Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the market is watching the Sino-US summit. The copper price was strong yesterday. In the medium to long term, the supply-demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price's bottom center. In the short term, the rapid increase in price suppresses demand. The market should focus on the marginal changes in demand and Sino-US tariffs, with the main contract supported around 87,000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. The supply pressure is significant, and the demand is weak. The alumina price is expected to remain under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price has continued to be strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The market is in a tight balance, and the aluminum price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and oscillated at a high level. The cost support is strong, and the supply-demand relationship is in a tight balance. The inventory is gradually decreasing. The ADC12 price is expected to remain strongly oscillating in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro environment is warm. The zinc price oscillated strongly yesterday. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stable. The LME has the risk of a short squeeze, and the export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price is supported in the short term but may continue to oscillate [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Powell's hawkish remarks on the December interest rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. Considering the strong fundamentals, a low-buying strategy on dips is recommended. The market should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price oscillated yesterday. The macro sentiment has improved, and the ore price is firm, providing cost support. However, the inventory accumulation exerts some pressure. The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price oscillated and rose slightly yesterday. The macro environment is positive, but the nickel-iron and ferrochrome prices are under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was strong yesterday. The production has increased, and the demand is optimistic. The raw material supply is tight, and the inventory is decreasing. The lithium carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short term, with the market watching whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 334,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to -30 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The average price difference between refined and scrap aluminum in Foshan decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1,774 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to -40 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. The export volume was 2,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 200 yuan/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased by 15.13% month-on-month. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.20%. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.26%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.00% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to -15 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300-series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 manufacturers) was 1.8217 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.38%. The import volume was 120,300 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.70% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. The SMM industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, a month-on-month increase of 12.28% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, and there is still room for further monetary policy easing, but the subsequent rate - cut rhythm may slow down. The upcoming Sino - US high - level meeting in Busan, South Korea may bring changes to tariffs. - The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the bottom center of prices. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may face cash - flow losses and experience phased production cuts. It is expected that the domestic refined copper output in October may decline month - on - month. - Downstream demand for copper is resilient. Although there is a fear of high prices, more purchase orders will be released after the price drops. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market has shown signs of stabilizing at a low level, with futures prices rebounding slightly and spot market trading activity increasing. However, the supply pressure is still significant, and the demand is weak. The full - caliber inventory has increased by 64,000 tons this week. The cost support of bauxite is gradually weakening, and the profit margin of the industry has shrunk. It is expected that the alumina price will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. - The aluminum price has continued to be strong, and the spot market discount has gradually widened, indicating that high prices are suppressing actual purchases. The macro - environment is generally favorable, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. It is expected that the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20800 - 21400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy followed the high - level oscillation of the aluminum price. The cost support is prominent, and the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, pushing up the procurement cost. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern. The inventory is in a slow de - stocking process. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Overseas interest rates were cut as expected, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. The supply - side logic of zinc has shifted from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. The demand is stable without exceeding expectations. The LME has a risk of a short squeeze, and the export window of zinc ingots is intermittently open. The zinc price may be supported in the short term but will likely maintain an oscillation without a clear turning point in the supply - side logic [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee is at a low level. The demand is still weak, and although AI computing power and the photovoltaic industry have driven some tin consumption, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut may cause the tin price to fall in the short term. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it may continue to be strong [11]. Nickel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The production of refined nickel remains high, and the ore price is firm. The nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the stainless - steel demand is weak. The downstream ternary still has inventory - building demand, but the medium - term supply may increase. The inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate in the medium term, with the main contract ranging from 118000 - 126000 [13]. Stainless Steel - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp and ended the balance - sheet reduction. The Sino - US meeting will boost the market. The ore price is firm, and the nickel - iron price is under pressure. The chromium - iron market is weak and stable. The supply pressure of stainless steel is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The social inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the stainless - steel price will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12500 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate futures price has been relatively strong, with the main price center moving up. The production has been increasing, and the downstream demand is optimistic. The raw - material inventory is being depleted quickly, and the supply of concentrate is tight. It is expected that the short - term market will remain strong, and attention should be paid to whether the price can break through 83,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 140 yuan/ton to 87,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.16%. - The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 60 yuan/ton. - The SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 290 yuan/ton to 87,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.33%. - The SMM wet - process copper price decreased by 155 yuan/ton to 87,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.18%. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 324.15 yuan/ton to 4299 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.15% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons or 4.31% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic copper import volume was 334,300 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons or 26.50% compared with the previous month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 21,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05%. - The import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton to 2914 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 135,000 tons or 1.74% compared with the previous month. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 118,000 tons or 3.16% compared with the previous month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 107 yuan/ton to 1774 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.69% [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 661,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons or 7.48% compared with the previous month. - The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 283,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons or 4.43% compared with the previous month [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09%. - The import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton to 5088 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 26,100 tons or 4.17% compared with the previous month. - The refined zinc import volume was 227,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 11.61% compared with the previous month [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 285,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60 dollars/ton to 40 dollars/ton, a decrease of 60% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a decrease of 1553 tons or 15.13% compared with the previous month. - The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 4880 tons or 31.71% compared with the previous month [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 121,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [13]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, an increase of 400 tons or 1.26% compared with the previous month. - The refined nickel import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 526 tons or 3.00% compared with the previous month [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton. - The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron ex - factory average price decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16% [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) was 1.8217 million tons, an increase of 6900 tons or 0.38% compared with the previous month. - The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 423,500 tons, an increase of 1500 tons or 0.36% compared with the previous month [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 79,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.83%. - The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 650 yuan/ton to 76,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.85% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2020 tons or 2.37% compared with the previous month. - The lithium carbonate demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12,778 tons or 12.28% compared with the previous month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom, but short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract price is expected to range between 87,000 - 89,000 yuan/ton. [1] Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum Alloy - Cost support and supply - demand balance drive the price up, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints. The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton. [5] Zinc - Zinc prices are supported by macro - level interest - rate cut expectations and LME squeeze risks. However, the supply is relatively loose, and the price may oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply logic. The main contract is expected to range from 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton. [9] Tin - Strong supply fundamentals support the tin price to oscillate strongly. Future trends depend on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [11] Nickel - Macro - level sentiment weakens slightly, but cost support exists. With inventory accumulation, the price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [13] Stainless Steel - The policy is stable, demand during the peak season is weak, and supply pressure may increase. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. [14] Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals have improved, with a supply - demand gap during the peak season. The short - term price is expected to be strong, with the main focus on whether it can break through 83,000 yuan/ton and 85,000 yuan/ton. [17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.35% to 87,905 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 9.22% to 3,975 yuan/ton. [1] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. [1] Weekly Fundamental Data - The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton, and domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 67.81 million tons. [1] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 1.03% to 13.46 million tons, and COMEX inventory decreased by 0.06% to 34.77 million short tons. [1] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price remained unchanged at 21,160 yuan/ton. The alumina prices in Shandong, Guangxi, and Guizhou decreased. [3] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons. [3] Weekly Fundamental Data - The aluminum profile开工率 increased by 0.37% to 53.70%, and the aluminum foil开工率 decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%. [3] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 0.77% to 46.6 million tons. [3] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased. [5] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons. [5] Weekly Fundamental Data - The recycled aluminum alloy开工率 increased by 7.73% to 57.54%. [5] Daily Fundamental Data - The daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan decreased by 0.20% to 33,257 tons. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.27% to 22,270 yuan/ton. The import loss increased to - 5,294 yuan/ton. [9] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons. [9] Weekly Fundamental Data - The galvanizing开工率 decreased by 0.57% to 57.48%. [9] Daily Fundamental Data - LME inventory decreased by 4.86% to 3.5 million tons. [9] Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.28% to 284,300 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 8.14% to - 14,746.45 yuan/ton. [11] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8,714 tons, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons. [11] Inventory Data - SHEF inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons. [11] Nickel Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.734% to 122,150 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 18.314% to - 898 yuan/ton. [13] Production and Inventory Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons. [13] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton. [14] Raw Material Prices - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.22% to 927 yuan/nickel point. [14] Monthly Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons. [14] Weekly Fundamental Data - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.37% to 49.49 million tons. [14] Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 2.55% to 78,500 yuan/ton. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 2.10% to 825 dollars/ton. [17] Monthly Fundamental Data (September) - Lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons. [17] Inventory Data - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 84,539 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 15.29% to 60,998 tons. [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The preliminary consensus between China and the US boosts market optimism, and copper prices hit a new high this year. In the short - term, the negotiation rhythm will drive trading. The 9 - month CPI further consolidates the expectation of interest rate cuts in October, with 2 possible cuts this year and the Fed stopping balance - sheet reduction. - Tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. If by - product prices like sulfuric acid continue to fall and TC remains low, smelters may cut production. Downstream demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of copper prices, while short - term rapid increases may suppress demand. The main contract should focus on the support around 86,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot market trading became more active. Supply pressure is significant due to high domestic operating capacity and an open import window. Demand is weak, and the full - caliber inventory increased by 64,000 tons last week. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea, cost support from the ore end is weakening. Short - term alumina prices will be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton [3]. - Aluminum prices were strong, breaking through 21,300 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is mixed, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance. Supply of ingots is restricted by the high direct - supply ratio of molten aluminum, and demand shows resilience in the peak season. Aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 626,000 tons on October 28. Short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,800 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices oscillated strongly, with cost support becoming more prominent. Tight scrap aluminum supply pushed up procurement costs, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance. Supply is restricted by raw - material circulation and policy uncertainty, and demand shows stable resilience. Inventory is decreasing. Short - term ADC12 prices will maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The preliminary consensus between China and the US warms the macro - atmosphere, and zinc prices oscillated strongly. The supply - side logic of loose supply has spread from zinc ore to zinc ingots, and subsequent supply growth may be limited due to compressed smelting profits. Demand is stable, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, supporting zinc prices. The export window for zinc ingots is intermittently open. Short - term zinc prices have support at the bottom, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main contract should refer to 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees remain low. In September, domestic tin ore imports decreased month - on - month. The change in Myanmar's tax method is expected to limit the improvement of tin ore supply this year. Demand is still weak, and although AI and the photovoltaic industry drive some consumption, it cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. Tin prices will oscillate strongly, and the follow - up depends on macro - changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [10]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated, and refined nickel prices rose slightly. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, the 14th Five - Year Plan brings policy expectations. Refined nickel production remains high. Ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and industry profits are shrinking. Stainless steel demand is weak, while downstream ternary materials still have restocking needs. Inventory is accumulating. Short - term prices will oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were slightly adjusted down. Overseas, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising; domestically, policies are mainly for stability. Nickel ore prices are firm, but nickel - iron prices are under pressure, and chromium - iron markets are weak. Supply pressure will increase in October, and demand improvement is not obvious. Social inventory is decreasing slowly. Short - term prices will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures were strong, with the main contract LC2601 rising 2.53% to 81,900 yuan/ton. After entering the peak season, there is a supply - demand gap, which is expected to widen in October. Production is increasing, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. Downstream demand is optimistic, and raw - material inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices will run strongly, with the upper limit first observing the capital performance around 82,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton, and then 85,000 yuan/ton if it breaks through [16]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 2.08% to 88,520 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 55 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 15.30% to 4,379 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 25.97 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 786 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 60 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a 4.31% month - on - month decrease; imports were 334,300 tons, a 26.50% month - on - month increase. The import copper concentrate index decreased by 4.22% to - 42.70 dollars/ton. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% to 678,100 tons. The electrolytic copper rod - making start - up rate decreased to 61.55%, while the recycled copper rod - making start - up rate increased to 18.29%. Domestic social inventory decreased by 1.13% to 184,500 tons; bonded - area inventory decreased by 5.02% to 92,800 tons; SHFE inventory decreased by 4.94% to 104,800 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.28% to 136,000 tons; COMEX inventory increased by 0.13% to 348,000 short tons; SHFE warrants increased by 0.92% to 35,400 tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.24% to 21,160 yuan/ton; SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 40 yuan/ton. The average price of alumina in Shandong decreased by 0.71% to 2,795 yuan/ton [3]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread remained at - 20 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a 1.74% month - on - month decrease; electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a 3.16% month - on - month decrease; imports were 246,800 tons, a 13.57% month - on - month increase; exports were 29,000 tons, a 13.07% month - on - month increase. The aluminum profile start - up rate increased by 0.37% to 53.70%; the aluminum cable start - up rate increased by 0.63% to 64.40%; the aluminum plate - strip start - up rate decreased by 1.47% to 67.00%; the aluminum foil start - up rate decreased by 0.55% to 71.90%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 1.03% to 59.00%. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.16% to 626,000 tons; LME inventory decreased by 0.81% to 469,000 tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 3.32% to 1,869 yuan/ton [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 25 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 75 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 40 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, a 7.48% month - on - month increase; primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 283,000 tons, a 4.43% month - on - month increase; scrap aluminum production was 797,600 tons, an 8.16% month - on - month increase; unforged aluminum alloy ingot imports were 82,200 tons, a 15.77% month - on - month increase; exports were 23,500 tons, a 19.24% month - on - month decrease. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 7.73% to 57.54%; the primary aluminum alloy start - up rate increased by 4.60% to 56.57%. The recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory decreased by 0.18% to 54,700 tons. The daily inventory in Foshan increased by 0.23% to 33,323 tons; in Ningbo, it decreased by 1.27% to 13,179 tons; in Wuxi, it decreased by 7.09% to 1,873 tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,210 yuan/ton; the premium remained at - 55 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss improved to - 5,139 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.34 [8]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread remained unchanged at - 35 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a 4.17% month - on - month decrease; imports were 22,700 tons, an 11.61% month - on - month decrease; exports were 2,500 tons, a 696.78% month - on - month increase. The galvanizing start - up rate decreased to 57.48%; the die - casting zinc alloy start - up rate decreased to 53.13%; the zinc oxide start - up rate decreased to 56.36%. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 1.09% to 163,500 tons; LME inventory decreased by 1.46% to 37,000 tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.57% to 283,500 yuan/ton; the SMM 1 tin premium decreased by 16.67% to 250 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 43.00% to 143 dollars/ton [10]. Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss worsened by 4.00% to - 16,052.47 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 7.92 [10]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 16.33% to - 570 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100.00% to - 200 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 80.00% to - 90 yuan/ton; the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 400.00% to 350 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease; SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a 31.71% month - on - month decrease; refined tin imports were 1,269 tons, a 2.08% month - on - month decrease; exports were 1,748 tons, a 6.59% month - on - month increase; Indonesian refined tin exports were 4,800 tons, a 50.00% month - on - month increase. The SMM refined tin average start - up rate decreased by 31.77% to 43.60%; the SMM solder enterprise start - up rate increased by 2.19% to 74.80%. The average price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan increased by 0.59% to 271,500 yuan/ton; the Yunnan 40% tin concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton [10]. Inventory Change - SHEF weekly inventory increased by 1.32% to 5,766 tons; social inventory decreased by 2.69% to 6,828 tons; SHEF daily warrants increased by 1.53% to 5,652 tons; LME daily inventory decreased by 0.91% to 2,725 tons [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.12% to 123,050 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased by 0.08% to 124,300 yuan/ton; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium decreased by 3.92% to 2,450 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel price increased by 0.16% to 122,250 yuan/ton; the 1 imported nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased to - 194 dollars/ton. The futures import profit and loss improved by 38.59% to - 759 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased to 7.98. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.21% to 929 yuan/nickel point [12]. Production Cost - The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte - produced electrowon nickel decreased by

Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, tin prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation. The 10 - month interest rate cut is certain. Trump's optimistic signals about China - US relations and China's emphasis on "anti - involution" after the Fourth Plenary Session influenced market sentiment. The supply side is under pressure due to continuous disruptions in domestic and overseas mines and maintenance of some domestic smelters, while the demand from traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is weak, and the growth in emerging fields is uncertain. Overall, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Considering the macro - upward drive and the large proportion of mine - end disturbances, tin is still regarded as a long - term investment. In the short term, it is advisable to enter the market on dips [2]. Summaries by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Tin prices had a narrow - range oscillation this week. Macroeconomic factors included a confirmed October interest rate cut, Trump's optimistic signals on China - US relations, and China's emphasis on "anti - involution". Fundamentally, there were continuous disturbances at the mine end, some domestic smelters were under maintenance, TC continued to decline, and the supply - side pressure was obvious. Demand from traditional consumer electronics and home appliances was weak, and the growth in emerging fields was uncertain, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation [2]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 288,000 yuan and sell 25% of the call options SN2511C290000 when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 277,000 yuan and sell 25% of the put options SN2511P270000 when the volatility is appropriate. The latest closing price of Shanghai tin is 284,300 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 265,000 - 290,000 yuan, the current volatility is 18.59%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 45.8% [20][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1.015036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The added value of the primary industry was 580.61 billion yuan, up 3.8%; the secondary industry was 3.6402 trillion yuan, up 4.9%; the tertiary industry was 5.92955 trillion yuan, up 5.4%. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 281,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.32%); 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, unchanged; 40% tin concentrate is 269,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.33%); 60% tin concentrate is 273,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.33%); 60A solder bar is 182,750 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan (0.27%); 63A solder bar is 190,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan (0.26%); lead - free solder is 288,250 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan (0.35%) [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's Q3 GDP annual rate and the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate data will be released [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Tin Futures Disk Data**: The latest price of the main Shanghai tin contract is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 3,550 yuan (1.26%); Shanghai tin continuous - one is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 3,120 yuan (1.11%); Shanghai tin continuous - three is 284,450 yuan/ton, up 3,100 yuan (1.1%); LME tin 3M is 35,650 US dollars/ton, up 678 US dollars (1.94%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.84, down 0.03 (- 0.38%). - **Tin Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts total 5,567 tons, down 85 tons (- 1.5%); Shanghai tin inventory is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons (- 3.2%); LME tin registered warehouse receipts are 2,495 tons, down 10 tons (- 0.4%); LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts are 255 tons, up 25 tons (10.87%); LME tin inventory is 2,720 tons, up 145 tons (5.63%); social inventory is 9,644 tons, down 110 tons (- 1.13%) [24][25][26]. **Internal Market Analysis** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, tin prices oscillated within a narrow range, closing at 280,700 yuan per ton. Currently, profitable seats are mainly long in net positions. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the domestic term structure changed to a B - structure, affected by the expected increase in future supply [27][29]. **Internal - External Price Difference Tracking** - This week, the internal - external price difference was relatively stable, with a narrow - range oscillation [34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Yunnan's tin ore processing fees have long been hovering at historical lows, which has put pressure on smelters' profits and suppressed their production willingness [37]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - There are data on the seasonal import volume of Chinese tin ore and concentrates and unforged non - alloy tin, but no specific profit - related analysis is provided in the part of the summary. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply side is under great pressure due to mine - end disturbances and smelters' losses [44]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - There are data on the seasonal monthly production of domestic refined tin, recycled refined tin, and the seasonal monthly apparent consumption of Chinese tin ingots, but no specific demand - side deduction analysis is provided in the part of the summary.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite following the Sino - US trade talks. Macro factors like tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and COMEX - LME spread are important. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, but high prices may suppress downstream demand. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. Spot prices are expected to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is significant, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to LME zinc market concerns and Sino - US trade talks, zinc prices rebounded. Supply is expected to be loose, and demand has no outstanding performance. Short - term prices may be driven by macro factors, but the upward elasticity is limited, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices continued to oscillate at a high level. Supply is tight, and demand is weak. Future price trends depend on the recovery of Burmese tin ore supply in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Macro factors are temporarily stable, cost has support, but inventory accumulation exerts pressure [12]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices are expected to weakly oscillate, with the main contract in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton. There is cost support at the ore end, but demand during the peak season is not strongly boosted [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with the main contract in the range of 76,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. The fundamentals have improved, with strong demand during the peak season and continued destocking [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85,490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day. The opening discount decreased. The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3,366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day. Alumina prices in various regions declined slightly [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price differences in various regions increased to varying degrees [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 6,393 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price fell to 280,000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The import loss increased to 16,213.05 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122,150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day. The import loss decreased to 670 yuan/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in September was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13,000 yuan/ton. The futures - spot price difference decreased to 405 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month. The import volume increased by 2.70% to 12.03 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74,800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) decreased to - 1,980 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month. The demand was 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday. High prices are suppressing demand, but terminal demand remains resilient. The supply shortage of copper ore supports the price bottom. It is expected that the domestic refined copper production in October may decline month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and the Sino - US tariff negotiations. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices were slightly stronger yesterday. The supply is stable, and the demand shows resilience in the peak season. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices were slightly stronger, with cost support. The supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and the demand is moderately recovering. The inventory has started to decline slowly. It is expected that the ADC12 price will maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Due to concerns about a short squeeze in the LME zinc market, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded after hitting the bottom. The supply is abundant, but the increase in domestic zinc smelters in the second half of the year may be limited. The macro - economic environment with high probability of interest rate cuts supports the zinc price. The demand is not exceeding expectations. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will maintain an oscillation in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the supply side is strong. The demand is weak, and the new demand cannot make up for the decline in traditional consumption. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the macro - economic changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market had a narrow - range oscillation. The macro - economic risk has increased, and the ore end has some positive factors. The refined nickel production remains high, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market had a narrow - range oscillation. The macro - economic environment has some positive factors, but the nickel - iron price is under pressure, and the demand in the peak season is not strongly boosted. It is expected that the market will oscillate weakly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market was strong. The supply - demand gap remains after entering the peak season. The downstream demand is optimistic. The inventory is declining. It is expected that the market will run strongly in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [18][20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 84,955 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 6.66% to 3,145 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month; the import volume was 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the previous day. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2,820 yuan/ton, down 0.35% [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production was 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 1.12% to 1,809 yuan/ton [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 21,900 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The import loss was - 6,123 yuan/ton, down 760.42 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% month - on - month; the import volume was 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin was at 281,000 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 56.00 US dollars/ton, up 50.00% from the previous day [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 370 yuan/ton, up 11.90% from the previous day [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import was 8,714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 122,100 yuan/ton, down 0.33% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,500 yuan/ton, up 2.04% from the previous day [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: In September, the Chinese refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,010 tons, down 3.00% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (CIF) average price was 58 US dollars/wet ton, up 1.75% from the previous day [16]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; the import volume was 12.03 million tons, up 2.70% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,350 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price was 857 US dollars/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day [18]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 340 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, up 2.37% month - on - month; the demand was 116,801 tons, up 12.28% month - on - month [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report Copper - Copper prices were volatile yesterday, with high prices suppressing demand. In the macro - aspect, attention should be paid to tariff policies, overseas liquidity, and the COMEX - LME spread. In the fundamental aspect, tight copper ore supply supports the price bottom. High copper prices have a certain inhibitory effect on downstream demand, but terminal demand remains resilient. The main contract is expected to find support between 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure significant and demand weak. The aluminum market is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes, downstream acceptance of high prices, and inventory depletion rhythm [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price in a range - bound shock. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty pose constraints. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong shock, with the main contract ranging from 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices were volatile. The supply - side logic of looseness has been transmitted from zinc ore to zinc ingots. Demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but has limited upward elasticity. The main contract is expected to range from 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, while demand is weak. Considering the strong supply - side influence, attention should be paid to buying points when the macro - sentiment falls. The subsequent trend depends on the recovery of Myanmar's supply in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be range - bound. Macro risks have increased, and there is some positive news from the ore end. However, inventory accumulation exerts pressure. The main contract is expected to range from 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 12,400 - 12,800 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel - mill supply [14][16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be strong in the short term. The main contract is expected to range from 75,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to macro risks [17][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.01% to 85,630 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 5 yuan/ton to 60 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread increased by 31.75% to 3,570 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% month - on - month to 112.10 million tons, while imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 3.11% week - on - week to 68.07 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.10% to 20,930 yuan/ton, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% month - on - month to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices remained unchanged. The refined - scrap spreads in different regions showed an increasing trend [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% month - on - month to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 21,870 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 101.06 yuan/ton to - 4,429 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% month - on - month to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.36% to 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 10.08% to - 142.00 dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month to 10,510 tons, and the average SMM refined tin operating rate decreased by 31.77% to 63.90% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.20% to 122,100 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.08% to 2,400 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% month - on - month to 32,200 tons, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17,010 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 3.93% week - on - week to 61,188 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) decreased by 0.38% to 12,950 yuan/ton, and the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.38% month - on - month to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.89% to 74,000 yuan/ton, and the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread remained unchanged at 2,250 yuan/ton [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% month - on - month to 87,260 tons, and the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.38% to 84,538 tons [17].