Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Macro**: In the second half of the year, the demand is pro - cyclically weak, and the policy is "easy to loosen and hard to tighten". Under the assumption of relatively mild monetary and supply - side policies, focus on policy expectations in July, with a relatively positive macro tone. From July to September, if policies do not turn significantly looser, the US will face liquidity risks and the threat of "reciprocal tariffs", bringing macro pressure. After September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [8][29][30]. - **Mesoscopic**: From the perspective of policy documents and industry self - discipline, industries such as steel, refining, synthetic ammonia, cement, electrolytic aluminum, data centers, coal - fired power, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, new energy vehicles, and e - commerce can be focused on for the current comprehensive rectification of "involution - style" competition [9]. - **Microscopic**: Overseas, the core is the inflation expectation dominated by currency. It is necessary for the Fed to restart the easing cycle smoothly, and gold, crude oil, and non - ferrous metals are relatively beneficial. Domestically, the core is the supply - side policy. Referring to 2015, sectors with obvious supply - side production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved, with the mid - and downstream benefiting more than the upstream. This round focuses on sectors such as the black sector and new energy metals [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - **Demand and Inventory Cycle**: The pro - cyclical demand in the second half of the year is weak. The Sino - US inventory cycle has re - entered the destocking phase, and this round of destocking may last until the end of 2025 [14]. - **Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: Global central banks are "easy to loosen and hard to tighten", and both China and the US are increasing fiscal policies. In China, a series of financial policies have been introduced, and the "market bottom" is clear [20][21]. - **Tariff Threats**: Global populist waves are continuous. Trump has issued tariff threats, and the US is in different stages of trade negotiations with various countries [25]. - **Macro Scenario Deduction**: In July, focus on policy expectations; from July to September, there is macro pressure; after September, pay attention to the expansion of fiscal policy and the transmission of inflation [28][29][30]. 3.2 Mesoscopic - **Policy Shift in the US**: The passage of the "Great Beauty" bill marks the US's shift from the first half of the year's "tight fiscal expectation + neutral currency" to a "easy to loosen and hard to tighten" policy stage [32]. - **Domestic Policy Focus**: The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting focuses on governing "involution - style" competition, but details of industry production cuts are needed to determine the inflation trading theme [32]. - **Policy on "Involution - style" Competition**: Policy documents and industry self - discipline focus on industries such as steel, refining, etc. The causes of "involution - style" competition are analyzed, and comprehensive rectification ideas are proposed [9][35][36]. 3.3 Commodities - **Capital Expenditure**: The capital expenditure of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, while that of the black, chemical, and energy sectors has increased. The capital expenditure of crude oil has increased, and the capital expenditure of industrial metals has shown different trends [42][45]. - **Asset Performance in Stagflation - like Situations**: Overseas macro situations are more in line with "stagflation - like" characteristics. In historical stagflation - like stages, the performance of various assets is highly differentiated [54]. - **2015 Supply - side Reform Review**: In 2015, supply - side structural reform was proposed, with clear tasks such as "cutting overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, reducing costs, and strengthening weak links". Sectors with obvious production cuts had greater increases, and industrial profits improved [61][62].

以下文章来源于黑貔貅俱乐部 ，作者黑貔貅 黑貔貅俱乐部 . 宏观经济 ，亮点行业，大类资产配置 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：黑貔貅俱乐部 来源：雪球 站在当下看未来的3-5年 ， 反内卷或许会成为影响中国社会以及经济最重要的事件之一 。 映射到资本市场 上也会带来巨大的投资机会 ， 尤其是对商品而言 ， 可能会成为影响部分品种的核心变量 。 尽管大家都在 类比16年的供给侧改革 ， 但是我觉得还是有很大的差异性 。 01 有较大的背景跟性质差异 15年过剩的行业相对集中在中上游领域 ， 产品的同质化竞争是比较严重的 ， 比如钢铁 ， 水泥 ， 电解铝 ， 玻璃等等 ， 大家生成的东西没有多少不同 ， 价格上也没有多少差距 。 而且这种过剩很大程度上是因为 2011-2012年的经济繁荣带来的投资 ， 主要是周期性因素为主 ， 通过棚改货币化刺激需求以及行政手段 压减无效产能 ， 退出效果还是比较显著的 。 但是本轮产能主要集中在终端消费领域 ， 产品的差距还是很大 ， 中低高端都有 ， 很难通过行政命令去去 化 ， 比如光伏是差异化过剩问题 。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The mid-term investment logic for the steel industry is centered around the concept of "anti-involution," which is expected to improve profitability [10][15]. - Despite some investors questioning the sustainability of the "anti-involution" theme, the report argues that it is a key driver for profit improvement in the steel sector [10][15]. - The report anticipates a shift in the iron ore supply side dynamics, which will further reinforce the mid-term investment logic of "anti-involution" in the steel industry [10][15][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stable profit and high dividend-paying segments within the electrolytic aluminum sector [9]. - It suggests monitoring companies with high gross profit elasticity per ton of steel, such as Sansteel Minmetals, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [10]. Steel Industry Analysis - The report indicates that steel demand is better than expected, with a notable increase in rebar consumption [17]. - Total steel inventory is expected to decline further due to the "anti-involution" measures [24]. - Profit margins for long and short process rebar steel are projected to continue expanding [28]. - Steel prices are likely to rise further, with the rebar price showing a significant increase [34]. New Energy Metals - The report notes a substantial year-on-year increase in lithium production, indicating a positive outlook for lithium prices [38]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with significant growth in production and sales [42]. Industrial Metals - The report observes a decrease in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential price increases [56]. - The global refined copper production is slightly better than expected, with a year-on-year increase [59]. Other Notable Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms in the steel industry, particularly in reducing overcapacity and improving efficiency [16]. - It highlights the role of state-owned enterprises in leading the charge against involutionary competition within the steel sector [16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that with the continuous destocking of aluminum chain and aluminum processing products, primary aluminum prices are expected to maintain an upward trend, and leading companies may exhibit higher profit elasticity [1] - In the short term, there is no favorable demand side, while in the medium term, investment should focus more on supply-side logic [1] - The current overall dividend yield of the sector remains attractive compared to other dividend assets, suggesting a focus on China Hongqiao (01378) [1] Group 2 - Long-term stable low-cost electricity supply is a hard constraint for the domestic and international electrolytic aluminum industry [2] - Although overseas energy costs have been at a low level in recent years, there may be significant upward risks in the future [2] - The electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain a good supply-demand pattern in the medium term [2] Group 3 - The stability of the supply-demand pattern is expected to enhance the stability of future industry profits [3] - Continuous decline in capital expenditure within the electrolytic aluminum industry is likely to lead to sustained improvements in the balance sheets of listed companies, ultimately reflecting in increased dividends and buybacks [3] - Major listed companies in the electrolytic aluminum sector are projected to have dividend yields close to 6% [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the supply-side reform opportunities in the steel, electrolytic aluminum, and silicon industries, emphasizing a shift from previous reforms that focused on upstream raw material de-leveraging and price increases to a more comprehensive approach addressing the entire industrial chain's challenges [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform aims to optimize resource allocation and is characterized by low profitability, low inventory, and low production in the steel industry, making it susceptible to policy and expectation-driven catalysts [1][5]. - The reform is expected to unfold in two phases: the first phase driven by expectations leading to quick gains, and the second phase following policy implementation that will gradually improve corporate profitability [1][8]. Policy Implications - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting highlighted the need to eliminate low-price competition and force the exit of outdated production capacity, particularly in the steel, electrolytic aluminum, and silicon sectors [2]. - Policies are in place to restrict capacity expansion and end price wars, promoting quality upgrades and fair competition [2][7]. Industry Performance - The steel sector has shown low profitability, with rebar profits at only 100 yuan per ton, which is considered relatively good in recent years [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry has a production capacity ceiling of 45 million tons, with current capacity at 44.14 million tons, ensuring stable profitability due to domestic power cost advantages [10][11]. Market Trends - The aluminum sector is currently in a favorable cycle, with expectations of a significant seasonal uptrend in the second half of the year due to low inventory and improving macroeconomic conditions [12]. - The silicon industry, particularly polysilicon, has potential for replicating the success of the aluminum sector due to its high energy consumption, which allows for effective monitoring and control of production capacity [15][16]. Additional Important Insights - The current investment climate is characterized by short-term opportunities driven by policy catalysts, with a neutral assessment of the magnitude of these movements [8]. - Historical data suggests that supply-side reforms can lead to significant market rallies, as seen from 2015 to 2017, where prices increased by 50% and equity values doubled or more [18]. - The silicon sector's production is concentrated, with the top five polysilicon producers accounting for 70% of global output, which aids in controlling capacity and ensuring stability [17]. Conclusion - The conference call emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy implementation and market conditions to identify potential investment opportunities in the steel, electrolytic aluminum, and silicon industries, particularly as these sectors undergo significant structural changes due to supply-side reforms [1][2][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [5] Core Viewpoints - The focus is on investment opportunities in the stable and high-dividend electro-aluminum sector [2][9] - Short-term demand concerns are alleviated, with a greater emphasis on supply-side logic for mid-term investments [8][13] - Long-term stable and low-cost electricity supply is a critical constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - The supply-demand balance is expected to ensure stable profitability and dividends, making the electro-aluminum sector a true dividend asset [14] Summary by Sections Electro-Aluminum Sector - Concerns about downstream demand affecting short-term profitability are noted, but the report argues that short-term demand is not a worry [8][13] - Inventory levels in the electro-aluminum sector are decreasing, indicating a healthy supply-demand balance [8][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of stable, low-cost electricity supply as a hard constraint for the electro-aluminum industry [14] - Future profitability is expected to be stable, with major companies potentially achieving a dividend yield close to 6% [14] Steel Sector - The steel industry is entering a demand lull, with a focus on monitoring production reduction policies [15] - Rebar production has increased significantly, with a slight rise in consumption [15][16] - Total steel inventory has seen a slight increase week-on-week but a significant decrease year-on-year [22] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the overall price index down by 0.49% [35][36] New Energy Metals - Lithium production in May 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 31.37% [39] - The production of new energy vehicles in China has also risen sharply, with a 33.02% increase in production [43] - Prices for lithium and nickel have shown an upward trend, indicating a robust market [48][49]

Group 1: Environmental Initiatives in Xining - Xining has made significant progress in ecological improvement, with forest coverage in the core area of the South-North Mountain Greening Project increasing from 7.2% to 79% since 1989, enhancing carbon sequestration [1] - As a second batch national carbon peak pilot city, Xining is implementing actions targeting major emission sources and promoting green transformations in urban construction, industry, and energy sectors [1] - The city has achieved a 100% resource utilization rate for municipal solid waste, effectively realizing waste reduction, resource recovery, and harmless treatment [3] Group 2: Waste Management and Recycling - Sheneng Huangshui Company specializes in waste incineration power generation, processing approximately 400 trucks of municipal waste daily, converting 1 ton of waste into 500 kWh of electricity [2] - The company employs advanced technologies for waste treatment, ensuring emissions meet standards while generating energy for sale [2] - Xining has closed or ecologically capped all 15 municipal waste landfills, becoming the first city in the Tibetan Plateau to achieve zero landfill for raw waste [3] Group 3: Aluminum Industry Transformation - China's electrolytic aluminum production accounts for half of the global output, with significant carbon emissions associated with traditional production methods [4] - Xining's Ganhua Industrial Park is recognized as a core production base for green electricity aluminum, with companies like Huanghe Xinye focusing on low-carbon transformation and green energy utilization [5][6] - By 2027, Xining aims for a 90% conversion rate of primary electrolytic aluminum products and a 75% share of clean energy in aluminum production [7]

电解铝观点更新 20250702 摘要 2025 年上半年国内原铝表观需求同比增长 4.5%，虽低于去年同期，但 仍超预期，主要受益于流水转化率提升、光伏抢装和抢出口共振，以及 废料供应紧张。 光伏产业对电解铝需求影响复杂，上半年光伏抢装增加原铝需求，但全 年来看，光伏组件对原铝需求同比减少 30 万吨，拖累铝需求增速约 0.7 个百分点。 新能源汽车行业表现强劲，预计全年销量同比增长 30%，汽车用铝增量 同比增加 54 万吨，贡献原铝消费增速约 1.2 个百分点，与去年基本持 平。 受出口退税和关税影响，1-5 月份微断达的铝及其制品累计出口量同比 下降 4.4%，但降幅收窄，全年出口量预计增加 10 万多吨，对全年需求 贡献约 0.5 个百分点。 电力领域投资增长显著，1-5 月新增 220kV 以上线路长度累计同比增长 近 30%，带动铸造业产量同比增长 12%左右，贡献显著。 Q&A 天丰金属公司在过去两年的盈利表现如何？ 天丰金属公司在过去两年中，利润增长速率显著提升，分红比例也有所增加， 整体盈利水平保持稳定。这一扩张周期使得公司表现出色，与港股的中国红桥、 A 股的中葡实业、云铝天山等优秀公司 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the market is influenced by various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities based on their unique fundamentals [4][12][21]. - For copper, the 232 tariff uncertainty and inventory changes are key factors affecting price and spread. For alumina, Guinea's policy reform and market sentiment play important roles. For electrolytic aluminum, macro - sentiment and seasonal changes in production and consumption are crucial. Other metals also have their own influencing factors and corresponding price trends [4][12][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,540 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with the Shanghai Copper index increasing positions by 4,906 lots to 601,000 lots. - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai copper dropped to 120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. Guangdong and Tianjin had different spot premiums and changes [2]. - **Important资讯** - Logistics transportation of some mines in Peru was disrupted due to roadblocks set by informal miners, leading to an interruption in copper concentrate transportation [3]. - **Logic Analysis** - The market expects the 232 tariff to be implemented in September - October, and the expectation of a 25% tariff is strengthening. LME inventory is increasing, and short - term external market squeeze risk is easing. Non - US inventories are difficult to increase effectively before the 232 tariff is implemented, which supports price and spread [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Low - inventory and 232 delay expectations drive prices up. - Arbitrage: Buy near - term and sell far - term. - Options: Wait and see [5][7]. Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 130 yuan to 3,071 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 6,396 lots to 422,300 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [8]. - **Related资讯** - China's central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and marine economic development. Guinea plans to reform its mining industry, including creating an aluminum ore index and exercising sales and transportation rights. An aluminum plant in Xinjiang had a higher winning bid price for alumina. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina warehouse receipts decreased [9][10][11]. - **Logic Analysis** - Alumina prices rose due to Guinea's new policy and market rumors. The market is worried about the impact on alumina production. The supply - demand of bauxite is in a tight - balance in the second half of the year, and the price is supported but limited by previous over - supply [12]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Alumina prices are expected to rebound due to market sentiment, and subsequent warehouse receipt changes should be monitored. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract rose 100 yuan/ton to 20,850 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 12,660 lots to 693,100 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Related资讯** - Aluminum inventory decreased slightly. Warehouse receipts decreased. Aluminum rod production decreased last week. China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly in May. The US Senate passed a bill [18]. - **Trading Logic** - Macro - sentiment improved, and the seasonal decrease in aluminum water conversion rate and the increase in photovoltaic new - installed capacity are important factors. Aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to fluctuate slightly in July, and the decline in warehouse receipts may slow down. The off - season of aluminum consumption may not be too severe [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly with the sector. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities between 7 - 9 and 9 - 12 during de - stocking and exit during stocking. - Options: Wait and see [22]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract rose 90 yuan to 19,885 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 383 lots to 10,472 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [24]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some places increased. A company plans to build a recycling aluminum project [24][25]. - **Trading Logic** - The futures price of aluminum alloy follows the price of aluminum. The spot market is weak in the off - season, but the price is supported by cost. There are still futures - spot arbitrage opportunities [28]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to fluctuate strongly with the price of aluminum. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider futures - spot arbitrage when the spread is over 400 yuan. - Options: Wait and see [28]. Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.11% to 22,230 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,934 lots to 263,800 lots. - Spot: The spot market in Shanghai had limited trading, with the premium of domestic spot to the average price rising, but downstream buyers remained on the sidelines [30]. - **Related资讯** - A zinc smelter in Peru resumed production. The domestic zinc ore tender price in June increased [31]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply - side interference factors have subsided, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase in July. The consumption of zinc is entering the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. Domestic social inventory is expected to increase, and zinc prices may face downward pressure [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wait and see, and consider short - selling at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [35][39]. Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract rose 0.23% to 17,175 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 239 lots to 83,800 lots. - Spot: The spot transaction of primary lead improved, with different regions having different price quotes and changes [35]. - **Related资讯** - A recycled lead smelter in the western region will complete maintenance in July and may resume production in August. Overseas crude lead arrived at the port this week [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The operating rate of domestic primary lead smelters remains high, while the recycled lead smelters are in a loss, and the supply may tighten. The traditional peak season of lead - acid batteries is coming, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [39][40]. Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 rose 830 to 121,220 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 2,288 lots. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged [41]. - **Related资讯** - Analysts expect nickel prices to rebound significantly in the second half of 2025 due to supply tightening in Indonesia. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - Nickel prices are fluctuating weakly above 120,000 yuan. The demand in July is entering the off - season, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance. Indonesia's policy adjustment may have limited impact on actual production, and nickel prices will continue to fluctuate [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider short - selling on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Consider selling call options after rebounds [44][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract rose 135 to 12,670 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,059 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [48]. - **Important资讯** - The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism may bring cost risks to stainless steel importers [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis** - Stainless steel prices rebounded with the commodity market, but exports and domestic demand are weak. The decline in nickel ore prices may provide some breathing space, and there may be hedging opportunities. The upward space of stainless steel prices is limited [52]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Stainless steel prices are expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. Pay attention to domestic stimulus policies and US tariff progress. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53][54]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2508 contract closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, up 1,180 yuan/ton or 0.44%, with positions increasing by 282 lots to 56,207 lots. - Spot: The spot price of tin in Shanghai rose, but the actual transaction was limited, with most downstream buyers remaining on the sidelines [56]. - **Related资讯** - The US Senate passed a tax - cut and spending bill, which is beneficial to photovoltaic stocks [57]. - **Logic Analysis** - The market expects the 232 tariff to be postponed to September/October. LME inventory is decreasing, and the supply is fragile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The short - term market is strong. Pay attention to the resumption of tin ore production [59]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: Driven by the sentiment of polysilicon futures, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 4.79% to 8,210 yuan/ton. - Spot: After the futures price increase, the shipment of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia accelerated, with shipment prices ranging from 7,600 to 8,050 yuan/ton [62][63]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons [64]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The demand for industrial silicon will increase in July, and the spot price may not decline before the full resumption of leading manufacturers. Market rumors and policy factors may affect market sentiment. In the short - term, it is recommended to participate in the long - side with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: Affected by price - limit rumors, polysilicon futures rose to the daily limit. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased to varying degrees [66]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons, and polysilicon may face inventory accumulation [64][68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - Although the industry is facing negative factors, policy implementation may support the price above 34,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton [68]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate in long - positions in far - month contracts in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract rose 1,980 to 62,780 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 2,761 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increasing by 240 to 23,180 tons. - Spot: The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [70]. - **Important资讯** - CATL has future plans for battery recycling and started a battery factory project in Indonesia. Chile's copper company obtained a lithium mining quota, and the Chilean Congress passed a bill to speed up project approval [71][73]. - **Logic Analysis** - Lithium carbonate prices rose, but the industry has over - capacity. In July, the supply may increase, and the demand may increase slightly. The short - term rebound may not last, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75][77].

Summary of Zhongfu Industrial Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongfu Industrial operates in three main segments: electrolytic aluminum, aluminum processing, and coal. The company has a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 750,000 tons, aluminum processing capacity of 690,000 tons, and coal capacity of 2.25 million tons [3][7]. Financial Performance and Projections - For 2025, Zhongfu Industrial expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 2.24 billion yuan, based on an electrolytic aluminum price of 20,500 yuan/ton and an alumina price of 3,000 yuan/ton. The current P/E ratio is only 8 times, indicating low valuation and growth potential [2][3]. - The company anticipates a significant profit increase in the electrolytic aluminum segment in 2025 due to a 120,000-ton increase in equity capacity, reduced electricity costs from hydropower purchases, and a substantial drop in alumina prices [4][5]. - The projected net profit for 2026 is around 2.55 billion yuan, with a commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 60% from 2025 to 2027, resulting in a dividend yield of approximately 8% [6][15]. Cost Structure and Profitability - The average electricity cost is expected to decrease from 0.53 yuan/kWh to 0.47 yuan/kWh due to changes in the electricity trading scheme in Sichuan, which will enhance profitability in the Guangyuan region [4][11]. - The company has successfully reduced its debt-to-asset ratio from over 100% to 33.4% following its restructuring [10]. Employee Incentives - In February 2025, Zhongfu launched an employee stock ownership plan, transferring 265 million shares at a price of 2.79 yuan per share, totaling approximately 424 million yuan. Over 70% of employees participated in this plan [8]. Business Segment Developments - The aluminum processing segment contributes significantly to revenue, with 63% of revenue from aluminum processing and 32% from electrolytic aluminum in 2024. The coal segment contributes relatively less [10]. - The company has made progress in its canning materials business, raising processing fees for can body and lid materials, which has improved processing profits [12]. Coal Business Status - Zhongfu currently operates three coal mines with a total capacity of 2.25 million tons, but actual equity capacity is only 610,000 tons. The company faced losses in the coal segment in Q1 2025, but expects to return to profitability as all mines resume operations [13]. Long-term Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 2.76 billion yuan for 2027, with a potential doubling of market value if the dividend yield returns to a normal level of around 5% [6][15]. Conclusion - Zhongfu Industrial is positioned for significant growth in the coming years, driven by improvements in its electrolytic aluminum segment, a strong commitment to dividends, and a solid restructuring outcome. The company maintains a favorable outlook for its financial performance and market valuation.