文｜财华社 美东时间2025年4月9日，特朗普宣布延缓除部分地区以外所有地区的"对等关税"，有意思的是，在4月9日经历了大跌 之后，地球上除了美股之外，主要股市似显现复苏迹象，欧股更连涨数日。 经历了"债股汇三杀"后，美国资产价格元气大伤。 十年期美债收益率更一度恐慌性大升至4.5%的水平，美元指数到现在还在100以下水平徘徊，迟迟未能重返100水 平。 资金更加速逃离美国风险资产。财华社估算的数据显示，4月9日以来，美股三大指数道琼斯工业平均指数 （DJI.US）、纳斯达克指数（IXIC.US）和标普500指数（SPX.US）的累计变幅分别为-1.27%、0.24%和0.51%，明显 跑输其他主要股市的表现。 资金的路径其实有迹可循，除了屡创新高的黄金在迎接资金的进入外，全球股权投资布局也在悄悄发生变化。 美元指数大跌，欧元和日元走强 如期望通过美元兑主要货币下降来挺进外贸的特朗普所愿，美元汇价走低，见下图。 也许欧元和日元兑美元正合特朗普的意思，后者希望通过货币走弱来获取更大的贸易优势。然而，我们不能忽略的 是，欧元和日元走强的同时，欧元区股指和日股也在走强，再反观美股，却是在走弱，或许暗示聪明资金正逃离 ...

Group 1 - The core initiative is the "2025 Shandong Province Foreign Trade Quality Products Shopping Season," aimed at supporting foreign trade enterprises to expand domestic sales channels and stabilize operations [1][3] - The shopping season will consist of five phases, starting with a focus on textiles, daily consumer goods, and toys from May 15 to 19, featuring over 400 foreign trade enterprises [3] - Shandong will regularly host key exhibitions and activities from May to December, including "Foreign Trade Quality Products Show" and "Six In" activities, to enhance the continuity and timeliness of foreign trade enterprises' efforts [3][6] Group 2 - The initiative promotes the "same line, same standard, same quality" policy, ensuring that products for domestic and international markets meet the same quality standards [4] - Shandong will facilitate the certification process for export-to-domestic products, reducing the certification time from 90 days to 30 days [4] - The shopping season will include activities in tourist areas and cultural venues to integrate foreign trade products into the tourism consumption chain [5] Group 3 - The province will launch an online "Shandong Foreign Trade Quality Products Pavilion" on major e-commerce platforms, offering incentives such as waived deposits and fees for participating enterprises [5] - Financial support measures will be developed to assist foreign trade enterprises in expanding domestic sales, addressing issues like standards and funding shortages [6] - In the first quarter, Shandong's retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.6% year-on-year, and the total import and export value increased by 5.9%, both outpacing national averages [6]

2025.04. 24 本文字数：2191，阅读时长大约4分钟 导读 ： 伴宠机器人、可用再生能源的锂电割草机……中国产品吸引外商的不仅是价格，更多是创新性、可定 制。 作者 | 第一财经 王珍 封图 | 俞倩在广交会接待外国客商 作为中国对外贸易的晴雨表，目前正在广州举行的第137届中国进出口商品交易会（广交会），展馆 里外商云集、人流如鲫。关税变数没有阻挡外商们的采购热情。 做电动工具出口的俞倩中午12点在接待客商的间隙告诉第一财经记者，与往年不同，今年中国的出 口企业没有再把创新产品"藏着、掖着"，而是把创新产品大方地陈列出来、吸引客人，来广交会的客 商也不只是简单地压价，会坐下来细谈产品的定制。 俞倩顺手拿起一个外形有点像游戏机的汽车打蜡机说，她会让同事把汽车美容后市场工具往小家电的 风格去设计。尽管美国市场的出口暂时碰到挑战，但是俞倩说"在内销上已找到感觉，中国市场很 大，拥有汽车的人越来越多，我们也在做自己的品牌"。 更让她兴奋的是，她们展出的电机、控制器等全产业链零配件，激发了外商的定制需求。一位阿根廷 客人提出，能否与她们合作研制用于畜牧业拉牲口的收绳电动工具，她预计两三个月就能研发出新产 品 ...

Core Insights - The 137th China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair) showcases strong foreign interest in Chinese exports despite tariff uncertainties, highlighting a shift towards innovation and customization in product offerings [4][5] Group 1: Innovation and Product Development - Chinese export companies are openly displaying innovative products at the Canton Fair, moving away from previous practices of withholding new designs [4] - Companies like Zhejiang Chengkang Electromechanical Manufacturing Co. are focusing on developing their own brands and responding to domestic market demands, indicating a strategic pivot towards internal sales [4][5] - Zhejiang Dongyi New Energy Power Technology Co. has successfully introduced innovative products like a fifth-generation lawn mower in the European market, demonstrating adaptability despite challenges in the U.S. market [7] Group 2: Market Expansion Strategies - Companies are diversifying their market strategies by exploring e-commerce platforms such as Taobao and JD.com for domestic sales, while also targeting emerging markets in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Thailand [10] - The battery industry, represented by companies like Nanfu Battery, is also seeking growth in Europe and emerging markets, capitalizing on new regulations that require removable batteries in appliances [10][11] - Customization is a key trend, with companies like Jinda Intelligent Innovation Technology Co. receiving numerous inquiries for tailored products from international clients, indicating a demand for localized solutions [11] Group 3: Sales Performance and Future Outlook - Jinda Intelligent has reported over 100,000 intended orders for their robotic products at the fair, showcasing strong demand and a robust supply chain for rapid product assembly [8] - The export of alkaline batteries by Nanfu reached 1.6 billion units last year, with expectations for continued growth and the potential addition of production lines to meet rising demand [10][11] - The pet robot market is projected to grow by 5%-10% annually, driven by increasing pet ownership, indicating a promising future for companies in this segment [11]

Group 1 - In the first quarter, Yichun's total import and export reached 5.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% [1] - Exports amounted to 4.46 billion yuan, growing by 30.3%, while imports were 690 million yuan, increasing by 4.3% [1] - Production-oriented enterprises dominated the foreign trade, accounting for 81.7% of the total foreign trade value [1] Group 2 - Private enterprises played a significant role as a "stabilizer" in foreign trade, with imports and exports reaching 3.36 billion yuan, a growth of 36.9% [1] - Foreign-invested enterprises had imports and exports of 1.7 billion yuan, growing by 9%, while state-owned enterprises accounted for 97.37 million yuan, increasing by 27.2% [1] Group 3 - Trade with major partners showed overall growth, with ASEAN, EU, Japan, and the US seeing respective trade values of 1.27 billion yuan, 810 million yuan, 700 million yuan, and 630 million yuan [2] - Trade with Belt and Road countries reached 2.62 billion yuan, growing by 38.7%, while trade with other RCEP members was 2.2 billion yuan, increasing by 47.1% [2] Group 4 - Processing trade continued to rise, with imports and exports totaling 1.25 billion yuan, a growth of 89.8%, accounting for 24.3% of the total [2] - Mechanical and electrical products maintained a rapid growth rate, with exports of 2.01 billion yuan, increasing by 67.7% [2] Group 5 - The demand for intermediate goods remained stable, with imports totaling 620 million yuan, a growth of 5.2%, making up 90.7% of total imports [3] - Integrated circuits and inorganic chemicals saw imports of 220 million yuan and 100 million yuan, growing by 5.7% and 34.7% respectively [3]

美国推出新一轮的单边关税政策 1 2025年4月2日，在美国的"解放日"中，美国政府宣布了国家紧急状态并推出了覆盖所有美国贸易伙伴 的"互惠"(reciprocal)关税政策。而在此之前，已经有多项针对其主要贸易伙伴（如中国，加拿大、墨 西哥等）的关税政策出台，部分已经进入执行状态。 在2024年，美国的进出口逆差超过了1.2万亿美元 1 ，在此情况下这一次的关税体现了两个特点，第 一为覆盖范围广——覆盖所有贸易伙伴，即使美国的贸易顺差国家也被加以10%的关税，第二为有针 对性的差异化税率，美国的主要贸易逆差国家和地区被加征更高的关税。 | 2 | | --- | 美国与中国的关税博弈自2018年始， 特朗普开始第二任期后再次升级 本文选自科尔尼 2025 年 4 月 8 日刊发的行业通讯，现全文分享。 中美作为全球最大的两大经济体，2024年中美双边贸易额约6800亿美元，其中美国对中国出口约 1600亿美元，美国从中国进口约5200亿美元，贸易逆差约3600亿美元 2 。 其中中国主要出口机电产品、纺织鞋服、金属制品等，美国主要出口机械电子、农产品、能源等，因 此这些行业中的企业受关税影响较大。 美国政府 ...

作者：张云杰 陶川 如我们在前期报告《 关税下出口：已知压力和未知风险 》中所指出的， 3 月还观察不到出口的下行压力，"早春"、低基数等因素将推高 当月出口同比。 但在关税升级后，后续出口将进入"新范式"。 如何看待出口的已知变化和未知风险？我们围绕以下四个问题展开回答： Q ： 3 月出口大超预期，源自哪些因素？ A ："季节性"脉冲是核心原因。 基于历史经验，春节时点靠前往往会压低 1-2 月出口、抬高 3 月出口表现（可参照 2006 、 2014 、 2017 年等春节时点与今年相近的年份， 3 月出口环比均为历史较高水平）。 今年不仅是"早春"，而且和去年形成"错位"（ 2024 年恰好是"晚 春"， 3 月出口环比较低），这些因素共同放大了 3 月出口同比读数。 从实际数据看， 3 月出口环比略高于"季节性"水平。 其次，"对等关税"落地前夕，出现了一部分"抢出口"需求。 这一因素可能解释了 3 月出口好于"季节性"的这部分。 一方面， 3 月外需是边际回落的，全球制造业 PMI 较上月下滑 0.3 个百分点至 50.3% 。 另一方面， 从国别上看，主要是对一些"转口"贸易区域的出口增速大幅反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of China's foreign trade in the first quarter of 2025, indicating a modest growth in imports and exports despite external challenges, with a focus on the role of private enterprises and the impact of international trade dynamics [1][2]. Trade Data Summary - In the first quarter, China's total goods trade reached 10.3 trillion yuan, growing by 1.3%. Exports amounted to 6.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.9%, while imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, decreasing by 6% [4]. - The growth rate of imports and exports showed a monthly recovery, with a decline of 2.2% in January, stability in February, and a growth of 6% in March [4]. Private Enterprises Performance - Private enterprises' imports and exports reached 5.85 trillion yuan, growing by 5.8%, accounting for 56.8% of the total trade. They achieved growth in trade with nearly 180 countries and regions [5][9]. - Exports of high-tech products by private enterprises hit a historical high, nearing 1 trillion yuan, with significant growth in industrial robots (67.4%) and high-end machine tools (16.4%) [5][10]. Mechanical and Electrical Products - The import and export of mechanical and electrical products totaled 5.29 trillion yuan, growing by 7.7%, with notable increases in household appliances, laptops, and electronic components for exports, and automatic data processing equipment and marine engineering equipment for imports [6]. Key Provinces and Cities - The seven major provinces and cities (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Shandong, Fujian) accounted for 7.78 trillion yuan in trade, representing three-quarters of China's total trade, demonstrating a sustained growth trend [7]. International Trade Dynamics - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on China's trade, emphasizing the need for multilateral cooperation to address global trade challenges. China is committed to defending its trade rights and maintaining a fair international trade environment [12][15]. - Despite external pressures, China's export resilience is highlighted, with a focus on diversifying markets and strengthening supply chain collaborations [13]. Future Trade Outlook - The article expresses optimism regarding China's trade relations with the EU, noting the mutual benefits and cooperation potential in maintaining open trade and investment channels [22]. - China's commitment to high-level opening-up and mutually beneficial economic cooperation is reiterated, alongside the importance of expanding imports to share development opportunities globally [23][18].

Core Insights - The total import and export value of electromechanical products in China reached 5.29 trillion yuan in the first quarter, reflecting a growth of 7.7% [1] Export Highlights - Notable growth in exports was observed in household appliances, laptops, and electronic components [1] Import Highlights - Significant increases in imports were seen for automatic data processing equipment parts, ships, and marine engineering equipment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China due to the U.S. government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs," which are deemed excessive and unilateral, undermining international trade order [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact on Global Trade - The U.S. frequent changes in tariff measures have left many foreign trade enterprises in confusion, significantly suppressing foreign trade transactions and leading to a notable downward effect on global trade scale [2][17]. - The "tariff stick" wielded by the U.S. has become a major source of uncertainty in the global foreign trade market, overshadowing the growth prospects of global trade [2][17]. - The current market panic, exacerbated by U.S. tariff measures and protectionist actions, has led to a rise in the U.S. market panic index to levels seen in spring 2020, negatively impacting consumer confidence and market demand [2][17]. Group 2: Nature of Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China are no longer reciprocal in nature, with rates exceeding 50% and in some cases over 100%, categorizing them as "extortionate tariffs" that severely hinder normal trade operations [4][6]. - The high tariff levels have rendered international trade nearly impossible for Chinese foreign trade enterprises, which operate in a highly competitive environment with limited profit margins [4][6]. Group 3: China's Response Strategy - China has adopted a "combination punch" strategy involving "increased tariffs + demand restrictions + policy coordination" to counter U.S. measures, achieving some effectiveness [7][16]. - Demand-side restrictions have been implemented, such as reducing the import quota for U.S. films and issuing travel warnings for studying and tourism in the U.S., targeting the service trade sector where the U.S. has a significant surplus [7][16]. - A policy matrix focusing on "list control + qualification review + market access restrictions" has been established to ensure precision and sustainability in China's countermeasures against the U.S. [7][16]. Group 4: Affected Industries - The sectors most impacted by the tariffs include machinery and electronics, textiles and apparel, furniture and toys, metals and products, transportation equipment, personal computers, and chemicals, with significant export values reported for each category [5][6]. - The anticipated impact on U.S.-China trade is expected to be substantial, particularly in the second and third quarters of 2025, affecting production and trade chains, and potentially leading to negative consequences for employment and economic growth [6].