Group 1 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced adjustments to the hedging position limits for various products, including an increase in the combined limits for hedging and speculative positions for 14 products, including PTA [1] - Reports indicated that Mongolia's coal resource tax might be raised to 20%, but the Mongolian Tax Authority confirmed that no official decision regarding changes to coal resource taxes or export taxes has been made [1] - In Tangshan, some steel mills plan to reduce the prices of various types of coke by 50 to 75 yuan per ton, effective from June 6, 2025 [1] - National building materials inventory decreased by 2.63% to 5.5047 million tons, while factory inventory fell by 0.92% to 3.2615 million tons, and production dropped by 0.90% to 4.2193 million tons [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian National Grain Exporters Association (Anec) estimates that soybean exports in June will be 12.55 million tons, down from 13.83 million tons in the same month last year, and lower than May's 14.20 million tons [2] - A foreign media survey predicts that U.S. net soybean export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year will range between 100,000 to 500,000 tons, while for the 2025/26 marketing year, it will be between 0 to 100,000 tons [2] - A Reuters survey forecasts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory for May 2025 will be 2.01 million tons, a 7.74% increase from April, with production expected to rise by 3% to 1.74 million tons and exports by 17.9% to 1.30 million tons [2] - A commodity research institution reported that Indonesia's palm oil production for the 2024/2025 fiscal year is expected to be 48.8 million tons, while Malaysia's is projected at 19 million tons, both remaining unchanged from previous estimates [2] Group 3 - A large lead recycling plant in East China has resumed production, but output remains unstable due to ongoing environmental inspections [3] - A zinc smelting plant in South China is undergoing maintenance for 10 to 15 days, which is expected to impact around 2,000 tons of production [3]

黄金市场 2025年06月04日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 隔夜贵金属价格震荡。 | | 属 | 【消息面】 | | | 特朗普宣布 6 月 4 日钢铝关税提高至 50%，进口自英国钢铝关税仍维持在 25%；特朗普政府发出紧急信函要 | | | 求各国在周三前提交贸易谈判最佳方案。美国亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克仍然认为，FOMC 2025 存在 年降 | | | 息一次的机会；芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比甚至表示，白宫贸易政策可能导致美国出现"滞胀"。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | OECD 预计美国经济仅增长 1.6%，较此前预期的 2.2%大幅下调。OECD 今年第二次下调全球经济预测，称 | | | 特朗普关税风暴下美国首当其冲；美国 4 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 739.1 万人，高于预期和上修后的前值；欧元区 | | | 5 月调和 CPI 同比增长初值 1.9%，八个月来首次低于欧洲央行 2%的目标，支持欧央行进一步降息。 | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日重 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/06/03 | -191.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/30 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/29 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/28 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/27 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 原油基差 基差（右） 原油现货价:中国胜利 期货收盘价(活跃合约):INE原油 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific investment suggestions are given for different sectors: - **Financial Sector** - **Gold**: Short - term market in a multi - empty game, gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - **Treasury Futures**: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **US Stock Index Futures**: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. - **Commodity Sector** - **Black Metals** - **动力煤**: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - **铁矿石**: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - **螺纹钢/热轧卷板**: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - **农产品** - **豆油/菜油/棕榈油**: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - **豆粕**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - **玉米淀粉**: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - **玉米**: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **有色金属** - **多晶硅**: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - **铅**: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **锌**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - **工业硅**: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - **碳酸锂**: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - **铜**: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - **镍**: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - **能源化工** - **原油**: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - **碳排放**: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - **烧碱**: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - **纸浆**: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - **PVC**: The disk may be volatile and weak [73]. - **PX**: Short - term volatility is weak, and try long positions in the medium - long term [77]. - **PTA**: The price is expected to correct marginally in the short term [79]. - **尿素**: Treat it as volatile in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [81]. - **瓶片**: Consider building long positions on processing margins at low prices [84]. - **苯乙烯**: The styrene - crude oil spread is expected to be weak and volatile, and the absolute price depends more on macro - guidance [87]. - **纯碱**: Maintain a view of shorting at high prices in the medium term [88]. - **浮法玻璃**: The spot price and disk are difficult to improve before the inventory of original sheet manufacturers is substantially reduced [90]. - **航运 Index** - **集装箱运价**: The probability of the freight rate center rising is still high; pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [91]. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the financial and commodity markets. In the financial market, inflation control by the Federal Reserve, employment data, and trade policies are the key factors affecting the trends of various financial products. In the commodity market, factors such as supply and demand, seasonal changes, and policy adjustments have significant impacts on commodity prices. Overall, most markets are expected to be volatile, and different investment strategies are recommended according to the characteristics of each market. 3. Summary by Catalog 1. Financial News and Comments - **宏观策略（黄金）** - **News**: Fed official Bostic said there is still a long way to fight inflation, and there may be a rate cut this year depending on economic conditions; US April JOLTs job openings were 7.391 million, higher than expected [12][13]. - **Comment**: Gold prices are in a volatile pattern. The lack of a breakthrough in the upward movement is due to factors such as the higher - than - expected number of job openings and the hawkish stance of Fed officials [13]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The short - term market is in a multi - empty game, and gold remains in a volatile pattern [13]. - **宏观策略（股指期货）** - **News**: During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, UnionPay and NetsUnion processed payment transactions with an amount 3.4% higher than the previous year; the State Council Premier met with the Japanese trade delegation; the Ministry of Commerce launched the "Service Consumption Season" activity [14][15][16]. - **Comment**: The market maintained a high risk preference after the holiday, with a significant seesaw effect and a sharp rise in micro - cap stocks [17][18]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Suggest balanced allocation [19]. - **宏观策略（国债期货）** - **News**: The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; the central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan [20][21]. - **Comment**: The foundation for economic fundamental recovery is not solid, but the bond market's reaction to fundamental data is dull. There are still short - end carry problems and market negative disturbances [21]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The strategy of buying on dips and holding for gains is still applicable [22]. - **宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)）** - **News**: Fed理事Cook said tariffs may exacerbate inflation and weaken employment; the South Korean presidential term of Lee Jae - myung officially began; the US Trade Representative's Office reminded trading partners of the end of the tariff suspension period [23][24]. - **Comment**: The US tariff negotiation needs to be accelerated, and the trend of Trump's tariff policy change remains unchanged. The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [25]. - **宏观策略（美国股指期货）** - **News**: The US raised the import steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% (25% for the UK); Fed official Bostic said the central bank can be patient under tariff uncertainties; US April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased [26][27][28]. - **Comment**: The unexpected increase in job openings eases concerns about economic downturn, but the employment market still shows signs of weakness. US stocks are expected to be volatile [28]. - **Investment Suggestion**: US stocks are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to ongoing tariff risks [29]. 2. Commodity News and Comments - **黑色金属（动力煤）** - **News**: Since April 2025, China's coal production capacity has continued to be released, and coal imports have decreased [30]. - **Comment**: Coal prices have stabilized slightly due to power plant replenishment. If replenishment slows, coal prices may resume a downward trend [30]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Coal prices may resume a downward trend if replenishment slows [31]. - **黑色金属（铁矿石）** - **News**: The OECD lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [32]. - **Comment**: The fundamentals of iron ore are seasonally weak, and there is pressure on port inventories to accumulate. There is still some downward space for prices [32]. - **Investment Suggestion**: There is still some downward space for iron ore prices after the pressure is realized [32]. - **农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油）** - **News**: India's palm oil imports in May are expected to increase by 87% to 600,000 tons; Canada's Prime Minister hopes China will cancel tariffs on Canadian agricultural products [33][34]. - **Comment**: Palm oil prices are supported by improved demand but lack continuous upward momentum; rapeseed oil prices may decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [34]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Palm oil is expected to remain volatile, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered; rapeseed oil may experience a significant decline if China - Canada trade relations improve [35]. - **农产品（豆粕）** - **News**: The soybean planting area in Mato Grosso in the 25/26 season is expected to increase by 1.67%; port soybean inventories and oil - mill soybean meal inventories continue to rise [36][37][38]. - **Comment**: The first US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, but there is no short - term speculation theme. Domestic soybean meal supply pressure continues to increase [38]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Futures prices are expected to be volatile; the basis of domestic soybean meal spot will remain under pressure [38]. - **农产品（玉米淀粉）** - **News**: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong are negative [39]. - **Comment**: Starch losses continue to expand, but the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally. The regional spread may decline slightly after large - scale wheat substitution [39]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CS07 - C07 may maintain a low - level volatile pattern [40]. - **黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板）** - **News**: The auto - dealer chamber of commerce called for抵制 "price war" competition; China's heavy - truck sales in May were 83,000 units [41][43]. - **Comment**: Steel prices are weakly volatile. The trading logic is still dominated by weak demand expectations, and the negative feedback in the industrial chain still exists [43]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Adopt a weak - thinking approach in the near term and hedge on spot price rebounds [44]. - **农产品（玉米）** - **News**: The national average corn price on June 3 increased by 0.19% from the previous trading day [45]. - **Comment**: Spot prices are slightly stronger, while futures prices decline slightly. Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to whether downstream feed enterprises' inventory building, improvement in deep - processing demand, and the implementation of wheat storage policies can trigger a rise in spot prices [45]. - **有色金属（多晶硅）** - **News**: The national new - energy grid - connected consumption situation in April 2025 was announced; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 1,100 lots [46][47]. - **Comment**: The disk may show a reverse - spread logic, but whether the structure can completely turn to contango is uncertain. The supply - demand situation in June is expected to improve, but the market is still affected by factors such as enterprise production and downstream inventory [47]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Consider long positions on far - month contracts at low prices, and pay attention to position management for left - side building [48]. - **有色金属（铅）** - **News**: On June 2, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $22.17 per ton; SMM lead - ingot social inventories increased [49]. - **Comment**: The domestic lead - concentrate supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The lead price is in a short - position pattern, but the short - selling profit - loss ratio is not good. Pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Short - term observation is recommended, and start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [50]. - **有色金属（锌）** - **News**: As of June 3, SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventories increased; on June 2, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $26.08 per ton [51][52]. - **Comment**: The zinc price declined with weakening macro - sentiment. The downstream demand is expected to weaken in June, and the supply is expected to increase. The disk is expected to be short - biased [52]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Look for opportunities to go short at high prices in the short term, and consider long - short option opportunities; maintain a long - short spread strategy in the medium term [53]. - **有色金属（工业硅）** - **News**: The industrial silicon production in May 2025 was 307,700 tons [54]. - **Comment**: Some large factories in Xinjiang may suspend their resumption plans. The demand is not significantly improved. The spot price may bottom out, but the futures price is more affected by sentiment [54][55]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Close short positions; pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories [55]. - **有色金属（碳酸锂）** - **News**: Longpan Technology signed a sales contract for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials worth over 5 billion yuan [56]. - **Comment**: The monthly spread strengthened during the decline last week. Pay attention to the stability of the spot basis and the rhythm of warehouse - receipt generation [56]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Do not chase short positions at the current level; shift short positions to other months when the spread is appropriate [57]. - **有色金属（铜）** - **News**: Teck Resources' Chilean copper mine will be shut down for about a month; Chile's copper production in April decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year; Panama approved the maintenance plan for First Quantum's copper mine [58][59][60]. - **Comment**: The market has different views on the macro - situation. The domestic inventory may accumulate weakly, while the LME inventory is expected to decrease. The disk is expected to be volatile [61]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Continue to observe the changes in the Shanghai copper structure; the disk is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to observe [61]. - **有色金属（镍）** - **News**: PT Bumi Mineral Sulawesi signed a nickel - matte sales agreement; Vale signed a nickel - mine exploitation agreement; LME nickel inventories increased on June 3 [62][63][64]. - **Comment**: The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The nickel - ore market is stable, and the nickel - iron price has risen slightly. The disk has support below but lacks upward drive [64]. - **Investment Suggestion**: Pay attention to Sell Put opportunities [64]. - **能源化工（原油）** - **News**: The US API crude - oil inventory decreased in the week ending May 30 [65]. - **Comment**: Oil prices are volatile and rising. Geopolitical risks support oil prices, but the gasoline inventory has increased, and the peak - season demand needs to be observed [65]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The short - term continuous rebound drive is weak [66]. - **能源化工（碳排放）** - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration encouraged key energy - consuming units to use green electricity [67]. - **Comment**: The policy will promote the development of green - electricity consumption and the green and low - carbon transformation of the power system [67]. - **Investment Suggestion**: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [68]. - **能源化工（烧碱）** - **News**: On June 3, the liquid - caustic soda market price in Shandong was flexibly adjusted [69]. - **Comment**: The supply of liquid caustic soda decreased during the holiday, and the demand was stable. The price of the 09 contract is limited in its downward space [70]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The downward space of the 09 contract is limited [70]. - **能源化工（纸浆）** - **News**: The import wood - pulp spot market price was mainly stable on June 3 [71]. - **Comment**: The fundamentals of pulp have limited changes, and the macro - situation has temporarily stopped warming. The disk is expected to be volatile [71]. - **Investment Suggestion**: The disk is expected to be volatile [72]. - **能源化工（PVC）** - **News**: The domestic PVC powder

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report updates the high - frequency fundamental data from May 26th to May 30th, 2025, showing that the overall fundamental high - frequency index is stable, with different trends in various sub - indicators such as production, demand, prices, and financing [1][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Total Index: Fundamental High - Frequency Index Stable - The current Guosheng fundamental high - frequency index is 125.9 points (previous value: 125.8 points), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 5.0 points (previous value: 4.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate rebounds. The long - short signal for interest - rate bonds is long, with a signal factor of 5.8% (previous value: 6.3%) [1][9]. 3.2 Production: Polyester Operating Rate Declines - The industrial production high - frequency index is 125.4 (previous value: 125.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 4.7 points (previous value: 4.7 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The electric furnace operating rate is 65.4% (previous value: 66.0%), and the polyester operating rate is 90.9% (previous value: 93.3%) [1][13]. 3.3 Real Estate Sales: New Home Sales Year - on - Year Remain Negative - The real estate sales high - frequency index is 44.8 (previous value: 44.9), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6 points (previous value: 6.6 points), and the year - on - year decline rate remains unchanged. The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities is 31.0 million square meters (previous value: 27.7 million square meters), and the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities is 10.1% (previous value: 1.2%) [1][24]. 3.4 Infrastructure Investment: Petroleum Asphalt Operating Rate Continues to Decline - The infrastructure investment high - frequency index is 117.9 (previous value: 117.7), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 points (previous value: 0.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate expands. The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants is 27.7% (previous value: 30.8%) [1][40]. 3.5 Exports: Export Container Freight Rate Index Continues to Rise - The export high - frequency index is 144.4 (previous value: 144.5), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 6.5 points (previous value: 6.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate narrows. The CCFI index is 1118 points (previous value: 1107 points), and the export price index of Yiwu small commodities is 108 points (previous value: 104 points) [1][42]. 3.6 Consumption: Passenger Car Manufacturer Retail Sales Rebound - The consumption high - frequency index is 119.3 (previous value: 119.4), with a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 points (previous value: 1.4 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. Passenger car manufacturer retail sales are 60,823 units (previous value: 51,175 units), and wholesale sales are 75,923 units (previous value: 56,286 units) [1][54]. 3.7 CPI: Pork Prices Continue to Fall - The CPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.1% (previous value: 0.0%). The average wholesale price of pork is 20.7 yuan/kg (previous value: 20.8 yuan/kg) [1][63]. 3.8 PPI: Rebar Prices Continue to Decline - The PPI monthly - on - monthly forecast is - 0.2% (previous value: - 0.3%). The settlement price of rebar futures is 3,237 yuan/ton (previous value: 3,299 yuan/ton) [1][69]. 3.9 Transportation: Both Passenger Transport and Flights Decline - The transportation high - frequency index is 127.6 (previous value: 127.4), with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 point and a year - on - year increase of 8.0 points (previous value: 7.8 points), and the year - on - year growth rate increases. The passenger volume of the subway in first - tier cities is 38.53 million person - times (previous value: 38.66 million person - times), and the number of domestic flights is 12,682 flights (previous value: 12,744 flights) [2][81]. 3.10 Inventory: Soda Ash Inventory Continues to Decline - The inventory high - frequency index is 160.1 (previous value: 160.0), with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 point and a year - on - year increase of 9.9 points (previous value: 9.9 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The soda ash inventory is 161.3 million tons (previous value: 167.7 million tons) [2][86]. 3.11 Financing: 6M National - Share Banker's Acceptance Bill Rediscount Rate Rebounds - The financing high - frequency index is 227.9 (previous value: 227.3), with a week - on - week increase of 0.6 point and a year - on - year increase of 29.1 points (previous value: 29.1 points), and the year - on - year growth rate remains unchanged. The 6M national - share banker's acceptance bill rediscount rate is 1.10% (previous value: 1.08%) [2][98].

Commodity Market Overview - The commodity futures market showed mixed performance during the week of May 26 to May 30, with black commodities being the weakest sector, leading to market attention [1] - Energy and chemical sectors saw significant declines, with fuel down 4.85% and crude oil down 2.97%, while basic metals led gains with nickel up 1.14% and copper up 1.33% [1] - Agricultural products exhibited a mixed trend, with palm oil rising while live pig prices fell [1] Gold Market Analysis - After a strong performance in April, gold prices fell in May, with COMEX gold dropping to a low of $3123 per ounce and experiencing a volatility of over 10% within the month [2] - The decline in gold prices is attributed to easing global tariff concerns, which previously drove prices up, leading to a phase of consolidation in the gold market [2][3] - Analysts expect short-term corrections in gold prices, but a long-term upward trend is anticipated due to factors such as declining dollar credit and ongoing central bank gold purchases [3] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices continued to show a downward trend, with WTI crude at $60.79 per barrel and Brent crude at $62.61 per barrel [4] - OPEC+ agreed to a significant production increase of 410,000 barrels per day, reflecting Saudi Arabia's strategy to regain market share from U.S. shale producers [4][5] - Demand forecasts for global oil consumption have been downgraded, with OPEC's predictions for 2025 and 2026 showing a decrease of 50,000 barrels per day from previous estimates [5] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.5% in May, indicating a slight improvement in economic activity [6] - High-tech manufacturing continued to expand, with a PMI of 50.9%, while the service sector also showed signs of stability [6][7] - Analysts suggest that recent financial policies and easing trade tensions contributed to the rebound in manufacturing activity [7] Sector-Specific Trends - In the energy and chemical sector, OPEC+'s planned production increases are expected to exert downward pressure on oil prices, while domestic fuel oil inventories are rising [8] - The black commodity sector is facing weak demand for iron ore, with steel production declining and inventory levels remaining high [9] - In the agricultural sector, palm oil prices are rebounding due to improved export demand, while soybean crushing in China is at high levels, impacting domestic oil prices [10]

Core Viewpoint - Chengzhi Co., Ltd. (000990) announced that its subsidiary, Nanjing Chengzhi Yongqing Energy Technology Co., Ltd., has received a tax notice requiring the payment of consumption tax, tax surcharges, and related late fees totaling 166 million yuan [1] Group 1 - The total amount to be paid includes consumption tax on carbon five heavy hydrocarbons, tax surcharges, and related late fees [1] - Chengzhi Yongqing has completed the full payment of the required amount, and the local tax authority has not imposed any penalties [1] - The expected impact on the company's net profit for the year 2025 is approximately 132 million yuan [1]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In April 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits maintained positive growth, primarily supported by export demand, while revenue growth showed a marginal decline[9] - The middle-stream profit growth weakened, mainly due to the energy and chemical industries, consistent with the decline in related commodity prices[12] - The downstream profit improved, particularly in the automotive sector, indicating a potential impact from export demand[15] Group 2: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - In March and April 2025, industrial enterprises showed signs of inventory destocking, with raw material inventory growth rates declining marginally in March and finished product inventory growth rates also decreasing in April[10][42] - The inventory turnover days and inventory-to-sales ratio for industrial enterprises remain high, indicating ongoing inventory management challenges[52] - As of March 2025, the inventory growth rate compared to the entire year of 2024 increased, primarily due to structural replenishment in consumer goods[47] Group 3: Risks and Market Outlook - Risk factors include unexpected changes in domestic economic policies and global geopolitical conflicts, which could impact industrial performance[11][53] - The report highlights the need for careful monitoring of market conditions and potential shifts in consumer demand as economic indicators evolve[53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets show complex trends. Stock indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index, Nasdaq Index, and S&P 500 in the US have risen, while some commodity prices like COMEX gold and silver have fallen. In the domestic market, various commodities also present different price changes. Macroeconomic events, including international trade negotiations and domestic economic data releases, have an impact on market sentiment and price trends. Different sectors, such as agriculture, energy - chemical, and industrial metals, have their own supply - demand characteristics and price outlooks [2][6][7][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Tracking - **Stock Indices**: On May 28, 2025, the Dow Jones Industrial Index rose by 740.58 points (1.78%) to 42343.65, the Nasdaq Index rose by 461.95 points (2.465%) to 19199.16, the S&P 500 rose by 118.72 points (2.046%) to 5921.54, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 99.66 points (0.428%) to 23381.99 [2]. - **Commodity Futures**: In the international market, COMEX gold fell by 1.727% to 3299.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell by 0.758% to 33.39 dollars/ounce. In the domestic market, for example, the price of gold fell by 0.117% to 770.70, and the price of silver rose by 0.389% to 8249.00 [2]. - **Currency and Interest Rates**: The SHIBOR overnight rate fell by 3.586% to 1.45, the dollar index fell by 0.085% to 99.53, and the dollar - to - RMB (CFETS) exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.19 [2]. 2. Macroeconomic News - **International Trade**: Premier Li Qiang attended the ASEAN - China - GCC Summit, emphasizing cooperation in multiple fields. The EU is seeking to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, and the US may lower tariffs on some countries. There are also expectations for the completion of trade agreements such as the China - GCC Free Trade Agreement [6]. - **Domestic Economy**: In April, the profits of China's large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 3% year - on - year, with new - kinetic - energy industries showing rapid profit growth. In May, the second - hand housing market in Guangzhou showed year - on - year growth [7]. - **Consumer Confidence**: In May, the US consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98, exceeding all economists' expectations [7]. 3. Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties 3.1 Agricultural Products - **Peanuts**: Affected by factors such as the busy farming season, the supply of peanut spot goods is low, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. However, the market lacks upward momentum, and it is not recommended to chase the high in the futures market [11]. - **Oils and Fats**: The US soybean planting rate is lower than expected, and the commodity market atmosphere is weak. The oil and fat market is expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar futures is in the range of 5800 - 5850 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see. If it breaks through the 5850 - yuan pressure level, a small - position long position can be tried [11]. - **Corn**: The corn market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2340 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see [11]. - **Pigs**: The pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the futures contract is oscillating around 13500, waiting for a direction [13]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs is stable in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term due to factors such as high - age laying hens and weather [13]. 3.2 Energy and Chemical Products - **Caustic Soda**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to run steadily in the short term, and the 2509 contract continues to run at a low level [13]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market price is stable. The UR2509 contract is expected to run in the range of 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton [13]. 3.3 Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: Overseas tariff risks still exist, and the prices of copper and aluminum continue to oscillate and consolidate [13]. - **Alumina**: Affected by factors such as production capacity changes and supply disturbances, the 2509 contract of alumina rebounds from a low level, and attention should be paid to the pressure range of 3200 - 3300 yuan/ton [15]. - **Black Series**: Black series products such as steel and iron alloys are generally in a downward trend. It is not recommended to chase short positions in the short term [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is weak, and the second - round price cut of coke has been implemented. The prices of both continue to run weakly [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see. If it breaks through the 61500 - yuan pressure level, a small - position long position can be tried [15][16]. 3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index**: The A - share market shows weak upward momentum, and it is expected to continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to structural opportunities [18][19]. - **Options**: On May 28, it is the last trading day of the May contracts of ETF options on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges. Trend investors should focus on defense, and volatility investors can buy wide - straddle positions to bet on increased volatility after the decline in volatility [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded, with the gold price dropping by over 1% and briefly falling below the $3000 mark. The US and EU are in trade negotiations, and although the risk of high - tariff imposition remains, the market is expecting a deal. The short - term trend of gold is volatile, and a new upward trend awaits a catalyst [11]. - The US consumer confidence index has risen, and the stock market has responded positively. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks persist, and the US stock market remains in a volatile state [20]. - For commodities, different products have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term, while crude oil prices are affected by the OPEC+ meeting and are trending downward [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Florida has recognized gold and silver as legal tender. The EU and the US are in trade negotiations, and the gold price has dropped by over 1% and briefly fallen below $3000 due to the progress of the negotiations. The short - term gold price is volatile, and there is a risk of further decline [11]. - Investment advice: Be aware of the short - term decline risk and increased market volatility [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japan's Ministry of Finance is considering reducing the issuance of ultra - long - term bonds, causing the yen to rebound and the US dollar index to rise in the short term [15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to rebound in the short term [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 448 billion yuan, with a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The decline in the bond market may be due to institutional behavior. The long - term view on the bond market remains positive, and a strategy of buying on dips and holding is recommended [17]. - Investment advice: Be bullish in the medium - term, and buy at appropriate times to accumulate low - cost positions [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US consumer confidence index in May rose to 98.0, but the durable goods orders in April decreased by 6.3% month - on - month. The market risk appetite has improved, and the three major stock indexes have risen significantly. However, concerns about the US government's debt sustainability and tariff risks remain, and the US stock market remains volatile [19][20]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [20]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai from June 18th to 19th. The profit of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in April rebounded to 3%. However, the revenue growth rate has declined, indicating that the boost from export rush to demand is less than expected [21][22]. - Investment advice: Adopt a balanced allocation strategy [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated arrival of imported soybeans at domestic oil mills in June is about 10.5625 million tons, and the expected arrivals in July and August are 11 million tons and 9 million tons respectively. The US soybean planting rate is 76%, and the export inspection volume is at the lower end of the market expectation. The Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, and the domestic soybean meal spot price is mixed [24][25]. - Investment advice: Treat the market with a volatile mindset and pay attention to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US relations [25]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The steam coal market in Ordos is stable. Towards the end of the month, some coal mines have reduced or stopped production, and the supply has tightened slightly. The power plant's daily coal consumption has increased slightly year - on - year, and the port coal price has stabilized at a low level. However, considering the high - level supply and the impact of new energy on summer consumption, the coal price is expected to decline in the future [26][27]. - Investment advice: Expect the coal price to decline in the future [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron and steel industry's profit from January to April was 1.692 billion yuan. The iron ore price is in a weak and volatile state. The terminal steel product price has broken through the key support level, and the market sentiment is poor. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern [28]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - Australia has launched an anti - dumping review of Chinese rebar. The steel price has continued to decline due to the expected weakening of demand and the collapse of the cost side. The market is in a negative feedback state, and the unilateral operation should be cautious [30]. - Investment advice: Be cautious in short - term unilateral operations and consider hedging on spot price rebounds [31]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot price is stable at a high level, and the market trading is flexible. The starch inventory has not changed much, and the downstream starch sugar demand is expected to increase seasonally. The regional price difference between North China and Northeast China is high but may decline slightly [32]. - Investment advice: The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [33]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The corn spot price is stable. The inventory of corn in Northeast China is low, and the trading is light. However, feed mills are expected to start restocking in June, which may drive up the price of corn and wheat. The corn price is expected to rise in the future [34]. - Investment advice: Both the corn spot and futures prices are expected to rise, and pay attention to the restocking of feed mills and wheat procurement policies in June [35]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A medium - sized alumina enterprise in Guizhou has partially resumed production. The alumina price has shown some changes in different regions, and the mineral price is firm [36][37]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The IEA warns that the global demand for refined copper will increase significantly before 2050, while the supply will decline. Some copper mines have production issues. The short - term copper price is affected by the strengthening US dollar index and is expected to trade in a high - level range [39][40][42]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage operations [43]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon spot price has slightly declined, and there are many market rumors. The production schedule for May and June is known, and the inventory situation varies among downstream enterprises. The decision of leading enterprises on production cuts will affect the market trend [45]. - Investment advice: Unilateral operations are risky. Consider taking profits on the PS2506 - PS2507/PS2507 - PS2508 positive spreads [46]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some enterprises are building new industrial silicon furnaces, and some organic silicon plants are in the maintenance period. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The industrial silicon price lacks the impetus to rebound [47][49]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions and be aware of the cash - flow risks of large enterprises [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia's nickel sulfide exports in March have increased. The LME has increased inventory, and the SHFE has decreased inventory. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be sufficient this year, but the price is supported by factors such as the rainy season. The nickel market is currently calm, and some enterprises have a willingness to cut production [50]. - Investment advice: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the short term and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the medium term [51]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Chile is expected to start production in 2032. A domestic company plans to conduct futures hedging. The current market is dominated by the downward spiral of salt and ore prices, but the approaching delivery of the main contract and salt - factory maintenance may provide short - term support [52][55]. - Investment advice: Partially take profits on previous short positions or roll over contracts and be aware of price fluctuations during the contract roll - over [55]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The refined - scrap lead price difference has narrowed. The primary lead production is stable, while the secondary lead production is affected by high costs and raw material shortages. The demand from battery factories is weak, but the lead inventory has decreased. The lead price may have a low - level buying opportunity in the medium term [56][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and start looking for medium - term low - level buying opportunities [57]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A company's zinc concentrate production in the first quarter has decreased. The supply of zinc is expected to be loose in the future, while the demand is weak. The zinc price is recommended to be shorted [58]. - Investment advice: Look for opportunities to short on price increases and consider selling options. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for spreads and a long - short arbitrage strategy for the domestic - foreign market [59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ is trying to balance the market. The oil price has declined, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting results. An oversupply risk may suppress the oil price [5][60]. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price has declined slightly and is in a narrow - range trading phase. The overall supply - demand relationship of carbon emissions in 2025 is expected to be loose, and the price may be under pressure [61][62]. - Investment advice: The CEA price is expected to trade in a narrow range in the short term [63]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot basis has strengthened. The demand is at a high level, and the supply is below 80%, with inventory being depleted. The cost side is also favorable. The PTA price is expected to be stronger than the oil price [64]. - Investment advice: The PTA price and spreads are expected to remain strong in the short term [65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased. The supply is stable, and the demand from the alum - industry is good. However, the impact of the alum market on caustic soda is waning, and the caustic soda price may trade in a range [66]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price is expected to trade in a range, and the alum market's impact has diminished [66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price has declined. The market is in a weak state, and the price is expected to trade in a range [67]. - Investment advice: The pulp price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [68]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has declined, and the futures price is volatile. The downstream procurement has increased, and the market has improved slightly. The PVC price is expected to trade in a range [69]. - Investment advice: The PVC price is expected to trade in a range due to limited fundamental changes [69]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export price of bottle chips has decreased, and the market trading is light. The industry is operating at a high level, and the processing margin is expected to fluctuate at a low level [70][73]. - Investment advice: The bottle - chip processing margin is expected to remain low, and pay attention to supply - side changes [73]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a low - level range, and the futures price has declined due to new capacity. The spot market is weak, and the demand is sluggish [73]. - Investment advice: Short - term maintenance may support the price, but maintain a short - selling view in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The glass futures price has risen due to rumors of production line shutdowns. The spot market is generally stable, with different regions showing different trends. The glass price is expected to remain in a low - level range [75]. - Investment advice: The glass price is expected to remain low, and pay attention to real - estate policy changes [75]. 3.2.24 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - A shipping line's express service has resumed. The European container freight rate is in a price - holding period, and there may be a second price increase in mid - to - late June. The US line's rush - shipping expectation has subsided [76][77]. - Investment advice: Consider buying on price dips due to market sentiment fluctuations [77].