term price decline due to macroeconomic factors, but market activity and transaction volume are increasing, indicating robust development. Long-term expectations suggest tightening carbon emission quotas from 2026, pushing companies towards green energy and energy-saving technologies [2] - The electricity market reform is driven by the surge in renewable energy installations, leading to increased pressure on grid peak regulation. The reform aims for full market-based pricing for renewable energy, which may create revenue uncertainties and has led to a drop in demand since June [3] - Domestic polysilicon production remains stable at 90,000 to 100,000 tons per month, with annual capacity exceeding 3 million tons. However, high inventory levels and unstable profit expectations from photovoltaic power generation have resulted in weakened demand [4] Group 2 - Industrial silicon prices have unexpectedly dropped below 7,000 yuan per ton, below the optimal cost line for leading companies. Despite losses, production remains stable due to employment and loan pressures, with monthly production at 300,000 tons [5] - The lithium carbonate market is facing increasing oversupply, with projected supply of 1.6 million tons and demand of 1.3 million tons by 2025, leading to a surplus of 200,000 tons. Prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term [6] - The aluminum alloy futures market has low participation and limited delivery sources, with a focus on cost factors such as scrap aluminum prices and industrial silicon [10][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - In the short - term fundamental aspect, the casting aluminum alloy market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. As the off - season deepens, negative demand feedback appears. Casting aluminum alloy enterprises reduce their production due to sales pressure, leading to a decrease in demand for scrap aluminum, a rise in the refined - scrap price difference, and lower costs. In the short term, the price of casting aluminum alloy is expected to face pressure during the off - season, with a bearish outlook [6]. - Considering historical seasonality, the monthly structure is likely to show a Back pattern in the third quarter. At the initial listing stage, market participants can layout inter - period long - spread positions. After the near - end structure becomes Back, they can also consider entering inter - period long - spread positions at low prices and expect to realize profits during the peak consumption season [6]. - Usually, when the ADC12 - A00 price difference converges, one can enter a short - ADC12 and long - A00 position. Currently, the profit - loss ratio of this position is not good. In the third quarter, as automobile production increases, the demand for ADC12 will be positively affected, and one can pre - arrange a long - ADC12 and short - A00 position [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9]. - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining [11]. - The refined - scrap price difference is showing a trend of recovery [15]. Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The price of casting aluminum alloy has a short - term small increase, and the ADC12 - A00 price difference has significantly converged [19]. - The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy shows that the southwest region is relatively weak and has certain seasonal patterns [24]. - The operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has been slightly adjusted downward, and the monthly operating rate is at a historical low [29]. - The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average profit is in a loss state [31]. - The obvious and hidden inventories of casting alloys are increasing [33]. - The import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [34]. - Regarding recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data show certain trends, with specific production and inventory distribution in different regions [38][40]. Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles has declined, which has a negative impact on die - casting consumption [45].