来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）近期A股整体呈现震荡上行格局，市场成交维持高位，赚钱效应明 显修复。与此同时，主要宽基指数涨跌互现，市场风格分化进一步加剧。代表大盘蓝筹的上证50和沪深 300指数表现较弱，而中证500和中证1000等中小盘指数则大幅领涨。逆周期调节政策落地后，春季行情 将如何演绎？市场结构性分化会否延续？请看本周机构研判。 中信证券：市场信心持续恢复中 消费链的增配时点就是当下 近期宽基ETF的赎回规模继续放大，在此背景下，不同行业和个股的承接力相差较大。从结构上来看， 主动型机构超配的板块和个股在宽基ETF赎回潮中反而超额收益更明显。往后看，市场信心处于持续恢 复过程中，只要估值处于相对低位、具备增长逻辑且非宽基权重股的行业，预计都将出现修复。其中消 费链的增配时点就是当下到3月前后，地产链亦可能在此阶段发生明显修复。 此外，在"资源+传统制造定价权重估"的基本思路下，围绕化工、有色、新能源、电力设备构建的基础 组合，仍然是优先配置方向。在此基础上，投资者可逢低增配非银（证券、保险），同时通过部分内需 品种（如免税、航空、建材等）或高景气品种（半导体设备、材 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the pharmaceutical sector [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes three main investment themes for 2026: innovation, overseas expansion, and turnaround impulses, with a focus on BD2.0, small nucleic acids, and supply chain (CXO and upstream) [2][3] - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector is currently experiencing a rotation in investment focus, particularly in areas such as brain-computer interfaces, AI integration, small nucleic acids, and medical robotics [3] Summary by Sections Public Fund Holdings Update for Q4 2025 - Overall, the market value of public funds holding pharmaceutical stocks has decreased, with a total market value of 217.6 billion yuan, down by 51 billion yuan from the previous quarter [14] - The pharmaceutical sector's allocation in public funds is 7.96%, a decrease of 1.74 percentage points [19] - Chemical preparations remain the most heavily weighted sub-industry, while allocations to medical devices have increased [14][25] Market Review and Analysis - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index decreased by 0.39% week-on-week, outperforming the CSI 300 index but underperforming the ChiNext index [1] - The total trading volume in the pharmaceutical sector was 554.24 billion yuan, accounting for 4.00% of the total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific companies for potential investment, including: - CXO and innovative drug companies such as Tigermed, Zhaoyan New Drug, and Hai Si Ke, which have seen significant increases in fund holdings [16][38] - AI innovative drug companies like Jingtai Holdings and small nucleic acid firms such as Frontier Biotech and Yuyuan Pharmaceutical [3][38] - The report also highlights the importance of exploring CROs, essential drugs, and companies showing signs of bottoming out [3]

北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 北交所主题基金 2025 年成绩单平均 55.53%，把脉 2026 年结构性机会 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 公布 2025Q4 季报，11 家主题基金 2025 年收益率均值达 55.53% 从公募机构在北交所配置家数来看，2024 年末共计 29 家公募机构配置北交所股 票，同比增长 31.82%，2025 年末公募基金重仓北交所企业的数量分别为 41 家， 同比 2024 年末增长 41.38%。从公募机构在北交所重仓配置金额角度来看，2025 年末公募机构在北交所重仓配置金额 90.50 亿元，重仓配置占比达 0.12%。其中 2025 年单季度末公募机构在北交所重仓配置金额分别为 67.43 亿元、98.92 亿元、 103.07 亿元、90.50 亿元，重仓配置占比达 0.11%、0.17%、0.14%、0.12%。从被 动指数基金规模角度来看，2025 年北证 50 指数基金规模高增长。2022-2026 年 北证 50 指数基金规模 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the introduction of the "Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries for New Energy Vehicles," which will take effect on April 1, 2026, mandating a full lifecycle management approach for retired batteries [4][16][17] - The total amount of retired lithium batteries in mainland China is projected to increase from 157,100 tons in 2020 to 455,100 tons in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30.5% [4][37][39] - The report identifies four companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange involved in lithium battery recycling, with a total market capitalization of 10.459 billion yuan as of January 23, 2026 [4][45][46] Group 2 - The chemical new materials sector experienced an average weekly increase of 5.11% in stock prices, with notable companies such as Meibang Technology and Tianli Composite showing significant gains [5][62] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the chemical new materials industry rose to 42.5X, indicating a positive market sentiment [5][62] - The technology sector saw a median P/E ratio increase from 44.3X to 44.7X, with a total market capitalization growth from 546.417 billion yuan to 560.692 billion yuan [6][76][77] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of both tiered utilization and recycling of retired power batteries, with tiered utilization focusing on reusing batteries with remaining capacity for applications such as energy storage systems [25][26] - The recycling process aims to extract valuable materials from waste batteries, with physical and chemical recovery methods being the primary techniques employed [27][29][30] - The report notes that the global processing volume of retired batteries is expected to grow from 338,400 tons in 2020 to 1.3 million tons by 2024, with a CAGR of 40.6% [40]

Group 1 - The spring market is progressing along a predetermined path, driven by the principle of "steady progress," with a foundation for a perfect spring market established through incremental gaming and favorable conditions for long positions [3][4][5] - The spring market is characterized by a complete rotation of sectors and a broad diffusion of profit effects, with short-term investments in cyclical Alpha expanding towards more cyclical turning points [3][4][5] - The overall profit effect is nearing a high point, which may limit the time and space for subsequent market movements after the initial surge [3][4][5] Group 2 - The spring market is essentially an extension and expansion phase of the high valuation area of the 2025 technology structural market, with some investment directions entering a high volatility phase [5][6] - After the spring market, a consolidation phase is likely, focusing on waiting for clearer clues regarding the next phase of industrial trends and the digestion of performance and valuation [5][6] - The second half of 2026 is expected to see a new upward phase driven by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, new stages in technology industry trends, and increased asset allocation towards equities by residents [5][6] Group 3 - Short-term focus is on cyclical Alpha as a key direction for market exploration of low positions, with resistance likely increasing as profit effects expand to high levels [6][8] - Subsequent rotation directions include opportunities for rebounds in previously strong sectors like commercial aerospace and AI applications, while sectors with relatively low profit effects may see a rotation and recovery [6][8] - The long-term outlook remains positive for both cyclical Alpha and technology sectors, with a focus on sectors such as overseas computing chains, AI applications, semiconductors, energy storage, and commercial aerospace [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance forecast for 2025 shows a cumulative disclosure rate of approximately 13.1% and a cumulative positive performance rate of about 40.3% among the disclosed companies [15]. Performance Forecast Summary - Among the 717 companies that disclosed performance forecasts, 180 companies (25.1%) expect an increase in performance, 45 companies (6.3%) expect a slight increase, 58 companies (8.1%) expect to turn losses into profits, and 6 companies (0.8%) expect to maintain profits. Conversely, 428 companies (59.7%) anticipate a decrease in performance, losses, or have uncertain forecasts [15][22]. - The disclosure rates for different boards are as follows: Shenzhen Main Board (10.34%), ChiNext (9.91%), Shanghai Main Board (19.25%), Sci-Tech Innovation Board (15.17%), and Beijing Stock Exchange (2.43%) [15]. Industry Performance Analysis Advanced Manufacturing - The mechanical equipment industry shows a remarkable net profit growth rate of 890.28%, with an index increase of 10.16%. The defense and military industry has a profit growth rate of 112.69%, aligning with the index increase of 12.76%. The power equipment industry maintains stable performance with a net profit growth of 12.79% and an index increase of 9.64% [27]. Pharmaceutical and Medical - The pharmaceutical and biological industry reports a net profit growth of 10.35%, with an index increase of 6.66%, indicating a moderate match between performance and market performance [3]. Cyclical Industries - The basic chemical and non-ferrous metal industries exhibit strong performance with profit growth rates of 135.50% and 57.02%, respectively, while the construction materials industry shows a profit growth of 58.19% [3]. - In contrast, the oil and petrochemical industry experiences a drastic decline in net profit by 692.13%, yet the index still rises by 7.74% [3]. Consumer Sector - The social services and automotive industries report extraordinary net profit growth rates of 1900.3% and 587.7%, respectively, with index increases of 9.71% and 5.63%. However, the light manufacturing and beauty care industries face significant profit declines of 65.43% and 59.09%, respectively, while their indices increase [3]. Technology (TMT) - The media industry shows a significant divergence with a net profit decline of 65.62%, despite an index increase of 17.69%. In contrast, the computer and electronics industries demonstrate a positive correlation between profit growth rates of 121.78% and 88.48% and index increases of 12.30% and 13.36% [4]. Financial and Real Estate - The real estate industry reports a staggering net profit decline of 100.5%, while the index increases by 6.66%. The banking and non-banking financial sectors show profit growth rates of 4.58% and 41.16%, respectively, with corresponding index declines [4].

作者 丨易妍君 截至2026年1月22日，公募基金2025年第4季度报告基本披露完毕，主动权益基金前十大重仓 股名单随之更新。 从持股绝对市值来看，据国信证券经济研究所金融工程组统计， 截至2025年4季度末，主动权 益基金持有市值排名前十的个股依次是：中际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、紫金矿 业、阿里巴巴-W、寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密。 编辑丨张星 公募主动权益基金第一大重仓股有了"新面孔"。 机构最新统计数据显示，截至2025年4季度末， 中际旭创代替宁德时代成为主动权益基金（包 括主动股票基金、偏股混合基金、灵活配置基金）第一大重仓股。 截至1月23日收盘，中际旭创 股价 报585 元，总市值6500亿元。 同时，主动权益基金第二大至第十大重仓股排序均较上一季度发生变化，如新易盛取代腾讯控 股成为基金第二大重仓股，紫金矿业从第八大重仓股晋级为第五大重仓股，寒武纪-U升为第七 大重仓股；而宁德时代、腾讯控股分别退为第三、第四大重仓股，中芯国际退出了前十大重仓 股队列。 另外，主动权益基金在行业配置层面也有调整。据机构统计，2025年4季度，主动权益基金增 配较多的行业包括有色金属、通信 ...

- The overall disclosure rate of 2025 annual performance forecasts is approximately 13.1%, with a cumulative positive performance rate of about 40.3%[4][20] - Among the disclosed performance forecasts, 180 companies have forecasted performance growth, accounting for 25.1%[4][20] - The advanced manufacturing sector shows a high growth trend, with the machinery and equipment industry having a net profit growth rate of 890.3%[4][39] - The pharmaceutical and medical sector's performance matches the market performance moderately, with the pharmaceutical and biological industry having a net profit growth rate of 10.35%[4][40] - The cyclical sector shows significant internal performance differentiation, with the basic chemical and non-ferrous metal industries having strong performance, with profit growth rates of 135.5% and 57.02%, respectively[4][40] - The consumer sector shows large performance elasticity, with the social services and automotive industries having net profit growth rates of 1900.3% and 587.7%, respectively[4][42] - The technology (TMT) sector shows a divergence, with the media industry having a net profit decline of 65.62%, but the index has increased by 17.69% since the beginning of the year[4][42] - The financial and real estate sectors show mixed performance, with the real estate industry having a net profit decline of 100.5%, but the index has increased by 6.66%[4][42]

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively rose on January 23, with over 3,900 stocks closing higher, including 121 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - For the week, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.11%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.34% [2] Weekly Stock Performance - Over 4,200 stocks rose this week, with 35 stocks gaining over 30%. The largest increase was seen in *ST Lifan, which surged by 95.52% [3] - Other notable gainers included *ST K Pharmaceutical and Fenglong Co., which both saw increases exceeding 50% [3] - The power equipment sector had 10 stocks listed among those with over 30% gains, while the machinery and non-ferrous metals sectors had 4 stocks each [3] Top Gainers - The top gainers for the week included: - *ST Lifan: 95.52% increase, closing at 1.31 yuan [4] - *ST K Pharmaceutical: 70.37% increase, closing at 0.92 yuan [4] - Fenglong Co.: 61.08% increase, closing at 99.53 yuan [4] - Other significant gainers included companies in construction decoration and power equipment sectors [4] Weekly Decliners - Among the stocks that declined, 46 stocks fell by over 10%, with Koma Materials dropping over 30% [5] - Other notable decliners included Silin Jie and Bofei Electric, which saw declines of over 24% [5] Institutional Activity - Institutions were active in the market, with 160 stocks appearing on the institutional leaderboard, net buying 102 stocks and net selling 58 stocks [7] - The highest net buying was seen in Shengxin Lithium Energy, which rose by 26.38% with a net institutional purchase of approximately 638.55 million yuan [9] - Other stocks with significant institutional net buying included Quanfeng Technology and Hunan Silver, with net purchases of 604.81 million yuan and 352.97 million yuan, respectively [9] Notable Announcements - Shuaifeng Electric announced an expected net loss of 43 million to 62 million yuan for 2025, with projected revenue between 210 million to 250 million yuan [12] - Anqi Yeast plans to invest 222 million yuan in a new green manufacturing project for yeast products [13] - Construction Machinery expects a net loss of approximately 2.072 billion yuan for 2025, attributed to a downturn in the tower crane rental market [13] - Aerospace Electric anticipates a net loss of 39 million to 58 million yuan for 2025, impacted by industry overcapacity and competitive pressures [13] - Lisheng Pharmaceutical forecasts a net profit of 400 million to 440 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 116.77% to 138.44% [14]

Group 1 - The average stock price of A-shares is 14.84 yuan, with 29 stocks priced below 2 yuan, the lowest being *ST Aowei at 0.73 yuan [1] - Among the low-priced stocks, 8 are ST stocks, accounting for 27.59% of the total [1] - In terms of market performance, 26 of the low-priced stocks increased in price, with *ST Changyao, *ST Lifang, and Yabo shares leading the gains at 19.48%, 13.91%, and 10.06% respectively [1] Group 2 - The stock price rankings of low-priced stocks show *ST Aowei at 0.73 yuan with a daily decline of 5.19%, while *ST Changyao and *ST Lifang have daily increases of 19.48% and 13.91% respectively [1] - The trading volume for *ST Changyao is notable with a turnover rate of 19.92%, while *ST Lifang has a turnover rate of 26.78% [1] - Other low-priced stocks include *ST Jinke at 1.49 yuan and Chongqing Steel at 1.54 yuan, with respective daily changes of 0.68% and 2.67% [1]