1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,650 - 12,430 in the short - term. The supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remains high, with an increase in both producer and trader inventories. Although short - term production profit has been significantly compressed, there are no signs of supply reduction. The downstream demand is weak as terminal users lack the willingness to stock up at high prices. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly, with some semi - steel tire enterprises maintaining a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, while all - steel tire enterprises still control production to manage inventory [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 11,915 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton. The main contract position is 93,726, with a week - on - week increase of 2,724 [2]. - The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with no change. The total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 8,130 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different producers in various regions has decreased. For example, the price in Shandong from Qilu Petrochemical and Daqing Petrochemical is 11,550 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 150 and 100 yuan/ton respectively. The price in Guangdong from Maoming Petrochemical is 11,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 315 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 330 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 64.92 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 0.98 dollars/barrel. The price of WTI crude oil is 60.36 dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.1 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 710 dollars/ton, with no change. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 549 dollars/ton, with an increase of 0.5 dollars/ton. The price of butadiene CFR China is 1,180 dollars/ton, with no change. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change. The capacity utilization rate is 69.42%, with a decrease of 1.89 percentage points [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 44,600 tons, with an increase of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.91%, with a decrease of 0.66 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a decrease of 0.75 million tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.68%, with an increase of 0.53 percentage points. The weekly production profit is - 386 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 721 yuan/ton [2]. - The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.49 million tons, with an increase of 0.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.50%. The producer inventory is 26,900 tons, and the trader inventory is 8,040 tons, with an increase of 1,270 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.39%, with an increase of 8.5 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.52%, with an increase of 7.5 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,301 million pieces, and the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,831 million pieces, with an increase of 663 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.1 days, with an increase of 1.48 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.92 days, with an increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. With the stable production of overhauled enterprises, the output increased significantly compared with last week, and the foreign trade orders of some semi - steel tire enterprises increased, boosting the capacity utilization rate [2]. - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, an increase of 1.35 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points compared with the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points compared with the same period last year [2]. - As of January 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.49 million tons, an increase of 0.18 million tons compared with the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 5.50% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the non - tapping period, while the Thai producing areas are still in the peak production period. The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The inventory in bonded and general trade warehouses has both increased, with the total accumulation rate showing little change compared to the previous period. African rubber is the main type of overseas shipments arriving at the port. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The general trade inventory accumulation rate has narrowed. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly month - on - month. The short - term operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall device scheduling is expected to remain stable. There is still a phenomenon of production control in all - steel tire enterprises to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,745 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,615 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 55 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 181,112 lots, up 2,136 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 62,058 lots, down 1,666 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 47,357 lots, down 1,794 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,803 lots, up 357 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 109,870 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 55,742 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,880 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,875 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 870 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,161 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 546 yuan/ton, down 144 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 59.59 Thai baht/kg, down 0.66 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.52 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.12%, down 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.04%, up 0.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.68%, down 0.4 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.67%, down 0.41 percentage points [2] Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2]

Market Overview - The rubber sector experienced a slight increase of 0.05% on January 21, with Kexin New Source leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.12, up 0.7% [1] Top Performers in Rubber Sector - Kexin New Source (300731) closed at 62.84, with a significant increase of 13.23%, trading volume of 189,700 shares, and a transaction value of 1.151 billion [1] - Fengwu Co., Ltd. (301459) rose by 3.29% to 53.30, with a trading volume of 48,600 shares and a transaction value of 254 million [1] - Zhen'an Technology (300767) increased by 2.38% to 20.61, with a trading volume of 69,700 shares and a transaction value of 142 million [1] Other Notable Stocks - Haida Co., Ltd. (300320) saw a 1.69% increase to 10.20, with a trading volume of 123,900 shares and a transaction value of 126 million [1] - Litong Technology (920225) and Quicheng Co., Ltd. (605183) both increased by 1.50% to 33.15 and 21.68 respectively [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The rubber sector experienced a net outflow of 85.0415 million from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 140 million [2][3] - Kexin New Source had a main fund net inflow of 19.1267 million, but also faced a significant outflow from speculative funds [3] Summary of Individual Stock Fund Flows - Yanggu Huatai (300121) had a main fund net inflow of 19.753 million, but also saw outflows from both speculative and retail investors [3] - Fengwu Co., Ltd. (301459) had a main fund net inflow of 10.3871 million, with a net outflow from speculative funds [3]

化工日报 | 2026-01-21 我国12月天然橡胶进口量继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15620元/吨，较前一日变动-125元/吨；NR主力合约12550元/吨，较前一日变动-105 元/吨；BR主力合约11585元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15400元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14750元/吨，较前一 日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1880美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11700元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动-100元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 | 品种 | 点评 周二油价收涨，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.90 美元至 60.34 美 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶，涨幅 1.51%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘上涨 0.98 美元至 64.92 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.53%。SC2603 以 442.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 4 元/桶， | | | | 涨幅为 0.91%。特朗普以征收关税为筹码，威胁若不交出格陵兰 | | | | 岛就对多个欧洲国家采取关税措施，其争夺格陵兰岛的强硬行径 | | | | 引发金融市场震荡。对于美国收购格陵兰岛的企图持反对态度的 | | | 原油 | 欧洲多国领导人，对特朗普的关税威胁表示强烈抵制，并警告称 | 震荡 | | | 若美方实施关税措施，他们将予以反击。天气方面，本周晚些时 | | | | 候到下周将有寒冷天气席卷美国，这包括进入德克萨斯州的霜冻 | | | | 气温，昨天夜盘气价大幅拉升，原油亦担忧天气而呈现反弹。从 | | | | 时间窗口来看，需关注在严寒天气的持续性，以及是否引发冻井 | | | | 2 现象，预计 月初天 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses various sectors including AR technology, cross-border e-commerce, online travel agencies (OTA), human resources, the pork industry, rubber market, home appliances, and the food and beverage sector. Key Points and Arguments AR and E-commerce - 康耐特 (Kangnate) collaborates with 歌尔光学 (Goer) to expand AR business, expecting a net profit growth of over 30% by 2025 due to supply chain synergy [1] - 小商品城 (Small Commodity City) and other companies have made progress in AI-enhanced cross-border e-commerce, with Yiwu market's export growth projected at around 25% and store order growth exceeding 30% [1][2] Online Travel Agencies (OTA) - AI technology significantly improves efficiency in OTA platforms, with 携程 (Ctrip) resolving 80% of inquiries through AI customer service, leading to lower commission rates [3][4] - The overall commission rate for domestic OTAs is currently half that of international giants [4] Human Resources - AI has automated recruitment processes, reducing hiring cycles from 45 days to 15 days, enhancing job matching accuracy [4] Pork Industry - Current pork prices have risen to approximately 13 RMB per kilogram, with expectations to stabilize around 12 RMB post-holiday, indicating a potential bottoming out of prices [6] Rubber Market - The rubber market shows signs of recovery with inventory levels normalizing; future price increases are anticipated if production can meet demand by December 2025 [7] Home Appliances - AI technology is creating new product categories in home appliances, such as AI glasses and 3D printing devices, which have long-term growth potential [8][9] - Major companies like 美的 (Midea) and 海尔 (Haier) are recommended for their strong market positions and potential for increased overseas market share [10] Food and Beverage Sector - The restaurant supply chain is performing well, with a focus on companies with strong pricing power and B2B customization, such as 颐海国际 (Yihai International) and 千禾味业 (Qianhe Flavoring) [11] - In the snack sector, companies like 盐津铺子 (Yanjinpuzi) and 卫龙 (Weilong) are highlighted for their strong performance and market strategies [12] Liquor Industry - The liquor sector is expected to see a rebound due to limited stock price declines and potential for short-term recovery, with a focus on mid-tier brands like 金水源 (Jinshuiyuan) and 迎驾贡 (Yingjiagong) [13] Additional Important Insights - The policy environment is favorable for service consumption, with extended holiday periods expected to boost sectors like tourism and retail [5] - Investment opportunities may arise from mergers and acquisitions, as well as emerging consumer markets such as trendy toys and sports [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar in the agricultural, forestry and livestock sector is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] - The investment rating for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the external market of raw sugar is weak, affected by supply pressure from Thailand and India, and may maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. The domestic sugar market is calm, and technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar is weak. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [1] - For rubber series, natural rubber continues to be weak with insufficient support, and attention should be paid to weather and new policies. Synthetic rubber has a complex situation with both positive and negative factors, and the market may oscillate and consolidate [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Quotes - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5183 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.16%, and the night - session closed at 5188 yuan/ton. The closing price of SR609 contract was 5200 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.14%, and the night - session closed at 5201 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5283 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5290 - 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5150 - 5190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5700 - 5900 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Brazil exported 143.66 million tons of sugar and honey in the first three weeks of January, a 9.09% increase from the same period last year, with an average daily export volume of 13.06 million tons [1] - As of January 17, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a 16.09% decrease from the same period last year. The sugar content in sugar - cane was 11.95%, a 0.08% increase. The sugar - production rate was 9.790%, a 0.024% decrease. The sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a 16.3% decrease [1] - The white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 14439, a daily increase of 313 [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the long - term short position of SR605 and pay attention to the range of 5100 - 5230 [1] Rubber Series Market Quotes - As of January 20, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.79%. The closing price of NR2603 contract was 12550 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.83%. The closing price of BR2603 contract was 11585 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.17% [5] Important Information - The price of raw - material glue in Thailand was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup - lump was 51.8 Thai baht/kg (- 0.38%). The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13200 yuan/ton [5] - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade areas in Qingdao was 5.849 million tons, a 2.94% increase from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 995,000 tons, a 6.42% increase, and the general - trade inventory was 4.854 million tons, a 2.26% increase [5] - The price of whole - latex was 15400 yuan/ton, a 0.65% decrease. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1880 US dollars/ton, a 1.05% decrease, equivalent to 13161 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14750 yuan/ton, a 0.67% decrease [5] - The price difference between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20. The price difference between mixed - standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 870 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 9050 - 9150 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 11550 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 11900 yuan/ton [5] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the support near the lower moving average for the rubber series in the near term, and the medium - and long - term strategy is still mainly to buy at low prices [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-21 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧仍在，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧仍在，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] - For methanol, with low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] - For urea, due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] - For rubber, expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] - For PVC, in the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] - For pure benzene and styrene, it is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] - For polyethylene, although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] - For polypropylene, in the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] - For PX, expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] - For PTA, expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, or 1.27%, at 437.00 yuan/barrel. Chinese crude oil weekly data showed inventory accumulation. Crude oil arrival inventory increased by 5.70 million barrels to 210.81 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.90 million barrels to 92.37 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.00 million barrels to 95.56 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 2.90 million barrels to 187.93 million barrels [1] - **Strategy View**: Take profit on heavy oil cracks and buy crude oil on dips within the shale oil break - even cost range [1] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices showed changes, with Jiangsu down 13 yuan/ton, Lunan down 5 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract decreased by 27.00 yuan/ton to 2206 yuan/ton, and MTO profit increased by 64 yuan [1][2] - **Strategy View**: With low current valuation and an improving outlook next year, it has the feasibility of buying on dips despite short - term negative pressure [2] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices changed, with Shandong down 20 yuan/ton, Henan down 10 yuan/ton, etc. The main contract increased by 3 yuan/ton to 1775 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 25 yuan/ton [4] - **Strategy View**: Due to the opening of the import window and the expected increase in production at the end of January, take profit on rallies [5] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices fluctuated weakly with a technical bearish signal. Bulls and bears had different views. Tire factory operating rates changed, and the total social inventory of natural rubber in China increased. Spot prices of related products also changed [7][8][9] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to continue to decline after consolidation, maintain a short - term short - selling mindset if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [10] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 6 yuan to 4807 yuan, and the basis, 5 - 9 spread, etc. changed. Cost - end prices were stable, and the overall operating rate was 79.6%. Factory and social inventories changed [12] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, electricity price expectations and export rush support it, but in the medium term, adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies before substantial production cuts in the industry [13] Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, while styrene spot prices rose and futures prices fell. Supply - side operating rates and inventories changed, as did demand - side operating rates [15] - **Strategy View**: It is advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter [16] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6640 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6625 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate increased, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased [18] - **Strategy View**: Although the futures price is falling, the overall inventory may decline from a high level, and the price may be supported [19] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 6550 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and inventories decreased. The downstream average operating rate decreased slightly [20] - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, there is no prominent contradiction, and in the long - term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [21] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 126 yuan to 7232 yuan, and the CFR price rose 9 dollars to 888 dollars. PX and PTA operating rates changed, and import and inventory data were reported [22] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil in the medium term [23] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 114 yuan to 5144 yuan, and the spot price rose 35 yuan to 5015 yuan. PTA and downstream operating rates changed, and inventory decreased. Processing fees increased [25] - **Strategy View**: Expect it to enter the Spring Festival stock - building stage, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 81 yuan to 3661 yuan, and the spot price fell 36 yuan to 3601 yuan. Supply - side operating rates changed, and downstream operating rates decreased. Import and inventory data were reported, and cost - end prices changed [29] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and in the medium term, expect further valuation compression without further domestic production cuts [30]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main - producing areas are in the off - season, while the Thai production area is still in the peak season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory increases. The overall inventory accumulation amplitude has little change compared to the previous period. African rubber accounts for most of the overseas ship - to - port arrivals. The total inventory keeps increasing, and the bonded warehouse continues to accumulate inventory. The downstream enterprises' sentiment of stocking up at low prices has improved, and the total outbound volume has increased month - on - month. The general trade inventory accumulation amplitude has narrowed. In the short term, some tire enterprises are expected to stock up at low prices, and the outbound volume is expected to increase slightly. - In terms of demand, last week, as the production scheduling of maintenance enterprises gradually stabilized, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, supported by foreign trade orders, the operating rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high, and the overall production scheduling is expected to be basically stable. For all - steel tire enterprises, there is still a phenomenon of production control to control inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,000 yuan in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,500 - 13,250 yuan in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,550 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,070 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract are 178,976 lots, down 7,467 lots; the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract are 63,724 lots, down 2,101 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 45,563 lots, up 2,214 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber are - 8,160 lots, up 2,031 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 109,870 tons, down 20 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 56,750 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,900 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,895 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,850 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,800 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 145 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 895 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,280 yuan/ton, down 67 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 625 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60.25 Thai baht/kg, down 0.05 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.92 Thai baht/kg, up 0.27 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57 Thai baht/kg, down 1 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 12 US dollars/ton, down 12 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, an increase of 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, an increase of 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 46.1 days, up 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 47.92 days, up 0.56 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.17%, up 0.07 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.88%, down 0.27 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.08%, up 0.26 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.08%, up 0.24 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of the future (January 18 - 24, 2026), the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In most areas north of the equator, including western Malaysia and southern Indonesia, the rainfall was at a low level, slightly increasing the impact on rubber tapping. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, an increase of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of Qingdao's natural rubber sample bonded warehouses increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [2].