1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market will start an upward trend in advance in 2024, and the price will show a large - range shock in 2025, first testing the effectiveness of the low - level support [15][11] - The US and Chinese economies are the dominant factors in price fluctuations of non - ferrous metals [3][14][59] - Copper mine supply determines that the growth of refined copper production will remain at a high level [3][14][59] - Aluminum, alumina, and zinc are the main short - selling varieties in 2025 [3][14][59] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Copper Price Long - term Trend and 2025 Price Range - The low - to - high multiple of copper price is 2.5 times, and the determining factors are cost and the US dollar index [5][7][9] - In 2025, the copper price will have a large - range shock and first test the effectiveness of the low - level support. The price ranges mentioned are 8100 - 8700, and specific prices like 8900, 7800, 7500 are also given [11][16][12] - In 2024, the copper market started to rise in advance. From March to May, due to factors such as supply shortage, optimistic economic expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and supply risks, the copper price rose from 8000 to 11000 US dollars. After May 20, the price dropped due to increased production and inventory in China and the US economy not having a soft landing. There was a rebound from August to September because of policies and interest rate cuts [15][17][20] 3.2 The US and Chinese Economies as Price Fluctuation Dominant Factors US Economy - The US economic data affects the copper price. For example, during the 1994 - 1996 soft - landing period, the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment policies influenced the economic situation. Trump's policies included internal tax cuts and external tariff increases, and if he is re - elected, potential policies such as further tax cuts, tariff increases, and immigration policies may also impact the economy [23][27][29] - The predicted real GDP growth rates for the US in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 2.9%, 2.8%, and 2.2% respectively [56] Chinese Economy - The Chinese government's debt - replacement policy has significantly reduced the local debt scale and saved about 60 billion yuan in interest expenses over five years. It has also helped local areas enhance development momentum, promote economic growth, and improve the financial asset quality [48] - The Central Politburo Meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference require maintaining economic stability, employment, and price stability in 2025. Fiscal policies will be more active, and monetary policies will be moderately loose [50][51] - The predicted real GDP growth rates for China in 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively [56] 3.3 Copper Mine Supply Determines High - level Growth of Refined Copper Production Global Copper Mine Supply - The global copper mine supply growth rate has been adjusted upwards. The predicted growth rate in 2024 is 1.71% (380,000 tons in increment), higher than the May expectation, and 3.55% in 2025. The over - expected production in 2024 is due to the smooth production of some mines and lower - than - expected interference [61][62][63] - Many mines have production changes from 2023 - 2025, with a total planned increment of 3.3846 million tons, and the actual increment after considering interference is 1.6579 million tons [64] - There are various interference factors in copper mines, such as contract issues, grade decline, and production suspension, with a total interference volume of 818,000 tons in 2024 [65] Copper Smelting - The growth of smelting capacity is higher than that of copper mine capacity. From 2024 - 2026, new smelting capacity is about 5 million tons, while copper mine production only increases by 1.66 million tons, resulting in a large copper mine gap [66][67][68] - In 2024, the global refined copper production is 26.196 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.79%, and it is expected to increase by 3.44% in 2025. In China, the refined copper production in 2024 is 12.05 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.33%, and it is expected to increase by 4.32% in 2025 [71] - The production of different smelters in China and overseas will change in 2025, with an overall increase in global refined copper production [72][73] Copper Consumption - In 2023, global refined copper consumption increased by 3.9% to 25.3 million tons. It is expected to increase by 3% to 26.06 million tons in 2024 and by 3.08% in 2025. The growth in 2023 was mainly contributed by the new energy sector [74][75][76] - The consumption of copper in the new energy sector (solar and wind power, new energy vehicles) is an important factor. Although the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales and the copper consumption per unit may decline, the overall consumption is still increasing [78][84][86] 3.4 Aluminum, Alumina, and Zinc as Main Short - selling Varieties in 2025 Aluminum - The dominant factors of aluminum price are supply - demand balance and cost. The supply - demand balance of aluminum is determined by the economy, and alumina price is one of the factors causing aluminum price fluctuations [89][90] - With the growth of bauxite supply in Guinea, the bauxite supply - demand will turn to surplus again. It is expected that the bauxite production in Guinea will increase by about 2.387 million tons in 2025 compared with 2024 [92][95] - The export profit of alumina shows the leading role of overseas quotes. The decline of the Australian FOB price of alumina will drag down the domestic spot price [96][98] - It is expected that the alumina production will increase by 3.6 million tons to 89.6 million tons in 2025, with an increase of about 4.2%. The bauxite supply - demand balance in 2025 is affected by the import volume, and the price may decline in the second half of the year [99][101] Zinc - It is expected that the idealized increment of global zinc concentrate in 2025 is about 989,700 tons, but considering various factors, the actual increment is estimated to be between 400,000 - 600,000 tons [106][107] - It is predicted that the global refined zinc production will increase by 3.3% to 14.1 million tons in 2025 [111] - In China, the supply - demand balance of refined zinc will turn from a deficit in 2024 to a surplus in 2025. Globally, the supply - demand balance of refined zinc will also turn from a deficit in 2024 to a surplus in 2025 [113][115]

Report Information - Date: May 8, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. Each commodity has a specific outlook, such as price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and the impact of macro - economic and industry news [2][4]. Commodity Summaries Precious Metals - **Gold**: Slight progress in Sino - US negotiations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The prices of different gold contracts showed various changes, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings [5][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to decline in a volatile manner. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Silver prices also showed fluctuations in different contracts [5][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Falling inventories limit price declines. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. There are supply - demand changes in the copper market, and some companies' production has increased [11][13]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook. Some alumina enterprises plan to cut production [14][15]. - **Zinc**: Operating under pressure. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Zinc prices and inventory data have changed [16][17]. - **Lead**: Weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [19][20]. - **Nickel**: The price range has narrowed, and nickel prices have returned to narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Some Indonesian nickel projects' production capacity utilization is increasing [22][24]. - **Tin**: Prices weakened during the holiday. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [25][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Weak demand, with a weak performance in the futures market. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. Panasonic is exiting the solar and energy storage business, affecting the industry [30][32]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price hit a new low since listing. The trend strength is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [30][32]. Energy - related Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The cost center continues to move down, and the inventory build - up pattern restricts price rebounds. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, with wide - range oscillations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The central bank has implemented a series of monetary policies [36][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Poor demand expectations, with prices fluctuating at low levels. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [40][41][44]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by macro factors, prices are oscillating widely. The trend strength of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [45][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and coking coal is affected by the sentiment of coal terminal desilting, also showing a weak trend. The trend strength of both is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [49][50][52]. - **Steam Coal**: Affected by the sentiment of forced desilting at ports, prices are oscillating weakly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [53][55]. Other Commodities - **Glass**: The price of glass original sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [56][57][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Positive spread arbitrage between months, with expanding processing margins. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply disruptions and trade negotiations affect the price [60][63][65]. - **PTA**: Long PTA and short SC. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The supply - demand pattern is changing, with some device maintenance [60][64][66]. - **MEG**: Long PTA and short MEG. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Supply is expected to increase, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory [60][66][67]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. Vietnam's rubber export situation is changing, and the new supply is expected to increase gradually [68][70][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, short - term observation is recommended as there is a possibility of correction in the short - to - medium term, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [4]. - For copper, prices are expected to remain high before May Day due to short - term tariff alleviation, strong pre - holiday consumption, and supply - side speculation. After May Day, the impact on consumption should be monitored [10]. - For alumina, prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [18]. - For electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and domestic demand - boosting policies [21]. - For zinc, prices may rebound due to low social inventory, but the fundamentals are under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [26]. - For lead, prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro factors and import profitability [31]. - For nickel, prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and a mid - term strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [36]. - For stainless steel, prices may fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [43]. - For industrial silicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [47]. - For polysilicon, the short - term price is expected to be weak, and short - term positive arbitrage should take profit and exit [49]. - For lithium carbonate, a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [54]. - For tin, prices are expected to adjust with fluctuations in the short term, and risk prevention is necessary [58]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - On Friday, precious metals gave back the previous day's gains. London gold closed down 0.9% at $3318.62 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.53% at $33.1 per ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined [2]. Important Information - Trump made statements about tariff negotiations, and the US 4 - month inflation expectations and consumer confidence index were released. The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates was also given [2]. Logic Analysis - Trump's attitude softening boosted market risk appetite, but after China's clarification, the market entered a wait - and - see state. Precious metals may correct in the short - to - medium term [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily observe. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [5]. Copper Market Review - LME copper closed at $9375 on Friday, up $15 or 0.16%. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. Important Information - Trump made statements about trade agreements, and major copper producers' production and sales expectations were reported [8]. Logic Analysis - Macro: Trump's trade agreement plan. Supply: Concentrate processing fees are falling, and smelter losses may increase. Demand: Downstream consumption has decreased, but pre - holiday stocking demand has increased [10]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will remain high before May Day. After May Day, short - selling opportunities can be considered if consumption is affected. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [10][11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session futures contract of alumina 2505 fell by 8 yuan/ton to 2823 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [13]. Important Information - There were issues with the Guinean shipping terminal, and the market supply was in a state of increase and decrease alternation. The relationship between price and production capacity was also analyzed [14]. Logic Analysis - After price declines and increased losses, production capacity adjustments occurred. Short - term supply - demand surplus was alleviated, and the market focused on the ore end [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [18]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai aluminum 2506 rose by 15 yuan/ton to 19970 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions increased [19]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and Trump's tariff statements were reported, and aluminum ingot inventories decreased [19][20]. Logic Analysis - Tariff issues are in negotiation. Fundamentally, the weighted开工率 of aluminum processing is stable, and the import of aluminum ingots may limit price increases. The annual supply - demand is expected to be in surplus [21]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to tariff and domestic demand policies. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [21]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 2.22% to $2645.5/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.86% to 22550 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [23]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting, industrial enterprise profit data, and LME's plan for a low - carbon metal premium mechanism were reported [24][25]. Logic Analysis - In May, domestic zinc concentrate supply will be relatively loose, and refined zinc production will remain high. Consumption is expected to decline after the peak season [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices may rebound due to low inventory, but short - selling on rallies can be considered. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [26]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.84% to $1945/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 fell 0.94% to 16855 yuan/ton. Spot trading showed different performances in different regions [28]. Important Information - The Politburo meeting and the approval of nuclear power projects were reported [31]. Logic Analysis - Domestic secondary lead smelting may cut production due to losses. Prices may be strong, but attention should be paid to import profitability [31]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Prices will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and import factors. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Observe [31]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15490/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot premiums and prices showed different trends [33]. Important Information - The production capacity and project responses of some nickel - related companies were reported, and Vale's nickel production increased [33][35]. Logic Analysis - Macro sentiment affects short - term prices. In May, the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased, but the full price remained firm. Supply is high, and demand may decline [36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds in the mid - term. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract of stainless steel SS2506 fell to 12685 yuan/ton, and inventories decreased. Spot prices were reported [38][39]. Important Information - Steel Union's inventory statistics were reported [39]. Logic Analysis - Cost - driven price increases may end, and demand is unclear. Short - term prices follow nickel and macro factors, and may decline in the medium term [42]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term. - Arbitrage: Observe [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The futures price of industrial silicon fell 0.85% to 8780 yuan/ton, and spot prices continued to decline [45]. Important Information - An organic silicon factory planned to carry out maintenance [45]. Comprehensive Analysis - DMC prices are falling, and monomer enterprise maintenance is increasing. Demand is weak, and supply may increase. The price is in a negative cycle [46]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - sell on rallies. - Options: Observe. - Arbitrage: Participate in reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [47]. Polysilicon Market Review - The futures price of polysilicon fell 1.84% to 38390 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [49]. Important Information - National energy data showed an increase in photovoltaic installation [49]. Comprehensive Analysis - Component, silicon wafer, and battery prices are falling, and the industry is pessimistic about demand. The futures market has strong multi - empty games, and prices are expected to decline [49]. Strategy - Unilateral: Observe in the short term and pay attention to manufacturers' production of delivery products after the holiday. - Options: None. - Arbitrage: Take profit and exit the long PS2506 and short PS2511 arbitrage [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main contract of lithium carbonate fell to 68180 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined [53]. Important Information - The progress of the automobile circulation reform and Tesla's situation in India were reported [53]. Logic Analysis - Production decreased last week, but inventory increased slightly, indicating weak demand. After May, supply may increase, and prices may be under pressure [53]. Pre - holiday Positioning Suggestion - Unilateral: Short - sell on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Observe. - Options: Hold put ratio options [54]. Tin Market Review - The night - session futures contract of Shanghai tin 2505 fell 0.3% to 262025 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased. Trading was light [56]. Important Information - Trump's trade agreement statements and Tin Industry Co.'s quarterly report were reported [57]. Logic Analysis - Trump's trade negotiation plan may cause market fluctuations. The short - term supply of tin ore is tight, but the annual supply - demand tension is relieved [58]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adjust with fluctuations in the short term and pay attention to risks. - Options: Observe [58][60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial derivatives and commodity futures markets, including financial futures (stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals (gold, silver), shipping index, and multiple commodity futures such as non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and special commodities. It provides market conditions, news, fundamentals, and operation suggestions for each category, highlighting the impact of factors like tariffs, economic data, and supply - demand relationships on prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy had a good start in Q1. The A - share market showed mixed performance, with blue - chip indices rising in the afternoon. Four major stock index futures contracts had different trends, and all were at a discount. Given the current situation, it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 at low levels to collect premiums [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The capital market remained stable, and the bond market closed higher. Although Q1 economic data exceeded expectations, the bond market priced more on the impact of declining external demand. It is suggested to go long on treasury bond futures on dips, participate in positive basis strategies, and consider steepening the yield curve [6][7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The sudden US tariffs on China caused market turmoil. Safe - haven funds pushed up the gold price to a new high. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to conduct intraday trading and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection. Silver is affected by economic downturn and high inventory, and its price is expected to fluctuate between 29 - 34 dollars [9][11][12]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index showed a downward trend. The current spot supply - demand pattern is cold, and it is recommended to consider going long on the over - sold contracts in June and August in the medium term [13][14][16]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It presents a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". Tariff policies increase price volatility. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract should focus on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [17][20][22]. - **Zinc**: Tariff policies cause price fluctuations. The supply is strong, and the demand is relatively stable. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, and the main contract should focus on the 20500 - 21500 support level [22][23][25]. - **Tin**: The macro situation is weak, and the supply side is gradually recovering. It is recommended to hold short positions and adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [25][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy has been implemented, and the price is expected to oscillate and recover. The main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [28][29][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro uncertainty, and the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [32][33][34]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro sentiment has been digested, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the main contract is expected to operate between 68000 - 72000 [36][37][38]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The de - stocking of five major steel products has slowed down, and the expectation of weakening long - term demand has increased. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider a long - steel and short - ore arbitrage strategy [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output is rising, and the port inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [41][42][43]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction has improved slightly, but the inventory is high. It is also recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal in the short term [46][47][49]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply is decreasing rapidly, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [50][51][52]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The mainstream steel procurement has shrunk, and the inventory pressure remains. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [53][54][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The low domestic开机 rate boosts the basis, and US soybeans lack upward drivers. The price may face a short - term correction [56][57][58]. - **Hogs**: The secondary fattening transactions have declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The pig price lacks the power to rise continuously [59][60]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term and be strong in the long term [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic price maintains a high - level oscillation. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the long term [64][65].