Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall inventory build - up rate has widened month - on - month. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing while mixed rubber arrivals are slightly decreasing. Downstream tire manufacturers are cautious in replenishing stocks, with a mostly wait - and - see purchasing sentiment and low overall outbound volume. In terms of demand, the resumption of production by previously overhauled enterprises has driven a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises last week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous rise of finished product inventory, there is a possibility of individual enterprises undergoing maintenance or reducing production in the later stage. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,150 - 12,650 in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,390 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,570 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 0 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,820 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 146,495 lots, up 14,415 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 61,828 lots, up 2,594 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 30,266 lots, up 1,040 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11,485 lots, up 428 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 87,160 tons, up 2,900 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 59,573 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,250 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 720 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,930 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 545 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 53.8 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 40.58 days, up 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.51 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.36%, up 0.67 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.76%, up 0.45 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.51%, down 0.2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%; the general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58%. As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2].

证券之星消息，12月17日橡胶板块较上一交易日上涨0.46%，科创新源领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3870.28，上涨1.19%。深证成指报收于13224.51，上涨2.4%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流出1.88亿元，游资资金净流出3394.25万元，散户资金净 流入2.22亿元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for natural rubber showed a positive trend, with the main contract opening at 15,155.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 15,450.00 CNY, reflecting a price increase of 1.42% [1] - In November, the average market price of Thai RSS3 rubber increased month-on-month, while Indonesian SIR20 rubber prices remained stable but decreased on average [2] - As of December 14, 2025, the general trade inventory of Qingdao natural rubber increased by 0.66 million tons to 421,400 tons, marking a 1.58% rise [2] Group 2 - The transition to the off-harvest season in domestic production areas is leading to a decrease in supply elasticity, while raw rubber prices remain relatively firm due to stable demand from the all-steel tire sector [3] - New Lake Futures indicated that the expected accumulation of natural rubber in December is normal and seasonal, preparing for supply during the off-harvest season [2] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures noted that overseas supply pressure persists as rubber tapping progresses, contributing to continuous inventory accumulation in Qingdao [3]

新湖期货表示，近期，传闻某生产企业出口一船2000吨丁二烯。丁二烯市场流通量非常少，2000吨对丁 二烯来说数量不少。今年，进口量大是丁二烯的一个重要利空。现在出现出口，说明丁二烯价格已经很 低，出口窗口打开，下方支撑强。后期净进口减少也将改善丁二烯基本面。明年一季度，丁二烯没有新 产能投放，但下游有装置投放预期。无论是从产能角度还是从进出口角度看，短期丁二烯价格筑底，中 长期将走好。顺丁胶自身矛盾不大，主要跟随丁二烯运行，短期震荡，逢低可介入长线多单。 11月17日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，合成橡胶期货主力合约开盘报10910.0元/吨，今日盘中 高位震荡运行；截至发稿，合成橡胶主力最高触及11210.0元，下方探低10890.0元，涨幅达2.44%附 近。 目前来看，合成橡胶行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于合成橡胶后市行情将如何运行，相关 机构观点汇总如下： 中辉期货指出，据隆众了解，裕龙石化已经重启，目前上游只剩茂名石化在检修中，预计1月中旬重 启。上游丁二烯原料价格企稳，尤其下游检修减少后，丁二烯需求支撑回升，预计价格稳定为主，对顺 丁橡胶成本端支撑有所提升。经历长期的磨底之后，近期合 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the products in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the price center of oil prices declined. WTI January contract closed down $1.55 to $55.27 per barrel, a decrease of 2.73%. Brent February contract closed down $1.64 to $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71%. SC2601 closed at 421.8 yuan per barrel, down 9.1 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 2.11%. With the intensification of market macro - risks, oil prices will continue to seek a bottom [1]. - The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage shipments from the Western market to Singapore in December are expected to decrease, the Asian fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in December and January. The short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may fluctuate repeatedly following oil prices [2]. - The asphalt market is relatively firm due to concerns about future raw material shortages. The downstream demand shows obvious north - south differentiation. In the short term, asphalt may remain stable under weak oil prices, but there is also a possibility of price decline if oil prices continue to fall [2]. - In the polyester market, with the decline of processing fees and seasonal weakening of terminal demand, prices will be further dragged down. Ethylene glycol is under pressure due to new production capacity and some loss - making devices [2][4]. - For rubber, the weather in overseas production areas has improved, raw material prices have rebounded, but demand support is limited. Rubber futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4]. - In the methanol market, Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January, but MTO device loads are also decreasing. Methanol prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [5]. - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term futures decline space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply oscillations and weakening domestic demand. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Market expectations were different from the actual data. Macro data and geopolitical factors were also mentioned. Oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil declined. The market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, but high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profit decline may boost refinery demand in the future. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract declined. Concerns about raw material shortages made the market relatively firm. Downstream demand has north - south differences. Short - term prices may remain stable but could fall if oil prices drop further [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 declined, EG2605 rose. Processing fees are low, terminal demand is seasonally weak, and new ethylene glycol production capacity is increasing supply pressure [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. Overseas weather improvement and raw material price rebound, but limited demand support, leading to expected wide - range oscillations [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, prices in different regions were reported. Supply is high - level oscillating, and demand is weakening. Iranian device shutdowns and MTO device load changes affect the market, with prices expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, prices and profit margins were given. Supply will remain high, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, market prices in different regions increased. Supply is expected to increase slightly, demand will weaken, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Data such as spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and basis changes of various energy - chemical products on December 16th and 15th were presented, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The negotiation between the U.S. and Ukraine on security guarantees for Ukraine made progress, but there are still differences on territorial issues [9]. - API data showed that last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased, which was different from market expectations [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Included price charts of main contracts of various products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [11][12][13] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Included basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Included spread charts of different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [43][45][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Included spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][72] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Included production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [69] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **钟美燕**: The Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals. With rich experience and many awards, she provides services for many companies and has media influence [74]. - **杜冰沁**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping. She has won many awards and has in - depth industry research [75]. - **邸艺琳**: A natural rubber and polyester analyst. She has won awards and is good at data analysis [76]. - **彭海波**: An analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, polyolefins, and PVC. With a background in trade and financial knowledge [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [11]. - The investment rating for BR is neutral [11]. Report's Core View - The support for natural rubber is still at the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand may support the raw material prices, but the overall supply is increasing. Domestic port inventory is expected to rise further, and downstream tire orders are in the off - season, resulting in weak supply - demand drivers [11]. - For cis - butadiene rubber, supply remains abundant. Downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - In the futures market, on the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,385 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,930 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton [1]. - In the spot market, the price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,755 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Market Information - In November 2025, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks was 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - duty truck market this year [2]. - In November, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million units and 3.429 million units respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [2]. - In December 2025, the trading of all - steel tires was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, market demand weakened further. With relatively sufficient market supply, channels and terminal stores mainly focused on digesting existing inventory, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average. The market transaction price was stable with a weak trend, and some merchants carried out promotional activities according to their inventory [2]. - From January to October 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume reached 586.64 million, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2]. Import and Export Data - In October 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - classified, latex, smoked sheets, primary shapes, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3]. - According to QinRex data, in the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the total exports of standard rubber were 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the exports of latex were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the exports of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the exports of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the exports of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the RU basis was - 270 yuan/ton (+30), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 720 yuan/ton (- 30), the NR basis was 570 yuan/ton (- 35); the price of full - latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of mixed rubber was 14,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (unchanged); the STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (unchanged); the spread between full - latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,350 yuan/ton (- 100) [4][5]. - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 58.69 Thai baht/kg (+0.06), the price of Thai latex was 55.50 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.25 Thai baht/kg (+1.89), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.25 Thai baht/kg (- 1.39) [6]. - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.55% (+0.55%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.14% (+1.81%) [7]. - The social inventory of natural rubber was 498,888 tons (+10,159), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,123,406 tons (+20,841), the RU futures inventory was 56,990 tons (+11,460), and the NR futures inventory was 59,573 tons (+2,218) [7]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber - On December 16, 2025, the BR basis was - 330 yuan/ton (- 85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton (+100), the quoted price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 10,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private cis - butadiene rubber was 10,350 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,207 yuan/ton (- 214) [8]. - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 70.69% (- 2.84%) [9]. - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 5,450 tons (+220), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,500 tons (- 600) [10]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. The support for natural rubber comes from the cost - end. The conflict in Thailand and Cambodia and the rain in southern Thailand are expected to keep the raw material prices in Thailand firm this week. However, the overall supply is increasing, and the domestic port inventory is expected to rise. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, so the supply - demand drivers are weak [11]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. Yulong Petrochemical has restarted, and only Maoming Petrochemical is under maintenance, which is expected to restart in mid - January. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber remains abundant. The downstream tire orders are in the off - season, with weak supply - demand drivers. The stable price of upstream butadiene raw materials provides some cost support [11].

Oil Market - Oil prices declined on Tuesday, with WTI January contract closing down $1.55 at $55.27 per barrel, a drop of 2.73% [2][13] - Brent February contract closed down $1.64 at $58.92 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71% [2][13] - API reported a decrease in US crude oil inventory by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 4.8 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively [2][13] - The market expected a decrease of about 1.1 million barrels in crude oil inventory [2][13] - Geopolitical factors have not caused a significant supply shortage, and oil prices are expected to continue to seek a bottom amid increasing macro risks [2][13] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 1.5% to 2368 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 2.42% to 2909 yuan/ton [3][14] - The market remains under pressure due to ample supply, with expectations of reduced arbitrage volumes from Western markets to Singapore [3][14] - Downstream demand for marine fuel remains stable, but high-sulfur fuel oil cracking profits have declined, potentially boosting demand from Asian refineries [3][14] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 2.36% to 2894 yuan/ton [4][15] - Tensions between the US and Venezuela have raised concerns about future raw material shortages, keeping the market relatively firm [4][15] - Domestic demand for asphalt shows significant regional differences, with the North focusing on storage and the South on actual consumption [4][15] Rubber - The main rubber contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 30 yuan/ton to 15170 yuan/ton, while NR rose by 25 yuan/ton to 12385 yuan/ton [5][16] - Weather improvements in overseas production areas have led to lower raw material inventories compared to previous years [5][16] - Limited demand support is expected, leading to wide fluctuations in rubber futures prices [5][16] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4668 yuan/ton, down 0.6%, while EG2605 closed at 3788 yuan/ton, up 3.75% [6][17] - PX futures closed at 6744 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with spot prices at $827/ton [6][17] - Domestic supply pressures are expected to increase as new ethylene glycol plants come online, while some existing plants are facing losses [6][17] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were at 2103 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $244-$248/ton [7][18] - Domestic supply remains stable, but demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in downstream MTO plants [7][18] - Overall, methanol prices are anticipated to remain under pressure [7][18] Polyolefins - Main PP prices in East China ranged from 6120-6350 yuan/ton, with production margins for various methods showing negative values [8][19] - PE prices are reported at 7839 yuan/ton for HDPE and 8491 yuan/ton for LDPE [8][19] - The market is transitioning to a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with limited downside for futures prices [8][19] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for different grades ranging from 4350-4600 yuan/ton [9][20] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to some plants resuming operations, while demand is anticipated to slow down due to a decrease in real estate construction [9][20] - Overall, PVC prices are expected to trend towards a bottom [9][20] Urea - Urea futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 1630 yuan/ton [10][22] - The market is experiencing weak demand, with many regions showing a cautious purchasing sentiment [10][22] - Short-term market support is lacking, and there may be further price declines to reduce inventory [10][22] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices showed a firm trend, with the January contract closing at 1133 yuan/ton, up 1.52% [11][23] - Supply is slightly decreasing, while demand is expected to remain weak due to cautious sentiment in downstream industries [11][23] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong but limited upward trend [11][23] Glass - Glass futures prices showed wide fluctuations, with the January contract closing at 946 yuan/ton [12][24] - The market is stable, with no significant changes in production lines, and demand remains cautious [12][24] - Short-term price trends are expected to continue fluctuating at the bottom [12][24]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-12-17 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ------------- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [2][3] - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [5][6] - For urea, the supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [8][9][10] - For rubber, adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [11][12] - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [12][13][14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [16][17] - For polyethylene, the valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [19][20] - For polypropylene, in a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [22][23] - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [25][26] - For PTA, the processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [27][28][29] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [30][31] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.51%, at 430.50 yuan/barrel; related refined oil futures such as high - sulfur fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil also declined. China's weekly crude oil data showed inventory accumulation in various types of oil [2] - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait and see, and await verification of OPEC's export decline when oil prices fall [3] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in different areas had different changes. The main futures contract rose by 55 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, with a basis of +31. MTO profit was - 131 yuan [5] - **Strategy View**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port, and the supply is at a high level. The fundamentals have some pressure, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in some areas declined, and the overall basis was reported at 40 yuan/ton. The main futures contract rose by 1 yuan/ton to 1630 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand situation has improved. There is support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices [9][10] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated and consolidated. The exchange's RU inventory warrants were low, and there was buying demand for winter storage. There were different views from the long and short sides. The operating rates of domestic tire enterprises had different changes, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [11] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral approach, recommend short - term operations, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract rose by 84 yuan to 4399 yuan, and the spot price and basis had corresponding changes. The overall operating rate and downstream operating rate declined, and the inventory increased [12] - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. The fundamentals are poor. In the short term, there is a rebound driven by sentiment, but in the medium term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended [13][14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene in the spot and futures markets had different changes, and indicators such as the basis, profit, and inventory also had corresponding changes [16] - **Strategy View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair. It is possible to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price of polyethylene declined, and the spot price also declined. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate declined [19] - **Strategy View**: The valuation has limited downward space, but there is pressure from high - level warehouse receipts. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract price of polypropylene rose, and the spot price declined. The upstream operating rate increased, the inventory had different changes, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [22] - **Strategy View**: In a situation of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. It may be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, and inventory had corresponding changes [25] - **Strategy View**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract declined, and indicators such as the basis, load, inventory, and processing fee had corresponding changes [27] - **Strategy View**: The processing fee may be under pressure later. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on expected trading [28][29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract rose, and indicators such as the basis, supply - side load, downstream load, inventory, and profit had corresponding changes [30] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs greater production cuts to improve. Be wary of the rebound risk caused by an increase in unexpected maintenance [31]

Domestic Prices - The average price of concentrated latex in Hainan Province is 10,500 yuan/ton, down 1.87% compared to last week [3] - The average price of all latex in Qingdao is 14,575 yuan/ton, up 1.57% from last week; the same price is observed in Tianjin [4] - The average price of all latex in Shanghai is 14,675 yuan/ton, up 1.56% from last week [4] - The average price of mixed rubber in Qingdao is 14,800 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from last week [4] International Prices - The average price of Thai smoked sheets in the bonded zone and CIF is 2,130 USD/ton and 2,120 USD/ton, down 1.62% from last week [6] - The average price of Thai standard rubber in the bonded zone and CIF is 1,855 USD/ton and 1,815 USD/ton, with the bonded zone price up 1.09% and CIF down 1.11% from last week [6] - The average price of Indonesian standard rubber in the bonded zone and CIF is 1,745 USD/ton and 1,712.5 USD/ton, up 1.16% and 0.44% respectively from last week [9] - The average price of Malaysian standard rubber in the bonded zone and CIF is 1,855 USD/ton and 1,800 USD/ton, up 1.09% and 0.84% respectively from last week [10] - The average price of Vietnamese 3L remains unchanged at 1,875 USD/ton [13] Futures Prices - The average price of all latex (RU) and 20 standard rubber (NR) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 15,342.5 yuan/ton and 12,390 yuan/ton, up 0.54% and 0.69% respectively from last week [14] - The average prices for the same products in 2024 are 18,746 yuan/ton and 14,351 yuan/ton, down 18.16% and 13.67% compared to the same period last year [14] - The average price of RSS3 futures on the Singapore Exchange is 201.6 cents/kg, down 3.63% from last week; TSR20 futures average price is 172.7 cents/kg, up 0.7% from last week [17] - The average price of RSS3 futures on the Japan Exchange is 311 yuan/kg, up 1.9% from last week [18]