Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a significant downward trend in November, contrasting sharply with the optimistic expectations at the beginning of the month, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.67% and the ChiNext Index falling by 4.23% [1][2] - Defensive sectors such as banking and textiles performed relatively well, while growth sectors like technology and automotive faced substantial declines, with the computer industry down by 5.26% [1][2] Key Factors Influencing Market Performance - A notable cooling in global artificial intelligence investment themes has directly impacted the performance of growth sectors, initiated by a significant pullback in U.S. tech stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing a maximum drop of 7.37% in November [2][3] - Domestic economic recovery momentum remains insufficient, as indicated by a drop in the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) to 49.0, and a 5.5% year-on-year decline in profits for industrial enterprises [3][4] - The tightening of global liquidity conditions has also exerted pressure on risk assets, with U.S. non-farm payrolls increasing by 119,000 in September, leading to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [3][4] Market Behavior and Trends - As the year-end approaches, institutional investors are adopting strategies to lock in profits and preserve performance, leading to a shift from high-valuation sectors to low-valuation defensive stocks, resulting in significant market structure differentiation [4][5] - The overall market turnover has decreased from around 2 trillion to approximately 1.7 trillion, indicating reduced liquidity and increased volatility in individual stocks [4][5] Investment Strategy and Outlook - A "defensive + growth" allocation strategy is recommended, balancing stable cash flow from defensive sectors like banking and utilities with increased exposure to high-growth areas such as energy storage and military industries [6][7] - The energy storage sector is expected to grow over 40% due to rising demand and policy support, while the military sector benefits from ongoing national defense modernization efforts [6][7]

◼ 2025 年 12 月最新持仓行业为：医药生物、交通运输、银行、非银金融、 机械设备。 证券研究报告·金融工程·金工定期报告 金工定期报告 20251201 从微观出发的五维行业轮动月度跟踪 202512 2025 年 12 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 报告要点 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 凌志杰 执业证书：S0600525040007 lingzhj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《从微观出发的五维行业轮动月度跟 踪 202511》 2025-11-03 东吴证券研究所 1 / 8 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 模型多空对冲绩效：以 2015/01/01-2025/11/30 为回测区间，五维行业轮 动模型在申万一级行业中，六分组多空对冲的年化收益率为 21.31%，年 化波动率为 10.79%，信息比率为 1.98，月度胜率为 72.80%，历史最大 回撤为 13.30%；多头对冲全市场行业等权组合的年化收益率为 10.48%， 年化波动率为 ...

第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜出炉，非银金融业第一名为国泰海通证券刘欣琦团队。 新浪财经整理刘欣琦最新研究观点如下： 国泰海通证券刘欣琦：地产对上市险企影响有限，非银板块蓄势待发 本周（11月24日-30日）市场对涉房险企的资产端关注度提升。从历史数据以及交流情况来看，我们认 为目前上市保险公司涉房资产的占比均大幅下降，且资产质量相对此前均有所提升。因此，我们认为地 产对保险公司资产端的影响有限；而从保险负债端来看，越来越多的迹象表明负债端触底回升迹象显 现，2026年开门红将呈现超预期表现。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"启幕 【相关阅读】第七届新浪财经金麒麟最佳分析师荣誉榜 投资建议：我们预计资负共振推动上市险企26年开门红NBV较好增长，维持行业"增持"评级。 国泰海通证券刘欣琦："报行合一"更进一步，看好非银板块补涨机会 1．经纪业务：本周（17日-23日）日均股基成交额为19257亿元（前值21040亿元）；截至本周末，2025 年两市日均股基成交额19404亿元，同比变动67.05%。 2．投行业务：截至2025年11月21日，IPO和定增承销规模为9526亿元；截至2025年 ...

| 代码 | 最新融资余额（亿元） | 较上一日增减（亿元） | 环比增幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | 3577.73 | 15.26 | 0.43 | | 通信 | 1132.76 | 14.55 | 1.30 | | 银行 | 753.49 | 3.84 | 0.51 | | 电力设备 | 2166.99 | 2.98 | 0.14 | | 基础化工 | 1005.22 | 2.04 | 0.20 | | 交通运输 | 422.21 | 1.24 | 0.29 | | 机械设备 | 1271.52 | 0.91 | 0.07 | | 汽车 | 1178.76 | 0.88 | 0.07 | | 房地产 | 356.91 | 0.35 | 0.10 | | 石油石化 | 242.32 | 0.33 | 0.14 | | 轻工制造 | 143.53 | 0.27 | 0.19 | | 纺织服饰 | 81.57 | 0.25 | 0.31 | | 社会服务 | 127.09 | 0.11 | 0.09 | | 综合 | 47.96 | 0.06 | 0.12 | ...

投资机会方面，如果指数上行则关注非银金融，除此之外，主要交易机会围绕中央经济工作会议等可能 会有的政策方向，重点关注涨价资源品、服务消费和科技领域自主可控。 转自：新华财经 编辑：林郑宏 新华财经上海12月1日电 招商证券研报分析认为，展望12月，市场在经历了三个月的震荡蓄势后，终于 要选择方向，而选择向上突破发动跨年行情的概率较高。结合三季报，十五五规划，增量资金和投资者 结构以及全球宏观环境变化，12月市场将会发动指数级别上行的跨年行情。 资金面方面，2025年1月实施了印发《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》要求提升商业保险资 金A股投资比例，新增保费投入A股比例要提升，而每年一季度都是保险开门红，新增保费配置股票需 求增加，12月是提前布局的时机。而美元指数重新走弱和人民币汇率走强为外资重新流入提供了基础。 过去两整年基金业绩普遍较高，进入年底年初居民存款增加较多，居民配置权益基金的概率加大。12月 容易形成各路增量资金的共振，从而形成经典的跨年行情。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector has shown a decline in trading volume, with the commercial real estate REITs pilot program progressing steadily [1] - The insurance industry has surpassed a total asset value of 40 trillion yuan, indicating robust growth [5][23] - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors within non-bank finance, with insurance leading in growth [11] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sub-Sector Performance - In the recent five trading days (November 24-28, 2025), all sub-sectors of non-bank finance underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with insurance up by 0.21%, securities by 0.75%, and multi-financial by 1.63% [10] - Year-to-date, the insurance sector has increased by 14.41%, while multi-financial has risen by 6.76% [11] Securities Sector - Trading volume has decreased month-on-month, with the average daily trading amount for November at 22,411 billion yuan, a 12.90% decline from the previous month but a 4.61% increase year-on-year [15] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has released a consultation draft for the commercial real estate REITs pilot program, aiming to enhance the market [18][21] Insurance Sector - As of Q3 2025, the total assets of insurance companies reached 40.4 trillion yuan, a 12.5% increase from the beginning of the year [23] - The insurance sector's premium income for the first three quarters was 5.2 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year growth [23] - The report indicates a strong cyclical characteristic in the insurance industry, with expectations for improvement in both liabilities and investments as the economy recovers [27] Multi-Financial Sector - The trust industry is experiencing a stable transition, with total assets reaching 29.56 trillion yuan in 2024, a 23.58% year-on-year increase [30] - The futures market saw a trading volume of 6.03 billion hands in October 2025, with a transaction value of 61.22 trillion yuan, indicating a 4.56% year-on-year growth [35] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the non-bank financial sectors as follows: insurance > securities > other multi-financial [46] - Key recommended companies include China Life, Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [46]

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience an upward breakout in December, initiating a year-end rally, driven by positive economic policy signals from the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings [2][4][14] - The dual focus on the Shanghai 50 and Sci-Tech 50 indices is recommended as a favorable combination for capitalizing on the anticipated market rally [2][14][19] - Key investment opportunities include non-bank financials, resource price increases, service consumption, and technology sectors that emphasize self-sufficiency [2][14][19] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming political bureau and central economic work meetings in shaping economic policy, which is expected to be more proactive, enhancing confidence in economic recovery and corporate profitability [4][15][32] - The liquidity environment is projected to remain stable, with an influx of new capital expected in December, particularly from insurance funds and increased household savings, which may lead to a classic year-end rally [4][18][25] - The focus on cyclical sectors such as coal, basic chemicals, and steel, as well as high-end manufacturing like defense and power equipment, is emphasized due to their potential for performance improvement [5][21][22] Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's style will likely shift towards large-cap stocks, with a recommendation for indices such as CSI 300 and Sci-Tech 50, reflecting a preference for stability and potential growth [20][21] - The analysis indicates that sectors with low inventory levels, optimized production capacity, and improving economic conditions should be prioritized for investment [21][22][23] - The anticipated recovery in consumer spending, particularly in service sectors, is highlighted as a critical driver for economic growth, supported by fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption [17][32][33]

Core Conclusions - The market has experienced wide fluctuations since November, primarily due to entering an earnings and policy vacuum period, making it sensitive to uncertain events and negative factors. Weak economic data and overseas market disturbances may exacerbate market volatility. Additionally, the slowdown in resident capital inflows has extended the time for market consolidation after reaching a high turnover rate during the bull market [2][10][11]. Conditions for Index Breakthrough Condition 1: Incremental Policy Catalysts - The potential for unexpected stable growth policies to be implemented ahead of schedule could advance the spring market. The focus should be on the policy direction set by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. Historically, the probability of market success increases as the conference date approaches, with a significant rise expected post-conference [3][19][22]. Condition 2: Improvement in Economic Data (Earnings) - For a bull market driven by earnings, continuous improvement in economic data is essential. Current PMI is below the threshold, and other economic indicators such as industrial production and real estate data are weak. Significant improvements in economic data may not be seen until early 2026, as social financing and credit data typically peak at the beginning of the year [3][20][25]. Condition 3: Significant Inflows of Resident Capital - A breakthrough in a bull market, especially during a liquidity-driven phase, is often accompanied by substantial inflows of resident capital. Recent months have shown a slowdown in the inflow of funds, indicating that the current capital environment is not robust. The potential for increased capital inflows may be catalyzed by a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but improvements are more likely in Q1 2026 due to typically higher liquidity and activity levels at the start of the year [3][25][27]. Market Changes - The A-share market has seen all major indices rise, with notable gains in the ChiNext 50 and ChiNext Index. The communication and electronics sectors led the gains, while oil and banking sectors faced declines. Global markets also showed positive trends, with significant increases in major indices like the S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 [35][36]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a tactical approach where the foundation of the bull market remains solid, with potential for earnings improvement and capital inflows to extend the bull market duration. Strategic positioning should consider the upcoming policy and capital changes that may present upward opportunities [29][32]. Sector Allocation - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, electric equipment, and machinery, with a focus on low-valuation value stocks. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy catalysts and the potential for significant performance in low-valuation sectors as the market outlook evolves [34][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market digested the high valuations accumulated last week, with the underlying stocks rebounding moderately while the convertible bonds lagged in following the upward trend. The structure of the valuation has changed compared to the previous central level, with the valuation in the equity - biased area remaining relatively stable, but there are signs of loosening in the low - parity debt - biased area, especially in the 90 - 100 yuan parity range. The poor performance of bank and non - bank convertible bonds this week may be an important factor dragging down the debt - biased area valuation. Given the large fluctuations in the equity market and the unclear upward trend, and the insufficient protection at the high valuation level of the debt - biased area, attention can be focused on the structural opportunities of equity - biased convertible bonds [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - The convertible bond market mainly digested high valuations this week. The underlying stocks rebounded moderately, but convertible bonds had a weak follow - up increase. The valuation structure changed, with the equity - biased area stable and the low - parity debt - biased area showing signs of valuation decline, especially in the 90 - 100 yuan parity range. The poor performance of financial convertible bonds may have dragged down the debt - biased area valuation. Amid large equity market fluctuations and an unclear upward trend, focus on the structural opportunities of equity - biased convertible bonds [2][6]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - This week, with the rebound of underlying stocks and the digestion of high convertible bond valuations, the 100 - yuan premium rate dropped to the normal level (37.1%) before the sharp increase. As of the latest data, in the scenario of retaining outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the entire market's convertible bonds was 37.1%, a single - week decline of 2.6%, and the latest quantile was at the 95.5% percentile since 2017. - The high - parity area mainly digested valuations this week, and attention should be paid to the downward shift of the valuation center in the low - parity debt - biased area. Due to the increase in the parity level and the resurgence of the call expectation, the conversion premium rate in the 130 - 140 yuan parity range declined the most and basically returned to the previous normal level. However, both the conversion premium rate and the bottom - up premium rate in the low - parity debt - biased area declined, with a relatively larger decline in the 90 - 100 yuan parity range. - The median price of convertible bonds and the yield to maturity were reported at 131.11 yuan and - 6.54% respectively, a change of - 0.28 yuan and - 0.13% from last week. Currently, the quantile levels are at the 97.60 and 1.30 percentiles since 2017 [5][7][12]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, Zhongneng, Wei 24, and Zhongqi Convertible Bonds announced redemptions, and 1 convertible bond announced non - redemption, with a forced redemption rate of 75%. Currently, there are 19 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not yet delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of the forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones is 7 billion yuan. There are currently 37 convertible bonds in the redemption process, 8 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 13 are expected to issue trigger redemption announcements [19][20]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Tianneng and Lanfan Convertible Bonds proposed downward revisions. As of the latest, 101 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 2 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement has been made, 37 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 have issued board of directors' pre - plans for downward revision but have not yet gone to the shareholders' meeting [23]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Qiaqia Convertible Bond issued a conditional put option announcement. As of the latest, 5 convertible bonds are accumulating put option trigger days, among which 1 proposed a downward revision and 4 are in the non - downward - revision period [26]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There was no convertible bond issuance this week. Maolai and Ruike Convertible Bonds have been issued and are awaiting listing. As of the latest, there are 9 convertible bonds in the approval - for - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 7.4 billion yuan; and 6 convertible bonds in the listing - committee - approved progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 7.5 billion yuan [28].

Core Points - The State-Owned Enterprise Reform Index (399974) closed at 1841.64 points, up 0.22%, with a trading volume of 863.26 billion and a turnover rate of 0.48% [1] - Among the index constituents, 63 stocks rose, led by Dongfang Electric with a 5.56% increase, while 33 stocks fell, with China Merchants Shekou leading the decline at 2.63% [1] Index Constituents Summary - The top ten constituents of the State-Owned Enterprise Reform Index include: - Zijin Mining: Weight 3.49%, Latest Price 28.58, Market Cap 759.86 billion [1] - China Merchants Bank: Weight 3.06%, Latest Price 42.95, Market Cap 1083.19 billion [1] - Yangtze Power: Weight 3.00%, Latest Price 27.98, Market Cap 684.62 billion [1] - Industrial Bank: Weight 2.99%, Latest Price 21.11, Market Cap 446.75 billion [1] - North Huachuang: Weight 2.93%, Latest Price 427.90, Market Cap 310.00 billion [1] - Wenzhou Haidao: Weight 2.93%, Latest Price 19.16, Market Cap 337.77 billion [1] - CITIC Securities: Weight 2.81%, Latest Price 27.59, Market Cap 408.90 billion [1] - Wugong Liquid: Weight 2.74%, Latest Price 117.85, Market Cap 457.45 billion [1] - China Shipbuilding: Weight 2.47%, Latest Price 34.37, Market Cap 258.66 billion [1] - Zhongke Shuguang: Weight 2.32%, Latest Price 99.16, Market Cap 145.08 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The net outflow of main funds from the index constituents totaled 788 million, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 768 million [3] - Notable capital flows include: - China Merchants Bank: Main net inflow 325 million, retail net inflow 35.88 million [3] - Zijin Mining: Main net inflow 151 million, retail net inflow 213 million [3] - Yangtze Power: Main net inflow 143 million, retail net outflow 11.30 million [3] - China Shipbuilding: Main net inflow 129 million, retail net outflow 52.74 million [3]