Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the inventory has declined significantly but remains above one million tons, higher than the same period last year. The good situation of imported soybean auctions has led to a relatively loose supply in the domestic market recently. The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure will continue. Attention should be paid to the South American soybean harvest and US soybean export [2] - For corn, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking has gradually begun. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased. The inventory of north - south ports has also slightly increased, but the current price at the southern port is high, and feed enterprises have not carried out large - scale replenishment, still mainly purchasing on demand. The current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2727 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2221 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton or 1.51% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3160 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 3060 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 3070 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2420 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: As of January 14, the sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Argentina was 93.9% complete, up from 88.3% a week ago. The 2025/26 soybean production in Brazil is expected to reach 179.28 million tons, 520,000 tons higher than the November forecast [1] Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2281 yuan/ton, with no change; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2555 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2620 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: As of January 14, the planting area of the 2025/26 corn crop in Argentina was 91.7% of the total expected area of 7.8 million hectares, up from 89.1% a week ago. Russia's seaborne grain exports in December were 4.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total seaborne grain exports in the first half of this year dropped to nearly 30 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [3] Market Analysis - Soybean Meal: The supply in the domestic market is relatively loose. The high - yield expectation of Brazilian soybeans is further consolidated, and future supply pressure will continue [2] - Corn: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking has started, but feed enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The current inventory is lower than the historical average [4][5] Strategy - Soybean Meal: Cautiously bearish [3] - Corn: Neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views 1. Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4,050 ringgit. After the short - term oscillation, a new breakthrough direction will be chosen. If Malaysian palm oil breaks through 4,200 ringgit, domestic palm oil futures may follow suit [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA is expected to finalize the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) in early March. The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased last week, but the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, and the basis quotation has limited fluctuation space [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The improvement in China - Canada trade relations brings hope for rapeseed imports, but it cannot relieve the short - term supply shortage. The rapeseed oil futures and basis are expected to have limited downward space and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term [1]. 2. Cotton USDA weekly signing reached a high for the year, and the US cotton production was slightly reduced. Zhengzhou cotton has support from cotton consumption demand but is also restricted by factors such as compressed downstream profits and the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference. Short - term cotton prices are expected to continue the adjustment trend [2]. 3. Sugar Internationally, the Brazilian sugar production in late December decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production increased. India's sugar production is strong, and Thailand's sugar - making season is slow. Domestically, the spot market is in the peak season, but the consumption fails to meet expectations. Sugar prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3]. 4. Red Dates Affected by weak demand and pessimistic market sentiment, futures prices are under pressure. The Spring Festival peak - season effect is not obvious, and the market is in a state of active de - capacity. The futures market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. 5. Apples The procurement in the production areas has started, but the transaction is light, and the price is weakly stable. The inventory in the sales areas is high, and the demand is weak. The futures market is affected by weak demand and cooling capital sentiment, and the futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6][9]. 6. Corn The supply of corn in the short term is tight, and the downstream demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, which supports the corn price. However, the increasing policy - related corn supply limits the price increase. Corn prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [13]. 7. Pigs The weekend spot pig prices are strong, and the breeding side is reluctant to sell. There is still some second - fattening, but the enthusiasm is limited. The supply - demand game is intensifying. The futures market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival demand, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [16][17]. 8. Meal The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is abundant, and the auction suppresses the market. However, the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, and there is uncertainty in the arrival rhythm. The soybean meal inventory has started to decline. The soybean meal futures are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the support around 2,700 [20]. 9. Eggs The decline in the laying - hen inventory has slowed down, and the market's overall shipment pressure has been relieved. The Spring Festival stocking is over, and the market is afraid of high prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range [23]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On January 15, 2026, the average price of soybeans in Jiangsu decreased by 0.59% compared with the previous day; the price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong decreased by 1.88%; the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 0.91%. The prices of related futures contracts also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The soybean oil inventory decreased by 68,800 tons last week; the palm oil warehouse receipts decreased by 900; the rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 80 [1]. - **Spread Changes**: The soybean - palm oil spot spread increased by 39.93%; the rapeseed - soybean oil spot spread decreased by 2.92% [1]. 2. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the cotton 2605 contract decreased by 0.31%, and the cotton 2609 contract decreased by 0.24%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 2.62% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton decreased by 0.49%, and the CC Index: 3128B decreased by 0.32% [2]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 4.6%, and the fabric inventory days increased by 4.4% [2]. 3. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the sugar 2605 contract decreased by 0.27%, and the sugar 2609 contract decreased by 0.13%. The ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 2.74% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning sugar price decreased by 0.19%, and the Kunming sugar price remained unchanged [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production decreased by 16.43%, the cumulative sales decreased by 37.18%, and the industrial inventory increased by 10.82% [3]. 4. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the red date 2605 contract decreased by 0.68%, the 2607 contract decreased by 0.67%, and the 2609 contract decreased by 0.60% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Cangzhou super - grade red date price decreased by 0.74%, and the first - grade red date price decreased by 2.44% [4]. - **Inventory**: The open interest increased by 3.84%, the warehouse receipts increased by 0.83%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 7.69% [4]. 5. Apples - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the apple 2605 contract decreased by 2.05%, and the 2610 contract decreased by 0.92%. The open interest decreased by 8.03% [6]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival volume at major fruit wholesale markets increased, and the national cold - storage inventory decreased by 2.25% [6]. 6. Corn - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the corn 2603 contract's basis decreased by 7.25%, and the 3 - 7 spread increased by 50.00%. The open interest increased by 0.45%, and the warehouse receipts increased by 4.61% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port FAS price decreased by 0.21%, and the Shekou Port market price remained unchanged [13]. - **Industry Situation**: In the Northeast, the price is strongly supported; in North China, the price has a small increase. The demand side has a certain inventory - building intention [13]. 7. Pigs - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the main pig futures contract increased by 44.87%, the 2605 contract decreased by 1.73%, and the 2603 contract decreased by 2.30%. The open interest decreased by 4.40%, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 46.87% [16]. - **Spot Market**: The pig prices in various regions showed an upward trend, and the slaughter volume decreased by 0.52% [16]. - **Industry Situation**: The self - breeding profit increased by 164.04%, and the purchased - piglet breeding profit increased by 2193.07%. The fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [16]. 8. Meal - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the soybean meal 2605 contract remained unchanged, the rapeseed meal 2605 contract decreased by 1.51%, the soybean 1 main contract decreased by 0.07%, and the soybean 2 main contract decreased by 0.15% [20]. - **Spot Market**: The Jiangsu soybean meal price remained unchanged, the Jiangsu rapeseed meal price decreased by 3.39%, the Harbin soybean price remained unchanged, and the Jiangsu imported soybean price remained unchanged [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic soybean and soybean meal supply is abundant, but the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low [20]. 9. Eggs - **Futures Market**: On January 20, 2026, the egg 03 contract decreased by 1.60%, and the 04 contract decreased by 1.23% [23]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price increased by 1.71%, the egg - chick price increased by 3.45%, the culled - hen price increased by 7.50%, and the feed - to - egg ratio decreased by 3.42% [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The laying - hen inventory decline has slowed down, and the Spring Festival stocking is over [23].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The US biofuel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Currently, it is difficult to operate in the oil market, and no trend direction has been formed. Given the strengthening of the bottom of soybean and palm oil, it is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset of buying on dips. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the rebound strength and hold short - term long positions [2] - For double - meal futures, the 05 contract maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading, and the 09 contract may gradually decline. Consider gradually laying out short positions for the 09 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the commodity market cooled down. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector, while palm oil and soybean oil showed resistance. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,996 yuan/ton, down 0.25% day - on - day, with an increase of 584 lots in positions [1] b. Important Information - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month from South America [1] c. Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation pressured international crude oil prices, but the US biofuel policy boosted US soybean oil prices. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan and Malaysia's reduction of export tariffs affected the palm oil market [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, there were both positive and negative factors. For palm oil, the cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan led to inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market, but then the price rebounded [2] d. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - For arbitrage trading, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] 2. Double - Meal Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with no change in the closing price day - on - day, and a decrease of 24,449 lots in positions [2] b. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, with an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton [2][3] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 178 million tons [3] c. Market Logic - Externally, the Chinese tariff adjustment on Canadian rapeseed slightly dragged down the protein meal market, but the Brazilian discount remained firm. The main contract of domestic protein meal futures oscillated in the short term [4] - Domestically, the policy of reducing tariffs on Canadian rapeseed was a major negative factor. The spot market was supported by terminal inventory building before the Spring Festival [4] d. Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract of double - meal, maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading and trade within the day. Gradually lay out short positions for the 09 contract. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4] - No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term negative factors are limited, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production cuts [1] - Soybean oil: There are insufficient themes for US soybeans, and the rebound height is limited [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 8,648 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - time closing price was 8,710 yuan/ton with a 0.72% change; soybean oil's daytime closing price was 7,996 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and night - time closing price was 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.13% change; rapeseed oil's daytime closing price was 8,902 yuan/ton with a - 1.78% change, and night - time closing price was 8,922 yuan/ton with a 0.22% change. Malaysian palm oil's daytime closing price was 4,054 ringgit/ton with a 1.86% change, and night - time closing price was 4,093 ringgit/ton with a 0.64% change. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 52.51 cents/pound with a - 0.19% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 358,548 lots with a decrease of 212,017 lots, and open interest was 413,122 lots with a decrease of 1,957 lots; soybean oil's trading volume was 209,449 lots with a decrease of 155,259 lots, and open interest was 716,725 lots with an increase of 584 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume was 367,634 lots with a decrease of 95,047 lots, and open interest was 253,596 lots with a decrease of 16,032 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,900 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan decrease; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,035 US dollars/ton with a 15 - dollar increase [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 52 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 604 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 998 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 254 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared to 389 yuan/ton two trading days ago; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 652 yuan/ton, compared to - 658 yuan/ton previously; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 26 yuan/ton, compared to 12 yuan/ton previously; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 120 yuan/ton, compared to 130 yuan/ton previously; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 21 yuan/ton, compared to 53 yuan/ton previously [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - It is expected that the average price of palm oil in 2026 will be 4,125 ringgit/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 2.55%. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.61%. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.39% [2] 3.3 Brazilian Agricultural Situation - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 2%, a 1.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and slightly higher than 1.7% in the same period last year. The soybean harvest in Mato Grosso is in the leading position, while the harvest in Paraná is lagging behind the historical average. The planting progress of second - crop corn has reached 1.1% of the estimated total area, compared to 0.3% in the same period last year. The harvest rate of first - crop corn is 1.6%, significantly lower than 4.1% in the same period last year [5] - It is expected that Brazil's soybean exports in 2026 will be 105 million tons (last year's exports were 108.2 million tons), the soybean crushing volume will be 60 million tons (higher than the previous year's estimated 58.5 million tons), the total soybean supply will reach 183.79 million tons, a 5% increase from the previous year. The estimated soybean meal production in 2026 is 47.4 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous year, and the estimated soybean meal exports are 24.7 million tons [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Palm oil: Short - term negatives are limited, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production cuts [2]. - Soybean oil: There is a lack of US soybean themes, and the rebound height is limited [2]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans were closed overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal followed the rapeseed meal to correct [2]. - Soybean: The spot is stable, and the market is adjusted and fluctuating [2]. - Corn: It has corrected [2]. - Sugar: It is in low - level consolidation [2]. - Cotton: Wait for the adjustment to end [2]. - Eggs: The sentiment in the far - month contracts has weakened [2]. - Hogs: The spot has weakened, and the peak - season expectations have decreased [2]. - Peanuts: They are moving in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daytime closing price was 8,648 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change, and night - time closing price was 8,710 yuan/ton with a 0.72% change. Soybean oil's daytime closing price was 7,996 yuan/ton with a - 0.25% change, and night - time closing price was 8,006 yuan/ton with a 0.13% change [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Reuters survey shows that the average price of palm oil in 2026 is expected to be 4,125 ringgit per ton, a 2.55% year - on - year decrease. Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.75 million tons, a 2.61% year - on - year decrease. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to reach a record 51.2 million tons, a 0.39% year - on - year increase [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensity are both 0 [9]. Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2605's daytime closing price was 4321 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% change, night - time closing price was 4316 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change. DCE soybean meal 2605's daytime closing price was 2727 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, night - time closing price was 2715 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Due to the Martin Luther King Day, the US market was closed on Monday, and there was no CBOT agricultural product daily review. As of January 15, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 2% [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensity are both 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2603's daytime closing price was 2,281 yuan/ton with a - 0.48% change, night - time closing price was 2,271 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change. C2605's daytime closing price was 2,272 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change, night - time closing price was 2,266 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port - collection price was 2280 - 2290 yuan/ton; the container first - grade grain port - collection price was 2330 - 2350 yuan/ton, unchanged from yesterday. The Guangdong Shekou bulk shipping quotation was 2420 - 2440 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton decrease from yesterday [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [15]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 14.96 cents/pound with a 0.39 change. The mainstream spot price was 5340 yuan/ton with a - 10 change. The futures main - contract price was 5244 yuan/ton with a - 14 change [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of January 15, the 25/26 Indian sugar production increased by 22% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.91 million tons in December, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons) [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is - 1 [19]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2605's daytime closing price was 14,545 yuan/ton with a - 0.31% change, night - time closing price was 14465 yuan/ton with a - 0.55% change. CY2603's daytime closing price was 20,510 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change, night - time closing price was 20420 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% change [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot trading was generally average, and the cotton yarn price was generally stable, but the market sentiment was weak [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 1 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2602's closing price was 2,998 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.93% change. Egg 2603's closing price was 3,023 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.34% change [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [30]. Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13430 yuan/ton. The Sichuan spot price was 12950 yuan/ton. The Guangdong spot price was 14060 yuan/ton. Hog 2603's price was 11705 yuan/ton, Hog 2605's price was 11945 yuan/ton, Hog 2607's price was 12605 yuan/ton [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hog trend intensity is - 2 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton. PK603's closing price was 7,890 yuan/ton with a 0.69% change. PK605's closing price was 7,842 yuan/ton with a 0.28% change [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts was basically stable, and some large - peanut producing areas were slightly weaker. In Jilin and Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was basically stable, and the purchase volume increased slightly [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the agricultural products market shows a complex situation with different trends for each variety. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are likely to be weak or strong in different periods [5][6][10]. - For example, in the short - term, log prices are expected to be volatile and strong, while sugar prices are expected to be volatile and weak [22][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats will fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic policies are relatively loose. The US Department of Agriculture raised the global soybean production and inventory in 25/26. The inventory of palm oil in Malaysia increased, and the market sentiment of rapeseed oil was affected by trade agreements and bio - diesel news. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil will fluctuate, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to consider phased buying hedging after corrections and the strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and soybean meal is testing the lower support. - **Logic**: Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds is decreasing. Domestically, the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact, but factors such as pre - holiday stocking support the price of soybean meal. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate, and rapeseed meal will fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Snow disrupts logistics, and prices are still supported. - **Logic**: The supply is in a tight balance in the short - term. Snow disrupts logistics, and the supply is tight. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a positive impact on prices. - **Outlook**: The market will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [10]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Snow boosts the spot price, but the futures market still has inventory pressure. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - month slaughter rhythm is slow, and snow drives up the price. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to improve in the second half of 2026 [12]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The macro - driving force weakens, and the market enters a wide - range fluctuation. - **Logic**: The rubber price is affected by the overall commodity adjustment. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the demand is weak after the price rise. - **Outlook**: It will return to a wide - range fluctuation in the short - term and maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium - term [15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It is in a corrective adjustment, and the market closes down. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is a lack of upward momentum, but the downside space is limited due to tight raw materials. The medium - term bullish logic remains. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is pressure in the short - term, and it will be volatile and strong in the medium - term [17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It continues to adjust, and the cotton price closes down. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the cotton price is in an adjustment period after the previous rise. The new cotton is in the concentrated listing period, and the consumption is relatively good. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the supply in the domestic market is increasing. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of hardwood pulp turns down, and the fundamental concerns increase. - **Logic**: The import cost is rising, but the demand is entering the off - season, and the liquidity of softwood pulp is abundant. The hardwood pulp price is showing signs of decline. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak in the short - term [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: The commodity is adjusting, and double - glued paper is running weakly. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment declines, and the futures market is under pressure from warehouse receipts. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak [20][21]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Affected by the black sector, logs fall below the valuation. - **Logic**: The futures price is affected by the black sector and falls into the low - valuation area. The fundamentals are improving marginally. The delivery pressure in some areas is weakening, and the spot price in Jiangsu is rising. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and strong in the short - term, and the 03 contract can be operated in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [22]. 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index shows different trends. The commodity 20 index increased by 0.20%, the industrial products index decreased by 0.28%, and the agricultural products index decreased by 0.74% on January 19, 2026 [182][184].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic rapeseed meal market is facing significant challenges due to a strong cold wave affecting major rapeseed production areas and breakthroughs in China-Canada trade negotiations [2][5] Weather Impact - The cold wave has led to a decline in rapeseed meal futures, with prices dropping 2.37% to below 2200 yuan/ton, highlighting market sensitivity to dual variables [2][9] - Analysts indicate that the current growth stage of rapeseed varies significantly by region, with most still in the seedling stage, and only a small portion in Chongqing and Sichuan entering the sensitive bolting stage [3][10] - Historical data shows that cold weather in February 2023 caused a 3%-5% decrease in rapeseed yield in Hubei and Anhui, but the overall yield remained high in 2024 due to improved management [2][3] Trade Policy Changes - China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed to approximately 15% starting March 1, with anti-discrimination tariffs on rapeseed meal suspended until the end of the year, significantly lowering import costs [5][12] - The previous import tariffs were as high as 75.8%, and this adjustment is expected to improve the profitability of rapeseed imports, aiding in supply recovery [5][12] Market Dynamics - Current domestic rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at lower levels compared to previous years, influenced by prior import stagnation and weak demand during the aquatic feed consumption off-season [5][12] - The cold wave's impact on total production is expected to be limited, but it may increase field maintenance costs, potentially raising the breakeven price for domestic rapeseed [13] Future Outlook - If the cold wave does not lead to significant production reductions, rapeseed meal prices may lack support for a rebound, maintaining a weak market in the short term [6][13] - Analysts suggest monitoring the recovery of temperatures and precipitation patterns post-cold wave, as a decline in quality supply could lead to structural market changes [6][13]

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on January 19, with raw sugar futures increasing by 0.20% to 14.99 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures decreased by 0.06% to 64.62 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures rose by 0.24% to $5088.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures fell by 0.06% to 355.10 cents per pound [1]

玉米系产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 0 | 2281 | | 2555 | 0 | | | 玉米月间价差(5-9):(日,元/吨) 吨) -3 玉米淀粉月间价差(3-5):(日,元/吨) | -21 | | -35 | 0 | | 期货市场 | 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) 5474 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 1073216 | | 196443 | -558 | | | 9194 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -143698 | | -40964 | 946 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 2000 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) 手) | 45417 | | 12477 | 0 | | | 主力合约CS-C价差(日,元/吨) 0 | 327 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit sectors present complex market conditions with varying supply - demand dynamics and price trends. Each commodity has its own unique market logic and trading strategies, and investors need to make decisions based on these factors[3][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it's recommended to hold long positions cautiously with support at 8800 - 8900 and pressure at 11000 - 11500. For Red Date 2605, short - term long positions are recommended with support at 8700 - 9000 and pressure at 9500 - 9800[19]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2605, light - position short - term long positions are recommended with support at 5200 - 5230 and pressure at 5350 - 5380. For Pulp 2605, trading within the range with a bearish bias is advised, with support at 5300 - 5350 and pressure at 5550 - 5700. For Offset Printing Paper 2605, range trading is recommended with support at 4000 - 4100 and pressure at 4300 - 4350. For Cotton 2605, hold long positions cautiously with support at 13500 - 13600 and pressure at 15400 - 15500[19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, fresh apple exports were about 121,600 tons, up 51.28% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 655,570 tons, down 17800 tons week - on - week and 48800 tons year - on - year[20]. - **Spot Market**: This week, the mainstream transaction prices in production areas were stable, with increased cold - storage transactions and packaging. In Shandong, the cold - storage prices were stable, and the number of buyers increased. In Shaanxi, the prices were stable, and the cold - storage packaging volume increased. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was similar to last week, the overall sales were stable, and citrus had an impact on apple sales[20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Red Date Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, down 349 tons week - on - week (2.23%) and up 41.27% year - on - year. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market is expected to enter a peak sales period with the approaching of the festival[23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market - In 2025, the actual arrival of out - quota raw sugar in China was 2.2161 million tons, up 1.2823 million tons year - on - year. - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season as of January 12, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 21.18% year - on - year, and Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of January increased by 1.86% year - on - year[25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In December, the pulp price was stable. Some companies raised the price of BHK sent to China and other Asian markets by $20/ton, and two large pulp and paper integrated enterprises' purchases tightened the supply and pushed up the price[30]. 3.2.5 Offset Printing Paper Market The inventory days increased by 0.76% compared to last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand was weak, and the overall inventory pressure increased. The operating rate was 55.24%, up 1.02 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points[31]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market - In December 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports increased by 22.94% month - on - month and 8.35% year - on - year. - India's cotton production in the 2025 - 2026 season is expected to increase slightly by 2.4%[32]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: Apple 2605 closed at 9807, down 1.28%; Red Date 2605 closed at 9040, down 0.99%; Sugar 2605 closed at 5280, down 0.36%; Pulp 2605 closed at 5436, down 1.06%; Cotton 2605 closed at 14675, down 0.91%[32]. - **Spot Market**: Apple was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 yuan year - on - year; Red Date was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; Sugar was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 590 yuan year - on - year; Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 1000 yuan year - on - year; Offset Printing Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 500 yuan year - on - year; Cotton was 15972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan month - on - month and 1235 yuan year - on - year[40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures are provided[52][55][57]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 5 - 10 spread is 1402, with a negative month - on - month change of 39 and a positive year - on - year change of 1913, expected to be volatile and strong, and it's recommended to buy on dips. - Red Date 5 - 9 spread is - 215, with a negative month - on - month change of 25 and a positive year - on - year change of 95, and it's recommended to wait and see. - Sugar 5 - 9 spread is - 11, with a negative month - on - month change of 6 and a negative year - on - year change of 113, and it's recommended to wait and see. - Cotton 5 - 9 spread is - 150, with a negative month - on - month change of 30 and a positive year - on - year change of 20, expected to be volatile and weak, and it's recommended to sell on rallies[60]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation There is no specific text description of the futures position situation, only references to relevant figures are provided[67][71][86]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Red Date: 3211 warehouse receipts, up 232 month - on - month and down 759 year - on - year. - Sugar: 14126 warehouse receipts, up 4387 month - on - month and down 7939 year - on - year. - Pulp: 149134 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and down 196294 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9329 warehouse receipts, up 493 month - on - month and up 2812 year - on - year[93]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures are provided[96][101][107].