据悉，印尼政府预计镍矿2026年配额为2.5-2.6亿吨，相较于2025年的3.79亿吨降幅超过34%。国信证券 发布研报称，印尼是全球最大的镍矿供应国，同时也有着非常成熟的配额制制度，其有意通过政策的调 整来提高镍矿开发的门槛及成本。该行认为，未来镍价的变化将主要取决于印尼镍矿配额的调整，不完 全排除印尼政府极端收紧镍矿供给的黑天鹅事件。 消息面上，据报道，印尼莫罗瓦利镍矿中心发生山体滑坡，导致一名工人遇难，并冲走了数台挖掘机、 推土机和倾卸卡车。方正证券认为，这将对印尼镍产出造成影响，考虑到印尼政府对镍价的力挺态度， 镍价有望在1.8万美元以上运行。 镍业股早盘普涨，截至发稿，力勤资源(02245)涨8.33%，报29.64港元；新疆新鑫矿业(03833)涨3.42%， 报2.72港元；中伟新材（300919）(02579)涨3.4%，报38.28港元。 ...

据悉，印尼政府预计镍矿2026年配额为2.5-2.6亿吨，相较于2025年的3.79亿吨降幅超过34%。国信证券 发布研报称，印尼是全球最大的镍矿供应国，同时也有着非常成熟的配额制制度，其有意通过政策的调 整来提高镍矿开发的门槛及成本。该行认为，未来镍价的变化将主要取决于印尼镍矿配额的调整，不完 全排除印尼政府极端收紧镍矿供给的黑天鹅事件。 智通财经APP获悉，镍业股早盘普涨，截至发稿，力勤资源(02245)涨8.33%，报29.64港元；新疆新鑫矿 业(03833)涨3.42%，报2.72港元；中伟新材(02579)涨3.4%，报38.28港元。 消息面上，据报道，印尼莫罗瓦利镍矿中心发生山体滑坡，导致一名工人遇难，并冲走了数台挖掘机、 推土机和倾卸卡车。方正证券认为，这将对印尼镍产出造成影响，考虑到印尼政府对镍价的力挺态度， 镍价有望在1.8万美元以上运行。 ...

2026年02月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，价格表现较坚挺 | 4 | | 工业硅：处于相对低估值区间 | 6 | | 多晶硅：情绪或提振盘面 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 25 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 2）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 3）SMM 报道印尼林业工作组披露了多家企业违规占用林地，面临的潜在罚款约 80.2 万亿印尼盾，部 分受影响的矿山正与政府部门进行积极协商 ...

2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 铜：不确定性增强，价格震荡 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 锌：区间震荡 | 5 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 7 | | 锡：关注关税影响 | 8 | | 铝：节后风偏偏强 | 9 | | 氧化铝：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 9 | | 铂：受白银走强提振 | 11 | | 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 | 11 | | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 13 | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏紧，盘面具备底部支撑 | 15 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂复产节奏 | 17 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格下跌 | 17 | | 铁矿石：需求预期转弱，震荡下行 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：节前交易情绪转弱，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：低到港低库存，震荡偏强 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the nickel market, due to continuous fermentation of the Indonesian nickel mine event, nickel prices are in high - level oscillations. Near the Spring Festival, prices are expected to fluctuate, and interval operations are recommended. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips [2][3][4] - For the stainless - steel market, influenced by the cost support from nickel and factors such as pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, prices are also expected to fluctuate near the Spring Festival. Interval operations are recommended, and buying on dips can be considered when the price drops substantially [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 139,960 yuan/ton and closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, a change of 1.79% from the previous trading day's closing. The trading volume was 433,838 (-84,787) lots, and the open interest was 70,629 (-5,811) lots. The main contract of Shanghai nickel rose with a reduction in positions and closed up. Driven by the significant reduction of the Indonesian nickel mine quota policy, the price rebounded strongly, but near the Spring Festival, funds and trading were cautious. On February 11, the Indonesian government planned to significantly cut the production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel. Its ore production quota this year dropped from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, a decrease of up to 71%, far exceeding market expectations [2] - **Nickel Mines**: The RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel mines in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons. With a large - scale mine's quota reduced by over 70%, the premium of Indonesian nickel mines continued to rise, driving up the nickel - iron quotation. The supply of nickel mines was tight, and the premium of some large - island Indonesian nickel mines rose to 32 - 35 US dollars/wet ton, strongly supporting the bottom price of nickel - iron. In January, the nickel - iron production in Indonesia decreased significantly due to raw - material shortages and pre - holiday centralized maintenance of some projects. It is expected that the production will continue to decline in February. Currently, the quotes of high - nickel pig iron from suppliers are mainly concentrated around 1,060 - 1,070 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), and the market quotes tend to rise [3] - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 149,800 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot market basically entered the vacation state, and spot transactions were suspended. The spot premiums and discounts of various refined - nickel brands mostly remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 750 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 (636) tons [3] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Stainless - Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 12, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 14,190 yuan/ton and closed at 13,970 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,890 (+3,307) lots, and the open interest was 100,602 (-4,171) lots. The main contract of stainless steel opened high and closed low, fluctuating and closing down. Supported by the cost of Shanghai nickel but suppressed by pre - holiday capital withdrawal and stagnant spot trading, its overall performance was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel. Near the Spring Festival, downstream processing enterprises basically stopped work, spot - market transactions were suspended, and traders gradually took holidays. Stainless - steel social inventories entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and supply pressure gradually emerged [4][5] - **Spot**: Spot trading was basically suspended, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 90 to 290 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 8.50 yuan/nickel point to 1,051.5 yuan/nickel point [5] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct interval operations. However, due to the continuous fermentation of nickel - ore supply interference, there is a certain support at the cost end. If the price drops significantly, consider buying on dips. Unilateral: mainly conduct interval operations; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5] Figures - There are 14 figures in the report, including LME closing price and spot price, Shanghai nickel main - contract closing price and SMM spot price, refined - nickel import profit and loss, Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts, LME nickel registered warehouse receipts, SMM nickel six - region total inventory, red - soil nickel - ore mainstream quotes, Chinese mainstream nickel - iron prices, Chinese mainstream imported chrome - ore prices, main - producing - area high - carbon ferrochrome prices, Foshan stainless - steel coil prices, 304/2B cold - rolled stainless - steel coil prices, 304 stainless - steel mainstream production profit margins, and stainless - steel total inventory. The data sources mainly include SMM and Mysteel [6][7][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota has reversed the market's expectation of a "continuous surplus" in 2026, leading to supply - tightening pricing and a sharp rise in nickel prices. The continuous upward trend in the nickel ore market also supports the increase in nickel prices. For stainless steel, it is a passive follow - up rise driven by cost, with weak fundamentals [1][2][3][4] - Near the Spring Festival holiday, both nickel and stainless steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices due to the continuous fermentation of nickel ore supply interference and cost - side support [3][4] Summary of Each Section Nickel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2603 opened at 133,350 yuan/ton and closed at 139,360 yuan/ton, a change of 4.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 518,625 (+237,189) lots, and the open interest was 76,440 (-3,802) lots. The main contract showed a strong unilateral upward trend, breaking through the key pressure level of 140,000. The reduction of Indonesia's nickel mining quota was the main reason for the price increase [1] - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota is 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, a significant reduction of about 30% compared to 3.79 billion tons in 2025. The reduction of a large - scale mine's quota by over 70% has led to an increase in nickel ore premiums. The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the bottom price of ferronickel is strongly supported. In January, the ferronickel production in Indonesia decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in February [1][2] - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 146,700 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was light, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands were mostly stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 52,027 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 285,750 (0) tons [2] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - **Futures**: On February 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel 2604 opened at 13,735 yuan/ton and closed at 14,145 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,583 (+50,518) lots, and the open interest was 100,625 (-4,171) lots. It showed an oscillating and slightly stronger trend, following the rebound of Shanghai nickel, but overall weaker than nickel, being a passive follow - up rise driven by cost [3] - **Spot**: Spot trading basically stopped, and market quotes remained stable. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market was 14,100 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 14,050 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 160 to 360 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 1,043.0 yuan/nickel point [4] Strategy - Near the Spring Festival holiday, it is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. If the price correction is large, consider buying at low prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant increase in nickel prices driven by supply constraints from major production regions, with a notable reduction in export quotas for nickel mines expected in 2026 [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel prices rose by 2.93%, closing at $18,065 per ton, with a significant increase of $515 per ton from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also saw a strong performance, with the main contract closing at 140,310 yuan per ton, up 3,150 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.3% increase [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand balance in the nickel market is tight ahead of the Spring Festival, with domestic smelters reducing output due to maintenance, leading to a low circulation of spot supply [4] - Demand from downstream enterprises is strong as they actively replenish inventory before the holiday, contributing to a significant recovery in spot trading [4] - The nickel price is supported by dual drivers from the industrial chain, including strong demand from the new energy sector and stable demand from stainless steel [4] Group 3 - Leading companies in the nickel industry are expected to report improved earnings due to the current rise in nickel prices, benefiting from their resource advantages and integrated production capacity [4] - The recent downward trend in nickel prices has been reversed, indicating a potential for further price increases, with recommendations to focus on quality stocks in the industry [4] - Today's nickel price is predicted to continue its strong upward trend, supported by tightening supply, replenishment of demand, and macroeconomic recovery [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the significant inflow of funds into the Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metal ETF, which has reached a new high in scale and is closely tracking the Zhongzheng Industrial Non-Ferrous Metal Theme Index [1] - The Tianhong Non-Ferrous Metal ETF has seen a net inflow of 779 million yuan over the last five trading days, with its latest scale reaching 1.873 billion yuan, marking a record high since its listing [1] - The ETF's top three industries, copper (34.43%), aluminum (21.82%), and rare earths (13.60%), account for nearly 70% of its holdings, with a notable emphasis on rare earths as a strategic resource amid ongoing US-China trade negotiations [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially announced a significant reduction in nickel ore production quotas for 2026, lowering the target range to 260-270 million tons, a decrease of approximately 30% from the 2025 target of 379 million tons [2] - The approved production quota for the Weda Bay Nickel mine has also been drastically cut from 42 million tons in 2025 to 12 million tons, indicating a shift in global nickel supply dynamics [2] - Tianfeng Securities notes that the recent stabilization and recovery of non-ferrous metal prices, combined with historical high production levels and increased fixed asset investment in the mining sector, suggest a continuous improvement in the industry's fundamentals and strong demand momentum [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: Indonesian news disturbances reappear, and attention should be paid to the risks of speculative attributes [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center has shifted upward [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: Favorable sentiment boosts the market, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday capital behavior [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The market volatility has decreased [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Some warehouse receipts have been cancelled, and attention should be paid to the impact of sentiment [2][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 139,360, with a change of 6,010 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,040, with a change of 300 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform; the Indonesian nickel miner association revealed that the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products will be revised; some mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal occupation of forest land; the KPPU reported monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park; the Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has approved the 2026 mining work plan and budget; a Swiss investment group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2605 contract was 150,260, with a change of 12,920 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, position, and various lithium - related product prices also showed corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 10, 2026, Gotion High - tech and BASF signed a strategic cooperation memorandum. Gotion High - tech has made progress in its solid - state battery project, and there have been multiple cooperation agreements in the new energy battery field [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,375, with a change of - 75 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the PS2605 contract was 48,950, with a change of - 420 compared to T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, position, price differences, and inventory also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: India's 2026 - 27 fiscal year federal budget shows that the new energy and renewable energy department will receive a 24% increase in total funding, with a 32% increase in photovoltaic industry funding [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1, and that of polysilicon is 0 [15].

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