Core Insights - The report indicates that the manufacturing sector is expected to have the highest earnings growth, while the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector is anticipated to show the most significant improvement in performance [2] - The light industry, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financial sectors are projected to have high earnings growth in their mid-year reports, whereas the construction materials, electronics, and telecommunications sectors are expected to show substantial performance improvements [2] Industry Research - The autonomous logistics vehicle market is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the complete commercialization of autonomous logistics vehicles, which are set to reshape urban delivery ecosystems [6] - The insurance sector is likely to benefit from the new long-cycle assessment requirements, which will allow insurance companies to invest more aggressively in the market by smoothing out short-term performance fluctuations [7] - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing a rebound in oil prices due to increased demand and OPEC+ production adjustments, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices rising by 3.1% and 3.4% respectively [9] - The basic chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in organic silicon prices following the closure of a major production facility by Dow Chemical, which will reduce supply in Europe [10] - The livestock sector is showing signs of recovery with improved pig prices and a long-term upward trend in profitability expected [11] - The copper industry is facing potential supply pressures due to changes in U.S. tariffs and inventory flows, with investment recommendations focusing on several key companies [12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain stable supply and demand dynamics, with a positive outlook for coal prices during the summer peak [13] Company Research - China State Construction Engineering Corporation is highlighted for its competitive dividend yield compared to banks, with stable earnings growth and a strong order book, maintaining a "buy" rating [14] - TCL Technology is recognized for its improving display business profits, although its solar energy segment remains under pressure, leading to adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [15] - Sunny Optical Technology is expected to benefit from rising optical specifications and increased automotive lens shipments, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being raised [16][17] - Miao Ke Lan Duo is projected to achieve significant profit growth in the first half of 2025, driven by favorable cheese consumption trends, maintaining an "overweight" rating [18]

廖市无双：轻舟已过 3500，后市可为空间几何？ 20250613 摘要 市场短期阻力与长期潜力：上证指数在 3,555 点附近面临技术阻力，但 多头均线排列和强劲的市场情绪预示着未来仍有上行潜力，或在四季度 前挑战 3,674 点。 筹码结构分析：天朗 50 筹码结构显示，筹码密集区位于 3,350 点附近， 当前点位偏离平均成本，短期存在调整压力，但密集筹码支撑市场迅速 反弹。 板块轮动与风格变化：金融与科技板块齐飞，顺周期板块如房地产和基 建开始走强。金融和成长风格表现突出，消费和稳定风格出现触底迹象， 主题投资成为超额收益的关键。 银行板块投资逻辑：银行板块受益于资产荒和稳定资金流入，周期性上 涨仍有空间，建议逢低配置，但需警惕估值过高或快速上涨的情况。 券商板块投资策略：券商板块反弹显著，但部分个股仍有上涨空间。建 议进行高低切换，将涨幅较大的换成前期涨幅较小的券商股票，优化投 资组合。 Q&A 当前市场走势如何，未来可能会出现哪些变化？ 自 6 月 24 日市场选择向上以来，至 7 月 11 日市场表现强劲。我们在 6 月 24 日翻多，并预测市场短期内会上涨。实际情况显示，市场在 7 月 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The trend of a weakening US dollar is reshaping the pricing logic of Chinese assets, driven by domestic structural reforms and the potential reallocation of over 100 trillion yuan in household wealth, marking a shift from "non-US opportunities" to "real Chinese opportunities" [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Revaluation Dynamics - The revaluation of Chinese assets is primarily driven by domestic fundamentals rather than external monetary conditions, with the logic chain of "dollar depreciation - yuan appreciation - Chinese asset revaluation" becoming increasingly evident [2]. - The significant pool of over 150 trillion yuan in household deposits and the potential for reallocating funds from the real estate sector provide intrinsic momentum for the revaluation of Chinese assets [2]. Group 2: Structural Reforms and Efficiency Improvements - Current reforms are focusing on "asset restructuring and efficiency enhancement," targeting underutilized land, housing, private manufacturing capacity, and financial capital to inject long-term stability into the capital market [3]. - The inclusion of "good housing" in urban renewal initiatives and the doubling of merger and acquisition cases, particularly in the TMT and manufacturing sectors, are expected to reshape asset returns through efficiency improvements [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities Framework - An asset allocation framework transitioning from "non-US" to "Chinese opportunities" includes: gold and silver, constrained supply physical assets like copper and aluminum, high-credit non-US sovereign debt, quality growth stocks in developed and emerging markets, and stable high-dividend assets [4]. - Gold is viewed as a hedge against dollar depreciation, with domestic gold stocks beginning to correct and showing clear upside potential [4]. Group 4: Global Market Dynamics and Competitive Edge - The focus has shifted from demand increment logic to certainty premium logic for quality overseas enterprises, emphasizing multi-dimensional competitiveness in global markets [5]. - Leading companies in sectors like electric equipment, machinery, and automotive have decoupled from real estate cycles and are engaging in emerging technology fields, demonstrating significant profit growth [5]. Group 5: TIRD Platform and Market Insights - The TianHong Investment Research Decision (TIRD) platform utilizes digital and intelligent methods to reshape the investment system, covering macro data, asset allocation, position management, risk warning, and industry observation [6]. - The TIRD platform has successfully identified market opportunities, such as the "924 add-on window" and the first signal for increasing positions in growth stocks in May, reflecting its ability to capture changes in risk margins [7].

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基 础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有据。 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 六亿居士 来源：雪球 最近几个月 ， 后台的留言开始又变得有些纠结 。 有人问 ： " 沪深300还能不能买 ？ 涨过一波了是不是有点危险 ？ " 也有人说 ： " 中证红利是 不是估值相对低一点 ？ 还能加点么 ？ " 更有不少朋友感叹 ： " 你一直说别怕没有机会 ， 但到底啥时候才是机会 ？ 一直不低估啊 ！ " 如果你此刻账户大致处于盈亏相抵 、 不温不火的状态 ， 不要觉得只有你这样 。 我想说 ： 你所处的位置 ， 正是市场中最常见 ， 也往往是最漫长的阶段 —— 估值正常期 ， 且 市场处于结构性轮动状态 。 和低估期需要 " 敢买 " 、 高估期需要 " 敢卖 " 不同 ， 估值正常期的难点在于 ： 你既没太大 诱因去加仓 ， 也没明显理由清仓止盈 ； 账户半浮盈 、 半浮亏 ， 每天看盘都像白看 ， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159262) has seen a 1.10% increase, with notable gains from companies like SenseTime-W and Oriental Selection exceeding 5% [1] - The Hang Seng Stock Connect Technology Index (HSSCITI) has outperformed other indices, rising over 1% during trading [1] - The trading volume for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF reached 2.62 billion, indicating active market participation [1] Group 2 - The HSSCITI's top ten weighted stocks account for 75.01%, with major players like Kuaishou-W and SMIC leading the pack [2] - The concentration of AI leaders such as Xiaomi, Alibaba, and Tencent exceeds 30% within the top-weighted stocks, highlighting a strong focus on technology [2] - The Hong Kong technology sector is currently benefiting from the AI innovation wave, with historical trends suggesting potential for significant returns [2] Group 3 - Long-term trends indicate a rising premium for China's technology sector, with notable excess returns since 2005 [3] - The technology sector has shown high elasticity and sustainability during various market cycles [3] - New industries such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics are gaining policy support, indicating a shift towards localization in core technology sectors [3] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF is positioned to capitalize on the "pure technology revolution" opportunities presented by the AI era [4]

A 股收盘站上 3500 点整数关，市场风险偏好继续回升。周四 A 股继续震荡攀升，收盘站上 3500 点整数关，上证指数已经正式突破 2024 年 11 月 8 日的高点。并且本周的上涨是在美国宣布对 14 个国 家调整关税率后做出的反映，显示市场对关税事件的影响已经形成脱敏，对关税所带来的影响也已经有 充分预期。近期市场对于贸易冲突的担忧情绪进一步缓解，7 月政策窗口期愈来愈近，预计市场将在震 荡中继续维持缓慢盘升的格局。 风险提示：全球地缘格局出现超预期局面，关税预期的反复摇摆，关税冲击的后续影响，美联储降 息延后，海外经济衰退超预期，国内经济复苏不及预期，政策执行不及预期等。 后市展望：将有可能突破 2024 年 10 月以来的震荡区间。当前 A 股持续上行的两大支撑因素是 1） 低利率环境依然维持，且美联储表态降息有提前的可能性；2）进入 6 月下旬以来市场风险偏好回升， 诸如非银金融、传媒、军工等高风险特征板块开始上涨正是风险偏好回升的表现。6 月下旬以来，市场 开始展望增量政策，若增量政策及时有效推出落地，则 A 股将有可能迎来突破 2024 年 10 月以来横盘 震荡格局的时间窗口。 热点板块 ...

截至2025年7月10日 09:57，港股通科技ETF(159262)上涨0.10%，成分股英诺赛科涨近6%，比亚迪电 子、舜宇光学科技涨近5%，心动公司、瑞声科技跟涨。流动性方面，港股通科技ETF盘中换手1.88%， 成交2445.56万元。拉长时间看，截至7月9日，港股通科技ETF近1周日均成交3.15亿元。 指数表现方面，恒生港股通科技主题指数（「HSSCITI」）盘中一度上涨0.49%，领跑港股通互联网、 港股通科技、恒生科技等指数，同类表现最好。 规模方面，港股通科技ETF最新规模达12.95亿元。 从估值层面来看，港股通科技ETF跟踪的恒生港股通科技主题指数最新市盈率（PE-TTM）仅21.08倍， 处于近1年0.75%的分位，即估值低于近1年99.25%以上的时间，处于历史低位。 港股通科技ETF紧密跟踪恒生港股通科技主题指数，恒生港股通科技主题指数（「HSSCITI」）旨在反 映能通过港股通买卖，业务与科技主题相关的香港上市公司之表现。指数剔除了医药、汽车和家电，聚 焦TMT行业，科技属性更加纯正。 数据显示，截至2025年7月8日，恒生港股通科技主题指数(HSSCITI)前十大权重股分别为快 ...

Group 1 - The core event was the simultaneous listing of five mainland companies and one ETF on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant moment for the market [1][2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong has shown resilience and vitality, with over 200 companies currently in the IPO queue, indicating a potential for more simultaneous listings in the future [1][3] - In the first half of the year, Hong Kong completed 42 IPOs, raising over HKD 107 billion, a 22% increase compared to the entire year of 2024, making it the leading global market for IPOs [3][4] Group 2 - The active performance of the IPO market is attributed to ongoing reforms by regulatory bodies and improved valuations and liquidity in the Hong Kong market [4] - Deloitte forecasts that by 2025, there will be 80 new listings in Hong Kong, raising HKD 200 billion, significantly higher than previous estimates [4] - Southbound capital has been a positive factor for liquidity in the Hong Kong market, with net inflows reaching HKD 211.26 billion in just five trading days in July [4][5] Group 3 - The secondary market's activity is a key driver for attracting companies to list in Hong Kong, although there has been a recent slowdown in the upward momentum of major indices [6] - Analysts suggest focusing on technology, consumer, and high-dividend opportunities in the Hong Kong market, with a particular emphasis on the pharmaceutical and discretionary consumption sectors [6]

策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.07.09） 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL 日内观点：短债窄幅震荡，长债偏强 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1 参考策略：IM2507多单持有 核心逻辑： 1.支持政策持续落地，预期加码兑现。随着基本面回归偏弱现实，央行等六部门 联合发布《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，国家发展改革委表示下达今 年第三批消费品以旧换新资金。国常会进一步强化企业科技创新主体地位，上海市第 十二届市委七次全会指出要"加强国家战略科技力量建设、前沿技术和颠覆性技术布局 培育，加快发展壮大集成电路、生物医药、人工智能三大先导产业，加强重点领域科 技攻关"等，科创主题产业政策持续发力，叠加"反内卷"政策深化，大幅提振权益市 场，宽基指数尤其是中证500指数或中证1000指数继续保持相对强势。 2 .海外关税风险继续升温，美国总统特朗普表示将从 8月 1日起分别对来自日 本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税，同时威胁对金砖国家加征 新关税，情绪上继续扰动风险资产情绪。 3.技 ...

上半年，A股券商板块股价表现平平，申万证券行业指数整体下跌约3%，多数券商横盘震荡，仅湘财股份等涉及 重组事项的公司涨幅较大。不过，机构普遍看好券商半年报业绩。 从市场交易数据看，上半年沪深两市日均成交13610亿元，同比增长约60%；两融余额达18505亿元，同比增长 25%；A股新开户数约1260万户，同比增长32.77%。开源证券预计，上市券商半年报业绩将高速增长。当前券商 板块估值和机构持仓处于低位，建议关注零售、海外业务及金融科技优势突出的券商。东吴证券也表示，受益于 市场回暖和政策友好，券商多项业务将受益，期待半年报有较好表现，推荐优质龙头券商。 【环球网财经综合报道】7月，随着上市公司陆续披露业绩预告，A股半年报行情正式拉开帷幕。多家券商发布前 瞻报告，认为今年半年报行情仍以结构性机会为主，金融与非金融领域均有亮点。 上半年，A股大消费板块内部分化明显。白酒、调味品等餐饮相关板块走势低迷，申万白酒指数半年跌幅超 10%；家电板块受以旧换新政策和外部因素影响，股价宽幅震荡；新消费产业则加速发展，IP潮玩、古法金饰等 题材大幅走强。 机构认为，消费行业配置重点在于持续推出新品和布局新渠道的公司。国泰 ...