Group 1 - The current market uptrend is supported by long-term capital inflows and strong performance from the insurance sector, with the A500 ETF seeing significant net inflows of nearly 100 billion RMB in December 2025, contributing to market buoyancy [4][8][12] - The "spring rally" is characterized by a seasonal pattern in the A-share market, typically occurring from late December to the first quarter, driven by macroeconomic policies, liquidity conditions, and the timing of financial reports [5][22][24] - Historical data from 2016 to 2025 indicates that the spring rally usually starts in late January and lasts about 30 trading days, with an average index increase of approximately 15% [24][25][31] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment for 2026 is expected to remain in a weak recovery phase, with structural support for technology-related sectors likely to continue, as policies emphasize growth and technological advancement [33][37][38] - The transition from old to new economic drivers is showing initial results, with several high-tech companies moving from policy-driven growth to performance validation, which is crucial for sustained investment confidence [40][41][45] - The market is likely to experience active trading with structural opportunities rather than a broad-based rally, as long-term capital and policy support create a conducive environment for thematic investments [48][49][50] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest prioritizing small-cap growth and innovation-driven sectors, as these areas are expected to benefit from improved liquidity and risk appetite [57][58] - The strategy should focus on short-term trend tracking and rapid rotation among themes, as the market dynamics are driven more by policy and industry expectations than by fundamental improvements [60][61] - The securities and financial technology sectors are expected to benefit from increased trading volumes and active leverage, while the insurance sector is positioned for long-term growth due to favorable market conditions and improved investment returns [63][64]

1月12日，两市股指强势拉升，AI应用方向持续爆发，GEO、AI医疗方向领涨。 平安证券分析称，A股"开门红"释放积极信号，市场情绪积极，资金面偏宽，短期指数或高位整固，回 调空间有限，后续在板块轮动中关注有业绩验证的高景气、以及具备政策支持确定性的方向：一是内外 需共振下景气向上的科技成长（TMT/创新药等）；二是受益于行业需求回暖和技术升级的先进制造 （新能源等）；三是受益于商品涨价预期的周期（有色金属/化工等）；四是红利资产仍具配置价值。 相关产品： （1）自由现金流ETF（159201）及其联接基金（023917/023918）：指数质地高，抗风险能力强，适合 底仓配置，满足长线投资配置需求。 （2）石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）：顶层设计引导行业从"量增"转向"质升"， 供需持续改善景气度有望持续上行。 （3）创业板新能源ETF华夏（159368）：涵盖新能源和新能源汽车产业，涉及电池、光伏等多个细分 领域。 （4）恒生互联网ETF（513330）：更聚焦软件应用/互联网传媒等港股市场稀缺标的，AMD（阿里巴 巴、腾讯控股、美团）合计权重占比近四成。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The spring market is reaching its peak, with investors optimistic about the strategy to expand domestic demand and the expectation of a strong start to the year [1] Market Performance - This week, the stock market saw a significant increase in trading volume, indicating that new capital is entering the market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded significantly, reaching a new high for this round of market activity, while the Shenzhen Component Index experienced an even larger rebound, also hitting a new high for the year [1] - The average daily trading volume for both markets exceeded 28 trillion yuan this week, a substantial increase compared to the previous week [1] Sector Highlights - Market hotspots this week were primarily concentrated in the military and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [1] - The ratio of the CSI 2000 to the CSI 300 (after normalization) was 1.42, continuing to rise since the end of 2025 [1] - Small-cap and technology stocks led the gains throughout the week [1] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index completed a small double bottom pattern and is currently challenging higher target levels [1] - The index experienced downward adjustments in late November and mid-December 2025, with the rebound process now underway, having surpassed the target level of the small double bottom pattern [1] - Future attention should be paid to the volume-price relationship, similar to the double bottom pattern [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has seen increased trading activity since the beginning of the year, with the Hang Seng Index's average daily turnover returning to the level of 250 billion HKD [1] - The Hong Kong thematic ETFs have attracted over 10 billion HKD in inflows since the start of the year, with several products reaching record high shares, indicating strong capital inflow into the Hong Kong technology sector, including the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF [1] - The listing of AI companies such as Zhipu Huazhang and MiniMax on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2026 marks a transition from technology validation to commercial value realization, particularly in advertising, gaming, and social sectors [1] Group 2 - The A-share technology sector is experiencing rising enthusiasm, which is positively impacting the performance of the Hong Kong technology sector [2] - Investment firms suggest focusing on new consumer sectors benefiting from the Federal Reserve's easing expectations and the recovery of the domestic economy, as well as technology sectors with growth potential amid the AI wave [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF reached a new scale of 10.117 billion HKD and a share count of 9.224 billion, both record highs since its inception, with significant net inflows observed recently [2] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF closely tracks the Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index, which reflects the performance of Hong Kong-listed companies related to technology themes, excluding pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and home appliances [3] - Major constituents of the index include leading AI companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, which together account for over 40% of the index weight, with Tencent alone representing nearly 15% [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the spring market has a continuous favorable time window for bullish strategies, with a significant increase in risk appetite. There are no major downside risks, only short-term adjustments after market performance is fully realized. Overall profit-making effects may continue to expand to higher levels, indicating that the short-term market performance is not yet fully realized [4][5]. - The report reaffirms the logic of the spring market, highlighting that there is ample liquidity and favorable conditions for bullish strategies. Key factors include ETF inflows, insurance sector performance, and expectations of foreign capital inflows, which have accelerated the inflow of retail investors and increased trading activity [4][5]. - The report identifies specific time windows in the spring that are conducive to market performance, including potential rebounds before the Lunar New Year in February, policy catalysts from the National People's Congress in March, and the anticipated visit of Trump to China in April, which could stabilize market expectations [4][5]. Group 2 - The report discusses the marginal trading funds and dominant market styles, noting that the net inflow of the CSI A500 ETF has plateaued. The expected incremental inflows are primarily from the insurance sector and foreign capital, while retail investor inflows and increased trading activity are contributing to faster growth in marginal trading funds [8]. - The report maintains that industry themes, such as commercial aerospace, robotics, and nuclear fusion, remain the strongest directions for profit-making effects. The report also highlights the high elasticity of venture capital and pre-IPO technology leaders, which are benefiting from mid-term bull market expectations [12]. - The report predicts that the second quarter of 2026 will still exhibit a volatile pattern, with technology and advanced manufacturing sectors likely to lead the market ahead of a full bull market in the second half of 2026 [12].

2026.01.08 高盛也表达了对中国市场的看好。该机构在最新披露的研报中称，对A股和H股维持超配评级，2026年 市场将由估值扩张推动的增长，转向由盈利增长驱动。"在当前盈利增长、估值水平和投资者仓位普遍 较低的背景下，中国股票的风险回报比具有吸引力。"高盛中国股票首席策略师刘劲津称。 瑞银称2025年中国市场"超预期发挥" 刚刚过去的2025年，A股主要指数悉数上涨。据Wind数据，2025年全年，上证指数累计上涨18.41%，深 证成指和创业板指分别上涨29.87%和49.57%。同期，A股IPO回暖、港股IPO火热。 "如果用一句话总结2025年中国资本市场的表现，那就是全面的超预期发挥。"胡知鸷说。 她分析称，多重因素将支持中国市场继续上行。首先，估值方面，目前MSCI中国指数市盈率约13倍， 仅略高于过去十年均值；其次，资金方面，投资者参与度仍低于历史高点；最后，从内外部环境来看， 全球经济格局的演变、"走出去"和"反内卷"政策的双重发力等，均对中国市场形成利好。 "更重要的是，中国企业的基本面在发生很大的结构性变化。"胡知鸷说，企业经营的逻辑逐渐从过去 的"规模优先"转向"练内功"，即更为重视 ...

2026 年 1 月 8 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】债市开年如何破局？——《央行观察》系列第十三篇 此前债市担忧的三大利空已部分消化，实际影响低于市场预期。但考虑到政策脉冲向 上，经济和股市迎来"开门红"，可能对债市情绪构成持续打压。有利因素也不可忽 视，政府债供给期限对利率走势无强解释力，且除 500 亿元国债买入信号外，央行有 意愿也有能力呵护流动性。债市整体前景并不悲观，策略上当前应重视配置，交易性 机会需耐心等待。风险提示：流动性对冲不及预期导致资金面意外波动，重大项目开 工不及预期影响经济开门红，海外突发黑天鹅事件。 12 月综合季节性特征、票据利率走势等因素，预计新增贷款在 0.8~1 万亿左右，贷 款增速落在 6.3%附近。社融层面，政府债发行进入尾声，对社融增长贡献度下降， 年末信贷季节性放量、贷款核销加大等对社融读数支撑作用显现，社融增速或落于 8.3%一线。货币方面，年末财政开支强度加大对一般存款形成回补，M2 增速或稳中 有增；春节错位叠加较高基数影响，M1 增速预计相对一般。 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 ...

Macro - The bond market has partially digested three major concerns, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations. However, upward policy impulses and a positive start for the economy and stock market may continue to pressure bond market sentiment. Favorable factors include the lack of strong explanatory power of government bond supply on interest rate trends and the central bank's willingness and ability to maintain liquidity. The overall outlook for the bond market is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on allocation while patiently waiting for trading opportunities [5]. Non-ferrous Metals - As of January 5, 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices reached 23,300 yuan/ton, the highest since March 2022. The copper-aluminum price ratio peaked at 4.5, the highest since 2003, indicating potential acceleration in aluminum replacing copper in certain sectors. Disruptions in overseas electrolytic aluminum supply and limited short-term expansion of new capacity are noted. The aluminum consumption in 2026 is expected to remain resilient due to the transformation of old and new driving forces and the rise of emerging fields. Policy expectations in both domestic and international markets are gradually solidifying the bottom for alumina prices [5]. Petrochemical - Future policies will focus on "anti-involution" and the elimination of outdated production capacity. The profitability of high-energy-consuming industries like calcium carbide and chlor-alkali is at a low point, and intensified competition on the cost side is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated facilities. This will help reduce industry supply and increase concentration, while also promoting the modernization and large-scale development of facilities, thereby enhancing the overall competitiveness of the calcium carbide and chlor-alkali industries [5]. Overseas TMT - Minimax, a leading general multimodal large model platform, has entered a phase of scaled commercialization as of 2025. The company's business model centers on self-developed general large models, achieving commercialization through API calls, model customization, solution output, and proprietary AI applications. The company is increasing R&D investment to enhance model training, inference efficiency, and multimodal capabilities, establishing technical and data barriers. Additionally, the open platform model lowers the entry threshold for downstream customers, increasing model usage and ecosystem stickiness [7]. - The company, Zhiyuan Huazhang, is a provider of general multimodal large models and AI native applications, focusing on commercializing model capabilities. Its commercialization path centers on model API calls, while also offering model customization, project solutions, and AI native application services. Revenue recognition is primarily linked to model usage volume, service fulfillment progress, and specific delivery situations. The prospectus indicates that the company is still in the commercialization development stage, with continuous growth in model usage expected as downstream application scenarios expand [7]. Internet Media - The film market is anticipated to transition from "single film support" to "multiple strong resonance" and structural repair. Although Q1 2026 faces high base pressure from the 2025 release of "Nezha 2," the overall market is expected to return to normalization and show moderate growth throughout the year, driven by the diversification of leading domestic films and the recovery of imported film supply [8]. Infrastructure - Hongrun Construction, a leading enterprise with technical experience and project management capabilities, has accumulated over 300 kilometers of shield tunneling in more than 20 cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo. The company is deeply integrated with core urban agglomerations under the "Yangtze River Delta Integration" strategy, with stable business in rail transit, municipal, and underground space. In recent years, the company has been advancing a strategy of "construction + new energy + technology," expanding from traditional infrastructure to areas such as photovoltaic energy storage, distributed energy, and intelligent construction, resulting in a more balanced growth structure [8].

Group 1 - The positive factors for stabilizing profits are increasing, including weak endogenous economic recovery, policy support, and potential improvements in PPI and real estate [4][11][18] - The PPI is expected to show marginal improvement due to seasonal demand and supply-demand balance driven by "anti-involution" policies [4][18][22] - The real estate market is experiencing a downtrend, but there are signs of potential stabilization, with some data showing slight improvements [4][28][29] Group 2 - The core factors influencing the height of the liquidity bull market are policies and stock market funds, with smaller bull markets focusing on profits while larger bull markets are driven by macro liquidity [4][11][18] - The capital market's institutional dividends can easily drive large-scale bull markets, and the "asset shortage" logic is expected to enhance the willingness to allocate funds to the stock market [4][18][22] - The regulatory policy adjustment rhythm will be crucial in the mid-term of the bull market, with significant changes in investor behavior expected as the market progresses [4][11][18] Group 3 - The style judgment indicates that small-cap growth stocks remain a trend, but there will be volatility in the mid-term of the bull market [4][29][31] - Long-term trends favor small-cap stocks, but there may be significant quarterly fluctuations influenced by new resident funds and growth-value style disturbances [4][31][32] - Growth style is likely to maintain a performance advantage over value style [4][31][32] Group 4 - Industry allocation suggests a foundation in finance, with technology as the main line and themes rotating actively [4][33][39] - Non-bank financials are gaining elasticity and have certain allocation value, while technology is expected to see a second wave of growth in the later stages of the bull market [4][33][39] - Key sectors to watch include power equipment, certain cyclical industries, and new consumption, focusing on improvements in ROE [4][39][42][44]

本报讯 （记者李昱丞）2026年1月6日，房地产服务和咨询顾问公司戴德梁行在深圳东方湾国际中心举办2025/2026年度深 圳房地产市场新闻发布会，主题为"见微知著，穿越周期的长期主义"。 张晓端认为，尽管写字楼市场整体需求增长动能偏弱，但也涌现出一些结构性机会。TMT行业贡献了全年最多的甲级写字 楼租赁需求，以租赁面积计占比约达总需求的三分之一。具体来看，AI产业的快速发展带动相关企业的租赁活跃度在2025年表 现亮眼。而在业务扩张的驱动下，新兴的消费电子类企业亦有升级办公场所的需求，正逐步成为租赁需求的主力来源。 （编辑 郭之宸） 戴德梁行研究院副院长、华南及华中区研究部主管及董事张晓端分析，激烈的竞争亦促使购物中心业主积极引入首店打造 差异化优势。"以旧换新"政策持续释放红利，叠加深圳科创产业的稳健增长与技术迭代，为数码电子及智能家电品牌的扩张提 供坚实支撑。影石创新、大疆、韶音等品牌各有数家店铺在年内相继开业，带动数码电子及智能家电品牌占所有业态的比重连 续两年上升至4.8%。 写字楼方面，2025年四个一线城市净吸纳量合计117.5万平方米，较2024年小幅下降3.2%，处于低位持稳的状态。其中， ...