证券时报·数据宝统计，截至上午10:28，今日沪指涨0.30%，A股成交量607.68亿股，成交金额8174.66亿 元，比上一个交易日减少5.49%。个股方面，2622只个股上涨，其中涨停37只，2527只个股下跌，其中 跌停8只。从申万行业来看，非银金融、国防军工、银行等涨幅最大，涨幅分别为2.42%、1.49%、 0.80%；钢铁、煤炭、美容护理等跌幅最大，跌幅分别为1.57%、1.46%、1.18%。（数据宝） 今日各行业表现（截至上午10:28） | 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 非银金融 | 2.42 | 449.26 | 1.25 | 中银证券 | 8.33 | | 国防军工 | 1.49 | 373.71 | 55.52 | 新光光电 | 11.38 | | 银行 | 0.80 | 139.95 | -7.50 | 齐鲁银行 | 3.88 | | 医药生物 | 0.67 | 713.37 | -24.59 | 尔康制药 | 15.16 | ...

一、证券市场回顾 南财金融终端数据显示，上周（7月21日-7月25日，下同），上证综指周内上涨1.67%，收于3593.66 点，最高3613.02点；深证成指周内上涨2.33%，收于11168.14点，最高11210.91点；创业板指周内上涨 2.76%，收于2340.06点，最高2350.06点。在全球市场中，主要指数均上涨。纳斯达克综指上涨1.02%， 道琼斯工业指数上涨1.26%，标普500上涨1.46%。亚太地区，恒生指数上涨2.27%，日经225指数上涨 4.11%。 二、新股申购情况 上周有3只新股发行，详情见下表： | 股票代码 | 股票简称 | 中购日期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 001221.SZ | 悍高集团 | 20250721 | | 301491.SZ | 汉桑科技 | 20250725 | | 920005.BI | 鼎佳精密 | 20250722 | 三、融资融券情况 沪深两市的融资融券余额为19412.22亿元，其中融资余额19276.34亿元，融券余额135.88亿元。两市融 资融券余额较前一周增加448.09亿元。分市场来看，沪市两融余额为9876. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, in Q2 2025, China's GDP growth rate continued to hold steady, showing positive economic data. Sino-US tariff tensions significantly eased, and the effect of front-loading exports was remarkable. The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements, and rolled out a package of financial policies to stabilize the economy and expectations. Large - scale investment projects in China commenced, and sentiment in the capital market improved. With the money market interest rate remaining low, but risk appetite rising, government bonds are expected to decline [3][72]. - In the stock market, hotspots rotated. As funds spilled over from the banking sector to other heavy - weighted sectors, the strength of stock indices became differentiated. IH shifted to wide - range fluctuations, while IF, IC, and IM may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid correction in the hyped sectors [1][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Part 3.1.1 Stock Index Trend Analysis - From late September 2024 to the National Day, the A - share market rose continuously. After the National Day, it opened high and then fell. In November 2024, the market rebounded slightly, and in mid - December, it declined. Around the New Year's Day in 2025, the stock market had three consecutive negative days, and trading volume shrank to 1 trillion. After the Spring Festival, the market rebounded, and trading volume increased to 2 trillion. In March 2025, the market reached a new high of 5755.58 and then quickly fell. On April 7, there was a sharp single - day decline, with the Guozheng A - share Index dropping by 9.29%. After reaching the lowest point of 4820.80 on April 9, the market rebounded. In May, the market rebounded to 5500 and then fluctuated with shrinking volume. In June, stock market fluctuations weakened, and in late June, the stock index rose continuously driven by the banking stocks. In July, it broke through the high point after the sharp rise on September 24, 2024, and trading volume increased to around 2 trillion [4]. - The four major stock indices showed differentiation. In 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index fell in January, rebounded in February, dropped sharply in April, and then rebounded. In July, it reached a new high of 2824.86 but was lower than the high point on September 24, 2024. The CSI 300 Index also reached a new high in July. The CSI 500 Index filled the gap in July after failing to do so in May. The CSI 1000 Index rose rapidly in July and exceeded all high points since September 24, 2024 [5]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Fluctuations and Premium/Discount Situations - In January 2025, stock index fluctuations further decreased, and in February, there was a significant rebound. In March, there was a slight decline, and in April, there were large - scale fluctuations. During the rapid rebound of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300, the stock index futures of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were at a large discount. Fluctuations decreased in May and June, and in July, there was a further rebound. The long - term contracts of IC and IM gradually returned to normal. The premium/discount of the Shanghai 50 Index dropped to within ±5 points, while the far - month contracts of IC had a discount of over 300 points [15]. 3.1.3 Industry Strength and Weakness Transformation - The CSI 300 Index declined in January 2025, rebounded significantly in February, slightly declined in March, had a single - day sharp decline in April, and then quickly rebounded. It fluctuated at a high level in May and June and rose rapidly in July. In terms of reversal intensity, most sectors showed positive trends, with materials having a reversal intensity of up to 13, and pharmaceuticals and industry exceeding 8. Only the public utilities sector declined, with a decline of only 2% [16][19]. 3.1.4 Industry ALPHA Risk - Return - The tracking of ALPHA risk - return statistics shows that the consistency of the CSI 300 sector's trend has increased. The telecommunications and materials sectors have full - cycle ALPHA. The full - cycle ALPHA values are (0.467%, 0.284%, 0.114%; 0.107%, 0.088%, 0.058%). Most sectors' full - cycle ALPHA values are inconsistent, and the ALPHA values of the industrial, optional, and consumer sectors are negative [23]. 3.2 Government Bond Futures Analysis 3.2.1 Economic Steady Recovery - From 2023 to 2025, GDP growth showed fluctuations but generally maintained a certain level. CPI and PPI data indicated that the economy was in a deflationary state, with industrial PPI remaining negative and the year - on - year decline expanding. Industrial added value increased year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth was relatively stable. The manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI fluctuated, and the non - manufacturing PMI was more affected by policy changes. Consumption growth was unstable [28][35]. 3.2.2 Slightly Rising Monetary投放 Growth Rate - In 2024 and 2025, the amount of new RMB loans fluctuated greatly. The growth rate of M1 first declined and then increased, indicating that the recovery speed of social hot money accelerated. The growth rate of M2 showed a downward trend. The central bank continuously implemented interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the LPR decreased. The yield to maturity of government bonds fluctuated, and the overall trend was downward [43][49]. 3.2.3 Monetary Policy - From 2024 to 2025, the central bank carried out a series of monetary policy operations, including borrowing government bonds, conducting temporary open - market operations, adjusting the LPR, and implementing a package of financial policies in May 2025, which included reducing the reserve requirement ratio, lowering policy interest rates, and increasing the quota of re - loans [50][57].

本周（7月28日—8月3日），中美举行经贸会谈无疑是焦点事件，此外，香港《稳定币条例》将于8月1 日生效。重要数据方面，美联储将公布7月利率决议，非农、GDP等数据也将公布；中国7月PMI数据出 炉。 7月28日(周一) 美国7月达拉斯联储商业活动指数 7月29日 (周二) 国内成品油将开启新一轮调价窗口 美国5月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数同比 美国6月商品贸易帐(亿美元) 7月30日（周三） 法国二季度GDP同比初值 加拿大央行公布利率决议 美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比初值 7月31日（周四） 美联储FOMC公布利率决议 美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会 巴西央行公布利率决议 据新华社消息，中国商务部新闻发言人23日宣布，经中美双方商定，中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总 理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。 日本央行公布利率决议 中国7月官方制造业PMI 中国7月官方非制造业PMI 8月1日（周五） 中国7月财新制造业PMI 美国7月失业率 美国7月非农就业人口变动(万人) 美国7月ISM制造业指数 其他 香港《稳定币条例》将于8月1日生效。 本周超1000亿元市值限售股解禁 ...

Group 1 - In Q2 2025, actively managed equity public funds continued to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in their portfolios rising to 20% [1] - The concentration of holdings among actively managed public funds decreased, indicating a shift towards mid and small-cap stocks in Hong Kong [1] - The investment strategy involved increasing allocations to both growth assets like pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors, as well as dividend-paying assets such as non-bank financials and banks [1] Group 2 - Passive index funds also saw continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with approximately 280 billion yuan flowing in during Q2 2025, although at a slower rate compared to Q1 [2] - The total inflow through the Hong Kong Stock Connect for public funds in the first half of 2025 reached nearly 200 billion yuan, with a projected total for the year between 300 billion and 450 billion yuan [2] - The potential for further inflows remains significant, with an estimated theoretical allocation space of about 300 billion yuan for actively managed public funds [2] Group 3 - The momentum for southbound capital inflows is recovering, suggesting that Hong Kong stocks may outperform A-shares in the second half of the year [3] - The technology sector in Hong Kong is expected to become a key focus, driven by advancements in AI and easing of trade restrictions between China and the US [3] - Other sectors such as high-dividend stocks, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are also highlighted as areas of interest for investment in the latter half of the year [3]

非银金融 2025 年 07 月 27 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 84% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 非银金融 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《券商定增再填一例，继续看好低估 值券商板块机会 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.20 《券商中报预告超预期，继续推荐券 商板块—行业点评报告》-2025.7.15 《险企考核周期再拉长，券商中报超 预期继续推荐—行业周报》-2025.7.13 预定利率调降 50bp 符合预期，交易量站上两万亿 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：预定利率调降 50bp 符合预期，交易量站上两万亿 2季度公募持仓数据看，券商板块仍明显欠配：2025Q2主动型基金重仓股中券商 板块占比0.78% ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model directly extracts factors from industry indices' price-volume and valuation data, updating the factor library at the end of each quarter. It selects the top five industries with the highest multi-factor composite scores for equal-weight allocation on a weekly basis[3][32] - **Model Construction Process**: - Factor extraction is performed on industry indices based on price-volume and valuation data - The factor library is updated quarterly - Weekly rebalancing is conducted, selecting the top five industries with the highest composite scores for equal-weight allocation[3][32] - **Model Evaluation**: The model achieved strong absolute and relative returns but exhibited rapid industry rotation, leading to slight underperformance against the benchmark in the previous week[3][32] 2. Model Name: Absolute Return ETF Simulated Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Asset allocation weights are determined based on recent trends, with stronger-trending assets assigned higher weights. Equity allocation within the portfolio follows the monthly views of an industry rotation model[4][37] - **Model Construction Process**: - Asset classes are weighted based on recent trend strength - Equity allocation is determined by a monthly industry rotation model - The portfolio includes equity ETFs (e.g., dividend, healthcare, metals) and commodity ETFs (e.g., energy, soybean meal)[4][39] - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio demonstrated stable performance with a focus on trend-following and diversification[4][37] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 31.87% - **Annualized Volatility**: 18.18% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.75 - **Maximum Drawdown**: -19.63% - **Calmar Ratio**: 1.62 - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Return**: 28.68% - **Weekly Performance**: 3.03%[35] 2. Absolute Return ETF Simulated Portfolio - **Annualized Return**: 6.53% - **Annualized Volatility**: 3.82% - **Maximum Drawdown**: -4.65% - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.71 - **Calmar Ratio**: 1.41 - **Year-to-Date (YTD) Return**: 5.58% - **Weekly Performance**: 0.33%[38] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Market Intrinsic Momentum Indicators - **Factor Construction Idea**: These indicators measure the internal momentum of the market by analyzing the distribution of individual stock performance[18][19] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Indicator 1**: Daily turnover difference between rising and falling stocks, normalized by total turnover $ \text{Indicator 1} = \frac{\text{Turnover of rising stocks - Turnover of falling stocks}}{\text{Total turnover}} $ - **Indicator 2**: Monthly high-low turnover difference, normalized by total turnover $ \text{Indicator 2} = \frac{\text{Turnover of stocks hitting monthly highs - Turnover of stocks hitting monthly lows}}{\text{Total turnover}} $ - **Indicator 3**: Six-month high-low turnover difference, normalized by total turnover $ \text{Indicator 3} = \frac{\text{Turnover of stocks hitting six-month highs - Turnover of stocks hitting six-month lows}}{\text{Total turnover}} $ - **Indicator 4**: Annual high-low turnover difference, normalized by total turnover $ \text{Indicator 4} = \frac{\text{Turnover of stocks hitting annual highs - Turnover of stocks hitting annual lows}}{\text{Total turnover}} $[18][19] - **Factor Evaluation**: These indicators effectively capture short-term and long-term market strength and provide strong signals for market trends[19] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Market Intrinsic Momentum Indicators - All four indicators showed upward trends in recent periods, aligning with the market's upward trajectory, indicating strong internal momentum supporting the index's rise[19]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that a bullish market atmosphere is forming, but there is significant divergence among investors regarding the level of the bull market. The analysis highlights that in small bull markets, earnings are crucial, while in large bull markets, earnings are not the most important factor [2][7][19] - Since 1995, there have been three significant bull markets (with gains exceeding 150%) occurring in 1996-1997, 2005-2007, and 2014-2015, with only one (2005-2007) coinciding with a nominal GDP upturn. In contrast, smaller bull markets (with gains around 50-100%) also occurred three times, all during nominal GDP upturns [3][8][10] - The relationship between macro liquidity (interest rates) and the level of the stock market bull market is weak. Among the four bull markets since 2005, two experienced rising interest rates (2006-2007, 2009), one saw a decline (2014-2015), and one experienced fluctuations (2019-2021) [3][13][15] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that large bull markets are often catalyzed by policies and stock market funding. Historical data shows that when equity financing scales are lower than the dividends of listed companies, larger bull markets tend to follow. This pattern was observed in 1995, 2005, and 2013, leading to significant bull markets in the subsequent years [3][17][20] - The report suggests that the current market conditions, characterized by weak corporate earnings, positive policy stances, and active thematic opportunities, resemble previous periods that led to comprehensive bull markets. It predicts that as policy expectations increase in the second half of the year, the stock market is likely to enter a main upward trend [19][24][25]

60 只公募基金持有转债规模超 10 亿元。截止 2025Q2，持有转债市值超 10亿元的基金（不包含可转债基金）共有60只，合计持有转债市值1709.87 亿元，环比 25Q1 下降 3.41%，占投资转债公募基金市值的 62.71%；持 有转债市值超 1 亿元的基金（不包含可转债基金）共有 311 只，合计持有 转债市值 2494.35 亿元，环比 25Q1 下降 3.30%，占投资转债公募基金市 值的 91.48%。 固定收益点评 可转债基金持有转债市值环比下降 3.42%，转债仓位和杠杆率均小幅上 升。截止 2025Q2，可转债基金（同花顺开放式基金分类中的可转换债券 型基金）共计 40 只，持有转债市值共计 852.33 亿元，较 2025Q1 下降 30.22 亿元，环比下降 3.42%。可转债仓位由 25Q1 的 84.49%上升至 84.99%，环比上季度上升 0.50pcts。由于转债供需趋紧、权益主题行情不 断，可转债基金的转债仓位继续上行。与此同时，可转债基金资产净值下 降速率高于基金资产总值下降速率，转债基金杠杆率由 137%上升至 142%，增长了 5pcts。 供给减少，基金如何调 ...

（二）券商最新研判 （一）重磅消息 据新华社报道，国务院总理7月26日在上海出席2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 开幕式并致辞。围绕如何把握人工智能公共产品属性、推进人工智能发展和治理，提出三点建议。一是 更加注重普及普惠，充分用好人工智能发展的已有成果。二是更加注重创新合作，力求更多突破性的人 工智能科技硕果。三是更加注重共同治理，确保人工智能在造福人类上最终修成正果。 信达证券：当下市场具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件 牛市重要的驱动力量之一是股市政策驱动股权融资减少。2023年下半年以来，随着股权融资规模的下 降，股市的供需结构也在扭转。当下市场也具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件。 战略上，2025年下半年可能会出现类似2014年下半年的突破，战术上要等待经济或政策的催化。估值位 置偏低、上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，这些很像2013年~2014年年中和2019 年的震荡市，最终的结局大概率是更全面的牛市。战术层面，之前突破的临界点均有政策和经济高频数 据催化，目前需要等待观察1~2个月。 行业配置方面，稳健策略包括非银、银行，指数权重大且机构低配。需要轮动的策略上， ...