Report Industry Investment Ratings - Paper pulp: ★★★ - Sugar: ★★★ - Apple: ★★★ - Timber: ★★★ - Natural rubber: ★★★ - 20 - number rubber: ★★★ - Butadiene rubber: ★★☆ [4] Core Views - The cotton market has strong support from low commercial inventories and stable demand, but short - term upside is limited. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak. Apple market has increased long - short divergence, and the focus is on de - stocking. Natural rubber supply is decreasing, and synthetic rubber supply is stable. Pulp prices may fluctuate in the medium - term. Timber prices are supported by low inventories. [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures have been fluctuating recently. Although new cotton production has increased significantly this year, commercial inventories are not high and sales progress is fast, providing support. Demand is stable in the off - season, and the focus is on the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. Spinning mills' raw material demand is resilient, and finished product inventories are low. The industry can consider hedging opportunities, and the current operation is to wait and see. As of November 30, national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, and as of December 4, the cumulative processing volume was 5.794 million tons. [1] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production remains high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand have started crushing, and sugar production is expected to increase. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is weak. In November, Guangxi's sugar production was slow, but the 25/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi is expected to have a relatively good output. Overall, sugar prices are expected to be weak. [2] Apple - Futures prices are fluctuating at high levels. Spot prices are stable. Apple sales are in the off - season, and cold - storage transactions are average. As of December 5, national cold - storage apple inventory was 7.2438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.24%. The market's trading logic has shifted to demand, and the focus is on future de - stocking. [3] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Natural rubber RU futures prices fell slightly, 20 - number rubber NR futures prices fluctuated, and butadiene rubber BR futures prices declined. Global natural rubber supply is entering the decreasing period, and synthetic rubber supply is stable. Natural rubber inventories are increasing, and synthetic rubber inventories are decreasing. The cost has strong support, and the market sentiment is cautious. Consider cross - variety arbitrage opportunities. [5] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures rose slightly. As of December 4, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.101 million tons, a decrease of 71,000 tons from the previous period. In November, China imported 3.246 million tons of pulp, a year - on - year increase of 440,000 tons. The mid - term trend may be range - bound. [6] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices in Rizhao decreased by 10 yuan. Supply prices decreased, and short - term arrivals will decrease. As of December 5, the average daily outbound volume of 13 national ports was 66,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 5,300 cubic meters. The total national port log inventory was 2.88 million cubic meters, a decrease of 90,000 cubic meters from the previous period. Low inventories support prices, and the current operation is to wait and see. [7]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 9 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/9 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 8012 | 40 | 0.50% | 67,311 | 3.27% | 28,052 | 4.02% | | PK510 | 8222 | 36 | 0.44% | 66 | -10.81% | 765 | 4.37% | | PK601 | 8070 | 14 | 0.17% | 22,817 | -29.90% | 57,469 | -10.80% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7800 | 8200 | 8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oil and Fat Industry - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in a volatile adjustment. There are concerns about inventory growth and weak December exports. It is oscillating around 4,100 ringgit, waiting for the MPOB supply - demand report. Domestic Dalian palm oil futures may weaken under the influence of Malaysian palm oil, with a possible decline to seek support at 8,500 yuan. - The market expects an increase in the US soybean ending inventory, which pressures CBOT soybeans and affects CBOT soybean oil. The decline of BMD palm oil also drags down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, the decline of international related varieties has a greater impact on Dalian soybean oil. Factory开机率 has decreased, but the inventory change is not significant due to limited downstream demand [1]. 2.2 Pig Industry - Spot prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Although large - scale enterprises still have significant sales pressure, the increasing demand for southern curing and the potential entry of secondary fattening may support prices. However, the overall large - scale production increase pattern remains unchanged. - The futures market is affected by a positive macro - atmosphere. Bullish funds are actively entering the market, and the futures may maintain a slightly stronger trend in the short term [3]. 2.3 Meal and Bean Industry - The US soybean price is in a correction, and China's policy - based procurement is uncertain. The domestic meal market remains in a loose pattern, and the single - side price is under pressure. The key lies in whether US soybean purchases can meet the domestic arrival volume in March. The market outlook is weak, but the basis may strengthen [6]. 2.4 Sugar Industry - ICE raw sugar futures slightly increase, but the sufficient supply and weak demand in the spot market suppress the upward movement of futures prices. Brazil's sugar exports in early December increased. India's sugar production has increased significantly, and the overall raw sugar price is in a bearish pattern. The domestic sugar price is expected to be in a volatile and weak trend [9]. 2.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry - In the northeast region, the price is stable due to the support of inventory replenishment and policy procurement. In the north - central region, prices are firm due to the shortage of high - quality grains. On the demand side, some deep - processing enterprises are in deficit, and feed enterprises have low enthusiasm for long - term inventory building. The futures price may decline slightly in the short term, but the decline may be limited [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - ICE cotton futures closed lower. Traders are cautious before the USDA monthly supply - demand report. US cotton export sales increased significantly in the week ending November 6. Domestically, the hedging pressure on Zhengzhou cotton is increasing, but the rigid demand from the industrial downstream and the good profit situation of textile enterprises may limit the downward space. The cotton price may fluctuate within a range in the short term [15]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The supply side still has significant pressure, with a high inventory of laying hens and slow decline. The demand side lacks obvious positive factors, but the positive market sentiment provides some support. Egg prices are expected to be weak with limited downward space [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry 3.1.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,600 yuan, the futures price (Y2601) decreased by 0.44% to 8,230 yuan, and the basis increased by 10.78% to 370 yuan. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong decreased by 0.57% to 8,690 yuan, the futures price (P2601) decreased by 0.73% to 8,706 yuan, and the basis increased by 46.67% to - 16 yuan. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 1.00% to 8,960 yuan, the futures price (OI601) decreased by 1.21% to 9,502 yuan, and the basis increased by 4.30% to 388 yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Changes - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 6.45% to 198 yuan, the palm oil 01 - 05 spread decreased by 50.00% to 4 yuan, and the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread increased by 8.06% to 228 yuan. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The spot soybean - palm oil spread increased by 35.71% to - 90 yuan, the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread increased by 1.76% to - 670 yuan, the spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 7.19% to 1,290 yuan, and the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread decreased by 5.92% to 1,272 yuan [1]. 3.2 Pig Industry 3.2.1 Futures Indicators - The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 increased by 1.27% to 11,955 yuan/ton, and the price of 2603 increased by 2.71% to 11,385 yuan/ton. The 3 - 5 spread increased by 20.83% to - 570 yuan. The main contract positions increased by 81.80% to 151,512, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 108 [3]. 3.2.2 Spot Indicators - Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. The daily slaughter volume of sample points increased by 0.07% to 217,041 heads, the weekly white - strip price remained unchanged at 18.21 yuan, the weekly piglet price remained unchanged at 17.00 yuan/kg, the weekly sow price remained unchanged at 32.47 yuan, the weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.46% to 129.82 kg, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 13.31% to - 168 yuan/head, the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit decreased by 4.25% to - 259 yuan/head, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% to 3,990 million heads [3]. 3.3 Meal and Bean Industry 3.3.1 Price Changes - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.65% to 3,040 yuan, and the futures price (M2605) decreased by 1.52% to 2,778 yuan. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price (RM2605) decreased by 1.47% to 2,342 yuan. - **Soybean**: The warehouse receipt of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged at 15,766 [6]. 3.3.2 Spread Changes - The soybean meal 05 - 09 spread decreased by 2.61% to - 3 yuan, the rapeseed meal 05 - 09 spread increased by 4.35% to - 66 yuan, the spot oil - meal ratio increased by 0.66% to 2.83, and the 2605 soybean - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 1.80% to 436 yuan [6]. 3.4 Sugar Industry 3.4.1 Futures Market - The price of sugar 2601 increased by 0.64% to 5,337 yuan/ton, the price of 2605 increased by 0.21% to 5,244 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.07% to 14.83 cents/pound. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 32.86% to 93 yuan/ton. The main contract positions decreased by 8.69% to 289,716, the number of warehouse receipts increased to 181, and the effective forecast increased by 714.21% to 1,490 [9]. 3.4.2 Spot Market - Spot prices in Nanning remained unchanged at 5,360 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 0.37% to 5,320 yuan. The basis in Nanning decreased by 8.66% to 116 yuan, and in Kunming decreased by 28.97% to 76 yuan. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) decreased by 0.37% to 4,079 yuan, and (outside quota) decreased by 0.39% to 5,168 yuan [9]. 3.4.3 Industry Situation - National sugar production increased by 12.03% to 1,116.21 million tons, sales increased by 9.17% to 1,048.00 million tons, the national sales ratio decreased by 2.60% to 93.90%, and the industrial inventory decreased by 41.20% to 68.21 million tons. Sugar imports increased by 37.50% to 55.00 million tons [9]. 3.5 Corn and Corn Starch Industry 3.5.1 Corn - The price of corn 2601 decreased by 1.48% to 2,261 yuan, the basis increased by 97.14% to 69 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 144.44% to - 4 yuan. The northern - southern trade profit decreased by 20.41% to 39 yuan, the import profit decreased by 15.13% to 314 yuan, the number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing enterprises in the morning decreased by 13.64% to 399, the positions decreased by 2.25% to 2,354,124, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 57,705 [11]. 3.5.2 Corn Starch - The price of corn starch 2601 decreased by 1.51% to 2,549 yuan, the basis increased by 1950.00% to 41 yuan, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 40.74% to - 38 yuan, the 01 spread between starch and corn decreased by 1.71% to 288 yuan, the Shandong starch profit decreased by 25.00% to 6 yuan, the positions decreased by 2.52% to 333,585 [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry 3.6.1 Futures Market - The price of cotton 2605 increased by 0.04% to 13,725 yuan/ton, the price of 2601 remained unchanged at 13,750 yuan/ton, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.33% to 63.74 cents/pound. The 5 - 1 spread increased by 16.67% to - 25 yuan. The main contract positions decreased by 1.75% to 489,062 hands, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.62% to 2,753, and the effective forecast increased by 8.02% to 3,004 [15]. 3.6.2 Spot Market - The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B decreased by 0.17% to 14,847 yuan, the CC Index of 3128B decreased by 0.09% to 15,009 yuan, and the FC Index of M: 1% decreased by 0.08% to 12,843 yuan [15]. 3.6.3 Industry Situation - Commercial inventory increased by 28.7% to 468.36 million tons, industrial inventory increased by 0.9% to 93.96 million tons, imports decreased by 10.0% to 9.00 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.8% to 32.20 million tons [15]. 3.7 Egg Industry 3.7.1 Futures and Spot Prices - The price of the egg 01 contract increased by 1.15% to 3,153 yuan/500KG, and the price of 02 increased by 0.80% to 3,038 yuan/500KG. The egg - producing area price increased by 0.41% to 2.98 yuan/FT, the basis decreased by 15.45% to - 178 yuan/500KG, and the 1 - 2 spread increased by 11.65% to 115 yuan [19]. 3.7.2 Related Indicators - The price of laying hens increased by 5.56% to 2.85 yuan/feather, the price of culled chickens increased by 1.58% to 3.86 yuan/FT, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.90% to 2.40, and the breeding profit increased by 20.35% to - 22.62 yuan/feather [19].

农产品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一，玉米减仓下行，玉米近月 2601 合约减仓调整，资金向 3 月和 5 月合约转 | 震荡下行 | | | 移。周一，在玉米 1 月合约下跌拖累下，远期合约跟随下跌，期价呈现高位调整 | | | | 表现。现货市场方面，周末华北地区深加工企业门前到货量一般，玉米价格稳中 | | | | 偏强运行。东北地区玉米价格持续上涨，市场短期看涨情绪较高，但华北地区整 | | | | 体有其固有的节奏，目前农户售粮节奏依然保持相对缓慢，市场供应变现为阶段 | | | 玉米 | 性的宽松和收紧，深加工企业玉米价格维持窄幅调整，变动幅度有限。周末销区 | | | | 市场玉米价格基本维持稳定。上周经过连续涨价后，销区下游企业采购力继续减 | | | | 弱，高价玉米成交一般，市场多维持观望心态。周末整体市场无较大波动，上涨 | | | | 情绪减弱。技术上，玉米 3、5 月合约处于 5 月中旬形成价格压力带，期价上行 | | | | 遇阻，动力不足。短期来看，玉米呈现技术调整要求， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation may not be too loose after the seasonal pressure, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] - **Sugar**: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills at the beginning of the crushing season have the willingness to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of the capital side on the market should be noted [7] - **Pulp**: Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side may limit the upward space of pulp prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market [10] Group 3: Summary by Cotton - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,750 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,847 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,009 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Export: In October, Australia's cotton export volume was about 206,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.8% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative export volume was about 549,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. China was the largest export destination, accounting for 32.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA significantly increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, while the consumption only slightly increased, leading to a significant rise in the global ending inventory. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased, and there is a possibility of export target reduction. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range [2] - Domestic: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. With the approaching end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak, but the improvement of spinning profit limits the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound, and optimistic in the long - term after seasonal pressure. Focus on the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Summary by Sugar - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5337 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Export: Brazil exported 3.3023 million tons of sugar and molasses in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59% [4] - Sugar mill operation: From December 6th to 8th, 6 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production. As of now, 55 sugar mills have started production in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi, 13 less than the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: The global high - yield pattern suppresses the raw sugar market, but the downward space is limited in the short - term, and there is no sign of reversal in the short - and medium - term [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high. The control of syrup has become stricter, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term decline is limited, but the impact of the capital side should be noted [7] Group 5: Summary by Pulp - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5392 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: There are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed a paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will have a temporary shutdown [9] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October, showing some improvement in demand. In China, there is over - capacity in the paper industry, low paper mill operating rates, and high port inventories [9] Strategy - Neutral. The upward space of pulp prices may be limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts [10]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 12 月 9 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

| | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 09 日星期周二 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 8 日，美豆新作种植面积预估增加，对华出口放缓，美豆油下跌带动国内豆油 | | | | | 走弱，澳菜籽开榨在即，菜籽油跌幅进一步加速，棕榈油跟随下下跌。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8032 元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌 0.59%，日增仓 7193 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 7952 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.75%，日增 | | | | | 仓 2803 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8702 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.6 ...

一、贵金属期货 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型基于第三方数据库自动发布，任何在本文出现的信 息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成 个人投资建议。受限于第三方数据库质量等问题，我们无法对数据的真实性及完整性进行分辨或核验， 因此本文内容可能出现不准确、不完整、误导性的内容或信息，具体以公司公告为准。如有疑问，请联 系biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：喜娜AI 纽约期金价格呈现波动走势，12月9日早间突破4220美元/盎司，日内涨0.05%；而在前一交易日（12月8 日）晚间，纽约期金曾失守4210美元/盎司，日内跌幅达0.79%。 现货黄金同步承压，12月8日晚间失守4180美元/盎司，日内跌0.39%。 此外，白银连续主力合约日内跌1%，现报13563.00元。 二、能源与航运期货 原油市场表现疲软，WTI原油12月9日凌晨失守59美元/桶，日内跌1.84%。 美国天然气期货价格大幅下跌，因气温降幅预测收窄且产量接近纪录高位，12月8日晚间跌幅达6%，随 后继续下探，12月9日早间跌超9.00%，现报3.849美元/百 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间12月8日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌，大 豆期货跌1.04%报1093.75美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.17%报444.00美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货跌0.23%报 534.50美分/蒲式耳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index experienced a decline of 0.60%, closing at 29.8908 points, despite reaching a daily high of 30.1739 points earlier in the day [1] Group 1: Commodity Futures - CBOT corn futures decreased by 0.17% [1] - CBOT wheat futures fell by 0.23% [1] - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 1.04%, settling at $10.9375 per bushel after hitting a daily high of $11.0725 [1] - Soymeal futures declined by 0.22% [1] - Soy oil futures decreased by 0.99% [1] Group 2: Livestock Futures - CBOT lean hog futures increased by 0.09% [1] - Live cattle futures fell by 0.14% [1] - Feeder cattle futures dropped by 0.94% [1]