交易台 – 高盛中国开盘 市场情绪 春节假期前，中国市场现金成交额降至 2025 年 12 月中旬以来的最低水平。 从科技板块向化工板块的轮动仍在持续，投资者押注上游材料将迎来更长周期的行情。 从成交额贡献来看，趋势一致：TMT板块的贡献从数月高位再次回落，而上游材料板块在回调后出现小幅反 弹。 从市场头条来看，新 AI 模型升级可 交易台 – 高盛中国开盘 市场情绪 春节假期前，中国市场现金成交额降至 2025 年 12 月中旬以来的最低水平。 从科技板块向化工板块的轮动仍在持续，投资者押注上游材料将迎来更长周期的行情。 从成交额贡献来看，趋势一致：TMT板块的贡献从数月高位再次回落，而上游材料板块在回调后出现小幅反 弹。 从市场头条来看，新 AI 模型升级可能会暂停板块轮动，市场焦点将转向 DeepSeek 的重大动作。 市场新闻 TMT/AI 中国智谱发布新 AI 模型，与 DeepSeek 的竞争骤然加剧 共封装光学（CPO）：中际旭创表示，云服务商绕过公司直接向上游激光设备厂商下单的传闻不实 DeepSeek 连夜升级，现已支持最大 100 万 token文本长度，数据库从 2024 年 7 月更新 ...

Stock Market - The A-share market experienced a slight increase, with Wind All A rising by 0.46% and a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, while the TMT and power equipment sectors led the gains [3][9] - The consumer sector continued to decline, with the CSI 1000 index up by 0.91%, CSI 500 index up by 1.17%, CSI 300 index up by 0.12%, and the SSE 50 index down by 0.28% [3][9] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the US-Iran situation and Japan's election results, are significant factors affecting the A-share market during the Spring Festival [3][10] - The correlation between A-share technology themes and US stocks has increased since November, indicating a global market linkage rather than isolated A-share sentiment [3][10] - The newly nominated Federal Reserve Chairman's monetary policy is more hawkish than market expectations, emphasizing a results-oriented approach rather than a predictive model [3][10] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures contract fell by 0.03%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts rose by 0.02%, and the 2-year contract remained stable [11] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 400 billion yuan 14-day and a 166.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 448 billion yuan [11] - The interbank market saw a decline in the weighted rates for DR001 and DR007, down by 0.79 basis points to 1.362% and 1.31 basis points to 1.5257%, respectively [11][5] - The bond market's upward momentum is limited due to ongoing fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth, maintaining a fluctuating interest rate environment [5][11] Precious Metals - London spot precious metals saw a significant decline, influenced by geopolitical shifts, particularly Russia's potential return to the dollar settlement system [12] - Concerns over market liquidity were heightened following a drop in US stocks, leading to increased volatility in precious metals [12] - The current trend in precious metals remains unclear, with recommendations for light positions during the holiday period, focusing more on gold performance [12]

Investment Strategy - The report indicates that the PPI year-on-year decline continues to narrow, and trading activity is expected to return after the holiday [1][3] - The A-share market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with a focus on the upcoming policy expectations as the market approaches the Two Sessions [3][32] Market Review - In the past five trading days (February 6 to February 12), major indices have risen, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.43% and the ChiNext Index up 2.08% [4] - The average daily trading volume has decreased to 2.13 trillion yuan, down 399 billion yuan from the previous five trading days [10][21] Inflation Trends - In January, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, while the PPI decreased by 1.4% year-on-year but increased by 0.4% month-on-month [27][30] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improvements in supply-demand structures in key sectors and rising international metal prices [27][30] Monetary Policy - The central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy report emphasizes the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and reasonable price recovery [30] - There is an expectation that short-term adjustments in reserve requirements and interest rates are unlikely, with future policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and stabilizing prices [30] Sector Analysis - The report highlights that in the recent trading period, sectors such as comprehensive, non-ferrous metals, and building materials have shown strong performance, while food and beverage, beauty care, and retail sectors have lagged [21][32] - Investment opportunities are identified in the TMT sector and robotics due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic computing power replacement [32] - The power equipment industry is also noted for potential investment opportunities driven by overseas photovoltaic expansion plans and significant investments from the State Grid [32]

Core Viewpoint - The strategy of "holding light positions during the holiday" is considered a prudent and historically reasonable approach in the current A-share market context, balancing the risks of market fluctuations before the holiday and the opportunities for participation in the post-holiday spring rally [1][8]. Market Performance Analysis - Over the past decade, the A-share market has shown mixed performance on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 6 times and falling 4 times [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a 2.89% increase from February 3 to February 11, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.43% during the same period [2]. - The A-share market is currently in a state of consolidation, with the four major indices showing varied performance on February 11, 2023 [2]. Historical Data Insights - Historical data indicates that the average increase for the Wind All A index in the 10 trading days following the Spring Festival is 3.3%, while the average decline in the 10 trading days before is -1.3% [4]. - The TMT sector has shown a high success rate in the post-holiday period, with a 100% success rate in the first 10 trading days after the Spring Festival [4][9]. Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - Historical trends suggest that market activity tends to contract before the holiday due to uncertainties and cash withdrawal demands, while funds typically flow back into the market post-holiday, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [5]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions, including government policies focusing on domestic demand and the potential for improved economic outlook, support a "hold positions" strategy during the holiday [6]. Sector Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from policy shifts and economic recovery, such as materials, financials, and technology, particularly in light of the upcoming political and economic events [8]. - The strategy includes maintaining positions in cyclical industries and sectors with improving profitability, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and construction materials [8].

Group 1 - The report highlights a high probability of style switching in A-shares around the Spring Festival, with a historical tendency for value and large-cap stocks to dominate before the festival, while growth and small-cap stocks tend to perform better afterward [1][8][23] - From 2010 to 2025, there were only two years (2020 and 2022) without a clear switch between growth and value styles, indicating a strong historical pattern of style rotation [8][18] - The report identifies that in 62.5% of the years analyzed, there was a significant switch from large-cap to small-cap stocks after the Spring Festival, suggesting a high likelihood of this trend continuing [1][8] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that the sectors leading in performance before the Spring Festival often do not repeat their success in the following month, indicating a high probability of sector rotation [2][8] - The report notes that in years where value stocks led after the Spring Festival (2011, 2016, 2021), there were common factors such as liquidity tightening or unexpected risk events that suppressed growth stocks [2][23] - The macro environment in 2015 and 2019, characterized by ample liquidity and weak fundamentals, is compared to the upcoming 2026 Spring Festival, suggesting potential for similar market dynamics [2][3] Group 3 - The report assesses that the current market style is shifting towards value before the 2026 Spring Festival, with technology and growth stocks receding [3][4] - It suggests that if the value style continues post-festival, it will be driven by expectations of domestic economic recovery and policy support, although there are concerns regarding inflation metrics [3][4] - The analysis indicates that the performance of small-cap stocks is expected to rebound significantly after the Spring Festival, driven by liquidity recovery and risk appetite [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO) experienced an over 18% increase in pre-market trading following the announcement of preliminary fiscal Q3 '26 revenue, indicating strong market momentum and investor interest [1]. Company Summary - Credo Technology Group reported preliminary fiscal Q3 '26 revenue, which has positively impacted its stock performance [1]. Market Context - The company operates within the technology sector, which has seen significant fluctuations and opportunities, particularly influenced by trends such as the AI boom [1].

来源：智通财经网 2月10日，港交所(00388)发布2025年香港股权资本市场回顾。2025年，香港资本市场表现亮眼，许多上 市股份表现优秀、成交一再创新高，港股通交投活跃。根据Dealogic的数据，2025年香港股权资本市场 的集资额达1,030亿美元，同比升164%。其中，首次公开招股集资规模达374亿美元，同比增长231%； 上市后再融资规模达660亿美元，同比升136%。与此同时，二级市场亦相当活跃：现货市场平均每日成 交额同比升89.5%，港股通亦非常活跃。 两大增长动能 香港资本市场助力各不同发展阶段的发行人实现融资，年内新股发行及再融资活动均大幅增长。 2025年底，香港重登全球新股集资中心榜首，119家新上市公司集资共374亿美元，当中包括全球五大新 股的其中两只。全年集资总额更是香港2021年以来的新高，超过前三年总和。 根据Dealogic及彭博的数据，新股上市后表现强劲，集资额1亿美元或以上的新股，上市首日股价平均 上升23.8%，上市后一个月平均涨幅达30.7%，是近20年来的最佳成绩。 数据亦显示，香港上市后再融资额增至660亿美元，创下2021年以来的最高纪录。其中200亿美元 ...

首先，利空信息消化后，市场超跌反弹 。过去一周全球市场因美元流动性紧缩预期而产生一定震荡，核心驱动因素是特朗普宣布提名具有鹰派倾向 的凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任美联储主席。随着上周五晚上，美股科技股的普遍反弹以及道指创出新高，全球风险偏好有所恢复。周一日韩股市出现 大幅反弹，A股和港股亦跟随上涨，实现了超跌反弹。总体来看，国内经济数据和上市公司业绩披露暂时处于空窗期，又逢春季假期临近，市场更多由外 部信息驱动，呈现来回拉锯的特点。 其次，周一两市大幅反弹，量能略增。 沪指高开高走，最终收盘于全天高点附近，收盘回到了全部短期均线上方。深圳成指反弹幅度更大，也已收 复了短期均线。两市成交金额约2.2万亿元，较上周五小幅放量。当天市场热点主要集中在TMT等科技类行业。投资风格方面，中小盘和科技股涨幅更 大。 从运行节奏看，沪指连续反弹后，进入上下震荡阶段。 沪指于12月中下旬启动上行趋势，1 月中旬创出新高后，开始进入震荡阶段。当前阶段的主要 市场特征是板块分化和行业快速轮动，伴随着成交量的下降。临近春节长假，市场交投将区域清淡，预计难以明显突破当前的震荡箱体。 风险提示： 国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The acquisition of brands and channel integration is accelerating, making consumer goods the hottest industry, surpassing TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [2][13] - In 2025, the total overseas mergers and acquisitions (M&A) announced by Chinese companies reached $43.6 billion, a nearly 40% year-on-year increase, with large transactions over $1 billion rising from 7 to 13 [3][10] - The consumer goods sector saw significant growth, with the largest two transactions totaling $6.7 billion, driving the industry to grow over three times year-on-year [13] Group 2: Regional Analysis - Asia and Europe are the most popular destinations for M&A, each accounting for approximately 30% of the total; North America and Latin America also recorded significant growth in transaction amounts [16][18] - In 2025, Asian M&A amounted to $15.7 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase, while European M&A reached $13.8 billion, with increased momentum in the second half of the year [18] - North American M&A surged nearly threefold to $6.4 billion, with its share rising from 5% in 2024 to 15% in 2025 [18] Group 3: Direct Investment and Engineering Contracts - In 2025, China's total foreign direct investment (FDI) reached $174.4 billion, a 7.1% year-on-year increase, with non-financial FDI at $145.7 billion, growing by 1.3% [3][8] - The new contracts signed for overseas engineering projects by Chinese companies reached $289.2 billion, an 8.2% increase year-on-year, with "Belt and Road" contracts at $258 billion, up 10.8% [17] - The completed operating revenue for overseas engineering projects was $178.8 billion, a 7.7% increase, with "Belt and Road" projects contributing $152.6 billion, a 9.3% increase [17] Group 4: Future Outlook - In 2026, Chinese companies are expected to continue high-quality overseas expansion, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing investment structures [6][19] - The global economic growth is projected at 3.1%, with developed economies facing structural challenges while emerging markets maintain steady growth [19] - Key investment areas are anticipated to include new energy equipment, automotive supply chains, critical minerals, AI applications, and financial services [19][21]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a mixed trend, with the Hang Seng Index opening at 26,982.49 points, up 1.6%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.9% [1] - Notable stock performances include Hua Hong Semiconductor surging over 4%, Tencent Music, Xpeng Motors, Baidu, and Bilibili each increasing by over 3%, while SMIC and Alibaba rose nearly 3% [1] - Southbound funds have been actively buying, with net purchases exceeding HKD 100 billion for three consecutive trading days, totaling over HKD 500 billion [1] Group 2 - Recent market adjustments in Hong Kong are attributed to increased risk aversion due to the hawkish stance of Fed nominee Walsh, rather than fundamental policy changes [2] - Analysts suggest focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and healthy cash flows, particularly those positioned favorably in the AI technology wave, for long-term investments [2] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index is currently at a low point, with a PE ratio of 12 times, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has a PE of 25 times, at the 19.1% historical percentile [1][2] Group 3 - The latest scale of the Hang Seng Tech ETF is HKD 12.622 billion, with a record high of 19.877 billion shares [3] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past six days, with a peak single-day inflow of HKD 274 million, totaling HKD 738 million [3] - The ETF tracks a low valuation for the Hang Seng Tech Index, with a PB ratio of 2.89 times, below the index's valuation for over 88.26% of the past year [3]