Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly, with Brent in the range of 68 - 70 USD/barrel. Medium - term outlook is bearish due to expected oversupply after the 4th quarter [2]. - Asphalt: The unilateral price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the cracking spread is expected to be strong. The BU main contract is expected to trade between 3500 - 3650 [5]. - LPG: The PG price is expected to be weak due to sufficient supply and low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [9]. - Natural gas: US natural gas prices are expected to rise, while European natural gas prices are expected to oscillate [9][10]. - Fuel oil: High - sulfur fuel oil has some demand support, but the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - PX: Expected to follow the cost side and oscillate in the short term [13]. - PTA: Expected to oscillate and consolidate, with attention to device changes [14]. - Ethylene glycol: Supply is gradually returning, putting pressure on prices, and expected to oscillate and consolidate [17]. - Short - fiber: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate [19]. - PET bottle chips: Expected to follow the raw material side and oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Styrene: Expected to oscillate in the short term due to supply and demand changes [27]. - PVC: In the second half of the year, it is in a pattern of oversupply, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [30]. - Caustic soda: Short - term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - Plastic and PP: Fundamental is weak, and prices are expected to be bearish in the medium and short term [32]. - Glass: Short - term focus on production and sales, medium - term focus on cost reduction and plant cold - repair [35]. - Soda ash: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, with attention to policy trends [38]. - Methanol: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with attention to the evolution of the Middle East situation [39]. - Urea: Expected to be weak in the short term, with attention to export policies [43]. - Corrugated paper: Overall in a weak pattern, with some price increases expected [44]. - Offset paper: In a situation of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be stable [45]. - Logs: It is recommended to wait and see for the near - month contract, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [48]. - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread [52]. - Butadiene rubber: Try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically [55]. - Pulp: Try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract [57]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: WTI2508 closed at 66.38 USD/barrel, down 0.14 USD/barrel (- 0.21%); Brent2509 closed at 68.52 USD/barrel, down 0.19 USD/barrel (- 0.28%); SC main contract 2509 closed at 507 CNY/barrel [1]. - Related News: Trump's attitude towards Powell affected the market; the Fed's economic report indicated cost pressure; EIA data showed changes in US oil inventories and production [1]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - narrow - range oscillation; arbitrage - gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options - wait and see [2]. Asphalt - Market Review: BU2509 closed at 3612 points (- 0.14%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3433 points (- 0.17%) at night [3]. - Related News: Prices in different regions showed different trends, affected by factors such as demand and supply [3][4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - high - level oscillation; arbitrage - asphalt - crude oil spread is strong; options - wait and see [6]. LPG - Market Review: PG2508 closed at 4072 (- 0.88%) at night; PG2509 closed at 3988 (- 0.77%) at night [6]. - Related News: Prices in different regions had different trends [6][7]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - weak operation [9]. Natural Gas - Market Review: TTF closed at 34.809 (+ 1.06%), HH closed at 3.551 (+ 0.79%), JKM closed at 12.475 (+ 1.42%) [9]. - Related News: US natural gas inventory increased, supply and demand changed [9]. - Trading Strategy: HH unilateral - buy on dips; TTF unilateral - oscillate [10]. Fuel Oil - Market Review: FU09 closed at 2855 (- 0.56%) at night; LU09 closed at 3568 (- 2.22%) at night [10]. - Related News: Changes in fuel oil inventories and trading volume [11]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see; arbitrage - wait and see [12]. PX - Market Review: PX2509 main contract closed at 6716 (+ 28/+ 0.42%), and 6684 (- 32/- 0.48%) at night [12]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [13]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [13]. PTA - Market Review: TA509 main contract closed at 4706 (+ 10/+ 0.21%), and 4696 (- 10/- 0.21%) at night [13]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [14]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [16]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: EG2509 main contract closed at 4351 (+ 29+0.67%), and 4349 (- 2/- 0.05%) at night [16]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales, equipment shutdown [16]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [18]. Short - fiber - Market Review: PF2508 main contract closed at 6356 (- 12/- 0.19%) during the day, and 6338 (- 18/- 0.28%) at night [19]. - Related News: Decline in polyester sales [19]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [21]. PET Bottle Chips - Market Review: PR2509 main contract closed at 5886 (+ 16/+ 0.27%), and 5876 (- 10/- 0.17%) at night [20]. - Related News: Stable factory quotes, average market transactions [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [24]. Styrene - Market Review: BZ2503 main contract closed at 6166 (+ 22/+ 0.36%) during the day, and 6151 (- 15/- 0.24%) at night; EB2508 main contract closed at 7343 (+ 3/+ 0.04%) during the day, and 7304 (- 39/- 0.53%) at night [24]. - Related News: Changes in port inventories, equipment shutdown [24]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate and consolidate; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Market Review: PVC prices declined, and caustic soda prices were stable [27][30]. - Related News: Changes in PVC and caustic soda inventories, new device production expectations [30]. - Trading Strategy: PVC - bearish in the medium and short term; caustic soda - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [31]. Plastic and PP - Market Review: LLDPE prices declined in some regions, and PP prices had slight changes [32]. - Related News: Changes in maintenance ratios [32]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - bearish in the medium and short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [33]. Glass - Market Review: Glass futures 09 contract closed at 1070 CNY/ton (- 1/- 0.09%), and 1078 CNY/ton (+ 8/+ 0.75%) at night [34]. - Related News: Market conditions in different regions, changes in deep - processing orders [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - pay attention to logical conversion; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [36]. Soda Ash - Market Review: Soda ash futures 09 contract closed at 1208 CNY/ton (- 6/- 0.5%), and 1215 CNY/ton (+ 7/+ 0.6%) at night [37]. - Related News: Equipment operation, price trends [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - prices are expected to be strong, pay attention to policy trends; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [38]. Methanol - Market Review: Methanol futures closed at 2362 (- 14/- 0.59%) at night [39]. - Related News: Changes in production enterprise signing volume [39]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [40]. Urea - Market Review: Urea futures oscillated and closed at 1733 (+ 2/+ 0.12%) [40]. - Related News: Changes in production and inventory, new Indian tender prices [43]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - oscillate weakly in the short term; arbitrage - wait and see; options - sell call options on rebounds [44]. Corrugated Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable with some increases, cost and demand situations [44]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Offset Paper - Related News: Market prices were stable, supply and demand situations [45]. - Trading Strategy: No trading strategy provided. Logs - Related News: Price changes, project funds, and market conditions [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for the near - month contract; arbitrage - pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; options - wait and see [49]. Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Market Review: RU main 09 contract closed at 14525 (+ 25/+ 0.17%); NR main 09 contract closed at 12485 (- 5/- 0.04%) [49]. - Related News: Changes in export and consumption data [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - wait and see for RU and NR main contracts; arbitrage - hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread; options - wait and see [52]. Butadiene Rubber - Market Review: BR main 09 contract closed at 11405 (- 45/- 0.39%) [53]. - Related News: Changes in production and shipping index [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting the BR main contract opportunistically; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [55]. Pulp - Market Review: SP main 09 contract closed at 5242, unchanged from the previous day [55]. - Related News: New product launch by Starbucks [56]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral - try shorting a small amount of the SP main contract; arbitrage - wait and see; options - wait and see [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the new - year cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term, although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and the medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies. The import volume in July - August is expected to increase, which will limit the upside space [5] - The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1436, up 29 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1452, up 32 from the previous day [1] - As of July 13, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report raised the global cotton production and ending stocks, with a bearish adjustment direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be in a loose supply pattern. The USDA raised the new US cotton production, and the new - year US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the short - term expectation of tight supply at the end of the year supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, the new cotton is growing well, and the demand in the off - season is weak, so the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, the new - year cotton market will be in a pattern of oversupply, and the medium - to - long term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,802 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 258, up 15 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 103, up 15 from the previous day [2] - As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 206.198 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the ATR of cane was 122.19 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6.14 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, a year - on - year increase of 2.33%; the cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.81%; the cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.25% [3] Market Analysis - International: The current market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. The long - term raw sugar price is under downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term oversold rebound [4] - Domestic: The sales and production progress of domestic sugar in this sugar - crushing season is fast, and the industrial inventory has dropped to a historical low, making the spot price relatively firm. However, the rebound of the import profit after the quota due to the weakening of the external market, and the expected increase in imports in July - August will limit the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range. It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range. The medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,262 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 + 688, down 18 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 - 47, down 18 from the previous day [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with some pulp types showing price increases due to sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The prices of some softwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Northeast China, Henan, and Hebei dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the prices of some hardwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Northeast China, Hebei, and Henan increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton; the supply - demand of imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp changed little, and the prices were stable [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year in the first half of 2025, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in hardwood pulp imports was relatively large. The import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. The domestic demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures contract 09 was 5,228 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,244 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase [7]. - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,070 - 6,700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,920 - 5,950 yuan/ton [7]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Chile's Arauco announced its July offer. Yinxing had completed transactions with no new offers, and the net price of Uruguay's hardwood pulp New Star was $500/ton [8]. - According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in May decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6% year - on - year [8]. - According to Europulp data, the total inventory of wood pulp in European ports in May increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year [8]. - China's pulp imports in June were 3.03 million tons, a 0.5% increase month - on - month and a 16.3% increase year - on - year [8]. - As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.45% month - on - month, with only the inventory at Gaolan Port decreasing compared to the previous week. The overall shipment speed was stable [8]. - Downstream terminal orders were insufficient, and the prices of base paper were generally stable with some individual declines [8]. Operation Suggestions - The absolute price of pulp is currently at a relatively low level. The downside space due to weak fundamentals is limited, and a new round of upward movement depends on the improvement of terminal demand and the restoration of industry profits. In the short term, it will maintain a wide - range volatile operation at a low level [8]. 3. Industry News - On July 11, the second - phase chemi - thermomechanical pulp (CTMP) project's Line 2 of Liansheng Pulp and Paper Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation. It took only 4 hours and 8 minutes to connect the entire system from feeding, and after 20 hours of system optimization after startup, the quality of the main pulp reached the requirements of the paper machine production line. The CTMP from Line 2 has been used in the PM1 white cardboard production line of Zhangpu Base [9]. - The successful commissioning of Line 2 of the second - phase CTMP project not only marks another major progress in Liansheng Pulp and Paper's Zhangpu Base's annual production of 3.9 million tons of forest - pulp - paper integration but also further strengthens the company's flexible self - supply capacity of raw materials [9]. - In the Zhangpu Base project with an annual output of 3.9 million tons, Valmet supplied a BCTMP production line, including various pulping process technologies such as wood chip washing, pre - impregnation systems, high - consistency refining, low - consistency refining, bleaching, high - consistency screening systems, and twin - roll washers, as well as engineering, procurement, on - site management (EPS), training, on - site services, and related spare parts [9]. 4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery price differences, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and price differences of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, prices and price differences of coated paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [7][15][17][19][26][28][30]

Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Weekly Report (Week 2, July 2025) [1] - Analyst: Pan Shengjie from the Commodity Research Institute [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The pulp market fundamentals are stabilizing [3] - The supply - demand relationship in the pulp market has not improved significantly, and weak demand restricts the rebound of pulp prices [4] - Global pulp market shows a growth trend in the past five months, especially the domestic market [4] Summary by Directory Pulp Market Fundamentals - This week, the spot prices of imported wood pulp varied. Imported softwood pulp prices rebounded from the bottom, narrowing the decline of the average price; imported hardwood pulp prices rose due to non - standard basis quotes and low - price reluctance to sell; the supply - demand relationship did not improve significantly, and the demand was weak; imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp prices followed the decline of imported softwood pulp prices [4] - From the monthly hardwood pulp balance data, the current fundamentals are favorable for the relative strength of hardwood pulp. The cost support for the hardwood - softwood price spread in July has improved [4] - Trump's new tariff policies push the US economic policy uncertainty index to a record high. The US tariff policy on Brazil may increase Brazil's hardwood pulp exports to other regions and is negative for the basis of Brazilian hardwood pulp. The US tariff on Canada is expected to be negative for the basis of Canadian softwood pulp [4] - As of May, global pulp shipments decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Softwood pulp shipments decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, while hardwood pulp shipments increased by 3.1% year - on - year. However, the cumulative shipments in 2025 still had a nearly 10% year - on - year increase. The global pulp industry's operating rate was close to 90% for the second consecutive month in May, but it also brought inventory pressure. In May, softwood pulp inventory increased by 5 days to 46 days, and hardwood pulp inventory increased by 4 days to 51 days. The domestic paper - making enterprises' finished - product inventory decreased by 0.2% year - on - year in May, the first year - on - year decrease since April 2024 [4] Impact of Softwood Supply on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, European bleached softwood kraft pulp inventory decreased by 238,000 tons month - on - month, consumption increased by 269,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The average value in the past 12 months increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 6 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [11] - Domestic softwood chip imports increased for two consecutive months, reaching 21,000 tons (equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp). Softwood pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months, reaching 821,000 tons. The total long - fiber imports were 832,000 tons, with a 4.3% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 6 months, and the decline has been narrowing for 7 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [11] Impact of Hardwood Supply on Hardwood - Softwood Price Spread - As of May 2025, hardwood chip imports increased by 1.289 million tons month - on - month, equivalent to 644,000 tons of pulp; hardwood pulp imports increased by 1.309 million tons month - on - month. Softwood chip imports increased for two consecutive months, reaching 21,000 tons, equivalent to 11,000 tons of pulp; softwood pulp imports decreased for two consecutive months, reaching 821,000 tons. The short - fiber to long - fiber import ratio was 2.35 times, with a 10.5% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 4 months, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood price spread [18] - The use of hardwood pulp in domestic paper decreased by 2.224 million tons month - on - month, and the use of softwood pulp decreased for three consecutive months, reaching 523,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times, with an 8.0% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 9 months, and the growth has been expanding for 8 months, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood price spread [18] Impact of International Pulp and Paper Trade on SP Unilateral - As of May 2025, domestic pulp import value increased by $1.906 billion month - on - month, and the US pulp import value decreased by $308 million month - on - month in April. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion, with a 3.6% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been expanding for 2 months, which is negative for SP unilateral but with limited impact [23] - The total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million, with a 5.4% year - on - year decrease in the cumulative value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been expanding for 2 months, which is negative for SP unilateral with full impact [23] Impact of Port Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of July 11, 2025, the total inventory of four ports and warehouse receipts was 2.378 million tons, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase, and continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 9 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [29] Impact of Port Inventory on Hardwood - Softwood Price Spread - As of July 11, 2025, the ratio of the four - port inventory to warehouse receipt inventory increased for four consecutive months, reaching 8.94 times. The average value in the past 6 months increased by 60.7% year - on - year, and the marginal inventory decreased for 3 months, which is relatively negative for hardwood pulp [34] Impact of Manufacturing PMI on SP Unilateral - As of June 2025, China's manufacturing PMI increased for two consecutive months, reaching 49.7 points, with a 0.2% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average value, and the growth has been narrowing for 3 months. The US manufacturing PMI increased month - on - month, reaching 49.0 points, with a 1.3% year - on - year increase in the 12 - month average value, and the growth has been narrowing for 10 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [42] Impact of Domestic Paper Production and Inventory on SP Unilateral - As of April 2025, domestic paper industry electricity consumption decreased month - on - month, reaching 838 million kWh, with a 0.6% year - on - year increase in the cumulative value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 9 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [50] - Domestic paper industry finished - product inventory increased for four consecutive months, reaching 77.57 billion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and continuous marginal inventory accumulation for 13 months, which is negative for SP unilateral [50] Impact of US Economic Policy and International Oil Price on SP Unilateral - As of July 2025, the US economic policy uncertainty index increased month - on - month, reaching 435.3 points, with an 82.8% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 12 months, and the growth has been narrowing. Brent crude oil price decreased month - on - month, reaching $69.1 per barrel, with a 20.9% year - on - year decrease in the average value in the past 3 months, and the decline has been narrowing, with marginal strengthening, which is positive for SP price [56] Impact of International Trade and US Dollar Index on SP Unilateral - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion, with a 2.1% year - on - year increase in the cumulative value in the past 6 months, and the growth has been narrowing for 2 months, which is positive for SP valuation [57] - In June, the real broad - based US dollar index decreased for five consecutive months, reaching 114.9 points, with a 5.7% year - on - year increase in the average value in the past 9 months, and continuous marginal increase for 16 months, which is negative for SP unilateral. The general cycle of the US dollar index is 22 months [63]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term oil price is expected to remain firm and maintain a volatile pattern, but it is bearish in the medium term. The asphalt price may remain relatively low, the liquefied gas price is expected to be weak, the natural gas price in the US is expected to rise while that in Europe is under pressure. For various chemical products, most are expected to show a pattern of shock, with some being bearish or bullish in the short - term [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - For forest products and paper products, the market is generally in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices showing different trends of stability, decline or shock [38][39][40][41][42]. - For rubber products, the market is affected by multiple factors, and different types of rubber have different investment suggestions, mainly focusing on waiting and seeing [44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.33, up $0.40/barrel, a 0.59% increase; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.15, up $0.57/barrel, an 0.82% increase. SC2508 contract rose 8.6 to 509.9 yuan/barrel, and 6.4 to 516.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump expanded the global trade war, announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Japan and South Korea will negotiate with the US to ease the impact of tariff hikes. EIA raised the global oil production growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The near - term spread of crude oil is strong, Saudi Arabia raised the official price, and the refining profit has recovered. The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound thinking, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3629 points (+1.11%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3439 points (+1.48%) at night. The spot price in Shandong was 3580 - 4070 yuan/ton, 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton in East China, and 3610 - 3730 yuan/ton in South China [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable. Rainy season affected demand, and the supply was sufficient [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is volatile. The supply - demand is weak in the near - term, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased. The asphalt price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and the cracking spread is expected to remain high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shock; the asphalt - crude oil spread is stable; wait and see for options [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4170 (-0.33%) at night, PG2509 closed at 4073 (-0.12%) at night. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends [5]. - **Related News**: The price in South China declined, that in Shandong was stable with partial small drops, and that in East China generally declined [5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply decreased, the demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical fields, and the inventory decreased. The fundamentals of liquefied gas are loose, and the price is expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak operation [7]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, demand was strong, and LNG exports increased, so the price is expected to rise. European natural gas prices fell due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH on dips; shock for TTF [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2992 (+0.84%) at night, LU09 closed at 3709 (+1.28%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market showed different spreads [8]. - **Related News**: India HPCL offered HSFO, there were attacks in the Red Sea, a US refinery had problems, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts fell, supply may increase but is affected by geopolitical factors, and demand has seasonal support. Low - sulfur supply increased and demand had no specific driver [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near - term and consider going long on FU91 positive spreads on dips [10]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6696 (+0.18%) during the day and 6718 (+0.33%) at night. The spot price rose, and PXN decreased [11]. - **Related News**: A refinery's crude distillation unit caught fire, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The social inventory of PX is low, supply is tight, and Asian PX operating rates declined. Downstream demand will increase, and PX is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4710 (0%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [11][12]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and a PTA device in South China returned to normal operation [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis of PTA declined, some devices were under maintenance or had load changes, downstream demand was weak, and inventory accumulation was expected [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4267 (-0.28%) during the day and 4270 (+0.07%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and some ethylene glycol devices restarted [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of some domestic and foreign devices increased, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6518 (0%) during the day and 6528 (+0.15%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [15][16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber devices reduced production or were under maintenance, the processing margin expanded, and the processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text, but similar to other products, wait - and - see for arbitrage and options can be inferred [17]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 5866 (-0.10%) during the day and 5876 (+0.17%) at night. The spot market trading was average [17]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle chips was partially lowered [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee of bottle chips strengthened, some devices reduced production or stopped, and the price is expected to follow the raw material side in a shock [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5931 during the day and 5989 (+0.98%) at night. EB2508 closed at 7276 (-0.83%) during the day and 7297 (+0.29%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene decreased, and that of styrene had different ranges [20]. - **Related News**: The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in ports increased, a new styrene device was planned to be tested, and a refinery's device had problems [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and demand is expected to increase. The supply of styrene will increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The price of styrene is under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; long pure benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [22]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in most regions declined, and the price of PP in different regions also showed a downward trend [23]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratio of PE remained unchanged, and that of PP increased slightly [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is large capacity - putting pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand is weak, and the strategy is to short on rallies [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish in the short - and medium - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was in a narrow - range adjustment, and the caustic soda spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [24][25]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was stable, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling had different changes [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC has new capacity - putting pressure, demand is weak, and exports face risks, so the price is under pressure. Caustic soda has a short - term bullish expectation but faces capacity - putting pressure in July - August [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Caustic soda: short - term shock bullish; PVC: short on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, and the spot price was in a weak shock [29]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, the photovoltaic industry had an impact, and the market was generally weak [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of soda ash reached the extreme and then declined, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, price is weak but not likely to fall sharply; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [31]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass decreased in a shock, and the spot price in different regions showed different trends [31][32]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, and the sales in different regions of glass were different [31][32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is in a shock decline, the cost of soda ash decreases, demand has no improvement, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - logic continues, glass is in a weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures price of methanol declined, and the spot price in different regions showed different levels [33][34]. - **Related News**: The signing volume of methanol in Northwest China decreased [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply of methanol increases, domestic supply is loose, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: The futures price of urea increased, and the spot price in different regions increased slightly [36]. - **Related News**: An Indian urea tender had results [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of urea decreased slightly, demand is weak in the domestic market, and the inventory is still high. The Indian tender price is high, which may boost the market in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [38]. Log - **Related News**: The price of some logs in Jiangsu decreased, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China changed, and the freight rate had an upward and downward trend [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need to be considered. The difference in ruler size supports the price, and future交割 details need to be concerned [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait and see for options [40]. Double - Coated Paper - **Related News**: The trading atmosphere of double - coated paper was average, the price was stable, and the supply and demand were both weak [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is stable, demand is limited, and the cost of wood pulp decreases, which eases the cost pressure on paper mills [40]. Corrugated Paper - **Related News**: The price of corrugated and box - board paper was generally stable with some weakness, the price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the supply and demand of raw materials had different situations [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the profit is expected to be slightly repaired [41]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp was in a weak shock, and the spot price of different types of pulp had different trends [42]. - **Related News**: A large - scale investment project in the pulp and paper industry was planned [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The economic indicators in different regions are favorable, but the US dollar index is unfavorable to the pulp price [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the SP09 contract; hold the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Numbered Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of RU, NR, and BR increased, and the spot price of different types of rubber showed different levels [44][45][47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [45][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The export of Chinese tires and the US auto order data are favorable to the RU price [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the RU09 and NR09 contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss; wait and see for options [46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of BR increased, and the spot price in different regions had different levels [47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices is unfavorable to the BR - RU spread, and the US rubber and plastic product import data is slightly favorable to the BR price [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the BR09 contract; consider the BR2509 - NR2509 spread and set a stop - loss; wait and see for the BR2509 call option [48][49].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 09 contract was 5080 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5074 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.91% [7] - Shandong Wood Pulp Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp was 5220 - 6750 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 6100 yuan/ton [7] - Chilean Arauco's June Quotes: Yinxing was 740 US dollars/ton, and Jinxing was 620 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous quote [7] - Supply - side Data: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6%. In May, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in May were 302 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [7] - Inventory Data: As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 3.11% month - on - month, with only Qingdao Port's inventory decreasing compared to the previous week, and the overall shipment speed was stable [7] - Downstream Market: The market orders of downstream paper mills had no obvious improvement, and the prices of finished paper remained stable. Currently, the port de - stocking speed was slow, the supply of imported wood pulp market was relatively loose, and it was oscillating in the low - level range [7] Group 3: Industry News - On July 4, Finland's Stora Enso announced that its Kemi pulp mill and the adjacent paper mill would resume production after weeks of maintenance and repair. Production would resume in stages, and the factory startup would take about two days. During the five - week annual maintenance shutdown, its subsidiary changed the digester damaged in the explosion in March 2024. The new Kemi pulp mill, put into use in Q4 2023, had the world's largest softwood pulp production line, with an annual production capacity of about 1.5 million tons, including about 1.1 million tons of market pulp [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented various data charts, including pulp spot and futures prices, price spreads, warehouse receipts, and inventory in different regions [14][16][18][25][27][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

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Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]