Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The significant decline in the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on the soybean meal market [1]. - The soybean No.1 market shows a rebound and oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the overall atmosphere of the soybean market [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3970 yuan/ton during the day session, up 9 yuan (+0.23%), and 3968 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3050 yuan/ton during the day session, down 10 yuan (-0.33%), and 3056 yuan/ton during the night session, unchanged (+0.00%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1040 cents/bushel, down 13 cents (-1.23%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.3 dollars/short ton, down 5.4 dollars (-1.87%) [1]. - **Spot Basis**: In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal is M2601 + 40/+50/+80, with some adjustments compared to the previous day; in East China, it is relatively stable; in South China, there are also various basis levels and adjustments [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.45 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 11.4 million tons two days ago; the inventory was 101.49 million tons per week, compared with 98.55 million tons two weeks ago [1]. Macro and Industry News - On September 2, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, hitting the lowest level in a week and a half. The reasons include China's lack of interest in US new-season soybeans and improved rainfall in the Midwest, which is beneficial for the growth of late-sown crops [3]. - The US - China trade negotiation has made limited progress recently, and China's hosting of a non - Western leaders' summit has further dampened the optimistic sentiment for the demand of new - crop soybeans [3]. - The increased rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may improve the growth of late - stage crops and strengthen the expectation of a bumper harvest, putting downward pressure on soybean prices [3]. - As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, down from 69% a week ago and the same as last year's 65%. Analysts had expected 68% before the report [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is +1, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts in the day session on the report day [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is neutral [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is cautiously bearish [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market currently has increasing inventory and ample supply, and the price has declined due to lower import costs. Future price trends depend on Sino - US trade policy negotiations [2] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is expected to increase with the approaching new grain listing, while demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the yield of new - season corn [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3050 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.13%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2500 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2990 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2950 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: In June, the US used 1.045 billion pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, up 1.95% from May. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast remains at 178.2 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2200 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.32%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2505 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.20%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3] - Market news: In Ukraine, due to drought, the corn yield in the southern part of Poltava decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the northern part had good growth. The far - month FOB price of new - crop corn in the Black Sea was about 214 US dollars/ton, up 8% year - on - year. Australia is expected to produce 33.8 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 season, up 10.5% from the previous forecast [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal Market - Supply: Domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing and there is room for further growth due to high future soybean arrivals [2] - Price: The price has declined due to lower import costs caused by positive Sino - US negotiation expectations and weaker Brazilian premiums [2] 3.2.2 Corn Market - Supply: New grain in North China and Northeast China is about to be listed, increasing the supply. Traders have limited remaining grain [4] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises have low inventory and demand, and wheat substitution is common [4] 3.3 Strategies - The strategy for the soybean meal market is neutral [3] - The strategy for the corn market is cautiously bearish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and potential arbitrage opportunities in the agricultural and energy sectors. It also presents data on international and domestic supply - demand dynamics and macro - economic indicators both internationally and domestically [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of multiple futures contracts, such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, and US soybeans, are presented. Currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index and various currency pairs, are also provided [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are reported. Additionally, CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are given [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions - The future weather outlook (September 7 - 11) for major US soybean - producing states shows mostly lower - than - normal temperatures and uneven precipitation. The possible return of La Niña from September may affect global weather patterns and crop production, with a 55% chance of equatorial Pacific sea - surface temperatures dropping to La Niña levels from September to November [3][5]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 2.65% month - on - month, while its export volume showed an increase. Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month, while soybean oil imports decreased by 28%. EU imports of palm oil, soybeans, and other agricultural products in the 2025/26 season decreased compared to the previous year. Ukraine has started winter sowing and imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed. The Baltic Dry Index dropped to a more than one - week low [7][8][10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On September 2, the total trading volume of domestic oils increased significantly. The开机 rate of domestic oil mills decreased, and the port inventory of soybean oil increased. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both increased slightly [13][14]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 90.5%. US manufacturing PMI and construction spending data were released. Argentina's finance ministry will intervene in the foreign exchange market. Eurozone CPI data for August was announced [16]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On September 2, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased, and the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net capital withdrawal. The central bank also announced the liquidity injection of various tools in August [18]. 3.5 Fund Flows - On September 2, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 20.739 billion yuan, with 1.087 billion yuan in commodity futures (including a net outflow of 757 million yuan in agricultural product futures, an inflow of 45 million yuan in chemical futures, an outflow of 472 million yuan in black - series futures, and an inflow of 2.271 billion yuan in metal futures) and 19.651 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The soybean oil market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The long - term view for soybean oil is bullish, but short - term increases may be tortuous. For Y2601, consider buying on dips around 8300 - 8310, with pressure at 8550 - 8600 yuan/ton [1]. - China's temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed may reduce imports. The price of rapeseed oil is expected to be volatile in the short term, with support at 9580 - 9600 and pressure at 9998 - 10333 [1]. - Palm oil prices are under pressure from the decline in US soybean oil prices but are supported by factors such as poor production in Malaysia, good exports, and strong crude oil prices. Consider buying on dips with light positions, with support at 9200 - 9240 and pressure at 9736 - 9998 [2]. - The price of soybean meal is affected by the decline of US soybeans and weak supply. There is still support in the short - term, and the expectation of tight supply in the fourth quarter remains. Consider buying on dips, with support at 2980 - 3000 and pressure at 3180 - 3200 [2]. - The prices of corn and corn starch are under pressure from the fundamentals. Suggest reducing short positions on dips. For the 11 - contract of corn, the support is at 2100 - 2120, and the pressure is at 2240 - 2250; for the 11 - contract of corn starch, the support is at 2400 - 2420, and the pressure is at 2580 - 2590 [4]. - The price of soybean No.1 is affected by the supply increase from new beans and state - reserve auctions. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and consider shorting on rebounds. The 11 - contract has a pressure at 4145 - 4150 and support at 3850 - 3900 [5]. - The new season of peanuts has an expected increase in production and a decrease in cost. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term. The 11 - contract has support at 7500 - 7510 and pressure at 8020 - 8162 [6]. - The price of live pigs has rebounded from the low level. Consider holding long positions in the 11 - contract, and for the 2601 contract, wait for the confirmation of capacity reduction and then consider buying on dips [7]. - The price of eggs has stopped falling and rebounded. It is not recommended to short aggressively. Aggressive investors can consider buying on dips in the 2511 contract at the cash cost of farmers [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil 01 is expected to be volatile and bullish, consider buying on stabilization; rapeseed oil 01 is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see; palm oil 01 is expected to be volatile, consider buying on dips with light positions [11]. - **Proteins**: Soybean meal 01 is expected to be volatile and bullish, consider buying on stabilization; rapeseed meal 01 is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Energy and By - products**: Corn 11 and starch 11 are expected to be volatile at low levels, suggest reducing short positions on dips [11]. - **Livestock Farming**: Live pigs 11 are expected to rebound and be volatile, consider holding long positions; eggs 10 are expected to find the bottom while being volatile, consider buying on dips [11]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - **Inter - period Arbitrage**: For most varieties, it is recommended to wait and see, except for soybean meal 3 - 5 which is recommended for positive arbitrage, and live pigs 1 - 3 and eggs 10 - 1 are recommended for positive arbitrage on dips [12][13]. - **Inter - commodity Arbitrage**: For some varieties such as 01 soybean oil - palm oil, it is recommended for bearish operations; for 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, it is recommended for bullish operations; for 01 soybean meal - rapeseed meal, it is expected to be volatile at low levels [13]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties such as oils, fats, proteins, energy, and livestock farming products [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipment periods [16][17]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory and startup rates of various oils and fats and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans at ports, the inventory of soybean meal at oil mills, etc [18][19]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [19]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data of corn and corn starch, including consumption, inventory, startup rate, etc., are presented [20]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, consumption, and inventory data, are provided [21][22][23][24][25]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming End (Live Pigs, Eggs)**: The closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, as well as the spot prices of live pigs, piglets, eggs, and culled chickens, are presented [26][27][29][30][32][34]. - **Oils and Fats and Oilseeds**: - **Palm Oil**: The production, export, inventory, and price spread data of Malaysian palm oil are presented [36][38][40][44]. - **Soybean Oil**: The data of US soybean crushing, soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean oil mill startup rate, and inventory are presented [46][48]. - **Peanuts**: The data of peanut arrival, shipment, pressing profit, and inventory are presented [51][53]. - **Feed End**: - **Corn**: The closing price, spot price, inventory, and import data of corn are presented [55][58]. - **Corn Starch**: The closing price, spot price, startup rate, and inventory data of corn starch are presented [59][60]. - **Rapeseed**: The spot price, basis, inventory, and pressing profit data of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are presented [61][63][65][67][69]. - **Soybean Meal**: The growth rate, inventory, basis, and price spread data of US soybeans are presented [74][76][78][80][82][84]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats - The historical volatility data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio data of corn options are presented [88][89]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils and Fats - The warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are presented [92][93][94][95]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates mixed movements in the futures prices of corn, wheat, and soybeans, with corn prices rising while wheat and soybean prices fell [1] - The most active December corn contract closed at $4.23 per bushel, up 2.75 cents (0.65%) from the previous trading day; the December wheat contract closed at $5.28 per bushel, down 6 cents (1.12%); and the November soybean contract closed at $10.41 per bushel, down 13.5 cents (1.28%) [1] - Strong export demand for corn is noted, while soybean risk premiums have decreased, and the wheat market is adjusting to the potential for large production in the Southern Hemisphere [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that for the week ending August 28, corn export inspections totaled 55 million bushels, up from 53 million the previous week and 38 million year-on-year; soybean inspections totaled 17 million bushels, up from 14 million; while wheat inspections were 29 million bushels, down from 37 million but up from 22 million year-on-year [2] - Cumulative export inspections for the current crop year show corn at 2.636 billion bushels (up 29% year-on-year), soybeans at 1.828 billion bushels (up 11%), and wheat at 244 million bushels (up 15%) [2] - Australia's wheat production forecast has been raised by 2.8 million tons to 33.8 million tons, indicating potential for Australia to become a major exporter by 2026; barley production has also been increased to 14.5 million tons, the second-highest on record [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw a majority of its agricultural futures contracts close lower on September 2, with soybean futures dropping by 1.38% to 1040.00 cents per bushel, while corn futures increased by 0.65% to 423.00 cents per bushel, and wheat futures fell by 1.08% to 528.50 cents per bushel [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures experienced a decline of 1.38% [1] - Corn futures showed a slight increase of 0.65% [1] - Wheat futures fell by 1.08% [1]

每经AI快讯，当地时间9月2日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，原糖期货跌 1.41%报16.14美分/磅，棉花期货跌0.74%报66.05美分/磅，可可期货跌1.71%报7578.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货跌3.30%报373.35美分/磅。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Soybean strategy: Neutral [3] - Peanut strategy: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures stopped falling and rebounded, with a divergence between the domestic and imported soybean markets. Policy - driven reserve soybean sales keep the supply abundant, and the demand is stable. The market focuses on international economic and trade relations and policy signals [2]. - The peanut futures fluctuated strongly. With the end of the spring peanut supply peak and less old - crop inventory, rain has affected peanut supply, and some oil mills' trial purchases sent positive signals [3]. Market Analysis - Soybean Futures - The closing price of the Douyi 2511 contract was 3965.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton or +0.51% from the previous day [1]. Spot - The edible bean spot basis was A11 + 255, down 40 with a 32.14% change from the previous day. The prices in Northeast China were stable but trading was quiet. New bean prices were not optimistic due to continuous state - reserve auctions [1]. Market Situation - Policy promotes reserve soybean sales, keeping supply abundant. Demand runs stably. The market is tracking international economic and trade negotiations, and policy is the key factor affecting the market [2]. Market Analysis - Peanut Futures - The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7830.00 yuan/ton, up 46.00 yuan/ton or +0.59% from the previous day [3]. Spot - The average peanut spot price was 8450.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan/ton or +0.48% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK10 + 270.00, down 46.00 with a - 14.56% change. The national average price of common peanuts was stable at 4.21 yuan/jin, and prices in some areas rose due to rain [3]. Market Situation - The spring peanut supply peak is over, and old - crop inventory is low. Rain affects peanut supply, and farmers are more reluctant to sell. Some oil mills' trial purchases sent positive signals, but the overall trading atmosphere is still dull [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **豆一**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **豆油**: ★★★ [1] - **棕榈油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜粕**: ★☆☆ [1] - **菜油**: ★☆☆ [1] - **玉米**: ★☆☆ [1] - **生猪**: ★☆☆ [1] - **鸡蛋**: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market of agricultural products is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade. Different products have different trends in the short - term and long - term, and some products may be suitable for long - term investment, while others need to wait for better opportunities [2][3][4] Summaries by Category Soybean - related - **Soybean (Domestic)**: After the decline in prices digested the negative news, the short positions in the domestic soybean main contract decreased, and the price rebounded. The policy - side is holding auctions, with an increase in the auction success rate. The marginal supply in the market has increased, and market participants will conduct competitive procurement this week. The domestic soybean crop is expected to be good, and new soybeans will be on the market in late September. Attention should be paid to the opening price of new - season soybeans [2] - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: Internationally, due to bio - diesel policies, the global oil market is strong, which may drive up soybean crushing volume, resulting in an "oil - strong, meal - weak" situation. In the domestic market, the US tariff policy will continue to affect the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year. The high cost of imported Brazilian beans limits the decline of domestic bean meal. Although the soybean arrival volume in the next three months is sufficient, there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is cautiously bullish [3] Oil - related - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to supply and has support from demand. The short - term domestic soybean supply is still loose, and the long - term supply is affected by Sino - US trade. The supply - demand situation of palm oil in Malaysia has improved, and that in Indonesia is better. Considering the long - term development of bio - diesel in the US and Indonesia, investors can consider buying bean and palm oil at low prices while controlling risks [4] Rapeseed - related - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed futures in the international market is under short - term pressure as rapeseeds in Canada, the EU, and Australia are about to be harvested. The supply of rapeseed will be relatively abundant. China's rapeseed imports are diversifying, and the domestic rapeseed supply - demand is expected to be in a tight - balance state. The short - term futures market may stabilize, but attention should be paid to the negative impact of the international rapeseed harvest [6] Other Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures have shown signs of stabilization. The new - season corn crop is expected to be good due to favorable weather. Some traders in northern ports have expanded their warehouses in advance. The short - term market may be stable, and the long - term market may be weak [7] - **Pigs**: On Monday, the main contract of live - hog futures opened high and closed low. The pig - to - grain ratio is still below 6:1. The supply of live - hogs is expected to increase in September, but demand may also be supported by festivals. The price of live - hogs may still face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to policies and the release of supply [8] - **Eggs**: On Monday, the egg futures market continued to increase positions. The spot price of eggs did not rise significantly during the back - to - school season. Due to continuous losses, the number of old hens being culled has increased, and the number of new - laying hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. If the spot price of eggs does not rebound in September, more old hens may be culled around the Mid - autumn Festival. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, investors can consider going long, while for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - position funds [9]

农产品早报 2025-09-02 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周一美豆休市，巴西升贴水上调，大豆进口成本上涨。国内豆粕受成本传导盘面反弹，周一国内豆粕现 货小幅上涨 20 元/吨，华东基差 01-80 持平。上周国内豆粕、大豆均累库，折豆粕库存仍处高位，去库 仍需等待压榨量及到港量拐点，下游库存天数小幅上升 0.36 天至 8.87 天。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压 榨大豆 243 万吨，本周预计压榨 240 万吨。 杨泽元 美豆产区 9 月初预报降雨恢复，整体预计中性略少水平。巴西方面，升贴水回落后震荡反弹。总体来看， USDA 大幅调低种植面积，美豆产量环比下调 108 万吨，短期利多 CBO ...