融资担保比例提高后，交易型资金如何反应？ ——资金行为研究双周报（2026/01/09-2026/1/22） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 23 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 2 周）》2026-01-17 2、《从春节到两会，市场轮动的节奏 将如何演绎？》2026-01-17 3、《开年市场新高后或如何演绎？》 2026-01-11 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 分析师：王永健 市场资金流向概览：机构流出动能阶段性收敛，市场共识重新凝聚。1 月 12 日后机构 资金流出一度加速，但于 20 日后趋于收敛；散户资金对全 A 及创业板的流入在高位 后亦于 14 日起斜率放缓。全 A 与创业板资金加速度在 13 日及 21 日前后出现剧烈波 动，显示存量博弈依然活跃。截至 1 月 22 日，三大指数散户与机构净流入率差额显 著收窄并向零轴收敛，市场进入力量均衡期。 相 ...

Group 1 - The total margin financing balance in A-shares reached 27,249.13 billion yuan, an increase of 38.90 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.62% of the A-share circulating market value [1] - The margin trading volume on the same day was 2,686.14 billion yuan, which is an increase of 78.01 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.88% of the total A-share trading volume [1] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries, 18 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the electronics industry leading at a net inflow of 1.749 billion yuan [3] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows include telecommunications, non-bank financials, and basic chemicals [3] Group 3 - A total of 53 individual stocks had net financing inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with China Ping An leading at a net inflow of 658 million yuan [3][4] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows include Zhongji Xuchuang, Runze Technology, Poly Development, Zhongchao Holdings, Longxin Technology, Xinyi Sheng, Kweichow Moutai, and Wolong Nuclear Materials [3][4]

公布业绩快报公司 | 代码 | 简称 | 业绩快报公布 | 营业收入（亿 | 营业收入同比 | 净利润（亿 | 净利润同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 日 | 元） | （%） | 元） | （%） | | 600189 | 泉阳泉 | 01.08 | 12.73 | 6.24 | 0.15 | 147.89 | | 300824 | 北鼎股 份 | 01.15 | 9.50 | 26.04 | 1.11 | 59.05 | | 002028 | 思源电 气 | 01.16 | 212.05 | 37.18 | 31.63 | 54.35 | | 605016 | 百龙创 园 | 01.23 | 13.79 | 19.75 | 3.66 | 48.94 | | 600030 | 中信证 | 01.15 | 748.30 | 28.75 | 300.51 | 38.46 | | | 券 | | | | | | | 002415 | 海康威 视 | 01.21 | 925.18 | 0.02 | 141.88 | 18.46 | | 60 ...

Core Insights - As of January 22, the total market financing balance reached 2.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 39.72 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - A total of 1,756 stocks received net financing purchases, with 566 stocks having net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan, and 53 stocks exceeding 100 million yuan [1] - China Great Wall topped the net financing purchases with 662 million yuan, followed by China Ping An and Zhongji Xuchuang with 658 million yuan and 559 million yuan respectively [1] Individual Stock Highlights - The average financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization for stocks with significant net purchases is 4.21% [2] - The stock with the highest financing balance relative to its market capitalization is Guokewi, with a financing balance of 3.18 billion yuan, accounting for 9.71% of its market cap [2] - Other notable stocks with high financing balance percentages include Demingli (9.32%), Dongfang Caifu (8.80%), and Weichai Heavy Industry (8.22%) [2] Industry Distribution - The industries with the highest concentration of stocks receiving net financing purchases over 100 million yuan include electronics, national defense and military, and power equipment, with 13, 6, and 4 stocks respectively [1] - In terms of board distribution, 38 stocks on the main board, 10 on the ChiNext board, and 5 on the Sci-Tech Innovation board received significant net purchases [1] Financing Purchase Rankings - The top net financing purchases on January 22 included: - China Great Wall: 661.94 million yuan, with a market cap financing ratio of 4.06% [2] - China Ping An: 657.93 million yuan, with a market cap financing ratio of 4.66% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang: 558.74 million yuan, with a market cap financing ratio of 3.42% [2] - Other significant net purchases included Runze Technology, Poly Development, and Zhongchao Holdings [1]

融资担保比例提高后，交易型资金如何反应？ ——资金行为研究双周报（2026/01/09-2026/1/22） 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 23 日 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740522050001 Email：wangyj09@zts.com.cn 1、《A H 股市场周度观察（1 月第 2 周）》2026-01-17 2、《从春节到两会，市场轮动的节奏 将如何演绎？》2026-01-17 3、《开年市场新高后或如何演绎？》 2026-01-11 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 策略定期报告 报告摘要 分析师：王永健 市场资金流向概览：机构流出动能阶段性收敛，市场共识重新凝聚。1 月 12 日后机构 资金流出一度加速，但于 20 日后趋于收敛；散户资金对全 A 及创业板的流入在高位 后亦于 14 日起斜率放缓。全 A 与创业板资金加速度在 13 日及 21 日前后出现剧烈波 动，显示存量博弈依然活跃。截至 1 月 22 日，三大指数散户与机构净流入率差额显 著收窄并向零轴收敛，市场进入力 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the credit bond issuance interest rate center further declined. After the launch of the science - technology board in the bond market in May, the issuance of science - innovation bonds significantly increased. The continuous growth of industrial bond issuance drove the overall credit bond issuance to reach a new historical high. The net financing of credit bonds increased significantly year - on - year, with only a net financing gap in March [2]. - The financing differentiation pattern between urban investment bonds and industrial bonds intensified in 2025. Urban investment bond issuance continued to shrink, while industrial bond issuance increased significantly driven by the surge in central enterprise bonds. From the perspective of issuer qualifications, high - grade bonds expanded, while medium - and low - grade bonds contracted [2]. - In 2025, the industrial bond issuance scale grew steadily. Most industries saw an increase in industrial bond issuance, and the issuance was concentrated in a few industries. The issuance was also concentrated among leading enterprises, and large central enterprises contributed significantly to net financing [2][4]. - In 2025, urban investment bond issuance remained in a contraction trend, and the net financing gap widened year - on - year. Most regions saw a decline in issuance and an expansion of the net financing gap. The net financing gap of AA - rated urban investment bonds narrowed due to the decrease in maturity volume, but the net financing of medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds in some regions turned negative [4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Credit Bond Issuance in 2025 1.1 Overall Credit Bond Issuance - In 2025, the credit environment was loose, and the bond market yield was low. With policy dividends, industrial bond issuance increased significantly, driving the continuous expansion of credit bond issuance and a substantial increase in net financing. The total credit bond issuance was 13.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. The net financing was 2.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 4924 billion yuan year - on - year [7]. - The monthly issuance rhythm showed a "low - front, stable - back" characteristic. Most months had a year - on - year increase in issuance, and only March had a significant net financing gap due to interest rate hikes [12]. 1.2 Issuance Interest Rate - In 2025, the average credit bond issuance interest rate fluctuated at a low level, and the center moved down. The average issuance interest rate was 2.15%, a year - on - year decrease of 35.96bps. The main reasons were the loose monetary policy and the narrowing of credit spreads [15][16]. - Throughout the year, the issuance interest rates of major - term and all - grade credit bonds showed two rounds of rising and then falling. The interest rate was affected by factors such as the tightening of the capital market, policy adjustments, and the stock - bond seesaw effect [22]. 1.3 Issuance Term - In 2025, the weighted - average issuance term of credit bonds was 3.43 years, a year - on - year decrease of 0.17 years. It showed an upward trend in the first half of the year and a downward trend in the second half, mainly due to the increase in financing costs and the significant shortening of the issuance term of central enterprises [23]. 1.4 Cancellation of Issuance - In 2025, the scale of cancelled credit bond issuance was 276.16 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.34%. The cancellation was mainly due to market interest rate fluctuations and the adjustment of the financing strategies of central and local state - owned enterprises [28]. 2. Credit Bond Financing Structure in 2025 2.1 Financing Performance of Different - Grade Issuers - In 2025, the credit bond market showed a differentiation trend of high - grade expansion and medium - and low - grade contraction. The issuance of AAA - rated, AA + - rated, and AA - rated credit bonds was 9.80 trillion, 2.95 trillion, and 1.10 trillion yuan respectively [35]. 2.2 Financing Performance of Different - Nature Issuers - The credit bond market continued the differentiation trend of shrinking urban investment bond issuance and increasing industrial bond issuance. In 2025, the issuance of urban investment, industrial local state - owned enterprises, central enterprises, and private enterprises was 3.27 trillion, 5.44 trillion, 4.56 trillion, and 0.68 trillion yuan respectively [38]. 2.3 Financing Performance of Different Bond Types - In 2025, the bond types with large issuance scales were medium - term notes, ultra - short - term financing bills, private placement bonds, and general corporate bonds. The issuance of general corporate bonds and private placement bonds increased by more than 10% year - on - year [45]. - Low - grade issuers had a significantly higher proportion of private placement bond issuance. AAA - rated credit bonds were mainly issued in public - offering varieties, while AA + - rated and AA - rated credit bonds had a high proportion of private placement bonds [48][49]. 3. Industrial Bond Issuance in 2025 3.1 By Industry - In 2025, industrial bond issuance showed the characteristics of growth in most industries, contraction in some industries, and high industry concentration. Four industries had issuance exceeding one trillion yuan, and the public utility industry contributed the most to the increase in issuance [50]. 3.2 From the Issuer Dimension - Industrial bond issuance was concentrated among leading enterprises, and central enterprises became the core force of bond financing. The top 100 issuers contributed 43.6% of the issuance scale, and large central enterprises had a significant increase in issuance and net financing [55]. 4. Urban Investment Bond Issuance in 2025 4.1 Regional Financing Performance - In 2025, most regions saw a contraction in urban investment bond issuance and an expansion of the net financing gap. Only a few regions had an increase in issuance or positive net financing [61]. 4.2 Grade - Based Financing Performance - In 2025, the net financing of medium - and high - grade urban investment bonds in many places turned negative, while the net financing gap of AA - rated urban investment bonds narrowed due to the decrease in maturity volume [62].

Core Insights - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) marks a significant shift in global low-carbon governance, impacting trade flows and reshaping industry competition and capital movement [1][2] - China's ESG investment ecosystem is maturing, with a focus on transitioning from passive screening to active value discovery and creation [1] Group 1: Impact of CBAM and Hainan Free Trade Port - The CBAM is seen as a "green valve" affecting global trade, particularly for industries like cement, steel, and aluminum, increasing compliance costs for Chinese exporters [1][2] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is positioned as a testing ground for innovative carbon management practices, potentially leading to cross-border carbon asset trading and green financing [2][6] Group 2: Industry Transformation and Valuation Reconstruction - The introduction of CBAM is accelerating the restructuring of valuation systems in China's capital markets, with companies that adopt energy-saving measures and carbon management systems likely to receive a "green premium" [2][3] - The Chinese carbon market is rapidly developing, with major energy-intensive industries included, and efforts are needed to optimize carbon pricing mechanisms to align with international standards [3] Group 3: ESG Management Challenges - Despite the growing popularity of ESG investment, asset management institutions still exhibit a tendency to focus on screening rather than deep engagement, hindered by insufficient research capabilities and short-term performance incentives [4] - The quality of ESG data remains a challenge, particularly in high-energy sectors and among smaller enterprises, necessitating collaborative efforts to enhance data disclosure and verification [4] Group 4: ESG Practices and Investment Strategies - China Galaxy Securities has developed an ESG rating system that integrates international frameworks with local characteristics, aiding investment decisions and responsible management [5] - The emergence of ESG-enhanced indices indicates a shift towards proactive value influence in ESG investments, signaling to companies that strong ESG performance can enhance valuation and attract capital [5][6] Group 5: Focus on Green Premium and High Certainty Sectors - In high-carbon industries covered by CBAM, green transformation is becoming essential for survival, with technology innovations expected to create economic and environmental benefits [6] - Investment strategies should prioritize sectors like banking, steel, non-bank finance, transportation, and power equipment, which align well with green transformation and compliance requirements [6][7] Group 6: Market Outlook and ESG Integration - The anticipated improvement in market conditions and the advantages of ESG integration strategies are expected to resonate deeply, providing a clear investment rationale for 2026 and beyond [7] - Companies with strong ESG performance are likely to demonstrate robust operational structures and risk resilience, aligning with long-term trends in green transformation and economic restructuring [7]

2025年基金四季报1月22日披露完毕。 天相投顾数据显示，截至2025年年底，全市场公募基金资产净值（含估算基金）合计超过37.64万亿 元，规模续创历史新高。主动权益基金前十大重仓股分别为中际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、 紫金矿业、阿里巴巴-W、寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密。 2025年四季度，尽管A股市场整体呈现震荡态势，但是指数基金规模的持续增长为A股市场带来源源不 断的增量资金。权益类基金整体维持较高仓位，部分基金在四季度继续加仓。 从仓位分布看，据兴业证券统计，主动权益基金2025年四季度末的仓位虽然比三季度末下降，但仍处于 历史第二高水平。 分行业看，据国信证券统计，在2025年四季报披露的持仓中，主动权益基金加仓居前的三个行业为有色 金属、基础化工、非银金融，分别加仓1.22、1.13、0.81个百分点；计算机、传媒、国防军工行业减仓 居前，分别减仓1.34、0.98、0.75个百分点。 去年四季度，基金加仓大周期板块，权重仅次于科技类板块。 多位基金经理表示，展望2026年，对资本市场整体环境保持相对乐观判断。基金经理对科技产业与大周 期板块的配置仍有分歧。 鹏华基金基金经 ...

去年四季度，基金加仓大周期板块，权重仅次于科技类板块。 证券时报记者 吴琦 2025年基金四季报1月22日披露完毕。 天相投顾数据显示，截至2025年年底，全市场公募基金资产净值（含估算基金）合计超过37.64万亿元，规模续创 历史新高。主动权益基金前十大重仓股分别为中际旭创、新易盛、宁德时代、腾讯控股、紫金矿业、阿里巴巴- W、寒武纪-U、立讯精密、贵州茅台、东山精密。 2025年四季度，尽管A股市场整体呈现震荡态势，但是指数基金规模的持续增长为A股市场带来源源不断的增量资 金。权益类基金整体维持较高仓位，部分基金在四季度继续加仓。 从仓位分布看，据兴业证券统计，主动权益基金2025年四季度末的仓位虽然比三季度末下降，但仍处于历史第二 高水平。 分行业看，据国信证券统计，在2025年四季报披露的持仓中，主动权益基金加仓居前的三个行业为有色金属、基 础化工、非银金融，分别加仓1.22、1.13、0.81个百分点；计算机、传媒、国防军工行业减仓居前，分别减仓 1.34、0.98、0.75个百分点。 多位基金经理表示，展望2026年，对资本市场整体环境保持相对乐观判断。基金经理对科技产业与大周期板块的 配置仍有分 ...

Group 1 - The scale of passive funds continues to rise while active funds decrease, with passive funds reaching 5.48 trillion and active funds dropping to 3.97 trillion [8][10] - The average position of various types of funds has decreased, with active equity funds averaging 87.8% [12] - The concentration of holdings in active equity funds has increased, with the top 20, 50, and 100 stocks accounting for 34.12%, 48.24%, and 60.73% respectively [14] Group 2 - Active equity funds are focusing on cyclical sectors, AI, and non-bank financials, with significant increases in positions in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil & gas [3][36] - The active funds have increased their holdings in non-bank financials, particularly in the insurance sector, benefiting from the current interest rate environment [37] - The active funds have reduced their positions in TMT, healthcare, consumer services, and new energy sectors [21][27] Group 3 - Passive funds have seen a significant increase in holdings in communication, non-ferrous metals, and banks, while decreasing in electronics, power equipment, and biomedicine [44][45] - The proportion of holdings in the main board has increased for passive funds, while the shares in the ChiNext and STAR Market have decreased [40] - The relative over-allocation of passive funds compared to active funds has increased in sectors such as banking and media [45] Group 4 - The allocation of active funds to Hong Kong stocks has significantly decreased, with the total value of Hong Kong stocks held dropping from 19.26% to 16.23% of total holdings [48] - The number of Hong Kong stocks held by active funds has decreased from 376 to 361 [48] - The top holdings of active funds include Tencent, Alibaba, and SMIC, with notable changes in their respective share values [52]